NCAAB News and Notes Friday 3/26

South Regional Sweet 16 Picks
By PATRICK GARBIN

No. 10 St. Mary's Gaels vs. No. 3 Baylor Bears (-4.5, 142.5)

The first game of the semifinals in Houston counters two teams in uncharted territory. St. Mary’s is making its first Sweet 16 appearance since 1959 while it’s been 60 years since Baylor reached this round of the NCAA tourney.

Including the West Coast Conference championship, the Gaels have won three straight games as an underdog, covering by an average of nearly 15 points. For the season, St. Mary’s is an impressive 5-2 SU and ATS in an underdog role.

Led by 6-foot-11 center Omar Samhan (21.5 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 2.9 blocks), the Gaels have upset No. 7 Richmond and No. 2 Villanova. The confident center is averaging 30.5 points, shooting 75 percent from the floor and has been almost impossible to stop in the tournament.

St. Mary’s must face one of the better defenses in college basketball. Baylor’s large frontcourt of 6-foot-10 Ekpe Udoh, 6-foor-10 Anthony Jones and 7-footer Josh Lomers should keep Samhan from having his third dominating performance in as many tourney games.

"We were just trying to pound people inside (in the first two rounds) - and we did,” Samhan said. "You can't do that against (Baylor).”

Besides being intimidating inside, the Bears are also extremely athletic, especially their two starting guards – All-Big 12 performers LaceDarius Dunn (19.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Tweety Carter (15.1 ppg, 6.0 apg). Baylor will also have the decided advantage of playing in front of a partial-Bears crowd at the Reliant Center.

St. Mary’s has been a nice, Cinderella story for this tournament but one that’s about to come to an end. Since 1998, a 10th-seed or higher has won just six of 27 games in the Sweet 16 round. I expect the No. 10 Gaels to continue this losing trend.

Final score prediction: Baylor 73, St. Mary’s 67

No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (-8.5, 127.5)

Duke will attempt to defeat a fourth-seed or better for the first time in nine years when it meets Purdue in the South Region’s nightcap Friday. The Boilermakers are trying for their first win over a No. 1 seed in five tries.

Purdue continues to make believers out of those that doubted it could advance in the tournament without injured Robbie Hummel. In Hummel’s absence, guard Chris Kramer has stepped up, averaging 13.5 points (twice his scoring average), 4.5 rebounds and 3.5 steals per game in the tourney.

In Duke’s 15-point win over California Sunday, the Blue Devils made just 3-of-17 3-pointers, including 1-of-8 from star guard Jon Scheyer (18.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.8 apg). For the tournament, the Wooden Award finalist has been held to 10 points per game and is shooting less than 28 percent from the field.

Duke’s big men and bench - not its big three of Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith – have carried the Blue Devils this March. Brian Zoubek, Miles Plumlee and Lance Thomas have scored 47 combined points after averaging less than 16 per game entering the tournament.

“We get the most attention," Singler said of himself, Scheyer and Smith, "but when it comes down to it, Zoobs, Lance and our guys coming off the bench have won games for us.”

The main difference between these two teams is their abilities to crash and control the boards. Duke ranks 14th in the nation in rebounding margin with a plus-6.4 margin (plus-10.0 in the tournament) while Purdue is minus-7.5 in its two tournament games.

The loss of Hummel finally catches up with the Boilermakers as the Blue Devils, in a double-digit victory, reach the Elite Eight for the first time in six years.

Final score prediction: Duke 68, Purdue 54

(6) Tennessee (27-8, 14-16-2 ATS) vs. (2) Ohio State (29-7, 18-18 ATS)

The Volunteers posted a pair of victories in Providence, R.I., last week, barely holding off No. 11 seed San Diego State 62-59 as a three-point favorite in the first round then knocking out upstart and 14th-seeded Ohio 83-68 as a nine-point favorite. Tennessee has won nine of its last 11 overall (5-5-1 ATS), and though both losses were by double digits (74-45 to Kentucky in the SEC tournament and 75-62 at Florida), the nine wins were by an average of 9.8 points per game.

Ohio State rolled through the first two rounds of the Big Dance in Milwaukee, crushing U.C. Santa Barbara 68-51 (falling just short as a 17½-point favorite) and knocking out Georgia Tech 75-66 (barely cashing as a seven-point chalk). The Buckeyes have won nine in a row, 15 of 16 and 18 of 20, with both losses coming by a total of eight points to two teams (West Virginia and Purdue) that are also in the Sweet 16.

