Game of the day: Jayhawks at Aggies
By Nick Parsons.
Barring a season-ending collapse, Kansas (24-1, 10-0) has virtually locked up a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks are also the leader in the clubhouse for the overall No. 1 seed in the tournament.
Texas A&M (18-6, 7-3) is one of the hottest teams in the nation. The Aggies made a steady climb up the RPI rankings over the past three weeks highlighted by big wins over Missouri and Oklahoma. They’re coming off a win at Texas Tech on Saturday and are in second place in the Big 12 standings.
Winning is a habit
Kansas’ only loss of the season came at Tennessee over a month ago and under strange circumstances. It was the first game after the Vols suspended four players for legal troubles involving drugs and a loaded gun. Tennessee came out inspired and pulled away down the stretch.
Since then Kansas has rolled over just about every team in its path. But the oddsmakers have been right on the Jayhawks during their roll. Kansas is 24-1 on the season but just 10-11-1 ATS.
You have to wonder how important this game is to Kansas after coach Bill Self said recently that he felt his team was actually stronger in 2008 when it won the national title because it went through a stretch where it lost three of five games in the middle of the Big 12 slate.
“I love our record,” Self said. “But the objective is not to have great record. The objective is to have a great team.”
Then again, Texas A&M is only three games behind the Jayhawks in the conference standings and most believe that Kansas’ most impressive wins this season were on the road at Temple, Texas and Kansas State.
Rolling Aggies
The Aggies have rallied from double-digit deficits four times this year. Coach Mark Turgeon said his team is riding the best wave in his three years at the school. The Aggies have won four straight and six of their last seven setting up this monstrous test. You can be Reed Arena will be a madhouse tonight.
"Are you kidding me?" he said. "To play the No. 1 team on your home court when you have a lot of confidence is something you dream about. We know we'll get Kansas' best shot. It should be a heck of a game."
Take a number
Kansas leads the Big 12 in just about every offensive category. It averages 83 points a game (fourth in nation) and has a winning margin of just over 20 points.
Turgeon is worried about two things: his team’s defense and free throw shooting. Both were bad again on Saturday against Texas Tech.
“We are slipping a little defensively,” Turgeon said. “I think we have spent so much time getting ready for what the other team does we haven’t been doing all the little things that make us what we are defensively, and (last week gave) us time for us to go back. We gave up a lot of layups the other day and a couple of wide-open 3s in transition, and that’s not good basketball.”
Texas Tech hit 7-of-18 from 3-point range Saturday and the Aggies struggled again from the free throw line shooting just 59 percent but those things are not coming back to bite them in their hot streak. The Aggies are ranked 278th in the nation in free throw shooting.
Trend setting
Texas A&M has beaten the spread in its last four games. It opened the season with a five-game ATS winning streak.
The Aggies went under the total last game after going over the mark four straight times.
Texas A&M is 13-0 straight up at home this season.
Kansas is 7-1 straight up on the road this season and 4-1 ATS in last five games at A&M.
Kansas loves Big Monday. The Jayhawks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 Monday games.
The Jayhawks failed to cover Saturday and are 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after failing to cover.
Are top-ranked Jayhawks a good bet Monday?
Doug Upstone
When any team is ranked No.1 and takes to the road in conference action, they are a massive target. Kansas (24-1, 10-11-1 ATS) has been finding that out with regularity (2-2-1 ATS Big 12 roadies) and hits the pavement to College Station, looking to avoid the upset. The Jayhawks have a plethora of talent on its roster, but those blue jerseys bring out the best in their opponents, making the 17-8 ATS record against Big 12 combatants since last year all the greater an accomplishment.
Coach Bill Self won his 400th game Saturday night in less than 17 seasons, in non-cover over Iowa State 73-59. When asked about thoughts of joining the legends of coaching like Bobby Knight and Dean Smith who have over 800 wins, Self said this, I dont think theres going to be a lot of guys who win 800 from this point forward. I think the business has changed enough where guys arent going to coach for as many years as they had.
Selfs Jayhawks are 9-3-1 ATS off a spread loss since last season.
The Aggies have enjoyed a genial campaign in 2009-10 at 18-6 and are tied for second place in the Big 12 with Kansas State at 7-3, nonetheless the schedule-maker back-loaded Texas A&M (12-8 ATS) with one toughie after another. This Big Monday matchup will test their endurance, after Saturdays 67-65 winning conflict at Texas Tech. B.J. Holmes led the way with 18 points for Aggies club that has won six of seven, including winning and covering four in a row.
