NCAAB News and Notes Friday 3/20

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Friday's Early Tip Sheet
By Judd Hall

What’s better than one day full of college hoops? A second straight day of college hoops, that’s what. The first round of the NCAA Tournament will finish up on Friday with games stretched out from noon to well into the night.

Friday’s action kicks off at 12:15 p.m. Eastern. And within 15 minutes, three more games will get underway. It’s nirvana for any hoops fan. Let’s look at the opening session.

Syracuse Orange vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks – 12:10 p.m. EDT

--This is a matchup of the third (Orange) and 14th (Lumberjacks) seeds in the South Region takes place at the American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida. The winner of this contest earns the right to square off with either Arizona State or Temple.

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened with Syracuse (26-9 straight up, 17-14 against the spread) as a 15 ½-point “chalk” with a total of 136. As of Wednesday morning, the Orange were listed as 12-point favorites. The total also has been knocked down to 131 ½.

--There were a lot of questions on whether Jim Boeheim’s had gas left in the tank after an epic sextuple overtime win over Connecticut. The Orange were able to make the Big East Title Game but fell to Louisville as 7 ½-point underdogs on March 14, 76-66. It’s the first time that the ‘Cuse failed to cover the spread in seven games.

--Stephen F. Austin (23-7 SU, 1-0 ATS) has been building up to this trip to the big dance for a while. The Lumberjacks won the regular season title last year, but got dropped in the Southland semifinals. They made the NIT, which is great. But the ‘Jacks wanted something more and got it by beating Texas-San Antonio as 7 ½-point faves on March 15, 68-57.

--The Lumberjacks have been able to hang their hat on is quality defense led by four returning seniors. They are the best defensive team in the field of 65, giving up just 56.0 points per game. SFA has played two clubs that are in the NCAA Tournament, losing at Texas A&M on Nov. 18 and beating North Dakota State on Dec. 12.

--Austin also has benefitted from having the Southland’s last two Player of the Year winners in Josh Alexander and Matt Kingsley. Alexander has averaged 14.5 PPG this season after working out of a slump during the campaign. Kingsley took the league honors this year with 16.2 PPG and 7.8 rebounds per game.

--Syracuse will provide a big challenge for the upstarts as they were the top scoring team in the Big East with 80.1 PPG. Johnny Flynn is the main man for the Orange, putting in 17.5 PPG. Don’t forget about Eric Devendorf (39.6 percent) and Andy Rautins (37.5 percent), who can make you pay from the three-point line.

--Stephen F. Austin is making its first appearance in the big dance. If you’re looking at past performances of the Southland squads, then it’ll be a quick showing since the league is 2-23 SU all-time in the NCAA Tournament.

--The No. 13 seed went 2-2 SU and ATS in last year’s tourney.

--Syracuse is 8-1 SU, but 4-5 ATS when listed as a double-digit favorite.

--Boeheim's club has lost its last two first round games in the big dance, failing to cover both times.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys – 12:25 p.m. EDT

--This showdown between eight (Cowboys) and nine (Volunteers) from the East Region takes place at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio. And short of the greatest upset in college hoops history being pulled off by East Tennessee State, the victor of this match will face Pittsburgh in the second round.

--LVSC has installed the Vols as three-point favorites with a total of 156. As of Tuesday afternoon, the Volunteers were moved to being two-point faves with the total getting pushed up 157 ½.

--Tennessee (21-12 SU, 14-16-1 ATS) probably could have wound up with a better seed if they beat the Bulldogs in the SEC Title Game. But some of the strangest inbound plays and bad whistles by the refs helped the Vols fall to Mississippi State as six-point faves, 64-61.

--Wayne Chism has proven to be a reliable scorer over the month, averaging 16.0 PPG and he’s hitting 37 percent of his three-point shots. The Volunteers also have Tyler Smith on the front with 17.2 PPG for the season.

--Bruce Pearl has guided the Vols to the NCAA Tournament in all four years he has been in Knoxville. Tennessee is 5-3 SU, but 3-4-1 ATS in these postseason matches. They fell to Rick Pitino’s Cards as a two-point pup, 79-60.