These teams met three times in a 51-week stretch in 2007 and 2008. Ohio State won the first two by a total of three points – 68-66 at home in January 2007 and 85-84 in the Sweet 16 of the 2007 Tournament – with Tennessee getting revenge 74-69 at home in January 2008. The underdog cashed in all three games, however.

The Vols are in the Sweet 16 for the third time in the last four years, suffering the narrow loss to Ohio State in 2007 and getting crushed by Louisville 79-60 in 2008. Tennessee has never made it past this round.

Ohio State – which lost in the opening round last year and failed to qualify for the Big Dance in 2008 – is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since reaching the national championship game in 2007. This is just the Buckeyes’ fourth Sweet 16 appearance since 1968, and it went 3-0 SU in the previous three, beating Tennessee in 2007, Auburn in 1999 (72-64) and North Carolina in 1992 (80-73).

Tennessee is now 7-2 at neutral sites this season (4-4-1 ATS), averaging 70.4 ppg while allowing 62.3 ppg. Ohio State is 6-1 at neutral venues (3-4 ATS), outscoring opponents by nearly 10 ppg (77-67.7).

The Volunteers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four as a neutral-site underdog and 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 after a spread-cover, but otherwise they’re on pointspread upticks of 4-0-1 in non-conference play, 4-1-1 versus the Big Ten, 4-1 on Friday and 22-9-1 as an underdog of less than seven points.

Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite of less than seven points and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 versus winning teams, but the Buckeyes also carry negative pointspread stretches of 4-11 in the Tournament, 3-10 as a Tournament favorite, 1-6 when laying less than seven points in the tourney, 1-6 in non-conference play and 2-5 on Friday.

It’s been all “unders” for Tennessee lately, including 21-8-1 overall, 8-3 in non-league play, 6-1-1 at neutral sites, 23-9 as an underdog, 19-7 when catching less than seven points, 4-0 as a neutral-site pup and 3-0-1 on Friday. Conversely, the Buckeyes sport a slew of “over” trends, including 4-1 overall, 7-2 in the Tournament, 6-1 as a tourney favorite, 4-1 at neutral sites and 11-2 as a neutral-site chalk, though the under is 13-6 in Ohio State’s last 19 on Friday.

Finally, when these teams met in the 2007 Big Dance, the 85-84 contest flew over the 144½-point total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE

(9) Northern Iowa (30-4, 22-11 ATS) vs. (5) Michigan State (26-8, 13-20 ATS)

The Panthers pulled off the shocker of the Tournament – and one of the biggest in the history of this event – in upsetting top-ranked Kansas 69-67 as an 11-point underdog in Saturday’s second round in Oklahoma City. Point guard Ali Farokhmanesh, who hit a game-winning 25-foot three-pointer to beat UNLV 69-66 in the first round, drained the decisive three-pointer against Kansas with 34 seconds to play. Northern Iowa led wire-to-wire against the Jayhawks despite getting outshot (44.4 percent to 40 percent) and outrebounded (32-27), but the Panthers were able to force 15 Kansas turnovers.

Northern Iowa has won six in a row, going 5-0 ATS in the last five. And despite yielding 66 points to UNLV and 67 to Kansas, the Missouri Valley Conference champs still have the second-best scoring defense in the country (55 ppg allowed). However, in their four losses, they scored 52, 51, 59 and 54 points.

Michigan State reached the Sweet 16 for the third year in a row, but it wasn’t easy, as it blew large second-half leads against New Mexico State and Maryland but pulled out both games by scores of 70-67 (as a 13-point favorite) and 85-83 (as a one-point underdog), respectively, in Spokane, Wash. In Sunday’s win over Maryland, the Spartans trailed 83-82 in the waning moments when reserve point guard Korie Lucious – in the game because starter Kalin Lucas suffered a first-half injury – drained a three-pointer at the buzzer to steal the win.

Since suffering a three-game losing streak in the middle of the Big Ten season, Michigan State has won seven of its last nine, going just 5-4 ATS during this stretch. On the downside for the Spartans, Lucas – who leads the team in scoring, assists and minutes played – suffered a ruptured Achilles in the win over Maryland is out for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, shooting guard Chris Allen, who missed much of Sunday’s game with a foot injury, is listed as probable.

This is unchartered territory for Northern Iowa, which was dealt a five-point first-round loss by Purdue last year and had just one Tournament victory (back in 1990) in five all-time appearances before last week. This is the first time a team from the Missouri Valley Conference has reached the Sweet 16 since 1979.