For senior guard Donald Sloan this is really meaningful and a W would punctuate a fine career. Reed Arena will be rocking with Texas A&M 16-0 at home (8-4 ATS) dating back to last year and averaging better than 1,300 fans over stated capacity this season.
Kansas is favored by eight and is 18-6 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points a contest after 15 or more games over the last two seasons. The Jayhawks have won last six against Aggies, covering four of them. Texas A&M coach Mark Turgeon has his team feeling good about itself at 8-3 and 7-3 ATS after a cover and 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season.
This is the second game on Big Monday and Kansas is 17-5 ATS in last 22 Monday assignments.
UConn (14-11, 9-14 ATS) at (4) Villanova (22-2, 16-7 ATS)
The struggling Huskies make the trek to The Pavilion at Villanova for a key Big East matchup with the Wildcats.
Connecticut has lost five of its last six games (both SU and ATS), including Saturday’s humiliating 60-48 home loss to Cincinnati as a seven-point favorite. The Huskies, who are on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament and in need of a statement victory, have struggled on the road this year, going 1-8 SU and 4-5 ATS. They’ve been outscored by more than seven points per game (74.3-67.2) when they take to the highway.
Villanova has won 13 of its last 14 (10-4 ATS) overall, including a 92-81 home win over Providence on Saturday, though it came up short as a 14-point favorite. Four of the Wildcats five starters scoring in double digits on Saturday, as Villanova continued its high-scoring ways. Jay Wright’s club averages 87.6 ppg and shoots 48.3 percent from the floor at home, where they are a perfect 11-0 (7-3 ATS) this season.
UConn won the only matchup between these two last season, scoring an 89-83 home win but coming up short as a 9½-point favorite. The Wildcats have cashed in four of the last five series clashes and six of the last nine dating back to 2003, including four straight at home. The host is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the chalk has cashed in five of the last seven.
The Huskies are on ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 on Monday and 2-6 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, Villanova has failed to cover in three of its last four games but is still on several positive ATS streaks, including 15-6 overall, 9-4 in Big East action, 8-3 at home, 6-0 on Monday and 13-6 after a straight-up win.
For UConn, the under is on runs of 7-3 overall, 10-4 on the road, 6-2 in conference play and 7-2 after a non-cover. On the opposite side, the Wildcats have topped the total in 14 of 18 overall, eight of 11 Big East games, 12 of 16 after a straight-up win and five of seven Monday contests. In this series, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings but the under is 4-1 in the last five played at Villanova.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA
(1) Kansas (24-1, 10-11-1 ATS) at Texas A&M (18-6, 12-8 ATS)
The top-ranked Jayhawks head to Reed Arena in College Station, Texas, in search of their 11th straight win when they take on Texas A&M in a Big 12 matchup.
Kansas is coming in off Saturday’s 73-59 home blowout of Iowa State, but it fell short as a 21-point favorite to drop to 1-4 ATS in its last five games. The Jayhawks had four of five starters score in double figures against the Cyclones, with Marcus Morris and Cole Aldrich recording double-doubles. Bill Self’s squad is 9-1 away from home this season (4-5-1 ATS), holding the opposition to 66.9 ppg and 38.3 percent shooting.
The Aggies have rattled off four consecutive SU and ATS wins, including Saturday’s thrilling 67-65 road win at Texas Tech on Saturday, cashing as a one-point underdog thanks to the play of Bryan Davis (13 points, 16 rebounds). Texas A&M sits at a perfect 13-0 at home this season but has cashed in just five of nine lined contests. Going back to last year, the Aggies have won 16 in a row at Reed Arena (8-4 ATS), including 8-0 when hosting Big 12 foes (6-2 ATS).
Kansas has won three straight in this rivalry (2-1 ATS) and nine of the last 10 (6-4 ATS) dating back to the 2001 season. In last season’s lone clash, the Jayhawks scored a 73-53 win as 10½-point home favorite. The road team has gotten the cash in five of the last six meetings, with Kansas covering in four of the last five at College Station.
Despite failing to cover in four of their last five (all in conference), the Jayhawks are still on ATS runs of 17-5 on Monday and 9-3-1 after a non-cover. Texas A&M is on positive ATS streaks of 7-3 after a spread-cover, 4-0 in Big 12 action and 5-1 at home against teams with winning road records.
Kansas has stayed “under” the posted number in five of seven overall, 36 of 53 after a straight-up win, seven of 10 on the road and five of six on Monday. The Aggies have stayed below the number in five of seven at home, but gone “over” the number in four of five overall and five of six at home against teams with winning road records. In this series, the “over” has been the play in three of the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M
Big Monday
Gamblers get a little break on Monday with the Presidents Day holiday. Not much on the tote board tonight except college basketball, which is highlighted by the weekly Big East and Big 12 double-header on ESPN or what’s now known as Big Monday.
