(15) Butler (25-4, 12-17 ATS) at Valparaiso (15-15, 16-9-1 ATS)
Butler, which has already wrapped up the Horizon League regular-season championship, looks to finish off a perfect conference season when it travels to Valparaiso.
The Bulldogs ran their overall winning streak to 17 in a row with Saturday’s 70-53 rout of Siena in a “Bracket Buster” contest, easily covering as a nine-point home favorite. Butler started conference play with an 84-67 rout of Valpo on Dec. 5 (coming up just short of covering as an 18-point favorite), then split four non-conference contests before resuming Horizon League action on New Year’s Eve and ripping off 16 straight wins. Including the non-conference victory over Siena, Butler has held five straight opponents under 60 points, giving up an average of just 54.2 ppg during this stretch.
Of Butler’s 17 Horizon League victories, 13 have come by double digits, including the last six in a row. Despite that, the Bulldogs are just 7-10 ATS in conference play, including 4-5 ATS on the road.
The Crusaders went to Bowling Green for a “Bracket Buster” contest on Saturday and got drilled 87-70 as a two-point road underdog. Prior to that, Valparaiso had been on a 9-3 SU and ATS run (all in conference action). The Crusaders are tied for third place in the Horizon League at 10-7, but unlike Butler, they’ve been money against league rivals, going 12-4-1 ATS. They’re also 9-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home this season.
Butler has won all seven meetings since these teams became Horizon League members in 2005-06, including three victories at Valpo by margins of 13, 3 and 13 points. However, the Crusaders are 3-1-1 ATS in lined action in this rivalry, cashing in the last two meetings (both at Butler). The visitor is 4-0-1 ATS in the five lined contests.
The Bulldogs have failed to cover in five of their last seven league games and eight of nine when coming off an ATS win, but they’re 11-3 ATS in their last 14 on Friday. Meanwhile, Valpo is on pointspread surges of 9-3 overall, 4-1 at home, 9-2 in Horizon League action, 7-1-1 after a non-cover, 7-1-1 against winning teams and 4-1-1 on Friday.
Butler has topped the total in four of its last five road games and four straight Friday contests, while the Crusaders are on “over” runs of 21-8-1 overall, 5-0-1 at home, 16-5-1 in the Horizon League, 5-2 on Friday and 4-0 after a non-cover. Finally, the over is 4-1 in the five lined meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VALPARAISO and OVER
NCAAB News and Notes
Friday, February 26
Information on Friday's college basketball games.
Yale (-11) beat Dartmouth 69-56 at home 13 days ago, after trailing by 8 at half; Bulldogs lost five of last seven games, are 2-3 on Ivy road, 2-1 as Ivy favorite. Ivy League home underdogs of 10 or less points are 3-7 vs spread. Dartmouth is 1-9 in Ivy, 3-1 as home dog, losing home games by 4-2-16-18 points, with lone win by 4 over Columbia.
Cornell pretty much clinches Ivy title with win here; they edged Tigers 48-45 in first meeting Feb 13 (-5), holding Princeton to 36.4% from the floor. Cornell won last three games, by 3-7-18 points, but covered just one of last six games- they're 3-2 as Ivy home favorite, winning by 21-34-36-19-14 points. Both Princeton Ivy losses are by three points.
Columbia lost four of last five games; only win was 66-62 over Quakers Jan 13 (+5); Lions made 9-16 from arc, 9-10 from line. Penn lost three of last four games; they're 3-1 as Ivy road underdog, losing away games by 13-14 points, with wins at Brown/Dartmouth by total of 3 points. Ivy League home favorites of 7 or less points are 2-8 against spread.
Harvard won four of last five games; they beat Brown 81-67 on Feb 13 (-9), shooting 53% with +14 rebound margin. Crimson is 2-2 as a home favorite, winning home games by 29-14-20 points (lost to both Cornell, Princeton). Brown won three of last four games, covered four of last five they're 4-1 as Ivy road dog, losing by 11 at Columbia, 14 at Cornell.
Butler is going for perfect 18-0 regular season in Horizon; they won by 17 in conference opener vs Valparaiso Dec 5, in game where both teams shot over 50% from floor. Bulldogs are 3-4 as Horizon road fave, with road wins by 12-2-1-29-18-7-11-11 points. Valpo is 9-2 vs spread in its last 11 league games. Single digit Horizon home dogs are 8-6 vs spread.
Siena lost two of last three games, all on road; they're 7-1 as road fave in MAAC games, winning away games by 13-20-8-8-8-19-17 points, with the loss at Niagara. Rider is 2-3 in last five games; they lost at Siena by 84-62 score Dec 23 (+14); Saints shot 54% for night. Broncs lost four of last six home games. Single digit MAAC home dogs are 6-12 vs spread.
Loyola (+1) shot 39% in 70-65 loss at Canisius Dec 4; Greyhounds are 0-7 vs spread at home, with only home wins over Rider by 2, Marist by 7- they're 0-3 as MAAC home favorites. Griffins are 4-2 as road dog in MAAC games, losing away games by 12-2-19-1-12 points. MAAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-8 against the spread.
First home game in three weeks for Fairfield team that is 1-5 as favorite in MAAC home games, with home wins by 9-3-2-5-13 points. Stags are 5-1 vs spread in last six games as favorite. Iona (-5.5) made 11-26 from arc in 68-58 win over Fairfield Jan 24; Gaels won four of last five home games, are 2-1 against the spread as a MAAC road underdog.
Manhattan (+13) lost 88-64 at Niagara Dec 4, shooting 38% from floor; Jaspers are 2-5 at home in MAAC, beating Marist/St Peter's, losing the other games by 1-2-6-3-8-18 points. Niagara won five of last six games; they're 2-5 on MAAC road, 2-3 as road fave, winning by 16 at Marist, 9 at Loyola. Single digit MAAC home dogs are 6-12 vs spread.
Marist (+11) lost 61-49 at St Peter's Jan 4; Red Foxes are 2-6 as a home underdog in MAAC games, losing at home by 15-22-16-20-16-19-5 pts, with its only win of season vs Manhattan. Marist covered three of last four games. Peacocks are 2-4 as MAAC favorite, are 5-3 on road, with wins by 2-11-9-13-8 points. MAAC home dogs of 6+ points are 1-8.
Idaho State shot 59.6% from floor in 88-80 OT win over Portland State Jan 23 (-2), but Bengals lost six of seven games since; they're 2-3 as Big Sky road dog, losing away games by 1-12-12-3-23-25 points. Portland State lost its last five games; they're 2-2 as a Big Sky home fave, taking home games by 23-28-16. Big Sky home faves of 9+ points are 6-12.
Northern Arizona (-11) shot 57% from the floor, beat Sacramento State 75-71 Jan 24, after trailing by 3 at half; Lumberjacks are 2-5 on Big Sky road, losing last three away games- three of their last five games overall went to OT. Hornets lost four of last five games; they're 2-3 as Big Sky home dog, losing conference home games by 15-1-5-14 points.
Underdog is 6-0 vs spread in Eastern Washington's Big Sky home games; Eagles are 8-3 vs spread as Big Sky underdog, 3-0 at home, losing home games by 4-3-8 points (3-3 SU)- they lost 89-67 at Weber State Jan 23 (+16). Weber won four in row, nine of last ten games; they're 3-1 as Big Sky road favorite, winning away games by 15-25-2-4 points.