Monday's Best NCAAB Bet
Villanova Wildcats at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4, 139)
To say that Villanova is in a tailspin would be an understatement.
The team know for its three-point shooting, trapping defense and wide-open attack have failed to crack the 68-point barrier in four of the past six games. Not surprisingly, the Wildcats are 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS over that span. And did we mention the victories are a two-point overtime win against an awful DePaul team and a three-point defeat of a terrible Seton Hall side?
"Honestly, I feel like we're getting - believe it or not - a little bit better, but not good enough for this league," Villanova coach Jay Wright said. "I don't think we're getting worse. If we didn't play a Syracuse, a St. John's, a Pitt, maybe it might show. But it's not good enough right now for this league."
And it’s not helping Villanova that star guard Corey Fisher picked a fine week to take off. In losses to Syracuse and St. John’s – both at home – the senior stud was 4-for-26 from the field and 0-of-16 from beyond-the-arc.
"He got good looks," Wright said. "I don't know. I really don't. The best thing that we can tell him is to keep shooting it. We have confidence in him. We're going to ride him."
The Irish will have no problem with that approach.
At home this season, Notre Dame is 16-0 SU and 7-4 ATS in lined games. Over the past six weeks the team has been especially good in South Bend, posting a 4-1 ATS mark that includes a win over Louisville and Cincinnati.
Pick: Notre Dame
NCAA Betting Preview: Villanova at Notre Dame
By: Willie Bee
Whoever is assigned the task of putting together the video for the 2010-11 Villanova Wildcats basketball season might want to consider Paul Simon's Slip Slidin' Away for the theme music. A preseason No. 6 according to the ESPN/USA Today rankings, Jay Wright's squad hung around in the top 10 through the middle of January before hitting a wall.
A 16-1 start for the Wildcats has turned sour with just five wins in their last 12 trips to the floor that includes consecutive home losses to Syracuse and St. John's as they enter the final week of the regular season.
If Villanova (21-8 straight up, 12-14 against the spread) is going to regroup and get back on track, it's going to have to come away from home the rest of the way. First up will be a trip to South Bend to meet the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Monday. ESPN has the broadcast starting at 4 p.m. (PT).
The latest setback for 'Nova came Saturday versus St. John's, a team on the rise in the Big East to contrast the Wildcats' slide. Oddsmakers lined Villanova 6½-point favorites and the game was all but over in the first five minutes as the Red Storm bolted their way to an early 18-4 lead en route to the 81-68 triumph. Paced by Dwight Hardy's career-best 34 points, including 5-of-9 from long range, St. John's outplayed the Wildcats in every phase of the game on both ends of the court.
The end result was the sixth consecutive loss for Villanova backers with the Wildcats failing to beat the NCAA odds for the ninth time in 10 games.
While 'Nova was dropping its second straight, Notre Dame (23-5 SU, 14-10 ATS) was winning its second straight, beating Seton Hall by a 60-48 score as 9½-point chalk. The Pirates possibly caught the Irish looking ahead to Monday's game early on as Seton Hall went to the locker room up by three, 27-24. A 13-zip run in the second half helped Notre Dame avoid the upset in front of the home faithful.
Seniors Tim Abromaitis and Ben Hansbrough combined for 43 of the 60 Irish points, adding 15 rebounds between them. The win left Notre Dame a perfect 16-0 at home this season, 8-4 ATS in the 12 lined games at Joyce Center.
Villanova has won and covered the last two in this series, one at home and one here in South Bend. Last season's 90-72 victory for the Wildcats came as 11-point home favorites; they were three-point underdogs when they topped Notre Dame on its home floor two years ago, 77-60. Both games finished below the total.
The Fighting Irish will close out their regular season slate Saturday at UConn, a team they beat at home in early January, 73-70, just missing the four-point cover. 'Nova remains on the Big East highway for a tough contest at Pittsburgh the same day. The Wildcats fell on their home floor to the Panthers on Feb. 12 as 2½-point chalk, 57-54.
Texas, Kansas State in Big 12 betting showdown
By: Willie Bee
A pair of Big 12 clubs coming off opposite Saturday results collide in Austin on Monday night when the Texas Longhorns host the Kansas State Wildcats.
