Friday's Best NCAAB Bet
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan Wolverines (3, 126)
The Illini and Wolverines are both on the NCAA bubble and looking for a big victory Friday so they can breathe a little easier.
The young Wolverines have been one of the nation’s best betting teams at 18-8 against the number this year and battled it out in a 54-52 loss against Illinois as a 9.5-underdog on Feb. 16.
"They got work to do," Illinois center Mike Tisdale told reporters of the Wolverines. "It's not going to be easy for any of us. They're not going to come in and lay down. I would like to say we are [in the tournament,] but we do have work to do. We're not going to lie down. We're going to play, and we're going to play to win."
It’s hard to ignore that the Wolverines have dropped just one game against the spread over their last 11 and you have to like the way Tim Hardaway Jr. is playing lately. He’s putting up 22 points over the last four games and we think he could lead the club to a mild upset here.
Pick: Michigan
NCAA Betting: Michigan takes on Illinois
By: Michael Robinson
The Michigan Wolverines and Illinois Fighting Illini both have a lot to play for when the Big Ten Tournament continues Friday from Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Illinois is an early three-point favorite at Bookmaker.com, with the total still to be released.
Michigan and Illinois each had a first-round bye on Thursday as the fourth and fifth seed respectively. Both 9-9 straight-up squads in the Big Ten are considered on the NCAA tourney ‘bubble,’ with Michigan having more of a risk.
Ohio State (minus 150) was the heavy pre-tourney favorite, followed by Purdue (plus 195) and Wisconsin (plus 400). Illinois (plus 1700) and Michigan (plus 2700) both appear to be value-driven selections.
The Wolverines (19-12 SU, 18-8 against the spread) have turned their season around after a 1-6 SU (2-5 ATS) start in the conference. They’re 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games, surprising even some of their most ardent fans.
Coach John Beilein deserves much of the credit. His team was predicted to finish towards the bottom of the Big Ten after losing leading scorers Manny Harris (18.1 PPG) and DeShawn Sims (16.8 PPG). The leading returning scorer was Zach Novak (7.4 PPG).
Michigan has a four-guard starting lineup led by sophomore Darius Morris (15.1 PPG, 6.8 APG) and freshman Tim Hardaway Jr. (13.8 PPG) Hardaway Jr. is the son of the former NBA great and has been sensational the last six games (20.7 PPG).
Jordan Morgan, a 6-foot-8 freshman forward, is the only starter above 6-foot-5. The team ranks 10th in the Big Ten in rebounding margin (minus 1.8 per game) and last in blocked shots (2.03).
Offensively, Michigan takes more three-pointers (704) than anyone in the conference, ranking fifth in accuracy (35.1 percent). It defends the ‘three’ well at 32.4 percent (ranked third).
The Wolverines are scoring 66.5 PPG, 10th in the Big Ten. They’re fourth in scoring defense (62.8 PPG), but the ‘over’ is still 6-2 in their last eight games due to some low totals.
Illinois (19-12 SU, 16-14-1 ATS) has underachieved as a whole this year just as Michigan has overachieved.
The Fighting Illini are 2-3 SU (3-1-1 ATS) in their last five games with the only wins coming at home against bottom dwellers Indiana (72-48) and Iowa (81-68). The losses came at Purdue (75-67), Ohio State (89-70) and Michigan State (71-67).
Illinois is just 5-10 SU and 6-8-1 ATS in road plus neutral site games this season.
Coach Bruce Weber has plenty of veteran talent. Senior point guard Demetri McCamey (15 PPG) was named third team all-conference. There’s lots of height up front with 7-foot-1 Mike Tisdale (10.1 PPG) and 6-foot-9 Mike Davis (12.2 PPG) and Bill Cole. All three are seniors as well.
Guard Brandon Paul (9.2 PPG) and forward Jereme Richmond (7.7 PPG) are promising underclassmen.
Friday’s matchup looks like a mismatch inside for Illinois, but it didn’t work out that way in the first meeting in Champaign on Feb. 16. Illinois won 54-52 as 9 ½-point favorites. Davis and Tisdale combined for 20 points and 18 rebounds, but the rebounding advantage overall was just 35-31 Illinois.
The game went way ‘under’ the 130½-point total. The ‘under’ is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the teams.
Michigan doesn’t have any significant injuries. Richmond (shoulder) is probable.
ESPN will have the broadcast at 11 a.m. (PT). The winner will very likely face top-seed Ohio State.
Penn State battles Indiana Hoosiers
By: Brad Young
The Big Ten begins its conference tournament Thursday in Indianapolis, and is expecting six teams to advance to the NCAA Tournament. That is unless some teams play themselves into or out of the Big Dance the next couple of days.
Penn State (16-13 straight up, 13-10-2 against the spread) is one of those teams that can improve its positioning with a strong conference tournament. The Nittany Lions haven’t advanced to the NCAA Tournament since 2001, or the National Invitational Tournament since winning it in 2009.
Sixth-seed Penn State’s quest to improve its standing begins with a first-round matchup against 11th-seed Indiana (12-19 SU, 10-15 ATS). The winner of this contest advances to Friday’s quarterfinals against third-seed and 13th-ranked Wisconsin.
The Nittany Lions concluded their regular season by alternating SU wins and losses their last five games. Penn State upended Minnesota Sunday as a five-point road underdog, 66-63, while the combined 129 points slithered ‘over’ the 128-point closing total. The ‘over’ is 4-1 the previous five outings.
The Nittany Lions outrebounded the Golden Gophers, 27-25, but delivered less assists, 14-11. Penn State finished the contest by shooting 45 percent (23-of-51) from the field, and 40 percent (8-of-20) from behind the arc.
Senior guard Talor Battle paced the offense with 22 points, including a pair of free throws with 10.5 seconds remaining to provide the final margin. Forward Jeff Brooks was the only other player to reach double digits in the victory with 20 along with seven rebounds.
