Connecticut (18-15, 12-19 ATS) at Virginia Tech (24-8, 13-12-1 ATS)
After slipping past Northeastern in the opening round, UConn now travels to Blacksburg, Va, to take on Virginia Tech in the second round of the NIT.
The Huskies, losers of four straight coming in o the tournament, got 18 points from Jerome Dyson and edged Northeastern 59-57 Tuesday, coming up well short as seven-point favorites at home. UConn lost three in a row (SU and ATS) to close out the Big East regular season and then was embarrassed by St. John’s in the opening round of the conference tourney, losing 73-51 as a 4½-point chalk.
The Hokies delivered an 81-61 beating to Quinnipiac at home in Wednesday’s opening-round game, easily cashing as 13-point favorites. Malcolm Delaney led the way with 25 points, six assists and seven boards, while teammate Dorenzo Hudson chipped in with 19 points. Virginia Tech won its final two ACC regular-season games (SU and ATS), but got dropped in the first round of the conference tourney, losing 70-65 to Miami as a 3½-point favorite, ending its Big Dance hopes.
These teams have met seven times since 2001 with the Huskies holding a 6-1 (5-2 ATS) advantage. Last time they met was in 2004 when UConn scored a 96-60 win as a 14-point favorite.
The Huskies have cashed in six of their last eight as an underdog and eight of their last 10 after a straight-up win, however they are on ATS skids of 0-4 after a non-cover and 0-5 against winning teams. Virginia Tech is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 against Big East teams and 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference contests, but it is 0-4 ATS in its last four as a home chalk of less than seven points and 1-3-1 ATS in its last five after a straight-up win.
For UConn, the under is on several streaks, including 8-3 overall, 6-0 against ACC squads, 10-4 after a non-cover, 21-10 as an underdog and 19-8 as a road ‘dog. The Hokies have stayed below the posted number in seven of 10 as favorites, but they are on “over” streaks of 23-11 as a home favorite, 14-3 in non-conference action and 7-1 against Big East squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH
Dayton (21-12, 14-15-1 ATS) at Cincinnati (19-15, 10-19 ATS)
After limping to the finish line in the Atlantic 10, Dayton opened the NIT with a decisive win and now travels to Cincinnati for second-round action against the Bearcats.
The Flyers lost five of seven to close out the season, including a 78-73 setback to Xavier in the conference tourney, falling short as three-point pups. They were able to bounce back in the opening round of this event, crushing Illinois State 63-42, easily covering as 7½-point favorites. Dayton shot 48.1 percent from the floor as 11 players got in the scoring column, led by Chris Johnson’s 13 points and nine rebounds.
Cincinnati reached the quarterfinals of the Big East tourney before falling to eventual-champ West Virginia 54-51, cashing as an 8½-point ‘dog. On Wednesday the Bearcats routed Weber State 76-62 as a 9½-point favorite in the NIT’s opening round, getting 16 points and seven assists from Donta Vaughn and 14 points from Lance Stephenson.
These teams last met in the 2005 campaign when both were in the Atlantic 10, splitting two games within a 30-day period. Dayton scored a 75-66 win as a 9½-point pup only to have Cincinnati return the favor with an 81-63 win as a 7½-point chalk. The Bearcats are 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) in eight head-to-head meetings with the Flyers since 1998.
Dayton is 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference contests and 4-1 ATS in its last five against Big East squads, but it is on several ATS skids, including 2-7-1 overall, 0-4-1 on the road, 0-3-1 after a straight-up win and 1-6-1 against winning teams. Cincinnati is on a plethora of negative ATS streaks, including 7-19 overall, 3-13 at home, 18-39-2 as a home favorite, 16-37-1 as a favorite anywhere, 1-7 at home against teams with a losing record and 0-6 as a home favorite of less than seven points.
The Flyers are on “under” streaks of 7-0 in non-conference action, 5-2 as a road ‘dog and 7-3 after a spread-cover, but they’ve topped the total in five of their last six against Big East squads. The Bearcats have stayed below the number in five of six overall, seven of eight non-conference games and five of seven Monday contests, but they are on “over” runs of 7-2 against Atlantic 10 foes and 5-1 as a home favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DAYTON
NCAAB News and Notes
Rhode Island is 5-6 in last 11 games; they outscored Northwestern 26-7 from foul line in 76-64 first round win. Rams are 5-8 vs spread in last 13 games as favorite. Nevada is 4-10 in true road games this season, but did upset Shockers in Wichita- they're 5-6 vs spread as an underdog in '10.
Virginia Tech bitched about not being in NCAAs; they beat Seton Hall of Big East 103-94 in Cancun. UConn forced six turnovers in narrow home win vs Northeastern in first round, its first win in last five games; Huskies are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games as favorite.
Illinois lost six of last nine games; they're 2-0 vs MAC teams, beating No Illinois by 19, Western Michigan by 35. Kent State won 13 of last 15 games; they were clearly best team in MAC, got upset in tournament; Flashes came back from down 7 at half to beat Tulsa in the first round.