The Spartans edged Kansas 67-62 in the Sweet 16 last year en route to the national championship game. Prior to that, they hadn’t advanced to the Elite Eight since 2005. Still, going back to 1999, Tom Izzo’s squad is 6-0 SU in this round of the Tournament.

Northern Iowa is now 7-1 (6-2 ATS) at neutral venues this season, averaging 65.5 ppg and yielding 57.8 ppg. Michigan State has still only played five neutral-site contests (including the last three in a row), going 3-2 (2-3 ATS) while pouring in 80.4 ppg and surrendering 73.4 ppg.

In addition to cashing in five straight games overall, the Panthers are on pointspread surges of 38-17 overall, 7-0 in non-conference play, 9-2 versus the Big Ten, 54-24 as an underdog, 35-16 as a pup of less than seven points, 6-0 at neutral sites, 5-0 as a neutral-site underdog.

Michigan State is on ATS upticks of 3-1-1 against the Missouri Valley Conference, 21-6-2 as a favorite of less than seven points, 6-2 in the Tournament, 16-4-1 as a Tournament favorite and 4-0 when favored by less than seven in the Big Dance. Conversely, the Spartans are in ATS slumps of 1-4 in non-conference play, 1-4 as a chalk overall, 2-8 against winning teams and 0-5 on Friday.

Northern Iowa has topped the total in four of its last five non-conference games, and both of its games last weekend flew over the posted price. Still, the Panthers are riding “under” streaks of 21-8 overall, 4-1 versus the Big Ten, 37-16-1 as an underdog, 20-7 at neutral venues, 11-1 as a neutral-site pup and 9-3 on Friday. Meanwhile, the Spartans have stayed low in four straight against the Missouri Valley and four of five on Friday, but they’re also on “over” stretches of 5-1 at neutral sites, 5-2 as a favorite and 4-1 after a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

(10) St. Mary’s (28-5, 21-10 ATS) vs. (3) Baylor (27-7, 17-10 ATS)

St. Mary’s was one of three double-digit seeds to advance past the first weekend of the Big Dance, and the Gaels did so rather easily. Playing in Providence, they defeated seventh-seeded Richmond 80-71 as a one-point underdog and shocked No. 2-seed Villanova 75-68 as a four-point pup. St. Mary’s, whose only previous Big Dance win came 51 years ago, outshot Richmond and Villanova by a combined 49.5 percent to 41 percent, and big man Omar Samhan was the difference-maker, tallying a total of 61 points and 19 rebounds in 60 minutes of action.

The Bears, who hadn’t won a Tournament game since 1950 and were making just their third Big Dance appearance since then, survived tough tests in New Orleans against a pair of double-digit seeds to earn this trip to nearby Houston. First, they got past Sam Houston State 68-59 (failing to cover as a 9½-point favorite), then eliminated Old Dominion 76-68 as a four-point chalk. Both games were tight in the final five minutes before Baylor pulled away down the stretch. Defense proved to be the difference, as the Bears held Sam Houston State and Old Dominion to a combined 46-for-121 from the field (38 percent).

The Gaels, who won the West Coast Conference tournament to secure their automatic bid, have won seven in a row (6-1 ATS). Meanwhile, Baylor is on a 10-2 SU run, going 4-2 ATS in the last six following a 1-5 ATS downturn.

St. Mary’s first appearance in the Big Dance came in 1959 and it won its first game, then suffered five straight Tournament defeats prior to last weekend’s 2-0 sweep. Meanwhile, the last time Baylor won consecutive games in the Big Dance was in 1948, and it has never gone farther in this event.

The Gaels’ spread-covers last weekend ended a 1-8 ATS slump as a neutral-site underdog. They come into tonight on pointspread runs of 4-0 overall, 21-5-1 in non-conference play, 5-0 at neutral sites, 5-2 as an underdog, 5-2 as a pup of six points or less and 4-1 on Friday.

The Bears sport ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 7-1 in non-conference action, 5-1 as a favorite, 5-0 when laying less than seven points, 19-7 at neutral sites, 4-1 as a favorite at neutral venues and 7-3 on Friday.

