Friday's Early Tip Sheet
By Judd Hall
What’s better than one day full of college hoops? A second straight day of college hoops, that’s what. The first round of the NCAA Tournament will finish up on Friday with games stretched out from noon to well into the night.
Friday’s action kicks off at 12:15 p.m. Eastern. And within 15 minutes, three more games will get underway. It’s nirvana for any hoops fan. Let’s look at the opening session.
Syracuse Orange vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks – 12:10 p.m. EDT
--This is a matchup of the third (Orange) and 14th (Lumberjacks) seeds in the South Region takes place at the American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida. The winner of this contest earns the right to square off with either Arizona State or Temple.
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened with Syracuse (26-9 straight up, 17-14 against the spread) as a 15 ½-point “chalk” with a total of 136. As of Wednesday morning, the Orange were listed as 12-point favorites. The total also has been knocked down to 131 ½.
--There were a lot of questions on whether Jim Boeheim’s had gas left in the tank after an epic sextuple overtime win over Connecticut. The Orange were able to make the Big East Title Game but fell to Louisville as 7 ½-point underdogs on March 14, 76-66. It’s the first time that the ‘Cuse failed to cover the spread in seven games.
--Stephen F. Austin (23-7 SU, 1-0 ATS) has been building up to this trip to the big dance for a while. The Lumberjacks won the regular season title last year, but got dropped in the Southland semifinals. They made the NIT, which is great. But the ‘Jacks wanted something more and got it by beating Texas-San Antonio as 7 ½-point faves on March 15, 68-57.
--The Lumberjacks have been able to hang their hat on is quality defense led by four returning seniors. They are the best defensive team in the field of 65, giving up just 56.0 points per game. SFA has played two clubs that are in the NCAA Tournament, losing at Texas A&M on Nov. 18 and beating North Dakota State on Dec. 12.
--Austin also has benefitted from having the Southland’s last two Player of the Year winners in Josh Alexander and Matt Kingsley. Alexander has averaged 14.5 PPG this season after working out of a slump during the campaign. Kingsley took the league honors this year with 16.2 PPG and 7.8 rebounds per game.
--Syracuse will provide a big challenge for the upstarts as they were the top scoring team in the Big East with 80.1 PPG. Johnny Flynn is the main man for the Orange, putting in 17.5 PPG. Don’t forget about Eric Devendorf (39.6 percent) and Andy Rautins (37.5 percent), who can make you pay from the three-point line.
--Stephen F. Austin is making its first appearance in the big dance. If you’re looking at past performances of the Southland squads, then it’ll be a quick showing since the league is 2-23 SU all-time in the NCAA Tournament.
--The No. 13 seed went 2-2 SU and ATS in last year’s tourney.
--Syracuse is 8-1 SU, but 4-5 ATS when listed as a double-digit favorite.
--Boeheim's club has lost its last two first round games in the big dance, failing to cover both times.
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys – 12:25 p.m. EDT
--This showdown between eight (Cowboys) and nine (Volunteers) from the East Region takes place at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio. And short of the greatest upset in college hoops history being pulled off by East Tennessee State, the victor of this match will face Pittsburgh in the second round.
--LVSC has installed the Vols as three-point favorites with a total of 156. As of Tuesday afternoon, the Volunteers were moved to being two-point faves with the total getting pushed up 157 ½.
--Tennessee (21-12 SU, 14-16-1 ATS) probably could have wound up with a better seed if they beat the Bulldogs in the SEC Title Game. But some of the strangest inbound plays and bad whistles by the refs helped the Vols fall to Mississippi State as six-point faves, 64-61.
--Wayne Chism has proven to be a reliable scorer over the month, averaging 16.0 PPG and he’s hitting 37 percent of his three-point shots. The Volunteers also have Tyler Smith on the front with 17.2 PPG for the season.
--Bruce Pearl has guided the Vols to the NCAA Tournament in all four years he has been in Knoxville. Tennessee is 5-3 SU, but 3-4-1 ATS in these postseason matches. They fell to Rick Pitino’s Cards as a two-point pup, 79-60.
--Oklahoma State (22-11 SU, 14-12-1 ATS) is in its first season of the Travis Ford era. And Year 1 has been good so far with the Cowboys going to the dance for the first time since 2005. The ‘Pokes have been a great bet for the gambling public since they’re 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
--The Cowboys don’t have a great big man despite sporting three guys that are six-foot-eleven-inches. What they lack in size, they make up for in ferocity. Oklahoma State has received great scoring with James Anderson (18.6 PPG) and Byron Eaton (14.1 PPG).
--These two schools were awful against teams that got their dance card punched. OSU is 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS versus tourney teams this season. The Volunteers are the worst of all clubs in the field, going 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS.
North Dakota State Bison vs. Kansas Jayhawks – 12:30 p.m. EDT
--This is a 3/14 contest for the Midwest Region at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The winner here gets the right to face either the Flyers or Mountaineers on Sunday.
--LVSC has opened with Kansas (25-7 SU, 18-7-1 ATS) as a 12-point favorite with a total of 145. That line moved down to 10 on Tuesday with the total dropping a half-point. --The Jayhawks weren’t supposed to be this good this fast. After all, they started five new guys from the team that won the national championship last season. Yet Bill Self’s crew tore the Big XII apart with a 14-2 SU mark in league play. Bettors have also enjoyed backing them at the betting shops with a 12-2-2 record ATS.
--As great as Kansas was during the regular season, they still needed a strong showing in the conference tourney to have a shot at getting a top spot. But the ‘Hawks showed their youth by falling to Baylor in the quarterfinals as eight-point favorites, 71-64. The loss effectively cost KU a chance at playing in Kansas City and closer to its fan base.
--Keep an eye on Sherron Collins as he is the Jayhawks’ top offensive assassin with 18.2 PPG this year. He averaged 20 points in his last seven starts of the campaign. Also, look for Cole Aldrich to be a presence inside with 10.6 rebounds per game and just over two blocks every night.
--North Dakota State (26-6 SU, 1-1 ATS) is in uncharted waters for itself. The Bison ran wild through the Summit League this season with a 16-2 record and are making the NCAA Tournament in their first year of eligibility.
--While the Bison did control their conference this season, nerves no doubt played a part in their 66-64 win over Oakland for the tourney final. Ben Woodside nailed a 17-foot jumper with only three seconds remaining to send NDSU dancing. While the celebration ensued on the court, gamblers ripped up tickets since the Bison failed to cover as four-point faves.
--Woodside is the heart and soul of a senior-laden squad, averaging 22.8 PPG and getting 6.3 assists per game as well. Fellow senior Brett Winkelman (related to Babe?) scored 18.7 points per start, but also hounds the glass with 7.4 boards per match.
