Friday's NCAA Games
Vermont upset Syracuse in a 4-13 game five years ago, but Catamounts had better players then; America East teams lost last four tourney games by 13-27-19-24 points. Onuako is out for weekend, so Syracuse is thin, but that won't matter here, but they haven't won by more than 15 points in last nine first round games. Big East non-league favorites are 50-53.
Young Gonzaga comes all the way to western NY, their fifth trip east of Mississippi this year. Zags lost conference tourney final to St Mary's, got upset at San Francisco, both red flags. Florida State is best defensive team in country, according to kenpom.com, very athletic up front, but their last tourney win was '98- they're 0-4 vs spread in last four games.
West Virginia had emotional run thru Big East tourney, now has to crank up again against Morgan State team that lost at Minnesota by 30, Baylor by 16, Louisville by 9-- they won at Arkansas. Mountaineers are 3-6 in last nine games as favorite, 2-5 vs spread as non-conference double digit favorite. Three of last five MEAC tourney losses are by 11 or less pts.
Clemson lost last three first round games and were favored in all three- their last tourney win was '97. Clemson is 2-3 in last five games, was 2-7 on ACC road. Missouri lost three of last four games, scoring 57.8 ppg in the losses. Both teams like to press and go up and down, but Missouri's recent struggles scoring make pressing difficult. Big 12 underdogs: 18-15.
Cornell led in last 2:00 at Kansas, which is why Big Red is trendy pick for upset; that and lot of national media are Ivy grads, so they're on the Cornell bandwagon. Temple holds opponents under 30% from arc, but Cornell makes 42%+ from arc, so that will be key stat. Cornell lost by 15 to Syracuse, 10 to Seton Hall. Temple is 10-2 in last 12 as favorite.
Wofford won last 13 games, covered eight of last nine as underdog; they lost by 14 at Illinois, 2 at Bradley, 3 at Pitt, 12 at Michigan State, won at Georgia. Wisconsin had 4-game win streak snapped in first game of Big 11 tourney; they're 5-3 as double digit favorite, but 3-4 vs spread as a favorite overall. SoCon underdogs are 31-34 vs spread this season.
Ark-Pine Bluff held Winthrop to 29% Tuesday, 2-20 from arc, getting its first tournament win; Lions started season 0-11, playing seven teams in top 60, but none of the losses were by more than 20 points. Duke has to be preparing for second round game vs Louisville/Cal; they're 1-4 vs spread in last five first round games. Game means lot more to Pine Bluff.
California starts four seniors, shoots 3's well, which makes them live vs Louisville team that has to play zone because their man defense is awful. Pac-10 vs Big East bias gives Cal value. Bears won six of last seven, are 9-2 vs spread in last 11 games. Cardinals are 2-3 in their last five games, 3-7 vs spread in last ten. Cardinals are 4-8 in games outside of Louisville.
Ohio State plays seven guys; they've won last seven games, are 6-4 vs spread in last ten, Buckeyes played Sunday, could be flat vs UCSB club that won eight of last nine games and is 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight as a dog. Once-proud Big West lost last four tourney games by 12-35-15-11 points (1-3 vs spread). Big West underdogs are 26-25 against spread.
Rematch of 2004 national semifinal game, which Georgia Tech won; they went 3-1 in ACC tourney to make tournament after a 4-7 end to regular season. Jackets have two terrific big guys, but suspect guards. Oklahoma State split last six games; they were down 25 at half in last game, to K-State in Big 12 tourney. Big 12 favorites are 45-28 vs spread this year.
Pitt won seven of last nine games, is 4-4-1 as double digit favorite; they won last four first round games by 15-21-19-10 points (3-1 vs spread). Oakland lost to Syracuse/Michigan St/Memphis and Kansas, all by 30+ points- they lost to Mizzou by 16, so they're not likely to hang in here, but they did play #14-ranked non-conference schedule this season.
Minnesota got in tournament with strong Big 11 tourney, but played on Sunday- they're 8-2 vs spread in last 10 games, 7-3 SU, with two losses by 28-29 points. Xavier won seven of last eight games, losing in OT in conference tourney; Musketeers went 9-5 against #12-ranked non-conf schedule. Gophers' last tournament win came way back in 1997.
New Mexico State lost last three regular season road games before run in WAC tournament got them here; Aggies are 8-5 vs spread last 13 games as an underdog. Michigan State is 3-9 vs spread in last dozen games as a favorite, 2-6 as favorite in non-league games, 3-5 vs spread in last eight first round tournament games. WAC underdogs are 24-22 vs spread.
Houston was going to fire its coach a week ago, now they're in NCAAs after unlikely 4-day run thru C-USA tourney; Cougars were 4-8 in last 12 regular season games, losing at lowly Tulane. Maryland covered nine of last 11 as favorite, getting four-game win streak snapped in first game of ACC tourney. Terps won last four first round games by 2-3-12-13.
Utah State was one of last two teams in field after loss to athletic New Mexico State in WAC tourney; now they face an equally athletic Texas A&M squad that is 11-2 vs spread in last 13 games, 7-2 in last nine as a favorite. A&M won its last four first round games by 8-16-5-13 points. Utah State beat Wichita (Turgeon's old team) in Bracket Busters Feb 20.
Siena's best 3-point shooter sprained his ankle over weekend, had to use crutches Sunday night; status is ?? here, which almost offsets Hummel's torn ACL. Saints won first round game last two years, upsetting Ohio St in 8-9 game LY. Boilermakers trailed 37-11 at halftime of last game; they are 0-7 vs spread in last seven games, all as fave. MAAC dogs are 18-15.
East Region Day 2 Picks
By DAVID PAYNE
No. 15 Morgan State Bears vs. No. 2 West Virginia Mountaineers (-17.5, 138.5)
West Virginia looked tough in winning the Big East Tournament.
The Mountaineers (27-6, 13-19 ATS) are physical, talented and can throw different defensive looks at opponents on a possession-by-possession basis. They are 5-7 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
The Bears (27-9) have been overmatched by big-conference competition this season, losing to Louisville by 11, Minnesota by 30 and Baylor by 16. They own two wins over Coppin State by 20 and 13.
West Virginia beat Coppin State by 26 and Louisville by three.
Morgan State prefers to push the pace, but that can lead to sloppy play. The Bears allow 70 points, turn the ball over 13.5 times and commit more than 21 fouls per game.
Their roster is pretty similar to last year, when the Bears were blown out by Oklahoma in the opening round of the tournament.
Prediction: West Virginia 83, Morgan State 65
No. 7 Clemson Tigers (-1.5, 138.5) vs. No. 10 Missouri Tigers
It’s a tough matchup to handicap between two talented, but inconsistent teams.
Missouri (22-10) is banged-up. Starting forward John Safford tore his ACL in late February. The Tigers are 1-3 and 0-4 ATS since losing Safford.
Safford’s replacement, sophomore forward Laurance Bowers, has two torn ligaments in his wrist, but has decided to delay surgery until after the tournament and is expected to play against Clemson.
Like Missouri, Clemson (21-10) pushes the pace. But it can lead to needless turnovers (14.8 TOs per game).
Common opponents include Texas A&M and Illinois. Missouri lost by three to A&M and hammered Illinois by 13. Clemson lost by nine at home to A&M and by two at home to Illinois.
Prediction: Clemson 76, Missouri 70
No. 5 Temple Owls (-3.5, 119.5) vs. No. 12 Cornell Big Red
A trendy upset pick, Cornell (27-4, 16-10) lost by only five as 20-point dog at Kansas in early January. The Big Red own wins over St. John’s, Alabama, UMass and St. Joseph’s.
