COLONIAL ATHLETIC ASSOCATION TOURNAMENT
(at Albany, N.Y.)
William & Mary (22-9, 16-10-1 ATS) vs. Old Dominion (25-8, 13-16 ATS)
William & Mary looks to slide on the glass slipper with an upset of CAA regular-season champion Old Dominion in tonight’s conference title game.
The Tribe pulled off the outright upset and beat second-seeded Northeastern on Sunday, winning 47-45 as a four-point pup, despite just 16 second-half points and finishing 17-for-46 from the field for 37 percent shooting. Only eight players scored for William & Mary and nobody reached double digits. Defensively, the Tribe held Northeastern to 17-for-50 shooting (34 percent) and 2-for-13 from beyond the three-point line.
Old Dominion, the CAA’s top seed in the tourney, needed overtime to get past VCU in Sunday’s other semifinal, winning 73-69 and cashing as a two-point favorite. Gerald Lee led the way for the Monarchs with 26 points as they shot 49.2 percent from the floor.
The Monarchs took both meetings from William & Mary this season, scoring a 61-42 blowout win at home on Feb. 3, easily cashing as a 12-point favorite, and winning 58-55 at William & Mary but coming up short as 5½-point road favorites. Old Dominion has won four straight in this series since losing to the Tribe in the opening round of the conference tourney in 2008.
William & Mary has now won three straight (2-1 ATS) and seven of nine overall (6-3 ATS). The Tribe are 12-6 away from home this season (11-6 ATS) and carry positive ATS streaks of 13-3 as a ‘dog, 5-1-1 as a neutral-site pup, 11-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 6-2 in conference action.
The Monarchs have rattled off four straight wins (3-1 ATS) and seven of eight overall (5-3 ATS). They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a chalk, but from there they’re on pointspread skids of 10-24 following a spread-cover, 8-19 in neutral-site games, 3-8 against teams with a winning record and 2-8 as a neutral-site favorite.
The Tribe have topped the total in four of six neutral-site outings, but they are on “under” runs of 12-2 overall, 8-0 against teams playing above .600 ball, 9-0 as an underdog, 7-1 after a straight-up win and 11-2 against CAA squads. Old Dominion has stayed below the total in four of five neutral-site games and 13 of 19 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, but it is on “over” streaks of 6-0 in conference play, 6-0 as a favorite and 14-3 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OLD DOMINION
WEST COAST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(at Las Vegas)
St. Mary’s (25-5, 28-10 ATS) vs. (14) Gonzaga (26-5, 15-10-2 ATS)
The top two teams in the West Coast Conference meet in the championship game and in search of the conference’s automatic bid to the Big Dance.
St. Mary’s, which finished second in the conference, three games behind Gonzaga, crushed Portland, 69-55 in Sunday’s semifinal, getting the cash as a four-point favorite. The Gaels have now won four straight (3-1 ATS) and 10 of 12 overall (7-5 ATS). They have been stellar on the highway this season, going 11-3 in road/neutral-site contests (10-4 ATS).
The Bulldogs won the regular-season crown with a 14-2 mark and dominated Loyola Marymount 776-2 as a 12½-point chalk on Sunday to earn a spot in the title game. It was the Bulldogs’ fifth straight win (3-1 ATS) and ninth in their last 10 outings (6-2-1 ATS). They shot 52.1 percent from the floor on Sunday and got 18 points, seven assists and six rebounds from Steven Gray, all while holding the Lions to 36.7 percent shooting, including 2-for-13 from beyond the arc.
Gonzaga won and covered in both regular-season matchups with the Gaels, including an 89-82 win at St. Mary’s on Jan. 14, cashing as a 4½-point road pup. The Bulldogs then blew out the Gales in Washington on Feb. 11, winning 80-61 and cashing as 5½-point favorites, giving Gonzaga six straight victories over its rivals. In last season’s conference tournament final, Gonzaga routed the Gaels, winning 83-58 as a 7½-point chalk on this same Las Vegas court.
Despite last night’s easy spread-cover against Portland, St. Mary’s comes into this game on several negative ATS skids, including 3-5 overall (all against WCC foes), 2-4 after a straight-up win, 1-4 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600 and 1-5 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Gonzaga is on ATS streaks of 6-2-1 overall, 4-1-1 in neutral-site games and 8-0 against winning teams, but just 1-3-1 as a neutral-site favorite.
For the Gaels, the under is on streaks of 6-1 after a straight-up win and 7-2 overall (all in conference play), but the over has cashed in five of seven against winning teams. The Bulldogs are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 20-9-1 as a favorite, 18-8-1 after a straight-up win, 7-3 in neutral-site contests and 4-1 as a neutral-site favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GONZAGA
Four Bids at Stake
By Brian Edwards
We now have five entrants into the NCAA Tournament field – Northern Iowa, Cornell, Winthrop, East Tennessee State and Murray St. We’ll add four more tonight with conference-title games for the Colonial, WCC, MAAC and So-Con Tournaments. Let’s get you ready for bets on tonight’s college basketball card.
**William & Mary vs. Old Dominion**
Old Dominion (25-8 straight up, 13-16 against the spread) advanced to the finals of the Colonial Tournament by beating Virginia Commonwealth 73-69 in overtime yesterday as a two-point favorite. Gerald Lee exploded to score 26 points for the Monarchs.