--Self has been a great investment for the gambling public since coming to Kansas in 2003, posting a 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS record. Although, he has had two first round exits with the Jayhawks. The ‘under’ is 9-7 in those matches.
Utah State Aggies vs. Marquette Golden Eagles – 12:30 p.m. EDT
--This is a 6/11 scuffle from the West Region at the Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho. The winner here gets to play Missouri or Cornell in the second round of the tournament.
--LVSC opened the Eagles as seven-point favorites with a total of 139. The public has helped move the lines, making Marquette (24-9 SU, 14-13-1 ATS) a 4 ½-point “chalk” and pushing the total up to 142 ½.
--The Golden Eagles should be happy with a sixth seed in the NCAA Tournament when you consider all that has happened over the last few weeks. They lost much of their offense with Dominic James breaking his foot on Feb. 25 against Connecticut. Without James’ 11.4 PPG and 5.1 APG, Marquette closed out the regular season 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. They fell to the Wildcats on March 12 in a 76-75 heartbreaker, but covered as a 2 ½-point pup at Madison Square Garden.
--Marquette must rely on Jerel McNeal and his ability to hit from downtown (40.2 percent from three-point range). Wesley Matthews scores 18.4 PPG this year and is proving himself to be a more than capable ball handler.
--Utah State (30-4 SU, 14-12-1 ATS) may have one of the best win/loss records in the tournament, but a lousy strength of schedule (ranked 135th) meant they needed to win the WAC Tournament. The Aggies did what needed to be done by dropping Nevada 72-62 in the title game on March 14. They even made bettors smile by covering as 1 ½-point favorites.
--One thing that Marquette must do is disrupt the Aggies’ offense. It could prove a tough task since Utah State is the most efficient offense in the nation, completing 49.8 percent of its shots from the field. Gary Wilkinson paces the squad with 17.1 PPG and 6.9 boards per start as well.
--The ‘over’ is 19-8 for Utah State’s last 27 matches when tabbed an underdog.
--Marquette has seen the ‘over’ go 9-1 in its last 10 NCAA tourney games.
--The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games listed as ‘dogs.
--The Golden Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS the last six times they played non-conference foes.
vegasinsider.com
Friday's Afternoon Tips
By Brian Edwards
**Temple vs. Arizona State**
--This is a 6/11 matchup that’ll be played at American Airlines Arena in Miami. The winner will advance to face the Syracuse-Stephen F. Austin winner on Sunday.
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Arizona State (24-9 straight up, 18-11 against the spread) as a five-point favorite with a total of 124. As of late Thursday afternoon, the total had not moved while some books had taken ASU up to 5 ½. The Owls are plus-180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).
--Temple (22-11 SU, 18-11-1 ATS) has won five in a row both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 69-64 win over Duquesne in the finals of the Atlantic-10 Tournament. Dionte Christmas erupted for 29 points to spark the Owls to their second straight trip to the Big Dance.
--Christmas is the catalyst for Fran Duphy’s team, leading the A-10 in scoring with a 19.2 points per game average. Ryan Brooks (10.7 PPG) and Lavoy Allen (10.9 PPG and 8.9 RPG) are the Owls’ other primary scorers.
--Until last season, Temple had been absent from the NCAA Tournament since 2001. Duphy has the the Owls dancing again in his third season and this is the 11th team he’s taken to the tournament after going nine times as head coach at Penn.
--Arizona St. saw its three-game winning streak both SU and ATS come to a halt when USC rallied to beat the Sun Devils 66-63 in the finals of the Pac-10 Tournament.
--In Herb Sendek’s third season since leaving N.C. St. for Tempe, Arizona St. is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2003. The Sun Devils are led by one of the nation’s premier players in James Harden, who averages 20.8 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game. ASU’s Jeff Pendergraph is another solid player, averaging 14.5 PPG while shooting at a 66.5 percent clip from the floor.
--Temple has gone 4-4-1 ATS in nine games as an underdog this year. Meanwhile, ASU is 10-8 ATS as a single-digit ‘chalk.’
--ASU has won four of five head-to-head meetings between these schools, including a 65-62 win as a four-point underdog during the 2004-2005 campaign.
--The ‘over’ is 16-13 overall for the Sun Devils, 6-2 in their last eight games.
--The ‘under’ is 20-10 overall for the Owls, 9-2 in their last 11 outings.
--ASU has 150/1 odds to cut the nets down in Detroit per LVSC’s opening future numbers. Temple has 800/1 odds to win it all.
**East Tennessee State vs. Pittsburgh**
--LVSC opened Pittsburgh (28-4 SU, 16-9-1 ATS) as a 21-point favorite with a total of 150. As of early Thursday night, most books had the Panthers as 20-point favorites with the total adjusted to 148.
--Jamie Dixon’s team was sent packing from the Big East Tournament in a quarterfinals loss to West Virginia by a 74-60 count as a 4 ½-point favorite. What did that loss mean? Well, nothing in terms of seeding since the Panthers still garnered one of the four No. 1 slots. In addition, Pitt got plenty of rest which should be good for senior guard Levance Fields, who is nursing groin and back injuries but will play in the opening round.
--East Tennessee State (22-11 SU, 2-1 ATS) won the Atlantic Sun’s automatic berth by virtue of an 85-68 victory over Jacksonville in the league tournament finals. The Buccaneers took the cash as one-point underdogs. Mike Smith went off for 22 points and 12 rebounds, while Kevin Diggs pitched in with 21 points.
--Diggs leads the Bucs in scoring, pouring in 21.5 PPG. Smith averages 15.5 points and 7.7 rebounds per contest.
--Pitt has a veteran nucleus led by Fields, Sam Young and DeJuan Blair. Young leads the Panthers in scoring, averaging 18.7 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. Blair is a beast in the paint whose stock has been rising since he dominated UConn’s Hasheem Thabeet in Pitt’s win over the Huskies in Storrs. Blair averages 15.6 points and 12.2 rebounds per game. Fields scores at a 10.7 PPG clip and he dishes out 7.6 assists per contest.
--Even with the loss to the Mountaineers at MSG, Pitt has still won 10 of its last 12 games, compiling an 8-3 spread record during that stretch.
--Pitt owns a 7-5-1 spread record in 13 games as a double-digit favorite this season.
--The ‘over’ is 13-12-1 overall for Pitt.
--Tip-off on CBS should be at around 3:00 p.m. Eastern in Dayton, OH. The winner will face the Oklahoma St.-Tennessee survivor on Sunday.
**Cornell vs. Missouri**
--LVSC opened third-seeded Missouri (28-6 SU, 17-10 ATS) as a 14-point favorite with a total of 144. As of early Thursday night, most spots had the Tigers as 13-point ‘chalk’ with the total moved 146.