Kansas ran Temple off the floor in an 82-54 win in January. But Cornell has neither the size nor the athletes that the Jayhawks do.
But the Big Red can shoot the ball. They’re the tournament’s top 3-point shooting team, making more nine per game. If they get hot, the Owls don’t have the offensive firepower (64.9 ppg.) to keep up.
Temple (29-5, 21-11-1 ATS) has the best 3-point defense in the field, though, and has held its last seven opponents to under 60 points. That’s pretty impressive
Look for the Owls to extend their zone defense, press out on the 3-point line and force Cornell to drive the basketball. Syracuse’s zone forced the Big Red to shoot 13 for 37 from the 3-point line in a 15-point win over Cornell in December.
Prediction: Cornell 60, Temple 58
No. 12 Wofford Terriers vs. No. 4 Wisconsin Badgers (-10. 115.5)
Wofford lost to Illinois by 14 and Michigan State by 12 during non-conference play. That’s a pretty good gauge of how the Terriers will stack up with Badgers, who play the same Big Ten style of ball as the Illini and Spartans.
Expect Wisconsin to be physical with the much smaller Terriers. There won’t be any easy baskets against the Badgers’ fourth-ranked defense that allows just 56.2 points per game.
The Terriers (26-8) have had their struggles at the free throw line, shooting just 67.2 percent as a team.
In the last three NCAA tournaments, double-digit favorites are 27-18-1 against the spread.
Prediction: Wisconsin 68, Wofford 56.
South Region Day 2 Picks
By PATRICK GARBIN
No. 13 Siena Saints vs. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers (-4, 129.5)
In late February, Purdue had suffered just three losses the entire season, was ranked third in the nation and was eyeing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Then the Boilermakers lost leading scorer and rebounder Robbie Hummel to a knee injury, and Purdue hasn’t been the same since.
The Boilermakers are 3-2 SU and 0-4-1 ATS without Hummel in the lineup. With or without the star forward, Purdue has struggled against the number, covering just seven of 23 games since mid-December, including none of its last seven.
Although Siena is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS as an underdog this year, the Saints have excelled as Cinderellas in past NCAA tourneys.
They are 4-1 ATS their last three trips to the Big Dance, including upset wins over Ohio State and Vanderbilt the last two years. The Saints are led by senior forward Alex Franklin (13.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg) – the MAAC player of the year, as well as the conference tournament’s MVP.
I’m going to jump on the bandwagon and choose Siena over Purdue – the region’s trendy pick of the opening round. The Boilermakers are simply a different squad without Hummel while the Saints are scrappy, well-coached and tournament-tested.
Final score prediction: Siena 64, Purdue 62
No. 12 Utah State Aggies vs. No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (-3, 125)
Utah State is remarkably ranked 12th or higher in the nation in half of the 10 main team statistical categories (field goal, 3-point and free-throw percentage, scoring defense and rebounds defense).
But these Aggies played a rather easy schedule, facing only three teams in the RPI’s top 50 and just one since early December (No. 43 Wichita State).
A Texas A&M victory will likely depend on the play of guard Donald Sloan (18.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.3 apg). The A&M standout likes to drive to the basket, seeks contact, and, as a result, gets a lot of free points. He shoots better than 77 percent from the charity stripe.
“It’s something that we’re aware of,” said Utah State coach Stew Morrill. “[Stopping Sloan] is easier said than done.”
Texas A&M, who faced one of the nation’s toughest schedules, has excellent guard play and is more athletic than Utah State. Watch for A&M to get the other Aggies into foul trouble, pull away for a seemingly comfortable win and reach the tourney’s second round for the fourth time in the last five years.
Final score prediction: Texas A&M 66, Utah State 54
No. 16 Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (-23, 125)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is fresh off a 17-point upset victory over Winthrop just three days ago in the tournament’s play-in game. The Golden Lions started the season 0-11 before winning 18 of their last 22, albeit against primarily SWAC opposition.
They must face the region’s top-seeded team in Duke, a No. 1 seed for the first time in four years.
The Blue Devils are a very un-Duke-like 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS in the last three NCAA tourneys and have covered just two of their last nine games this season.
The Blue Devils have their best team in four years mostly because of Duke’s big three on the perimeter – guards Jon Scheyer (18.9 ppg, 5.2 apg) and Nolan Smith (17.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.0 apg), and forward Kyle Singler (17.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg).
Although reports out of Durham indicate the tourney-bound team is its most confident in years, you can’t help but think Duke might be looking ahead. The Blue Devils’ road to an Elite Eight appearance seems rather manageable.
Consider this: Duke is 1-3 ATS since 2005 when favored by 19 to 33 points in the NCAA tournament, not covering by an average of nearly 11 points. Under the same circumstances, the Blue Devils are 0-3 ATS this season.
Final score prediction: Duke 70, Ark.-Pine Bluff 52
No. 9 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 8 California Golden Bears (Pick, 149.5)
Louisville’s success in this year’s tournament will primarily depend on the play of its leading scorer and rebounder, forward Samardo Samuels (15.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg). Although the Cardinals are deep - 11 players average at least 11 minutes per game - they’ll only go as far as Samuels takes them.
Since scoring 36 points in a victory over Notre Dame in mid-February, Samuels has averaged just 11.3 points the last six games. The Cardinals are 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in that span.
“I know he’s a load,” said California coach Mike Montgomery of Samuels. “He posts very hard, which obviously, given our size constraints, will cause us problems.”
Although Cal has the Pac-10 player of the year in guard Jerome Randle (18.7 ppg, 4.5 apg, 93.5 FT percentage), no Bear is as tall as the 6-9 Samuels.
The Cardinals will take advantage of a small Cal team, who has yet to face a player this season like the physical, 260-pound Samuels.
Final score prediction: Louisville 82, California 75
Midwest Region Day 2 Picks
By ADAM THOMPSON
No. 5 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 12 New Mexico State Aggies (+13, 148)
Michigan State (24-8) ended the season with a whimper, going 5-5 in its last 10 games, including a first-round exit from the Big Ten tournament. Star point guard Kalin Lucas (14.9 ppg) didn’t regain all the quickness he lost from a late-season ankle injury.
One positive: Starting guard Chris Allen (9.1 ppg) will return after being suspended for the Big Ten tourney loss for internal team issues. He was deeply missed in that 72-67 loss to Minnesota, because the Spartans are not deep.
The Aggies (22-11) won the WAC tournament by outscoring their opponents, averaging 80 points per game in three games.
Junior 6-5 guard Jahmar Young (20.5 ppg) can score from anywhere on the court and leads the way. If the Aggies can speed the pace, force the Spartans into turnovers and play inspired defense, an upset is possible.
But MSU coach Tom Izzo typically has his teams very ready for the postseason. When the Aggies lose, they typically go down in flames. Of their 11 losses, nine were by double digits, and all were by eight points or more.
Prediction: Michigan State 78, New Mexico State 58
No. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 13 Houston Cougars (+9.5, 156)
Two of the nation’s most dynamic players face off in the opening round.
Senior 6-6 guard Greivis Vasquez (19.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 6.3 apg) does it all for Maryland (23-8). He’s the only player in ACC history with more than 2,000 points, 700 assists and 600 rebounds. When he’s hot, he’s all but unstoppable. When he’s off, he can shoot the Terps out of a game.
Maryland is much better now than it was earlier in the season. Other players have emerged, such as 6-10 freshman Jordan Williams but the team’s guards still lead the way.
