Monday's Tip Sheet
By Brad Young
**George Mason versus Virginia Commonwealth**
-Las Vegas Sports Consultants installed Virginia Commonwealth as a five-point ‘chalk,’ with the total set at 123. The Colonial Athletic Association Championship Game from Richmond Coliseum at Richmond, Virginia is scheduled to begin at 7:00 p.m. ET.
-George Mason (22-9 straight up, 14-11 against the spread) advanced to the championship game after knocking off Towson State Sunday as a 10-point favorite, 56-48. The combined 104 points failed to topple the 126 ½-point closing total.
-The Patriots won the rebounding battle, 38-31, while shooting 39 percent (22-of-57) from the field. Forward Darryl Monroe paced the offense with 15 points and seven rebounds, while guard Cam Long added 14, six and five assists.
-George Mason is now 8-9 SU and 6-7 ATS when playing on the road.
-Virginia Commonwealth cruised past Old Dominion Sunday as a 4 ½-point ‘chalk,’ 61-53, while the combined 114 points went ‘under’ the 124-point closing total.
-The Rams prevailed after outscoring the Monarchs in the second half, 34-25. VCU was outrebounded in the victory, 31-26, but shot a solid 46 percent (21-of-46) from the field. Guard Eric Maynor led all scorers with 23 points and four rebounds, while forward Larry Sanders added 12 and 14.
-The Rams are 10-8 SU and 8-10 ATS when playing on the road, winning those affairs by an average score of 72-68.
-VCU beat George Mason January 24 as a seven-point home favorite, 76-71, while the combined 147 points soared ‘over’ the 127-point closing total.
**St. Mary's versus Gonzaga**
-There is no overnight line or total on this contest. The West Coast Conference Championship Game from Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada is slated to start at 9:00 p.m. ET.
-St. Mary's (24-5 SU, 15-10 ATS) knocked off Portland Sunday night as an 8 1/2-point 'chalk,' 71-61, while the combined 132 points went 'under' the 135-point closing total.
-The Gaels outrebounded the Pilots, 34-27, while shooting 44 percent (23-of-52) from the field. Forward Diamon Dimpson accounted for 15 points and 14 rebounds, while center Omar Samhan added 12 and 13.
-Gonzaga (25-5 SU, 14-13 ATS) routed Santa Clara Sunday as a 15-point favorite, 94-59, while the combined 153 points soared past the 133 ½-point closing total.
-The Bulldogs jumped out to a 48-27 halftime advantage, finishing the contest by shooting a stellar 58 percent (33-of-57) from the field and 59 percent (13-of-22) from 3-point land. Forward Austin Daye poured in 28 points, while Jeremy Pargo added 16 and five rebounds.
-Gonzaga is now 14-2 SU and 9-7 ATS away from home, winning those games by an average score of 78-66.
-St. Mary's was 0-2 SU against Gonzaga this year, but 2-0 ATS. The Gaels fell Jan. 29 as a 9 1/2-point road underdog, 69-62, and Feb. 12 as a five-point home 'dog, 72-70.
**College of Charleston versus Tennessee Chattanooga**
-There is no overnight line or total concerning the College of Charleston-Tennessee Chattanooga contest. The Southern Conference Championship Game from McKenzie Arena in Chattanooga, Tennessee is scheduled to start at 7:00 p.m. ET.
-College of Charleston (26-7 SU, 15-12 ATS) upset Davidson Sunday as a 10-point underdog, 59-52, while the combined 111 points never threatened the 150-point closing total.
-The Cougars prevailed by outscoring the Wildcats in the second half, 39-23. College of Charleston won the rebounding battle, 45-37, but shot just 33 percent (20-of-61) from the field. Guard Tony White Jr. netted 17 points, while Donavan Monroe added 13 off the bench.
-The Cougars are now 14-3 SU and 9-5 ATS on the road, winning those games by an average score of 78-74.
-Tennessee Chattanooga advanced to the league championship game after upending Samford Sunday as a six-point ‘chalk,’ 81-70. The combined 151 points went ‘over’ the 133 ½-point closing total.
-Stephen McDowell scored 32 points in the victory, helping the Moccasins to a double-digit lead most of the second half.
-This tournament is taking place at Tennessee Chattanooga’s home gym, where the Mocs are 11-3 SU and 6-6 ATS.
