Friday’s Best NCAAB Bet
Pennsylvania Quakers at Harvard Crimson (-10.5)
There’s no denying Harvard is one of the top teams in the Ivy League this year. But the Crimson aren’t that great as a large favorite.
When listed as double-digit chalk this season, Harvard is a less-than-impressive 3-4 ATS, including late home rallies against Yale and Dartmouth just to pull out the wins. And the Quakers love being big underdogs.
Penn is a staggering 3-1 ATS this season when getting more than 10 points and actually trailed Kentucky by just a point at halftime in a game at Rupp Arena earlier this season. The Quakers may be just 4-9 SU on the road, but the squad is a very solid 7-5 ATS in lined games away from Philadelphia this season.
"We always talk about some days the ball is going in the basket, and some days it's not," said Penn coach Jerome Allen floor. "But if you're consistent in your defensive effort, you always give yourself a chance to win."
In the teams’ earlier meeting, Harvard left the Palestra with a one-point overtime win. But the officiating in that game was so poor that league officials were forced to comment on it the following day.
Plus, it’s not like the Crimson are in rare form. Harvard is coming off a disappointing 70-69 loss at Yale that saw the team favored by six points. Overall, the Crimson are just 2-4 ATS in their past six as favorites.
Pick: Penn
Northern Iowa battles Creighton
By: Willie Bee
The Northern Iowa Panthers were among the big stories in the 2010 NCAA Tournament that was dominated by solid runs by mid-majors. Ben Jacobson's squad danced its way into the Sweet 16 as a No. 9 seed, grabbing an opening round win over UNLV and then pulling the upset of the tournament by downing Kansas, the top seed in the Midwest Region.
Northern Iowa's run ended after shocking the Jayhawks, a 59-52 loss to Michigan State at the regional in St. Louis sending the Panthers home. Ironically, St. Louis is where they find themselves once more, this time needing three consecutive wins at the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament if an invite to the dance will be extended this time around.
Up first for the conference's No. 4 seed is a match with the No. 5 Creighton Bluejays on Friday. Tip-off from the Gateway City's Scottrade Center is 12:35 p.m. (PT).
The MVC tourney gets underway on Thursday with the teams that finished 7th-10th in the regular season playing in for Friday's round. Those winners will take on the top two seeds in the conference, Missouri State and Wichita state respectively.
It will have been almost a week since the two teams were last on a basketball court for game action, coincidentally against one another. The Panthers would not only like to forget that game, they'd like to forget the last month of their season.
Creighton (18-13 straight up, 16-13 against the spread) scored a 63-55 win this past Saturday over UNI as six-point home chalk in Omaha. The biggest statistical advantage the Bluejays had was hitting 8-of-14 from long range as opposed to the Panthers making 4-of-12. Had Creighton not stunk it up from the charity stripe missing 11 of 20 freebies, it would've been a laugher.
The Bluejays also outshot the Panthers from the field when the two met in Cedar Falls back in late January. Northern Iowa (19-12 SU, 11-16 ATS) still scored the 71-66 win thanks to 18 Creighton turnovers. The Bluejays did cover as seven-point road 'dogs.
January's contest was an easy 'over' with the line at 119 and the hook. Last Saturday's meeting was an easy 'under' 127½.
Jacobson's kids really hit the wall a month ago which was at the same time UNI lost senior forward Lucas O'Rear. His 6.6 PPG, fifth on the team, aren't missed as much as his team-best 5.4 boards and nearly 25 minutes per night taking abuse on the inside. Since O'Rear left the lineup following his ankle injury in the Feb. 2 home win over Illinois State, the Panthers are 1-6 on the scoreboard and at the window.
The Bluejays also didn't close the campaign playing their best basketball, the win over UNI bringing them to 4-4 SU and ATS for February.
Awaiting this winner should be the Missouri State Bears who captured the MVC regular season title. That's assuming the Bears get past the Southern Illinois, Illinois State winner from their play-in game Thursday night at the same venue. Missouri State will battle either the Salukis or Redbirds just before Creighton and Northern Iowa tip their Friday afternoon match.
Missouri State swept the regular season series from Creighton but failed to cover the win at home, a 67-66 triumph as 10½-point chalk. The Bears and Panthers split their two regular season meetings, each winning and covering on the other's floor.
