Saturday's Best NCAAB Bets
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Florida Gators (1.5)
Florida was thought to be on the way back to national prominence this season, but the Gators have struggled early and often. They got blown out by Ohio State in their second game of the year and lost to Central Florida on Dec. 1.
Part of the problem is Kenny Boyton's unfortunate propensity for jacking up the three-ball. Boynton leads the team in threes attempted by a mile, but he has made only 17 of 57 attempts (24.6 percent).
"I don't worry about that (missing open shots) because I'm not going to allow him to stop shooting," said head coach Billy Donovan. "What I want him to do is to take good shots."
When Boynton failed to score a single point in a Dec. 5 win over American, Donovan was not disappointed.
"He's not going to do that every game. I'm more worried when he shoots for a low percentage and he takes very hard shots."
Pick: Kansas State
Texas Longorns vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (-2)
Neither Texas nor UNC has made a big impression yet this season heading into Saturday's showdown in Greensboro.
The Longhorns are 8-2 and boast a big win against Illinois, but they lost two of their toughest games to date against Pittsburgh and USC. The Tar Heels are 7-3, with losses to Minnesota, Vanderbilt, and Illinois. They also have one marquee win, a 75-73 decision over Kentucky on Dec. 4.
Texas is still trying to get accustomed to point guard Cory Joseph. The freshman scored 19 and 18 points, respectively, in his past two outings, but his assists-to-turnivers ratio is lacking. "We're still finding our niche getting comfortable with Cory," said forward Gary Johnson. "We still have a long way to go chemistry-wise, but it's starting to come together."
That can't come soon enough for head coach Rick Barnes' who has not liked his team's play since the matchups with Pittsburgh and Illinois in Madison Square Garden.
"We haven't played as well as we can since New York," Barnes noted. "But I don't think we've had a bad practice."
Pick: North Carolina
NCAA Odds: Kansas Jayhawks versus USC Trojans
By: Michael Robinson
The Kansas Jayhawks are proving once again they don’t rebuild, they reload. They put their perfect record – and 64-game home winning streak – on the line Saturday versus the Pac-10 USC Trojans.
Big 12 Kansas is 9-0 straight-up (4-3 against the spread) despite losing Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich and Xavier Henry. The first two were expected as upperclassmen, but losing the freshman Henry was a blow for a team that finished 33-3 SU after losing to Northern Iowa as 11-point favorites in the second round of March Madness.
The Jayhawks were ranked No. 7 in preseason polls, but have moved up to No. 3 behind Duke and Ohio State.
Coach Bill Self’s biggest concern was replacing 49 percent of team scoring. Big man Marcus Morris was the only returning double-digit scorer (12.8 PPG) and he’s upped his average to 16.9 PPG. Twin brother Markieff Morris has been great as a starter this year, 12.3 PPG and 9.1 RPG.
Having two physical big men already puts Kansas ahead of most college programs. Guards Tyshawn Taylor (10.9 PPG) and Tyrel Reed (10 PPG) are two more consistent scorers. The team is scoring almost six points per game more this season (87.3 PPG), although some of that is due to weak competition. No. 14 Memphis is the only ranked team it’s faced.
The Jayhawks last played on Saturday, a 76-55 win over Colorado State at Kansas City’s Sprint Center. However, they didn’t ‘cover’ the 21 ½-point spread and are 1-3 ATS in their last four games. They were 3-0 ATS in the first five, with two non-spread affairs.
Kansas has already beaten Pac-10 teams UCLA (77-76) and Arizona (87-79), failing to ‘cover’ either game. Both went ‘over’ the total, with the ‘under’ 4-1 in all other contests.
There’s plenty of off-court news with reserve guard Mario Little suspended indefinitely after being arrested. Prized recruit Josh Selby will make his much-anticipated debut after the NCAA made the guard sit out the first nine games for receiving improper benefits.
USC (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) hasn’t gotten off to the start it would like with early losses to Rider, Bradley, Nebraska and TCU. Those aren’t exactly national powerhouses.
