Monday's Best NCAAB Bets
No. 20 Kansas St. at No. 12 Missouri (-5.5, 150)
All of a sudden, Mizzou feels like it’s heading into a must-win situation Monday against the Wildcats.
After a great start to the season, the Tigers suffered their second loss in three games in Big 12 play Saturday against Texas A&M. Mizzou was set as a 5-point underdog and hung around all day, but ended up falling 91-89 in overtime.
Now the Tigers are up against a Kansas St. team that heads into Monday’s matchup just as desperate.
“Every game is a big game,” Missouri’s Marcus Denmon said told reporters on Saturday. “In the Big 12 every win is huge. But we’ve really got ourselves behind the eight-ball now. We have to come out and protect home.”
The Wildcats are coming off a blowout win over Texas Tech, but they are also 1-2 in Big 12 play. Another loss for either of these club would seriously damage their conference title hopes. This one might go down to the last shot.
Pick: Kansas St.
No. 7 Villanova at No. 9 UConn (-1.5, 141.5)
Villanova bench boss Jay Wright knows exactly how dangerous UConn guard Kemba Walker can be. Wright had Walker on his side last summer when he served as co-coach for the USA Select team and watched from the sideline as Walker asserted himself against the USA national team in a scrimmage.
"Offensively, they couldn't press us," Wright told reporters. "He had a day there where he went for 26 against those guys. On the offensive end, he's not just a shooter. He'll come off screens, he'll play off the ball and he'll find teammates."
That’s just what everybody has seen so far this season from Walker. He has led UConn in scoring in every game this season and tops the Huskies with 25 points per contest and 3.8 assists.
Wright has had a tough time with UConn even with Walker out of the equation, winning only four of Villanova’s last 14 meetings with the Huskies. We’re expecting another big night for the UConn guard on Monday and he could be the difference as the Huskies look for their fifth straight payday.
Pick: UConn
Game of the day: Syracuse Orange at Pitt Panthers
By Marc Lawrence
A battle of Big East leaders tips off at the Peterson Events Center in Pittsburgh when the fifth-ranked Panthers (17-1, 5-0) host the fourth-ranked Orange (18-0, 5-0).
RUNAWAY
Syracuse furthered its unbeaten mark, disposing No. 25 Cincinnati 67-52, in front of the largest crowd in college basketball this season inside the Carrier Dome on Saturday.
Runs to start each half proved to be the biggest difference for the Orange, who reeled off an 18-3 run to start the game and a 16-0 burst to open the second half.
"We're a much better team in the second half because we tend to adjust to what they're doing," Syracuse PG Brandon Triche said. "If they're making a lot of 3s, we make sure we get out to their shooters. Once we stop their game plan, that's when we go on our runs."
Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin was understandably perplexed after the contest.
“You can't win these type of games if you get down 16 in the Carrier Dome," Cronin said. "It's too much. They're too good of a team.
"In the beginning of the game and the beginning of the second half, both those five-minute stretches beat us today."
MAJOR HEADACHE
The Orange have started the same five players in each game during their 18-0 start this season. That streak looks to be in jeopardy tonight.
After hitting his head on a hard fall, leading scorer Kris Joseph remained inside the locker room for the entirety of the second half of Saturday’s win over the Bearcats, but it didn't matter.
The early momentum after halftime multiplied in favor of the Orange. In the process, 7-foot center Fab Melo had arguably his best performance in a Syracuse uniform.
After the game, Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim said Joseph was unlikely to play Monday at Pittsburgh.
"Kris went down hard," he said. "I don't have any idea what's going on. We won't know anything for sure. It's obviously unlikely he won't be able to turn around. He got banged pretty good when he hit the floor."
NEW INWARDS
Syracuse leaves the state of New York for only the fourth time this season in its third true road game of the season.
Given the fact that the other three games the Orange have played away from the Carrier Dome this campaign were contested in New Jersey, this marks the first trip ‘Cuse will be playing outside its border states.