The under is 9-3 in the Gaels’ last 12 overall, 8-2 in their last 10 after a victory and 5-1 in their last six as a ‘dog at neutral sites, but St. Mary’s is also on “over” runs of 19-7 in non-conference action, 10-4-1 as a pup of less than seven points and 4-0-1 on Friday. Meanwhile, Baylor has stayed low in five of seven in non-league play, but otherwise is on “over” surges of 5-1 overall (1-1 in the Tournament), 14-2 after a SU win, 11-1 after a spread-cover, 4-0 as a favorite of less than seven points and 6-0 on Friday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

(4) Purdue (29-5, 14-18-2 ATS) vs. (1) Duke (31-5, 20-13-2 ATS)

The Boilermakers needed a huge second-half rally to get past 13th-seeded Siena in round one last week (72-64 as a 4½-point favorite), then required overtime against Texas A&M on Sunday, winning 63-61 as a two-point pup. With the two wins in Spokane, Wash., Purdue erased the nightmare of their 27-point Big Ten tournament semifinal loss to Minnesota. Also, in cashing against both Siena and Texas A&M, the Boilers snapped an 0-6-1 ATS drought. Going back to mid-January, Purdue is 15-2 SU but just 7-9-1 ATS.

Duke toyed with its two first-round opponents in Jacksonville, Fla., hammering play-in-game winner Arkansas-Pine Bluff (73-44 as a 24-point favorite) and crushing eighth-seeded California (68-53 as a 6½-point favorite). The Blue Devils have won six in a row and 14 of their last 15, and of their five losses this season, four have come against teams that reached the Tournament (Maryland, Georgetown, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin).

These teams have met twice in the last six seasons, with the road team taking both contests. Purdue rolled 78-68 as a nine-point road underdog in 2003, while the Blue Devils cruised 76-60 as a two-point pup in December 2008.

This is the Boilermakers’ second straight trip to the Sweet 16, as last year it bowed out to eventual Final Four participant UConn, losing 72-60 as a seven-point underdog. That followed three straight second-round exits in 2003, 2007 and 2008. The last time Purdue made it through to the Elite Eight was in 2000 – the only time it has done so since 1994.

Duke has made 34 Tournament appearances in school history, including 14 in a row, and it is a No. 1 seed for the 11th time overall and the sixth time this decade. However, last year the Blue Devils got blasted by Villanova 77-54 in the Sweet 16, their third consecutive SU and ATS loss in this round. The last time Duke reached the Elite Eight was in 2004 (also its last Final Four appearance).

Purdue is 7-1 (3-3-2 ATS) in neutral-site action (the only blemish being the ugly loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament). In the seven wins, the Boilermakers averaged 72.1 ppg and given up 61.4 ppg. Meanwhile, Duke has won all nine of its neutral-site contests this season (6-3 ATS), outscoring opponents by 15.3 ppg (70.4-55.1).

The Boilermakers’ pointspread numbers are all over the map, as they’re on positive ATS runs of 4-1 as an underdog, 8-3 as a ‘dog at neutral venues, 7-3 when catching points in the Tournament and 4-1-1 on Friday. However, they’re also in ATS ruts of 2-6-1 overall, 2-5 versus the ACC, 1-5-1 after a SU victory, 6-13-1 after a spread-cover and 7-16-1 as an underdog of seven to 12½ points.

Duke has cashed in five of seven versus the Big Ten and six of eight on Friday, but prior to last weekend’s easy spread-covers against Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Cal, the Devils had failed to cover in 10 of 12 Tournament games overall and 11 of 13 Tournament contests as a favorite.

Purdue has gone over the total in eight straight Friday contests and six of eight outside the Big Ten, while the Blue Devils have hurdled the total in five of seven against the Big Ten. After that, though, the Boilermakers are on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 6-0 versus the ACC, 5-1 after a SU win and 5-2 as an underdog, while Duke carries “under” trends of 5-1 overall (all as a favorite), 18-6 at neutral sites (all as a favorite), 8-3 in the Tournament, 12-4 when laying points in the Big Dance, 4-1 on Friday and 26-12 after a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Friday's NCAA games

Northern Iowa-Michigan State is just second game between 5-9 seeds in history of this round (BC upset Indiana in '94); Spartans are without PG Lucas; they're 7-2 in last nine games, but were -12 (18-6) in turnovers vs Maryland, needed to make 10-18 from arc to pull out 85-83 win. UNI is Kurt Warner's alma mater, playing in Rams' dome. #5 seeds are 7-3 vs spread in last 10 in this round, but they were underdog in all 10 games. UNI beat Iowa by 17, in its only game this year vs Big 11 opponent.