--Oklahoma State (22-11 SU, 14-12-1 ATS) is in its first season of the Travis Ford era. And Year 1 has been good so far with the Cowboys going to the dance for the first time since 2005. The ‘Pokes have been a great bet for the gambling public since they’re 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

--The Cowboys don’t have a great big man despite sporting three guys that are six-foot-eleven-inches. What they lack in size, they make up for in ferocity. Oklahoma State has received great scoring with James Anderson (18.6 PPG) and Byron Eaton (14.1 PPG).

--These two schools were awful against teams that got their dance card punched. OSU is 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS versus tourney teams this season. The Volunteers are the worst of all clubs in the field, going 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS.

North Dakota State Bison vs. Kansas Jayhawks – 12:30 p.m. EDT

--This is a 3/14 contest for the Midwest Region at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The winner here gets the right to face either the Flyers or Mountaineers on Sunday.

--LVSC has opened with Kansas (25-7 SU, 18-7-1 ATS) as a 12-point favorite with a total of 145. That line moved down to 10 on Tuesday with the total dropping a half-point. --The Jayhawks weren’t supposed to be this good this fast. After all, they started five new guys from the team that won the national championship last season. Yet Bill Self’s crew tore the Big XII apart with a 14-2 SU mark in league play. Bettors have also enjoyed backing them at the betting shops with a 12-2-2 record ATS.

--As great as Kansas was during the regular season, they still needed a strong showing in the conference tourney to have a shot at getting a top spot. But the ‘Hawks showed their youth by falling to Baylor in the quarterfinals as eight-point favorites, 71-64. The loss effectively cost KU a chance at playing in Kansas City and closer to its fan base.

--Keep an eye on Sherron Collins as he is the Jayhawks’ top offensive assassin with 18.2 PPG this year. He averaged 20 points in his last seven starts of the campaign. Also, look for Cole Aldrich to be a presence inside with 10.6 rebounds per game and just over two blocks every night.

--North Dakota State (26-6 SU, 1-1 ATS) is in uncharted waters for itself. The Bison ran wild through the Summit League this season with a 16-2 record and are making the NCAA Tournament in their first year of eligibility.

--While the Bison did control their conference this season, nerves no doubt played a part in their 66-64 win over Oakland for the tourney final. Ben Woodside nailed a 17-foot jumper with only three seconds remaining to send NDSU dancing. While the celebration ensued on the court, gamblers ripped up tickets since the Bison failed to cover as four-point faves.

--Woodside is the heart and soul of a senior-laden squad, averaging 22.8 PPG and getting 6.3 assists per game as well. Fellow senior Brett Winkelman (related to Babe?) scored 18.7 points per start, but also hounds the glass with 7.4 boards per match.

--Self has been a great investment for the gambling public since coming to Kansas in 2003, posting a 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS record. Although, he has had two first round exits with the Jayhawks. The ‘under’ is 9-7 in those matches.

Utah State Aggies vs. Marquette Golden Eagles – 12:30 p.m. EDT

--This is a 6/11 scuffle from the West Region at the Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho. The winner here gets to play Missouri or Cornell in the second round of the tournament.

--LVSC opened the Eagles as seven-point favorites with a total of 139. The public has helped move the lines, making Marquette (24-9 SU, 14-13-1 ATS) a 4 ½-point “chalk” and pushing the total up to 142 ½.

--The Golden Eagles should be happy with a sixth seed in the NCAA Tournament when you consider all that has happened over the last few weeks. They lost much of their offense with Dominic James breaking his foot on Feb. 25 against Connecticut. Without James’ 11.4 PPG and 5.1 APG, Marquette closed out the regular season 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. They fell to the Wildcats on March 12 in a 76-75 heartbreaker, but covered as a 2 ½-point pup at Madison Square Garden.

--Marquette must rely on Jerel McNeal and his ability to hit from downtown (40.2 percent from three-point range). Wesley Matthews scores 18.4 PPG this year and is proving himself to be a more than capable ball handler.