Indiana is searching for its first victory since Feb. 2 when the team slipped past Minnesota. The Hoosiers enter the Big Ten Tournament having gone a dismal 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS the past eight outings.
Coach Tom Crean’s squad continued its downward spiral by getting routed by Illinois Saturday as a 10-point road underdog, 72-48. The combined 120 points never seriously threatened the 139-point closing total, ending a string of back-to-back ‘over’ outings.
Indiana quickly found itself in a 19-point deficit at halftime, 46-27, and finished the contest getting dominated in rebounding (40-25) and assists (16-6). The Hoosiers shot a dismal 32 percent (18-of-57) from the field, and 18 percent (3-of-17) from behind the arc.
Guard Verdell Jones III was the only player to reach double digits in scoring with 12 points, while also grabbing seven rebounds. Fourteen players saw action in the setback, and the next highest scorers were guard Jeremiah Rivers and forward Christian Watford who each had seven.
Penn State won the lone encounter with Indiana this season Dec. 27 as a 6½-point road underdog, 69-60. The combined 129 points went ‘under’ the 133-point closing total.
The Nittany Lions are 6-5 ATS on the road, with the ‘over’ going 7-4. The Hoosiers are 4-7 ATS away from home, with the ‘over’ going 8-3.
Don Best's Real-Time Odds installed Penn State as a 3½-point ‘chalk’ over Indiana. Thursday’s tipoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. PT from Conseco Fieldhouse.
Big Ten Tournament: Day 2 Preview and Picks
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
THE STORY: No. 1-ranked Ohio State begins its Big Ten tournament title defense Friday afternoon against Northwestern at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Buckeyes’ are the No. 1 seed for the fifth time since it began in 1998 and they are seeking their third overall title. Northwestern dropped a one-point decision to the Buckeyes in the regular season, but Ohio State is 20-1 all-time in the series.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Ohio State survived a major scare on Jan. 29 with a 58-57 win in Evanston. A crucial steal by David Lighty led to a free throw by Sullinger with 3.5 seconds left to cap it. Jared Sullinger had 21 points and eight rebounds as Ohio State shot 57 percent and held Northwestern to 39 percent. Michael Thompson had 16 points and eight assists and John Shurna did not play due to an injury. The Wildcats held an 8-2 edge on the offensive boards and a 9-2 edge in 3-pointers.
PREDICTION: Ohio State 80, Northwestern 66
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan Wolverines
THE STORY: One of the hottest teams in the Big Ten looks to continue its bid for an NCAA Tournament berth when four-seed Michigan battles No. 5 Illinois in the Big Ten Conference quarterfinals Friday at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Wolverines won eight of their last 11 after a 1-6 start to gain a first-round bye and put themselves smack dab in the middle of the NCAA Tournament bubble. One of those losses was to the Fighting Illini, who are on better footing in regards to the NCAAs, but they need at least one here to solidify their standing. The game will feature a matchup of two of the best point guards in the Big Ten in senior Demetri McCamey of Illinois and sophomore Darius Morris of Michigan
HEAD-TO-HEAD: These teams played a thriller in Champaign on Feb. 16, with Illinois pulling out a 54-52 victory. Michigan missed two shots in the waning seconds that could have tied it. Demetri McCamey scored 18 points and Mike Tisdale added 12 for Illinois. Morgan scored 12 for Michigan, Darius Morris added 11 and Tim Hardway Jr. chipped in with 10.
PREDICTION: Illinois 57, Michigan 56
Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers
THE STORY: Second-seeded Purdue begins its quest for a second Big Ten tournament championship Friday night when it tries for a third straight win this season against Michigan State in the quarterfinals. The Spartans, ranked second nationally in the preseason, are fighting for their NCAA lives.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Purdue swept the season series, 86-76, at Purdue on Jan. 22 and 67-47 in East Lansing on Feb. 27. The Boilermakers shot 58 percent in the first game, as E’Twaun Moore scored 26, JaJuan Johnson added 20 and point guard Lewis Jackson added a career-high 19 points and five assists. Draymond Green had 21 points, 11 rebounds and six assists, but Kalin Lucas shot 3 of 16 for just nine points. In the East Lansing rout, Johnson had 20 points, a career-high 17 rebounds and seven blocks as the Boilers completed their first regular-season sweep since 1997 and handed the Spartans their worst home loss in over seven years. Lucas scored 23 but was the only Spartan in double figures. Michigan State shot just 33.3 percent.
PREDICTION: Purdue 61, Michigan State 53
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Wisconsin Badgers
THE STORY: Third-seeded Wisconsin looks to wipe away the nasty taste of its regular-season finale against Ohio State when it opens play in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals against Penn State on Friday in Indianapolis.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: The teams split two games this season. Taylor Battle scored 20 of his 22 points in the second half as the Lions won 56-52 in Happy Valley on Jan. 29. Jeff Brooks added 12 points and Jones 14 rebounds. Jon Leuer led Wisconsin with 18 and Jordan Taylor added 16. The Badgers returned the favor in Madison three weeks later with a 76-66 triumph. Leuer had 22 and 10, and Keaton Nankivil had 22 and five 3-pointers. Battle scored 23 in defeat.
PREDICTION: Wisconsin 64, Penn State 60
Big East Semifinals
By Judd Hall
The daytime session at in the Big East’s quarterfinals gave us some of the best college basketball we’re going to see in the tournaments. Then the night session showed us what a butt kicking is really all about.
What we saw was the favorites go 3-1 SU and ATS. Meanwhile, the ‘over’ went 3-1 for Thursday’s tests. That means the ‘over’ is now an impressive 9-3 through three days of tourney basketball.
We’ve got just four teams left with the dream of cutting the nets down at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night.