William & Mary (22-9 SU, 16-10-1 ATS) has won three in a row and eight of its last nine, including yesterday’s 47-45 win over Northeastern as a five-point underdog. The Tribe led 31-17 at intermission, only to allow the Huskies to rally back in this nail-biter at the Richmond Coliseum. The 92 combined points fell ‘under’ the 114 ½-point total.
William & Mary owns an incredible 12-3 spread record in 15 games as an underdog this year.
The ‘under’ is 12-2 in the Tribe’s last 14 games, 15-9 overall. On the flip side, the ‘over’ has hit in seven straight ODU games.
ODU won both regular-season meetings against the Tribe, capturing a 61-42 win as a 12-point home favorite on Feb. 3. Frank Hassell paced the winners with 15 points and nine rebounds. When these schools squared off at William & Mary, the Monarch won a 58-55 decision although the Tribe took the money as a 5 ½-point home underdog. Gerald Lee had 15 points, six boards and three blocked shots in the Jan. 23 game at Kaplan Arena.
Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Gonzaga vs. St. Mary’s**
Gonzaga (26-5 SU, 15-10-2 ATS) advanced to the WCC Tourney finals by virtue of last night’s 77-62 win over Loyola-Marymount as a 12 ½-point favorite. The 139 combined points fell ‘under’ the 150-point total. Steven Gray sparked the ‘Zags to victory with 18 points, seven assists and six rebounds.
Saint Mary’s (25-5 SU, 18-10 ATS) took out Portland in convincing fashion in last night’s WCC Tourney semifinals. The Gaels stroked the Pilots 69-55 as four-point favorites thanks to 16 points and 13 rebounds from center Omar Samhan. Mickey McConnell had 16 points on 7-of-8 shooting.
Gonzaga has won six in a row against St. Mary’s, including an 80-61 win as a 5 ½-point home favorite on Feb. 11. Elias Harris had a team-high 19 points for the Bulldogs, while Matt Bouldin added 18 points. Mark Few’s team played outstanding defense, keeping McConnell scoreless in 33 minutes of play. Samhan had 21 points and 11 rebounds in the losing effort.
From Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, ESPN will provide television coverage at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. Terry Gannon, the sixth man for North Carolina State’s 1983 national championship team, will work the play-by-play call, while the underrated Stephen Bardo, who played on Illinois’s 1989 Final Four squad that lost to eventual-champion Michigan, will be the color analyst.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
The SEC Tournament in Nashville will start on Thursday with four games: South Carolina-Alabama, LSU-Tennessee, Florida-Auburn and Georgia Arkansas. I made my own numbers that look like this: Gamecocks -2, Vols -14, Dawgs -2.5 and Gators -6.
Siena will take on Fairfield in tonight’s MAAC Tournament finals in Albany, NY. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
After losing 72-57 Sunday to Wisconsin as a three-point home underdog, Illinois is looking like an NIT team. The Illini will face the Badgers again in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. Bettors should check the status of Wisconsin guard Trevon Hughes, who sprained his ankle in the victory.
Although Austin Rivers is definitely looking at Duke also, he recently told the Gainesville Sun that he’s still committed to Florida.
vegasinsider.com
NCAAB News and Notes
Monday, March 8
Information on Monday's college basketball games.
Troy won last six games; they cruised Sunday, despite shooting 34.5% from floor; home teams won both Troy-WKU games this year, with the Trojans winning 77-69 at home (-1), losing 87-69 at WKU (+7). Western Kentucky is playing for third straight day; they've won eight games in a row, are also 8-0 in Sun Belt tourney, looking for 3rd straight title.
Denver is playing for third day in row, but its hard to prepare for their Princeton offense in just one day- Pioneers (+4.5) lost 64-59 at North Texas Feb 13. Denver won five of last six games since that loss, are 1-5 as Sun Belt dog (last nite was first cover). North Texas won last nine in a row; they were down 6 at half to UL-Monroe Sunday before rallying.
Siena trailed at half last two nites, pulled away in last 10:00 both days; Saints beat Fairfield twice during season, 81-73 (-4) on road Jan 16, 69-67 at home (-11.5) Feb 8; Stags were up 8 at half in that game. Fairfield won six of last seven games (lost at Vermont); they had a tougher game than Saints last night, are 2-4 against the spread as a MAAC underdog.
Old Dominion beat Wm & Mary twice this year, 58-55 (-5.5) on road, 61-42 at home (-12); 3-point loving Tribe was 15-55 from arc in those two losses, are 18-60 in first two tourney games, surviving a lousy half in both games. Monarchs won seven of last eight games, are 6-2 vs the spread in last eight as a favorite. Tribe is 7-2 as a CAA underdog.
Gonzaga pounded St Mary's 83-58 in WCC title game LY, then Gaels were left out of NCAAs; extra incentive for Gaels here, since Gonzaga is a lock for NCAAs. Zags (+4.5) won 89-82 in Moraga Jan 14, then won again at home, 80-61 (-5.5) Feb 11. Both teams had fairly easy wins in semis; St Mary's looked especially sharp in routing good Portland team.
Appalachian State (-7.5) won 77-76 at Wofford way back on Dec 7, the only series meeting this year; State won last two days by 10-23 points, making 12-24 from arc. Wofford won last two days by 12-19 points, as foes shot 33-35%; Terriers were 30-37 from line in win over WCarolina Sunday. Wofford looking for first-ever visit to NCAA tournament.