-College of Charleston beat Tennessee Chattanooga February 23 as a 2 ½-point road underdog, 86-77.
**Niagara versus Siena**
-There is no overnight line or total on the Niagra-Siena contest. The Metro Athletic Conference Championship Game from Times Union Center in Albany, New York is slated to start at 9:00 p.m. ET.
-Niagara (26-7 SU, 20-11 ATS) punched its ticket to the championship game after holding off Rider Sunday in double overtime as an eight-point ‘chalk,’ 93-89. The combined 182 points soared ‘over’ the 146 ½-point closing total.
-The Purple Eagles won the rebounding battle, 50-44, while shooting 37 percent (29-of-78) from the field and 28 percent (7-of-25) from behind the arc. All five starters reached double digits in scoring, led by center Benson Egemonye’s 22 points and 11 rebounds.
-Niagara sports a 14-5 SU and 12-6 ATS road record, winning those games by an average score of 73-66.
-Siena cruised past Fairfield Sunday as a 12-point favorite, 80-65, while the combined 145 points eclipsed the 139 ½-point closing total.
-The Saints jumped out to a 24-point halftime advantage, 48-24, before cruising in the second half. Siena finished the contest by shooting a robust 53 percent (33-of-62) from the field, and 40 percent (8-of-20) from 3-point land. Clarence Jackson led the offense with 16 points off the bench, while Ronald Moore contributed 12 and 14 assists.
-Siena is 11-7 SU and 7-9 ATS when playing on the road, winning those matchups by an average score of 76-74.
-The home team won both matchups during the regular season in the Niagara-Siena series. The Saints prevailed Jan. 24 as a 6 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 82-65, while the Purple Eagles triumphed Feb. 27 as a 2 ½-point home favorite, 100-85.
vegasinsider.com
George Mason Patriots vs. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Team records:
George Mason: 22-9 SU, 14-11-1 ATS
Virginia Commonwealth: 23-9 SU, 13-16-1 ATS
George Mason most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
After playing Towson State are 5-5
After a win are 6-4
Virginia Commonwealth most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
After playing Old Dominion are 8-2
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
George Mason is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
George Mason is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Virginia Commonwealth
Virginia Commonwealth is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Virginia Commonwealth is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing George Mason
College of Charleston Cougars vs. Chattanooga Moccasins
Team records:
College of Charleston: 26-7 SU, 15-13 ATS
Chattanooga: 17-16 SU, 11-17-1 ATS
College of Charleston most recently:
When playing on Monday are 7-3
After playing Davidson are 6-4
After a win are 8-2
Chattanooga most recently:
When playing on Monday are 5-5
After playing Samford are 4-2
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
College of Charleston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
College of Charleston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chattanooga
Chattanooga is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Chattanooga is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing College of Charleston
North Texas Mean Green vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Team records:
North Texas: 20-11 SU, 12-12-1 ATS
Western Kentucky: 22-8 SU, 14-14 ATS
North Texas most recently:
When playing on Monday are 4-6
After playing Middle Tennessee are 3-7
After a win are 8-2
Western Kentucky most recently:
When playing on Monday are 7-3
After playing Florida International are 10-0
After a win are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
North Texas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Texas's last 6 games when playing Western Kentucky
North Texas is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Western Kentucky is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing North Texas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Western Kentucky's last 6 games when playing North Texas
Saint Mary's Gaels vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga defeated Santa Clara 94-59 as a 14.5-point favorite in the West Coast Conference Tournament on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (133).
Austin Daye scored a game-high 28 points for Gonzaga and Micah Downs added 18 points in the win.