SIMPLY THE BEST
Pitt matched its best start in Big East play, achieved three previous times in its 29-year conference history, with a 21-point home win over Seton Hall Saturday evening.
After its dominating effort at Georgetown last Wednesday, the Panthers didn’t look like a national power early on Saturday. They missed their first five shots against the visiting Pirates and started the game 3 for 15 from the field.
Fortunately for Pittsburgh, the Hall was nearly as cold and the Panthers methodically pulled away to a 74-53 victory.
Center Gary McGhee tied his career high with 13 points and added 10 rebounds, SG Brad Wanamaker had nine points, seven rebounds and seven assists, and reserve F Talib Zanna (10 points) had his first double digit scoring game in nearly two months.
Tonight’s game will mark only the third meeting between two Top-5 ranked teams at the Pete, where the Panthers are 8-0 against Top-5 teams, including a 78-63 victory this season over then-No. 4 UConn.
ORANGE PEEL
Series history between these two squads finds Pittsburgh holding the recent upper hand, going 12-3 straight up and against the spread the last 15 meetings.
The Panthers are also 13-2 straight up and 10-5 against the spread in lined games against undefeated teams under head coach Jamie Dixon.
On the other side of the coin, Syracuse is 143-17 straight up in games in which it is undefeated since 1990, including 18-5 against the spread when not laying points.
TALE OF THE TAPE
According to Covers.com’s college basketball statistics, here is a breakdown of how each team ranks among 345 others in three pivotal stat categories: Offensive field goal percentage, defensive field goal percentage and rebound margin this season:
Offensive FG Percentage
Syracuse 48.7 – No. 12
Pittsburgh 48.5 – No. 15
Defensive FG Percentage
Syracuse 36.8 – No. 4
Pittsburgh 40.5 – No. 60
Rebound Margin
Pittsburgh +13.4 - No. 1
Syracuse +4.6 – No. 50
CHEW ON THIS
Pitt is 144-11 in the Peterson Events Center since it opened in 2002.
Pitt hosts Syracuse in huge NCAA odds duel
By: David Schwab
Monday night brings us a monster matchup in the Big East when the No. 4 Syracuse Orange tangle with the No. 5 Pittsburgh Panthers at Petersen Events Center in Iron City. Tip-off is set for 4:30 (PT) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Syracuse ran its conference record to 5-0 straight-up with a 67-52 romp over Cincinnati on Saturday as a seven-point home favorite. This followed a convincing 76-59 win over St. John’s as a three-point road favorite last Wednesday. The Orange are now a perfect 18-0 SU, but just 7-9 against the spread.
This team is led by one of the best trio of players north of Miami. Junior forward Kris Joseph is the team’s leading scorer; knocking down an average of 15.3 points per game. Junior guard Scoop Jardine is averaging a team-high 6.1 assists per game and 13.7 points, while senior forward Rick Jackson leads the team in rebounds with 11.7 per game and is averaging 13.2 points.
The Orange are averaging 76 points and 39 rebounds per game. They are shooting 48.7 percent from the field and 34.9 percent from three-point range. The only area that Syracuse has struggled a bit this season is from the foul line where it is converting on just 64.1 percent of its attempts.
Pittsburgh might be considered the second-best team in the Big East right now, but it is more than capable of standing toe-to-toe with Syracuse. The Panthers moved to a perfect 5-0 in the conference with a 21-point romp over Seton Hall on Saturday as a 13 ½-point home favorite. Even more impressive was their 72-57 victory over No. 19 Georgetown as a 2 ½-point road underdog this past Wednesday. Pitt is currently 17-1 SU but is also a bit shaky ATS with a record of 6-7.
Junior guard Ashton Gibbs is the Panthers’ leading scorer with 16.3 points per game and second in assists with 3.5. Senior guard Brad Wanamaker leads in assists with 4.8 and is also averaging 13 points per game. Senior forward Gilbert Brown has also been a key contributor with 11.2 points per game, while senior center Gary McGhee leads the team in rebounds with 7.3.
