Friday's Best NCAAB Bets
Kent State at Drexel (-4.5, 121.5)
Don’t expect this one to feature many open-court dunks or an epic shooting display. The Dragons play at one of the slowest paces of any team in the country, preferring a methodical, half-court game to an up-and-down battle. And the results speak for themselves.
Drexel has seen the under go 14-8-1 this season, including eight straight unders. During that streak, the team has given up an average of 53.9 points and opponents have cracked 60 points only once.
In the Colonial Athletic Association, Drexel scores 0.94 points per possession – 11th in the league. But when it comes to protecting their own rim, the Dragons are tied for tops in the CAA, giving up a mere 0.93 points per possession. The Dragons also lead the CAA in field-goal percentage defense (38.8) and three-point percentage defense (29.9).
"We've been shooting ourselves in the foot because we're going way, way, way too fast," Drexel coach Bruiser Flint said. "If we have to grind it out against the shot clock, we can grind out against the shot clock. Plus, when we do that, we put ourselves in position to rebound."
Kent State isn’t exactly a huge fan of wide-open games, either. The under has hit 13 times in the team’s 22 games this season. The Golden Flashes also are among the top defensive teams in the Mid-American Conference, holding teams to a league-low 40.6 percent shooting from the field.
Pick: Under
No. 12 Connecticut at No. 16 Louisville (-3.5, 138)
Is Kemba Walker back at it?
The National Player of the Year candidate had struggled in recent weeks, going 5 of 16 in a win at Marquette, 7 of 23 in a loss to Louisville, 3 of 14 in a loss to Syracuse, 7 of 19 in a win at Seton Hall and 4 of 16 in a blowout loss at St. John’s.
But the slump seems to be behind him. First, Walker dropped 22 points on just 10 shots in a win over Providence. Next, he torched Georgetown for 31 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds in a win over Georgetown at the XL Center on Wednesday.
“I’m just having fun out there,’’ said Walker, who missed a long 3-pointer at the buzzer in the teams’ first matchup, a 79-78 Louisville win in double overtime. “I had a big talk with [my dad] during my slump and got back to my old self. I just stopped thinking and had a good game.’’
The question now is can he keep the hot streak going? Well, the Cardinals have struggled against slashing guards this season.
Cincinnati guard Cashmere Wright continually attacked the rim for layups and finished with a game-high 20 points in the Bearcats’ 63-54 win over the Cardinals on Wednesday. That doesn’t bode well for Louisville’s chances to slow down Walker.
Pick: Connecticut
Game of the day: UConn at Louisville
Connecticut Huskies at Louisville Cardinals (-3.5, 138)
THE STORY: No. 16 Louisville can be a dangerous team when its pressure defense is confusing opponents and its long-range shots are falling. But when those things don’t work, the Cardinals look very ordinary. One of No. 12 Connecticut’s biggest disappointments this season was a double-overtime home loss to Louisville in January. The Huskies will be looking for some payback when they visit the stumbling Cardinals on Friday.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
ODDS: Books opened with the Cardinals set as 3.5-point favorites at home. The total has dropped from 139 points to 138 after post.
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (19-7, 8-5 Big East, 12-10-1 ATS): The Cardinals had a chance to stay out of the scrum in the middle of the Big East on Wednesday. A victory at unranked Cincinnati would have kept them in third place in the nation’s deepest conference. Instead, Louisville went 4 of 17 from 3-point range and generated only six steals in a 63-54 setback. That loss dropped the Cardinals into a tie for fifth place with three other teams, including the Huskies. Terrence Jennings was the only Louisville player to reach double figures, finishing with 14 points on 7-of-10 shooting.
ABOUT CONNECTICUT (20-5, 8-5 Big East, 12-7-0 ATS): The Huskies, in contrast, showed exactly what they are capable of on Wednesday night, taking down No. 9 Georgetown, 78-70, to snap a three-game losing streak against ranked teams. Kemba Walker showed the form that made him an early player of the year candidate by collecting 31 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds and taking over in the last few minutes with the go-ahead layup and a deep jumper to extend the lead. Jamal Coombs-McDaniel once again proved to be a capable second option on offense, scoring 23 points on 8-of-11 shooting in 38 minutes off the bench.
WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Jennings is averaging 14.2 points over the last six games for Louisville while Peyton Siva continues to struggle, shooting 26 percent (10 of 38) over the last five .. For Connecticut, Coombs-McDaniel is averaging 24 points in the last two games after topping out at 10 in the previous 23. His surge has come on at the expense of freshman Jeremy Lamb, who has totaled 15 points on 6-of-19 shooting in the same span.
KEY STATISTIC: Free-throw shooting. The first meeting between the teams never would have gotten to two overtimes if one of the schools could convert better than 63 percent from the line. The Cardinals finished that game 11 of 20 from the free-throw line, while Connecticut went 12 of 19.
RECENT HISTORY: Louisville took the first meeting, 79-78, in double overtime on Jan. 29, as Siva hit the tying layup in regulation and the winner in the second extra session. The Cardinals have taken three straight and five of seven in the series.