The Friday night action starts off with the red-hot Huskies taking on the Orange. After that will be a contest between the Fighting Irish and Cardinals.
Connecticut vs. Syracuse
Connecticut (24-9 straight up, 16-11 against the spread) are still a ways from it, but they have the makings to be the first team to win the Big East championship after playing five games in five days. Jim Calhoun’s enters this game after fantastic effort in a 76-74 Pittsburgh as a 5 ½-point underdog. Kemba Walker is in a zone right now with 24 points (including the buzzer beater to win the game), five boards and five assists.
The Huskies have now won three straight games, covering the number on each occasion. The ‘over’ has hit in each of those games as well.
Syracuse (26-6 SU, 14-16 ATS) took care of business against the Johnnies with a 79-73 win as a 2½-point favorite to close out the afternoon session. Brandon Triche paced the Orange with 22 points, six boards and five helpers to make it to the Big East semifinals. The win helped keep Jim Boeheim’s club on a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS run. The ‘over’ has now hit in two straight games for the ‘Cuse.
Advertisement
The Orange took the lone meeting they had against UConn on Feb. 2 with a 66-58 win to easily cover as three-point road favorites.
Of course, this is the first time they’ve seen each other in the postseason since their epic six-overtime performance in 2009. Syracuse wound up taking that game 127-117 to cover as a 5½-point “chalk.” Even though the ‘over’ is hitting at a fantastic clip, consider the ‘under’ in this spot. That’s because the ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings.
Notre Dame vs. Louisville
While the first semifinal had teams that had to survive in order to advance, the second matchup focuses on teams that romped in the quarterfinals to make it to this point.
Notre Dame (26-5 SU, 16-10 ATS) didn’t really look like it had much to gain with a win over the Bearcats. But the Panthers’ loss gave them a clear path at earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Fighting Irish no doubt had that in their minds as they flat out embarrassed Cincinnati in an 89-51 rout as 2½-point favorites. Ben Hansbrough led the charge with 23 points and six assists on 8-of-11 shooting. The Irish are riding a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run into this contest.
Louisville (24-8 SU, 18-10-1 ATS) was another one of the dreaded double-by teams in the conference tourney that showed the rest is a good thing. The Cardinals crushed Marquette 81-56 in the final game of the night as 3 ½-point favorites. Mike Marra poured in 22 points, thanks to shooting six three-pointers. And the ‘Ville held the Golden Eagles to just 30 percent from the field to eliminate any hope they had of advancing. Rick Pitino’s club has now won five of its last six games, covering the spread on each occasion. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in that stretch.
Notre Dame took the only meeting they had against the Cards this season, a 89-79 win in OT as 4 ½-point home favorites on Feb. 9. No surprise there for bettors as the Irish are just 3-4 SU in seven meetings, but 6-1 ATS to fill our coffers. The ‘over’ has cashed tickets in five straight showdowns.
The Irish are now 17-0 SU and 12-5 ATS when tabbed as favorites this season.
Louisville has only been an underdog six times this season, posting a 1-5 SU and 3-3 ATS record. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in those tests.
vegasinsider.com
Big 12 Semifinals
By Kevin Rogers
The Big 12 championship is down to four teams heading into Friday's action with three of the top four seeds remaining. Texas and Texas A&M meet for the third time this season in the nightcap, while Kansas looks to beat Colorado after knocking off the Buffaloes twice in conference play.
(1) Kansas vs. (5) Colorado
The Jayhawks escaped with their lives on Thursday after staving off a feisty Oklahoma State squad, 63-62. KU failed to cash as 14½-point favorites, the fourth straight non-cover for Bill Self's team. Meanwhile, Colorado beat Kansas State for a third time after rallying past the Wildcats, 87-75 as 7½-point underdogs. The Buffs are strengthening their case for an NCAA Tournament berth by putting together a 19-12 record.
Kansas took care of business twice against Colorado with an 82-78 victory in Boulder on January 25, while dumping the Buffs in Lawrence, 89-63 on February 19. The Jayhawks couldn't manage a cover in the late January triumph as 7½-point 'chalk,' while easily grabbing the money as 15-point favorites at Allen Fieldhouse in the 26-point blowout.
Since the start of Febuary, Tad Boyle's Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS off an ATS win, coming off Thursday's cover against K-State. Colorado profited as an underdog against conference opponents by going 6-4 ATS when receiving points inside Big 12 play. The Jayhawks are going for their fifth conference championship appearance in six seasons with a win, but KU is 0-3 ATS the last four games as a double-digit favorite.
(2) Texas vs. (3) Texas A&M
The battle of the Lone Star State finishes off the night as the Longhorns look to beat the Aggies for a third time. Texas took care of Oklahoma, 74-54 to win their second straight since a two-game losing streak. Texas A&M moved on to Friday's semifinals after an 86-71 dumping of Missouri, while cashing as three-point underdogs.
Rick Barnes' club had their way with Texas A&M with a pair of 20-point blowouts over their rivals. The Longhorns beat down the Aggies, 81-60 on January 19 as 6½-point favorites in Austin. UT shot a blistering 58% from the floor, led by 27 points from Jordan Hamilton. Texas finished off the season sweep with a 69-49 rout in College Station on January 31, while jumping out to a 25-point halftime lead.
Following a 7-0 ATS start in conference play, the Longhorns are 5-5 ATS the last 10 games after covering against Oklahoma. The four-game 'under' streak for the Aggies was snapped as Texas A&M hit the 'over' of 136½ in the victory over Missouri. Mark Turgeon's squad is rolling from an ATS standpoint with five covers in the previous six games.
vegasinsider.com
SEC Quarterfinals
By Brian Edwards
The SEC Tournament quarterfinals will start Friday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern when Alabama (20-10 straight up, 14-12 against the spread) and Georgia meet for the second time in less than a week. Some pundits think this is a play-in game for an NCAA Tournament at-large invite, but this space says that the Dawgs will be going dancing regardless of the outcome.