Pittsburgh is shooting 48.5 percent from the field and averaging 80 points per game, but its real strength has been under the boards. The Panthers are ranked second in the nation in rebounds with a per-game average of 43, giving them a distinct advantage over the Orange in this department.
Syracuse is 2-3 ATS in its last five games on the road and 4-2 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last five games.
Pitt is 3-4 ATS in its last seven home games and 3-2 ATS in its last five games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last five games.
Head-to-head, the Panthers have won eight out of the last 10 games SU, covering the spread in all eight victories. Last season they beat the Orange 82-72 as an 11-point road underdog. The year before, Pitt hammered Syracuse 78-60 as a nine-point home favorite.
This time around, look for the Panthers to open as a mild home favorite. One thing to keep an eye on is the status of Joseph for Syracuse. He is currently listed as doubtful on the injury report with a minor head injury suffered in Saturday's win due to a hard tumble; head coach Jim Boeheim was adopting a wait-&-see approach to his star's status.
Regardless of his availability, stick with Pitt to keep its recent dominance over the Orange intact for another year with a big win.
NCAA Betting Preview: Kansas State at Missouri
By: Willie Bee
Frank Martin and the Kansas State Wildcats entered the 2010-11 season with high expectations. College basketball oddsmakers levied 5/2 futures odds on K-State as the favorites in the Big 12 and coaches opened them No. 3 in their preseason poll.
By the time the Wildcats tip Monday's game in Columbia against the Missouri Tigers, they could be on the outside looking in of the two major rankings. The game is equally important to the Tigers as both schools enter with 1-2 conference records. ESPN will carry the crucial Big 12 contest from Mizzou Arena starting at 2:30 p.m. (PT).
Inconsistency has been Kansas State's biggest opponent up to now. Offense, defense, free throws, you name it and the Wildcats have yet to find their groove. Even their roster has been hit-&-miss in terms of available players.
Saturday's rout of Texas Tech may have gone a long way to correcting those problems. Kansas State (13-5 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) bounced back from its embarrassing home loss to Colorado last Wednesday to treat the crowd at Bramlage Coliseum to a 94-60 runaway over the Red Raiders, much to the delight of bettors who laid the 14 points.
The Wildcats shot over 53 percent from the field, and nearly 60 percent from three-point range, and hit a season-best 81 percent from the charity stripe (13-of-16). Four starters scored in double figures, led by Jamar Samuels' 22. Rodney McGruder posted a double-double with 16 points and 15 boards, and Curtis Kelly added 12 points in his first game back from a six-game suspension.
While K-State was registering its first conference win of the campaign on Saturday, Missouri (15-3 SU, 6-7 ATS) was dropping its second in a 91-89 overtime loss at Texas A&M. The Tigers watched a 12-point lead in the first half disappear when the Aggies went on a 22-6 run to finish the initial 20 minutes of play. Mizzou then let a four-point advantage slip away in the closing 90 seconds of regulation before Texas A&M's Khris Middleton lifted his team on his shoulders and carried the Ags to the victory with 11 OT points.
Missouri, a 4½-point underdog in College Station, lost the closely-fought game at the charity stripe on 9-of-19 shooting and far fewer opportunities. The Aggies got the benefit of the doubt on a couple of close calls and were busy from the free-throw line with a 29-of-38 afternoon.
The last three seasons have seen the two conference rivals defend their home court in the series with three wins apiece. Missouri grabbed a 74-68 win at home last January as five-point chalk with Kansas State returning the favor in late-February, 63-53, carrying a six-point favorite's tag.
Kansas State's last road win in this series was Jan. 13, 2007, Bob Huggins' only season at the Wildcats' helm. The Wildcats posted an 85-81 triumph as four-point underdogs in that one.
The pressure to defend the floor at Mizzou Arena is clearly on the Tigers who should find themselves favored by 5-6 once odds are released.