LOOKING AHEAD: Louisville heads to Rutgers on Tuesday before hosting No. 4 Pittsburgh next weekend. The Cardinals close out the regular season at West Virginia on Mar. 5 after hosting Providence three days earlier. The Huskies head home for a date with Marquette on Feb. 24 before two straight on the road at Cincinnati and West Virginia. They finish by hosting No. 7 Notre Dame on Mar. 5.
LAST WORD: In the distraction that won’t go away, the woman convicted of extortion against Louisville coach Rick Pitino is asking for a new trial. Karen Cunagin Sypher is scheduled to be sentenced on Friday after being convicted in August on several charges, including extortion and lying to the FBI.
TRENDS:
* Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Huskies are 1-6-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Conn, Louisville in rare Friday NCAA betting clash
By: Michael Robinson
The Louisville Cardinals are finally getting healthy as they host the Connecticut Huskies in a top-20 Big East battle on Friday night.
The No. 16 Cardinals (19-7 straight-up, 12-10-1 against the spread) have battled injuries all year, especially on the frontline where Jared Swopshire (groin), Rakeem Buckles (finger) and Gorgui Dieng (concussion) have all missed time.
Swopshire has been out the whole season, while Buckles (out 12 games) returned last Saturday against Syracuse and Dieng (out five games) last Wednesday at Cincinnati.
Louisville beat Syracuse at home 73-69 as two-point favorites, but lost 63-54 at Cincinnati as 1½-point ‘dogs, getting out-shot from the free throw line (24-7).
Coach Rick Pitino feels his team will improve down the stretch with the injured players getting integrated into the rotation. Buckles and Dieng only played 13 and 12 minutes respectively last game. Forward Terrence Jennings (9.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) can really use the help underneath against Connecticut.
Louisville still needs to improve on the road, where it’s 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in its last six games. Ironically, the only win came at Connecticut on January 29, 79-78 in overtime as 5½-point underdogs.
The Cardinals got 49 combined points from their three-leading scorers, guards Preston Knowles (14.9 PPG), Peyton Siva (10.4 PPG) and Kyle Kuric (9.9 PPG). They’ve specialized in comebacks this year and rallied from nine-points back in the second half in that one.
Louisville is undefeated (6-0 SU) in the conference at its new KFC Yum! Center. However, several of those games were also nail-biters, going just 3-3 ATS.
The ‘under’ is 6-2 in Louisville last eight home games with totals, allowing just 62.1 PPG.
No. 13 Connecticut (20-5 SU, 12-7 ATS) is 8-5 SU in the Big East, tied with Louisville, Villanova and St. John’s, and trailing Pittsburgh (12-1 SU), Notre Dame (10-3 SU) and Georgetown (9-5 SU).
The Huskies have has won and ‘covered’ their last two games against Providence (75-57) and Georgetown (78-70). Both were at home, with the Georgetown game on Wednesday night. They were 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their four previous games, including the Louisville loss.
Guard Kemba Walker was 13-of 23 from the field against Georgetown for 31 points. That was a great sign as he’s struggled shooting in several conference games, including 7-of 23 against Louisville.
Coach Jim Calhoun has been looking for a consistent second scorer after Walker (23.2 PPG, seventh in the country). Sophomore forward Jamal Coombs-McDaniel has come out of nowhere for 48 points the last two games after averaging 4.5 PPG in the first 23.
It remains to be seen if Coombs-McDaniel can continue his hot streak going forward. Center Alex Oriakhi is a very solid player, but he’s known more for his rebounding (8.5 per game) and defense as opposed to his offensive game (10.2 PPG).
Both teams like to push the ball, although neither is a high scoring team. Louisville is 32nd in the country at 76.4 PPG and Connecticut is 56th at 74.3 PPG.
Connecticut is 2-2 SU and ATS in the last four meetings at Louisville, but just 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine meetings overall.
Connecticut is not reporting any significant injuries, while Louisville is only listing Swopshire (out for the year).
ESPN will have the 6 p.m. (PT) tip-off in the marquee game of the evening.
College Basketball Knowledge
Columbia (-2) won 66-45 at Dartmouth Jan 29, game that was 25-all at half; Big Green lost last two visits here by 13-12 points- host won four of last five series games. Lions lost three of last four games; favorites are 3-0 vs spread in their Ivy home games. Dartmouth lost last five games (1-4 vs spread). Ivy League home favorites of 7+ points are 4-7.
Princeton (-10.5) shot 52% from floor, made 5-8 from arc in 67-63 win in first meeting vs Yale Jan 29, Tigers' third straight series win- LY, they won here 58-45. Tigers are 7-0 in Ivy, 1-1 as road favorite. Yale won three of its last four games; they're 3-0 at home in Ivy, winning by 8-1-5 points. Ivy home dogs of 4 points or less are 5-2 against the spread.
Penn (-9) beat Brown 80-78 in OT Jan 29, after trailing by 7 at the half; Quakers lost their last four games, with three of them also in OT. Penn won four of last five games vs Brown, winning by 21-1 in last two visits to Brown. Bruins are 2-6 in Ivy, 1-2 at home, losing by 5-12 points. Ivy home dogs of 4 points or less are 5-2 against the spread.
