Monday's Best Basketball Bets
Syracuse Orange at Villanova Wildcats (-3.5, 135)
The Wildcats love to face the Syracuse 2-3 zone defense. Villanova is 4-1 SU and ATS in their past five meetings with the Orange, cracking the 80 point mark in all the victories.
Included in those wins is an 83-72 triumph at the Carrier Dome earlier this year. In the victory, Villanova was out-rebounded, but had no trouble getting any looks it wanted. The Wildcats were a white-hot 11-of-24 from beyond the arc and penetrated at will, finishing 22-of-24 at the free throw line as Syracuse committed 19 fouls to their 10.
"Zone is like playing man. Their zone is not unstoppable," said Villanova guard Corey Fisher, who had 16 points, seven assists and three rebounds in the earlier meeting. "You're going to look bad sometimes and you can look good sometimes. We're going to keep being aggressive no matter if we look good or bad. We're going to play hard."
Fisher, who is coming off a career-high 34 points at DePaul this weekend, figures to have another huge game up his sleeve against the zone. His coach plans on giving him the green light to fire away.
"We made shots," Villanova coach Jay Wright said. "You play against the zone, you make shots you've got a chance. If you're not making shots, you're in trouble."
Lucky for the Wildcats, their shots are falling.
Pick: Villanova
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks (-18, 144.5)
Nothing has motivated the Jayhawks this season like a home loss to Texas. Since the team’s streak of 69 straight wins at Allen Field House was snapped, Kansas has reeled off four straight wins in the Phogg, all by an average of 22.5 points, easily covering a double-digit spread each time out.
“I think we are closer than we have ever been,” Kansas coach Bill Self said. “I think we like each other a lot. I think we genuinely care for each other. I think at this point of the season, we’ve been through enough I can say we have kind of become a team. Hopefully we are not close to the team we can become, but I think we are much further along than we were three to four weeks ago.”
And if the Pokes are to pull off the upset, it will take by far their best performance on the road this season.
Oklahoma State is a horrific 2-7 on the road this season and has lost its past to away games by a combined 29 points at Texas A&M and Nebraska.
"We've got to stay positive," Cowboys coach Travis Ford said. "We've got to keep our guys' heads up and keep competing."
That won’t be enough against Kansas.
Pick: Kansas
Syracuse at Villanova: What Bettors Need to Know
By Marc Lawrence
Syracuse Orange at Villanova Wildcats (-3.5, 135.5)
A battle for key positioning in the Big East tips off at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia where Villanova (21-6, 9-5) hosts Syracuse (22-6, 9-6) on ESPN Monday night.
Refuse to lose
After dropping close-call decisions to Pittsburgh and Rutgers, Villanova bounced back with a three-point victory at Seton Hall Tuesday and a two-point overtime decision at DePaul Saturday.
Senior guard Corey Fisher scored a career-high 34 points against the Blue Demons, nailing the tying 3-pointer with six seconds left in regulation.
"I was just trying to make plays on defense," Fisher said. "We weren't worried too much about offense. We were just trying to play hard.”
Maalik Wayns added 17 points, Mouphtaou Yarou snared 15 rebounds and the Wildcats escaped with a hard-fought win over the Big East's last-place team.
After starting the 2010 campaign on a 16-1 winning note, Villanova enters Monday’s game 5-5 in its last 10 games.
A.P.B.
Corey Stokes, the Wildcats’ second-leading scorer, missed his third straight game Saturday because of a turf toe injury on his left foot.
Coach Jay Wright is hoping he will be ready for Monday’s contest.
"It's just hard to score," Wright said. "Corey Stokes is always a guy that you know is just going to stretch the defense. Even if he's not making shots, they're going to guard him no matter how far out he is, and it creates space for everybody. Without him, anybody else on our team, they'll just say, 'Go ahead, let those guys beat us."'
Orange juiced
Like Villanova, Syracuse emerged victorious in overtime Saturday, holding off Rutgers, 84-80.
The Orange concentrated at the free-throw stripe where they canned 34 of 47 free throws.
Jim Boeheim’s bunch entered the game ranked 280th out of 335 in free-throw shooting at 64.9 percent.