Tennessee had 17-point lead on Ohio State in this round of '07 tourney, but lost 85-84 (+4), when Buckeyes were #1 seed, Vols #5. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in games involving 2-6 seeds in this round since 2001. Buckeyes won last nine games, but best team they've beaten outside the Big 11 is still either Cal/Florida State (not that impressive). Vols are 9-2 in last 11 games; they're 2-4 vs spread in last six games as an underdog. Tennessee lost 73-72 to Purdue in only game vs Big 11 foe this season.

St Mary's won last seven games, and was underdog in last three; Gaels are 14-2 outside WCC, losing to USC by 11 in Hawai'i, to Vandy by 2 at home- they held Villanova to 36% from floor in win six days ago. Baylor will have crowd edge in Houston; Bears are 10-2 in last 12 games, 4-1 vs spread in last five as a favorite. St Mary's is most diverse offensive club Baylor has faced since Kansas. #10 seeds are 4-10 in this round since '97, with underdog 9-5 against the spread in those games.

Duke won six in row, 14 of last 15 games; they beat Cal by 15 despite shooting 3-15 from arc. Purdue beat Siena (CJackson didn't play) in first round, Texas A&M in OT in second (Roland broke leg during season); as far as we know, Duke is at full strength. Duke lost 73-69 at Wisconsin in December, its only game vs Big 11 foe; last time Blue Devils beat team seeded higher than 5th was way back in 2001, long time ago. After last night's results, #1 seeds are 7-3 vs spread in last 10 games in this round.

South Region Semifinals
By Judd Hall

Houston’s Reliant Stadium is where the Sweet Sixteen will wrap up for this year’s NCAA Tournament. There should plenty of green and gold in the stands for the opening games when No. 3 Baylor takes on the 10th-seeded Gaels. The festivities will close out when the top-seeded Blue Devils take on No. 4 Purdue.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants initially opened this contest up with the Bears as four-point favorites with a total of 145 that tips off on CBS at 7:30 p.m. EDT. Bettors wanting to play on St. Mary’s (28-5 straight up, 21-10 against the spread) for the outright win will get a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).

As of Thursday afternoon, Baylor has been bumped up to a 4 ½-point “chalk” with a total moved down to 142.

The Gaels were on the bubble before guaranteeing their berth in the Big Dance with a win over Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Tournament title game. All St. Mary’s has done since then is control both of its NCAA Tournament games.

Randy Bennett’s crew had very few issues moving past the Spiders in an 80-71 win as a 1 ½-point underdog in the first round. That was St. Mary’s first win in this tourney since they dropped Idaho State back in 1959.

The Gaels handed No. 2 Villanova its walking papers in a 75-68 decision as 4 ½-point underdogs last Saturday in Providence, Rhode Island. Don’t let that final score fool you into thinking this was a close contest as St. Mary’s was rarely in danger of falling to the Wildcats. Mickey McConnell made a clutch three-pointer, followed by a pair of free throws to push a 68-65 lead to 70-65 in the final minute.

Omar Samhan was the Wildcats’ worst nightmare in that contest as he hit 13-of-16 from the field en route to 32 points and seven rebounds. He is the top scorer in the NCAA Tournament with 30.5 points per game so far and is grabbing 9.5 rebounds per game.

While the Gaels are running smoothly into regional semifinals, Baylor (27-7 SU, 17-10 ATS) has had some issues getting up during its Sweet Sixteen run. The Bears found themselves tied at 28-28 with 90 seconds left in the first half. Yet Scott Drew’s club win its first tourney game since Harry Truman was President of the United States with a 68-59 win over the Bearkats as a 10-pointo favorite in New Orleans.

The Bears had an even tougher time against Old Dominion last Saturday in a 76-68 win as 4 ½-point faves. The Monarchs were tied at 58-58 with just under six minutes remaining in regulation. But Josh Lomers scored 12 of his 14 points in the second half, seven of which came when the game was deadlocked to push Baylor into its first ever regional semifinals appearance.

Baylor has been a relatively safe wager this year as a single-digit favorite as they’ve gone 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS in this spot. The ‘over’ went 9-4 as well.

The Gaels have been great pups this season for gamblers to back, evidenced by a 5-2 SU and ATS mark. Of course that also includes the 3-0 SU and ATS run they are currently on since their league tourney and the Big Dance.

Drew’s Bears have watched the ‘over’ go 18-9 this season, which was bolstered 7-3 run in their last 10 tests. St. Mary’s has been an ‘under’ machine as they’ve cashed in at a 9-3 clip in its past 12 contests.

