Big Ten Quarterfinals
By Judd Hall
Six teams started the Big Ten Tournament off in Indianapolis’ Conseco Field House on Thursday. Now three of those teams have been sent back to campus to think about what could have been. Friday’s quarterfinals slate is loaded with matchups that could potentially change the NCAA Tournament landscape.
Ohio State vs. Michigan – 12:00 p.m. EST, ESPN
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has listed Ohio State (24-7 straight up, 16-12 against the spread) as an 8 ½-point favorite with a total of 122.
The Buckeyes would have to be considered the hottest team in the Big Ten right now. After all, they’ve won 10 of their last 11 contests. Yet OSU has gone just 6-5 ATS in that stretch, but that is a bit misleading. Thad Matta’s program is coming into this quarterfinal match having gone 3-1 SU and ATS to close out the regular season.
Ohio State was clicking in its 73-57 regular season finale over the Fighting Illini as a 10-point home favorite on March 2. The Bucks were able to hit 44 percent of their shots from the field, while stealing the ball eight times from Illinois. Evan Turner pushed through 16 points and 12 rebounds to help pace the Buckeyes.
Matta’s crew is still in the hunt for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in spite of losses to North Carolina, Butler, Minnesota and West Virginia.
Michigan (15-16 SU, 13-13-1 ATS) is coming into this tilt after dumping the Hawkeyes 59-52 as a seven-point favorite in Thursday’s opening round. Manny Harris was the driving force for the Wolverines with 22 points, nine rebounds and three steals.
The Wolverines did beat Ohio State in Ann Arbor as a two-point home “chalk” 73-64 on Jan. 3, but that was when Turner was out with his back injury. When the Buckeyes had Turner at full strength on Feb. 27, they won as 12 ½-point home favorites 66-55.
Ohio State has been practically automatic when listed as the “chalk,” evidenced by a 19-1 SU and 14-6 ATS this season. The ‘under’ is also a healthy 11-6 in that time frame.
Michigan has gone just 3-7 SU this year when posted as an underdog. But they have been a gambler’s best friend by going 8-2 ATS. The ‘under’ is 8-1 in this situation for John Beilein.
Wisconsin vs. Illinois – 2:30 p.m. EST, ESPN
LVSC has opened this contest up with Wisconsin (23-7 SU, 16-11 ATS) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 122.
The Badgers have been riding high as they’ve won four straight games, covering in three of them. A lot of Wisky’s success is in playing stingy defense, which is giving up 56.1 points per game this year. Only Princeton and Northern Iowa have allowed fewer points to opponents. That efficiency on defense led to wins over No. 4 Purdue, No. 5 Michigan State and No. 6 Duke in Madison for the Badgers. And that play style for Bo Ryan’s team has turned into one of the better ‘under’ clubs to wager on with a 17-9 mark.
Illinois (18-13 SU, 11-18 ATS) finds itself precariously resting on the NCAA Tournament bubble after losing five of its last six contests to close out the regular season. Gamblers have done well to fade them during this skid as the Fighting Illini are 2-4 ATS in that stretch.
All is not bad for the Illini though as they have home wins over Michigan State and Vanderbilt. Plus they have a win at the Kohl Center against Wisconsin (its only home loss this year) and rallied from 23 down to beat Clemson back on Dec. 2.
While Weber’s crew has those wins to their credit, they’ll need a win on Friday to get themselves off of the bubble. Illinois does have a road win against the Badgers, but you’re only as good as your last game. The Illini were lacking in a lot of areas last Sunday in a 72-57 loss to Wisconsin as three-point home pups. Wisky was able to out rebound the Illini 40-29 and that will help actuate the fact that they only hit 36 percent from the field. Mike Tisdale did score 16 point for Illinois, but Jordan Taylor was the top performer. The Badgers’ guard picked up 20 point and eight rebounds.
We shouldn’t be shocked by Wisconsin’s domination in that game as they’ve gone 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five fixtures.
Illinois has not been a great underdog this season, evidenced by a 5-8 SU and 7-6 ATS mark. The ‘over’ has gone 8-5 in those contests as well.
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Big East Semifinals
By Brian Edwards
The bank was open until nearly midnight at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night. Da’Sean Butler took an inbound pass with three seconds left, dribbled to his left and faded away before burying a game-winning trey with Cincinnati’s Lance Stephenson all up in his grill. Butler’s shot got backboard first, then nets to lift West Va. to a 54-51 win in the nightcap game of the Big East Tournament quarterfinals.
The Mountaineers advanced to tonight’s semifinals to face Notre Dame. They led Cincy for 39 minutes and 54 seconds, but it appeared the Bearcats might pull out a nail-biter for a third straight night in the final minute. Stephenson, the freshman back at home in New York, had carried Mick Cronin’s team back into the game in the final minutes. He scored on a variety of drives to the rim and a dead-on 3 that tied the game at 51-51.
After an ugly possession by WVU, Cincy had the ball on the far baseline with six ticks left. However, sophomore Dion Dixon lost control of his dribble and eventually lost the ball out of bounds. (Am I the only one that wanted to see a replay from a different angle because official Jim Burr clearly got baited into the call by Bob Huggins and didn’t see whether the ball went off Dixon’s leg or not?)
The underdogs had been barking at MSG all day and night. Georgetown started the day by beating Syracuse 91-84 as a six-point underdog. Chris Wright scored a game-high 27 points for the Hoyas, who closed at plus-220 for money-line plays (paid $220 on $100 bets).
In the other day game, Marquette sent Villanova home early thanks to the heroics of Lazar Hayward, who scored 20 points and hit a monster trey at crunch time to propel his team to an 80-76 win. The Golden Eagles won outright as five-point underdogs to hook up money-line backers with a plus-180 payout (paid $180 on $100 wagers).
Notre Dame stayed hot by beating Pittsburgh 50-45 for its sixth straight win. The Irish have covered the number in seven straight outings after beating the Panthers as two-point puppies. Even better, the parlay combination of Notre Dame and the ‘under’ has been good in its last six assignments.
Luke Harangody and Tory Jackson scored 12 points apiece for the winners. ‘Gody’s free throws in the final seconds put the game on ice.
The Irish move on to face Bob Huggins’ bunch. There was no overight line for this contest. Mike Brey’s team knocked off the Mountaineers 70-68 as a 4 ½-point home underdog way back on Jan. 9.
The Notre Dame defense stymied Butler into a miserable 4-for-20 shooting performance at the Joyce Center. Harangody scored 24 points on the ‘Neers, while Ben Hansbrough had six points, nine rebounds and 10 assists.
As for Georgetown-Marquette, most books had the Hoyas as three-point ‘chalk’ as of early this morning. The total was in the 130-131 range. These schools met back on Jan. 6 in Milwaukee, where the Golden Eagles collected a 62-59 win as 1 ½-point home favorites.