Houston (19-15) sports the nation’s leading scorer, 6-4 senior Aubrey Coleman (25.6 ppg). No shot is out of his range, and the Cougars are very perimeter oriented. Five of the team’s top six scorers are guards, with 6-4 senior Kelvin Lewis second at 15.3 ppg.
If Houston can slow Vasquez, other Terps can score and will always defend. The Cougars, on the other hand, won’t have answer if Coleman is off.
Prediction: Maryland 75, Houston 65
No. 7 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. No. 10 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+1.5, 136)
It’s Oklahoma State’s backcourt vs. Georgia Tech’s frontcourt.
Star 6-6 guard James Anderson (22.6 ppg) can single-handedly carry the Cowboys, but he doesn’t have to. Keiton Page (10.7 ppg) and Obi Muonelo (13.4 ppg) are both solid scorers.
Oklahoma State (22-10) won its first-round game last year, but wants more this year.
“Winning one game in the tournament is just a tease,” Muonelo told The Oklahoman. “We got there last year, we were happy to get there. We don’t want to do the same thing.”
Depth isn’t a concern. Nine players average more than 10 minutes per game. But teams with size and scoring down low give the Cowboys concerns.
Georgia Tech (22-12) has one of the best frontcourt duos in freshman Derrick Favors (12.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and junior Gani Lawal (13.1 ppg, 8.7 rpg). Those two could give the Cowboys real trouble in the paint.
The Yellow Jackets’ backcourt, however, has struggled. Iman Schumpert is the team’s top guard, but he averages 10.1 ppg on 39.5-percent shooting.
In the NCAA Tournament, teams win with guard play more often than they win with forward play.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 68, Georgia Tech 64
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 15 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (+17, 132)
Evan Turner is a rightful national player of the year candidate, averaging 20.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg and 5.9 apg, all team highs for Ohio State (27-7). There isn’t much the 6-7 wingman can’t do or hasn’t done in Buckeyes’ Big Ten title season.
But he’s also surrounded by talent, and is one of four players averaging more than 12.5 ppg.
Ohio State isn’t particularly large in the frontcourt, and that could pose an issue down the line. But the Buckeyes are still bigger than Santa Barbara.
Santa Barbara (20-9) became a much better team with the addition of Loyola Marymount transfer Orlando Johnson (17.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg), the Big West player of the year.
UCSB doesn’t score very much and is one of the worst rebounding teams in the tournament. That does not bode well against the talented, deep and big Buckeyes.
Prediction: Ohio State 80, UC Santa Barbara 48
West Region Day 2 Picks
By SCOTT COOLEY
Xavier Musketeers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (-1, 141.5)
The Musketeers are an experienced NCAA Tournament team. The X-Men have been dancing nine of the last 10 years, including five straight, and advanced to the Sweet 16 last season.
Xavier is led by sophomore Jordan Crawford who finished first in the A-10 in scoring this season (19.7 ppg) while averaging 18.2 ppg versus Top 25 competition. He seems eager to shine on a big stage once again.
“I’m very excited just to get back out on the court and play in the NCAA Tournament because last time was not a good one,” said Crawford, who was with Indiana in the 2008 tournament. “It was real quick and it wasn’t good. And it ended up, that was my last game for two years.”
Minnesota, on the other hand, sounds content to just be in the tournament.
"We got hot at the right time. It's a great story line, guys that have had to overcome some adversity this year," coach Tubby Smith said. "I do think we're one of the best 65 teams in the country."
Really Tubby?
Prediction: Xavier 77, Minnesota 70
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Oakland Golden Grizzlies (+10, 135)
When the Golden Grizzlies rolled into Pittsburgh in November of 2006 and led the fourth-ranked team in the country by double digits in the first half, the time-consuming gameplan installed by coach Greg Kampe’s worked perfectly.
"When we played Pitt the last time, we held the ball for 34 seconds (each possession) and we played zone,” he said.
Kampe said his team will not "trick it up" as it did in the last matchup but will play its normal, up-tempo style of basketball that had his squad averaging 76.8 ppg this season.
"We're not dumb enough to think we're going to cut the nets down,” Kampe said. “We just want to play our tails off, have fun and see how we stack up. We like to play fast. We're not going to change that now."
Oakland comes into the tournament battle-tested, having played teams like Syracuse, Kansas, Wisconsin and Michigan State in non-conference play, and that carefree attitude takes all the pressure off the Grizzlies in this matchup.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 74, Oakland 68
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Florida State Seminoles (-1.5, 132)
The Zags are no longer the Cinderella of college basketball and they aren’t intimidated when they step onto the court against a major conference team.
"They have been kind of giant killers," said Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton. "They have traveled all over the country playing anyone who would like to play. They've tried to schedule all the tough games.”
The Bulldogs faced Duke, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Wake Forest and Illinois this season, compiling a 3-3 record against that elite competition and going 4-2 ATS.
Florida State will aim to slow the pace of this game which doesn’t suit the Bulldogs preferred pulse. But the Noles coach doesn’t roll into this game with a ringing endorsement.
"We still have a lot of areas in our game that we need to improve on,” Hamilton said. “We need to take care of the ball a little better.”
FSU was one of the most turnover-prone teams in the nation this season (16.8 per game), something the Zags can capitalize on in transition.
Prediction: Gonzaga 65, Florida State 63
Syracuse Orange vs. Vermont Catamounts (+17.5, 143)
Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim has essentially ruled out Arinze Onuaku for Friday’s game, but there might not be too much of a drop off. The center will be replaced in the starting lineup by the Big East Sixth Man of the Year, Kris Joseph, who actually averaged more minutes than Onuaku during the season.
The Orange seem to be most concerned about their defense, or lack thereof, going into the Dance. The team’s post-postseason motto: “Shut it Down”
Syracuse will have its hands full as Vermont boasts the best kept secret in college basketball in superstar Marqus Blakely. The 6-5, 230-pound forward averaged 17.4 points and 9.4 rebounds this season.
Expect the defensive intensity of the Orange to be high.
Prediction: Syracuse 72, Vermont 53
Session I, Friday
By Judd Hall
Day One of the NCAA Tournament was packed full of action. Now it’s time to do it all over again on Friday with the final 16 spots in the second round up for grabs. West Virginia begins its run when the take on the Bears of Morgan State. Ten minutes later, the Musketeers and Golden Gophers square off in Milwaukee. Then at 12:30 p.m., Temple and Cornell meet up in Jacksonville, Florida. Let’s take a look at all three of these early contests.
Morgan State (15) vs. West Virginia (2) – 12:15 p.m. EDT
Most sportsbooks have installed West Virginia (27-6 straight up, 13-19 against the spread) as a 17 ½-point favorite with a total of 138. The Bears can be taken for the upset at plus-2500 (risk $100 to win $2500).
The Mountaineers come into this game with a six-game winning streak and a Big East championship. West Virginia clinched the title at Madison Square Garden against the Hoyas as 2 ½-point favorites in a 60-58 decision on March 13. Da’Sean Butler posted 20 points and seven rebounds in that game, including the game-winning shot with 4.2 seconds remaining in regulation. WVU didn’t cover in the game against Georgetown, but that isn’t new as they’re on a 2-5 ATS run in its last seven matches.
West Virginia’s Bob Huggins believes that his team deserved to get a No. 1 seed. But it’s hard to make a case for them over the Wildcats, Blue Devils and Orange. Huggins should at least take heart in the fact that a lot of our handicappers believe they are going to come out of the East Region.
Morgan State (27-9 SU, 5-5 ATS) is walking tall after clinching its second straight NCAA Tournament appearance with a 68-61victory as a 10-point “chalk” last Saturday over South Carolina State. Kevin Thompson paced the Bears to the MEAC championship with 18 points and 10 boards against the Bulldogs.