--Mike Anderson has done one of the nation’s best coaching jobs this season. He led Missouri to the Big 12 Tournament championship last week, as the Tigers captured a 73-60 win over Baylor as 6 ½-point favorites. DeMarre Carroll led the winners with 20 points, nine rebounds and three steals.
--Cornell (21-9 SU, 13-10 ATS) won seven of its last nine games to capture the Ivy League’s regular-season title. The Big Red went 5-4 ATS during that span. They finished
--Cornell posted a 3-3 spread record in six games as an underdog this year. The Big Red has played three games against teams in the NCAA field, going winless with a 1-2 spread record at Minnesota, at Syracuse and at Siena. They covered the number in an 88-78 loss to the ‘Cuse at the Carrier Dome.
--Missouri has been money as a double-digit favorite this year, compiling a lucrative 8-2 spread record.
--The ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive Cornell games.
--The ‘over’ is 14-13 overall for Mizzou, but the ‘under’ is on a 7-3 run in its last 10 assignments.
**Dayton vs. West Virginia**
--This is another 6/11 showdown in the Midwest region with the winner moving on to square off against the North Dakota St.-Kansas winner. This game will be played in Minneapolis.
--West Virginia (23-11 SU, 15-16 ATS) has won seven of its last 10 games, posting a 6-4 spread record. For the season, the Mountaineers are 6-10 ATS as single-digit favorites.
--Dayton (26-7 SU, 13-15 ATS) was eliminated from the A-10 Tournament when it lost 77-66 to Duquesne as a 2 ½-point favorite.
--The Flyers are 4-1 ATS in five games as underdogs this year. They have played five games against teams in the tourney field, posting an impressive 4-1 record both SU and ATS. That includes wins over Temple, Xavier, Akron and Marquette. In addition, Dayton beat NIT teams like Auburn, George Mason and Duquesne (split two regular-season meetings).
--WVU beat Notre Dame and Pitt before losing a 74-69 overtime decision to Syracuse in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament.
--Bob Huggins’ team has lost eight of its 12 games against NCAA Tournament teams. However, that stat is a tad misleading in that five of those eight L’s came against No. 1 seeds Pitt, UConn and Louisville.
--The ‘over’ is 15-11-1 overall for Dayton, 5-1 in its last six games.
--The ‘under’ is 19-12 overall for the ‘Neers, 7-2 in their last nine games.
vegasinsider.com
Friday's Prime Time Tips
By Brad Young
The second day of the NCAA Tournament wraps up the opening round with 16 games on tap across the country. Friday’s sites include Miami, Florida, Dayton, Ohio, Minneapolis, Minnesota and Boise, Idaho.
After Friday’s action, the field of 65 will be pared down to 32 teams before games take place this weekend. Now let’s take a closer look at some of Friday’s early evening matchups.
**Morehead State (16) versus Louisville (1)**
-Caesars Palace installed Louisville as a decided 21 ½-point ‘chalk’ over Morehead State, with the total set at 131 ½. CBS Sports will provide coverage this contest beginning at 7:10 p.m. ET from Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
-Morehead State (20-15 straight up, 19-11 against the spread) captured the Ohio Valley Conference, then proceeded to trounce Alabama State in Tuesday’s play-in game as a 2 ½-point favorite, 58-43. That marked the fourth consecutive contest that the Eagles won SU and ATS.
-Morehead State jumped out to an 11-point halftime advantage, 29-18, and finished the contest by outrebounding the Hornets, 47-26. Center Kenneth Faried led the charge with 14 points and 21 rebounds, while forward Leon Buchanan contributed 14 and eight.
-The Eagles are 8-13 SU and 11-8 ATS away from home, dropping those affairs by an average score of 69-65.
-Louisville (28-5 SU, 21-10 ATS) enters the NCAA Tournament riding a 10-game SU winning streak. The Cardinals haven’t lost since getting blown out by Notre Dame February 12. Louisville capped their incredible stretch by winning the Big East Tournament over Syracuse Saturday as a seven-point favorite, 76-66. The Cardinals have covered their last four outings. The combined 142 points went ‘over’ the 136-point closing total, ending a string of three straight ‘under’ outings.
-Louisville overcame an eight-point halftime deficit, 38-30, by outscoring the Orange in the second half, 46-28. The Cardinals shot 48 percent (26-of-54) from the field, and 36 percent (10-of-28) from 3-point land. Forward Samardo Samuels led a balanced attack with 15 points, while Earl Clark added 13 and 10 rebounds.
-Louisville sports an impressive 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS road record, winning those affairs by an average score of 68-62.
-Louisville and Morehead State have actually played each other the previous few seasons, with the Cardinals going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Coach Rick Pitino’s squad prevailed in 2007 as a 24 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 73-49, and in 2008 as a 29-point home favorite, 79-41.
-Louisville enters this game with a dismal 64 percent shooting percentage at the free-throw line, the second worst among tournament teams.
**Arizona (12) versus Utah (5)**
-Caesars Palace currently has Utah as a slight one-point favorite over Arizona, with the total listed at 135. The Wildcats originally opened as a one-point ‘chalk,’ while the total started at 135 ½. CBS Sports starts its coverage of this contest at 7:10 p.m. ET from American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida.
-Arizona (19-13 SU, 17-14 ATS) appears to have gotten the very last slot in the tournament. The Wildcats went a dismal 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS their last five games, culminating in a March 12th setback to Arizona State in the Pac-10 Tournament quarterfinals as a four-point underdog, 68-56. The combined 124 points went ‘under’ the 131-point closing total, ending a string of three straight ‘over’ outings.
-Arizona outrebounded the Sun Devils, 35-30, but lost by shooting 36 percent (22-of-62) from the field while allowing ASU to connect at a 52-percent clip (25-of-48). The Wildcats’ Jordan Hill paced the offense with 20 points and 13 rebounds, while Nic Wise added 18.
-Arizona was a subpar 4-10 SU and 5-8 ATS away from home, dropping those contests by an average score of 70-66.
-Utah (24-9 SU, 18-13 ATS) enters this matchup riding a four-game SU winning streak (3-1 ATS) en route to the Mountain West Tournament title. The Utes slipped past San Diego State in Saturday’s championship game as a ‘pick,’ 52-50. The combined 102 points never seriously threatened the 124-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 6-1 the past seven games.
-Utah won the game at the free-throw line, connecting at a 74-percent clip (20-of-27) while the Aztecs scored just five points from the charity stripe. Center Luke Nevill accounted for 18 points and 15 rebounds, while guard Lawrence Borha added 12.
-The Utes maintain an 11-7 SU and 9-8 ATS road record, winning those outings by an average score of 66-62.