Junior forward Kris Joseph, who scored six of his 21 points in the extra session, acknowledged the extraordinary effort.
“We got them in the bonus early in both halves," said Joseph, who made 10 of 12 free throws. "I feel like we went to the basket stronger and the refs were making the right calls."
Sophomore point guard Brandon Triche chipped in with 17 points and was 9 for 9 on free throws.
“I think that's the first time we've ever done that, and I don't think it had anything to do with penetration,” said Triche. “We got a lot of rebounds, and that really helped."
Not so Fab
He was the No.1 center in the 2010 class. A McDonald’s All-American.
Naturally, high expectations followed.
Instead, 7-foot Syracuse C Fab Melo has not lived up to his name.
Melo is averaging 2.04 points, 1.8 rebounds and 9.8 minutes per game.
The big guy returned for a one-minute token appearance Saturday against Rutgers after missing the previous two games. He’s played a total of three minutes in the Orange’s last four games.
"His Achilles’ has been sore for a couple weeks and he's having trouble getting up and down the court like we need him to," Boeheim said. "That's held him back."
The good news is the injury is a convenient excuse. Otherwise, the big Brazilian has been a big bust.
In this series
• Syracuse is 5-10 SU and ATS the last 15 meetings.
• Villanova is 10-4 ATS when both teams are off a win.
• The visiting team is 16-6 ATS the last 22 games.
Tale of the tape
According to Covers.com College Basketball Statistics, here is a breakdown of how each team ranks among 345 others in three pivotal stat categories, namely Offensive Field Goal Percentage, Defensive Field Goal Percentage and Rebound Margin this season:
Offensive FG Percentage
Syracuse 46.7 – No. 37
Villanova 44.7 - No. 111
Defensive FG Percentage
Syracuse 39.5 – No. 19
Villanova 39.5 – No. 18
Rebound Margin
Syracuse +3.4 - No. 65
Villanova +6.9 - No. 12
Dimestore
Syracuse is 13-7 SU and ATS as a dog since 1990 under Boeheim when playing with same season loss revenge of 10 or more points.
Villanova is 5-9 SU and 4-9-1 ATS under Wright against opponents with same season loss revenge of 10 or more points.
NCAA Betting Preview: Syracuse Orange at Villanova
By: Willie Bee
Down the stretch they come, and a big question now is will any team step up the Big East and serve notice that it is the squad to beat in the conference tourney and NCAA's? Pittsburgh still owns a somewhat comfortable two-game lead at the top of the pack, but after the Panthers' loss to St. John's on Saturday and Notre Dame was soundly defeated at West Virginia, even their positions as 1-2 in the conference seem vulnerable.
The Villanova Wildcats and Syracuse Orange will each try to take first steps towards a strong closing run on Monday when the rivals meet at The Pavilion. ESPN will have the broadcast starting at 4 p.m. (PT).
Villanova (21-6 straight up, 12-12 against the spread) survived Saturday's game at DePaul, but just barely in a 77-75 overtime win. Favored by a dozen, the Wildcats needed a three-pointer from Corey Fisher in the waning seconds of regulation to tie the contest and force extra play when Fisher would rise to the occasion again with seven of his team's 15 OT points.
It was all part of a huge game for the senior who tallied a personal-best 34 points, hitting 11-of-18 field goals against just one turnover on the afternoon. Mouphtaou Yarou contributed a double-double to the 'Nova attack, scoring 12 and pulling down 15 rebounds, eight of them on the offensive end of the floor that helped the Wildcats survive a 26-for-65 shooting day as a team.
The win capped a 2-0 week for Villanova, both victories on the road in less than impressive fashion over Seton Hall and DePaul by a combined five points. The loss at the betting window left the Wildcats 1-7 versus the NCAA odds in their last eight games, going 4-4 straight up in that span.
Equally unimpressive for bettors recently, Syracuse (22-6 SU, 10-16 ATS) also struggled to get past a lesser opponent in overtime on Saturday, slipping by Rutgers in the Carrier Dome, 84-80. Oddsmakers listed the Orange as 12-point home favorites, and anyone who played 'Cuse in the minus-800 vicinity on the money line needed a lopsided day at the free-throw line to cash their tickets.