Every week the two conferences are featured on the network and based off this year’s outcomes, we’ve seen some nice patterns for both groups.
In the Big East, the road team has posted a 4-2 record and the ‘over’ has gone 4-2 in the first six matchups. UConn has only been featured once and they were one of the two teams to lose on the road, at Louisville (69-82) on Feb. 1. Villanova has played twice on Big Monday and they captured two road wins as live ‘dogs too.
The Big 12 has played one less game and that’s probably a good thing for the Sportsbooks, since the ‘chalk’ has covered all five contests on ESPN. Fortunately for the books, the ‘under’ has cashed in all five. Kansas has played twice, and both times they scored double-digit wins. This will be the first and only appearance for Texas A&M on Big Monday.
Let’s take a closer look at both games in more detail!
Connecticut (14-11 SU, 8-14 ATS) at Villanova (22-2 SU, 16-7 ATS)
“I thought it was one of the worst performances I’ve had here at UConn in 24 years,” said Connecticut head coach Jim Calhoun. “I’m really incredibly disappointed by the performance, and I’m embarrassed by it, quite frankly.”
Calhoun’s comments came after Cincinnati beat UConn 60-48 on Saturday as a seven-point road underdog. The Huskies couldn’t buy a shot, which resulted in their season-low point total. Even though 48 points is tough to register for a top-notch program like UConn, Calhoun has to be aware that this isn’t one of his best squads.
After shooting 55 percent in an 88-74 upset win over then No. 1 Texas at home, the Huskies have been ice cold. They haven’t cracked 70 points since then and they’ve played some teams that like to push the tempo. During the drought, UConn has gone 1-5 both SU and ATS, the lone win at home against DePaul (64-57) on Feb. 6.
Whether or not Calhoun’s words translate into production will be seen Monday when the school faces Villanova on the road. VegasInsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards is real high on the Wildcats and their guard oriented attack.
“Villanova has been a money-making machine all season,” Edwards said. “The Wildcats are 16-7 ATS. They are very explosive offensively, as evidenced by 81 points or more in nine straight games. ‘Nova does a great job of creating turnovers off its press and the pace that creates always bodes well for ‘over’ plays. In turn, bettors have seen the ‘over’ go 14-8 for the Wildcats.”
“Jay Wright had to be thrilled with the way his team responded to the loss at Georgetown, immediately bouncing back to win rather comfortably at West Virginia. That was just a terrible situation for the Wildcats, going into one of the country’s most raucous environments in Morgantown 48 hours after a draining defeat against the Hoyas. Yet Villanova controlled the game from the get-go. Give Wright credit and also Scottie Reynolds, the senior leader who had 19 of his 21 points against the Mountaineers in the second half.”
“Although ‘Nova didn’t cover against Providence, bettors should’ve known to avoid that ‘chalky’ spot. Monday’s game vs. UConn isn’t as a big a number, but it’s still rather healthy. I think it’s hard to gauge what type of effort we’re going to get from UConn after Saturday’s disastrous home loss. The Huskies are desperate so perhaps they give a strong effort, but something tells me they left their season on the court at the Carrier Dome last week. We’ll see.”
The Huskies and ‘Cats have met five times in the last four years and the recent history sides with Villanova, who has posted a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS mark during this stretch. The ‘over’ has gone 3-2.
Villanova opened as a 10-point favorite against UConn, while the total is hovering between 156 and 157. The Huskies haven’t won on the road (0-6, 3-3), but four of their six setbacks were by five points or less. Jay Wright’s squad is 11-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in games played in Philadelphia.
Kansas (24-1 SU, 10-10 ATS) at Texas A&M (18-6 SU, 12-8 ATS)
The Jayhawks jumped to 10-0 in conference play on Saturday after stopping Iowa State 73-59 in Lawrence. The team didn’t cover the 21-point spread but the victory was the 400th for head coach Bill Self. The ATS loss was the fourth in the last five games for Kansas.
It’s going to take a tough effort to beat Kansas considering the talent and depth the team has but it did happen once, at Tennessee (68-76) on Jan. 10. The Jayhawks came out flat in that game, plus the Vols lit it up from downtown (9-of-18) en route to the upset. If you toss out that game, the Jayhawks have posted a 9-0 SU and 4-4 ATS mark in their other road affairs, including last Monday’s 80-68 victory against Texas in Austin.