-Arizona has struggled in close games all season, while Utah wins those matchups by shooting an impressive 78 percent as a team from the free-throw line. The Utes offense shoots at a 48-percent clip from the field, while the Wildcats defense allows teams to shoot 44 percent.
**Southern Cal (10) versus Boston College (7)**
-Caesars Palace lists Southern Cal as a 2 ½-point ‘chalk’ over Boston College, with the total set at 135. The Trojans opened as a two-point favorite, with the total listed at 136. CBS Sports starts its coverage of this contest at 7:20 p.m. ET from HHH Metrodome in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
-Southern Cal (21-12 SU, 17-14 ATS) needed to win the Pac-10 Tournament to make the Big Dance, and rallied past Arizona State in the second half to capture the conference crown. The Trojan won that contest as a two-point Staples Center underdog, 66-63, while the combined 129 eclipsed the 120-point closing total.
-USC found itself in a 15-point halftime deficit, 39-24, before posting 42 points in the second half. The Trojans won the rebounding battle, 22-18, while shooting 52 percent (24-of-46) from the field. Forward DeMar DeRozan led all scorers with 25 points, while guard Daniel Hackett added 19 and six rebounds.
-USC is 6-10 SU and 9-7 ATS on the road, dropping those affairs by an average score of 68-67.
-Boston College (23-11 SU, 14-12 ATS) is coming off an ACC Tournament setback to Duke last Friday as an 11-point underdog, 66-65. The Eagles have covered their last two matchups. The combined 121 points failed to topple the 145-point closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to cash the sixth consecutive contest.
-Boston College shot 38 percent (23-of-60) from the field, and 35 percent (7-of-20) from behind the arc. Guard Tyrese Rice paced the offense with 17 points on 5-of-15 shooting, while Biko Paris added 15.
-The Eagles are a pedestrian 7-7 SU and 8-5 ATS on the road, with the average score of those games being 73-73.
-Boston College is 9-3 ATS when listed as an underdog its last 12 non-conference games. The Eagles sport an 8-1 ATS record their last nine games in the NCAA Tournament.
-Boston College guard Reggie Jackson (elbow) is ‘probable’ versus the Trojans.
**Portland State (13) versus Xavier (4)**
-Caesars Palace installed Xavier as a 10-point favorite over Portland State, with the total listed at 135. The total has remained constant through the week, while the Musketeers opened as an 11-point ‘chalk.’ CBS Sports begins its coverage of this game at 7:25 p.m. ET from Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho.
-Portland State (23-9 SU, 11-15 ATS) captured the Big Sky Conference automatic berth by holding off Montana State March 11 as a 7 ½-point ‘chalk,’ 79-77. The Vikings have won their last six games SU, but are just 2-4 ATS.
-Portland State was outrebounded by the Bobcats, 29-23, but prevailed by shooting 52 percent (29-of-56) from the field and 47 percent (9-of-19) from behind the arc. Jeremiah Dominguez had 22 points and five assists in the victory, while forward Julius Thomas added 17 and five rebounds.
-The Vikings sport an 11-8 SU and 6-9 ATS road record, winning those matchups by an average score of 73-70.
-Xavier (25-7 SU, 17-12 ATS) is just 1-2 SU and ATS its last three games after falling to Temple in the Atlantic 10 Tournament as a 4 ½-point ‘chalk,’ 55-53. The combined 108 points failed to topple the 131-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest.
-The Musketeers outrebounded the Owls, 34-32, while shooting 35 percent (20-of-58) from the field and 44 percent (8-of-18) from 3-point land. Forward Derrick Brown led the charge with 19 points and seven rebounds, while B.J. Raymond added 18.
-Xavier sports an 11-6 SU and 10-7 ATS road record, winning those games by an average score of 70-65.
-The Musketeers opened the season 22-2 SU before going a modest 5-5 down the stretch. The Musketeers are 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 NCAA Tournament games after reaching last year’s Elite 8.
-Portland State is a dangerous 13 seed, winning at Gonzaga this season while losing by one point at Washington.
-Portland State forward Tyrell Mara (foot) is ‘questionable’ against the Musketeers.
vegasinsider.com
Look South for Profits
By Scott Rickenbach
The NCAA Tournament offers a pair of intriguing match-ups in the South Regional on Friday, March 20th that are previewed below. As the games approach and the line movement leads to line value, this could be a case where, as the title notes, “Look South…Profits head North!” Let’s get to work!
Syracuse (3) vs. Stephen F Austin (14) – The Lumberjacks beat my alma mater, The University of Texas at San Antonio, to earn this spot. They won’t go anywhere though as they run into a tough Syracuse club. Of course, our concern here is who gets the cash and that is never any easy matter, particularly when a line is sitting right around the dozen point mark! The Orange almost have the feel of a “team of destiny”. Despite numerous overtime games and the tough scheduling of the Big East Tournament, the Orange battled and battled and battled and then battled some more! Before it was all said and done they very nearly won the Big East Championship! If Eric Devendorf and/or Andy Rautins get hot from beyond the arc – as they’re both prone to do – look out for a blowout here. With one of the best point guards in the nation, Jonny Flynn, running the offense, this is a tough team to deal with defensively.
Stephen F. Austin will have their hands full trying to contain an offense that led the Big East in scoring and in field goal percentage. The Orange beat Memphis, Kansas, and Connecticut this season! The Lumberjacks also have a solid defense but don’t forget the conference they played in. Their only “big” win (if you can call it that) outside of the Southland Conference was a victory over North Dakota State. The Lumberjacks do have very impressive defensive numbers but they only led UTSA by 5 points with less than 2 minutes to go in the Championship Game for the Southland Conference. One must remember the level of opposition that their impressive defensive numbers were compiled against. However, if you’re looking for more reasons to back the Lumberjacks here, note that Stephen F. Austin’s Matt Kingsley was the conference player of the year and tournament MVP. At 6’9 he has the size necessary to help carry a smaller school to post-season success. Looking for more hope for the Lumberjacks? Note that Stephen F. Austin coach Danny Kaspar was an assistant at Lamar when they made it to the Sweet Sixteen. However, it’s hard to go against a strong Big East team that compiled a lot of late season momentum with their strong run in their conference tournament. Unfortunately, this line will simply have to be monitored as we approach “game time” and we’ll see if it gets to a “play on” level. The edges are strong for Syracuse but laying around a dozen points against a strong defensive club is never overly comfortable either.