The underdogs went 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS in the Big East quarterfinals. The 'over' hit in the two early games, but the night games saw the 'under' prevail twice.
ESPN will have television coverage of tonight's Big East doubleheader at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
vegasinsider.com.
SEC Tourney Quarterfinals
By Brian Edwards
The SEC Tournament quarterfinals will tip off at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Friday in Nashville at the Bridgestone Center. Kentucky will have its legion of fans firmly behind it in what will truly amount to a home game in terms of crowd noise in favor of the beloved Wildcats, who face Alabama. Then Tennessee and Ole Miss will go at it in a game the Rebels absolutely have to have in order to be considered by the Selection Committee. Let’s take a look at these early games.
**Kentucky vs. Alabama**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Kentucky (29-2 straight up, 16-13 against the spread) as a 12-point favorite with a total of 134. However, as of late Thursday night, most books had UK favored by 9 1/2 with a total of 134 1/2.
Alabama (17-14 SU, 13-13-2 ATS) advanced to the SEC Tournament quarterfinals by virtue of Thursday’s 68-63 comeback win over South Carolina as a two-point ‘chalk.’ The Crimson Tide trailed by 18 in the second half, only to rally to victory in stark contrast to the many leads they let get away during the regular season. Mikhail Torrance dropped in a team-high 17 points for the winners, while Justin Knox added 16 points and seven rebounds.
Kentucky is the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament for the first time since 2005. The Wildcats are also going to be a top seed in next week’s NCAA Tournament. They have the Player of the Year candidate in Wall, who leads UK in scoring (16.9 points per game) assists (6.1 APG) and steals (1.8 per game). Most importantly, Wall has demonstrated a propensity for making a plethora of winning plays at crunch time.
Anthony Grant’s team owns a 5-7-2 spread record in 14 games as an underdog.
When these teams met at Rupp Arena on Feb. 9, UK won a 66-55 decision but the Tide took the cash as a 15-point underdog. John Wall scored a game-high 22 points and pulled down 10 rebounds. Tony Mitchell had 13 points and seven boards for ‘Bama.
The ‘under’ is 17-9-1 overall for the Tide, while UK has watched totals turn out as a wash (14-14 overall) for bettors.
The SEC Network will have the telecast at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Ole Miss vs. Tennessee**
LVSC opened Tennessee (24-7 SU, 12-15-1 ATS) as a 2 1/2-point favorite, but the number was down to one at most books by late Thursday night. The total was 137.
Although Tennessee is a lock for the NCAA Tournament and Ole Miss (21-9 SU, 16-9-1 ATS) is on the bubble, it was the Rebels who had the first-round bye and watched the Vols in action on Thursday. UT looked lethargic from the get-go and the overall play set the sport back several years. Nevertheless, Bruce Pearl’s team advanced by beating LSU 59-49, but the Tigers covered the number as 11 ½-point underdogs. Needless to day, the ‘under’ was an easy winner.
Wayne Chism was one of UT’s few bright spots against LSU, finishing with 17 points and 11 rebounds. The win was the fourth straight for the Vols, but we should not their 3-6 ATS mark in their last nine outings.
Ole Miss (SU, ATS) got nothing but good news for its at-large hopes Thursday. For starters, Memphis and UAB lost to most likely doom their NCAA hopes. Also, Cal stayed alive in the Pac-10 Tournament, while Kansas St. – which represents the Rebels best non-conference victory – destroyed Oklahoma St. in the Big 12 Tourney. These developments put Andy Kennedy’s team in better position for Selection Sunday, assuming of course, that it can knock off the Vols.
Ole Miss has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s crucial comeback win at Arkansas by a 68-66 score. Chris Warren was the catalyst with 31 points, as the Rebels hooked up their backers as 1 ½-point favorites.
When these schools collided in Knoxville back on Jan. 16. Tennessee prevailed in overtime by a 71-69 count. However, Ole Miss covered the spread as a seven-point underdog. Chism dominated in the lane, producing 26 points and 12 rebounds. Warren had a team-high 19 points in the losing effort, but he was just 5-for-18 from the field.
**Gators and Dawgs advance**
In all likelihood, Florida’s win over Auburn last night will put it in the NCAA Tournament field, especially when considering Thursday’s losses by bubble teams like Memphis, UAB and Arizona State. (Washington also was trailing by nine at halftime against Oregon St.)
The Gators took the cash against the Tigers in a 78-69 win as 5 ½-point favorites. They advance to face Mississippi St. tonight at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. There was no overnight line for this contest.
Alex Tyus was the catalyst for UF, which snapped a three-game losing streak and improved to 21-11 overall. Tyus finished with 24 points on 11-of-16 shooting, while Chandler Parsons chipped in with 21 points.
Gamblers should take note of the Gators’ perfect record against SEC West schools this year. They knocked off Mississippi St. 69-62 as a three-point home favorite on Feb. 6. Vernon Macklin came out of nowhere to score 20 points in the lane against the NCAA’s all-time leading shot blocker, Jarvis Varnado, who had only one rejection on that day. Macklin has been a steady force offensively since emerging against the Bulldogs.
MSU sophomore point guard Dee Bost, who committed nine turnovers in the loss in Gainesville, has a hip injury that may slow him.
After last night's win over Auburn, one that likely will result in Jeff Lebo's dismissal, Billy Donovan told the Associated Press, “(Mississippi State is) a team that really has great speed, great athleticism. They really stretch you on defense because they do shoot the 3 from four different positions and they have a guy they can throw it inside to in (Jarvis) Varnado.”
Georgia ended a turbulent season for Arkansas sometime after midnight this morning. Trey Thompkins enjoyed a stellar performance, finishing with 23 points, 14 rebounds and six assists to lead UGA to a 77-64 win as a 1 ½-point underdog.
Mark Fox’s team will now face Vanderbilt. The Dawgs spanked the Commodores 72-58 in Athens and let a late lead get away in regulation at Vandy. Kevin Stallings’ squad eventually won 96-94 in overtime, but the Dawgs covered the spread while catching 12 points.
vegasinsider.com.
ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT
(at Atlantic City, N.J.)
Dayton (20-11, 13-14-1 ATS) vs. (24) Xavier (23-7, 19-10 ATS)
The Flyers damaged their Big Dance hopes by dropping five of their final seven games to end the regular season, going 1-5-1 ATS. However, Dayton got back on track just in time with Monday’s 70-60 home win over George Washington in the opening round of the Atlantic 10 tournament, but came up short as an 11½-point favorite. The Flyers finished in the middle of the Atlantic 10 pack and are now 9-8 in conference play (6-10-1 ATS). They’re also just 5-9 in road/neutral-site games (5-8 ATS in lined action).