The Mountaineers have been automatic when they’ve been listed as double-digit favorites, evidenced by a 13-0 SU and 5-8 ATS mark. Totals bettors should note that the ‘under’ is 7-4 in those contests.
Todd Bozeman’s club has only been listed as double-digit pups twice this year. In those tilts, the Bears are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. Something else to keep in mind is that Morgan State was 0-5 SU against other teams in the NCAA Tournament.
The ‘over’ has gone 14-12-1 this season for West Virginia. In its last eight games, the ‘under’ is on a 6-2 run.
Clemson or Missouri will be waiting for the winner of this game in the second round.
Minnesota (11) vs. Xavier (6) – 12:25 p.m. EDT
LVSC has posted Minnesota (21-13 SU, 17-15 ATS) as a one-point favorite with the total coming in at 142. The majority of betting shops have this game set up as a pick ‘em. Bettors looking to back the Musketeers can get them at even-money.
The Golden Gophers were tap dancing on the bubble with needles on their shoes before the start of the Big Ten Tournament. Tubby Smith found a way to rally the troops to make it to the league title game against the Buckeyes after a 69-42 rout of the Boilermakers in the semis. Minnesota wound up getting railed by the Bucks 90-61 as a four-point underdog on March 14. Lawrence Westbrook posted 17 points in a losing effort.
As bad as that loss was for Minnesota, gamblers have taken solace in know that they have gone 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games of the season. When they’ve faced NCAA qualifiers, the Gophers are 6-7 SU and 7-6 ATS with the ‘under’ going 8-5.
Xavier (24-8 SU, 20-11 ATS) knew that they were going to be getting into the Big Dance, but figured to be going in as Atlantic 10 Tournament champs. That wasn’t to be for the Musketeers after losing to Richmond 89-85 as three-point favorites in the conference semifinals. Jordan Crawford came away with 20 points and eight boards against the Spiders in defeat.
Despite that loss, the Muskies have shown they can hang with some of the better teams in the nation. They’ve played tough against Marquette, Baylor and Kansas State to name a few. Yet Xavier sports a 2-7 SU and ATS mark against fellow teams in the tourney. The ‘over’ held a slight 5-4 advantage in those games.
There isn’t much to suggest the Golden Gophers are the play as single-digit favorites this season, evidenced by a 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS mark. The ‘under’ did cash in at a nice 4-2 clip.
Xavier isn’t much better as a single-digit pup as they’re 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS this season. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in this situation as well. The lone win for the Musketeers came as 4 ½-point road pups against Florida in a 76-64 triumph on Feb. 13.
The winner of this contest will most likely face Pittsburgh in the second round, who are taking on Oakland in its opening showdown.
Cornell (12) vs. Temple (5) – 12:30 p.m. EDT
LVSC has opened the Owls as 3 ½-point favorites with a total of 119. Most betting outlets have listed Temple (29-5 SU, 21-11-2 ATS) as a four-point fave with the same total.
Cornell (27-4 SU, 16-10 ATS) had no problem dominating the Ivy League this season with a 13-1 mark. Of course, the one thing that could hurt the Big Red is it will have been almost two full weeks when they take the court on Friday afternoon. In that game on March 6, they easily controlled Yale in a 79-59 win as 11-point road favorites. Louis Dale registered 18 points, while Ryan Wittman added 20 points.
The Big Red gained a lot of publicity around the nation after taking everything Kansas could give them in a 71-66 on Jan. 6 as 21-point road underdogs. The performance was the feather in Cornell’s cap of a 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS record against other teams that made the NCAA Tournament.
Temple (29-5 SU, 21-11-2 ATS) punched its ticket to the Big Dance by dropping the Spiders in the A-10 Tournament Final 56-52 as a four-point favorite on March 14. Juan Fernandez paced the Owls to the title with a 14 point, four assist performance.
The Owls have shown to be a tough out against other teams that made the tourney, evidenced by a 4-3 SU and 3-3 ATS record this season. The ‘over’ was the right bet in the majority of those games as it is 4-2.
Fran Dunphy’s club has posted an impressive 26-2 SU and 17-9-2 ATS mark when posted as single-digit favorites this season. The ‘under’ has gone 14-8-1 in those contests.
The winner of this contest will make plans to face off with either Wisconsin or Wofford in the second round.
vegasinsider.com
Session II, Friday
By Brian Edwards
March Mayhem continues Friday afternoon with games galore. Let’s break down the second game in three regions and both contests that’ll be played in Spokane.
**Siena vs. Purdue**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Purdue (27-5 straight up, 12-18-2 against the spread) as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 132. As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had the Boilermakers as four-point ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted to 130. Bettors can take the Saints to win outright for a plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160).
Siena (27-6 SU, 16-14-1 ATS) is making its third straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament. The Saints have pulled first-round upsets the last two seasons, beating fourth-seeded Vanderbilt in 2008 and knocking off Ohio St. in Dayton last year.
Fran McCaffery’s team needed overtime to win the MAAC Tournament and garner the league’s automatic bid. Alex Franklin, the MAAC Player of the Year, earned MVP of the conference tournament after leading the Saints to a 72-65 win over Fairfield in the finals. They failed to cover the number as 8 ½-point favorites, however. Franklin had 22 points and 12 rebounds against the Stags. He tallied 63 points and 31 boards in the three MACC Tourney games.
Purdue is mired in a 0-6-1 ATS slide in its last seven games. The Boilers were eliminated from the Big Ten Tournament in embarrassing fashion, as Minnesota took them behind the woodshed in a 69-42 shellacking. They fell down 37-11 at intermission with E’Twaun Moore shooting an atrocious 1-of-14 from the floor.
Matt Painter’s squad has won three of its five games without Robbie Hummel, the junior forward who was lost for the season when he tore his anterior cruciate ligament in a 59-58 win at Minnesota on Feb. 24. Hummel was averaging 15.7 points and 6.9 rebounds per game.
Siena’s Clarence Jackson is “doubtful” due to a sprained ankle sustained at practice this past Saturday. Jackson averages 14.0 points per game.
Purdue owns a 4-8-2 spread record in 14 games as a single-digit favorite. As for the Saints, they are winless and just 1-3 ATS in four games as underdogs.
The ‘under’ has cashed in seven straight Siena games and is 18-8-1 overall for the Saints.
The ‘under’ is on a 7-2 run for Purdue, which saw the ‘under’ go 15-14-1 overall.
CBS will have the telecast from Spokane at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Missouri vs. Clemson**
LVSC opened Clemson (21-10 SU, 14-14 ATS) as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 139. As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had the Tigers at one or 1 ½ with the total in the 139-140 range.
Missouri (22-10 SU, 14-12 ATS) has lost three of its last four games, dropping each of those contests ATS. The Tigers were sent packing from the Big 12 Tournament when Nebraska took them out by a 75-60 count as a 10 ½-point underdog.
Like Mizzou, Clemson didn’t stick around for long at its conference tournament. The Tigers lost 59-57 to North Carolina St. as seven-point favorites in the ACC Tourney quarterfinals.
Missouri advanced to the Elite Eight last season before losing an 82-75 decision to UConn as a six-point underdog. The Tigers beat Cornell, Marquette and Memphis prior to the loss against the Huskies.
Oliver Purnell has enjoyed a lot of success during his seven-year tenure at Clemson, but he has yet to lead the school to an NCAA Tournament victory. The Tigers are in the Big Dance for the third straight season after going to the NIT for three consecutive seasons.