Does Texas A&M have what it takes to knock off Kansas? The Aggies are on a roll right now, winners of four straight and six of their last seven. The most impressive victory during this stretch came at home against Baylor (78-71) on Feb. 6. The victory over the Bears helped A&M improve to 3-4 against ranked teams this year, which isn’t too bad since that was the first outing at home against a school in the Top 25. Monday will be the second battle from Reed Arena against a ranked opponent.
Speaking of Reed Arena, Texas A&M is undefeated this season at home (13-0 SU, 5-4 ATS). In conference play, the Aggies have gone 5-0 (3-2 ATS). The ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in these Big 12 affairs.
The two teams met in Lawrence last year and Kansas posted a 20-point victory (73-53) against Texas A&M. Including this win, the Jayhawks have gone 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 encounters against the Aggies. Four of those wins happened in College Station and three were by double digits. Tonight, most books have KU listed as an eight-point favorite.
vegasinsider.com
NCAAB News and Notes
Information on Monday's college basketball games........
UConn was awful in Calhoun's return to bench Saturday; they've lost 7 of last 10 games, are 2-2-1 as Big East road underdog, losing away games by 2-3-15-13-5 points. Its Feb 15 and they still haven't won road game. Villanova is 2-4 as Big East home fave. Home team won last six series games; Huskies lost their last three visits here by 5-4-2 points.
Milwaukee held Youngstown State to 35% from floor in 69-59 road win Jan 22 (-1); Panthers lost three of last four games but are 8-3 vs spread in last 11- they're 1-4 as Horizon home favorite, winning home games by 5-20-6-3 points (4-3 SU). Penguins lost last eight games, are 2-3-2 as a road underdog, losing away games by 11-13-8-4-30-8-7-6 points.
Arkansas State split its last six games after 6-1 start in Sun Belt; they're 5-0 at home in conference, 2-1 as home favorite, winning by 8-15-2-2-11 points. UL-Monroe is 5-3 in last eight games but just 2-5 as road dog in Sun Belt, losing on road by 17-22-6-13-19 points, with wins at UALR and New Orleans, the two worst teams in the conference.
New Mexico State (-1) won 71-69 at Hawai'i Jan 21, after trailing by 12 at half; Aggies were 3-20 from arc, shot 38% for night, but had turnover ratio of +9 (9-17)- that game started Hawai'i on current 5-game losing streak (2-5-23-6-10 points). Warriors are 1-3 as WAC road dog, losing away games by 14-44-23-6 points. Aggies are 3-0-1 as WAC favorite.
Kansas won six of last seven games vs Texas A&M, winning last three visits here by 6-10-17 points; Jayhawks are 10-0 in Big 12, 2-2-1 as a road favorite, winning away games by 12-23-2-6-12 points, with two of the wins in OT (K-State/Colorado). Aggies are 5-0 at home in Big 12, are on 6-game win streak- they're 2-1 as a Big 12 underdog this season.
Western Carolina is 3-5 in last eight games, 3-9 vs spread in last twelve; Catamounts (-16) beat NC-Greensboro 79-69 Jan 14, making 8-17 from arc. WCU's defense has slipped- they allowed 81.7 ppg in its last three games. Spartans haven't played in week (WCU played Saturday); they lost last three games, by 8-18-6 points, are 5-4 as SoCon dog (2-1 home)
Manhattan (+8.5) lost 88-85 at Fairfield Jam 10, despite forcing Stags to turn ball over 26 times; Fairfield shot 56.5% from floor, 7-11 from arc. Stags split last six games after 7-2 MAAC start- they're 5-3 on MAAC road. Manhattan lost eight of last ten games; they're 2-5 in MAAC tilts at home, beating St Peter's and lowly Marist.
St Peter's (+6.5) won 77-66 at Rider Jan 15, shooting 51% from floor to offset 21 turnovers; Peacocks are 2-3 as home favorite, but won five of last six home games, with wins by 12-4-5-28-1; they've been off for 8 days after last game was postponed. Rider is 4-3 as MAAC road dog, winning last two road games, despite being 8-point underdogs in both.
Austin Peay (-1) won 66-64 in OT at Jacksonville State Jan 23, holding Gamecocks to 38% from floor; Governors are 6-1 at home in OVC, 3-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 5-13-18-2-1-4 points. Cocks lost three of last four games, are 3-1 as OVC road dog, losing away tilts by 2-12-24-1-19 points, with only win at lowly Tenn-Martin.
Tennessee State won last two games after 1-11 start in OVC; they lost 61-56 at Tennessee Tech Jan 23 (+6), shooting just 31.5% for the night, 6-24 from arc. Tigers are 2-2 as OVC home favorite. Third game in five nights for Tech squad that lost three of last four games, and lost five of seven OVC road games- they're 3-5 as OVC underdog, 2-3 on the road.