Georgia (21-10 SU, 13-14 ATS) advanced by beating Auburn on Wednesday afternoon by a 69-51 count as an 11½-point home favorite. The 120 combined points fell ‘under’ the 123½-point total. Trey Thompkins was the catalyst for UGA, scoring 22 points and pulling down 10 rebounds. Travis Leslie added 12 points and 10 boards. Thompkins showed no ill effects from the toenail removal that limited his minutes in a couple of games last week.
When Mark Fox’s team visited Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa last Saturday, it came up on the short end of a 65-57 decision as a 4½-point road underdog. Thompkins finished with 15 points and 10 rebounds, while Leslie also chipped in 15 points.
If Alabama can beat UGA for a second time, the Tide would be all but assured an NCAA bid with a 13-4 record against SEC foes. The winner of this contest will play the Ole Miss-Kentucky winner.
Tip-off at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern.
Ole Miss (20-12 SU, 15-13 ATS) advanced to the tourney quarterfinals to face Kentucky thanks to a 66-55 win over South Carolina on Thursday afternoon. The Rebels took the cash as 4½-point favorites. Chris Warren led the way with 20 points, four assists and just one turnover. Terrance Henry added 14 points and 11 rebounds.
When these team met at The Tad Pad in Oxford back on Feb. 1, Warren buried an audacious 3-pointer from about 28 feet out with just a few ticks remaining to lift the Rebels to a 71-69 win as 6½-point home underdogs. UK’s Terrence Jones had 22 points, 12 rebounds and four blocked shots in the losing effort.
Kentucky (22-8 SU, 11-13-1 ATS) finished strong with five wins in its last six games, but we should note that the Wildcats went just 2-3-1 ATS during this span. The ‘Cats did cover the number in Sunday’s regular-season finale, a 64-58 win at Tennessee as 1½-point road favorites. Brandon Knight scored a game-high 19 points, while Jones and Darius Miller chipped in with 15 points apiece.
Andy Kennedy’s squad is 4-3 ATS in seven games as an underdog.
This game will come off the board at about 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
The night session will commence when top-seeded Florida takes on Tennessee in the prime-time session at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. As of early this morning, there was no line available, but please check back later for an update on the number.
When the Gators and Vols squared off last at the O-Dome in Gainesville, Florida (24-6 SU, 12-13-1 ATS) captured a 61-60 win thanks to a late lay-up from junior guard Erving Walker. In the first encounter in Knoxville, UF won an 81-75 decision in overtime as a three-point road underdog.
With UT threatening to get a game-winning score at the end of regulation, UF senior power forward Alex Tyus made a crucial blocked shot to force the extra session. In OT, the Gators pulled away for the moderate upset at Thompson-Boling Arena. Tyus finished with 18 points, seven rebounds and three blocked shots. Kenny Boynton, Chandler Parsons and Walker produced 17, 16 and 15 points, respectively.
Billy Donovan’s team comes to the Peach State on fire, winning eight of its last nine games with a 5-3-1 spread record. The ‘over’ has hit in five consecutive Florida games and seven of its last eight.
The late game will feature Vanderbilt (22-9 SU, 15-11-1 ATS) against Mississippi State. The Commodores eliminated LSU 62-50 but the Bayou Bengals went out in style for our purposes, hooking up their backers as 14-point underdogs.
When these SEC rivals met in Starkville at The Hump, Vandy collected an 81-74 win as a seven-point road ‘chalk.’ This game was a push all around as the 155 combined points hit exactly on the 155-point total.
MSU’s best post player, Renardo Sidney, was limited to 13 minutes of playing time due to foul trouble. In the losing effort, Ravern Johnson scored 19 points and Dee Bost had 18 points, six assists and five rebounds.
Jeffery Taylor led the winners with a game-high 25 points, while John Jenkins chipped in with 21 points and six rebounds.
vegasinsider.com
Big Ten Quarterfinals
By Judd Hall
The second round of the Big Ten tournament gets underway on Friday afternoon with the best team in the land (by ranking, of course) starting a slate of four games.
Many experts have the Buckeyes winning the whole conference tourney with what is considered the path of least resistance. Sportsbook.com hasn’t given gamblers much reason to back them to cut down the nets in Indy by putting them as minus-175 faves.
As far as we’re concerned, the opening day was a bit chalky. The favorites went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, with the ‘under’ going 2-1.
Northwestern vs. Ohio State
Ohio State (29-2 straight up, 14-12 against the spread) has seemingly just been toying with the regular season to get to this warmup stage.
The Buckeyes are coming into this game with a four-game SU and ATS winning streak after losing at Purdue on Feb. 20. To say that Thad Matta’s team dominated their last four matches is not an exaggeration. OSU has won those games by an average of 22.3 points, which includes the 93-65 emasculation of the Badgers to close out the regular season. Jared Sullinger put in 22 points with eight rebounds in that contest.
Northwestern (18-12 SU, 12-12 ATS) may not have had a great Big Ten campaign, but they’re going to try and make up for it now. The Wildcats outlasted Minnesota 75-65 as one-point favorites on Thursday afternoon’s tourney opener. Michael Thompson was a one-man wrecking crew with 35 points, four rebounds and four assists. It’s Northwestern’s second straight ATS win, with the first one also coming against the Golden Gophers.
The ‘Cats are just 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS as double-digit pups this season. The lone ATS win came in a 58-57 loss to the Buckeyes as 10-point home ‘dogs on Jan. 29.
Northwestern has seen the ‘under’ go 3-2 in its last five games of the year.
OSU has seen the ‘over’ cash in seven of its final eight games of the regular season.