The two teams will meet again on Feb. 26 in Manhattan, KS. In the meantime Missouri stays home to host Iowa State next Saturday then takes a week off before traveling to face the Texas Longhorns. Kansas State continues its road trip, heading south to College Station to meet Texas A&M on Saturday before returning home to host Baylor (Jan. 24).
MLK Day Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
On Martin Luther King Day, bettors get a quadruple-header of college hoops on ESPN, starting with a little afternoon action from the Big East. That’s right, Connecticut will take on Villanova in Storrs at 3:30 p.m. Eastern in a game between teams with a combined record of 30-3.
Then at 5:30 p.m. Eastern, we’ll get a Big 12 showdown pitting Missouri against a struggling Kansas State squad. Next, it’s back to the Big East for Syracuse at Pittsburgh, followed by another Big 12 tilt between Kansas and Baylor in Waco. KU and the ‘Cuse are two of four unbeaten teams (San Diego St. and Ohio St. are the others) remaining.
Let’s get you ready for bets and ballgames…
Villanova at Connecticut
As of early Sunday night, most betting shops had installed Connecticut (14-2 straight up, 8-2 against the spread) as a two-point favorite with a total of 141 ½.
UConn started the season by winning its first 10 games, only to drop two out of three. Since then, however, the Huskies have won three in a row, including Saturday’s 82-62 win at DePaul as 9½-point road favorites. Kemba Walker was sensational once again, scoring a game-high 31 points to go with five assists, four rebounds and only one turnover. Jeremy Lamb chipped in with 13 points, six rebounds, four assists and a pair of blocked shots.
Since suffering its lone loss of the season to Tennessee at MSG in NYC on Nov. 26, Villanova (16-1 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) has won 11 consecutive games. Most importantly, the Wildcats have taken the cash their last six times out, including Saturday’s 74-66 win over Maryland as five-point home favorites. Maalik Wayns scored a team-high 22 points, while Corey Fisher had 17 points and five assists. Antonio Pena added 14 points and 10 rebounds.
Jim Calhoun’s team is unbeaten in nine home games, going 2-1 ATS. The Huskies, who are No. 7 in the RPI rankings, have a 5-2 SU record against RPI Top 50 squads. They are 2-0 ATS in a pair of games as single-digit favorites.
Villanova (RPI: 13) has three straight road games looming with a trip to the Carrier Dome to face Syracuse on deck. The Wildcats face the Orange on Saturday before a Jan. 26 trip to Providence.
Jay Wright’s team has played three RPI Top 50 teams, going 2-1 SU. The Wildcats are 6-1 against RPI Top 100 squads. They are an underdog in this game for the first time this season.
These schools met only once last year with UConn capturing an 84-75 win as a 9 ½-point road underdog. Walker was the catalyst with 29 points and nine rebounds.
The ‘over’ is 8-5-1 overall for ‘Nova, 5-2-1 in its last eight games with a total.
The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for UConn, but the ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back games for the Huskies. The ‘under’ is 2-1 in UConn’s three home games with a listed total.
The ‘over’ is on a 7-2 run in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these Big East rivals.
ESPN will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
Kansas State at Missouri
As of early Sunday night, most books had Missouri (15-3 SU, 6-7 ATS) listed as a 5 1/2-point favorite with a total of 149.
Kansas State (13-5 SU, 4-8 ATS) was an Elite Eight squad last season and preseason Top 10 team this year. However, the Wildcats have lost two of their first three games in Big 12 play and have a mediocre RPI of 49. They did show some life Saturday, thumping Texas Tech 94-60 as 14-point home favorites. Jamar Samuels was the catalyst for the winners, tallying 22 points, nine rebounds and five assists. Jacob Pullen, fresh off his ‘I won’t play in the NIT’ rant following Wednesday’s home loss to Colorado, scored 21 points and dished out five assists. Rodney McGruder added 16 points and 15 rebounds.
