Friday's Best NCAAB Bet
Princeton Tigers at Columbia Lions (+2.5)
The Lions once looked like contenders for the Ivy League title. Now, they just need to find a way to stop opposing scorers to have a shot at an NIT bid.
“We’re pulling it out of the net all of the time,” Columbia coach Kyle Smith said. “So there aren’t a lot of missed shots, and we’re not making them miss enough.”
Last weekend, Brown freshman guard Sean McGonagill light up the Lions for 39 points in an 87-79 loss. That defeat became a losing streak when in the next game Columbia let Yale put three players in double figures, shoot 50 percent from the field and make 44 percent of their threes en route to a 72-67 beating.
And things won’t be easier against the Tigers. Princeton is fully healthy, has already beat top Ivy League contenders Penn and Harvard and is one of the best shooting teams in the nation. The Tigers are in the Top 50 in the country in both field goal percentage (46.6) and 3-point percentage (37.9).
“They’ve got four studs, the way I see it,” Smith said. “Both of their guards can drill it from the three but I think their strength is really in their forwards with (Kareem) Maddox and [Ian] Hummer…they post those guys relentlessly.”
And look for them to keep posting up on Friday.
Pick: Princeton
College Basketball Knowledge
Harvard won its last three games vs Yale, by 10-3ot-20 points; Crimson is 5-1 in Ivy League, winning home games by 9-11-21 points (1-2 as a home favorite). Yale is 4-2 in Ivy, with last three games all decided by 5 or less points- they're 2-1 vs spread as an underdog. Double digit home favorites are 4-3 vs spread in Ivy League games.
Brown won six of last seven games vs Dartmouth; home team won nine of last 11 series games. Bruins are 2-4 in last six visits here- they're 1-5 in Ivy League, 0-3 on road, with losses by 8-18-2 points. Dartmouth is 1-5 in Ivy, losing last three games by 21-31-15 points. Ivy League home teams are 5-3 vs spread in games where spread is less than 4 points.
Home side won nine of last ten Princeton-Columbia games; Princeton is 1-4 in last five visits here, winning by 15 LY. Tigers are 5-0 in Ivy play, but this their its first road game. Columbia is 3-3 in Ivy, winning by 4 in only home game- they're 2-1 vs spread as an Ivy underdog. Single digit home underdogs are 3-1 vs spread in Ivy League games.
Cornell won five of its last six games vs Penn, winning last three played here by 2-24-20 points. Quakers lost their last two games in OT, despite never leading either game in regulation. Cornell is 1-5 in Ivy, with three losses by 4 or less points- they're 0-2 as an Ivy League favorite. Single digit home favorites are 5-6 vs spread in Ivy League games.
Underdog is 12-1 vs spread in Siena games; Saints are 3-1 as road dog, losing road games by 1-14-8-17 points (2-4 SU). Iona (-3) lost 73-67 at Siena Jan 3, its 10th straight series loss. Saints won last five visits here. Iona lost four of last five games; they're 4-1-2 as a MAAC favorite. Double digit home favorites are 12-6-2 vs spread in MAAC games.
Niagara won its last eight games vs Loyola, winning last three here, by 5-16-9 points. Greyhounds won six of their last eight games; underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in their home games (4-2 SU), with Loyola winning by 16-1-12-3 points. Eagles are 2-4 as road dog, losing away games by 8-24-2-22-20-15-2 points. MAAC double digit home favorites are 12-6-2.
Fairfield (-19) nipped Manhattan 61-59 at home nine days ago; Stags are 5-1 on MAAC road (2-2 as road favorite) winning away games by 17-8-15-7-8 points, with a loss at Loyola. MAAC home underdogs of more than 6 points are 6-2 vs spread this season. Jaspers are1-5 at home, 0-4 as home underdog, losing by 29-15-6-21-9 points (beat Niagara by 2).
Rider is 15-2 in last 17 games vs Canisius, winning last seven played in home gym, by 3-7ot-4-10-51-13-16 points. Broncs (-3) won 77-76 Jan 9 at Canisius, making 11-22 from arc. MAAC single digit home favorites are 6-15-1 vs spread. Rider is 0-6 as MAAC home favorite, winning by 10-1-14 points. Canisius won four of its last five games; they're 1-5 on MAAC road, 2-2 as road dog, with losses by 9-10-8-4-15 points.
