KANSAS (32 - 6) vs. KENTUCKY (37 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
KENTUCKY is 6-13 ATS (-8.3 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS vs. KENTUCKY
KANSAS: 11-4 Under when the total is 130 to 139.5
KENTUCKY: 16-4 Under when the total is 130 to 139.5
NCAAB Championship Game: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-6, 137)
THE STORY: Kentucky is the favorite, loaded with next-level talent throughout the lineup -- and even on the bench. Kansas is the surprise contender, the team that won its eighth consecutive regular-season conference title in what was supposed to be a "down" year. They both made it to New Orleans and survived hard-fought national semifinals to meet for the championship in a rematch for Kansas coach Bill Self and Kentucky coach John Calipari, whose Memphis team lost to Self's Jayhawks in the 2008 title game. The title tilt features two of the nation's best big men in Kentucky freshman Anthony Davis and Kansas junior Thomas Robinson, as well as two of the best defensive teams in the country.
ABOUT KANSAS (32-6): The Jayhawks are in the national championship game for the eighth time - and first since 2008 - and this appearance might be their most unlikely since the group nicknamed "Danny and the Miracles" won it all as a No. 6 seed in 1988. Senior guard Tyshawn Taylor (16.5 ppg, 4.8 apg) was the only full-time starter returning for Self at the start of the season, and though it was apparent Robinson (17.7 ppg, 11.7 rpg) had the skills to develop into a dominant post presence, the rest of Kansas' lineup was in flux. But 7-foot center Jeff Withey (9.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg) emerged as an excellent defender. With seven blocks against Ohio State on Saturday, he has a school-record 136 this season. Juniors Elijah Johnson (10.1 ppg, 3.6 apg) and Travis Releford (8.6 ppg) have teamed with Taylor to become a dynamic backcourt group.
ABOUT KENTUCKY (37-2): College basketball's all-time leader with 2,089 wins is in the national championship game for the 11th time, but amazingly the first since winning the title in 1998. The Wildcats showed they were beatable by losing the SEC tournament title game to Vanderbilt, but they've looked anything but through five games in the NCAA tournament. Saturday's 69-61 win over Louisville was Kentucky's closest test yet, but it was never really in doubt despite swingman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist playing only 23 minutes because of foul trouble and the Cardinals owning a surprising 40-33 rebounding edge. The freshman phenom Davis led the way with 18 points, 14 rebounds and five blocks. Davis needs two blocks to match the national freshman record of 182 set by Marshall's Hassan Whiteside in 2010.
TRENDS
* Kentucky is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 non-conference games.
* Kansas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games against SEC foes.
* Under is 18-4 in Kansas' last 22 NCAA tournament games.
* Over is 4-1 in Kentucky's 2012 NCAA tournament games.
TIP-INS
1. With 26 double-doubles, Robinson leads the nation and has surpassed Drew Gooden for Kansas' single-season record. With 20 double-doubles, Davis has matched DeMarcus Cousins for the Kentucky freshman record.
2. Johnson had 13 points and 10 rebounds against Ohio State for his first career double-double. He scored 11 of his 13 points in the second half, helping Kansas rally from an early 13-point deficit.
3. Kansas has led at halftime in only one of its five NCAA tournament games. The Jayhawks rallied from halftime deficits against Ohio State, N.C. State and Purdue and was tied at half against North Carolina. Kentucky is 31-0 when leading at halftime.
NCAAB Championship Game Preview
Since 1987, #1's are 5-0 SU in national title game vs #2-seed (3-2 against spread); last #2 seed to beat a #1 for national title was Louisville in '86 against Duke. Over last dozen years, favorites are 9-3 against spread in national title game.
Jayhawks have actually been outscored in the first half, if you add up all five games they've played in this tournament; Withey has to stay out of foul trouble for this to be close game. Kentucky (-6.5) won first meeting this season, beating Kansas 75-65 November 15 in NYC; game was tied 28-28 at half, but Wildcats opened second half with 13-2 run. All five starters for Kentucky scored between 12-17 points. Wildcats made 7-15 behind arc; Anthony Davis blocked seven shots. Self beat Calipari back in '08 in this spot, when Memphis lost in OT as 2-point favorite- thats last time favorite lost the national title game.
Kansas will not get stressed when they fall behind, because they've been getting behind in every game; they'll play with poise, but can they get the big guy Davis in foul trouble? Can Withey stay out of foul trouble? If I'm Bill Self, at the end of my pre-game prayer, I ask the good Lord to not let the better team win. I'll say Kentucky by nine points.
Armadillosports.com
Kentucky vs. Kansas
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The college basketball season concludes on Monday from New Orleans as Kansas (32-6 SU 19-17 ATS) and Kentucky (37-2 SU, 15-21 ATS) will meet for the national championship. Tip-off is slated for 9:20 p.m. ET and CBS will be providing national coverage.
Even though the Wildcats have lived up to their billing as the odds-on favorites to cut down the nets on Monday, oddsmakers only opened Kentucky as a 6½-point favorite over Kansas. After some healthy wagering on Sunday, the hook was cut (6) at most offshore shops but the Wynn Las Vegas and Leroy’s have remained steady on the opener.