Maryland is 4-0 as ACC home favorite, winning home games by 9-24-22-21 points; Terps are 8-4 in last dozen games vs Virginia, 5-1 in last six played here, winning last two by 10-6 points. Cavaliers lost four of last six games, scoring 59-61-55 points in last three; they're 2-1-1 as an ACC road underdog, losing by 12 at Wake, 6 at Virginia Tech.
Tips and Trends
Connecticut Huskies at Villanova Wildcats
Huskies: Connecticut is struggling mightily, as they've lost 5 of their past 6 games SU. A perfect example of their season to date is their last game, where they lost by double digits at home in a game they were favored by 7 PTS. The Huskies are 14-11 SU and 9-14 ATS this season. In the past 6 games that the Huskies have struggled in, they've failed to score more than 69 PTS. Connecticut is winless on the road this season, going 0-6 SU and 3-3 ATS. The Huskies are 4-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Today marks only the 2nd time this season the Huskies have been a double digit underdog. In their last road game, they won ATS as exactly 10 point underdogs against Syracuse. The Huskies only scored 48 PTS in their last game, their lowest point total since 2002. G Jerome Dyson leads a group of 4 Huskies averaging double digits in PTS. Dyson averages 18.8 PPG this season, and has scored more than 20 PTS in a game 11 times this season.
Huskies are 6-2 ATS last 8 games following a double digit loss at home.
Under is 10-4 last 14 road games.
Key Injuries - C Jonathan Mandeldove (grades) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 71
Wildcats (-10, O/U 157): Villanova won both their games SU this week after losing to Georgetown recently. Villanova is 22-2 SU and 16-7 ATS this season, currently ranking them 4th in the nation. A huge reason for their overall success this season has been their home record. The Wildcats are 11-0 SU and 7-3 ATS at home this season. Villanova has been a double digit home favorite in all but 2 of their 11 games this season. Villanova is 6-2 ATS as a double digit home favorite, having lost both of their last games ATS in this specific scenario. The Wildcats are 11-1 SU in conference play, which leads the Big East conference. As mentioned earlier, Villanova is undefeated at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 18.6 PPG this season. Villanova averages 85.4 PPG this season, with much credit going to G Scottie Reynolds. Reynolds averages 19 PPG this season, and is 168 PTS away from becoming the all time scoring leader in Villanova history.
Wildcats are 8-3 ATS last 11 home games.
Over is 14-4 last 18 overall.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 88 (SIDE of the Day)
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas A&M Aggies
Jayhawks (-7.5, O/U 143): Kansas has won 10 straight games SU since their lone loss this season to Tennessee. Kansas has won each of their past 3 games by double digits, leading to a record of 24-1 SU. The #1 team in the country is so good we have to look at margin of victory to get a sense of how good this team truly is. The Jayhawks are 9-1 SU and 4-5-1 ATS in both true road games and neutral court settings this season. Kansas is 2-2 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Jayhawks are only 1-4 ATS in their past 5 games heading into tonight. This Jayhawks offense is explosive, as they've only been held under 70 PTS in 2 of their 25 games. The Jayhawks have scored 80 PTS or more in 7 of their past 10 games. 4 different Jayhawks players average double digits in PTS, led by star G Sherron Collins. Collins averages 15.4 PPG, and a team high 4.3 APG. C Cole Aldrich averages 11.4 PPG and a team high 10.1 RPG this season.
Jayhawks are 1-4 ATS last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Under is 7-3 last 10 road games.
Key Injuries - G CJ Henry (tailbone) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 77 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Aggies: Texas A&M might be playing their best basketball of the season currently, as they have won 4 straight games both SU and ATS. The Aggies are 18-6 SU for the season, and are sure to be ranked nationally by the time the games starts tonight. Texas AM is a perfect 13-0 SU at home, including a record of 5-4 ATS this season. Only 2 opponents have scored 70 or more PTS when playing at Texas AM, and both of those times came in their 2 most recent home games. Today marks the 1st time this season the Aggies will be the listed underdog at home this season. The Aggies are 5-3 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Aggies are 7-3 SU in conference play, tied for 2nd in the Big 12. Offensively, there isn't a single current player that averages more than 10 PPG for the Aggies. G Derrick Roland leads current Aggies players in scoring with 10.5 PPG. F Bryan Davis averages 10.4 PPG and a team high 7.6 RPG this season.
Aggies are 5-1 ATS last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 5-1 last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - G Derrick Roland (leg) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 72