Things have improved the last two games, first beating No. 20 Texas 73-56 as five-point home ‘dogs in the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series. That Dec. 5 game was followed by last Saturday’s 60-52 home win over Northern Arizona, failing to ‘cover’ the 9 ½-point spread.
Reinforcements also are on the way with point guard Jio Fontan. The Fordham transfer is making his season debut, although the news is being overshadowed by Selby’s return. Coach Kevin O’Neill is extremely high on Fontan, saying he’s their best player and the team would be 9-1 or 8-2 if he was eligible at the start of the year.
Fotan will likely team with 5-foot-7 freshman Maurice Jones in the backcourt, even though both are point guards. Freshman guard Bryce Jones should move to the bench and that will boost the current seven-man rotation.
Marcus Simmons, Nikola Vucevic, and Alex Stepheson are the other three starters. Vucevic (16.5 PPG) is the leading scorer and he combines with Stepheson for 19 RPG. That twosome matches up well inside against the Morris brothers, which is a good start against Kansas.
USC does need to prove it can play on the road, going 0-2 SU (1-1 ATS) at TCU and Nebraska.
Kansas and USC played twice in the last decade in 2006 and 2007. The Jayhawks won both, but failed to ‘cover’ the home meeting, 72-62 as 17-point ‘chalk.’
Neither team is reporting any significant injuries. Tip-off from on-campus Phog Allen Fieldhouse will be an early 9 a.m. (PT) and will be broadcast on ESPN.
NCAA Basketball Betting: UNC versus Texas
By: Willie Bee
It's been one day shy of exactly a year since the Texas Longhorns and North Carolina Tar Heels met on the hardwood. If Saturday's matchup at Greensboro Coliseum (1 p.m. PT, CBS) is anything like the previous battle, then strap yourselves in for a high-scoring ride.
The Dec. 19, 2009 meeting was greatly hyped with the two squads entering Cowboys Stadium on that Saturday ranked in the top 10. Texas was 9-0 with triumphs over Pitt, Iowa and USC. The Tar Heels were already showing signs of trouble with a 7-2 record against a fairly tough beginning slate, the two losses to Syracuse and Kentucky.
College basketball odds closed with the Longhorns giving up seven, a spread they would eventually beat by about double the margin in the 103-90 victory. Texas held that 13-point lead at the end of the first half and dominated the Heels on the glass with a 56-36 rebound gap. The 'Horns only shot 41.4 percent from the field, but 29 offensive boards helped make up for that with four Texas players scoring at least 20 points.
The Longhorns (8-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread) come into this year's rematch ranked 22nd by the writers, 25th by the coaches. Rebounding is once again a huge strength with Texas sitting seventh nationally at 43.1 per game. Shooting is also once again a bit of a bugaboo; the Longhorns are converting 44.7 percent of their field goals, 141st on the charts.
They've really had just two off games to date, a narrow 62-59 win at home versus Rice as huge 21-point chalk and a 73-56 loss at USC about two weeks ago. Texas closed as five-point road favorites in that game. The other loss came to Pitt, 68-66, in mid-November as 4½-point underdogs at Madison Square Garden in the 2K Sports Classic Championship.
Rick Barnes' squad is relying a lot on youth this season. Sophomore Jordan Hamilton leads the team with an 18.9 scoring average, also contributing 6.9 rebounds per night. Freshmen Tristan Thompson (11.3 PPG) and Cory Joseph (11.0 PPG) are the only players averaging more than 30 minutes of floor time per game.
Roy Williams' crew once again got off to a rather slow start by dropping two of its first four games, three of the first six. All three losses came outside the great state of North Carolina, slipping back-to-back in Puerto Rico to Minnesota and Vanderbilt before a true road loss at Illinois at the end of November.
The Tar Heels failed to cover as small favorites in the losses to the Gophers and Commodores, and were six-point underdogs in the 79-67 fall to the Fighting Illini. North Carolina is 7-3 overall, but just 3-5 versus the number. The Heels were 19-point favorites last Saturday at home versus Long Beach State, and held on for a 96-91 win. The 49ers played fairly even with the Heels on the boards and shot over 50 percent from the field, sinking 10-of-31 from long range.