--Utah State (30-4 SU, 14-12-1 ATS) may have one of the best win/loss records in the tournament, but a lousy strength of schedule (ranked 135th) meant they needed to win the WAC Tournament. The Aggies did what needed to be done by dropping Nevada 72-62 in the title game on March 14. They even made bettors smile by covering as 1 ½-point favorites.

--One thing that Marquette must do is disrupt the Aggies’ offense. It could prove a tough task since Utah State is the most efficient offense in the nation, completing 49.8 percent of its shots from the field. Gary Wilkinson paces the squad with 17.1 PPG and 6.9 boards per start as well.

--The ‘over’ is 19-8 for Utah State’s last 27 matches when tabbed an underdog.

--Marquette has seen the ‘over’ go 9-1 in its last 10 NCAA tourney games.

--The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games listed as ‘dogs.

--The Golden Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS the last six times they played non-conference foes.

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Posted : March 19, 2009 10:46 pm

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Friday's Afternoon Tips
By Brian Edwards

**Temple vs. Arizona State**

--This is a 6/11 matchup that’ll be played at American Airlines Arena in Miami. The winner will advance to face the Syracuse-Stephen F. Austin winner on Sunday.

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Arizona State (24-9 straight up, 18-11 against the spread) as a five-point favorite with a total of 124. As of late Thursday afternoon, the total had not moved while some books had taken ASU up to 5 ½. The Owls are plus-180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

--Temple (22-11 SU, 18-11-1 ATS) has won five in a row both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 69-64 win over Duquesne in the finals of the Atlantic-10 Tournament. Dionte Christmas erupted for 29 points to spark the Owls to their second straight trip to the Big Dance.

--Christmas is the catalyst for Fran Duphy’s team, leading the A-10 in scoring with a 19.2 points per game average. Ryan Brooks (10.7 PPG) and Lavoy Allen (10.9 PPG and 8.9 RPG) are the Owls’ other primary scorers.

--Until last season, Temple had been absent from the NCAA Tournament since 2001. Duphy has the the Owls dancing again in his third season and this is the 11th team he’s taken to the tournament after going nine times as head coach at Penn.

--Arizona St. saw its three-game winning streak both SU and ATS come to a halt when USC rallied to beat the Sun Devils 66-63 in the finals of the Pac-10 Tournament.

--In Herb Sendek’s third season since leaving N.C. St. for Tempe, Arizona St. is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2003. The Sun Devils are led by one of the nation’s premier players in James Harden, who averages 20.8 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game. ASU’s Jeff Pendergraph is another solid player, averaging 14.5 PPG while shooting at a 66.5 percent clip from the floor.

--Temple has gone 4-4-1 ATS in nine games as an underdog this year. Meanwhile, ASU is 10-8 ATS as a single-digit ‘chalk.’

--ASU has won four of five head-to-head meetings between these schools, including a 65-62 win as a four-point underdog during the 2004-2005 campaign.

--The ‘over’ is 16-13 overall for the Sun Devils, 6-2 in their last eight games.

--The ‘under’ is 20-10 overall for the Owls, 9-2 in their last 11 outings.

--ASU has 150/1 odds to cut the nets down in Detroit per LVSC’s opening future numbers. Temple has 800/1 odds to win it all.

**East Tennessee State vs. Pittsburgh**

--LVSC opened Pittsburgh (28-4 SU, 16-9-1 ATS) as a 21-point favorite with a total of 150. As of early Thursday night, most books had the Panthers as 20-point favorites with the total adjusted to 148.

--Jamie Dixon’s team was sent packing from the Big East Tournament in a quarterfinals loss to West Virginia by a 74-60 count as a 4 ½-point favorite. What did that loss mean? Well, nothing in terms of seeding since the Panthers still garnered one of the four No. 1 slots. In addition, Pitt got plenty of rest which should be good for senior guard Levance Fields, who is nursing groin and back injuries but will play in the opening round.

--East Tennessee State (22-11 SU, 2-1 ATS) won the Atlantic Sun’s automatic berth by virtue of an 85-68 victory over Jacksonville in the league tournament finals. The Buccaneers took the cash as one-point underdogs. Mike Smith went off for 22 points and 12 rebounds, while Kevin Diggs pitched in with 21 points.