Xavier closed the regular season on a seven-game winning streak (5-2 ATS) to finish 14-2 in league play, gain a share of the conference title with Temple and earn a first-round bye. However, the Musketeers lost the tiebreaker and are the No. 2 seed in this event. They come into today having won 15 of 17 overall, the only defeats coming on the road in conference to Temple (77-72) and Dayton (90-50). Since getting crushed at Dayton, Xavier has won four straight on the road, including a 12-point non-conference victory at Florida.
Not only did the Flyers hand Xavier its worst defeat of the season with that 25-point rout as a 3½-point favorite on Feb. 6, but they also gave the Musketeers a scare three weeks earlier, falling 78-74 but cashing as a five-point road underdog. Dayton has cashed in four of the last five meetings following a 5-0 ATS run by Xavier. Also, the chalk has taken the cash in 13 of the last 17 in this rivalry.
Dayton’s current 1-6-1 ATS slump has come entirely within conference, and the Flyers are also 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral-site games. Conversely, Xavier is on ATS runs of 34-16-2 overall, 34-16-1 at neutral courts, 8-3 in conference, 7-3 after a SU win, 6-2 following a non-cover and 4-0 on Friday.
The Flyers have topped the total in four of five against winning teams, while Xavier carries “over” trends of 15-7 overall, 13-4 after a SU win, 11-3 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against winning teams. However, the Musketeers have stayed below the total in 10 of their last 11 at neutral venues. Finally, these teams have hurdled the total in four of their last five clashes, including the last three in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: XAVIER and OVER
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Greensboro, N.C.)
Georgia Tech (20-11, 13-10-2 ATS) vs. (19) Maryland (23-7, 17-9 ATS)
Georgia Tech snapped a two-game SU and three-game ATS skid with a 62-58 victory over North Carolina on Thursday, pushing as a four-point chalk but still knocking out the defending NCAA champs. The Yellow Jackets are 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) on neutral courts this year, averaging 69 ppg on a solid 48.8 percent shooting, while holding opponents to 62.5 ppg on a stifling 36.1 percent shooting.
Maryland has been on fire the second half of the season, winning seven in a row and 13 of 15 while cashing in six of its last seven games. The Terrapins, who tied Duke for the regular-season ACC crown but are the tourney’s second seed, topped Virginia 74-68 as a five-point chalk Saturday to cap the regular season. Gary Williams’ squad averages 79.8 ppg (15th nationally) while giving up 67.4, allowing just 38.7 percent shooting (11th).
Maryland has ripped off nine consecutive victories in this rivalry (6-3 ATS), although Tech has cashed in two of the last three. In this season’s lone meeting, the Terps won 76-74 at home Feb. 20, but the Jackets easily covered as a 7½-point pup. The underdog has covered in the last four meetings.
The Yellow Jackets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six at neutral sites and are on a 3-1-1 ATS run following a spread-cover, but they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven starts against teams with a winning percentage above .600, and they remain in a 2-6-2 overall rut (all in the ACC). The Terrapins are one of the hottest teams going at the betting window, sporting positive pointspread streaks of 14-3 overall, 22-7 in the ACC, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 5-1 against winning teams. The lone knock: a 1-4 ATS mark in their last five neutral-site starts.
The over for Georgia Tech is on rolls of 4-1 overall (all in ACC play), 7-3 after a spread-cover and 5-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, though the under has gone 11-3 in the Jackets’ last 14 Friday outings. Maryland is on “over” stretches of 18-7-1 overall, 5-0 in the ACC, 5-0 after a SU win, 4-0 after an ATS win, 4-1 at neutral sites and 12-3-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
Finally, last month’s meeting in this rivalry cleared the posted total of 144, ending a 3-1 “under” run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARYLAND and OVER
N.C. State (18-14, 15-13-1 ATS) vs. Florida State (22-8, 8-17 ATS)
North Carolina State is on a 4-1 SU and ATS surge, having opened the ACC tourney Thursday with a 59-57 upset of Clemson as a seven-point underdog. The 11th-seeded Wolfpack are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at neutral sites this season, despite averaging just 62.8 ppg in those contests, succeeding mostly due to a defense that allowed just 54.8 ppg in those four contests. Clemson, though, was the best of that batch, as the other wins came over Auburn, Akron and Austin Peay.
Florida State, seeded fourth, is making a late-season push for Big Dance inclusion, having won five of its last six (3-3 ATS, all in ACC), including the last two in a row. On Saturday at Miami, the Seminoles squeaked out a 61-60 victory, but fell just short as a 1½-point chalk in taking their third straight ATS setback. Florida State, which went 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) on neutral floors this year, fields the nation’s No. 1 shooting defense, allowing foes to hit just 37.2 percent from the floor for 60.2 ppg (19th), while averaging 69.0 ppg on offense.
N.C. State notched an 88-81 road upset of Florida State as a hefty 11-point pup on Jan. 12, ending a 3-1 SU and ATS run by the ‘Noles in this rivalry. The SU winner is on a 17-0 ATS firestorm, the ‘Pack are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 clashes, and the pup has covered in the last four meetings.
The Wolfpack are on a 5-8 ATS dive in their last 13 games and are 3-5 ATS in their last eight following a SU win, but along with their current 4-1 SU and ATS run, they are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 Friday starts. The Seminoles are among the worst spread-covering teams in the country, standing 322nd among 332 teams, and are mired in ATS funks of 4-11 overall (all in ACC action) and 3-11 against winning teams.
N.C. State is on “under” streaks of 6-1 overall (all in the ACC), 7-3 on Friday and 4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, and Florida State is on “under” rolls of 5-1 overall (all in the ACC), 5-0-1 on Friday and 19-6-2 on neutral courts. However, the total has gone high in the last four meetings in this rivalry, and the over is 4-0 for both these teams in their last four outings against winning squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.C. STATE
BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
(at Kansas City, Mo.)
(23) Texas A&M (23-8, 18-9 ATS) vs. (1) Kansas (30-2, 12-16-1 ATS)
The Aggies go in search of their fifth straight victory when they take on the top-ranked and top-seeded Jayhawks in a semifinal contest at the Sprint Center. Texas A&M advanced with Thursday’s 70-64 victory over Nebraska, but fell short at the window as an eight-point favorite. That ended the Aggies’ 10-0 ATS run.
Since getting blown out at Oklahoma State two weeks ago, Kansas has ripped off three straight wins (2-1 ATS), including Thursday’s 80-68 victory over Texas Tech, never coming close to covering as a 17½-point favorite. The Jayhawks led by a basket with 5:55 left but used a 12-0 run to pull away. Sherron Collins had 19 points and six assists and center Cole Aldrich had 12 points and 18 rebounds. The only downside for Kansas is its 3-9 ATS mark in their last 12 games, all against Big 12 foes.
Kansas has won four straight in this rivalry (2-2 ATS) and 10 of the last 11 (6-5 ATS) dating back to the 2001 season. In the only regular-season clash this year, the Jayhawks scored a 59-54 road victory, but just missed as a 6½-point road chalk.
