Saint Louis (23-11, 17-11-1 ATS) at VCU (25-9, 17-14-1 ATS)
This best-of-three championship series kicks off at the Siegel Center in Richmond, Va., when St. Louis arrives to take on VCU for Game 1.
Both teams have rattled off three straight wins to get to the title game, with the Billikens staying home for the trio of victories, beating Indiana State (63-54), surviving in overtime against Wisconsin-Green Bay (68-62) and then topping Princeton on Wednesday 69-59 as a four-point favorite. Kwamain Mitchell had 21 points and five assists against Princeton while teammate Willie Reed had 20 points and 10 boards.
St. Louis finished fourth in the Atlantic-10, getting knocked out of the conference tourney by Rhode Island. Losing three of their final five games cost the Billikens’ any chance of a berth in either the Big Dance and NIT.
The Rams tied for fifth in the Colonial Athletic Association, falling to regular-season champ Old Dominion 73-69 in the conference title game as two-point underdogs. VCU traveled to face George Washington in the opening round of this tourney, winning 79-73 as a 2½-point favorite and have followed with home victories over Charleston a week ago (93-86 as a 12½-point chalk) and Boston University on Wednesday (88-75 as an 11½-point chalk).
The Billikens are on several positive ATS streaks, including 10-3 overall, 4-0 on the road, 7-2 as an underdog, 7-3 after a straight-up win and 9-4 after a spread-cover. The Rams have also been strong at the betting window lately, currently on pointspread surges of 5-2 overall, 7-2-1 as a home favorite, 6-2 against winning teams and 11-5 against Atlantic-10 teams.
St. Louis has stayed below the posted total in five of seven after a spread-cover, while VCU is on “under” runs of 5-2 at home, 7-3 on Mondays, 5-2 as a home chalk and 20-9 at home against teams with losing road records. However the Rams have topped the total in five straight overall and five of six non-conference games.
Game 2 of this series is scheduled for Wednesday in St. Louis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VCU
NCAAB News and Notes
Saint Louis won 11 of last 14 games, winning last four road games; they are 7-2 vs spread in last nine games as underdog. VCU won seven of its last nine games; they're 2-0 vs A-14 teams this season, beating Rhode Island 82-80 (-4) Dec 2, then Richmond 65-57 (-2) ten days later. Rams' last four losses were all by five or less points, with last two coming to Old Dominion by total of seven points. VCU scored 86.7 ppg in its first three tourney games, winning by 6-7-13 points- this is first in best-of-3 series with Game 2 in Saint Louis Wednesday. VCU is 5-2 vs spread in its last seven games as a favorite.
Tips and Trends
Saint Louis Billikens at Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Billikens: Saint Louis is very similar to VCU in their feelings about being slighted. The Billikens felt they would get a bid into the NIT, due to their strong finish in the tough Atlantic-10 conference. Despite going to a "lesser" tournament, Coach Majerus was happy for the opportunity. Saint Louis needs more experience of any sort, as they are the youngest team in the country. The Billikens don't have a Junior or Senior on their active roster. Saint Louis 23-11 SU and 17-11-1 ATS overall this season. The Billikens are 5-8 SU and 6-7 ATS away from home this season. You can never count out this young Billikens team, as they have won 5 games SU when trailing by double figures this season. What makes the Billikens so good is their affection for defense. Only 2 times in their 34 games did an opponent score in the seventies. Saint Louis led the nation in 3 point defense, holding opponents to only 27.5% shooting from behind the arc. G Kwamain Mitchell leads the Billikens in scoring, averaging 16.3 PPG this season. The Billikens are 10-0 SU when Mitchell scores at least 20 PTS in a game this season.
Saint Louis is 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a road underdog.
Under is 8-3 last 11 games as an underdog of 7 to 12.5 points.
Key Injuries - G Jeff Reid (concussion) is out.
G Justin Jordan (thumb) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 61 (Side of the Day)
Rams (-9, O/U 130): Virginia Commonwealth has felt under-appreciated since the beginning of this season. It's only fitting that they are still feeling the same way, despite reaching the CBI Championship series. VCU entered this tournament with a chip on its shoulder, as they were certain they would be invited to the NIT Tournament. VCU is 25-9 SU and 17-14-1 ATS overall this season. The Rams were dominant at home, going 17-1 SU and 10-6 ATS this season. VCU is 15-11 ATS as the listed favorite this season, including 9-6 ATS as a single digit favorite. Digging deeper, VCU was 3-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 PTS this season. The Rams love to play an uptempo frenetic tempo that forces their opposition into mistakes. The Rams went 11-7 SU in the CAA conference this season. VCU led the CAA in both steals and forcing turnovers. F Larry Sanders is a dominating presence for the Rams, as he averaged a team high 14.5 PPG and 9.2 RPG this season. The Rams have scored at least 75 PTS in 4 of their past 5 games.
Rams are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Key Injuries - G Jay Gavin (personal) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 64