Arizona St (6) vs. Temple (11) – For Temple it often comes down to Dionte Christmas. When this guy is “on” it often is impossible to stop the Owls. He’s averaging over 19 points per game and he is a senior that would love nothing more than to see his Temple team make a tourney run. On the one hand, with wins over Tennessee and Xavier, it seems plausible. However, on the other hand, note that Owls Coach Fran Dunphy is just 1-10 in the “Big Dance”. Can a Dunphy led team finally find a little “magic” and make a little run? The Owls have certainly shown some moxie this season as they’ve won all four of their games that have gone to overtime. Also, while Christmas is a key player on the perimeter, Lavoy Allen does a solid job in the paint. He is a very strong rebounder and this helps eliminate second-chance opportunities for the opposition. There a quite a few caroms for the Owls to chase down because they do hold opponents to about 40% shooting from the field. This shows how solid their defense us but, speaking of solid defense, let’s talk about Arizona State!
The Sun Devils could give the Owls trouble with their zone defense. Arizona State makes up for a lack of size by being tenacious on defense. This includes solid teamwork as the Sun Devils are a perfect example of the “sum of the parts is much more than the individual parts!” Arizona State does have a standout player in the form of Pac Ten Player of the Year James Harden. Even though he’s only a sophomore, he’s an amazing talent and can be unstoppable if opponents aren’t extremely mindful of him. It’s still the defense though that makes this team tick. Teams only make about 40% of their shots against the Sun Devils and Arizona State is allowing just 59.8 points per game. With two solid defense, and some interesting zone match-ups thrown in, this truly could work itself into a defensive struggle. However, if Christmas and Harden are able to “go off” for their teams things could change in a hurry. A lower-scoring game would lend itself to value with Temple as well as making the Under worth a look. We’ll be watching the line on the side and the total closely here, as we approach Friday afternoon, to see if we find enough value to get involved here.
ARIZONA (19 - 13) vs. UTAH (24 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CLEVELAND ST (25 - 10) vs. WAKE FOREST (24 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
WAKE FOREST is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND ST is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND ST is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND ST is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 71-98 ATS (-36.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
SF AUSTIN ST (24 - 7) vs. SYRACUSE (26 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 43-69 ATS (-32.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TEMPLE (22 - 11) vs. ARIZONA ST (24 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
TEMPLE is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
TEMPLE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
TEMPLE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival this season.
TEMPLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
TEMPLE is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MOREHEAD ST (20 - 15) vs. LOUISVILLE (28 - 5)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 1-1 against the spread versus MOREHEAD ST over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 2-0 straight up against MOREHEAD ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SIENA (26 - 7) vs. OHIO ST (22 - 10)
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 57-40 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 57-40 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
E TENN ST (23 - 10) vs. PITTSBURGH (28 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) on Friday nights since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
E TENN ST is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) in March games since 1997.
E TENN ST is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
E TENN ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.
E TENN ST is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
E TENN ST is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TENNESSEE (21 - 12) vs. OKLAHOMA ST (22 - 11)
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 19-37 ATS (-21.7 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 19-37 ATS (-21.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ROBERT MORRIS (24 - 10) vs. MICHIGAN ST (26 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
USC (21 - 12) vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (22 - 11)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 82-56 ATS (+20.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
USC is 56-37 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
USC is 56-37 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
USC is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in March games since 1997.
USC is 45-29 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
N DAKOTA ST (26 - 6) vs. KANSAS (25 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
KANSAS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after a conference game this season.
KANSAS is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KANSAS is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
DAYTON (26 - 7) vs. W VIRGINIA (23 - 11)
Top Trends for this game.
W VIRGINIA is 74-47 ATS (+22.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
W VIRGINIA is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.
W VIRGINIA is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
CORNELL (21 - 9) vs. MISSOURI (28 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
CORNELL is 81-53 ATS (+22.7 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
CORNELL is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
CORNELL is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.
CORNELL is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
CORNELL is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
UTAH ST (30 - 4) vs. MARQUETTE (24 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
MARQUETTE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 66-40 ATS (+22.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
UTAH ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
WISCONSIN (19 - 12) vs. FLORIDA ST (25 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 1-0 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND ST (23 - 9) vs. XAVIER (25 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
XAVIER is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
XAVIER is 69-44 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MIAMI (19 - 12) at FLORIDA (24 - 10)
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 185-148 ATS (+22.2 Units) in all games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 185-148 ATS (+22.2 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
FLORIDA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
MIAMI is 87-59 ATS (+22.1 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
MIAMI is 75-48 ATS (+22.2 Units) in road games since 1997.
MIAMI is 75-48 ATS (+22.2 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
MIAMI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games against SEC opponents since 1997.
MIAMI is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) on Friday nights since 1997.
MIAMI is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
MIAMI is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TULSA (25 - 10) at AUBURN (23 - 11)
Top Trends for this game.
AUBURN is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games this season.
AUBURN is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games this season.
AUBURN is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all home games this season.
AUBURN is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in home lined games this season.
AUBURN is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
AUBURN is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
TULSA is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
KANSAS ST (22 - 11) at SAN DIEGO ST (24 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Arizona vs. Utah, 7:10 ET
Arizona:
5-14 ATS playing with 7+ days rest
2-8 ATS in tournament games
Utah:
6-0 ATS after allowing 60pts or less BB games
7-1 Under off 3+ Unders
Cleveland State vs. Wake Forest, 9:40 ET
Cleveland State:
11-1 ATS off road win
24-12 ATS off ATS win
Wake Forest:
1-9 ATS vs. NCAA Tournament
4-16 ATS Away off SU loss as favorite
Steven F Austin vs. Syracuse, 12:15 ET
Steven F Austin:
n/a
n/a
Syracuse:
6-0 Over in tournament games
8-20 ATS if underdog L2 games
Temple vs. Arizona State, 2:45 ET
Temple:
6-0 ATS in tournament games
10-1 ATS in March
Arizona St:
5-1 Under on neutral court
1-5 ATS off loss by 3pts or less
Siena vs. Ohio State, 9:40 ET
Siena:
9-2 Over off an Under
10-3 Over off 3+ SU wins
Ohio State:
8-2 ATS as neutral court favorite
5-1 Over in NCAA Tournament
East Tenn State vs. Pittsburgh, 2:55 ET
East Tenn State:
14-1 ATS in March
14-5 Over off SU win
Pittsburgh:
10-3 Over as DD favorite
10-3 Over off DD loss
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma State, 12:25 ET