Along with their current 10-1 ATS surge, the Aggies are on spread-covering sprees of 39-19 overall, 7-1 after a SU win, 7-0 against winning teams and 22-8 in the Big 12. The Jayhawks are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600, but the pointspread streaks tumble downward from there, including 2-6 overall (all in the Big 12), 1-6 after a SU win, 2-5 away from home and 3-6 against winning teams.
These teams stayed under the total in their meeting at Texas A&M last month, part of the Aggies’ ongoing 6-2 “under” streak. Also, Kansas is on “under” runs of 6-3 overall (3-0 last three), 6-2 away from home (all in Big 12 play).
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M and UNDER
(21) Baylor (25-6, 16-8 ATS) vs. (9) Kansas State (25-6, 17-8-1 ATS)
Winners of five straight (4-1 ATS), Baylor now takes that hot streak into the Big 12 semifinals for a showdown with Kansas State. The Bears crushed Texas for the second time in six days on Thursday, winning 86-67 as a one-point favorite. Three players did the bulk of the damage for Baylor, with LaceDarius Dunn getting 19 points, nine rebounds and seven assists to go with Tweety Carter’s 20 points and Ekpe Udoh’s 25 points and eight boards.
Kansas State snapped a two-game SU and ATS losing streak that closed the regular season with an 83-64 rout of Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals Thursday, cashing as a 4½-point chalk. Prior to last night, the Wildcats had dropped consecutive games for the first time all season, getting blown out at Kansas on March 3 and falling at home to Iowa State on Saturday, 85-82 as a 15-point favorite.
In the lone head-to-head matchup this season, Kansas State scored a 76-74 road win at Baylor, cashing as a 1½-point pup. The Bears had won two straight and three of four coming into this season, and they’re still 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. The underdog has been the play in 10 of the last 11 series clashes.
Baylor is on positive ATS streaks of 19-7 in neutral-site games, 7-2 on Friday, 4-0 against Big 12 foes, 4-0 after a straight-up win and 9-4 after a spread-cover. Kansas State is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six Friday affairs, but otherwise is on positive pointspread runs of 16-6-1 overall, 11-5-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against winning teams.
The Bears are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 14-5 overall, 13-4 in Big 12 action, 10-1 after a spread-cover and 5-0 on Fridays. The Wildcats have topped the total in four straight neutral games and five of seven Friday contests, but they have stayed below the posted number in three of four after a straight-up win. In this series, the over has been the play in four of the last six clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Minnesota (19-12, 15-15 ATS) vs. (11) Michigan State (24-7, 12-18 ATS)
Minnesota alternated wins and losses in its final five regular-season games (4-1 ATS) then stomped Penn State 76-55 as a six-point chalk Thursday in the opening round of the conference tourney at Conseco Fieldhouse. The Gophers shot 58 percent from the field and held Penn State to 39 percent, including just 4-for 16 from beyond the three-point line.
The Spartans won three straight (2-1 ATS) and five of their final six (4-2 ATS) to close the regular-season, allowing 58 points or less in four of those games. It was much-needed surge for Michigan State after a three-game SU and five-game ATS losing skid. Prior to that slump, the Spartans had jumped out to a 9-0 start in conference play, the best in school history.
Michigan State carries an eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) over Minnesota into this quarterfinal matchup. The Spartans swept the season series from the Golden Gophers this year, winning 60-53 at home as a 6½-point favorite and then scoring a last-second 65-64 road win as a 1½-point pup two weeks later.
While the Golden Gophers have cashed in six of their last seven overall (all against Big Ten teams), they’re on ATS skids of 7-17 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600 and 2-4 in neutral-site games. Michigan State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight neutral-site contests but just 1-6 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning record.
For Minnesota, the “under” is on streaks of 7-4 in neutral-site games, 13-4 against teams with a winning record, 8-2 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600 and 5-0 on Friday. The Spartans have topped the total in six of their last eight at neutral sites, but they’ve also stayed below the number in 20 of their last 29 against Big Ten teams, four of five on Friday and five straight against teams with winning records.
In this rivalry, the “under” has been the play in five straight and eight of the last nine dating back to 2006.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
(22) Georgetown (22-9, 15-12 ATS) vs. Marquette (22-10, 16-9-1 ATS)
Georgetown advanced to the Big East tournament semifinals at Madison Square Garden after exploding for 54 second-half points Thursday en route to a 91-84 upset victory over top-seeded (and third-ranked) Syracuse, cashing as a 5½-point underdog. Junior guard Chris Wright (27 points) lead four players in double-figure scoring for the Hoyas, who earned a first-round tournament bye then rolled over South Florida 69-49 Wednesday as a 7½-point chalk.
The Hoyas have won three straight games for the first time since early January and the first time all season in Big East play. Additionally, they’re on their first 3-0 ATS streak since December 2008.
Marquette, which has been involved in one nail-biter after another this season, continued that trend Wednesday when it knocked off 10th-ranked (and fourth-seeded) Villanova 80-76 as a five-point underdog. The Golden Eagles shot 48.1 percent overall but 11-for-18 (61.1 percent) from three-point range as they advanced to the tournament semifinals for the first time since XX. Marquette opened the tourney with a shaky 57-55 victory over St. John’s (failing to cover as a 4½-point chalk), and it is now 11-2 dating back to Jan. 26.
The Eagles have played 26 contests since the end of November, with 16 decided by five points or less, and 12 of those 16 decided by three or less. Take away a 69-48 blowout home win over Louisville on March 2, and Marquette’s last six games were decided by a total of 15 points.
Marquette has won and covered three straight against Georgetown, including a 62-59 victory as a 1½-point home chalk back on Jan. 6. Since the Big East expanded to include the Eagles in 2005-06, Marquette is 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in this rivalry, with the SU winner going 6-1-1 ATS.
The Hoyas have now cashed in four straight neutral-site games, but despite their current 3-0 ATS run, they’re still 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a spread-cover. In fact, Georgetown hasn’t cashed in four straight games since a 10-0-2 ATS run near the end of the 2006-07 season. Meanwhile, Marquette is riding positive pointspread streaks of 12-5-1 overall, 15-6-1 in Big East action, 9-2 as an underdog this year (6-0 last six), 11-3-1 versus winning teams and 3-1-1 after a SU victory.
The under is on runs of 6-1 for Georgetown after a victory, 48-22 for Georgetown after a spread-cover, 5-2 for the Eagles after a SU win, 5-0 for the Eagles after an ATS triumph and 5-2 for the Eagles on Friday. On the flip side, both squads have topped the total in four of their last five games against winning teams, and the over is 4-1 in the last five series clashes, with the lone “under” occurring this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARQUETTE
Notre Dame (23-10, 16-10-1 ATS) vs. (7) West Virginia (25-6, 13-17 ATS)
The Fighting Irish continued their late-season surge on Thursday with a 50-45 win over Pitt in the Big East quarterfinals, cashing as a two-point underdog. Notre Dame has rattled off six straight wins and cashed in seven straight. The Irish have changed their defensive mentality over the last six games, allowing just 54.6 ppg after giving up more than 72 ppg in their first 27 games. They’ve also scored 50, 68, 63 and 58 points in their last four, dragging their season scoring average down to 76.8 ppg.