Texas (24-5 straight up, 17-7 against the spread) returned home from Colorado red-faced following a 91-89 loss to the Buffaloes on Saturday, a game in which the Longhorns upchucked a huge 22-point first-half lead. Lined as six-point road chalk, Texas took a 48-33 lead into the locker room and then fell victim to Alec Burks in the final 20 minutes. Burks tallied 33 points to lead all scorers and grabbed 10 rebounds to record his third double-double for the season, all coming in Big 12 action at home.
"We didn't run plays, we didn't screen. We went away from what we were doing in the first half," Texas forward Jordan Hamilton said after the loss. Hamilton, the Longhorns' leading scorer on the season at 18.8 PPG, had 21 points as one of five Texas players to score at least 12, but was a miserable 7-of-24 from the field, 5-of-13 from three-point range.
The defeat was the second straight on the road for Texas after dropping a 70-67 decision at Nebraska as 6½-point chalk a week earlier. Colorado's 91 points marked a season-high against a Longhorns defense that has averaged giving up just 60.7, 19th in the nation. Both of the recent road setbacks went 'over' the total where Texas is 16-7 'under' this campaign.
The defeat also dropped Texas from the sole lead in the Big 12 standings and into a tie for the top spot with Kansas, each with 12-2 conference marks.
As Texas was busy choking one away on the road, Kansas State (20-9 SU, 10-13 ATS) was in the midst of its fourth consecutive win and cover with an 80-70 home win versus Missouri. Frank Martin's Wildcats jumped out quickly to take a 10-0 lead before the Tigers clawed their way back into the contest.
The game was close through most of the second half with K-State nursing a 58-57 lead with a little over seven minutes remaining. Rodney McGruder, Jacob Pullen and the rest of the 'Cats then took over to outscore Mizzou 22-13 the rest of the way. The late surge lifted Kansas State to the cover as 4½-point chalk.
Last season when the two schools met at Bramlage Coliseum, Texas was No. 1 in the land. Kansas State, favored by a single point, promptly hung a 71-62 defeat on the 'Horns who for all intents and purposes never recovered. The game was very reminiscent to the Wildcats' 84-68 win over then-No. 1 Kansas two weeks ago in Manhattan, with K-State six-point home 'dogs in that contest.
Kansas State has won three of the last four regular season meetings with Texas, including victories both on the floor and at the window the last two times the Wildcats have traveled to Austin. Texas last topped K-State at home in Feb. 2005, a 75-72 overtime victory.
ESPN will broadcast Monday's game with the tip slated for a little past 6 p.m. (PT). The telecast follows the Big East battle between Villanova and Notre Dame.
The Longhorns close their regular season schedule Saturday at Baylor. Texas popped the Bears Feb. 12 in Austin, 69-60, as 11-point chalk to snap a three-game losing skid against Baylor. Kansas State will head home following this game to host Iowa State on Saturday. The Wildcats eked out an 86-85 win in Ames on Feb. 5 as a 4½-point road favorite.
Big Monday Hoops
By Judd Hall
It’s going to be a downright quiet Monday evening for college hoops fans with just five games scheduled to tip off. That tends to happen as the conference gear up for the respective tournaments. Luckily two of those games will be televised to give us a few hours of entertainment to keep us busy.
It all starts in South Bend, where the Fighting Irish play host to Villanova (21-8 straight up, 11-14-1 against the spread) on ESPN at 7:00 p.m. EST. The Fighting Irish are listed as four-point home favorites with a total of 139.
The Wildcats come into this game with a 9-7 mark in Big East play. While that doesn’t sound like such a bad record to have in a 16-team conference, Jay Wright’s team is licking some wounds right now. Villanova has dropped two straight games. The ‘Cats went ice cold from the floor in a 69-64 loss at home to Syracuse on Feb. 21, which isn’t that terrible a loss. What was awful was getting decimated 81-68 by St. John’s on Saturday as 6 ½-point home favorites.
Villanova’s poor shooting continued in this game, hitting just 40 percent from the field (season average through 2/24 is 44%). And the Red Storm dominated the boards with a 37-23 rebounding advantage.
Corey Stokes had 20 points and a pair of boards for ‘Nova in a losing effort. Dwight Hardy killed the Wildcats in this game with 34 points for the Johnnies. Notre Dame (23-5 SU, 13-10 ATS) comes into this primetime contest with a two-game win streak. The Irish’s most recent triumph coming in a 60-48 win over Seton Hall as 9 ½-point home favorites on Saturday. It’s the first ATS cover Mike Brey’s team has had since a 78-55 win (-6) at South Florida on Feb. 12.