The Bucks are 16-0 SU, but 6-10 ATS when listed as double-digit favorites. The ‘under’ is 10-6 in those matches.
Either the Fighting Illini or Wolverines await the winner of this game on Saturday at 1:40 p.m. EST on CBS.
Michigan vs. Illinois
Better seeding in the NCAA tournament is most likely on the line when the Fighting Illini and Wolverines hit the court on Friday afternoon. The betting shops have installed Illinois as a three-point “chalk” with a total of 126 for this game.
Michigan (19-12 SU, 17-8 ATS) made a strong case for itself after finishing off the regular season with a road win against the Golden Gophers and then come home to sweep the Spartans. Gamblers have enjoyed taking the Wolverines ever since the end of January, going 10-1 ATS in their final 11 Big Ten battles. The ‘over’ is 6-2 in their last eight conference games. That has John Beilein’s crew posted at 15/1 at Sportsbook.com to win this tourney.
Illinois (19-12 SU, 16-13-1 ATS) could have really been one of the favorites for this tourney, but stumbled to a 2-3 SU finish in conference action. However, the Illini came through with a 3-1-1 ATS mark in that timeframe. As bad as Bruce Weber’s team has been going recently, they’re still listed at 12/1 to cut down the nets in Indy.
The Fighting Illini won their lone meeting with Michigan 54-52 on Feb. 16. However, the Wolverines easily cashed as 9 ½-point road pups in that contest.
Prior to that February meeting, Illinois had been on a 3-0 SU and ATS run before that loss. The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head contests.
The Illini have been single-digit favorites 14 times this season, posting a 9-5 SU and 7-7 ATS record. However, they’re 1-3 ATS in their last four games in that role. The ‘under’ is 8-6 on the whole of that situation.
Michigan has been a great wager as an underdog as of late, evidenced by a 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS mark.
The winner of this game will take on either Ohio State or Northwestern at 1:40 p.m. EST on Saturday on CBS.
Michigan State vs. Purdue
Michigan State (18-13 SU, 10-19-1 ATS) picked up a huge 66-61 come from behind win against the Hawkeyes to keep its NCAA tourney hopes alive. Yet they couldn’t cover the spread as a 7 ½-point favorite in its Big Ten tournament opener. If recent gambling standing was criteria for bubble teams to making the big dance, then the Spartans are hurting right now having dropped to 1-3 ATS in their last four games.
Outside of the head scratching loss to the Hawkeyes in the regular season finale, Purdue (25-6 SU, 18-10 ATS) is still one of the best teams in the nation. The Boilermakers had been on a seven-game win streak before losing to Iowa in the finale, going 6-1 ATS in that time. We’ve also paid attention to the fact that the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run for them as well.
The season series went to the Boilers as they won and covered the spread in both meetings against Sparty. Purdue’s most recent triumph against Michigan State came as a one-point road favorite in a 67-47 decision on Feb. 27. JaJuan Johnson destroyed the Spartans in that game with 20 points, 17 rebounds and seven blocked shots.
We shouldn’t be shocked by Purdue’s dominance in that game because they’re 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in those battles to boot.
The Boilermakers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as faves, with the ‘under’ going 4-3.
Michigan State has only been an underdog seven times this season. When placed in that role, Tom Izzo’s club is 2-5 SU but 4-3 ATS. The ‘under’ is 4-3 in that stretch.
Penn State or Wisconsin will be facing the victor of this contest at 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday on CBS.
Penn State vs. Wisconsin – 9:00 p.m. EST, Big Ten Network
It may be a faint glimmer, but the dream of a berth in the big dance is still alive for Penn State (17-13 SU, 15-11 ATS). The Nittany Lions had some issues with Indiana on Thursday night, but got the 61-55 win as five-point favorites to move into the quarterfinals. PSU has been a bettor’s best friend recently by going 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games. The ‘over’ is on a nice 4-1 run for us, too.
Wisconsin (23-7 SU, 15-11 ATS) walks into this contest having serious ax to grind. A 93-65 beatdown at Ohio State on national television will tend to do that if it’s your regular season finale. That loss broke up a nice four-game win streak that saw the Badgers cover the spread in two of them. The real surprise for Wisky is that they’ve seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in its last seven games. That’s coming from a team with a Top 10 scoring defense.
Before you think this will be a cakewalk for the Badgers, take a step back. These two teams have split the season series with the home team winning. However, the Nittany Lions have covered the number in the last three meetings. The ‘under’ is on a strong 5-2 run in the last seven head-to-head tests.
The winner of this battle will get to take on either Purdue or Michigan State at 4:00 p.m. EST on CBS on Saturday.
vegasinsider.com
Mid-Major Report
By Chris David
Friday’s Update
This column will provide daily betting updates from the Atlantic 10, Mid-American Conference (MAC) and Conference USA (CUSA) throughout Championship Week.
A10 – Quarterfinals
The venue for this tournament is Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey, which has a capacity of roughly 12,000. This will be the fifth year that the conference holds its postseason event here and lately it’s been all about Temple. The Owls have captured the last three championships, with George Washington winning the inaugural event in 2007 from this venue.
Since the A10 allows all 12 members to compete in the conference tournament, the first round was played on Tuesday with the higher seeds hosting those games. Surprisingly, the road teams stepped up in the first round, capturing three of the four matchups. St. Joseph’s 71-59 overtime victory against George Washington as an eight-point underdog was the biggest upset. This wasn’t the only A10 game that witnessed an extra session, the other being La Salle and St. Bonaventure. In that affair, the Explorers nipped the Bonnies 75-73 in double-overtime. Surprisingly, the game still slid ‘under the closing total of 150. Even though that game went ‘under’ the other three first round matchups jumped ‘over’ their numbers.