West Virginia has won four straight overall (2-2 ATS), including a narrow 54-51 win over Cincinnati in the quarterfinals Thursday, falling short as an 8½-point favorite. With the score tied at 51, Mountaineers star forward Da’Sean Butler banked in a desperation three-pointer at the buzzer to avoid overtime and seal the win. West Virginia held the Bearcats to 17-for-52 shooting (32.7 percent) and got 17 points and six boards from Kevin Jones. However, prior to Butler’s heave, the Mountaineers had gone 3-for-19 from beyond the three-point arc.
Back on Jan. 9, Notre Dame scored a 70-68 win over West Virginia and cashed as a 4½-point home pup. However, in last year’s Big East tourney, the Mountaineers took down the Irish, winning 74-62 as a six-point favorite. Notre Dame has won seven of the last 10 series clashes.
The Irish are on ATS streaks of 7-0 overall, 6-0 after a straight-up win and 7-0 against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, West Virginia has failed to cash in each of its last five Friday games and just two of its last seven neutral-site contests.
Notre Dame is on several “under” streaks, including 6-0 overall, 19-7 against Big East opponents, 20-6 after a spread-cover, 13-3 in neutral-site games, 11-1 against winning teams and 5-0 on Friday. The Mountaineers have topped the total in seven of eight Friday contests and four straight after a non-cover, but they are on “under” runs of 11-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a straight-up victory.
In this rivalry, the under has cashed in 10 straight meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(at Las Vegas)
(8) New Mexico (29-3, 18-11-2 ATS) vs. San Diego State (23-8, 15-13 ATS)
New Mexico ran its winning streak to 15 in a row Thursday, but it wasn’t easy as the Lobos struggled to get past last-place Air Force 75-69 at the Thomas & Mack Center, never threatening to cover as a hefty 17½-point favorite. New Mexico, which won the Mountain West regular-season title outright, has won its last five games seven points or fewer, outscoring opponents by just 4.8 points per game (72.4-67.6). Also, Steve Alford’s squad has followed up a 7-2-1 ATS run by going 1-4 ATS in its last five.
The Aztecs, who entered this tournament on the Big Dance bubble, nearly saw their postseason dreams go up in flames Thursday, barely getting past Colorado State 72-71 as a 10½-point favorite in a quarterfinal contest. Trailing by a point, San Diego State drained two free throws with 23 seconds remaining, but needed the Rams to come up empty on two ensuing possessions to seal the victory.
San Diego State has won three in a row and nine of 12 (all in the Mountain West), but it has followed up a 6-0 ATS spurt by failing to cover in four of its last five.
The Aztecs and Lobos split their season series, with each protecting their home court. San Diego State won 74-64 as a four-point chalk in the Mountain West opener on Jan. 5, while New Mexico got revenge exactly a month later in Albuquerque, but needed over time to do so, prevailing 88-86 but falling short as a seven-point underdog. Prior to this season, the Lobos had been on an 11-3 ATS tear in this rivalry.
San Diego State dropped to 3-12 over its last 15 neutral-site games with Thursday’s non-cover against Colorado State, and New Mexico is 2-7 ATS in its last nine at neutral venues. However, the Lobos have covered in five of their last six on Friday and five of their last seven versus opponents with a winning record.
The Aztecs have stayed under the total in four straight Friday games and seven of 10 at neutral sites, but the over is 5-1-1 in their last seven versus winning teams. Also, New Mexico is on “over” tears of 4-0 overall (all in conference) and 5-1-1 versus winning teams. Finally, the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes between these schools
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(14) BYU (29-4, 18-12 ATS) vs. UNLV (24-7, 18-11 ATS)
Like New Mexico and San Diego State before them, the second-seeded Cougars received a stiff test in their quarterfinal matchup against TCU on Thursday before pulling away late for a 95-85 victory, never threatening to cover as a 16½-point chalk. Junior point guard Jimmer Fredette scored 30 of his career-high 45 points in the second half for BYU, which trailed 40-39 at halftime and was leading by just a point with less than 13 minutes to play. Fredette established Mountain West tournament records with this 45 points and 23-for-24 effort from the free-throw line.
UNLV was the only conference squad that advanced to the semifinals in comfortable fashion, pounding out a 73-61 win over Utah, the only Mountain West team to sweep the Rebels in the regular season. UNLV, which blew a late 21-point lead against the Utes and just missed covering as a 12½-point home favorite, has recorded five straight double-digit wins by an average of 21.4 ppg. The Rebels, who get this tournament on their home floor, are 14-3 at the Thomas & Mack Center (9-6 ATS).
These teams opened the Mountain West campaign against each other in Provo, Utah, and BYU had to a rally for a 77-73 victory, falling short as a 7½-point chalk. Exactly a month later in Vegas, the Rebels got revenge in a huge way, blasting the Cougars 88-74 as a two-point home chalk. UNLV jumped out to a 56-34 halftime lead and never looked back.
The Rebels have gone 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight battles in this rivalry, they’ve cashed in 10 of the last 13 overall and six of the last seven at the Thomas & Mack.
Despite coming up way short against TCU yesterday, BYU is still 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games, including 7-2 ATS as a favorite and four straight spread-covers as a road team. UNLV has followed up a three-game ATS run with consecutive non-covers, but the Rebels were a double-digit favorite in all five games. They’re just 4-5 ATS in Mountain West home games.
BYU has topped the total in seven of its last nine overall, and UNLV has gone “over” in three of its last four following a 4-0 “under” run. Also, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 13 of the last 15 contests overall (5-0 last five) and eight of the last nine in Vegas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNLV and OVER
PAC-10 TOURNAMENT
(at Los Angeles)
Stanford (14-17, 12-16-1 ATS) vs. Washington (22-9, 12-18 ATS)
Stanford shocked No. 2 seed Arizona State with a 70-61 victory in Thursday’s quarterfinals, cashing as a 7½-point underdog to halt a three-game SU and ATS purge and keep its season alive. The Cardinal, who finished ninth in the conference, have beaten the spread in all three of their neutral-site games this year (2-1 SU), averaging 64 ppg and giving up just a bucket less at 62 ppg.
Washington is making a strong push for a Big Dance berth, peeling off wins in 10 of its last 12 games, including the last five in a row (4-1 ATS). The Huskies finished the regular season with three consecutive road wins (3-0 ATS), then opened the Pac-10 tourney Thursday with a 59-52 victory over Oregon State, though they fell short as a nine-point chalk. Washington is the third seed out of the Pac-10.