Tim Abromaitis shows how much hustle can play into winning a game by putting in 22 points and eight rebounds for Notre Dame. Ben Hansbrough was the only other member of the Fighting Irish to show up against the Pirates, scoring 21 points with seven boards and a pair of assists.
Villanova has plenty of reason to be confident in this game as they’ve won two straight against the Irish. That includes a 90-72 pasting for the Wildcats as 11-point home favorites back on Jan. 27. But Notre Dame is a much different team at home this season, evidenced by a 16-0 SU and 7-4 ATS record at the Joyce Center. Plus, the Fighting Irish are 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in their last three home dates against ‘Nova. The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in the last four head-to-head meetings.
The ‘over’ has cashed in five of Notre Dame’s last seven games this season. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ is 7-3 in the Wildcats’ past 10 contests.
From the Midwest we go down to the Lone Star State, where Texas (24-5 SU, 17-7 ATS) plays host to Kansas State (20-9 SU, 10-13 ATS) on ESPN at 9:00 p.m. EST. The Longhorns have been opened as 9 ½-point home favorites with a total of 135.
If you’re a fan of watching Frank Martin lose his marbles, then this has been your dream season. The Wildcats have tried his patience to no extent. Suspensions and off-the-court drama took its toll on K-State at the start of the Big XII campaign, opening up with a 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS record.
The Wildcats have bounced back in a big way at just the right time with a four-game SU and ATS winning streak. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has taken notice of their good works and posted them as the ninth-seed in the big dance.
K-State comes into this game off of a strong 80-70 win over Mizzou as a 4½-point home favorite last Saturday afternoon. The Tigers had a late 10-1 run to close out the first half, but the Martin’s club controlled this game for the most part. Jacob Pullen shined in the battle with 24 points, two boards and three helpers against Missouri.
The ‘Cats arguably played one of their best games against Missouri this past Saturday, hitting 52 percent of their shots with a 34-21 rebounding advantage. To give you an idea of how good that is, K-State is hitting 43.3 percent from the field this season. Plus, they’re usually holding just a 7.2 rebound margin against opponents this year to rank 13th nationally.
The Longhorns need a big effort in this contest after dropping two of their last three games. Those defeats both came on the road to Nebraska (-6.5, 70-67) on Feb. 19 and then just last Saturday at Colorado (-6, 91-89).
In that loss to the Buffaloes, Texas coughed away a comfortable 48-33 first half lead. That very same thing happened in the Longhorns’ loss at Nebraska, where they held a 33-26 advantage at halftime. J’Covan Brown and Jordan Hamilton both posted 21 points against the Buffs last Saturday. But they were enough to overcome Alec Burks and his 33 points and 10 rebounds for Colorado.
Some of you might be thinking that you’ve heard of this kind of slump for Texas before. That’s because you have heard this before…last season, to be exact. The ‘Horns closed out the 2009-2010 regular season with a 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS run. That translated into a quarterfinal exit in the Big XII tourney and first round against the Demon Deacons in the NCAA tournament. And that same kind of regular season closing slump happened in 2008-2009, going 1-2 SU and ATS before reaching the postseason.
That history of slumping bodes well for the Wildcats. Recent history is certainly on their side as they hold a 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS advantage of the Longhorns. The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four head-to-head battles.
Texas has gone 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in conference home games with the ‘under’ going an extremely impressive 6-1. Kansas State comes into this test having posted a 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS, but we must take account most of those games came in that opening slump. The ‘under’ went just 4-3 during that stretch for the Wildcats.
vegasinsider.com
Game of the day: Kansas State at Texas
By Marc Lawrence
Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns (-9.5, 135)
A suddenly reeling Texas Longhorns squad returns home to host resurgent Kansas State in a key Big 12 clash at the Frank Erwin Center Monday night.
HOUSE OF CARDS
Texas blew a big first-half lead and folded in a Big 12 road game for the second time in three games. The Longhorns fell 91-89 at Colorado on Saturday and the 91 points were the most surrendered by Texas this season.
As a result, the Longhorns (24-5, 12-2) fall into a first-pace tie with Kansas (27-2, 12-2) and it appears they are not likely to win their first outright league title since 1998.
The Buffaloes stormed back from a 22-point, first-half deficit and overcame a 48-33 halftime deficit behind Alec Burks' 33 points and Levi Knutson's 21. Texas shot just 29.4 percent in the second half.