--Diggs leads the Bucs in scoring, pouring in 21.5 PPG. Smith averages 15.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per contest.

--Pitt has a veteran nucleus led by Fields, Sam Young and DeJuan Blair. Young leads the Panthers in scoring, averaging 18.7 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. Blair is a beast in the paint whose stock has been rising since he dominated UConn’s Hasheem Thabeet in Pitt’s win over the Huskies in Storrs. Blair averages 15.6 points and 12.2 rebounds per game. Fields scores at a 10.7 PPG clip and he dishes out 7.6 assists per contest.

--Even with the loss to the Mountaineers at MSG, Pitt has still won 10 of its last 12 games, compiling an 8-3 spread record during that stretch.

--Pitt owns a 7-5-1 spread record in 13 games as a double-digit favorite this season.

--The ‘over’ is 13-12-1 overall for Pitt.

--Tip-off on CBS should be at around 3:00 p.m. Eastern in Dayton, OH. The winner will face the Oklahoma St.-Tennessee survivor on Sunday.

**Cornell vs. Missouri**

--LVSC opened third-seeded Missouri (28-6 SU, 17-10 ATS) as a 14-point favorite with a total of 144. As of early Thursday night, most spots had the Tigers as 13-point ‘chalk’ with the total moved 146.

--Mike Anderson has done one of the nation’s best coaching jobs this season. He led Missouri to the Big 12 Tournament championship last week, as the Tigers captured a 73-60 win over Baylor as 6 ½-point favorites. DeMarre Carroll led the winners with 20 points, nine rebounds and three steals.

--Cornell (21-9 SU, 13-10 ATS) won seven of its last nine games to capture the Ivy League’s regular-season title. The Big Red went 5-4 ATS during that span. They finished

--Cornell posted a 3-3 spread record in six games as an underdog this year. The Big Red has played three games against teams in the NCAA field, going winless with a 1-2 spread record at Minnesota, at Syracuse and at Siena. They covered the number in an 88-78 loss to the ‘Cuse at the Carrier Dome.

--Missouri has been money as a double-digit favorite this year, compiling a lucrative 8-2 spread record.

--The ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive Cornell games.

--The ‘over’ is 14-13 overall for Mizzou, but the ‘under’ is on a 7-3 run in its last 10 assignments.

**Dayton vs. West Virginia**

--This is another 6/11 showdown in the Midwest region with the winner moving on to square off against the North Dakota St.-Kansas winner. This game will be played in Minneapolis.

--West Virginia (23-11 SU, 15-16 ATS) has won seven of its last 10 games, posting a 6-4 spread record. For the season, the Mountaineers are 6-10 ATS as single-digit favorites.

--Dayton (26-7 SU, 13-15 ATS) was eliminated from the A-10 Tournament when it lost 77-66 to Duquesne as a 2 ½-point favorite.

--The Flyers are 4-1 ATS in five games as underdogs this year. They have played five games against teams in the tourney field, posting an impressive 4-1 record both SU and ATS. That includes wins over Temple, Xavier, Akron and Marquette. In addition, Dayton beat NIT teams like Auburn, George Mason and Duquesne (split two regular-season meetings).

--WVU beat Notre Dame and Pitt before losing a 74-69 overtime decision to Syracuse in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament.

--Bob Huggins’ team has lost eight of its 12 games against NCAA Tournament teams. However, that stat is a tad misleading in that five of those eight L’s came against No. 1 seeds Pitt, UConn and Louisville.

--The ‘over’ is 15-11-1 overall for Dayton, 5-1 in its last six games.

--The ‘under’ is 19-12 overall for the ‘Neers, 7-2 in their last nine games.

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Posted : March 19, 2009 10:47 pm

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Friday's Prime Time Tips
By Brad Young

The second day of the NCAA Tournament wraps up the opening round with 16 games on tap across the country. Friday’s sites include Miami, Florida, Dayton, Ohio, Minneapolis, Minnesota and Boise, Idaho.

After Friday’s action, the field of 65 will be pared down to 32 teams before games take place this weekend. Now let’s take a closer look at some of Friday’s early evening matchups.