Cincinnati is 5-8 in last 13 games; they lost in double OT at Xavier in its only game vs A-14 foe this year. Dayton (+5.5) lost 71-65 to Big East's Villanova in November; Flyers are 4-6 in last ten games, 2-5 vs spread as an underdog this year. Bearcats covered one of last eight as a favorite.
Charleston was 13-27 from arc in win at Eastern Kentucky; EKU made 59% of its shots, though. VCU was 11-27 from arc in win at Geo Wash; they're 5-2 in last seven games; they lost in CAA semis in OT- they're 4-1 vs spread in last six games as favorite. Cougars 8-2 last 10 as dog.
Princeton has to be encouraged by Cornell's reaching Sweet 16; Tigers won their last six games- they held Duquesne to 37% from floor in 65-51 win Wednesday, are 9-3 vs spread in last 12 games as favorite. Athletic IUPUI held Hofstra to 37% from floor, 2-19 from arc in first round win.
Boston U won by 18 at Oregon State last week, its seventh win in last eight games; Terriers play fast (31st tempo), shoot 36% from arc. Best player on court (Faried) is on Morehead State; Eagles won nine of last 11 games. Morehead shot 55% from floor, 9-15 from arc in first round.
Saint Louis split its last six games, after 6-game win streak before that; Billikens held Indiana State to 32% Tuesday; they're 5-1 vs spread as a favorite. Green Bay was +8 in turnovers (17-9) in win at Akron; they're 6-3 in last nine games, 4-5-1 against spread in last 10 as an underdog.
Marshall won eight of last ten; they have great shot blocker (Whiteside) but Appalachian State shoots lot of 3's. ASU won six of its last seven games, covered ten of last 12; they shot 57% vs Harvard, 12-21 from arc in school's first postseason. Herd was 34-48 from line in 1st round win.
Fairfield won seven of last eight games; they were down 27 in second half at George Mason last week, won in OT- they're 10-0 vs spread in last ten games. Creighton was 12-23 from in its win over South Dakota; Bluejays (-6.5) lost 63-55 to Iona of MAAC in Florida in November.
Louisiana Tech's two best players didn't play last game, but best guy on team they beat missed game, too; Tech is 8-8 in last 16 games, as lack of depth caught up with them. Missouri State is just 5-6 in last 11 games; they beat WAC's Nevada 62-60 at home in Bracket Busters last month.
Pacific won four of last five games; they're 2-0 vs Big Cky teams, with wins by 6 at NAU, 30 vs Sacramento State. Tigers shot 60% in their win at LMU last week. Northern Colorado has best team in school history; they won seven of last nine, are 4-3 vs spread as an underdog this year.
NIT News and Notes
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers have 12 games in three different tournaments tonight, including a Big East/ACC showdown between Virginia Tech and UConn in Blacksburg. Most books are listing the Hokies as four-point home favorites with a total of 136. Bettors can take the Huskies to win outright for a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).
Seth Greenberg’s team has won 16 of its 17 home games, compiling a 6-6 spread record in Blacksburg. Meanwhile, Jim Calhoun’s squad has lost four of its last five games, going winless ATS. In addition, UConn has mostly looked disinterested and its nail-biting two-point home win over Northeastern was no exception.
The ‘under’ is on an 8-3 run for the Huskies, while the ‘over’ has hit at a 13-10 overall clip for the Hokies.
ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
Then at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, Cincinnati will play host to Dayton. LVSC opened the Bearcats as four-point favorites with a total of 131. As of early this morning, most betting shops had Cincy down to 3 ½ with the total in the 127-128 range. Gamblers can back the Flyers on the money line for a plus-145 payout (risk $100 to win $145).
Mick Cronin’s team has played well since the Big East Tournament. Cincy beat Rutgers and Louisville before losing to West Virginia on a buzzer beater off the backboard. Nevertheless, the Bearcats came out and took care of business in their NIT opener, besting Weber St. 76-62 as 9 ½-point home favorites. Deonta Vaughn led the winners with 16 points, seven assists and five rebounds.
The ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run in Cincy games and is 17-11 overall for the Bearcats.
Dayton is mired in a 2-7-1 ATS slump, although it did hook up its backers in a 63-42 home win over Illinois St. as a 7½-point favorite in the first round of the NIT.
Tip-off is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
In other NIT action, most books are listing Rhode Island as a 7 ½-point home favorite vs. Nevada. This game will come off the board early at 6:00 p.m. ET. After winning at Stony Brook, Illinois will take on Kent St. as an eight-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 133½.
In Tuesday’s NIT quarterfinals, UAB will host North Carolina at Bartow Arena. The Tar Heels won Saturday at The Hump against Mississippi St. on Larry Drew II’s game winner over Jarvis Varnado, the NCAA’s all-time leader in blocked shots. Meanwhile, the Blazers rolled to an easy home win over N.C. St.