Tennnessee:
14-33 ATS in tournament games
5-17 ATS Away on Friday nights
Oklahoma State:
31-16 ATS after scoring 60pts or less
16-6 Under as neutral court underdog
Robert Morris vs. Michigan State, 9:50 ET
Robert Morris:
2-7 ATS as underdog
5-1 Under in all games
Michigan State:
9-0 ATS off a DD loss
9-2 ATS off conference loss as favorite of 6pts or more
USC vs. Boston College, 7:20 ET
USC:
5-1 Under vs. ACC
1-5 ATS off 4+ ATS wins
Boston College:
6-0 ATS in tournament games
12-4 ATS as neutral court dog of 6pts or less
North Dakota St vs. Kansas, 12:30 ET
North Dakota St:
5-1 Under off BB SU wins
6-0 ATS vs. non-conference
Kansas:
9-3 Under as DD favorite
3-0 Under on neutral court
Dayton vs. West Virginia, 3:00 ET
Dayton:
5-1 Over as an underdog
11-6 Over off conference game
West Virginia:
12-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament
74-47 ATS vs. non-conference
Cornell vs. Missouri, 3:00 ET
Cornell:
11-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less
8-1 ATS Off ATS loss
Missouri:
1-8 ATS Away off 3+ SU wins
8-2 Over off BB Unders
Utah St vs. Marquette, 12:30 ET
Utah State:
4-1 ATS as an underdog
12-4 Over in March
Marquette:
16-6 Over as neutral court favorite
60-34 Over off ATS win
Wisconsin vs. Florida St, 12:30 ET
Wisconsin:
3-10 ATS playing only their 2nd game in 8 days
40-19 Under in March
Florida St:
7-1 ATS off ATS loss
10-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
Portland State vs. Xavier, 7:25 ET
Portland St:
0-3 ATS in 1st round tournament games
17-11 Over as underdog
Xavier:
10-3 ATS as DD favorite
6-0 Over in NCAA Tournament
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN vs. SYRACUSE
No trends available
Syracuse is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Syracuse is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
TENNESSEE vs. OKLAHOMA STATE
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Oklahoma State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Oklahoma State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
NORTH DAKOTA STATE vs. KANSAS
No trends available
Kansas is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games
Kansas is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
UTAH STATE vs. MARQUETTE
Utah State is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah State's last 7 games
Marquette is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
Marquette is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
TEMPLE vs. ARIZONA STATE
Temple is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Temple is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona State is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
Arizona State is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
EAST TENNESSEE STATE vs. PITTSBURGH
No trends available
Pittsburgh is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Pittsburgh is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
CORNELL vs. MISSOURI
Cornell is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cornell's last 5 games
Missouri is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Missouri is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
DAYTON vs. WEST VIRGINIA
Dayton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Dayton is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
West Virginia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of West Virginia's last 15 games
MIAMI vs. FLORIDA
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Miami is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Florida is 19-1 SU in its last 20 games at home
Florida is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
ARIZONA vs. UTAH
Arizona is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Utah is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
Utah is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
MOREHEAD STATE vs. LOUISVILLE
Morehead State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Louisville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
USC vs. BOSTON COLLEGE
USC is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
USC is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston College's last 5 games
PORTLAND STATE vs. XAVIER
Portland State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Portland State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Xavier is 4-6-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Xavier is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games
TULSA vs. AUBURN
Tulsa is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tulsa's last 6 games on the road
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Auburn is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
KANSAS STATE vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
Kansas State is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Kansas State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
San Diego State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
CLEVELAND STATE vs. WAKE FOREST
Cleveland State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland State is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Wake Forest is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Wake Forest's last 10 games
SIENA vs. OHIO STATE
Siena is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Siena's last 13 games
Ohio State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
ROBERT MORRIS vs. MICHIGAN STATE
No trends available
Michigan State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Michigan State's last 11 games
WISCONSIN vs. FLORIDA STATE
Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Wisconsin is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Florida State is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
NCAAB Today
Afternoon card
Syracuse played seven OTs in four games at Big East tourney last week; they're 7-1 in last eight games, 4-0 in last four as a favorite. Orangemen are 1-5 vs spread as non-conference favorite. Over last 11 years, #3 seed in Southeast is 9-1-1 vs spread in this game; with only loss Iowa's loss to Northwestern State three years ago, the last #3 seed to get beat. Stephen F. Austin is #2 in nation in 3-point defense, allowing 28.6% of shots to go in-- they beat Oklahoma LY, and are 50-13 the last two seasons.
Tennessee, Oklahoma State were both at Old Spice tourney in Florida in November, but didn't play each other; Cowboys won eight of their last ten games (9-1 vs spread); they were 5-4 as Big 12 underdog, after being 0-3 as non-league dog. Erratic Vols lost last three non-league games, by 7-10ot-2 points- they won five of last seven games, are 6-9 vs spread in its last 15 games as a favorite. Favorites are 8-4 vs spread in 8-9 games the last three years; #9's are 13-11 against 8's the last six seasons.
Kansas is defending national champ, but all five of the starters from LY are gone- they lost to Baylor in Big 12 tourney. North Dakota State has big following, they'll have ton of fans in Twin Cities; eight of its players are from Minnesota, 3.5 hours away from the Bison's campus. Eight of top ten Bison players are seniors, with three fifth-year seniors. Kansas is 5-3 vs spread as a non-league favorite, but they've also lost first round games to Bucknell, Bradley recently, when they weren't #1 seeds.
Marquette lost five of six games since PG James got hurt; they're 1-4 vs spread in last five games as a favorite, but rallied from 16-point halftime deficit to take lead vs Villanova in last game, so they're talented, albeit a thin group. Utah State is 4-1 as underdog this season; they've won last four games, after 1-3 skid that included losses to Boise, St Mary's and Nevada, all on road. #6 seeds are 13-7 vs spread vs 11's in the last five tournaments, although #11 seed in West is 4-4 SU the last eight years.
Arizona State blew 15-point halftime lead and lost Pac-10 title game to USC Saturday, ASU's fourth loss in last seven games- they're 9-6 vs the spread in last 15 games as favorite, 11-1 SU outside the Pac-10, with a 28-point win vs Charlotte in only game vs A-14 opponent. Temple won its last five games to steal bid for second year in row- Owls are 8-6 in its non-A-14 games, 1-4 vs spread in last five games as underdog. #6 seed in Southeast is 9-1 vs spread in last ten first-round games.
Pitt is 13-0 outside Big East, 5-2 vs spread in those games; they won by 14 against Belmont, which tied ETSU for 2nd in A-Sun. East Tennessee is athletic team that ranks high in pace (24th), blocked shots (69th) but they played a terrible schedule-- best teams they played were losses to Temple (14), Bradley (13). Bucs assisted on just 44.9% of their baskets; they'll have trouble getting to hoop off dribble vs stout Pitt defense. Big ifs for Pitt are Fields' back and if Blair gets in foul trouble.
West Virginia is 11-2 outside Big East, 3-4 vs spread as favorite; they're just 4-3 in last seven games, 2-4 in their last seven as favorite- they won 68-63 over Duquesne, in only game was A-14 foe. Dayton lost its point guard Feb 11, late in win over Xavier; Flyers went 3-4 in last seven tilts, are 5-3 vs spread as underdog this season- they upset Marquette 89-75 in only game vs Big East opponent. Mirror image game; both teams are strong on defense, excellent on boards-- will be very physical game.