**Morehead State (16) versus Louisville (1)**

-Caesars Palace installed Louisville as a decided 21 ½-point ‘chalk’ over Morehead State, with the total set at 131 ½. CBS Sports will provide coverage this contest beginning at 7:10 p.m. ET from Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.

-Morehead State (20-15 straight up, 19-11 against the spread) captured the Ohio Valley Conference, then proceeded to trounce Alabama State in Tuesday’s play-in game as a 2 ½-point favorite, 58-43. That marked the fourth consecutive contest that the Eagles won SU and ATS.

-Morehead State jumped out to an 11-point halftime advantage, 29-18, and finished the contest by outrebounding the Hornets, 47-26. Center Kenneth Faried led the charge with 14 points and 21 rebounds, while forward Leon Buchanan contributed 14 and eight.

-The Eagles are 8-13 SU and 11-8 ATS away from home, dropping those affairs by an average score of 69-65.

-Louisville (28-5 SU, 21-10 ATS) enters the NCAA Tournament riding a 10-game SU winning streak. The Cardinals haven’t lost since getting blown out by Notre Dame February 12. Louisville capped their incredible stretch by winning the Big East Tournament over Syracuse Saturday as a seven-point favorite, 76-66. The Cardinals have covered their last four outings. The combined 142 points went ‘over’ the 136-point closing total, ending a string of three straight ‘under’ outings.

-Louisville overcame an eight-point halftime deficit, 38-30, by outscoring the Orange in the second half, 46-28. The Cardinals shot 48 percent (26-of-54) from the field, and 36 percent (10-of-28) from 3-point land. Forward Samardo Samuels led a balanced attack with 15 points, while Earl Clark added 13 and 10 rebounds.

-Louisville sports an impressive 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS road record, winning those affairs by an average score of 68-62.

-Louisville and Morehead State have actually played each other the previous few seasons, with the Cardinals going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Coach Rick Pitino’s squad prevailed in 2007 as a 24 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 73-49, and in 2008 as a 29-point home favorite, 79-41.

-Louisville enters this game with a dismal 64 percent shooting percentage at the free-throw line, the second worst among tournament teams.

**Arizona (12) versus Utah (5)**

-Caesars Palace currently has Utah as a slight one-point favorite over Arizona, with the total listed at 135. The Wildcats originally opened as a one-point ‘chalk,’ while the total started at 135 ½. CBS Sports starts its coverage of this contest at 7:10 p.m. ET from American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida.

-Arizona (19-13 SU, 17-14 ATS) appears to have gotten the very last slot in the tournament. The Wildcats went a dismal 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS their last five games, culminating in a March 12th setback to Arizona State in the Pac-10 Tournament quarterfinals as a four-point underdog, 68-56. The combined 124 points went ‘under’ the 131-point closing total, ending a string of three straight ‘over’ outings.

-Arizona outrebounded the Sun Devils, 35-30, but lost by shooting 36 percent (22-of-62) from the field while allowing ASU to connect at a 52-percent clip (25-of-48). The Wildcats’ Jordan Hill paced the offense with 20 points and 13 rebounds, while Nic Wise added 18.

-Arizona was a subpar 4-10 SU and 5-8 ATS away from home, dropping those contests by an average score of 70-66.

-Utah (24-9 SU, 18-13 ATS) enters this matchup riding a four-game SU winning streak (3-1 ATS) en route to the Mountain West Tournament title. The Utes slipped past San Diego State in Saturday’s championship game as a ‘pick,’ 52-50. The combined 102 points never seriously threatened the 124-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 6-1 the past seven games.

-Utah won the game at the free-throw line, connecting at a 74-percent clip (20-of-27) while the Aztecs scored just five points from the charity stripe. Center Luke Nevill accounted for 18 points and 15 rebounds, while guard Lawrence Borha added 12.

-The Utes maintain an 11-7 SU and 9-8 ATS road record, winning those outings by an average score of 66-62.

-Arizona has struggled in close games all season, while Utah wins those matchups by shooting an impressive 78 percent as a team from the free-throw line. The Utes offense shoots at a 48-percent clip from the field, while the Wildcats defense allows teams to shoot 44 percent.

