MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNAMENT
(at St. Louis, Mo.)
Missouri State (20-11, 15-16 ATS) vs. Wichita State (23-8, 11-12-1 ATS)
Wichita State shoots for its fifth straight victory over the Bears – including the third this season – when these teams clash in the quarterfinals of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament at the Scottrade Center.
Missouri State advanced with last night’s 52-46 victory over Evansville, falling short as a 9½-point favorite. The Bears have won three of their last four games following a 5-9 SU tumble, all in conference. However, they’ve been a disaster at the betting window lately, going 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games.
The Shockers closed out regular-season play with Saturday’s 76-55 destruction of Southern Illinois, easily cashing as a 7½-point home favorite to finish second in the league standings and earn a first-round bye. With the win over Southern Illinois, Wichita State snapped a two-game SU and six-game ATS losing skid. The Shockers started the season 19-4 but split their final eight games. Also, they’ve lost four straight (1-3 ATS) and six of seven (1-5-1 ATS) on the highway.
Wichita State swept the season series from the Bears by a total of five points, winning 65-62 as a 2½-point road underdog on Jan. 6 and 66-64 as a seven-point home chalk on Valentine’s Day. The Shockers are 4-0 (2-2 ATS) going back to last February, including a 59-46 rout as a four-point favorite in the quarterfinals of last year’s MVC tourney.
Missouri State has cashed in four of its last five games after a non-cover, but is otherwise in ATS funks of 16-34-2 in conference play and 0-5 at neutral sites. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the Bears’ last seven games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15. Meanwhile, the Shockers have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 games, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a favorite.
The under is 5-0 in the Bears’ last four neutral-site contests and 5-0 in their last five after a non-cover. The under is also 6-3 in Wichita’s last nine games, including 4-1 away from home. Finally, the last three meetings in this rivalry going back to last season’s MVC tourney contest have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Indiana State (17-13, 16-11 ATS) at Illinois State (21-9, 13-13 ATS)
Indiana State battles the Redbirds for the second time in eight days, this time in the quarterfinals of the Missouri Valley tournament.
The Sycamores got dumped 75-58 at Illinois State as a 10-point underdog last Thursday, but rebounded with Saturday’s 75-72 overtime victory over Missouri State as a one-point road underdog. Indiana State is 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games, but it has lost four straight away from home (2-2 ATS). Indiana State finished in a tie for fifth in the Missouri Valley with a .500 league record in 18 games (11-7 ATS).
Illinois State ran its winning streak to six in a row with last week’s rout of Indiana State, but the run ended Saturday with a 61-55 loss at first-place Northern Iowa. However, the Redbirds covered as a 7½-point road pup, so they’ve rebounded from a 4-8 ATS funk to cash in each of their last three games. Illinois State finished third in the league standings at 11-7 (10-8 ATS), one game ahead of Creighton and one game behind Wichita State.
These teams split their two battles this season, with Indiana State prevailing 72-65 as a two-point home underdog on Feb. 3. With last Thursday’s victory at home, the Redbirds snapped a four-game SU and six-game ATS streak to the Sycamores in this rivalry. Also, the ‘dog had been on an 8-0 ATS roll prior to last week’s clash.
Indiana State is on pointspread upticks of 8-2 overall, 19-7 within the Missouri Valley, 4-1 at neutral sites, 5-0 after a SU victory and 6-1 against winning teams. The Redbirds are on ATS runs of 4-1 overall (all versus winning teams), but the underdog has covered in six of their last seven games, the only exception being last week’s contest against the Sycamores.
Indiana State is on “over” surges of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in conference and 5-0 versus winning teams, while Illinois State has topped the total in five of six after a spread-cover and four of five following a SU victory. However, the under is 10-3 in the Redbirds’ last 13 neutral-site outings and 4-1 in their last five on Friday.
Finally, these teams have topped the total in each of their last seven series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANA STATE
NCAAB News and Notes
Friday, March 5
Information on the best of Friday's college basketball games.