Syracuse scored 34 of its points from the charity stripe where the Orange held a 47-14 advantage in attempts over the Scarlett Knights. Rick Jackson had seven of Syracuse's 11 blocks, adding 18 points and 12 rebounds. C.J. Fair made a big contribution as well, coming off the bench to play 37 minutes with 17 points and eight boards.
The failure to cover the spread sent Orange backers into the red for the third time in four games, and seventh of the last 10.
Villanova went to the Carrier Dome on Jan. 22 as a 5½-point underdog and left with an 83-72 win over Syracuse. The Orange scored the first bucket of the game, the only time they led, and the Wildcats consistently frustrated Syracuse's 2-3 zone to take an 11-point lead into the locker room. 'Nova shot well (25-for-50) from the field, pushing the ball on offense to help negate the Orange's defense, and was nearly flawless from the line converting 22 of its 24 attempts.
Fab Melo's status for Monday's game remains up in the air. The big freshman has played just a few seconds over three minutes in Syracuse's last four games, and remains in Jim Boeheim's doghouse for the present. He saw limited action in the home loss to Villanova earlier this season, scoring one bucket and grabbing a pair of boards in eight minutes.
Corey Stokes remains a question mark for Villanova as he battles through a turf toe injury. The senior was leading the team in scoring (14.6 PPG) before missing the last three games. Maalik Wayns has started in his place and seen his scoring average drop a smidge in his new role, 13.4 PPG on the season compared to 11.7 in the last three games.
Villanova remains at home for Saturday's matchup with the St. John's Red Storm, then takes to the road for its final two regular season contests at Notre Dame (Feb. 28) and Pitt (March 5). Syracuse will be at Georgetown next Saturday then idle for a week before closing the regular season at home versus DePaul.
College Basketball Knowledge
Villanova (+5.5) made 11-24 from arc in 83-72 win at Syracuse Jan 22, but Stokes (4-11 from arc 1/22) missed last few games, and Wildcats are struggling (4-4 in last 8 games) with last three all decided by 3 or less points. Big East home favorites of 4 or less points are 17-11 vs spread. Syracuse is 2-3 in last five road games, 3-7 vs spread in last 10 overall.
Green Bay (+8) upset Valparaiso 63-61 Jan 23, holding Valpo to 38.2% from floor, but Phoenix lost its last five games, with three of last four by 1 or 2 points. Horizon home teams are 12-8 vs spread if the number is 3 or less points. Crusaders split last six road games; quick turnaround after nationally televised win Saturday with Dick Vitale in their gym.
Kansas covered its last four home games since Texas loss, winning by 24-17-23-26 points. Oklahoma State lost three in row, six of last eight games, losing tough one at home by point to Aggies Saturday night; OSU is 1-5 as Big 12 road dog, losing away games by 23-4-19-1-11-18 points. Double digit home favorites are 8-9 vs spread in Big 12 play.
Charleston won its last six games (5-0-1 vs spread); they were up 28 at half on Vermont Saturday; Cougars are 5-2-1 as SoCon home favorite, winning home games by 9-8-21-29-9-25-19-18 points. Samford lost its last four games; they're 1-5 as road dog, losing away games by 13-5-19-38-6-22 points. SoCon home favorites of more than 13 points are 11-4.
Furman (-11) crushed Chattanooga 85-59 at home Jan 22, holding Mocs to 34% from floor, 3-22 from arc; Paladins won five of last six overall, but they split last six road games. SoCon home underdogs of less than 6 points are 7-12 vs spread. Mocs didn't play Saturday; they lost last two games by 14-10 points, failed to cover last four games as an underdog.
Western Carolina (-12) beat NC-Greensboro 83-73 at home Feb 5, going 11-21 from arc. UNCG is 7-1-2 vs spread in last 10 games, losing 99-90 Saturday (+7) when Elon made 16-34 behind arc; Spartans won three of last four home games. SoCon home underdogs of less than 6 points are 7-12 vs spread. Western won its last five games, by 16-10-22-5-7.
Kent State lost last two games, allowing 86-73 points, after having won previous six games; they're 3-3 on MAC road. Western Michigan won its last three games, by 2-12-3 points; they're 4-1 at home in conference, with wins by 7-17-2-2 points and a loss to Buffalo. MAC home teams are 10-7-1 vs spread when spread is less than 3 points.