Tips and Trends
Akron Zips vs. Kent St. Golden Flashes
ZIPS: Akron had won their previous 7 games before getting blown out in their season finale at Ohio. That stated winning streak propelled this team from a .500 club to a dangerous MAC tourney team. The Zips are 19-11 SU and 14-12-1 ATS overall this season. Akron is 4-8 SU and 6-5 ATS on the road this year. The Zips are 4-4 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including 2-0 ATS as a road underdog between 3.5 and 6 PTS. F Nikola Cvetinovic is averaging Akron highs of 12.4 PPG and 7 RPG this year. The Zips are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning SU record. Akron is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the MAC. The Zips are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Akron is 34-14-5 ATS in their last 53 games following a SU loss. The Zips are 42-19-4 ATS in their last 65 games following an ATS loss. Akron is 27-13 ATS in their last 40 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Zips are 7-1 ATS last 8 games overall.
Over is 9-4 last 13 games following a SU loss.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 63
GOLDEN FLASHES: (-3.5, O/U 138) Kent St. has already lost this season to Akron, so they believe more than ever that revenge is in order. The Golden Flashes are 20-10 SU and 14-13-1 ATS overall this season. Kent St. is an impressive 13-2 SU and 6-6 ATS at home this year. The Golden Flashes are 9-8 ATS as the listed favorite this season. Kent St. has been brilliant against conference opponents this season, going 10-5 ATS. F Justin Greene does it all for the Golden Flashes, as he leads the team with 15.5 PPG and 8.3 RPG. G Michael Porrini is averaging 9.6 PPG and a team high 4.2 APG this year. The Golden Flashes are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 Friday games. Kent St. is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Golden Flashes are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Kent St. is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.
Golden Flashes are 5-2 ATS last 7 home games against a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games overall.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 74 (SIDE of the Day)
College Basketball Knowledge
Colonial Tournament (Richmond)
Home side won both Georgia State-NC-Wilmington games; Panthers got 63-58 OT win Feb 2 (led by 13 at half) after losing first meeting 59-56. State fired its coach already- they lost last four games, scoring 52.8 ppg. Seahawks are 1-3 in this event last four years, after 20-6 run from 1997-2006. NC-Wilmington lost four of its last six games overall.
Towson State is 0-18 in CAA this year, 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games. Drexel struggled to beat Tigers twice this year, 65-59 at home on Feb 2, then 66-63 on road six days ago; Towson shot under 39% in both games, but did make 13-25 from arc. Dragons are 7-2 in last nine games overall, but covered just two of their last seven as a CAA favorite.
Delaware beat Northeastern twice this year, 54-52 at home Jan 19, then 72-66 on road Feb 15; Hens were 37-47 on foul line in two games, while Huskies were 19-27. Delaware lost seven of its last nine games; they're 1-4 in this event last four years, losing by 10-23-13-17 points. Huskies are 7-4 in last 11 games, after starting out 0-8 in conference play.
James Madison (-6) won 84-79 at Wm&Mary Jan 8, then got upset at home by Tribe 73-67 Feb 2, as 14-point favorite- W&M shot over 50% from floor in both games. Dukes are 5-6 as CAA favorite- they're 2-7 in this event last seven years, splitting pair of games with Tribe. W&M is 3-9 in last 12 games, but they covered four of their last five.
Missouri Valley Tournament (St Louis)
Missouri State won last six games, covering three of last four; they beat Southern Illinois twice this season, winning by 13-18 points. Salukis lost nine of last eleven games; they had only two guys play 30+ minutes in last night's 57-54 win, as four subs played 13+ minutes. Since '97, Bears are 17-13 in this event, but with no tourney wins. Is this the year?
Creighton is 7-3 vs spread as MVC favorite; Bluejay coach McDermott used to coach Northern Iowa; home teams won both series meetings this year. UNI lost six of last seven games after glue guy O'Rear broke ankle; Panthers won this tournament last two years. Creightom won this event four of last nine years- they're 9-3 in first tourney game last 12 years.
Wichita State waxed Bradley twice this season, by 16-20 points; they're 3-3 in last six games, with all three losses by 5 or less points. Shockers are 12-5 vs spread as MVC favorite. Braves are 6-3 in last nine games after starting Valley play 0-11; they're 5-1 in last six games as underdog. Wichita hasn't won this event in last 14 years, losing in final LY.
Since '97, Evansville is 4-14 in MVC tourney, 1-6 since '05, Aces lost four of last five games overall, with three of four losses by 14+ points. Indiana State won five of last six games, covering three of last four when favored, but Sycamores lost twice to Evansville this year, 64-59 on road, 66-63 at home (led by 12 at half). Aces are 5-7-1 as an MVC dog.