A seven-point halftime lead at Nebraska vanished a week earlier in a 70-67 defeat. Despite the second-half meltdowns, Texas forward Jordan Hamilton is not concerned.
"It's not like we lost a ton-load of games. We've only lost two (conference) games," Hamilton said. "But I think it's good for us. We've just got to get back to the drawing board. We're not as good as we thought. Let me rephrase that: We didn't execute. That's what I meant to say.""
Longhorns coach Rick Barnes agreed.
"I really think it's very simple: the team that played for 40 minutes won the game," Barnes said. "I didn't feel like we had a real sense of urgency from the get-go.
“We didn't play with purpose, that was the problem. We got a lead early in the game and I've seen them evaporate quickly, but you can certainly help the cause by not making them defend and simply not executing. We didn't. We simply didn't execute."
Colorado outrebounded Texas 43-39 and outshot the 'Horns 53 percent to 42 percent.
The only other time this year the Longhorns have been outrebounded in conference play was their aforementioned loss at Nebraska last weekend.
BRACKETOLOGY
The loss doesn't kill Texas.
As the bracketology stands right now, if the Longhorns get a No. 1 seed they would be in Anaheim. A No. 2 seed could put them in San Antonio, which would be better for the team, fans and media alike.
ON THE PROWL
What a difference a month makes.
The Wildcats beat Missouri 80-70 in Manhattan on Saturday, their fourth win in a row and sixth in seven games since Wally Judge walked away four weeks ago.
KSU has taken on a totally new look and is playing like it, too. All the issues from before, from the suspensions and drama and quitting players, none of it matters now.
That’s because the Wildcats are approaching each game with a new attitude. And head coach Frank Martin is relishing the new work ethic of his young, re-molded squad.
“That’s what it’s about,” Martin says. “When you have a team, not (just) players.”
PULLEN IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
KSU leading scorer and star guard Jacob Pullen scored 24 points in Saturday’s win over Missouri, reaching a rare career milestone in the process. In addition, Curtis Kelly added 15 points and six rebounds for the born-again Wildcats (20-9, 8-6), who are battling Missouri (22-7, 8-6) for the fourth and final bye in the Big 12 tournament.
After being suspended midseason for the “crime” of accepting an offered discount on clothes, Pullen has come back with a vengeance. He joined Mike Evans to become one of two Kansas State players to go over the 2,000-point mark with Saturday’s performance.
What once looked like the face of one of the country’s most disappointing seasons, Pullen has become a poster boy for comeback-kids.
FROM THE DATABASE
Kansas State
•13-6 SU and 11-6-1 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS wins under Martin
• 1-5 ATS versus Big 12 foe off SU favorite loss under Martin
• The visiting team in Wildcats’ conference games is 2-12 ATS this season
Texas
• 4-0 SU and ATS versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win this season
• 10-2 SU and ATS versus greater than .680 opponent this season
• 5-5 SU and 1-8-1 ATS last 10 games in this series
TALE OF THE TAPE
Here is a breakdown of how each team ranks among 345 others in three pivotal stat categories, namely Offensive Field Goal Percentage, Defensive Field Goal Percentage and Rebound Margin this season:
Offensive FG Percentage
Kansas State 43.2 – No. 184
Texas 46.1 - No. 54
Defensive FG Percentage
Kansas State 42.3 – No. 112
Texas 37.3 – No. 2
Rebound Margin
Kansas State +7.5 - No. 10
Texas +6.1 - No. 16
DID YOU KNOW?
Texas has won 10 straight home games after surrendering 90 or more points in its last game.
College Basketball Knowledge
Notre Dame won nine of last ten games; they're 5-2 as Big East favorite at home, winning all eight home games by 14-3-15-8-5-7-10-12 points. Villanova is 2-0 as Big East underdog, but they're 4-6 SU last ten games, 1-9 vs spread, despite being favored in all ten. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 25-29 vs spread. Senior Night for Notre Dame, but this is a bigger game for a reeling Villanova squad. .
Kansas State won last two visits to Austin; their last three visits there were decided by total of 8 points. Texas is 4-3 as Big 12 home favorite, winning all seven home games, by 20-21-13-16-9-18-23 points. Single digit home favorites are 23-12-1 vs spread in Big 12 play. Kansas State won five of last six games; they are 2-4 as Big 12 underdog, losing road games by 14-16-8-24-2 points, with wins at Iowa State/Nebraska.
