Monday's Best NCAAB Bet
New Mexico Lobos at Alabama Crimson Tide (-4.5, 128.5)
The Alabama Crimson Tide may be without one of their top players off the bench for a second straight game when they hook up with New Mexico in the NIT on Monday.
Sophomore forward Andrew Steele suffered a concussion in the SEC Tournament and sat out Alabama’s blowout of Coastal Carolina. He’s considered questionable for Monday’s game.
Steele’s numbers aren’t outstanding – five points and 2.6 rebounds over about 18 minutes per game – but he brings a lot more to the table for this Tide team, which was just 6-6 straight up while he was hurt this year and 16-5 after he came back.
"Andrew plays a big part in a leadership role," Alabama freshman point guard Trevor Releford told reporters of Steele. "He's like a coach on the floor. We're going to need him to get to the championship."
We’ll side with the Tide here but would feel a lot better about the bet if Steele plays.
Pick: Crimson Tide
College Basketball Knowledge
Missouri State won seven of its last 10 road games; four of their last five games stayed under total. Bears are 3-2 as an underdog but are dog for first time in over a month. Miami covered three of last four as favorite, but hasn't won consecutive games since early February. ACC favorites of 8 or less points at home are 6-10 vs spread. MVC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-8.
New Mexico won five of last six games, with four of last five staying under total; Lobos are without PG Gary- they're 3-2 in last five on road, including a win at BYU. Alabama hasn't lost at home this year- they are 10-1 vs spread in last 11 home games. MWC road underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-6 vs spread. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-6.
Oklahoma State lost its last nine true road games- their last six games overall stayed under total. Cowboys are 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as an underdog. Washington State lost by 5 at home to Kansas State in its only game vs Pac-10 foe. Seven of last nine Wazzu games went over the total. Big 12 single digit road underdogs are 8-13 vs spread. Pac-10 home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-5.
Rhode Island is 5-3 in its last eight road games, including winning by 4 at Richmond; five of last seven URI games went over total. Central Florida is 2-11-1 vs spread in its last 14 games as a favorite- after starting year 14-0, Knights are now 20-11. A-14 road underdogs of 7 or less points are 15-13 vs spread. C-USA home favorites of 7 or less points are 4-8.
Creighton (-12) beat Samford of SoCon 58-40 in its only game against Southern Conference foe this season; Bluejays covered their last five as a favorite- four of their last five games stayed under. Davidson won five of last six games; they're 5-5 this season as a dog. MVC home favorites of less than 8 points are 11-8 vs spread. SoCon single digit road underdogs are 14-6.
Evansville lost last five games away from home by 6-14-25-18-2 points; Purple Aces covered six of last nine games as an underdog. Boise State lost by 3 at Drake in December, its only game vs MVC foe; Broncos are 9-1 in last ten games, losing only by 8 to Utah State in WAC final. WAC single digit home favorites are 14-8 vs spread. MVC single digit road underdogs are 12-14.
Duquesne's 87-76 win at Montana last week was their second win in last seven games; Dukes lost four of last six road games. Well-coached Ducks will be prepared against Dukes' pressure- they split with Washington team that plays lot like Duquesne, only with better athletes. Pac-10 teams are an abysmal 4-16 vs spread this season in non-league games where spread is 3 or less points; A-14 teams are 18-18.
Northern Iowa had lost seven of eight games before pounding Rider by 34 (was 47-20 at half); Panthers covered two of last seven games when favored. MVC home favorites of less than 8 points are 11-8 vs spread. SMU blew 14-point halftime lead Saturday but nipped Jacksonville by a point, now has quick turnaround to road game here. C-USA road dogs of less than 8 points are 13-10.