St Peter's (-13) waxed Marist 85-53 at home Jan 27, its fourth win in a row over Red Foxes; Peacocks won/covered five of last six games, split their six MAAC road games, winning by 3-9-23 points (2-0 as a road favorite). Marist lost its last eight games (0-3-1 vs spread in last four). MAAC home underdogs of more than 6 points are 6-2 vs spread.
Ivy League Notes
By Bruce Marshall
Never mind that talk about no college hoops on Friday nights. Of course there is college hoop action...in the Ivy League!
We have been following the Ivies for years and reject the notion that the league is "unhandicappable." Indeed, there are some very solid team and series trends worth watching in the Ivies. With all of the "ancient eight" in action Friday night, here’s a quick team-by-team Ivy rundown as the league race hits its halfway point this weekend. Straight-up and point-spread records are thru February 10, with game matchups listed for this weekend.
Princeton (SUR 17-4, PSR 9-7)...The Tigers took early control of the Ivy race within the last week by beating top contenders Harvard and Penn, although both of those games were at Jadwin Gym; road dates vs. the Crimson and Quakers are still forthcoming. They’re still using the old Pete Carril system, with former Tiger star Sydney Johnson now calling the shots on the sidelines, but this is a somewhat modified version of the Carril system, as Johnson has sped up the offense considerably. Princeton is tallying 71 ppg this season and enters this weekend ona streak of 22 straight games scoring 60 points or more (dating to late last season), a streak that hasn’t been matched since the early ‘70s. As usual, the Tigers have plenty of good shooters, with veteran Gs Dan Mavraides and Doug Davis both hitting better than 40% beyond the arc. Their long-range accuracy has really helped space the floor on the attack end, where bullish frontliners Ian Hummer and Kareem Maddox both do the bulk of their work on the blocks, with each hitting better than 55% from the floor. Hummer, Maddox, Mavraides, and Davis are all scoring 13 ppg as well, lending to exquisite balance. The team to beat in the league. This weekend: at Columbia, at Cornell
Harvard (16-4, 7-5)...Where does Tommy Amaker get these athletes at Harvard? Indeed, that’s been the subject of some conjecture around the Ivies the past couple of years. The Crimson has been able to deal with the graduation of floor leader Jeremy Lin with a 3-G lineup featuring plenty of quickness. Soph Brandyn Curry (5.7 assists pg) has taken over most of the playmaking duties with some flair, but where Harvard has an edge on most Ivy foes is with big and agile 6'8, 240-lb PF Keith Wright, who does his scoring work in the paint and is scoring a team-best 15.2 ppg. Wright looks as if he would be a lot more at home in the Atlantic 10 or even the Big East. Guards soph Christian Webster and frosh Laurent Rivard are both 6'5 and unafraid to launch from beyond the arc, where each are connecting upon an acceptable 39% of their triples. Amaker’s season nearly unraveled last weekend, however, when Harvard blew an 18-point lead at Penn the night after losing at Princeton, only to rally back and win in overtime at the Palestra on G Oliver McNally’s game-winner. Non-conference wins over the likes of NCAA bubble teams Boston College and Colorado, plus George Washington, and a very close loss at Michigan, indicate the Crimson are again not a normal Ivy team this season. This weekend: hosts Yale & Brown.