Ivy League teams are 0-10 in NCAAs the last decade, 1-9 vs spread in those games; this season, Cornell lost by 20 at Princeton, 12 at Yale, 15 at a terrible Indiana team, 11 to St John's. Playing in altitude against the pressing Missouri Tigers (force turnovers on 25.6% of possessions), it will be surprising if Big Red can keep up for 40 minutes. I saw them in December at Siena, and they wilted in second half, after being down four at half, and Siena didn't pressure the ball the way Missouri will.
Friday night games
Louisville whacked Morehead State 79-41 in its season opener Nov 22; game was 29-20 at half; Eagles shot 29%, 3-19 from arc, but lot of water under bridge since then; Cardinals won Big East tournament, have won 10 games in row (9-1 vs the spread); they're 3-1 in last four first round games, winning by 22-6-18 points- they won 94-75 vs Austin Peay in their other game vs OVC opponent. Morehead started season 0-6, with 74-48 loss at Vandy- they also lost last three regular season games.
Arizona lost five of last six games, has no depth-- three of their starters probably won't come out of game, but they're all NBA-type players, so they have edge in talent here. Since 1985, Wildcats are 0-7 in NCAAs as lower than a 4-seed- they lost by 15 at UNLV, beat San Diego State by 13 in games vs MWC teams. Utah has junior, four seniors in its top six players, with 7-2 C Nevill an NBA player. Utes split pair vs the Pac-10 beating Oregon by 14, losing by 3 to California, both at home.
USC won Pac-10 tourney to get here; Trojans won last five games, but lost last four games outside of LA, with last win outside LA Jan 24 up at Washington State, 46-44. Boston College is 3-5 in its last eight games; they're 12-3 outside the ACC, but lost to Harvard- they have the terrific senior PG (Rice) but rest of team is freshman/sophomores, very young squad. USC beat Ga Tech 76-57 in only game vs ACC foe. BC is 9-1 in last ten first round games, with favorites covering the last five.
Portland State (+19) won 77-70 at Gonzaga Dec 23, nine days after they lost 74-73 at Washington, so Vikings can play with big boys- they rank 5th in US, scoring 39.8% of points beyond arc. Big Sky teams are 1-8 in this event last nine years (4-4 vs spread), losing last two years by 28-24 points. Xavier split last 10 games after 20-2 start; they went 12-2 in the pre-conference games, beating Memphis, Missouri, Va Tech in tourney. #4 seed in the East covered seven of last nine first-round games.
Siena upset Vanderbilt in LY's tournament, but has road game here, out in Buckeye territory; Saints played tough non-league schedule, but could not come up with a quality win (best win vs Northern Iowa), losing to Tennessee by 14, Oklahoma State by 9, Pitt by 13, Kansas by 7. Ohio State is very young (328th in experience, no seniors); they play slowish tempo (288; Siena is 16) but shoot ball well (37.9% from arc)/ Buckeyes also ranked 5th in country in blocked shot percentage.
Wake Forest is very young (only one senior); after 16-0 start, they had a 4-5 slump, then won four of last five games, losing to Maryland in first round of ACC tourney. Veteran Cleveland State team (four seniors start) is 11-2 in last 13 games, but is just 6-4 outside Horizon League- they've forced turnovers on 24% of possessions (14th in US)- they lost by 15 at Washington, 10 at home to Kansas State, 10 at West Va- they won by 3 at Syracuse on 60-foot bank shot at the buzzer. .
Michigan State is 4-3 in last seven first round games, with zero wins by more than 15 points; Spartans won five of last six games, are 10-2 in its non-league games (3-4 as favorite). Robert Morris lost by 8 at Miami, 21 at Xavier, 26 at Duquesne, 14 at Rutgers- they turn ball over 22% of the time, a lot for good team, but they're experienced team that makes 39.7% of its 3's. NEC teams are 0-24 in this round (won two play-in games), but covered three of their last four in this round.
Wisconsin snuck into tournament despite its six-game skid in January-- Badgers play slowest tempo games in D-I, are 9-3 outside Big 11, with 74-72 win at Va Tech in only game vs ACC opponent. Florida State is in NCAAs for first time in 11 years; they're young team except for a super senior guard (Douglas). Seminoles rank 12th in defensive efficiency, 6th in blocked shots, so Badgers will have to hit some 3's to do damage here. FSU's lost only game to Big 11 opponent, 73-59 at Northwestern.
Tips and Trends
South Region: #11 Temple vs. #6 Arizona State
Temple: It's no secret that the Owls will be relying on Dionte Christmas to lead them in the NCAA tournament. If Christmas does not deliver, they will likely go home early. “I don’t think we’re going to win a lot of big games if Dionte doesn’t have a great game,” said Temple's Semaj Inge. “He has had an interesting year,” Owls head coach Fran Dunphy said of Christmas. “He has made more big shots this year for us, but he hasn’t shot the best percentage this year. We’ve become so spoiled watching him play that we think that every time he shoots it, it’s going to go in the basket.”
Temple is 5-0 SU & ATS in its last 5 games overall.
The UNDER is 9-2 in Temple's last 11 games overall.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 57
Arizona State (-5.5, O/U 124): The Sun Devils will try to rebound from a disappointing loss in the Pac-10 tournament title game last Saturday, as they blew a 15-point halftime lead. They were on the wrong side of a 66-63 decision against USC and now will look to bounce back behind Pac-10 Player of the Year James Harden, who returned to school just for this opportunity. “Him being an all-star player, it’s always important for him to have a big game,” Arizona State's Jeff Pendergraph said. “But I’m not too worried about James. He’s a big-time player when the lights are on.”.
Arizona State is 3-1 ATS in its last 4 games overall.
The OVER is 6-2 in Arizona State's last 8 games overall.
Key Injuries - G Jamelle McMillan (groin) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 67 (Side Play of the Day)
Midwest Region: #9 Siena vs. #8 Ohio State
Siena: The Saints will not be sneaking up on anybody in this year's Big Dance after beating Vanderbilt in the first round of last year's tournament. They also scheduled four quality non-conference opponents this year but came up on the losing end of all of them. “We didn’t have one game this year that we could sort of mail it in,” Siena head coach Fran McCaffery. “I think that helped our focus and it made us a tough road team. This year, with the so-called target on our backs every night, they were able to focus and do the things necessary to win, especially at the end of the game. Obviously that’s what you need in this environment.”
Siena is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games overall.