Akron (+2.5) lost 87-70 at Kent in first meeting, making just 4-17 from arc, while Kent shot 52% from floor; winner here gets top seed in MAC tourney next week. Zips won seven of last eight games, won last three at home by 14-3-10 points. Kent won 12 of its last 13 games. MAC home favorites of less than 4 points are 11-1 against the spread.
Colonial tournament
Road team won both NC-Wilmington-Towson games this year; Tigers were 8-32 from arc, 22-28 from foul line-- UNCW was 15-54 from arc, 24-37 from line. Seahawks lost 12 of last 15 games overall. Towson has covered last seven CAA tourney games, going 4-3 SU last three years; they're 5-3 in last eight CAA games, after starting league play 1-9.
VCU (-15) beat Delaware 77-64 Jan 9, in only series meeting this year; Rams split last six games; they're 8-4 vs spread in last 12 games as fave. Blue Hens lost six in row, nine of last ten games; they're 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as a dog. VCU is 0-4 as double digit fave in this event last 3 years. Double digit faves are 11-15 vs spread in CAA this year.
Georgia State (+7.5) lost 87-74 at Hofstra six days ago, in only meeting this season; Pride blocked eight GSU shots, made 12-27 from arc, had 20 offensive boards. Hofstra won nine of last 10 games, covering last five in CAA play. Panthers lost five of last seven games; they're 1-3 vs spread in last four games as an underdog in CAA games.
Drexel beat James Madison twice this year, 78-57 at home (-8), making 9-17 from arc, 67-64 at JMU (-2.5) in game they trailed by 8 at the half. Dragons had 31 offensive boards in the two games- they lost four of last six games overall, are 5-2 vs spread in last seven games as CAA favorite. Dukes lost eight of last nine games (3-1-1 vs spread in last five).
Missouri Valley tournament
Northern Iowa beat Drake twice this year, 67-51 at home (-14), 57-48 in Des Moines (-4.5); Bulldogs took total of 15 FTs in those two games. Panthers are 2-6 vs spread in last eight games as MVC fave- they've got Elgseder back (suspension). Drake won by hoop last night, using one sub for more than 8 minutes. SIU was just 10-21 from foul line last nite.
Creighton beat Bradley twice this year, 73-68 in Peoria (+2.5), 82-71 at home (-8); Bluejays made 21-52 from arc (40.4%), Bradley 9-35 (25.7%) in those games. Bradley is 5-3 in last eight games, 6-3 vs spread in last nine as a dog. Creighton won its first tourney game 10 of last 12 years; they're 4-1 vs spread in last five games as a favorite.
Wichita State beat Missouri State twice this year, 65-62 in Springfield (+2.5; led by 19 at half), 66-64 at home (-7.5, outscored Bears 29-7 at foul line). Shockers are just 7-6 in last 13 games, 1-6 vs spread in last seven games as a favorite. Bears won brickfest last night (shot 33%), but used eight guys for 18+ minutes, so fatigue shouldn't be issue.
Home side won both Indiana St-Illinois St games; Redbirds went 6-33 on arc, 46-58 from line; Sycamores were 17-48 on arc, 31-34 on line. MVC favorites of between 6-10 points are 14-7 vs spread. Redbirds won six of last seven games, covering four of last 11 as a favorite. Sycamores lost four of last seven, but are 5-3 vs spread in last eight games as the dog.
Horizon tournament
Green Bay beat Detroit twice this year, by hoop both times; Titans shot 57% in first game, 37% in second, were combined 4-20 from arc, but lost both. Detroit won last four games, allowing 64 ppg- they covered one of last five as a favorite. Green Bay won five of last seven games. Horizon favorites of 2 or less points are 6-9 against the spread this season.
Home side won both Cleveland State-Milwaukee games; State turned it over total of 10 times in two games (+19) but was 16-21 on foul line, as opposed to 31-44 for Milwaukee. Vikings lost four of last six games, are 4-6 away from home in Horizon play. Milwaukee won six of last seven games, winning its last four games on foreign soil.