Mike Anderson’s team lost its Big 12 opener at Colorado (89-76) on Jan. 8 before beating Nebraska (77-69) on Jan. 12. On Saturday in College Station, Missouri dropped a heartbreaker in overtime to Texas A&M by a 91-89 count. Gamblers backing the Tigers were able to cash tickets catching five points. Ricardo Ratliffe had 19 points and nine rebounds before fouling out in the losing effort.
Missouri is 3-3 ATS in six games as a single-digit favorite. The Tigers are unbeaten in 11 home games, posting a 3-3 spread record. They have three wins over RPI Top 33 teams (Vandy, Illinois and Old Dominion).
Frank Martin’s team has been an underdog just once, losing 82-68 to Duke as a 5 ½-point ‘dog in Kansas City. The Wildcats have lost five of nine games against RPI Top 100 teams.
The ‘under’ is 9-3 overall for K-St., but the ‘over’ has hit in three of its last four outings.
The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for Missouri, hitting in each of its last three games.
These Big 12 rivals split a pair of meetings last season with each team winning and covering the number at home. The ‘under’ cashed in both encounters, but the ‘over’ is still 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
Tip-off is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Syracuse at Pittsburgh
As of early Sunday night, most spots had Pittsburgh (17-1 SU, 6-7 ATS) as a five-point favorite with a total of 139. Gamblers can take Jim Boeheim’s team to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).
Jamie Dixon’s squad has won seven in a row since taking its only loss to Tennessee on Dec. 11. The Panthers have won their first five Big East games, including Saturday’s 74-53 win over Seton Hall as 13 ½-point home favorites. Gary McGhee led a balanced Pitt scoring attack with 13 points and 10 rebounds.
Syracuse (18-0 SU, 7-9 ATS) has only been an underdog once this year, beating Michigan St. 72-58 as a four-point ‘dog at MSG. The Orange is coming off Saturday’s 67-52 win over Cincinnati as a seven-point home favorite. Rick Jackson led the way with 15 points and 11 rebounds on 7-of-8 shooting from the field.
According to Mike Waters of the Syracuse Post-Standard, leading scorer Kris Joseph did not travel with the team and is ‘out’ after hitting his head late in Saturday’s win over the Bearcats. Joseph, who leads the Orange in scoring with a 14.6 points-per-game average, left the court on his own power but did not return.
-Pitt has absolutely dominated Syracuse in recent years, winning four in a row over the Orange and seven of the last eight both SU and ATS. The ‘Cuse hasn’t tasted victory against Pitt since the 2006 Big East Tournament.
Pitt owns a 2-4 spread record in six games as a single-digit favorite. The Panthers have a 6-1 SU record against teams in the RPI Top 100. They have an RPI of 5.
Syracuse is third in the RIP and has nine wins over Top 100 teams.
The ‘under’ is 10-5 overall for the ‘Cuse, 4-1 in its last five games.
The ‘over’ is 9-4 overall for Pitt, but the ‘under’ has cashed in its last two outings.
Tip-off is slated for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
Kansas at Baylor
As of early Sunday night, most books had Kansas (17-0 SU, 7-8 ATS) listed as a 3 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 139 ½.
Baylor (12-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) is unbeaten in 10 home games, going 1-2 ATS. The Bears saw their four-game winning streak ended in Saturday’s 72-57 loss at Iowa St. as 1 ½-point favorites. LaceDarius Dunn had 20 points and six rebounds in the losing effort.
Kansas has failed to cover the spread in three straight games, including Saturday’s 63-60 win over Nebraska as a 15 ½-point home favorite. Tyrel Reed and Marcus Morris scored 16 points apiece for the Jayhawks,
KU has 10 win over RPI Top 100 teams but just two victories over RPI Top 50 squads (Arizona and California).
Baylor is winless in four games against RPI Top 100 teams. Hence, the Bears have an RPI of 99. They are
The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for Baylor, 2-1 in its home games with a total. Meanwhile, KU has seen the ‘over’ go 8-7 overall.
ESPN will have television coverage at 9:30 p.m. Eastern.