Bettors just looking for a Kentucky win straight up can play it safe and play money-line odds of 1/3 (Bet $300 to win $100). Those expecting an upset can back Kansas at 5/2 (Bet $100 to win $250) odds.
That takes us to the main questions of the night – How does Kansas win this game? Or better yet, how does Kentucky lose? We asked those questions to Antony Dinero (+46 units), who is the top-ranked college basketball handicapper on VegasInsider.com.
He explained, “Thomas Robinson had to be relieved that his Kansas teammates got him a second opportunity to prove why he's hyped as one of the nation's top players. Don't get lost in the final stats, a 19-point night against Ohio State, because he was more hype than hero. The First Team All-American left shots short and struggled with a game plan designed to be physical with him on first touch. The Buckeyes never let him get comfortable, so he's got to play with abandon against a far superior Kentucky defense that's already shut him down once this year if Kansas is to have a chance. He'll have to be ready for bodies constantly being run at him and make smart decisions.”
“Speaking of which, the Jayhawks have to knock down shots if they're going to keep Kentucky honest. Tyshawn Taylor is stuck in a funk and no longer appears willing to shoot from the perimeter. He's 0-for-20 from 3-point range in these NCAAs, so you can understand his reluctance. Elijah Johnson is far more comfortable getting to the basket and Trevor Releford, despite making his only 3-point attempt against Ohio State, is still just 3-for-12 from beyond the arc in this tournament. Connor Teahan, the team's designated sniper, shot 1-for-4 against the Buckeyes and is just 5-for-26 in March.”
“Kentucky is undoubtedly going to gamble that the Jayhawks won't be able to consistently find the range against its defense, so count on them packing it in and making life difficult for Robinson and Jeff Withey. John Calipari whines better than most about not closing out on shooters, so you can count on defenders that are hedging in the paint to be expected to scurry back out to contest. If for some reason, the 'Cats aren't being diligent and let someone catch fire, that's one way they can be denied this coronation.”
As Dinero mentioned, Kansas did enough to rally past Ohio State for the 64-62 victory as a three-point underdog. The victory for the Jayhawks was the third time that they won by three points or less in the tournament. Bill Self’s team has helped bettors with a 3-2 mark against the spread.
Kentucky earned a spot in the championship by defeating Louisville 69-61 in Saturday’s semifinals. The Wildcats failed to cover as 8½-point favorites, which dropped their ATS record to 3-2 in the tournament. The Cardinals had a few opportunities to extend the game but decided not to foul, which was surprising on Rick Pitino’s part. These two teams met in mid-November from Madison Square Garden and Kentucky pulled away with a 75-65 victory over Kansas. The game was tied 28-28 at the break. The Wildcats outscored the Jayhawks 47-37 in the final 20 minutes to cover as 6 ½-point favorites.
The win for head coach John Calipari was his first against Kansas (1-3) but a win on Monday is far more important according to Dinero.
“Bill Self and John Calipari have met on this huge stage already, in Kansas' 75-68 OT win over Memphis for the 2008 title. The reason I'm bringing this up is that this young Kentucky team really seems to have bought in to everything Calipari has been selling them and seem to have a genuine affection for him. While there's no extra incentive necessary when a national title is on the line, look for sparing Calipari the indignity of dropping two National Championship games to a contemporary like Self to be a rallying cry among the Wildcats.”
Total Talk
The ‘over/under’ for Monday opened as high as 140½ at a couple major offshores and 139½ in Las Vegas. The number was knocked down immediately and is hovering between 137 and 138. All of the four games in the Elite Eight went ‘over’ the prior weekend but the two semifinals stayed ‘under’ on Saturday.
Will bettors see another defensive slugfest tonight?
Dinero believes so. “Defense will be the theme of the night, because in spite of all the big names and sure-fire lottery picks, it's the reason both are the last teams standing on Monday. Because Withey and Anthony Davis are two of the best in the business at blocking and altering shots, expect a lot of these kids to wind up settling for mid-range jumpers. That's going to put a premium on rebounding and likely slow down two teams who ideally would prefer to run any chance they get. Taylor and Johnson both look to run every chance they get, while Marquis Teague is a one-man fast break and no set of bigs in the country get up and down the floor better than Kentucky's.”
In the first meeting from MSG, the total closed at 147½ and now you’re looking at number 10 points lower. When you look at the Jayhawks, it’s hard to expect a high-scoring game when they play outside of Lawrence. Kansas has seen the ‘under’ go 16-3 when playing as a visitor and that includes a 4-1 mark to the ‘under’ in this year’s tournament. The lone ‘over’ came against UNC (80-67) when both teams exploded for 94 points in the first half.
While Kansas has been an ‘under’ squad, the opposite can be said for Kentucky recently. The Wildcats were on a 4-0 run to the ‘over’ in the tournament prior to Saturday’s ‘under’ against Louisville. Calipari and company were held to 69 points after averaging 88 points per game in the first four tourney battles.
The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four championship games, which includes last year’s unwatchable affair between Connecticut and Butler (53-41).