Team records:
Saint Mary's: 25-5 SU, 14-11-1 ATS
Gonzaga: 25-5 SU, 15-12 ATS
Saint Mary's most recently:
When playing on Monday are 5-5
After playing Portland are 5-5
After a win are 8-2
Gonzaga most recently:
When playing on Monday are 9-1
After playing Santa Clara are 5-5
After a win are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
Saint Mary's is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Saint Mary's is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Gonzaga
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saint Mary's last 6 games when playing Gonzaga
Saint Mary's is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games when playing Gonzaga
Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Gonzaga is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing Saint Mary's
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Gonzaga's last 6 games when playing Saint Mary's
Gonzaga is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Saint Mary's
Niagara Purple Eagles vs. Siena Saints
Team records:
Niagara: 26-7 SU, 22-11 ATS
Siena: 25-7 SU, 14-16 ATS
Niagara most recently:
When playing on Monday are 4-6
After playing Rider are 5-5
After a win are 9-1
Siena most recently:
When playing on Monday are 8-2
After playing Fairfield are 8-2
After a win are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
Niagara is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Niagara's last 9 games when playing Siena
Niagara is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Siena
Niagara is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Siena
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Siena's last 9 games when playing Niagara
Siena is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
Siena is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Niagara
Siena is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Niagara
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans
Team records:
South Alabama: 19-12 SU, 9-18-1 ATS
Arkansas-Little Rock: 23-7 SU, 14-14-1 ATS
South Alabama most recently:
When playing on Monday are 4-6
After playing Troy are 7-2
After a win are 5-5
Arkansas-Little Rock most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
After playing Denver are 7-3
After a win are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
South Alabama is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
South Alabama is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arkansas-Little Rock
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Alabama's last 6 games when playing Arkansas-Little Rock
Arkansas-Little Rock is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arkansas-Little Rock's last 6 games when playing South Alabama
Arkansas-Little Rock is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing South Alabama
GEORGE MASON (22 - 9) vs. VA COMMONWEALTH (23 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
VA COMMONWEALTH is 3-2 against the spread versus GEORGE MASON over the last 3 seasons
VA COMMONWEALTH is 4-1 straight up against GEORGE MASON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
N TEXAS (20 - 11) vs. W KENTUCKY (22 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
W KENTUCKY is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
W KENTUCKY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
N TEXAS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
N TEXAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
N TEXAS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in March games since 1997.
N TEXAS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
N TEXAS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
N TEXAS is 3-2 against the spread versus W KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
W KENTUCKY is 3-2 straight up against N TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
S ALABAMA (19 - 12) vs. ARK-LITTLE ROCK (23 - 7)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
S ALABAMA is 2-1 against the spread versus ARK-LITTLE ROCK over the last 3 seasons
S ALABAMA is 2-1 straight up against ARK-LITTLE ROCK over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ST MARYS-CA (25 - 5) vs. GONZAGA (25 - 5)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ST MARYS-CA is 4-2 against the spread versus GONZAGA over the last 3 seasons
GONZAGA is 4-2 straight up against ST MARYS-CA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
COLL OF CHARLESTON (26 - 7) at UT-CHATTANOOGA (17 - 16)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 3-2 against the spread versus UT-CHATTANOOGA over the last 3 seasons
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 4-1 straight up against UT-CHATTANOOGA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NIAGARA (26 - 7) at SIENA (25 - 7)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SIENA is 5-2 against the spread versus NIAGARA over the last 3 seasons
SIENA is 5-2 straight up against NIAGARA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Tips and Trends
Colonial Athletic Title: George Mason vs. VCU
George Mason: The Patriots advanced to the Colonial Athletic Association championship game with a 56-48 win over Towson on Sunday. George Mason improved to 15-0 against the Tigers since 2002 and will be playing in the title game for the third year in a row. The Patriots lost to VCU two years ago in the conference championship game 65-59 and then beat William & Mary 68-59 last year. “We’ve always believed in creating a certain mental picture for our players,” George Mason head coach Jim Larranaga said. “But if you want to know what those routines are, I’d have to kill you if I told you.”
George Mason is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall.
The UNDER is 7-1-1 in George Mason's last 9 games overall.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 57 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)
VCU (-5, O/U 123): Virginia Commonwealth trailed Old Dominion 30-27 early in the second half before going on a 13-2 run to take control in an eventual 61-53 victory. The Rams saw Eric Maynor lead the charge with 13 of his 23 points after halftime, and they will be looking to beat George Mason for the second time this year. VCU got a game-high 28 points from Maynor in a 76-71 win in the first meeting back on January 24th. Maynor was the MVP of the CAA title game two years ago when the Rams beat George Mason for the championship.
VCU is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 neutral site games.
The UNDER is 4-0 in VCU's last 4 games overall.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 62
NCAAB Today
Notes on today's games.
George Mason (+6.5) lost 76-71 at VCU Jan 24, despite making 8-16 on arc; Patriots won last six games, are 3-2 vs spread as underdog this year, 2-1 in CAA play. Mason won this event LY, after VCU won it the year before; Rams won five in row, seven of last eight games; they're 4-7 vs spread in last eleven games as a CAA favorite.