Junior Tyler Zeller tops UNC with a 15.8 scoring average and adds 7.7 rebounds per contest. The 7-footer is complemented inside by 6-foot-10 sophomore John Henson (10.5 PPG, 9.9 rebounds) and 6-foot-8 frosh Harrison Barnes (11.9 PPG, 6.4 rebounds). That trio sets up a very interesting game matchup with Texas' Big 3 – Hamilton, Thompson and senior Gary Johnson.
This should be a fast-paced game that I like settled by a bucket on the final scoreboard. Late free throws, as always, will be important. Henson has been the worst shooter from the charity stripe for the Heels, hitting just 34.3 percent of the time (15-for-44); Thompson is Henson's counterpart on the Texas roster with a 48.1 percent mark (37-for-77). I'll take the crowd factor in the end and see UNC by an 84-82 final.
Texas will stay on the road for its next encounter, a Dec. 22 date in East Lansing versus Michigan State. North Carolina returns to Chapel Hill to host William & Mary next Tuesday (Dec. 21).
What to watch: College hoops betting TV guide
By Dave Carey
Final exams are over. Now it's time to get back to the real important stuff, like college hoops. Find out what games are on the tube and where with our College Hoops Betting TV Guide.
USC Trojans at Kansas Jayhawks, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Jayhawks will have one of their stiffest tests when the Trojans come calling. Good thing Kansas will have the services of stud freshman Josh Selby, who was forced to sit out the first nine games of the season for violating NCAA rules.
“I do think I’m lucky,” Selby said, “because when I saw the Enes Kanter situation (suspended from Kentucky for entire season) and he couldn’t play ever in college, it had me wondering, ‘Will they do the same thing for me?’”
Selby likely will come off the bench for Kansas, but the Baltimore star was regarded as one of the Top 5 players in the country last season and will provide a huge boost to his team.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Ohio State Buckeyes, 2 p.m. ET, CBS
The Buckeyes have a starting lineup blessed with a pair of future NBA draft picks in Jared Sullinger and David Lighty, but the bench remains a work in progress.
Just who will be coming off it and in what order is still a bit of a mystery. Point guard Aaron Craft remains the sixth man and is playing big minutes. After him, forward Deshaun Thomas is the team’s next best scoring option off the pine. However, Jordan Sibert, guard Lenzelle Smith Jr. and forward J.D. Weatherspoon all are competing for minutes that have been anything but regular.
"Those guys have been working hard in practice, and we're seeing improvement in them," Ohio State coach Thad Matta said. "The more we can get them (in) and give guys a quick break here and there, hopefully it helps us."
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Texas A&M Aggies, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Aggies are shifting their focus to go deeper into their bench and use their size and athletic ability. The team features four 6-foot-8 or taller post players and a pair of wings each at least 6-foot-7 or taller. They need to find the right mix of these beasts on the court at the same time. This has the team relying heavily on its defense as its offense has yet to catch up to its athletic potential.
“We’ve thrown a lot at them and quite frankly we’ve worked more on defense than offense,” Texas A&M coach Mark Turgeon said. “That formula has worked so far this year, and we’ll see if it works on Saturday.”
Overall, the team has five players averaging four or more rebounds per game and is out-rebounding opponents by an average of 41.1 to 28.8.
Stanford Cardinal at Butler Bulldogs, 2 p.m. ET, CBS
Cardinal forward Josh Owens is making his return to the court known. After sitting out last year with an undisclosed medical condition, he has been a force for Stanford, scoring in double figures five times in the past six games and notching at least eight rebounds in his past three.
In the team’s most recent game, a 76-59 win over North Carolina A&T, Owens notched a season-high 15 points as continues to round his game into shape.
"J.O. is finding himself," Stanford coach Johnny Dawkins said. "Every game you see him getting better and better."
Texas Longhorns vs. North Carolina Tar Heels, 4 p.m. ET, CBS
After giving up 91 points to Long Beach State, the Tar Heels are still looking for answers on the defensive end. The team was mixing up hedging and going over screens and also even tried zone for three straight possessions in the second half. Still, not much worked for the team.