The OVER is 9-4 in Siena's last 13 games overall.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 72 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)
Ohio State (-3, O/U 142.5): The Buckeyes will have a distinct home-court advantage playing nearby in Dayton and hope to make up for missing out on last year's NCAA tournament. They lost to Florida in the national championship game just two years ago but lost three starters to the NBA and had to rebuild. That humbling experience could help them in this spot. “It was kind of a wake-up call for us,” Ohio State sophomore forward Jon Diebler said. “Just because we’re Ohio State doesn’t mean we’re guaranteed a spot in the NCAA.”
Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games overall.
The UNDER is 5-1 in Ohio State's last 6 games overall.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 75
Friday's March Madness Quick Hitters
By Evan Altemus
Here are some very brief quick hitters for Friday's NCAA Tournament selections. These facts are just the first thing that comes to mind when looking at these games.
SFA vs. Syracuse - The Orange are coming off of a grueling run in the Big East, and that may have been their season. Will they have the energy or motivation to blowout SFA. However, SFA had lackluster performances against the toughest teams on their schedule, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Arkansas.
Temple vs. ASU - Match-up of two bet-on teams, and it was very disappointing to see these two teams matched up against each other. ASU has shut down defense, but Temple is the real deal. Great match-up of Harden vs. Christmas.
ETSU vs. Pittsburgh - We saw yesterday what a motivated Big East team can do against a smaller conference school with UCONN's rout. Pittsburgh will be hungry for this game because of their loss in the Big East Tournament. I would take the Panthers if I was forced to make a play but it's still to high of a spread to offer a premium selection in.
Arizona vs. Utah - Is Arizona going to finally step up and play to their capability? Utah is a very good team and have a dominating big man, Luke Nevill. We saw BYU get dominated by A&M yesterday though.
Cleveland State vs. Wake Forest - Another disappointing match-up of two bet on teams. Cleveland State is loaded with experience and athletes, while Wake Forest is one of the most disrespected teams in the dance. Butler hung with a very good LSU team yesterday, so the athleticism is there with the Horizon League. However, Wake Forest is the real deal. A teaser might be the best approach to this game.
Wisconsin vs. Florida State - Florida State has athletes and size, as well as the best player on the court with Toney Douglas. However, it's hard to go against Bo Ryan's Wisconsin teams in the tournament. His teams are always well prepared, and the Badgers style of play is very frustrating to go up against. The Seminoles offense really had problems against Duke in the ACC Championship, so will the Badgers be able to have similar success? I was going to release Wisconsin as a premium selection, but I didn't want to go against a team with the best player and better athletes. In addition, Wisconsin and Minnesota were two of the last teams in the tournament, and Minnesota got hammered by Texas last night. However, I would take the points with the Badgers if I was forced to make a play.
NCAA Tourney Research
By Indiancowby
Arizona vs. Utah
As you probably know by now, I believe Arizona should be here. They beat Kansas, Gonzaga and UCLA and lost to Arizona State in the conference tourney. Utah did beat Gonzaga at home by 1, but overall, I'm not impressed with the SOS of Utah. I like Arizona here as this team can beat anyone in the nation as they have the athletes to do so - this team can also lose to anyone in the nation as well.
Cleveland St. vs. Wake Forrest
Cleveland State beat Butler on their court to get here. This team can play. Remember, this team beat Syracuse on the road as well - albeit as a miracle shot - that game was my december gom when this team was catching 13 points. Wake stumbled a bit at one point in the season losing 4 road games. I'm just not wild about Wake as I think the are shaky and I lean on Cleveland State here.
Morehead State vs. Louisville
The public loves Louisville to a tune of 90% after over 17,000 consensus votes and bets from what I've noticed. That itself would keep me away from this game or tempt me to put some change on Morehead State. I wonder if the Refs will help out Morehead State as well given the huge public interest in betting this team - remember, what happened to Memphis yesterday, the Refs put Memphis in foul trouble early and often. These teams actually met in the first game of their respective seasons with Louisville winning by 38. But the rematch always favors the dog as they are less intimidated. I'm not going to play with fire, but for the simple fact these two teams have met before (adv dog) and the fact that 90% are on Louisville, I lean on Morehead State.
Stephen Austin vs. Syracuse
This could be your Memphis vs. CS Northridge from yesterday. The public is hounding this game as well as Louisville (to a tune of 90%). Stephen Austin can play - again, I'm not the one to play with fire, but I have Stephen Austin, a top 100 team in the country losing this game by 10 points - given that and the fact 75% are on Syracuse, this is a decent play in my book today.
Temple vs. Arizona State
Arizona State is ticked they didn't win the Pac-10 Tourney Championship and Temple is coming off a high from winning the Atlantic-10. I can see this either way, but this is a game if Temple starts off strong they can win outright, but I think State is going to come out very focused - but Temple plays great defense. I have this landing on 6 according to my numbers in favor of State, no lean either way ATS though.
Siena vs. Ohio State
Evan Turner is a stud and I hope we can get to see him play longer. But, Ohio State does not give him much help as per scoring. The public is split on this game. Remember, Siena played Pittsburgh on the road and lost by just 13 and played Kansas on the road and lost by just 7. I lean on Siena here given how well they have played together and they have played through some adversity this year and have several players that can step up.
Pitt vs. East Tennessee State
Pitt is probably still angry at their loss to WVU and will play a ETS team who is ranked in the top 130. ETS is the Conference USA Champ - but again, I just don't get involved with #1 vs. #16 seeds. The public of course favors Pitt by 80% in this contest.
Robert Morris vs. Michigan State
Michigan State is still angry from their loss in the Big10 Championship in such an ugly fashion on national television in their last contest. Robert Morris has faced tough competition this year losing by 8 to Miami on the road and losing to Xavier by 21 on the road. Again, I hate these big spread games and the high seed vs. the low seed, I can see it both ways.
USC vs. Boston College
This is going to be a helluva game. USC has a way to surprise such as winning the Pac-10 Championship. I was on them over Arizona State but this is going to be a very tough contest for them. I think BC showed a lot in their tight loss to Duke and I actually lean on BC to win this contest - albeit a small lean.
North Dakota State vs. Kansas
It would be nice to grab the points here with North Dakota State. But I watched the game in its entirety when North Dakota State played Oakland in the Championship and was not impressed with this team at all. Tack on the fact Kansas is furious from their pitiful display against Baylor (the best thing that could have happened to this team coming into the Tourney) - I bet Kansas is going to come out fired up. I can see Kansas covering the large number here.
Portland State vs. Xavier
Believe it nor not, the public loves Portland State here over Xavier. I know Xavier beat Missouri and Memphis this year, but Portland State beat Gonzaga on the road by 7 points - at Gonzaga. That might be one of the biggest regular season upsets out of many this year. That was a HUGE win for Portland State. I actually like the points as well as I'm just not a fan of Xavier and haven't been all year.