Inside the Numbers
By Bodog
How to Analyze the Rankings
There’s not supposed to be any judging in this sport. But look how much sway the opinions of sports writers and head coaches hold over the way people bet on college basketball. The AP rankings and the ESPN/USA Today Poll (aka the Coaches’ Poll) are so important that we invariably see results printed like this:
No. 4 Purdue 60, No. 9 Ohio State 57
What do these numbers really mean? The Big Ten also features No. 11 Michigan State and the No. 14 Wisconsin. No other conference has as much talent concentrated at the top of the rankings. But in reality, the Big Ten is not the powerhouse it appears to be – nor is Purdue its best team.
For a more objective sorting of the teams in Division I, sharp handicappers turn to the stathead community. The leading lights of advanced hoops analysis are continually coming up with new and better ways of measuring the “true” quality of a basketball team and its players. The most recognizable of these statheads is Ken Pomeroy, whose efficiency-based rankings are affiliated with the Basketball Prospectus website, part of the unofficial online sports gambling canon. Here’s how Pomeroy ranked these four teams going into Wednesday.
No. 3 Wisconsin
No. 6 Purdue
No. 11 Ohio State
No. 21 Michigan State
According to Pomeroy, Wisconsin is undervalued in the polls and Michigan State are getting too much respect. Sure enough, the Badgers are 14-9 ATS thus far and the Spartans are 10-15 ATS. This is a very simple method for spotting a value fade or follow team; the bigger the difference in the rankings, the bigger the chance that there’s money to be made.
Let’s pluck out a few other choice examples from the AP Poll this week.
No. 6 Duke -No. 2 Pomeroy
The Blue Devils are the highest ranked of any Division I team with four losses this year, but a closer look at their body of work shows that Duke still isn’t getting enough love from the press. These guys have played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation (No. 4, according to Pomeroy), all four losses were on the road, and tasting defeat at Wisconsin (+4.5) and Georgetown (+2) shouldn’t keep Mike Krzyzewski awake at night. Duke is 16-8-1 ATS this year.
No. 16 BYU - No. 7 Pomeroy
The Mountain West doesn’t serve up a tough schedule at all, but BYU has thumped opponents by an average of 19 points per game. That margin is impressive enough for Pomeroy to treat the Cougars with more respect than the AP writers. BYU supporters have taken advantage at 14-10 ATS.
No. 18 Butler - No. 29 Pomeroy
Here’s a case where the writers are giving a team too much credibility – easy to do with the Bulldogs, who have been to the Tournament three years in a row and are once again destroying the Horizon League. But this is a soft conference, and Butler’s “only” winning by 9.2 PPG. That’s the formula for their 11-16 ATS record.
Hindsight does play a role in picking out these teams, and there are other examples that don’t fit the template (like overvalued Kentucky at 13-11 ATS). That’s handicapping for you. This is still a great way to put your finger on the pulse of the betting public, and it will sharpen your opinion of the teams and conferences you study.
Which brings us back to the Big Ten. Pomeroy uses his numbers to rank the conferences as well as the individual teams, and the Big Ten is fourth out of the six majors as we go to press:
1. ACC
2. Big 12
3. Big East
4. Big Ten
5. SEC
6. Pac 10
There’s the ACC up top, reminding us of Duke’s imposing strength of schedule. Six teams from the ACC are in Pomeroy’s Top 25, even if only two made it into the AP poll, No. 23 Wake Forest being the others. When it comes time for March Madness, those who survived the ACC are going to carry more value into their non-conference matchups than the Big Ten clubs. That’s assuming Duke doesn’t fold like a card table again – we don’t have reliable numbers for a team’s personality. Yet.