Clemson is led by senior power forward Trevor Booker, who averages 15.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game.
Mike Anderson’s squad is 1-4 ATS in five underdog situations this year.
Totals have been a wash for Missouri (12-12 overall), but it has seen the ‘under’ go 6-3 in its last nine games.
The ‘under’ has been a money maker in Clemson games this year, going 17-9 overall.
**Wofford vs. Wisconsin**
-LVSC opened Wisconsin (23-8 SU, 17-12 ATS) as a 9 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 119. As of Thursday afternoon, most spots had the Badgers favored by 10 with a total of 115 ½. Gamblers can back the Terriers to win outright for a plus-500 payout (risk $100 to win $500).
Wofford (26-8 SU, 16-11-2 ATS) won the So-Con Tourney thanks to a 56-51 win over Appalachian St. as a four-point favorite. Cameron Rundles, who averages just 6.4 PPG, came off the bench to pour in a game-high 20 points for the winners.
Wofford hasn’t tasted defeat since a 70-68 loss at Charleston on Jan. 22. Since then, the Terriers have won 13 consecutive games, posting a 6-5-2 ATS mark in the process.
Mike Young has the Terriers in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history during the eighth season of his tenure. They took on a number of big-name schools in non-conference play. In fact, Wofford won 60-57 at Georgia as a 4 ½-point underdog and also beat South Carolina 68-61 as a three-point home ‘dog. Also, Wofford took the cash in losses at Pittsburgh (63-60), at Michigan St. (72-60) and at Illinois (78-64).
Bo Ryan’s team is in the NCAA Tournament for the ninth straight time in his nine-year tenure. The fourth-seeded Badgers are looking to bounce back from a 58-54 loss to Illinois as 7 ½-point favorites in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals.
Wisconsin has an outstanding backcourt featuring Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon. Hughes leads the Badgers in scoring (15.4 PPG) and steals (1.7 per game), while Bohannon averages 12.0 PPG and shoots at a 40.2-percent clip from 3-point range.
The ‘under’ has cashed at a 17-5 clip for Wisconsin in its last 22 games with a total.
The ‘under’ is 15-12 overall for Wofford.
**Oakland vs. Pittsburgh**
-LVSC opened third-seeded Pitt (24-8 SU, 16-11-2 ATS) as an 11-point favorite with a total of 138. As of Thursday afternoon, most spots had the Panthers installed as 10-point ‘chalk’ with the total lowered to 134 ½. The Golden Grizzlies are plus-500 on the money line.
Oakland (26-8 SU, 9-12 ATS) has won 11 in a row but is just 5-6 ATS during that stretch. The Golden Grizzlies have covered the number in three straight games, including their 76-64 win over IUPUI as 1 ½-point underdogs in the finals of the Summit League Tournament. Derick Nelson was the catalyst with 36 points and nine rebounds.
Junior center Keith Benson is Oakland’s go-to guy on the blocks. Benson leads the Golden Grizzlies in scoring (17.0 PPG), rebounding (10.5 RPG) and blocked shots (3.4 BPG).
Jamie Dixon did one of the best coaching jobs in America this year after losing LeVance Fields, DeJuan Blair, Sam Young and Tyrell Biggs from last season’s team that went to the Elite Eight before losing at the buzzer to Villanova. Despite those defections, Pitt finished third in the brutal Big East.
Pitt has won eight of its last 10 games, compiling a 6-3 spread record in the nine lined affairs. However, the Panthers lost by a 50-45 count to Notre Dame as two-point favorites in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals.
Oakland went 2-2 both SU and ATS in four underdog spots. The Golden Grizzlies faced four teams in the NCAA Tournament field during the regular season. They lost 58-42 at Wisconsin, 89-59 at Kansas, 88-57 at Michigan St. and 92-60 at Syracuse.
The ‘over’ is 12-6-1 overall for Oakland.
The ‘under’ is 5-2 in Pitt’s last seven outings and is 13-12-1 overall for the Panthers.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
For the first time since 1993, BYU advanced to the second round by beating Florida 99-92 in double overtime. Jimmer Fredette scored 37 points for the Cougars, who hooked up their backers with a fortunate cover as 5 ½-point favorites. The Gators rallied from a 13-point deficit in the second half and had chances to win at the end of regulation and the first extra session. But Chandler Parsons’ turnaround jumper from about 14 feet out caught the back rim at the end of regulation and UF couldn’t even get a legit look at the basket in the waning moments of the first OT.
Fredette will deservedly get all the headlines for leading BYU to the winner’s circle, but this space has to give major props to Florida freshman guard Kenny Boynton for his brilliant play Thursday in Oklahoma City. Boynton scored 11 straight points when UF went down by 13 and he finished with a team-high 27 points before fouling out in double overtime.
Baylor won its first NCAA Tournament game since 1950 when it pulled away from Sam Houston St. for a 68-59 win. The Bears failed to cover the number, however, as 10 ½-point favorites. They advance to take on Old Dominion in a second-round showdown Saturday. The Monarchs took out Notre Dame by a 51-50 count Friday in New Orleans.
vegasinsider.com
Session III, Friday
By Chris David
Friday’s primetime slate features another four battles on tap and this quartet is loaded with three ACC schools in action. Of the three, top-seeded Duke shouldn’t have any issues advancing but both Florida State and Georgia Tech should be in for dogfights against Gonzaga and Oklahoma State respectively. The remaining contest features New Mexico State against Michigan State, which could be closer than the oddsmakers believe.
Let’s break ‘em all down!
West Regional at Buffalo – No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Florida State
Florida State (22-9 SU, 8-18 ATS) and Gonzaga (26-6 SU, 15-11 ATS) tip off the evening action from Upstate New York in a battle of at-large bids. The Seminoles were one of five ACC schools to earn a ticket to the Big Dance, while the Bulldogs will be making their 12th straight tournament appearance out of the West Coast Conference.
The oddsmakers listed FSU as a short favorite (-1.5) over Gonzaga and it could have some scratching their heads, including this writer. For starters, everybody knows the ACC is very down this year. Second, how do you give points, albeit not many, with a team that has covered 30 percent of their games this year? Third, defense does help you advance but sooner or later you must score points and the Seminoles’ attack (68.5 PPG) is inconsistent and that's putting it nicely.
If you look at FSU’s nine losses, the team has given up 68 points or more in seven of them. The other two losses happened recently too, setbacks to N.C. State (52-58) in the ACC quarterfinals last weekend and on Feb. 28 to Clemson (50-53). If this game is played in the fifties or low sixties, the advantage sides with Leonard Hamilton’s club.
If you turn your attention to Gonzaga, the glass looks half full. The Zags were humbled in the WCC Championship to St. Mary’s (81-62) but that game happened 11 days ago, plenty of time for the team to move forward. Prior to that loss, the school had won nine of the last 10 and 18 of 20. The up-tempo attack has produced 77.6 PPG, which has been helped tremendously by a 49.4 field goal percentage. The 3-point shooting isn’t as deadly as past years and surprisingly, the free throw shooting (66.3%) is down too. The key to this game will be the outside shooting, since FSU’s big men have been known to control the paint.
WWC Player of the Year Matt Bouldin (16 PPG) garners a lot of the attention but backcourt mates Steven Gray (13.7 PPG) and Demetri Goodson (6.5 PPG) are solid contributors as well for Gonzaga. The one knock on the Bulldogs is their softness and lack of depth. Head coach Mark Few only uses an eight-man rotation and the three coming off the bench aren’t as capable as the starters.