What could prove to be the pièce de résistance for Baylor is the fact that they are playing in this fixture just four hours away from its campus in Waco, Texas. There have been nine instances where programs played in their home state for a regional semifinal since 2000. Those teams playing in-state have gone 7-2 SU and 5-3-1 ATS with the ‘over’ going 6-3.

Roughly thirty minutes after the Bears and Gaels settle their differences, it’ll be time for Duke and the Boilermakers to fight it out for the final spot in the Elite Eight. LVSC opened the Blue Devils as seven-point favorites with a total of 129. As of Thursday afternoon, most betting outlets had installed the Dukies as 8 ½-point faves with a total hovering around 127.

Purdue (29-5 SU, 14-17-2 ATS) comes into this game essentially playing the house’s money. The Boilers lost Robbie Hummel for the rest of the season in late February after tearing the ACL in his right knee. But somehow Matt Painter has guided his team to wins over Sienna (72-64) in the opener and against Texas A&M (63-61) in the second round.

In the win over A&M, the Boilermakers had to overcome an 11-point deficit to win this game in overtime as two-point pups. Chris Kramer put Purdue on his back by scoring 17 points and seven rebounds to pull off the surprising win. 13 of those points for Kramer came in the second half and overtime period against one of the teams that were playing the best basketball at just the right time.

Duke (31-5 SU, 20-13-2 ATS) enters the Sweet Sixteen for second straight year on the strength of a 73-44 deconstruction of the 16th-seeded Golden Lions as 24 ½-point favorite and a 68-53 win over the No. 8 Golden Bears in Jacksonville, Florida last Sunday.

These two schools have met up twice in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge over the year. Purdue won 78-68 in the 2003 meeting as a nine-point road pup. The Blue Devils returned the favor in West Lafayette in a 76-60 triumph as two-point road underdogs in 2008.

The Blue Devils have shown themselves to be decent in games as single-digit faves, evidenced by a 9-4 SU and 6-6-1 ATS mark this season. Purdue, however, has been automatic this year as an underdog with a 3-0 SU and ATS record.

What could hurt bettors taking the Boilermakers is that they are 1-3 SU and 2-2 in their last four tilts against ACC clubs. The ‘under’ did go 4-0 in those tilts. Meanwhile, Duke is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in its past 9 matches against Big Ten squads with the ‘over’ going 5-4.

vegasinsider.com

Midwest Region Semifinals
By Judd Hall

The Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, Missouri is the locale for the Midwest Region semifinals on Friday night. Things get kicked off with Ohio State taking on Tennessee in a rematch of the 2007 South semis. After that game goes final, Northern Iowa will look to shove its foot back into the glass slipper when they face Michigan State in the nightcap.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants initially opened the Buckeyes up as 4 ½-point favorites with a total of 135. Most betting shops have adhered to that same spread, but the total has shrunk slightly to 134. For those bettors wanting to back Tennessee (27-8 straight up, 13-16-1 against the spread), they’ll get a plus-175 return (risk $100 to $175) on the outright win.

Ohio State (29-7 SU, 17-14 ATS) comes into its second Sweet Sixteen berth in four years after dumping the 15th-seeded Gauchos in the first round and sending the 10th-seeded Yellow Jackets packing.

The Bucks failed to cover as 17 ½-point faves in their 68-51 win over Cal-Santa Barbara, but were never in danger of falling in this tilt. Evan Turner was tossing up cinder blocks in that opener with nine points on 2-of-13 shooting from the field. John Diebler was there to pick up the slack with 23 points as he went 7-of-12 from beyond the arc.

OSU needs Turner and Diebler to put up strong numbers every time out because things get pretty thin for the team outside of the starting five. To give you an idea of how little depth Thad Matta’s squad has, just consider the playing time against Georgia Tech. Turner, Diebler and William Buford all played 40 minutes. Dallas Lauderdale put in 31 minutes of work, while David Lighty was on the floor for 36 minutes. In the first two rounds of this tourney, Ohio State’s starters played in 312 of a possible 320 minutes of action.

The Volunteers reached the regional semifinals after surviving a scare against 11th-seed San Diego State, then pushing 14th-seed Ohio back to a curb somewhere in Athens. Bruce Pearl’s crew is playing strong at just the right time, going 7-1 SU and 4-3-1 ATS in its last eight contests.

Tennessee came awfully close to not even being in this spot after holding onto a 62-59 over the Aztecs. Wayne Chism made two clutch free throws in the final eight seconds of the game to create the final margin of victory; he wound up with nine points altogether against SDSU. J.P. Prince paced the Vols with 15 points and six boards in the victory.