**Southern Cal (10) versus Boston College (7)**

-Caesars Palace lists Southern Cal as a 2 ½-point ‘chalk’ over Boston College, with the total set at 135. The Trojans opened as a two-point favorite, with the total listed at 136. CBS Sports starts its coverage of this contest at 7:20 p.m. ET from HHH Metrodome in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

-Southern Cal (21-12 SU, 17-14 ATS) needed to win the Pac-10 Tournament to make the Big Dance, and rallied past Arizona State in the second half to capture the conference crown. The Trojan won that contest as a two-point Staples Center underdog, 66-63, while the combined 129 eclipsed the 120-point closing total.

-USC found itself in a 15-point halftime deficit, 39-24, before posting 42 points in the second half. The Trojans won the rebounding battle, 22-18, while shooting 52 percent (24-of-46) from the field. Forward DeMar DeRozan led all scorers with 25 points, while guard Daniel Hackett added 19 and six rebounds.

-USC is 6-10 SU and 9-7 ATS on the road, dropping those affairs by an average score of 68-67.

-Boston College (23-11 SU, 14-12 ATS) is coming off an ACC Tournament setback to Duke last Friday as an 11-point underdog, 66-65. The Eagles have covered their last two matchups. The combined 121 points failed to topple the 145-point closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to cash the sixth consecutive contest.

-Boston College shot 38 percent (23-of-60) from the field, and 35 percent (7-of-20) from behind the arc. Guard Tyrese Rice paced the offense with 17 points on 5-of-15 shooting, while Biko Paris added 15.

-The Eagles are a pedestrian 7-7 SU and 8-5 ATS on the road, with the average score of those games being 73-73.

-Boston College is 9-3 ATS when listed as an underdog its last 12 non-conference games. The Eagles sport an 8-1 ATS record their last nine games in the NCAA Tournament.

-Boston College guard Reggie Jackson (elbow) is ‘probable’ versus the Trojans.

**Portland State (13) versus Xavier (4)**

-Caesars Palace installed Xavier as a 10-point favorite over Portland State, with the total listed at 135. The total has remained constant through the week, while the Musketeers opened as an 11-point ‘chalk.’ CBS Sports begins its coverage of this game at 7:25 p.m. ET from Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho.

-Portland State (23-9 SU, 11-15 ATS) captured the Big Sky Conference automatic berth by holding off Montana State March 11 as a 7 ½-point ‘chalk,’ 79-77. The Vikings have won their last six games SU, but are just 2-4 ATS.

-Portland State was outrebounded by the Bobcats, 29-23, but prevailed by shooting 52 percent (29-of-56) from the field and 47 percent (9-of-19) from behind the arc. Jeremiah Dominguez had 22 points and five assists in the victory, while forward Julius Thomas added 17 and five rebounds.

-The Vikings sport an 11-8 SU and 6-9 ATS road record, winning those matchups by an average score of 73-70.

-Xavier (25-7 SU, 17-12 ATS) is just 1-2 SU and ATS its last three games after falling to Temple in the Atlantic 10 Tournament as a 4 ½-point ‘chalk,’ 55-53. The combined 108 points failed to topple the 131-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest.

-The Musketeers outrebounded the Owls, 34-32, while shooting 35 percent (20-of-58) from the field and 44 percent (8-of-18) from 3-point land. Forward Derrick Brown led the charge with 19 points and seven rebounds, while B.J. Raymond added 18.

-Xavier sports an 11-6 SU and 10-7 ATS road record, winning those games by an average score of 70-65.

-The Musketeers opened the season 22-2 SU before going a modest 5-5 down the stretch. The Musketeers are 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 NCAA Tournament games after reaching last year’s Elite 8.

-Portland State is a dangerous 13 seed, winning at Gonzaga this season while losing by one point at Washington.

-Portland State forward Tyrell Mara (foot) is ‘questionable’ against the Musketeers.

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Posted : March 19, 2009 10:48 pm

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Look South for Profits
By Scott Rickenbach

The NCAA Tournament offers a pair of intriguing match-ups in the South Regional on Friday, March 20th that are previewed below. As the games approach and the line movement leads to line value, this could be a case where, as the title notes, “Look South…Profits head North!” Let’s get to work!