(9) Dayton vs. (1) Xavier
Today’s action starts with a pair of Ohio schools and we could see a competitive game when you look at recent history. Xavier won both regular season meetings (81-76, 66-62) against Dayton but they were decided by a combined nine points. The Musketeers are favored (-7) over the Flyers and they’ve been golden to gamblers lately. Xavier closed the season with nine straight victories (7-2 against the spread) and only one of those teams was able to score more than 70-plus points. Dayton did drop 78 in its first round win over UMass on Tuesday but only mustered up a high of 62 in its three previous games, all losses too.
(12) St. Joseph’s vs. (4) Duquesne
With St. Joseph’s capturing the upset, Duquesne gets somewhat of a free pass here and the oddsmakers have taken notice. The Dukes have been made 10-point favorites and it might be hard to back the school here. If you look at its last eight, Duquesne has gone 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. Also, the ‘under’ has gone 6-2 during this span. The Dukes did beat the Hawks 75-63 in their only meeting, but that occurred on Jan. 5.
(10) La Salle vs. (2) Temple
The Owls captured both regular season meetings over the Explorers, including a 90-82 victory just last Saturday on Mar. 5. The total went 1-1. Laying 10 points with Temple might be considered risky, even though it’s gone 9-1 to close the season. You ask why? Because the Owls are 4-6 ATS during this run and that includes a 1-5 ATS mark as a double-digit favorite. Today’s line is hovering just around 10 points.
(6) Rhode Island vs. (3) Richmond
The Spiders have been installed as six-point favorites over the Rams and deservingly so. Richmond is arguably the best team in the conference and it’s playing great basketball, closing the season with four straight wins and covers. Another strong reason to back Richmond is its road record, which stands at 13-3 outside of Virginia. Despite those facts, the two schools met once this season and Rhode Island captured a 78-74 victory as a nine-point road underdog. Two things to note; the game was played on Jan. 13 and the Spiders couldn’t buy a shot (38%) from the field.
MAC - Semifinals
The first round of the MAC tournament was on Tuesday, with the higher seed hosting. Not surprisingly, the action concluded with all four home teams winning in double-digit fashion. Those winners moved on to Cleveland yesterday for quarterfinal play and three of the four succumbed to the higher seeds. The lone winner was sixth-seed Akron, which wasn’t really an upset. The Zips defeated Miami, Ohio 82-75 in overtime as a 3 ½-point favorite. Some folks are pointing to yesterday’s Virginia-Miami (Fl.) outcome as the Bad Beat of the Day but the total in this one was to remember as well. Akron led Miami 26-10 at half but somehow the score was knotted 63-63 after 40 minutes. The extra session helped the combined 157 points jump ‘over’ the closing number of 132. After eight games, favorites have gone 6-2 straight up and 5-3 against the spread. The ‘under’ stands at 6-2. Tip-off for tonight’s double-header begins at 7:05 p.m. EST.
(6) Akron vs. (2) Western Michigan
Even though Western Michigan is the top seed, Akron has owned them. The Zips have won five straight and nine of the last 10 head-to-head battles. In the lone affair this season, Akron captured an 83-71 decision as a 6 ½-point home favorite. Total players should note that even though WMU watched its quarterfinal win against Bowling Green go ‘under’ yesterday the ‘over’ has gone 20-8 on the season.
(4) Ball State vs. (1) Kent State
Most didn’t expect Ball State to outlast Ohio yesterday but that win earned the school against top-seed Kent State. Including yesterday’s win over Buffalo (73-62), the Golden Flashes have won five of six and three in a row (3-0 ATS). Kent played Ball State in late January and earned a 66-52 road victory.
CUSA - Semifinals
This group was considered a one-bid league and after watching top-seed UAB choke to East Carolina (75-70) yesterday, it would be difficult to see anybody else but this year’s CUSA champion playing in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. All of the remaining higher seeds advanced to the semifinals. After eight matchups, favorites and underdogs (4-4 SU and ATS) have fought to a stalemate. The ‘over’ has produced a 5-3 ledger. Today’s action from El Paso, Texas starts at 4:00 p.m. EST and will be televised on CSTV. The championship will be played at 11:00 a.m. EST on Saturday.
(8) East Carolina vs. (4) Memphis
Is it smart to bet against an East Carolina team that is playing with confidence? Or do you think fatigue will affect the Pirates today? Three games in three days are tough for anybody, but it's hard to ignore that ECU has now won and covered five of its last six. Memphis did enough to beat Southern Mississippi (66-63) yesterday but how do you back a team that is 8-20 ATS (28%) on the season. The schools played twice this season and the host captured both victories. The ‘under’ easily cashed in both games.
(2) Tulsa vs. (3) UTEP
It’s going to be a tough test for Tulsa in this matchup, considering its playing a true road game against the Miners from El Paso. However, the Golden Hurricane has gone 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10, which includes four straight wins. UTEP will have the support of the crowd, which should help a team that has won and covered four in a row. It’s hard to gauge the regular season affairs that were split between the two, since they occurred in January. UTEP won its home game by 10 (69-59) while Tulsa barely captured a one-point (69-68) decision on its homecourt.
Big East Tournament: Semifinals Preview and Picks
Connecticut Huskies vs. Syracuse Orange
THE STORY: Ninth-seeded Connecticut is attempting to make history as the first school to win the Big East Championship by playing five games in five days. After Kemba Walker’s heroics in the quarterfinals on Thursday, anything seems possible for the No. 19 Huskies. Fourth-seeded Syracuse has won six straight after taking down St. John’s in the quarterfinals and will be fighting for prime NCAA tournament seeding when the Reds Storm faces UConn on Friday in the semifinals at Madison Square Garden.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Syracuse snapped a four-game losing streak with a 66-58 victory at Connecticut on Feb. 2. Triche scored 16 points and Rick Jackson added 13 points and 13 boards for the Orange, while Walker was held to eight points on 3-of-14 shooting. Two years ago, the Huskies and Orange played a six-overtime thriller in the Big East tournament, with Syracuse coming out on top, 127-117.