Western Kentucky (-9) beat North Texas 71-67 Jan 31, after trailing at half, 34-25; Hilltoppers shot 51% from floor, but just 18-32 on the line. WKU covered five of last six games as a favorite. Mean Green won four in row, eight of last nine games; they covered last six tries as underdogs. Hilltoppers beat North Texas 84-70 in this event last season.
Ark-Little Rock won four games in row, 13 of last 15; they won 61-59 at South Alabama Jan 22 (+6), holding Jaguars to 36% from floor. USA is veteran team that won eight of last ten games. Trojans were down 11 at half yesterday, rallied to beat Denver- they're 6-0 in Sun Belt games decided by four or less points, or in overtime.
St Mary's lost twice to Gonzaga this season, 69-62 in Spokane in game Mills broke his wrist (Gaels led 39-33 at half with Mills playing), 72-70 at home in game Mills didn't play. Mills returned to lineup last nite, are 2-0 vs spread as an underdog- this game means more to them. Gonzaga is 17-1 in 2009, losing 68-50 to Memphis; they covered four of their last five tries as a favorite.
Charleston (+2) won 86-77 at Chattanooga Feb 23, in game they trailed 39-38 at half; 35 of Charleston's 65 shots came from behind arc. Bobby Cremins' Cougars ousted Davidson last night, have won seven games in row. Mocs had lost three in row coming into SoCon tourney, but made seven of their first eight treys last night, beating Samford for 3rd time.
Home side won both Niagara-Siena games, with Eagles losing 82-65 here Jan 24 (+8), in game where Saints shot 60% from floor, Niagara 6-23 on arc. Eagles got revenge with 100-85 home win 10 days ago (-2.5)- they led by 17 at half. Niagara needed a banked trey with 0:01.2 left and then double OT to beat Rider last night, while Siena jogged against Fairfield. Saints covered four of its last five home games.
Conference Tournament Thoughts
By Indiancowboy
George Mason vs. VCU
Note that this game is held in Virginia so both fan bases should be represented well. Of course, VCU should have a larger crowd for this game as it is a semi-home game. George Mason is a top 100 team and VCU is a top 80 team. GM shoots FT to a tune of 64% while VCU shoots a bit higher than 70%. These two met earlier this year at VCU and VCU won 76-71. GM has an incredible coach that prepares his boys extremely well for every tournament and GM always seems to make it to the dance. GM is 13-5 in conference play while VCU was 14-4. GM comes winning its last has beat James Madison and Towson to get here while VCU beat Georgia State and Old Dominion. The public is on VCU to a tune of 71%.
North Texas vs. Western Kentucky
This is a dangerous game for Western Kentucky. The line actually opened up at -5 and quickly dipped down to -3.5 as the majority of the public is on WKY. WKY easily beat Florida International by 18 points to get to this game and had finished the conference with a 15-3 record while North Texas is an athletic team that finished the conference at 11-7. This game is held in Arkansas as it is a neutral site game and WKY only beat NT by 4 at home earlier this year. WKY has won the last 5 contests going into today. Tough call, but I like NT to possibly win this one outright and the over here as well.
St. Marys vs. Gonzaga
Gonzaga is a beast. They just romped through Santa Clara by 30+ on neutral footing and face St. Marys today. Note, this team only beat St. Marys by 2 on the road earlier this year and beat them by 7 at home. St. Marys took care of a tough Portland team and if they can lose by just 7 on the road and 2 at home, who is to say they cannot hang by 7 on neutral footing to the Zags as Zaga' will have a much tougher time with St. Marys today than they did with Santa Clara.
Niagara vs. Siena
This is a home game for Siena and they have easily romped through their first 2 home games. The last time these two met Niagara beat this team by 15 with revenge. Now, Siena has the revenge. Niagara had its hands full with Rider. I can see this going both ways - note, that 71% of the public favors the home squad in Siena here. Niagara's a great FT shooting team and that should come into play here. A small lean on Niagara.
South Alabama vs. Arkansas LR
Ark LR barely defeated this team by a bucket on the road at S.Alabama. This is on neutral footing. It is a revenge game for South Alabama. This is certainly a game that S.Alabama can win SU on neutral footing as 66% favors the Arkansas LR team that has had more conference wins this year.