Washington went 2-0 SU and ATS in this rivalry this season, hammering Stanford 94-61 as an 8½-point home favorite on Jan. 14, then coasting to a 78-61 road win giving 3½ points on Feb. 13. The Huskies are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with the Cardinal, winning the last five SU and the last four ATS.
Stanford has cashed in four of five at neutral sites, but from there it is on ATS slides of 0-4 on Friday, 1-4 against winning teams and 3-7 following a victory. The Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 versus losing squads, but they’ve failed to cash in four of five at neutral sites and five straight Friday outings.
Stanford ended the regular season with eight consecutive “unders,” but the Cardinal hurdled the total in Thursday’s win over Arizona State, and the over is 10-1 in their last 11 on Friday and 9-4 in their last 13 at neutral venues. Likewise, Washington is on “over” runs of 31-13 in conference action, 7-2 on Friday and 23-10 after a SU victory. However, the under is 11-5 in the last 16 in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Nashville)
Florida (21-11, 15-12 ATS) vs. Mississippi State (21-10, 13-12-1 ATS)
Florida kept its slim Big Dance hopes alive by dropping Auburn 78-69 Thursday night laying 5½ points, halting an ill-timed three-game SU skid in the process. The Gators, who are the No. 4 seed in the SEC East, are 8-7 SU in road/neutral site games this season (7-6-1 ATS in lined contests), averaging 70.8 ppg on neutral courts but allowing 68.4.
Mississippi State, the top seed in the SEC West, has followed a 5-1 SU surge with a pair of SU and ATS losses to end the regular season. The Bulldogs tumbled at Auburn 89-80 as a two-point road chalk on March 3, then got drubbed by then-No. 16 Tennessee 75-59 on Saturday as a 3½-point home favorite. Mississipi State’s defense has been key to its success, allowing foes to shoot just 38.4 percent on the year (10th nationally).
Mississippi State was on a four-game ATS run (2-2 SU) in this rivalry before Florida nabbed a 69-62 home win as a three-point chalk on Feb. 6. That marked the first time in the last five meetings that the underdog has covered.
The Gators are on ATS upswings of 7-3 against winning teams, 6-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, and 5-2 after either a SU or an ATS victory. The Bulldogs have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven Friday contests, but they are on ATS upticks of 7-2 at neutral sites and 4-0 coming off a double-digit home loss.
Florida is on “under” surges of 5-1 on Friday, 4-1 against winning teams, 37-15 versus teams with a win percentage above .600 and 27-12-1 coming off a SU win. Likewise, Mississippi State sports “under” streaks of 6-0 after a SU loss, 6-1 after an ATS setback, 8-1-2 at neutral sites, 4-1 against winning teams and 12-5-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five clashes, with last month’s meeting falling 5½ points short of the 136½-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NCAAB News and Notes
Information on Friday's college basketball games........
ACC tournament
Virginia is 3-7 vs spread in last ten games as underdog; they lost 67-49 at home to Duke (+10) 12 days ago, shooting 31.4% from floor. Cavaliers snapped 9-game skid yesterday, covering for first time in last six tries as an underdog. Duke won nine of ten games since Georgetown upset; they are 7-3-1 vs spread in its last eleven games as an ACC favorite.
Home side won both Miami-Virginia Tech games; Hokies (-3.5) won the first meeting 81-66, holding 'canes to 34.4% from floor, then lost 82-75 (+2) at Miami (trailed 47-30 at half). Miami is 2-5 in last seven games, but 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as an underdog. Tech won eight of last ten games; they're 1-3 vs spread in last four games as the favorite.
Georgia Tech (+7.5) lost 76-74 at Maryland Feb 20; Jackets were just 11-20 at foul line, offsetting 21 offensive rebounds. Tech is 3-5 in last eight games- they're 1-4 vs spread in last five games as favorite. Terps won last six games, covered last four- they're 8-1 vs spread as an ACC favorite. Tech had tough win vs Carolina last nite, Terps didn't play.
NC State won four of last five games; covering three of last four games as underdog- they upset Florida State 88-81 (+9) Jan 12. Wolfpack hit 11-23 from arc in that game. Seminoles won five of last six games, with last three games decided by total of 8 points; they're 2-8 against spread as a ACC favorite. Four Wolfpack subs played 19+ minutes last nite.
Atlantic 10 tournament
Temple won last seven games, covered last four; they won 73-55 (-7) in Olean Feb 17, holding St Bonaventure to 1-8 from arc. Owls are 10-3 vs spread an A-14 favorite this season. Bonnies made 9-12 from arc in win over Duquesne Tuesday, their fifth win in last six games; they're 3-5 vs spread in last eight games as dog. Crowd edge in AC goes to Temple.
Rhode Island (-2.5) lost 62-57 at Saint Louis Feb 17, shooting 5-13 on foul line, 35.5% from floor in game they led 30-24 at half. Rams are 3-5 in last eight games, 3-7 vs spread in last eight games as an A-14 favorite. Billikens won eight of last their ten games, with six wins by five or less points; they covered seven of last eight games as the underdog.
Dayton (-3.5) pounded Xavier 90-65 Feb 6, shooting 56% from floor in game with a 40-23 rebounding edge; they lost first meeting 78-74 (+5) at Xavier, as Musketeers were 10-19 from arc. Dayton is 3-5 in last eight games, is 2-4 vs spread this season as an underdog. Xavier won last six games, covering eight of last ten games when they're favored.
Richmond (-12) needed OT to beat UMass 70-63 at home Jan 13; both teams shot 37.1% from floor, but Spiders were +8 in turnovers (18-10). UMass won its last two games as 8/9 point underdogs- they covered five of last seven games as underdogs. Richmond's last four games were all decided by five or less points; they're 7-1 in last eight as a favorite.
Big 10 tournament
Home side won both Michigan-Ohio State games; Turner-less Buckeyes lost 73-64 in Ann Arbor (+1.5) Jan 3, then with Turner healthy, OSU beat Wolverines 66-55 (-12.5) Feb 27 (Michigan led by a point at half). Michigan is 2-4 in last six games, but 6-2 vs spread as Big 11 underdog this year. Ohio State won last four games, covered five of last seven.
Illinois lost five of last six games, losing last three by 2-16-15 points, as Coach Weber and PG McCamey got into it on sidelines last game, just five days ago. Road teams won both Illinois-Wisconsin games; Illini lost 72-57 to Badgers Sunday, after 63-56 upset win in Madison Feb 9 (+9). Wisconsin won its last four games, allowing 51.5 ppg (3-1 vs spread)/
Northwestern (+7.5) upset Purdue 72-64 in Evanston Jan 16, holding Boilers to 35.6% from floor; Wildcats lost four of last six games, but got 20th win last night, outscoring Indiana 46-28 in second half. Purdue won 12 of last 13 games, but they're 0-5 vs spread in last five, scoring 60.7 ppg in three games since Hummel tore his ACL and went out for year.
