Championship Trends
By Marc Lawrence
It’s Championship Week and with it the reward of a ticket to the Big Dance to all the teams that will be cutting down the nets immediately after their conference tournament championship game.
Before knee jerking and playing on teams that on the surface look like they have the better moves pay close attention to these three College Conference Championship Game scenarios. You could end up padding your NCAA Tournament bankroll. Note: all results are prior to this year’s tourneys and are since 1990…
Home Teams in Title Games – Use Them, Don’t Abuse Them.
Home is where the heart is. It’s also where the money is in championship games. That’s confirmed by the fact that ‘on-board’ teams are 35-10 SU and 26-18-1 ATS.
If these home advantaged teams lost one or fewer games at home on the season they improve to 21-1 SU and 13-8-1 ATS, including 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS if they are hosting a No.1 or No. 2 seeded opponent.
Best of all, these one-loss wonders are 6-0 SU and ATS if the opponent did not cover the number in it’s semi-final contest.
Dogs With a Higher Win Percentage Have Little to No Bite.
As rare as it may seem, teams with the better record are not always favored in Championship Games. Trust me, when the oddsmaker installs the opponent with an inferior win percentage as the favorite he’s knows what he’s doing. That’s because underdogs with a better win percentage are just 14-21-2 ATS in these games.
If the favorite owns a win percentage of .640 or more the dog dips to 9-19-1 ATS, including 4-16-1 ATS if the puppy was a dog or favorite of 5 or less points in its last game.
Make these non-covering teams a dog of more than 2 points and these higher win percentage puppies roll over and die, going 1-11 ATS when facing a .640 or greater foe.
Eight or Lower Seeds Do Not Belong.
Everybody loves a good story and in this sport there is none better than finding a David ready to slay a Goliath. However, our database tells us that David is firing pebbles Goliath is not about to fall.
That’s because No. 8 or lower Conference Tourney seeds that somehow manage to arrive to the Championship game are just 3-14 SU and 6-11 ATS. Worse, if they are facing a No. 1 or a No. 2 seed they are 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS. And if they own a win percentage of .575 or less they are 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS.
FYI: not a single No. 8 seed has even sniffed the air atop the ladder when it comes to cutting down the nets as they are 0-7 SU and ATS in title games.
There you have it, three Championship Game theories to ponder for Championship Week. Get your dancing shoes!