Third road game in six days for Central Florida squad that is just 3-9 in C-USA; their last six games were all decided by 7 or less points. UCF is 1-2 as road dog, losing away games by 5-17-16-7-5 points. UTEP is 3-2 as home favorite, winning home games by 10-23-4-10-12 points. C-USA home favorites of 5+ points are 11-23-1 vs spread this season.
Tips and Trends
Syracuse Orange at Villanova Wildcats
ORANGE: Syracuse has really struggled against Villanova, as they've lost 4 of their last 5 meetings against them. The Orange even lost earlier this season at home to the Wildcats 72-83. Syracuse is 22-6 SU and 10-16 ATS overall this season. The Orange is 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS in true road games this year. Syracuse is 2-3 SU and ATS as the listed underdog this season. F Kris Joseph is averaging a team high 15 PPG this season, as well as 4.9 RPG for the Orange. F Rick Jackson is averaging a double double this year, 13 PPG and a team high 11.2 RPG. G Scoop Jardine is averaging 12.2 PPG and a team high 5.9 APG this year. The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. Syracuse is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. The Orange are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Syracuse is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Orange are 3-7 ATS last 10 games against the Big East.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - F Fab Melo (personal) is questionable.
Projected Score: 70
WILDCATS: (-3.5, O/U 135) Villanova lost their last home game they played against Pittsburgh, so they are anxious to get back on the court. The Wildcats have won their last 2 games SU, both on the road in conference play. Villanova is 21-6 SU and 11-12-1 ATS overall this season, as they are ranked 14th in the nation. The Wildcats are 13-2 SU and 7-5-1 ATS in home games this season. Villanova is 6-9 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. Guard play is the Wildcats greatest strength this year, as they have arguably the best set of guards in the nation. G Corey Fisher is averaging team highs of 16.3 PPG and 5.0 APG this year. G Corey Stokes is averaging 14.6 PPG and 3.4 RPG this season. The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. Villanova is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. Villanova is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the Big East.
Wildcats are 7-3 ATS last 10 games following a SU win.
Under is 5-0 last 5 home games.
Key Injuries - G Corey Stokes (toe) is probable.
Projected Score: 73 (OVER-Total of the Day)
Oklahoma St. Cowboys at Kansas Jayhawks
COWBOYS: Oklahoma St. has seen their season slip away from them over their past 8 games, as they've lost 6 of them SU. The Cowboys are 16-10 SU and 10-10-1 ATS overall this year. The Cowboys have had recent success against Kansas, so they will take that confidence to the floor tonight. Oklahoma St. is 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in true road games this year. The Cowboys are 4-6-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Oklahoma St. is 0-1 ATS as a double digit underdog overall this year. F Marshall Moses is averaging a team high 14.1 PPG and 7.4 RPG overall this year. G Keiton Page is averaging 13.8 PPG this season for the Cowboys. The Cowboys are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. Oklahoma St. is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. Oklahoma St. is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning SU record. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Cowboys are 0-4 ATS last 4 games against the Big 12.
Over is 5-2 last 7 games following a SU loss.
Key Injuries - F Darrell Williams (suspension) is out.
Projected Score: 59
JAYHAWKS: (-17, O/U 144.5) Kansas lost their #1 national ranking last week, as they lost to Kansas St. The Jayhawks are still contending for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas is 25-2 SU and 14-11 ATS overall this year. The Jayhawks are 15-1 SU and 8-6 ATS in home games this season. Kansas is 12-6 ATS as a double digit favorite this year. F Marcus Morris is averaging a team high 16.7 PPG for the Jayhawks this year. F Markieff Morris is averaging 13.3 PPG and a team high 8.4 RPG this season. Kansas will certainly be focused tonight, considering they have lost 2 of the past 3 meetings against Oklahoma St. The Jayhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%. Kansas is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Big 12 Conference. The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Kansas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Jayhawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 Monday games.