PREDICTION: Syracuse 74, UConn 69
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Louisville Cardinals
THE STORY: It will be bombs away Friday night when Notre Dame meets Louisville in the second semifinal of the Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden in New York. The Big East’s top 3-point shooting teams meet after each dismissed their opponents in blowout wins Thursday. Third-seeded Louisville has only one loss in the last month, while second-seeded Notre Dame has dropped only one game in the last two months.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: It was the inside game that propelled Notre Dame late to an 89-79 overtime win in South Bend on Feb. 9. Carleton Scott had 18 points and eight boards in a game that saw both teams shoot better than 42 percent from 3-point land. The Cardinals defended the perimeter well in spots but were rocked in transition, where Ben Hansbrough does his dirtiest damage from long range.
PREDICTION: Notre Dame 81, Louisville 78
Big 12 Tournament: Semifinals Preview and Picks
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Kansas Jayhawks
THE STORY: If top-seeded Kansas was going to be put on upset alert at this week's Big 12 tournament, it wasn't expected to happen before Friday's semifinals. But after surviving a scare against Oklahoma State in Thursday's quarterfinals, the second-ranked Jayhawks should be wide awake when they face Colorado in a semifinal matchup at 7 p.m. Friday at Sprint Center. The Buffaloes advanced with their third win in three games against Kansas State this season; now they have to try to avoid suffering the same fate against the Jayhawks, who swept the regular-season series.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: The Jayhawks eked out an 82-78 win in Boulder, Colo., on Jan. 25 and blew out the Buffaloes 89-63 at Allen Fieldhouse on Feb. 19 to run their winning streak against Colorado to 17 games.
PREDICTION: Kansas 77, Colorado 64
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Texas Longhorns
THE STORY: No team from the Lone Star State has ever won the Big 12 tournament title, but one team will have a chance to change that Saturday. Texas and Texas A&M will make that determination when they square off in the semifinals Friday in Kansas City, Mo. The second-seeded Longhorns are 0-5 all-time in the championship game, while the third-seeded Aggies have never made the final.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: The Longhorns won a pair of lopsided games in the regular season, 81-60 at home Jan. 19 and 69-49 at Texas A&M on Jan. 31. Jordan Hamilton averaged 23.5 points.
PREDICTION: Texas 62, Texas A&M 60
Pac-10 Tournament: Semifinals Preview and Picks
USC Trojans vs. Arizona Wildcats
THE STORY: After cruising to impressive wins in the quarterfinals, top seed Arizona and fourth-seeded Southern Cal meet Friday in the semifinals of the Pac-10 tournament in Los Angeles. Pac-10 Player of the Year Derrick Williams leads No. 15 Arizona, which is seeking its first tournament title since 2002. Southern Cal has won six of its last seven, but the Trojans need at least one more win to remain on the NCAA tournament bubble.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Arizona and Southern Cal split this season. Arizona won 82-73 in Tucson on Jan. 29 as the Wildcats shot 61 percent from the field, and Derrick Williams and Lamont Jones combined for 37 points. The Trojans stunned then-No. 10 Arizona 65-57 on Feb. 24 in Los Angeles as Nikola Vucevic scored 10 of his game-high 25 points in the last four minutes.
PREDICTION: USC 72, Arizona 68
Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies
THE STORY: Washington likely locked up an at-large NCAA tournament bid Thursday with its quarterfinal win over Washington State and continues its march toward the postseason in the semifinals Friday night. Washington will meet an Oregon team that has already knocked off Arizona State and UCLA in Los Angeles and holds onto an outside shot of securing an automatic NCAA berth by winning the conference tournament. The Ducks are making their first Pac-10 semifinals appearance since 2007, when they won the tournament.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Washington and Oregon split the regular season series, with Washington winning 87-69 in Seattle on Jan. 6 and Oregon winning 81-76 in Eugene on Feb. 5. Washington played well in both contests, but committed 10 first-half turnovers in the loss in February. Oregon will need another big game form Singler as the Huskies compiled significant rebounding advantages in both games.
PREDICTION: Washington 85, Oregon 81
ACC Tournament: Day 2 Preview and Picks
Miami Hurricanes vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
THE STORY: Miami is riding high after one of the most stunning come-from-behind victories in ACC Tournament history, a 69-62 overtime decision over Virginia in Thursday’s first-round game and now get a shot a top-seeded North Carolina. The Tar Heels endured some growing pains early in the season, but are playing their best basketball of the year now and appear poised for yet another run at both the ACC and NCAA championships. Their impressive win over rival Duke to close the regular season on Saturday night was not only their seventh consecutive victory and 12th over the last 13 games, but also clinched their 18th outright conference regular-season title and 28th overall.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Miami and North Carolina met once earlier this season, with the Tar Heels narrowly winning 74-71 in Coral Gables, Fla., on Jan. 26. Harrison Barnes drained a clutch 3-pointer with 14 seconds left as the Tar Heels rallied to victory from an early 14-point deficit. The Canes buried a season-high 13 3-pointers in that contest.
PREDICTION: UNC 69, Miami 60
Boston College Eagles vs. Clemson Tigers
THE STORY: Boston College breezed into Friday’s quarterfinal and padded their NCAA Tournament resume by easily dispatching 12th-seeded Wake Forest, 81-67, in Thursday’s tournament first-round game. The Eagles connected on 10 3-pointers in claiming their fourth consecutive victory. The Tigers, who enjoyed a bye on Thursday, haven’t played since beating Virginia Tech in last Saturday’s regular season finale at Littlejohn Coliseum to assure a fifth consecutive 20-win season. The reality, however, is that the loser of this game will likely be resigned to the NIT.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Boston College and Clemson met just once earlier this season, with the Tigers winning 77-69 at Clemson on Feb. 8. Jerai Grant scored 17 points and Stitt added 16 more as the Tigers held off a furious Eagles rally from 17 points down with 8:22 left.