The Vols didn’t have any issues in running away late against Ohio in an 83-68 triumph as 8 ½-point faves last Saturday. Prince came up big once again with 18 point and four rebounds against the Bobcats.

Tennessee has been listed as an underdog nine times this season, going 4-5 SU and 4-4-1 ATS. In the last six spots, they are 2-4 SU and ATS.

Ohio State is 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS when tabbed as a single-digit “chalk” this year. The ‘over’ has gone 7-4 in those spots as well.

These two teams met in the 2007 South Region semifinals with OSU as a 4 ½-point favorite. Yet the Bucks looked nothing like a team worthy of making a run to the championship game after going down 20 points. Ohio State found a way to fight back and win 85-85 on the strength of a Greg Oden block with 0.2 seconds left.

The Vols did exact some revenge the following season with a 74-69 win in Knoxville, but Ohio State covered as a 11 ½-point road pup.

All told, the Buckeyes are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in their last three showdowns with UT. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in those contests as well.

You’ll see this game tip-off on CBS at 7:10 p.m. EDT.

About 30 minutes after the first game goes final, Northern Iowa (30-4 SU, 22-10-1 ATS) will look to continue its Cinderella run against the Spartans.

There is no discounting how good the Panthers are after looking at their road to the Sweet Sixteen. They opened up with a white-knuckle 69-66 win over UNLV in the first round as one-point favorites. This game appeared to be heading to an extra session with a 66-66 score until Ali Farokhmanesh drilled a three-point jumper with 4.2 seconds left.

Farokhmanesh wasn’t satisfied by showing he had the stones to drop the Rebs. Oh no, he was going to cement his flair for the clutch shot against No. 1 overall seed Kansas. UNI held a comfortable lead for much of the game…that was until the Jayhawks pulled within one at 63-62. The Panthers’ senior guard nailed a three-pointer with 35 seconds on the clock to essentially put the game out of reach. KU made a bucket late, but the UNI walked away with a 69-67 upset as an 11 ½-point underdog. And those gamblers that had the guts to take Ben Jacobson’s club to win outright were rewarded with a plus-700 return (risk $100 to win $700).

Farokhmanesh led Northern Iowa scorers with 16 points, while Jordan Eglseder popped in 14 points with five boards.

Michigan State (26-8 SU, 13-20 ATS) has had to work for this spot in the regional semifinals. The Spartans survived a thriller against 12th-seed New Mexico State 70-67, but failed to cover as 13-point faves. And it didn’t get any easier against for MSU against the No. 4 Terrapins as they won 85-83 as a 1 ½-point pup on Korie Lucious’ three-pointer at the buzzer.

The Spartans’ win over Maryland could be considered one of Tom Izzo’s finer coaching effort considering they were without Kalin Lucas for the final 22 minutes of the game. At first it didn’t look like Lucas’ absence would matter as Michigan State pulled out to a 16-point lead in the second half. But the Terps weren’t going away quietly with Greivis Vasquez scoring 10 points in the final two-minutes of the game. Luckily for the kids from East Lansing that Lucious was able to hit his game-winner from the top of the key.

We’re going to get see if Izzo can paint another masterpiece this weekend as Lucas is out for the tournament with a ruptured left Achilles’ tendon. That means Lucious will be getting the lion’s share of playing time in his absence. While the sophomore can make a clutch shot, his ball-handling and leadership skills are nowhere near what we’ve seen with Lucas over the past three years.

The Spartans have been nothing more than a coin flip this season as single-digit faves, evidenced by a 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. In the last five instances under this situation, Michigan State has gone 1-4 SU and ATS. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five matches.

Northern Iowa have posted a great 6-1 SU and ATS record when listed as an underdog this season with the ‘under’ going 5-1.

The Panthers also have a pristine 4-0 SU and ATS mark when facing teams from the power conference this season. The ’under’ was 2-1 in those games.

UNI has seen the ‘under’ go 17-6 for the entire season, but the ‘over’ has hit in three straight games.