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Tips and Trends
Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers
ORANGE: Syracuse will be as focused tonight as they have been in any game this year, as they look to keep their unblemished record intact. The Orange are 18-0 SU this season, ranking them 4th in the nation. Syracuse has struggled with the Panthers recently, losing the past 4 meetings SU. The past 2 SU losses have come by double figures, so the Orange will have revenge on their minds. Syracuse is 7-9 ATS this year, with tonight marking just the 2nd time all season they've been the listed underdog. The Orange beat Michigan St. SU earlier this season as a 4 point underdog. Syracuse is averaging 75 PPG this year, thanks to 48.7% shooting from the field. F Kris Joseph is one of 4 Orange players averaging double digits in PPG this year. Joseph is averaging a team high 14.6 PPG, as well as 5.2 RPG. F Rick Jackson is averaging 13.2 PPG and a team high 11.7 RPG this year. The Orange are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. Syracuse is 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games against the Big East. The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
Orange are 10-3 ATS last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-1 in Orange last 5 vs. Big East.
Key Injuries - F Kris Joseph (head) is questionable.
Projected Score: 71
PANTHERS: (-4.5, O/U 138.5) Pittsburgh has been arguably the most impressive team since conference play has begun. The Panthers are 17-1 SU this season, with their lone loss coming to Tennessee this year. Pittsburgh is also 6-7 ATS this year, including 2-4 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. The Panthers are 3-4 ATS at home this season. Pittsburgh has a more potent offense than in seasons past, as they are averaging 80.3 PPG, 17th best in the nation. The Panthers are averaging a nation's best 20.1 APG this year, proving just how much they play as a team. P Ashton Gibbs leads Pittsburgh with 16.3 PPG and 3.5 APG this year this year. G Brad Wanamaker is averaging 12.8 PPG and 5.3 APG this year, and is the Panthers most indispensable player. If Pittsburgh is able to beat the Orange tonight, they will have sole possession of the Big East Conference lead. The Panthers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.
Panthers are 1-7 ATS last 8 games following an ATS win.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 74 (OVER-Total of the Day)
Kansas Jayhawks at Baylor Bears
JAYHAWKS: (-3.5, O/U 139.5) Kansas is one of 4 undefeated teams in the country this season, as they are a perfect 17-0 SU. The Jayhawks have had close calls in each of their last 2 games, but they have came out unscathed. Kansas has had 2 close games of late with Baylor, losing each ATS. The Jayhawks are 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road this year. Kansas is 0-2 ATS this season as a single digit favorite. The Jayhawks are averaging 83.1 PPG this year, 10th best in the nation. F Marcus Morris is averaging a team high 16.7 PPG this year, as well as 7 RPG. His well known teammate F Markieff Morris is averaging 12.8 PPG and a team high 8.7 RPG this season. Kansas has been playing great defense of late, holding 4 of their last 5 opponents to 60 PTS or fewer. The Jayhawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Monday games. Kansas is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against the Big 12.
Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS last 4 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Under is 4-1 last 5 Monday games.
Key Injuries - G Travis Releford (leg) is questionable.
Projected Score: 70
BEARS: Baylor was clearly caught looking ahead to tonight's contest, as they lost on the road at Iowa St. in their last game. Baylor is one of the most talented teams in the nation, which makes many frustrated at their season long record. The Bears are 12-4 SU and 3-6 ATS overall this season. The Bears have one of the best pure scores in the nation in LaceDarius Dunn, as well as a future overall #1 NBA Draft pick in Perry Jones. Despite this talent, the Bears aren't even ranked. Baylor is a perfect 10-0 SU and 1-2 ATS at home this year. Tonight will be the first time Baylor will be the listed underdog this season. Dunn is averaging a team high 22.3 PPG this season. F Quincy Acy is averaging 13.6 PPG and 7.9 RPG this year. The Bears are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Baylor is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600%.
Bears are 0-5 ATS last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Under is 4-0 last 4 Monday games.
Key Injuries - G Stargell Love (foot) is out.
Projected Score: 71 (SIDE of the Day)