The total on this game is listed at 132 and that’s based off Florida State’s pace. Gonzaga played two non-conference games in the Maui Invitational against schools with similar offensive styles, Wisconsin and Cincinnati. The Bulldogs stopped the Badgers (74-61) and held off the Bearcats (61-59) in overtime of the championship.
Whoever wins this game will get to sit back and watch No. 1 Syracuse battle No. 16 in the Vermont in the late-night tip from Buffalo. Expect a lot of Orange in attendance for this game and against the winner of the Seminoles and Bulldogs.
Midwest Regional at Milwaukee – No. 7 Oklahoma St. vs. No. 10 Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech (22-12 SU, 16-11 ATS) and Oklahoma State (22-10 SU, 15-10 ATS) meet from the Bradley Center this evening in a battle of size versus skill. The Yellow Jackets like to pound the ball inside to Derrick Favors (12.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG) and Gani Lawal (13.1 PPG, 8.7 RPG), both considered pro prospects, while the Cowboys let it rip behind gunners James Anderson (22.6 PPG) and Obi Muonelo (13.4 PPG). So far in the tournament, we’ve size dominate (St. Mary’s) but quick guard play (Ohio) has proven to be a winner too.
The Yellow Jackets won three straight games in the ACC Tournament before coming up short to Duke (65-61) in the championship. G-Tech’s offense (62.3 PPG) wasn’t that great but its defense (60.5 PPG) was tough to penetrate.
Oklahoma State defeated Oklahoma (81-67) in its Big 12 tournament opener but was blasted the next day by Kansas State (83-64). The knock on head coach Travis Ford’s team is their defense or lack thereof. The Cowboys have often shot themselves out of games, but at the same time they’ve won games with the bombs too. OSU does have wins against Kansas State (73-69) and Kansas (85-77) on the year, so some credit is deserved in Stillwater.
When you play an up-tempo attack, minutes play a large factor and that’s where VegasInsider.com James Patrick believes G-Tech has the advantage. “The Cowboys get over one-third of their offense from 3-point land and that won't cut it here against the Yellow Jackets who have a nice blend of youth and experience. What I really like about GT is the depth. It has eight players logging at least 16 minutes per game, which should play a factor here,” explained Patrick.
Georgia Tech (8-10 SU, 10-7-1 ATS) and Oklahoma State (7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS) weren’t exactly the best bets to ride when they went outside their environments this year.
Oddsmakers have made OSU a 1 ½-point favorite and the total is hovering between 136 and 137, which could be hit or miss. The Yellow Jackets have watched the ‘under’ go 16-12, but they also played ACC opponents that like to slow it down. This meeting against OSU will be a true test but a decent offense will always be able to score on a sub-par defense. The Cowboys saw the ‘over’ go 7-3 in their final 10 games. Ford and company have seen five totals of 137 or less on the year and the ‘over’ went 3-2 in those contests.
The winner of this game will most likely see No. 2 Ohio State in the next round, unless No. 15 UC Santa Barbara pulls the upset.
Midwest Regional at Spokane - New Mexico State vs. Michigan State
Can Michigan State (24-8 SU, 12-19 ATS) return to the championship game this year? Tom Izzo and the Spartans didn’t win the Big 10 title this year but they did receive an at-large bid for their work. In the first round, the Spartans have been installed as 13 ½-point favorites over New Mexico State, who won the Western Athletic Conference tournament.
Despite the double-digit number, VegasInsider.com handicapper ,Matt Fargo believes this game could be closer than the experts think. He said, “Calling for the upset here is a stretch but New Mexico State is playing as good as any team right now and quite frankly, the WAC vs. Big Ten conference theory can be tossed out. Michigan State didn’t have great chemistry this season and hasn’t appeared to be focused at times and we’ll get to see if that changes during the tournament but that is concerning coming in and “hoping” for a reversal is never of good thing to be backing.”
“New Mexico State is extremely athletic and it can score with any team in the nation. The issue has been on the defensive side of the floor but since the Aggies resurgence, they have improved quite a bit and the offense is still there to back it up with the massive depth. Over the first 13 games, New Mexico St. allowed 72 or more points 12 times but since the team is at full strength, it has allowed than many points only 13 times in its last 20 games. One of the Spartans’ weaknesses has long been perimeter defense. If this game were played in December, it would be a different story but the Aggies are a different team now. They have won 19 of their last 24 games and the run in the WAC Tournament has given them a ton of confidence.”
Fargo pointed out how hot the Aggies have been, but you should also be aware that Michigan State limped into this game. Izzo and company went 5-5 in their final 10 games and the victories came against Penn State (2), Indiana, Michigan and a banged-up Purdue squad.
Looking at the Spartans’ schedule, the only non-conference win that looked impressive came against Gonzaga (75-71). However, MSU has losses against North Carolina (82-89), Florida (74-77) and Texas (68-79), three teams that aren’t as good as past years. Perhaps we should start thinking the same about Izzo and his kids.
If this contest turns out to be a high-scoring affair like most believe, then the winner better be ready for Sunday since they’ll face either Maryland or Houston, two other explosive schools.
South Regional at Jacksonville – Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Duke
Do you lay 23 points with Duke (29-5 SU, 18-13 ATS) or take ‘em with Arkansas-Pine Bluff (18-15 SU, 2-4 ATS)? An old rule of thumb in gambling is to never bet on an underdog unless you think they can win outright, which makes sense, since you never want to concede that the team has no shot, right? If you stick with that theory, your play would be on the Blue Devils or pass, and the latter might be the better option here.
The Golden Lions won the play-in game against Winthrop (61-44) on Tuesday from Dayton behind a stifling defense. What’s impressive is that APB started the year with 14 straight games on the road and not surprisingly, it went 2-12. Fortunately, the Lions have gone 16-3 since that rough start. None of the wins were against top competition but the early losses came against tournament teams in UTEP (52-70), Oklahoma State (66-81), Georgia Tech (53-65), Missouri (70-88) and Kansas State (76-90). All of those losers were less by 18 or less, which should put things in perspective for the number on this matchup.
The Blue Devils won the ACC Championship last weekend by winning three games in three days, but the club was 0-3 ATS during this stretch. Despite the tough skid for its backers, Duke still owns a positive mark against the number (18-13) this season. And prior to the three contests played in Greensboro, Duke was 4-0 both SU and ATS in neutral games this season.
It’s hard to see head coach Mike Krzyzewski and the Devils losing in this spot, since they’ve gone 16-2 SU in their last 18 first round battles. However, they are just 6-11-1 ATS over this span.
The play-in winner the last five years has lost by an average of 20.8 PPG, the largest margin coming by North Carolina over Coppin State (107-67) in 2007 and the closest call happening in Villanova’s 58-45 victory against Monmouth in 2006.
If Duke advances, it should be in for a tougher matchup on Sunday against No. 8 California or No. 9 Louisville.
vegasinsider.com
Session IV, Friday
By Brian Edwards
At this time a year ago, I was writing about how the first day of the 2009 NCAA Tournament was about as dull as it gets for March Mayhem. There was little drama and blowouts galore. One year later, I’m not sure if I can recall a first day any better than what we saw Thursday.
Check that, I am sure. Without a doubt, we just saw the best first day in the history of the NCAA Tourney.
The first session had a pair of overtime games and a one-point game between Notre Dame and ODU. BYU beat Florida 99-92 in double OT, while third-seeded Villanova played from behind all day before beating Robert Morris in a game that went to the buzzer in the extra session. ODU held off Notre Dame, 51-50, as the Irish had a potential tying 3-pointer rim out in the final seconds.