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Tips and Trends

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Ohio St. Buckeyes

Volunteers: Tennessee is resilient, as it appears that absolutely nothing can stop the Volunteers from ending their season. Tennessee has overcome scandals and suspensions to 4 different players to be back in the Sweet 16 for the 3rd time in the past 4 seasons. This is the 6th time in school history that Tennessee has made it this far, yet they've never advanced to the Elite Eight. The Volunteers are 27-8 SU and 14-16-2 ATS overall this season. The Volunteers have shown how diverse they are in their 1st 2 tournament games. They played a slow defensive game against San Diego St. before exploding offensively against Ohio. Tennessee is 12-7 SU and 8-9-2 ATS on the road this season, including 7-2 SU in neutral court settings. The Volunteers are 4-4 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Tennessee has also flashed their potential with 2 wins over #1 ranked teams in the country in both Kansas and Kentucky. Tennessee has held 5 of their past 6 opponents under 70 PTS. Offensively, the Volunteers average 73 PPG, and are led by G Scotty Hopson. Hopson averages a team high 12.5 PPG, and is one of 2 Volunteers averaging double figures in PTS this season.

Tennessee is 4-0-1 ATS last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 8-3 last 11 non-conference games.

Key Injuries - F Emmanuel Negedu (heart) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 68

Buckeyes (-4.5, O/U 134): Ohio St. is surging at exactly the right time, as they've won 9 consecutive games SU. Ohio St. is a very balanced team that simply finds different ways to win games this season. The Buckeyes are 29-7 SU and 18-18 ATS overall this season. Ohio St. finished the season ranked in the Top 5 in most national polls, and as champions of the Big 10 Conference. The Buckeyes were 17-4 SU in conference play this season. The Buckeyes were 12-6 SU and 8-10 ATS away from home this season, including 6-1 SU in neutral court contests. The Buckeyes are 9-3 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Ohio St. has played their best games this season against their best competition. The Buckeyes are 9-3 ATS against teams with a winning record 15 games into the regular season. G Evan Turner is arguably the most indispensable player in the nation, as he averages 20 PPG, 9 RPG, and 6 APG for the Buckeyes this season. The Big 10 Player of the Year is the odds on favorite to win National Player of the Year and add to his trophy collection. The Buckeyes are averaging more than 80 PPG over their past 4 games.

Buckeyes are 3-10 ATS last 13 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Over is 11-2 last 13 neutral site games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 73 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Purdue Boilermakers at Duke Blue Devils

Boilermakers: Purdue is looking to make it to the Elite Eight for the 1st time in a decade. Beating Duke won't be easy though, as Duke has the height advantage in all 5 starting positions. As a team, Purdue has the bulldog mentality of their head coach Matt Painter. That bulldog mentality served Purdue well the moment star F Robbie Hummel went down with a knee injury. Hummel had been arguably the Boilermakers most important player, but the players have moved on in his absence. Despite struggling to score on offense, Purdue beat Sienna and Texas AM both SU and ATS in reaching the Sweet 16. The Boilermakers are 29-5 SU and 14-18-2 ATS overall this season. Purdue is 15-3 SU and 7-9-2 ATS on the road this season. The Boilermakers are a perfect 3-0 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this season. Today represents the largest spread that Purdue has faced as an underdog this season. Purdue is also 9-5 ATS in non-conference games this season. G E'Twaun Moore and C JaJuan Johnson lead Purdue in scoring, combining for nearly 32 PPG this season. These two will have to score in waves for Purdue to be successful, as no other player averages more than 6 PPG this sesaon for the Boilermakers.

Purdue is 7-3 ATS last 10 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
Under is 6-0 last 6 vs. Atlantic Coast.

Key Injuries - F Robbie Hummel (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 51

Blue Devils (-8.5, O/U 127): Duke is a very trendy pick to win the NCAA Tournament, regardless of whether or not you love them or hate them. There is no middle ground when polling opinions of the ever popular Blue Devils. All joking aside, this is a team hitting its stride as they've won 14 of their past 15 games SU. Duke is actually considered underrated this season, as some experts were questioning the fact they received a #1 seed into the tournament. The Blue Devils have responded by allowing only 97 PTS combined thru 2 rounds, and winning by a combined margin of 44 PTS. Duke is 31-5 SU and 20-13-2 ATS overall this season. The biggest reason for their success both SU and ATS this season is their defense. The Blue Devils have held 19 of their 36 game opponents under 60 PTS this season. Duke is 14-5 SU and 9-9-1 ATS on the road this season, including a perfect 9-0 SU in neutral court games. Duke is 20-14 ATS as the listed favorite this season, including 7-6-1 ATS as a single digit favorite. 3 different Blue Devils average more than 17 PPG this season, led by G Jon Scheyer. Scheyer averages team highs of 18.1 PPG and 4.9 APG this season.

Duke is 4-11 ATS last 15 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Under is 8-3 last 11 NCAA Tournament games.

Key Injuries - F Kyle Singler (face) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 67 (Side of the Day)