Friday's Best NCAAB Bets
Utah Utes at Michigan Wolverines (-9)
It took several seasons, but coach John Beilein finally has a roster of the interchangeable parts he needs to play his system at Michigan.
The team is playing more man-to-man defense and mixing in exotic zone looks on defense. When it has the ball, Michigan uses a methodical series of screens to free shooters for threes and make sharp cuts to the rim. And this team’s best days are still ahead of it. Jordan Morgan (11.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg), Tim Hardaway Jr. (10.4 ppg) are both freshman and Darius Morgan (14.4 ppg, 7.5 apg) and Stu Douglass (9.2 ppg) are sophomores.
“But we’re going to be young all year long, it’s not going to stop," Beilein said. "We’ll just get better at being young.”
Meantime, Utah would like to just get better at defense. Utah is giving up 66.8 points per game because it is struggling to keep opposing teams off the boards and give up second-chance points.
Michigan will make mistakes as it goes, but should do enough to notch a convincing win.
Pick: Michigan
Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5)
The Cyclones couldn’t be much more reliant on point guard Diante Garrett. The senior is having his best year ever, averaging career-highs in points (17) and assists (6). And don’t think his coach hasn’t noticed.
“He is our engine,” Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg said. “He sets the tone for our team.”
In a recent 85-58 win over Southeast Missouri State he backed up his coach’s words, dropping 20 points on 8-of-12 shooting to go with six assists and five rebounds. So who on Iowa will slow him down? That job falls to junior Bryce Cartwright, who is averaging 10.2 points and 4.1 assists for the Hawkeyes, after spending last season at Paris Junior College in Texas.
Cartwright wasn't penciled in to be the starter, but was thrust into the starting lineup when Cully Payne went down with a sports hernia on Nov. 30.
Expect Cartwright to have a solid game. Just don’t expect it to be enough to shut off Iowa State’s motor.
Pick: Iowa State
College Basketball Knowledge
Michigan lost 68-52 at Utah LY; Wolverines are 6-2, scoring 50-56 in its two losses; they're 1-2 as favorite this year. Utah is also 6-2, giving up 79-78 points in losses, 75 or less in wins. Utes are 1-1 on road, winning by 8 at Bradley, losing by 17 at Utah State. MWC road dogs are 7-5 vs spread. Big 11 single digit home favorites are 6-2.
Home side won last seven Iowa-Iowa State games; Cyclones lost three in a row in Iowa City by 16-18-7 points. State is 7-2, losing 60-54 in only road game, at Northern Iowa. Hawkeyes are just 5-4, but won last two games, allowing just 46 ppg. Big 12 single digit road underdogs are 2-7 vs spread. Big 11 single digit home favorites are 6-2.
Cal-Irvine is 4-4 in Turner's first year as coach, but highest-ranked team they've beaten is #284; Wyoming is #171. Anteaters lost last two home games, to La Tech/San Jose State. Wyoming is 2-5 vs D-I teams, losing both its road games, by 14 at Northern Colorado, 10 at So Dakota State. MWC underdogs are 7-5 against the spread.
Santa Clara won six of last seven games vs San Jose State, winning last four visits here, by 3-10-1-2 points; road teams won six of last eight in series. Broncos lost last three games by 23-6-11 points; they lost 86-73 at USC in only true road game. WCC road dogs are 12-17 vs spread. WAC home favorites of 6 or less points are 7-0.
Siena is 6-0 vs Fairfield last two years, beating Stags in MAAC tourney both years (in OT LY); Saints are just 2-5, losing last two games in OT. Stags are 5-3 against #325 schedule; best team they've beaten is ranked #184- Loyola in MAAC opener. Fairfield is 1-2 on road, winning 41-39 at Savannah, losing by 15 at Rutgers, 15 at Penn State.