SoCon tournament
Davidson beat Elon 99-96 in double OT six days ago, making two treys in last 0:02 to stun Elon; Wildcats are 10-1 in this event last four years, won first game in this event the last seven years. Elon lost last three in a row by 4-10-3 points; they're 5-1 in first tourney game, losing final to Davidson two years ago. Elon is 7-4 in last 11 games as the underdog.
Home side won both Furman-NCGreensboro games; UNCG led both at half, by 17-9 points. Total of 138 FTs were taken in two games, so lot of aggressive play on both sides. Furman lost five of last seven games; they're 4-1 in last five games as favorite. Spartans lost seven of last nine games; they're 3-5 against spread in last eight games as the underdog.
Citadel snuck by Samford twice by total of five points (51-50/61-57) as Bulldogs hit 16-40 beyond arc. Citadel lost last three games, scoring an average of 54.3 ppg; they're 3-4-1 vs spread as SoCon favorite. Samford lost last three games and nine of last 11 games; they're 2-6-1 in last nine games as dog. SoCon favorites of 3 or less points are 14-11 vs spread.
Georgia Southern (-3) lost 75-63 at home to Chattanooga Jan 6, forcing 27 turnovers, but Mocs made 14-23 beyond arc, shot 50% for the game. Eagles are 12-3 vs spread in last 15 games, 3-2 SU in last five- in their last three wins, they shot combined 33-66 from arc. Mocs lost seven of last eight games but covered last four- they lost last eight road games.
Ohio Valley tournament
Murray State is 18-1 in OVC, beating Eastern Illinois twice, 75-59 at home (-13), 60-51 at EIU (-10.5), Panthers' only home loss in the OVC. EIU shot 37% in both games. Racers are 3-5 vs spread in last eight as a favorite. Panthers won last eight games, but six of the eight were home games- they're 6-4 vs spread as an OVC underdog this season.
Morehead State won this tourney LY; they beat Tennessee Tech twice this year, 84-75 at home (-15.5), 77-64 on road (-3, trailed by 6 at half in game where Tech shot 55%). Morehead won its last five games, is 10-6 vs spread as OVC favorite. Tech lost six of last nine games, they're 5-7 against the spread as an underdog in OVC games this season.
Metro Atlantic tournament
Loyola beat Manhattan twice this year, 62-56 on road (+2.5), 71-59 at home (-4); neither team shot as high as 36% in either game. Greyhounds lost four of last five games, are 2-5-1 vs spread as MAAC fave. Jaspers are 4-11 in last 15 games; they're 6-4 as MAAC underdog. Favorites of 2 or less points are 7-9 against the spread in MAAC play.
Marist lost its last 16 games, has only one win all year; Red Foxes lost twice to Canisius 72-57 at home (+5.5), 71-56 at home (-14); Griffins made 17-52 from arc in those games, lot of 3's tried. Canisius is 3-2 in its last five games; they're 3-2 vs spread as MAAC favorite. Double digit favorites are 10-13 against the spread in MAAC play this season.
West Coast tournament
LMU (-2.5) lost WCC opener 79-75 at Pepperdine, as Waves knocked down 14-23 from arc in game Lions led by 13 at half; LMU won 77-61 in second game (-6.5), holding Waves to 35% from floor. Lions are 5-2 in last seven games, covering eight of last 10, but this is first time in last 27 days they're favored. Pepperdine lost last 11 games (0-10 vs spread).
Santa Clara/San Diego split this year; Toreros (-4) won 55-46 at Santa Clara, holding Broncos to 35% from floor, then lost at home to Broncos 59-43 (-8) making just 36% from floor. San Diego went 2-11 after win at Santa Clara, covering two of last seven as a favorite. Santa Clara lost its last three gamesm seven of nine. WCC faves of 4 or less points: 5-7.