During the next set of games, Murray State’s Danero Thomas was dinero at crunch time, draining a contested 16-footer at the buzzer to send Vanderbilt home where they were certainly singing the blues last night in Music City. Several hours after Thomas etched his heroic shot into NCAA lore forever, Washington’s Quincy Pontexter, Northern Iowa’s Ali Farokhmanesh and Wake Forest’s Ish Smith did the same with game-winning buckets.
Surely Friday’s action can’t equal what we saw yesterday? If it does, we’re in for a treat. Now let’s discuss the four late-night games on tap during the feel-good hours.
**Syracuse vs. Vermont**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened No. 1 seed Syracuse (28-4 straight up, 19-9 against the spread) as a 20-point favorite with a total of 141. As of Thursday night, most books had the ‘Cuse reduced to 16 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 142 ½. Bettors can take the Catamounts to win outright for a plus-1750 return at the Las Vegas Hilton (risk $100 to win $1,750).
Jim Boeheim’s team has dropped back-to-back games, including a 91-84 loss to Georgetown as a 5 ½-point favorite in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals. Not only did the Orange get sent packing from New York City before getting comfortable at the team hotel, but Arinze Onuaku went down with a quad injury that’ll keep him in street clothes during Friday’s first-round matchup.
Vermont (25-9 SU, 6-2 ATS) won the America East Conference Tournament with an 83-70 win over Boston U in the finals. Mike Lonergan’s squad took the money as a five-point favorite. Marqus Blakely enjoyed a dominant performance, scoring 24 points and grabbing 18 rebounds.
Blakely, a six-foot five senior forward, leads Vermont in scoring (17.4 points per game), rebounding (9.4 rebounds per game), assists (3.7 APG), steals (2.4 SPG) and blocked shots (1.9 per game). He scored a season-high 32 points in an 80-77 home win over Quinnipiac. Blakely led the Catamounts to a 77-71 win at Rutgers by producing 17 points, nine rebounds, five blocked shots, four steals and two assists compared to just one turnover.
Onuaku averages 10.7 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. He’s ‘doubtful’ for Sunday’s potential game against the Gonzaga-FSU winner. Since Boeheim usually plays only seven players, his rotation will be reduced to six. Obviously, this makes foul trouble a serious concern for the ‘Cuse.
Wesley Johnson was named Big East Player of the Year in his first, last and only season in uniform for Syracuse. The transfer from Iowa St. led the Orange in scoring (16.0 PPG) and rebounding (8.4 RPG). According to NBADraft.net’s latest mock draft, Johnson is going to be the third overall pick this summer behind only Evan Turner and John Wall.
These schools met in the first round of the 2005 NCAA Tournament with Vermont stunning Syracuse 60-57 in overtime. The Catamounts won outright as nine-point underdogs. However, unless T.J. Sorrentine and Taylor Coppenrath are given eligibility and a uniform on Friday night, there’s no reason to think another upset can occur in Buffalo. Remember, a No. 16 seed has never beaten a No. 1 seed in NCAA Tournament history.
Vermont played only one team in the NCAA field – Cornell. The Big Red knocked off the Catamounts 67-59 as a 6 ½-point home favorite.
Syracuse went 7-5 ATS in 12 games as a double-digit favorite.
The ‘under’ is 3-2 in Vermont’s five games with a total.
The ‘over’ is 4-0-1 in the Orange’s last five games, but the ‘under’ is 12-11-1 overall for the ‘Cuse.
**Houston vs. Maryland**
-LVSC opened Maryland (23-8 SU, 17-10 ATS) as a nine-point favorite with a suggested total of 151. As of early this morning, most spots had the Terrapins favored by 9 ½ with a total of 157. Bettors can back the Cougars on the money line for a plus-400 payout (risk $100 to win $400).
After a disappointing loss at Tulane in the regular-season finale, Houston (19-15 SU, 15-16 ATS) went into the Conference USA Tournament with its head coach Tom Penders on the hot seat. That’s not the case anymore, however. Not after the Cougars won four games in four days to win C-USA’s automatic bid, culminating in an 81-73 win over UTEP as seven-point underdogs in the finals.
Aubrey Coleman, who leads the nation in scoring with a 25.6 PPG average, only made 4-of-20 shots and finished with just 13 points against the Miners. But he found other ways to impact the game, grabbing nine rebounds, dishing out six assists and making four steals.
Gary Williams’ squad is looking to bounce back from a 69-64 loss to Ga. Tech as a four-point favorite in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. In the losing effort, Greivis Vasquez had 17 points, five steals, four assists and three rebounds. However, he made just 6-of-21 shots from the field and committed six turnovers.
Before the loss to the Yellow Jackets, Maryland had won seven in a row while posting a 6-1 ATS ledger.
Houston is 5-6 SU and 6-5 ATS in 11 underdog situations this year.
The ‘over’ has hit in five of Maryland’s last six games. For the season, the Terps saw the ‘over’ go 16-8-1 overall.
The ‘over’ has been a money maker in Houston games recently, cashing at a 6-1-1 clip in its last eight outings. Nevertheless, the ‘under’ still went 16-11-1 overall for the Cougars.
**Louisville vs. California**
This is the 8/9 matchup in the South Region that’ll be played in Jacksonville with the winner expected to face top-seeded Duke.
LVSC opened California (23-10 SU, 19-13 ATS) as a one-point favorite with the total marked at 143 on the send-out. As of early this morning, most spots had the Cardinals listed as one-point ‘chalk’ with the total in the 149-150 range.
Louisville (20-12 SU, 10-17 ATS) has lost three of its last five games and is mired in a 5-12 ATS slide. The Cardinals were eliminated from the Big East Tournament when Cincinnati collected a 69-66 upset victory at MSG.
Rick Pitino’s team has been a complete mystery for most of the season. The Cards own a pair of wins over top-seeded Syracuse, but they only beat three other teams in the NCAA field. Those victories came over already-eliminated Notre Dame, 15th-seeded Morgan St. and 16th-seeded East Tennessee St. And U of L needed OT to beat the Irish at Freedom Hall. Furthermore, the Cards lost at home to both Charlotte (by 18!) and Western Carolina (91-83).
Louisville senior guard Jerry Smith (8.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG) has been upgraded to ‘probable.’ Smith missed the Big East Tourney loss to Cincy after suffering a thumb injury in a March 6 win over the ‘Cuse. “It doesn't bother me at all, quite frankly,” Smith told the Louisville Courier-Journal as the team arrived at its hotel Thursday afternoon. “I practiced (Wednesday); I got hit on it a couple of times. It would get sore, but afterwards it would go away.”
Cal’s Omondi Amoke has been suspended indefinitely for an unspecified violation of team rules. Amoke averages 4.5 points and 4.6 rebounds per contest.
The ‘over’ is 14-11-1 overall for Louisville, 17-13-1 overall for California.
During this week’s special edition of the Power Hours on VI Radio, Chris Davis was extremely bullish on these Cal Bears. In fact, David called for Mike Montgomery’s team to upset Duke in the second round and get all the way to the Final Four.
**Cal-Santa Barbara vs. Ohio State**
Ohio St. (27-7 SU, 17-17 ATS) is the No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region. The Buckeyes won the Big Ten Tournament last week, destroying Minnesota by a 90-61 count to easily hook up their backers as 3 1/2-point favorites. As usual, Evan Turner was the catalyst, garnering tournament MVP honors after going off on the Gophers for 31 points, 11 rebounds and six assists.
Most books are listing Ohio St. as a 17 ½-point favorite with a total of 132. The Las Vegas Hilton has 25/1 odds for the Gauchos to win outright.