Jayhawks are 6-1 ATS last 7 games overall.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Key Injuries - F Thomas Robinson (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 83 (SIDE of the Day)
Big Monday Hoops
By Chris David
ESPN is back on the hardwood with another “Big Monday” installment tonight, which is highlighted with conference battles in the Big East and Big 12. Since the network started this schedule in early January, we’ve witnessed 11 nationally televised games. In those affairs, the favorites have gone 8-3 straight up and 6-5 against the spread. Not surprisingly, the home team has also gone 8-3 over this span too. Total players watched the ‘under’ cash in the first seven, but the ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run. Will those trends continue or do we have some upsets brewing?
Let’s take a closer look.
Syracuse (22-6 SU, 10-16 ATS) at Villanova (21-6 SU, 10-11 ATS)
Gamblers start the week with a tough matchup from Philadelphia as the Orange and Wildcats meet for the second time this season. Villanova beat Syracuse 83-72 on Jan. 22 at the Carrier Dome as a 5 ½-point road underdog. Jay Wright’s squad was on fire in the road win, hitting 50 percent from the field, including 11 bombs from 3-point land. Helping the Wildcats in that win was guard Corey Stokes (16 points), but he’s missed the last three games for ‘Nova with a toe injury. He’s listed as ‘probable’ for tonight against the Orange.
Since Villanova captured the big win at ‘Cuse, the team owns a pedestrian 4-4 record. More importantly, the school has burnt gamblers with a 1-7 ATS mark during this eight-game span. To give Wright a little credit, three of the four losses came by three points or less. Still, recent non-covers against Seton Hall (60-57) and DePaul (77-75) shouldn’t make you feel confident laying points with the ‘Cats.
Betting on Syracuse lately hasn’t been a golden proposition either. Since Jim Boeheim’s team started 18-0, they’ve gone 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS over the last 10. The Orange needed overtime to beat Rutgers (84-80) at home on Saturday and probably deserved to lost the game outright. In Big East play, Syracuse has gone 4-3 on the road.
Villanova splits up its home schedule between its on-campus arena and the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. This will be the fourth Big East clash and seventh overall game played in the city. Wright’s squad has gone 5-1 both SU and ATS and the ‘under’ has posted a 5-1 mark in the first six games played at this venue.
The Wildcats opened as 3 ½-point favorites and the number has spiked to four at a few betting shops. The total is hovering between 135 and 136 points.
After this game, Villanova finishes the regular season with three brutal games. After hosting St. John’s this weekend, the team finishes with road tilts at Notre Dame and Pittsburgh. Syracuse only has two contests left; Saturday at Georgetown and then Mar. 5 at home against DePaul.
Oklahoma State (16-10 SU, 10-11 ATS) at Kansas (25-2 SU, 13-9 ATS)
The Jayhawks started last week with a humbling loss (68-84) on Monday to intrastate rival Kansas State. Kansas was never in the game and the Wildcats shot a crazy percentage (56%) from the field in the victory, plus they went 24-of-29 from the charity stripe. Fortunately, Bill Self’s team bounced back over the weekend as they clobbered Colorado 89-63 from Lawrence. Most pundits have the Jayhawks penciled in as a No. 1 seed in the upcoming tournament, provided they don’t lose any of their final four games and don’t get knocked off early in the Big 12 tournament.
A possible road bump for Kansas takes place tonight in Lawrence when Oklahoma State visits Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks have gone 15-1 SU and 8-6 ATS at home this year, with the lone loss coming against Texas (63-74) on Jan. 22.
The Cowboys had aspirations of making the Big Dance this March too but a recent three-game losing skid has hurt their chances. Travis Ford’s team has gone 3-8 SU and 3-7 ATS outside of Stillwater this season and that includes a 0-6 mark in conference play.
Are you surprised Kansas is laying 17 points tonight? The past history doesn’t mean much here with the turnover in college players but the home team has won and covered the last five meetings in this series.
The total is hovering between 144 and 145 points for tonight. The Jayhawks have the offense to light up anybody but the Cowboys’ attack is averaging 62.3 PPG on the road, which has helped the ‘under’ go 9-4.
Make a not that Oklahoma State forward Marshall Moses (flu) is listed as ‘questionable.’ He’s the only threat inside for the ‘Boys, leading the team in scoring (14.3 PPG) and rebounds (7.3).
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