Friday's Best NCAAB Bet
Sienna Saints at St. Peter’s Peacocks (-2.5, 121)
The last time St. Peter’s beat Sienna, Happy Feet had yet to start dancing at the box office, Shakira’s hips had yet to lie and The CW was still the WB. Ah, March of 2006.
But this version of St. Peter’s plays some of the best defense in the nation, giving up just 59.7 points per game. That’s the 15th-best mark in the country and is the reason why the Peacocks are a stunning 5-1 SU and 3-1 ATS at home. The team also has seen the under go 5-1 in its past six games overall, as it continues to employ its trademark defense.
Meantime, Sienna is struggling to find the form that made it an NCAA Tournament darling in recent seasons. The Saints can’t score, averaging just 68.4 points per game, and don’t play good defense, allowing 70.1 points per game. The team is just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS over its past six games.
And even if they haven’t beaten the Saints recently, the Peacocks come to play. St. Peter’s is 3-1 ATS in the team's past four meetings.
Pick: St. Peter’s
Butler welcomes Green Bay
By: Michael Robinson
The Butler Bulldogs can’t afford too many more losses as they shoot for a fifth consecutive NCAA tournament appearance. They host the Green Bay Phoenix in Horizon League play on a light Friday night.
Butler is 13-6 straight-up (10-6-1 against the spread). The team hasn’t had more than six losses in a season since before coach Brad Stevens took over in 2007-2008.
The Bulldogs were the darling of college basketball last year with their Cinderella run to the NCAA title game, losing by two points (61-59) to Duke. However, success has its consequences and sophomore Gordon Hayward (15.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG) left for the NBA. Graduating senior Willie Veasley was another key loss.
Butler still has two of the best players in the conference in guard Shelvin Mack and big man Matt Howard. They combine for over 31 PPG. A consistent third scorer is still needed and 6-foot-11 sophomore center Andrew Smith (8.6 PPG) could be the answer.
Smith is averaging 14.8 PPG the last four games. He had 15 points in Butler’s last game on Sunday at Wright State, but it wasn’t good enough in a 69-64 loss as four-point favorites.
The 133 combined points scored went ‘over’ the modest 126 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in Butler’s last four games and 11-6 on the season. The offense scores 74.1 PPG and allows 65.2 PPG. Those numbers were 68.7 PPG and 59.4 PPG respectively last year.
The Bulldogs are 7-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this year. They were upset 71-68 in OT by Evansville back in November. Their conference home record is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Coach Stevens’ squad is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in Horizon League road games as opponents sense vulnerability and want revenge for prior-year defeats.
Butler, Wright State and Cleveland State are all 5-2 SU in the conference, a game behind Valparaiso. The only Horizon League team to make March Madness will likely be the conference tourney winner. Butler could get an at-large bid if it wins out in the regular season, not a likely scenario.
Green Bay (10-9 SU, 7-6 ATS) had a tough 6-9 SU start to the year under first year coach Brian Wardle. The 31-year-old is one of the youngest coaches in the country and the school hopes he can duplicate some of the success the young Stevens has had at Butler.
Wardle’s guys have won their last four games (3-0 ATS). The non-spread affair was a ‘gimme’ over Houston Baptist (77-61). The last three were home wins and ‘covers’ over less talented conference teams; Milwaukee (69-64), Loyola of Illinois (71-68) and Illinois-Chicago (74-50).
Green Bay is led by its senior guard combination of Rahmon Fletcher (16.7 PPG) and Bryquis Perine (12.1 PPG). Both like to shoot the three-ball, hitting at 37.8 and 39.3 percent respectively.
The frontcourt has a seven-foot freshman in Alec Brown (9.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG), who badly needs to stay out of foul trouble in this game. Junior college transfer Jarvis Williams leads the team in rebounding (5.8) at just 6-foot-5 and there’s not a lot of height outside of Brown. Butler should be able to capitalize down low offensively.
Green Bay is 2-5 SU away this year, but 4-3 ATS. The ‘over’ is 4-2-1 in road games.
Butler won and ‘covered’ both meetings between the teams last year. It’s 4-1 ATS in its last five home games versus Green Bay. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in the last six at Butler.
Neither team is reporting any significant injuries. ESPNU will have the 4 p.m. (PT) tip-off from Hinkle Fieldhouse.
College Basketball Knowledge
Butler won 11 of last 12 games vs Green Bay, winning last five played here, by 6-21-9-9-23 points. Bulldogs are 2-1 as Horizon home favorite, winning home games by 17-23-5 points. Green Bay won last three in a row but are 0-2 on Horizon road, losing by 23 at Detroit, at Wright State by 3. Double digit favorites are 3-1 vs spread in Horizon League.
Home side won last four Milwaukee-Valparaiso games; Panthers lost by 1-12 points in last two visits here. Milwaukee is 1-2 as Horizon dog on road, losing by 24 at Wright State, by 5 at Green Bay, beating Detroit by 3. Valpo is 3-1 as Horizon favorite, winning both home games by 24-6 points. Horizon League home favorites of 6+ points are 12-3 vs spread.
Iona won four of last six games vs Niagara, winning last two visits here, by 6-3 points; Gaels won first meeting 82-58 (-16); their starters made 64% from floor. Iona won/covered last four games, but split only two on road, losing at Siena, beating Rider by 4. Niagara is 3-4 as MAAC dog, 2-1 at home. Double digit favorites are 11-3 vs spread in MAAC play.
Fairfield won last five games vs Canisius by average score of 66-59; they beat Griffins three times LY, by 6-2-10 points. Stags are 6-1 in MAAC, 3-1 on road- they're 4-1 as favorite, 1-1 on road. Canisius is 2-5 so far in league, but 1-1 at home, with both games decided by a point. MAAC single digit home underdogs are 7-3 against the spread.
Underdogs are 7-0 vs spread in Siena's MAAC games; Saints are 3-0 as a dog- they scored 61 or less points in their losses, average of 71.8 ppg in its wins. Siena won last eight games vs St Peter's, winning last four visits here by 17-13-11-8 points; Peacocks lost three of last four games but are 3-1 as home fave. MAAC single digit home faves are 2-9-1 vs spread.