Harvard (-11.5) beat Cornell 78-57 Jan 29, making 10-20 from arc while turning ball over only four times; Crimson is just 2-5 in last seven series games, losing last three played here by 33-21-36 points. Harvard trails Princeton by game in Ivy; they're 9-1 in last 10 games vs D-I opponents, winning last three by 7-1-3 points. Cornell is 2-6 in Ivy, with four of the six losses by four or less points.
Louisvillle (+5.5) won 79-78 in double OT at UConn Jan 29, as Walker was just 7-23 from floor for Huskies; it was third straight series win for Cardinals, who beat UConn here by 13 LY. UConn won four of its last five road games, three of last four overall. Louisville is 2-3 in its last five games. Big East home favorites of 4 or less points are 15-11 vs spread.
Wichita State won seven of last eight games, covering five of last seven; they're 4-4 as MVC home favorite. MVC non-conference home favorites of 8+ points are 5-12 vs spread; CAA road underdogs of 8 or less points are 19-10 vs spread. VCU lost to George Mason by 20 at home earlier in week, their 3rd loss in last five games. Over is 6-2 in their last 8 games.
Kent lost tough MAC game in OT at Miami Tuesday, ending a six-game win streak; Golden Flashes lost 60-51 at home to CAA's James Madison Dec 31 (-4). MAC road dogs of less than 16 points are 24-13 vs spread. Drexel lost two of last three games, scoring 54-54-43 points. CAA home favorites of 7 or less points are 2-9 vs spread in non-league games.
Weber State won/covered last six games, even though their leading scorer is hurt, but they're just 3-5 vs non-WAC D-I teams. San Jose State won its three games vs Big Sky teams, by 7-1-4 points. Big Sky road faves are 5-6 against spread in non-league games; WAC home teams are 12-3 vs spread out of conference when pointspread is 6 or less points.
Tips and Trends
VCU Rams at Wichita St. Shockers
RAMS: VCU is limping to the finish line in the CAA, as they've lost consecutive games by double figures. The Rams are 20-8 SU and 11-16 ATS overall this season. Because of their late season stumbles, the only way for the Rams to make the NCAA Tournament field is to win their conference tournament. VCU is 6-5 both SU and ATS in true road games this year. The Rams are 4-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. VCU will be looking to score some points offensively tonight, as they are just 1-4 ATS in games following a 60 point or less output. F Jamie Skeen is averaging team highs of 14.6 PPG and 7.7 RPG this year for the Rams. G Bradford Burgess is averaging 13.8 PPG and 6.1 RPG this season. The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. VCU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
Rams are 5-2 ATS last 7 road games.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games overall.
Key Injuries - G Troy Daniels (foot) is out.
Projected Score: 69 (SIDE of the Day)
SHOCKERS: (-8, O/U 139) Wichita St. appears to be having such a good year that they just might be selected into the NCAA Tournament field whether they win the MVC or not. The Shockers are 22-5 SU and 13-10 ATS overall this season. Wichita St. is 11-3 SU and 4-5 ATS in home games this season. Wichita St. is 13-7 ATS as the listed favorite this year. C J.T. Durley leads the Shcckers with 11.4 PPG this season. G Toure' Murry is averaging 10.1 PPG and a team high 3.5 APG this year. The Shockers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Wichita St. is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Shockers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Wichita St. is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win. The Shockers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Shockers are 0-4 ATS last 4 non-conference games.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games following an ATS loss.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 71
UCONN Huskies at Louisville Cardinals
HUSKIES: UCONN has won consecutive games, including a SU win over Georgetown heading into tonight. The Huskies are 20-5 Su and 12-7 ATS overall this season. UCONN is currently ranked 12th in the nation, easily one of the most surprising teams in all of D1 this year. The Huskies are 4-3 both SU and ATS in true road games this season. UCONN is 5-1 ATS as the listed underdog this year. G Kemba Walker is in the running for National Player of the Year, as he has literally put his teammates on his back for the entire season. Walker is averaging a team high 23.2 PPG and 4.7 APG this year. C Alex Oriakhi is averaging 10.2 PPG and a team high 8.5 RPG this season. The Huskies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. UCONN is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win. The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. UCONN is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against a team with a winning SU record. The Huskies are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Friday games.
Huskies are 7-3 ATS last 10 road games.
Under is 8-3 last 11 games overall.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 65
CARDINALS: (-3.5, O/U 138) Louisville has alternated wins and losses over their past 5 games. The Cardinals are currently ranked 16th in the nation, thanks to a 19-7 SU and 12-10-1 ATS record this season. Louisville Louisville has been dominant at home this season, as they are 16-2 SU and 8-6-1 ATS. The Cardinals are 10-7 ATS as the listed favorite this year. Louisville is 5-7 ATS after a conference game. G Preston Knowles is averaging a team high 14.9 PPG this year. G Peyton Siva is averaging 10.4 PPG and 5.2 APG for the Cardinals this season. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600%. Louisville is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.
Cardinals are 5-2 ATS last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 6-2 last 8 home games.
Key Injuries - F Jared Swopshire (groin) is out.
Projected Score: 67 (UNDER-Total of the Day)