Michigan State guard Allen is suspended for this game; he averages 26.5 mpg, 9.1 ppg; Spartans beat Minnesota twice this year, 60-53 Jan 13 at home (-6), 65-64 (+1.5) on road 10 days later. Spartans won five of last six games, are 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games as favorite. Gophers are 5-2 in last seven games, but are 2-3 vs spread as a Big 11 underdog.
SEC tournament
Alabama (+15) lost 66-55 at Kentucky Feb 9, shooting jut 33.3% from floor; Crimson Tide won their last three games, by 9-12-5 points- they are 3-3-1 as SEC dog this year. Alabama played three subs 22+ minutes yesterday, so fatigue shouldn't be an issue. Kentucky won 10 of last 11 games, is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games as the favorite.
Top four teams in SEC East are 26-0 against SEC West this season, so even though Ole Miss got bye yesterday, Tennessee is better team, with six wins in last seven games, winning last four by 9-7-16-10 points- they are 2-7 vs spread in last nine games as favorite. Ole Miss won last four games- they lost 71-69 in OT in Knoxville Jan 16 (led 33-28 at the half).
Again, top four SEC East teams are 26-0 vs SEC West. Florida lost three of last four games, but most pundits agree Gators are in Field of 65 with win here, vs Mississippi State squad that split its last ten games, falling behind 17-0 on Senior Day in loss to Tennessee, allowing 79.5 ppg in its last two. Four of five Florida starters played 29+ minutes last night.
Georgia is 12-5 vs spread in SEC this year, 9-4 as underdog; they waxed Vanderbilt 72-58 at home (+4.5) Feb 6, then took Commodores to OT in Nashville, losing 96-94 Feb 25 (+12). Game is in Nashville, but not on Vandy's unusual home court. Dawgs played four starters 33+ minutes last night. Vanderbilt is 2-7 vs spread in last nine games as a favorite.
Conference USA tournament
Southern Mississippi (+8) won 57-55 at Houston Feb 6, holding Coogs to 32% from floor, 2-14 from line, in game Cougars led 29-21 at the half. Houston is just 6-8 in last 14 games, 3-7 vs spread in last ten. Southern Miss is 10-4 in last 14 games; in its first two tourney games, Golden Eagles outscored their opponents 44-9 at the charity stripe.
Host Tulsa is 4-5 in last nine games, covering three of last 14; they were down at half last two games, but won both, by 11-16 points. UTEP won last 15 games, but three of its last five wins were by four or less points; Miners beat Tulsa twice this year, 73-59 (-6) at home Feb 6, 78-70 (+1) on this floor two weeks later. Bubble teams all rooting hard for UTEP. .
Big East tournament
Georgetown is 10-3 in this event last 4+ years; Hoyas (+2) lost 62-59 at Marquette Jan 6, in game where Eagles hit 12-26 from arc. Marquette's eleven Big East road games were decided by a total of 26 points, with Eagles winning last seven, all by four or less points. Both teams playing third day in row. Georgetown shot 57.9% yesterday vs Syracuse.
Notre Dame won last six games, playing better defense- they beat West Virginia 70-68 at home (+3) Jan 9, racing to 32-12 lead, then holding on after late Mountaineer charge. West Virginia won six of last seven games; their last two games were decided by total of five points- they're 9-5 in this event last five years. Irish playing third day in row, WV second.
Big 12 tournament
Kansas (-8) won 59-54 at Texas A&M Feb 15, in game Aggies led 32-30 at half; Jayhawks won last three games by 17-21-12 points, after losing at Oklahoma State- they're 3-9 in last 12 games as favorite. Texas A&M won 10 of last 12 games (11-1 vs the spread), covering last five games as a dog. Four Aggies played 28+ minutes yesterday; bench had 9 points.
Kansas State (+2.5) won 76-74 at Baylor Jan 26, making 11-21 from arc in game where they were outscored 23-9 on foul line. Wildcats are 9-4 vs spread as a Big 12 favorite this season- they were up 25 at half last nite vs Oklahoma State. Baylor won five in row, eight of its last nine games, going 5-2 in last seven road games; Bears are 2-2 as a Big 12 underdog. .
MAC tournament
Western Michigan won five of last six games, but are 3-5 vs spread as MAC dog; they lost 79-70 (+1) at home to Akron Jan 27, as Zips shot 53% from floor, 8-16 from arc. Akron won eight of its last nine games, but escaped with win last night in double OT, making 11-19 from arc in dramatic win. Akron is 4-2 vs spread in last six games as the favorite.
Ohio is 9-1 vs spread in last ten games; they KO'd top-seeded Kent last night. Bobcats split with Miami this year, losing 79-67 at Miami (+3) in first meeting, winning rematch 70-68 (-4.5) Feb 24. Miami won its last two games after 4-game, with both wins vs Buffalo- they led by 11 at half last night, but still played four of their starters 33+ minutes.
Pac-10 tournament
UCLA lost three of last four games, but avenged pair of Arizona losses yesterday; they upset Cal in Berkeley 76-75 Jan 6 (+15), then lost to Bears 72-58 at home Feb 6 (+3.5). UC:A is 6-5-1 vs spread as underdog in Pac-10 games this season. Cal won, covered eight of last nine games; they're 10-4 against the spread in its last 14 games as a favorite.
Washington won last five road games, after after starting season 0-7 out of Seattle- they beat Stanford twice this year, 94-61 (-7.5) at home Jan 14, then 78-61 (-3.5) at Maples Feb 13. Huskies are 6-1 vs spread in last eight games as a favorite. Cardinal lost three of last four games by 8-2-10 points; they're 6-7 against the spread as a Pac-10 underdog this season.
Mountain West tournament
New Mexico won last 15 games, but failed to cover their last four games as the favorite; Lobos (+3) lost 74-64 in San Diego Jan 5, then beat the Aztecs 88-86 in OT Feb 6 (-7.5). San Diego State needs to win this game to get into NCAAs; they won nine of last eleven games- they're 3-2 as a MWC underdog, were life-and-death to beat Colorado State Thursday.
Home side won both UNLV-BYU games this year; Rebels lost 77-73 in Provo Jan 6 (+8), then beat Cougars 88-74 (-2) Feb 6 (was 56-34 at the half). UNLV won last five games (3-2 vs spread); they're 4-5 as MWC home favorite, winning at home by 10-10-14-31-16-18-12 points. BYU covered six of last eight games; they haven't won this tourney since '01.
WAC tournament
Utah State won last 16 games (13-3 against the spread); they split with Louisiana Tech, losing 82-60 in Ruston (+1) Jan 4, then beating Tech in rematch 67-61 (-12) Feb 17. Aggies jogged vs Boise State yesterday, but banged-up Tech beat Fresno by 8, just its second win in last six games. Leading scorer Gibson hampered with bum ankle; he scored seven points with six turnovers in 33 gutty minutes, making four key FTs late.