Idaho State (+13) lost 57-37 at Northern Colorado Jan 13, shooting 25% from floor, 2-20 from arc; Bengals are 3-2 in last five games, but lost last five times they scored less than 82 points, losing by 11-13-2-19 and 24 points. State is 5-6 as Big Sky underdog, 2-2 at home. Bears won five of last six games; they're 2-4-1 vs spread in last seven games as a favorite. Big Sky home underdogs are 13-8 vs spread this season.
Tips and Trends
Villanova Wildcats at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
WILDCATS: Villanova is looking to avoid their 3rd consecutive SU loss tonight. Such is life in the brutally difficult Big East Conference. Villanova is 21-8 SU and 11-14-1 ATS overall this season. The Wildcats were ranked 14th in the nation last week, but they might fall completely out of the rankings after last week's losses. The Wildcats are 7-3 SU and 3-6 ATS in true road games this season. Villanova is 2-0 ATS as the listed underdog this year. Villanova is 1-5 ATS after a loss against a conference rival. G Corey Fisher is averaging team highs of 15.5 PPG and 5 APG this season. G Corey Stokes is averaging 15.2 PPG and 3.3 RPG this year for Villanova. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Monday games. Villanova is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. Villanova is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Villanova is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against the Big East Conference.
Wildcats are 0-8 ATS last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Key Injuries - F Maurice Sutton (disciplinary) is questionable.
Projected Score: 64
FIGHTING IRISH: (-4, O/U 139) Notre Dame is having an outstanding season, but they are facing a nemesis tonight. The Irish have lost their past 2 games against Villanova SU and ATS. Notre Dame is 23-5 SU and 13-10 ATS overall this year. The Irish enter this week ranked 9th in the nation. Notre Dame hasn't lost at home this season, as they are 16-0 SU and 8-4 ATS. The Irish are 4-1 ATS as a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 PTS this season. G Ben HanXXXough is averaging Fighting Irish highs of 18 PPG and 4 APG this year. F Tim Abromaitis is averaging 14.9 PPG and 6.3 RPG this season. The Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. The Fighting Irish are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win. Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Fighting Irish are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS win. Notre Dame is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
Fighting Irish are 17-7 ATS last 24 games against the Big East Conference.
Under is 25-7 last 32 games following an ATS win.
Key Injuries - F Mike Broghammer (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 76 (SIDE of the Day)
Kansas St. Wildcats at Texas Longhorns
WILDCATS: Kansas St. is making a last ditch effort at making the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats are currently riding a 4 game SU winning streak, arguably one of the most impressive 4 game winning streaks by any team this season. The Wildcats are 20-9 SU and 10-13 ATS overall this year. Kansas St. is 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS in true road games this season. The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS as the listed underdog this year. Tonight represents the 2nd biggest spread the Wildcats have faced as the listed underdog this season. Kansas St. will take the court tonight with plenty of confidence, because of their current winning streak and the fact that they beat the Longhorns the last time they faced them. G Jacob Pullen is finally playing up to his All American expectations. as he single handily has his team on an extended winning streak. Pullen is averaging team highs of 19.7 PPG and 3.7 APG this year. G Rodney McGruder is averaging 11.2 PPG and a team high 6.2 RPG this season. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the Big 12 Conference. Kansas St. is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. Kansas St. is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS last 4 games overall.
Under is 17-7 last 24 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 58
LONGHORNS: (-9, O/U 135) Texas is coming off a shocking SU loss to Colorado, as they were a 6.5 underdog. In fact, the Longhorns have lost 2 of their last 3 games SU, each coming on the road. Texas isn't likely to be in a good mood as they take their home court tonight. The Longhorns are currently ranked 5th in the nation, thanks to a 24-5 SU and 17-7 ATS record this season. Texas is 16-1 SU and 8-4 ATS at home this year. The Longhorns are 12-7 ATS as the listed favorite this season. F Jordan Hamilton continues to enjoy a breakout season, as he's leading the Longhorns with 18.8 PPG and 7.5 RPG this year. G Cory Joseph is averaging 10.8 PPG and a team high 2.9 APG this season. The Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. Texas is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against a team with a winning SU record. The Longhorns are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Texas is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against the Big 12. The Longhorns are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 Monday games. Texas is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game.
Longhorns are 5-1 ATS last 6 home games against a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%.
Under is 8-0 last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record.
Key Injuries - F Alexis Wangmene (disciplinary) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 67 (UNDER-Total of the Day)