Most spots have UAB as a four-point favorite with a total of 136.
In the other NIT quarterfinal showdown on Tuesday, Ole Miss will host Texas Tech as a rich nine-point home favorite. The Rebels beat Memphis and covered in Friday’s home game at the Tad Pad in Oxford.
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Tips and Trends
Connecticut Huskies vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Huskies: Connecticut has lost 4 of their past 5 games SU entering tonight's 2nd Round of the NIT tournament. Obviously their lone win was in their last game, a 2 point SU victory over Northeastern as a 7 point favorite. The Huskies have had an up and down season, from both the players and the coaching staff. Connecticut is 18-15 SU and 12-19 ATS overall this season. The Huskies have appeared in the NIT 6 times during the Coach Calhoun era. Connecticut is 3-11 SU and 6-8 ATS away from home this season, both in true road games and neutral court settings. The Huskies have lost their past 5 games ATS coming into tonight's game. The Huskies are 3-9 ATS in non conference games this season. Connecticut has scored less than 60 PTS in 3 of their past 4 games, and they've allowed more than 70 PTS in 3 of their past 5 games. 3 different Huskies average more than 14 PPG this season, led by G Jerome Dyson. Dyson averages 17.3 PPG along with 4.3 RPG and 4.3 APG this season in showing his versatile all around game.
Huskies are 0-5 ATS last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Under is 8-3 last 11 overall.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 63
Hokies (-4.5, O/U 136): Without question Virginia Tech will play the rest of this season with a chip on their shoulder, as everyone associated with the Hokies feel they should have made it into the NCAA Tournament. Instead of them playing in the Madness, the Hokies are now one of the favorites to win the NIT Tournament. Virginia Tech won their opening game against Quinnipiac by 20 PTS. Virginia Tech is 24-8 SU and 13-12-1 ATS overall this season. The Hokies are 16-1 SU and 6-6 ATS in home games this season. Virginia Tech finished ACC play with a 10-6 SU record, good enough for 3rd place in the conference. This NIT berth marks the 10th time the Hokies have played in the NIT. The Hokies are 6-5 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Hokies have put up huge offensive numbers of late, scoring more than 80 PTS in 3 of their past 5 games. G Malcolm Delaney leads the Hokies in scoring with 20.5 PPG this season. Delaney gets to the free throw line at will, and shoots 84% once he gets there. The do it all guard also leads Virginia Tech with 4.3 APG this season.
Hokies are 5-0 ATS last 5 non conference games.
Over is 14-3 last 17 non conference games.
Key Injuries - G Ben Boggs (ankle) is doubtful.
C Gene Swindle (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 74 (Side of the Day)
Dayton Flyers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Flyers: It's been a disappointing season for Dayton, as they started this season ranked in the Top 25 and were the favorites to win the Atlantic 10 conference. Playing in the NIT wasn't expected, but certainly their opening round demolition of Illinois St. gets Flyers Nation excited. Today will mark the 90th time Dayton has played Cincinnati, as the schools are only separated by 50 miles. When Dayton wins, it's because of their defense. The Flyers have held their opponents to a season low point total in 25 of their 33 games this season. The Flyers held Illinois St. to 42 PTS for the game, the 2nd fewest PTS they've allowed all season. Dayton is 21-12 SU entering tonight, including 14-15-1 ATS this season. Dayton is 5-10 SU and 5-9-1 ATS away from home this season. Dayton is 3-4-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. F Chris Wright is the dominating offensive force for the Flyers, as he averages 14 PPG while shooting better than 50% from the field.
Wright also leads the Flyers in rebounding, averaging 7.2 RPG this season.
Flyers are 5-0 ATS last 5 non conference games.
Under is 7-0 last 7 non conference games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 59
Bearcats (-3.5, O/U 127.5): Cincinnati is playing really good basketball right now, arguably the best of any team left in the NIT. The Bearcats have won 3 of their past 4 games, with their only SU loss coming to West Virginia by 3 PTS. Cincinnati opened up their NIT tournament with a SU and ATS win over Weber St. Playing in the Big East conference has made the Bearcats battle tested. Cincinnati has played the 12th toughest schedule in the nation this season, as they've played 13 teams ranked in the Top 50. The Bearcats are 19-15 SU and 10-19 ATS overall this season. Their SU record is deceiving though, as they've lost 4 games by a total of 16 PTS against their 4 toughest league opponents. Cincinnati is 13-4 SU and 2-10 ATS at home this season. 1 of those ATS wins was in their last game against Weber St. The Bearcats are also only 2-10 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. G Lance Stephenson leads the Bearcats this season with 12.3 PPG. Stephenson has been especially hot of late, averaging nearly 16 PPG and 8 PRG over his past 8 games.
Bearcats are 3-13 ATS last 16 home games.
Under is 7-1 last 8 non conference games.
Key Injuries - F Rashad Bishop (suspension) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 61 (UNDER - Total of the Day)