Syracuse (3) vs. Stephen F Austin (14) – The Lumberjacks beat my alma mater, The University of Texas at San Antonio, to earn this spot. They won’t go anywhere though as they run into a tough Syracuse club. Of course, our concern here is who gets the cash and that is never any easy matter, particularly when a line is sitting right around the dozen point mark! The Orange almost have the feel of a “team of destiny”. Despite numerous overtime games and the tough scheduling of the Big East Tournament, the Orange battled and battled and battled and then battled some more! Before it was all said and done they very nearly won the Big East Championship! If Eric Devendorf and/or Andy Rautins get hot from beyond the arc – as they’re both prone to do – look out for a blowout here. With one of the best point guards in the nation, Jonny Flynn, running the offense, this is a tough team to deal with defensively.

Stephen F. Austin will have their hands full trying to contain an offense that led the Big East in scoring and in field goal percentage. The Orange beat Memphis, Kansas, and Connecticut this season! The Lumberjacks also have a solid defense but don’t forget the conference they played in. Their only “big” win (if you can call it that) outside of the Southland Conference was a victory over North Dakota State. The Lumberjacks do have very impressive defensive numbers but they only led UTSA by 5 points with less than 2 minutes to go in the Championship Game for the Southland Conference. One must remember the level of opposition that their impressive defensive numbers were compiled against. However, if you’re looking for more reasons to back the Lumberjacks here, note that Stephen F. Austin’s Matt Kingsley was the conference player of the year and tournament MVP. At 6’9 he has the size necessary to help carry a smaller school to post-season success. Looking for more hope for the Lumberjacks? Note that Stephen F. Austin coach Danny Kaspar was an assistant at Lamar when they made it to the Sweet Sixteen. However, it’s hard to go against a strong Big East team that compiled a lot of late season momentum with their strong run in their conference tournament. Unfortunately, this line will simply have to be monitored as we approach “game time” and we’ll see if it gets to a “play on” level. The edges are strong for Syracuse but laying around a dozen points against a strong defensive club is never overly comfortable either.

Arizona St (6) vs. Temple (11) – For Temple it often comes down to Dionte Christmas. When this guy is “on” it often is impossible to stop the Owls. He’s averaging over 19 points per game and he is a senior that would love nothing more than to see his Temple team make a tourney run. On the one hand, with wins over Tennessee and Xavier, it seems plausible. However, on the other hand, note that Owls Coach Fran Dunphy is just 1-10 in the “Big Dance”. Can a Dunphy led team finally find a little “magic” and make a little run? The Owls have certainly shown some moxie this season as they’ve won all four of their games that have gone to overtime. Also, while Christmas is a key player on the perimeter, Lavoy Allen does a solid job in the paint. He is a very strong rebounder and this helps eliminate second-chance opportunities for the opposition. There a quite a few caroms for the Owls to chase down because they do hold opponents to about 40% shooting from the field. This shows how solid their defense us but, speaking of solid defense, let’s talk about Arizona State!

The Sun Devils could give the Owls trouble with their zone defense. Arizona State makes up for a lack of size by being tenacious on defense. This includes solid teamwork as the Sun Devils are a perfect example of the “sum of the parts is much more than the individual parts!” Arizona State does have a standout player in the form of Pac Ten Player of the Year James Harden. Even though he’s only a sophomore, he’s an amazing talent and can be unstoppable if opponents aren’t extremely mindful of him. It’s still the defense though that makes this team tick. Teams only make about 40% of their shots against the Sun Devils and Arizona State is allowing just 59.8 points per game. With two solid defense, and some interesting zone match-ups thrown in, this truly could work itself into a defensive struggle. However, if Christmas and Harden are able to “go off” for their teams things could change in a hurry. A lower-scoring game would lend itself to value with Temple as well as making the Under worth a look. We’ll be watching the line on the side and the total closely here, as we approach Friday afternoon, to see if we find enough value to get involved here.

Posted : March 19, 2009 10:49 pm

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ARIZONA (19 - 13) vs. UTAH (24 - 9)
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ARIZONA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.