UCSB (20-9 SU, 15-11 ATS) won the Big West Tournament by beating Long Beach State 69-64 as a one-point favorite. Orlando Johnson scored 20 points, pulled down five rebounds and dished out four assists, while James Nunnally went for 19 points and six boards.
Turner was a first-team All-American, averaging team-highs in scoring (20.3 PPG), assists (5.9 APG), steals (1.8 SPG) and field-goal percentage (54%). He only missed six games after fracturing two bones in his back on a hard fall early in the year. Since Turner’s return, Ohio St. has looked like a solid Final Four contender and he’s looked like a Danny-Manning type player. Remember, Manning carried Kansas to the 1988 national title on the team eventually dubbed ‘Danny and the Miracles.’
Like Florida, Thad Matta’s team hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since it was in Atlanta for the 2007 Final Four. The Buckeyes missed the Big Dance in 2008 and lost to Siena in overtime of their first-round showdown in Dayton last year.
UCSB is 1-2 both SU and ATS as a double-digit underdog. Bob Williams’ team won 61-48 at Pacific as a 10-point ‘dog, but it got spanked at Arizona St. (69-42) and at Cal (87-66).
UCSB played just two schools in the NCAA Tourney field. The Gauchos lost to San Diego St. 69-61 as four-point home underdogs, in addition to the aforementioned setback in Berkley.
Ohio St. owns a 7-8 spread record in 15 games as a double-digit favorite.
The ‘under’ is 14-11 overall for the Gauchos. As for Ohio St., totals have been an overall wash (17-17).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
There were two overtime games in the entire 2009 NCAA Tournament. On the first day of the 2010 Tourney, we saw three games (UF-BYU, ‘Nova-Robert Morris and Wake-Texas) go to OT. On the first day of the ’09 Tourney, 13 of 16 games were decided by double-digit margins. This time around, only five of 16 games resulted in double-digit margins. And of those five, three were interesting games. UTEP led Butler at halftime before the Bulldogs ran away from the Miners. Lehigh had an early lead against top-seeded Kansas and wouldn’t go away in the first 30 minutes. Finally, Ohio’s 97-83 over Georgetown was the day’s biggest shocker. The Bobcats hooked up money-line backers with a plus-1100 return at the Las Vegas Hilton (risk $100 to win $1,100).
Thursday’s Best Games:
1-Washington over Marquette, 80-78.
2-BYU over Florida 99-92 in double overtime.
3-Murray St. over Vandy 66-65 at the buzzer.
4-Villanova over Robert Morris 73-70 in OT.
5-Wake Forest 81-80 over Texas in OT.
Most betting shops are listing Ole Miss as a 4 ½-point home favorite vs. Memphis tonight at The Tad Pad in Oxford. The total is 149 for this 6:30 p.m. Eastern tip.
Most books are listing Mississippi State as a 7 ½-point favorite for Saturday’s NIT home game against North Carolina. The Bulldogs and Tar Heels will square off at The Hump at noon Eastern.
I couldn’t help but notice the line for the UConn women’s team in its first-round NCAA Tournament game against Southern. LVSC opened the Lady Huskies as 50-point favorites.
vegasinsider.com
Tips and Trends
Siena Saints vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Saints: Siena loves this time of the year, especially in the underdog role. The past 2 seasons Siena has upset a higher ranked team in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. Siena is a #13 seed this year, and a very dangerous one at that. The Saints are 27-6 SU and 16-14-1 ATS this season. The Saints went 17-1 SU in Metro Atlantic play this season in route to the conference championship. Siena is 9-6 SU and 9-5-1 ATS away from home this season, with only 1 game coming in neutral court settings. Siena is 1-3 ATS this season as the listed underdog. The Saints have the ability to score in waves, as they've scored at least 72 PTS in each of their past 5 games. 4 different Saints players average double figures in PTS for Siena, led by F Alex Franklin. Franklin averages 16.3 PPG while shooting 56.3% from the field. Franklin also grabs 8 RPG this season, and is one of 4 starters that has started every game this season. Only 1 opponent has scored more than 70 PTS against Siena in their past 15 games.
Siena is 4-1 ATS last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
Under is 7-0 last 7 overall.
Key Injuries - G Clarence Jackson (ankle) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 68 (Side of the Day)
Boilermakers (-4, O/U 130): Despite finishing the season at 27-5 SU and as Big 10 regular season champions, Purdue could only muster a #4 seed as they enter the NCAA Tournament. Purdue has lost 2 of their past 5 games SU, with their latest loss hurting much more than your typical defeat. The Boilermakers only scored 42 PTS against Minnesota in the Big 10 conference tournament. Needless to say, they were blown out by the Gophers, and much doubt has been cast over this Purdue squad. The loss of F Robbie Hummel to injury was brutal for this Purdue team, as he had started every game this season and was arguably their best player. In both SU losses of late, Purdue could only muster 42 and 44 PTS. The Boilermakers are 13-3 SU and 5-9-2 ATS away from home this season. Purdue is 4-8-2 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Purdue has yet to win any of their past 7 games ATS heading into the NCAA Tournament. G E'Twaun Moore averages a team high 16.6 PPG this season, along with 3.7 RPG and 2.7 APG this season.
Purdue is 0-6-1 ATS last 7 games overall.
Under is 4-1 last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - G Lewis Jackson (foot) is probable.
G E'Twaun Moore (ankle) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 66
Louisville Cardinals vs. California Golden Bears
Cardinals: Predicting how Louisville will play is like putting together a jigsaw puzzle with the lights off. Louisville has beaten Syracuse twice this season SU, yet have lost by 19 PTS to St. Johns. If Coach Pitino tells you he doesn't know what truly to expect, how should anyone else know? Louisville enters the NCAA Tournament with a 20-12 SU record. The Cardinals finished Big East regular season play at 11-7 SU, good enough for 5th place. Unfortunately the Cardinals lost their opening game in the Big East tournament SU to Cincinnati. Louisville is 5-8 both SU and ATS away from home this season. The Cardinals are 4-3 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Louisville has been so inconsistent ATS this season, as they've yet to win more than back to back games this season. Defensively, Louisville allowed opponents to average 70 PPG this season. F Samardo Samuels has become a player on the national scene this year, as he averaged 15.3 PPG and 7 RPG this season. Both were team highs for one of 2 starters that started every game this season for Louisville.
Louisville is 1-5 ATS last 6 non conference games.
Over is 6-1 last 7 non conference games.
Key Injuries - G Jerry Smith (thumb) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 79 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Golden Bears (-1, O/U 149): Don't look now but the Pac-10 is starting to play pretty well at the most important time of the season. California has won 8 of their past 10 games SU entering the NCAA Tournament. Their latest SU loss came in the Pac 10 conference championship game, where they lost by 4 PTS to Washington. Cal had already won the regular season championship thanks to a 13-5 SU record. Overall, Cal is 23-10 SU and 19-13 ATS this season. The Golden Bears are 8-9 both SU and ATS this season. Cal had the unique distinction of having every single game away from home having the same exact outcome both SU and ATS this season. Cal was 9-3 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Golden Bears rely on 4 senior starters entering the NCAA Tournament, yet have just learned they will be without starting F Omondi Amoke. Amoke was sent home for a violation of team rules. Cal has scored more than 70 PTS in each of their past 4 games. 3 different Golden Bears average at least 14 PPG this season, led by G Jerome Randle. Randle averages a team high 18.7 PPG and a team high 4.5 APG this season for California.
California is 6-1 ATS last 7 games overall.
Over is 19-7 last 26 neutral site games.
Key Injuries - F Omondi Amoke (suspension) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 77