Horizon Tournament (Milwaukee)
Cleveland State beat Wright State twice this year, 65-46 at home, 74-72 in Dayton; Raiders lost rematch despite shooting 51% from floor, 10-20 from arc. Vikings covered just one of last seven as favorite- they're 4-3 in this event last three years, after being 1-10 from '98-'07. Wright lost four of last six games- they're 5-1-1 in last seven games as underdog.
Valparaiso beat Detroit twice this year, 78-68 on road Jan 16, 82-74 at home Feb 10, shooting 50%+ in both games; Crusaders had +16 turnover ratio vs Detroit- Titans were just 7-23 from arc. Valpo lost three of last four games away from home. Detroit is 2-6-1 vs spread in last nine as an underdog- their last four losses were all by 8+ points.
MAAC tournament (Bridgeport, CT- Fairfield)Niagara/Marist traded home wins this season; Red Foxes won 80-72 at home Dec 3, then lost 77-60 at Niagara Feb 6, with Eagles making 13-25 from arc. Marist lost last 13 MAAC games, but covered four of last five overall; they're 4-7 in this event since '03, splitting pair vs Purple Eagles. Niagara is 14-7 in this event since 2002, 3-3 the last three years.
Siena is 0-11 vs spread as MAAC favorite this year- they've won this tourney last three years- they're 17-4 in MAAC tourney since '03, but its usually played on their home court (not this year). Teams split series this year, with home side winning both. Manhattan is 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten games, but they've lost nine of last 12 games SU.
OVC Semi-Finals (Nashville)
Tennessee Tech won its last six games and 10 of last 12- they're 7-3 vs spread as OVC underdog, but got swept by Murray State this season-- 92-85 at home Jan 15, 55-44 in Murray Feb 10. Racers won 11 of their last 12 games- they're 11-4 in this event since 2003, but last two times they won OVC title, they got beat in first game next year (won in '10).
Morehead State is 5-1 in this event last two years because they've got Faried, best player in OVC; Eagles won nine of last ten games, with only loss at Murray by 8. Austin Peay is 15-7 in this event since '02, but lost in first round LY. Home side won both series games this year; Eagles got 69-56 win Jan 29, after getting beat 86-85 in OT in Clarksville Jan 21.
Friday's Totals to Watch
By Bruce Marshall
Here’s a quick look at several current "totals" trends to watch in Friday’s college hoops card...
Ohio at Miami-Ohio... Although Charlie Coles’ Miami-O RedHawks were "under" earlier this week vs. Buffalo, they are still "over" in 8 of their last 12 games. Visiting Ohio U also trending "over" (6-3 last 9) lately.
Akron at Kent State... The host Golden Flashes are "over" in 7 of their last 8 games.
Yale at Columbia... Conflicting "totals" trends between the old Ivy rivals (Yale "over" 7-2 its last 9, but Monica Crowley’s alma mater Columbia "under" six in a row).
Brown at Cornell... Each of these Ivy entries has been trending "over" in recent weeks (Brown in 7 of its last 9, Cornell n 3 straight and 6 of its last 8).
Princeton at Dartmouth... Note that rugged Dartmouth is "over" in 5 of its last 6 games.
Penn at Harvard... The visiting Quakers are "under" in 4 of their last 5 games.
Georgia State vs. UNC-Wilmington (Colonial Tourney)... The Seahawks are "over" 5-2-2 ion their last nine games.
Towson vs. Drexel (Colonial Tourney)... Bruiser Flint’s Drexel is "under" 10-1 its last 11 games.
Delaware vs. Northeastern (Colonial Tourney)... Both trending "over" lately; Delaware 4-0 its last 4 and 7-2 its last 9, Northeastern an amazing 14-1 its last 15 and 18-2 its last 20!
William & Mary vs. James Madison (Colonial Tourney)... Conflicting trends in the nightcap of he CAA quadruple-header at Richmond; W&M "over" four straight but JMU "under" 5-2 its last 7.
Southern Illinois vs. Missouri State (MVC Tourney)... The Bears are "over" 10-3 in their last 13 outings.
Creighton vs. Northern Iowa (MVC Tourney)... The Panthers are "over" 6-1 in their last 7 games.
Wright State vs. Cleveland State (Horizon Tourney)... The Vikings are "over" 5-2 in their last 7 outings.
Detroit vs. Valparaiso (Horizon Tourney)... The Titans are "over" 7-1 in their last 8 games.
Loyola-Marymount at Portland (WCC Tourney)... The Lions are "over" in their last four outings.
San Diego at Pepperdine (WCC Tourney)... The Toreros are "under" 6-1 in their last seven games.