Penn (9-10, 10-4)...The Quakers fancied themselves a league contender heading into last weekend, but overtime losses within 72 hours of one another against Harvard and then Princeton have put Penn in chase mode. Nonetheless, the Quakers have made a quick recovery under former alum and star player Jerome Allen, who took the job on an interim basis last season and immediately stamped it as his own. The Quakers figure to have something to say about the league race after navigating a difficult non-conference slate that included the normal diet of local Big Five opposition (against whom Penn covered in all four tries this season, beating St. Joe’s in the process), not to mention honorable losses at Pitt and Kentucky. Considering Penn’s rugged schedule, its 10-4 point-spread mark is quite noteworthy. The Quakers don’t have a lot of size but do won two of the Ivy’s most unique weapons with their "Zack ‘n Jack" show featuring jr. G Zack Rosen (14.6 ppg) and 6'8 sr. F Jack Eggleston (14 ppg and 55% from the floor, including 51.4% beyond the arc). Don't be surprised if the Quakers stay in the race and avenge one or both of those bitter defeats they endured within the last week. This weekend: at Cornell & Columbia
Yale (11-9, 6-4)...The Eli are hanging in the upper division of the loop and made a good fist of it a couple of weeks ago when traveling to Princeton and Penn, although Yale lost both. In 6'10 jr. C Greg Mangano (15.1 ppg), the Bulldogs might have the league’s best post threat. But coach James Jones has a well-balanced roster, with plenty of quickness in the backcourt in Gs Austin Morgan, Porter Braswell, and Michael Grace (though all a bit undersized, with none checking in over 6'0) and a unique weapon in 6'4 swingman Reggie Willhite, perhaps the Ivy’s best on-ball defender. Notable non-conference efforts included a win at Boston College and a 3-point loss at Providence. The Eli are not going to be a pushover for anybody this season. This weekend: at Harvard & Dartmouth
Columbia (12-8, 5-3)...The alma mater of both President Obama and Monica Crowley (now we’re talking!) has a new coach, Kyle Smith, who took over after Joe Jones (Yale coach James’ brother) moved to Steve Donahue’s new staff at Boston College. So far, Ivy observers give Kyle a "B" grade for work in his first spin around the track as head coach, although the non-league schedule wasn’t very challenging (certainly not like Penn’s). But the league slate is soon going to balance out after the Lions have recently played five straight Ivy games on the road; four consecutive home games in Morningside Heights await. The problem Smith has is when top two scorers, Gs Noruwa Agho (15.6 ppg) & Brian Barbour (13.3 ppg), have off nights; there is not much backup firepower, especially from the frontline, with only one starter (slow 6'8 C Mark Cisco) over 6'6. This weekend: hosts Princeton and Penn
Brown (8-12, 3-6)...The buzz at Chris Berman’s alma mater is for 6'1 frosh G Sean McGonagill, an Illinois product who has burst upon the Ivy scene with a recent 39-point explosion against Columbia in the Bears’ first Ivy win. We’ll see how McGonagill performs in the future now that he’s a marked man. He does, however, provide some needed firepower for the Brown backcourt that had been lagging for much of the first half of the season while Fs Peter Sullivan (13.1 ppg) & Tucker Halpern (11.8 ppg) lead the team in scoring. Sullivan’s recent shoulder injury, however, has kept him out of the last three games and could keep him shelved for a couple of more weeks, hardly the sort of news HC Jesse Agel needs. Halpern (a thin 6'8) is the only starter taller than 6'6, however, leaving the Brown frontline vulnerable to the better interior attacks in the league. Another frosh, 6'7 swingman Dockery Walker, has also flashed some upside, and the Bears have displayed good balance with five different leading scorers in the last five games, but without much presence in the paint or on the bench, Brown is going to be outmanned most nights. This weekend: at Dartmouth & Harvard
Cornell (5-15, 5-9)...No one is too surprised at the downturn this season in Ithaca, where Cornell lost almost the entire core of last year’s Sweet 16 team that for a short while was the lead story in the "Cinderella Watch" (getting more national attention than Butler for a week or so), not to mention watching HC Steve Donahue abandon ship and move to Boston College. New HC Bill Courtney is a veteran assistant in the mid-Atlantic region, having been on Jim Larranaga’s Final Four staff at George Mason and recently at Virginia tech, but he is overseeing almost a complete rebuild with the Big Red, who have struggled accordingly. One holdover from last year, jr. G Chris Wroblewski, is doing his best to keep Cornell afloat by scoring a team-best 14.6 ppg, but among other things the Big Red misses from a year ago is 7'0 C Chris Foote, who gave Cornell an uncommon interior presence for an Ivy team. Replacing the likes of Ryan Wittman and Louis Dale have been more than difficult as well for Courtney, who is doing his best to keep the Big Red viable (sometimes to no avail). This weekend: hosts Penn & Princeton
Dartmouth (5-15, 4-6)...It’s another long season in Hanover for Laura Ingraham’s alma mater. Losses last week at Princeton and Penn mean that it’s been two years (February 2009) since the Big Green last won an Ivy road game. One of the curiosities of the offseason was the return of HC Paul Cormier, who coached Dartmouth between 1984-91 and has spent most of the time since involved in the NBA as a coach and scout, most recently doing the latter for the Warriors. The Big Green is shooting itself in the foot lately, too, with poor FT shooting (just 51.8% over the past four games entering this weekend). The offense is one of the nation’s worst, with top scorer G Jabari Trotter scoring only 8.8 ppg. Not many go-to scorers in this lineup, with starting C Clieve Weeden only generating 5 ppg. And Cormier left the NBA for this? This weekend: hosts Brown & Yale