PREDICTION: Boston College 65, Clemson 62
Maryland Terrapins vs. Duke Blue Devils
THE STORY: When No. 2 seed Duke and No. 7 Maryland clash in an ACC tournament quarterfinal Friday in Greensboro, N.C., it should be an offensive show. Both teams average at least 77 points per game. Duke has by far the better backcourt, while Maryland should have the edge inside with 6-foot-10 sophomore Jordan Williams. The Blue Devils are playing for NCAA tournament seeding. Maryland needs a win to even get into the NCAA discussion.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: The Blue Devils swept Maryland 80-62 in College Park, Md., and 71-64 at home. Kyle Singler dominated with a combined 47 points and 16 rebounds, and the Terps hit only 5 of 23 from 3-point range. Jordan Williams did his damage with 43 points and 23 rebounds, but the Blue Devils clamped down on his supporting cast. Duke has won eight of the last nine meetings.
PREDICTION: Duke 77, Maryland 69
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Florida State Seminoles
THE STORY: No. 3 seed Florida State could get leading scorer Chris Singleton back for Friday's ACC quarterfinal against Virginia Tech in Greensboro, N.C. Singleton has missed five games with a broken foot, but coach Leonard Hamilton said the 6-foot-9 junior, an All-ACC Defensive Team pick, is "awful close." The Seminoles appear to be a lock for the NCAA tournament, while the Hokies might need this one to get in. Virginia Tech is desperate to avoid a fourth straight trip to the NIT.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: The Hokies won the only regular-season meeting 71-59 in Blacksburg, Va., as Jeff Allen had 24 points and 11 rebounds. Chris Singleton had 22 points and eight rebounds for the Seminoles, who shot 35.5 percent. Florida State won the previous three meetings and leads the all-time series 25-18.
PREDICTION: Floridia State 64, Virginia Tech 59
SEC Tournament: Day 2 Preview and Picks
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
THE STORY: Although each team has won 20 games, the prevailing opinion is that neither is currently assured a spot in the NCAA tournament. If that's the case, this could essentially be a play-in game for the Big Dance. Each team has their own glaring weakness. Georgia has almost no depth and sometimes settles for jump shots instead of looking for points inside. Alabama's mediocre offense can sometimes be overwhelmed by a good zone defense, as its outside shooting ability, especially from 3-point range, isn't the best.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Alabama beat Georgia 65-57 in Tuscaloosa on the final day of the regular season. The difference was turnovers; Alabama converted 16 Georgia turnovers into 20 points, while Georgia only managed 10 points off 10 Alabama turnovers. Alabama leads the all-time series 89-47.
PREDICTION: Alabama 63, Georgia 61
Mississippi Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats
THE STORY: Many observers believe No. 16 Kentucky, which finished second in the East Division, should be favored to defend its SEC tournament title. The Wildcats have won four of their last five entering the tournament, including a convincing win over Tennessee in the season finale. It all depends on how the Wildcats fare on a neutral court; they were unbeaten at home, but only average on the road this season. Kentucky has had great success in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, dubbed "Cat-lanta" by its followers since the Wildcats have won five SEC Tournaments there. It definitely helped Kentucky to get a first-round bye, since it is essentially a six-man team and will benefit by playing one fewer tournament game. Ole Miss has nothing to lose. The Rebels have won 20 games but are headed for the NIT unless they win the conference championship.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Ole Miss stunned the Wildcats 71-69 on Feb. 1, thanks to a last-second 3-pointer by Chris Warren. That was the Rebels first win over a top-20 team since 2002. Kentucky leads the all-time series 97-13. The Wildcats are 14-0 against Ole Miss in the SEC tournament and sc
PREDICTION: Kentucky 79, Ole Miss 67
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators
THE STORY: Few teams are playing as well as No. 12 Florida, which meets Tennessee on Friday in the SEC quarterfinals at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. The Gators have won eight of nine and earned a first-round bye as the SEC East champ. Tennessee blew a 16-point, second-half lead in its tournament opener against Arkansas before recovering to win 74-68. Florida swept Tennessee this season, the first win coming in overtime and the second by one point.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Florida won both meetings, barely. The Gators prevailed 81-75 in overtime in Knoxville on Jan. 11, and escaped 61-60 at home on Feb. 12 on Erving Walker’s driving layup with 14 seconds left. Scotty Hopson was outstanding in defeat, with 22 points, five rebounds, four assists and two steals. Florida has won three straight over Tennessee, but the Vols took 10 of the previous 12.
PREDICTION: Florida 75, Tennessee 71
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
THE STORY: John Jenkins, the SEC’s leading scorer at 19.4 points per game, is expected back when Vanderbilt plays Mississippi State on Friday in the SEC tournament quarterfinals in Atlanta. Jenkins, a sophomore guard, missed Thursday’s 62-50 win over LSU with a left foot injury. The Commodores didn’t need him against the lowly Tigers, but they will against the surging Bulldogs, who have won three straight.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Vanderbilt won the only regular-season meeting 81-74 in Starkville, Miss., as Jeffery Taylor scored 25 points. John Jenkins added 21 points and made all nine of his free throws. Johnson led the Bulldogs with 19, and junior guard Dee Bost scored 18. It was Vanderbilt's first win in Starkville since 1993. Vanderbilt leads the series 7-5 in games on neutral floors, but Mississippi State defeated the Commodores 62-52 in last year's SEC semifinals.
PREDICTION: Mississippi State 64, Vanderbilt 62