Nevaada beat New Mexico State twice this year, 77-67 in Las Cruces on Jan 4 (-3.5), 100-92 (-6.5) on this court eight days ago- Wolf Pack was only WAC team to win in Las Cruces this year. Nevada won seven of last nine games, is 4-5 as WAC home favorite, winning home games by 29-8-6-8-4-8-11-16 pts. Aggies are 1-4 in last five games as underdog.
Big West tournament
Cal-Santa Barbara beat Cal-Davis twice this year, 68-47 at home (-9.5) Jan 8, then 81-77 (even) on road Feb 6. Gauchos won six of last seven games, had bye yesterday, while Davis rallied from down 8 at half to beat Fullerton. Seven of last nine Cal-Davis games were decided by 6 points or less, or in OT. Gauchos are 0-4 in last four games as favorite.
Pacific beat Long Beach State twice, 74-52 (even) on road Feb 17, 61-51 in Stockton 10 days later (-6.5); Tigers won last three games, allowing an average of 54 ppg- they're 7-4-1 vs spread in last dozen games as fave in Big West games. 49ers won three of last four games- they're 2-1 as dog in conference games this year. 49ers are 2-5 as a tournament underdog.
Big XII Semifinals
By Judd Hall
The Big XII Quarterfinals were the domain of the favorites as they all wound up winning to play another day. Yet the underdogs were the strong play once again as they went 3-1 against the spread to send their backers to the window.
Kansas (30-2 straight up, 12-16-1 against the spread) finds itself in the semifinals after upending the surprisingly game Red Raiders 80-68 as a 17 ½-point favorite yesterday afternoon. The win gave the Jayhawks one more feather in their cap (bad pun) as they were the third team to pick up 2,000 wins. Only traditional powerhouses Kentucky and North Carolina have more wins in Division I basketball.
The Jayhawks made it past Texas Tech thanks to hitting 44 percent from the field and winning the rebound battle 44-30. But what really helped Bill Self’s crew is the fact that they can run 13 players out there on a given night. And out of those 13 ballers, five posted double-digit scoring. Cole Aldrich was the top performer for the kids from Lawrence by picking up 12 points and a game-high 18 rebounds.
Texas A&M (23-8 SU, 18-9 ATS) had to work late for its 70-64 win over the Cornhuskers last night as a eight-point “chalk.” The Aggies never trailed in this game, but Nebraska cut the lead to 62-58 win 95 seconds left in the second half. Bryan Davis put the game out of reach by putting in a layup and draining a free throw. Donald Sloan was the strong man for A&M by dropping in 23 points with three boards and four helpers.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants have posted the Jayhawks as 9 ½-point favorites with a total of 134. Bettors can take the Aggies to win outright for an extremely healthy plus-425 return (risk $100 to win $425). The Big XII Network has this game starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
If you think that money line wager is too much to play on Texas A&M, then remember that they lost 59-54 to the ‘Hawks as a 6 ½-point home pup back on Feb. 15.
Kansas has only been a single-digit favorite eight times this season. In that frame, they are 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS. The ‘under’ has gone 5-3 in those contests as well. The Aggies are 4-6 SU and 7-3 ATS when posted as underdogs. The ‘under’ has cashed in for a 6-3-1 mark.
In the 9:30 p.m. EST tip-off on Big XII Network, Kansas State (25-6 SU, 17-8-1 ATS) will take on the Bears.
K-State wanted to make an example of the Cowboys yesterday and they did just that in an 83-64 romp as a 7 ½-point favorite. Jamar Samuels ran roughshod over Oklahoma State for 27 points, 10 rebounds and an assist. The Wildcats stifled the Cowpokes’ attack by allowing them to shoot just 40 percent from the field and 36 percent from three-point land.
Baylor (25-6 SU, 16-8 ATS) comes into his battle after dumping the Longhorns 86-67 in a matchup that most betting shops had as a pick ‘em. Ekpe Udoh was a machine against Texas, scoring 25 points with eight boards and three assists.
Most sportsbooks have tabbed Kansas State as a two-point “chalk” with a total of 144.
While some folks might think that spread is a bit too close, you have to realize that the Wildcats won 76-74 in Waco as 1 ½-point road pups back on Jan. 26. Plus, the Bears are 3-2 SU and ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings. The ‘over’ has been a top play for this battle as it has gone 4-2 in the last six matchups.
K-State has been almost automatic as a single-digit favorite this season, evidenced by a 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS record. The ‘over’ holds a slight 7-6 edge this year for total bettors.
Baylor has gone just 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS as an underdog this season, with the ‘over’ going 5-2 in that time.
vegasinsider.com
Tips and Trends
Georgetown Hoyas vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Hoyas (-3, O/U 132): The Jekyl and Hyde season continues for Georgetown, as they beat #1 seed Syracuse SU yesterday. When Georgetown is playing their best basketball they can beat anyone in the country. Georgetown is now 22-9 SU on the season, including 12-8 SU in Big East play. With a SU win today, the Hoyas would play in their 3rd Big East championship game in the past 4 seasons. Georgetown has won a record 7 Big East Conference Tournaments. Georgetown is now 11-5 SU and 9-5 ATS away from home this season. That record includes a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in games played on a neutral court. The Hoyas scored 91 PTS yesterday against Syracuse, only the 3rd time this season they've scored more than 90 PTS this season. G Chris Wright was simply unstoppable yesterday, as he paced the Hoyas with a game high 27 PTS. Wright was 10 of 16 from the field, and also had 6 rebounds and 6 assists against Syracuse. During the regular season Wright averaged 14.2 PPG and 3 RPG.
Hoyas are 4-0 ATS last 4 neutral site games.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 72 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Golden Eagles: Marquette is simply the hottest team left in the Big East tournament, as they've won 11 of their past 13 games SU. All 11 of those wins have come in Big East play, where the Golden Eagles are 13-7 SU. Marquette beat Villanova yesterday 80-76 SU as 5 point underdogs. Marquette has won each of the past 4 games that they were listed as the underdog. The Golden Eagles are 22-10 SU and 16-9-1 ATS in all games this season. Marquette is 9-6 SU and 10-4-1 away from home this season. Marquette is a very profitable 9-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Golden Eagles are on the verge of school history, as they've yet to play in a Big East Conference Championship game. Marquette is accustomed to playing close games, as 4 of their past 7 games have gone to overtime. 2 of their other 3 games were decided by a total of 7 PTS. The Golden Eagles have already beaten Georgetown once this season, winning by 3 PTS at home. F Lazar Hayward averages a team high 18.1 PPG this season, and has scored 20 PTS in each tournament game thus far.
Golden Eagles are 9-2 ATS last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games following an ATS win.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 70