“We’ve been living off our defense for the last four or five games,” UNC coach Roy Williams said. “In the second half, defensively we were not very good. We didn’t really have it mentally on defense. I just wanted to try something. We weren’t handling the screen on the ball very well. We weren’t communicating.”
If Texas gets off to a hot start, it could become very difficult for the Tar Heels to string together stops.
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Baylor Bears, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Bulldogs played a game on Thursday night, but don’t expect Gonzaga to be too fazed from a home date against Lewis-Clark State College. It’s one of the first breaks the 4-5 squad will get this year after starting the season with the most brutal schedule in the country. If anything, the game finally gave the Bulldogs a chance to gel.
“My freshman year we had (Jeremy) Pargo and (Josh) Heytvelt and a lot of seniors and juniors, and that definitely helped out,” Junior guard Demetri Goodson told reporters. “This year we have a lot of young players. We’re still learning, trying to get better and play within the team.”
By the end of the weekend, Gonzaga will have played the Nos. 6, 9, 11, 12 and 24 ranked teams in the AP Poll.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Still trying to figure out Alabama? Keep trying. The Tide are continuing to work star forward JaMychal Green into the lineup. Green was suspended for three games before returning against Providence where he posted his first double-double (15 points, 11 rebounds) and appears to be regaining his elite form. Minus his attitude problems, that is.
“It was a humbling experience (to be suspended),” Green said. “But now our team needs a leader and I am going to try and become that leader. That is what I am trying to do in this comeback.”
For the season, Green is averaging 13.3 points and 6.0 rebounds per game.
Detroit Titans at Central Michigan Chippewas, 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU
It’s the ultimate father-son game. Detroit, coached by Ray McCallum Sr. and featuring his son, stud freshman guard Ray Jr., will travel to Mount Pleasant to face Central Michigan coach Ernie Zeigler and his son, Trey. Both players were Top-50 recruits nationally and know each other well. They have played together since kindergarten, including a stint on the same AAU team.
"Ray and I met when we were four or five years old," Zeigler said. "My dad took me down to Ball State's camp when Ray's dad was the coach there. We met and hung out and were reunited in AAU in sixth grade. We've stayed in touch ever since."
Two players expected to make big impacts know each other well and should be well versed in how to shut down one another.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Xavier Musketeers, 8 p.m. ET, CBS College Sports
Demon Deacons coach Jeff Bzdelik altered his lineup for his team’s game against UNC-Greensboro Wednesday. The results were less than impressive. Wake Forest won by only two and needed to rally late for the win.
Bzdelik started start sophomore C.J. Harris, senior Gary Clark, junior Nikita Mescheriakov, freshman Carson Desrosiers and freshman Travis McKie in place of the usual lineup of Harris, Ari Stewart, McKie, fellow freshman J.T. Terrell and junior Ty Walker.
McKie did post 16 points and 14 rebounds and the team did notch a 69-67 win. The move wasn’t a huge spark, but it wasn’t a huge disaster. Expect Bzdelik to give the lineup another shot.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Oklahoma Sooners, 9 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Believe in Cincinnati? It would be a tough thing to do. Despite a record of 9-0, the Bearcats have an RPI of nearly 110 and one of the worst schedules in the country. The team is playing the 333rd toughest slate out of 345 Division-I teams.
“I’ve been telling everybody we were going to have a better team since last April and nobody’s listened,” UC coach Mick Cronin said. “I told everybody when we got back from Canada (in September).”
And even if it was against Georgia Southern, the team did look pretty good in a recent 99-54 win as six players reached double figures for the biggest victory of Cronin’s tenure at the school.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at UTEP Miners, 10 p.m. ET, CBS College Sports
The Red Raiders aren’t just bad on defense. They are horrible. The team is giving up nearly 80 points per game, the worst in the Big 12. The team figures to be better with an aggressive, man-to-man defense featuring plenty of good athletes.
“We have mental lapses,” Texas Tech forward Mike Singletary said. “There are spurts where we play really good defense for four, six minutes here and there, then we forget what we’re supposed to be doing. When you play good teams you can’t have that.”
However, coaches and players agree that this team is having a horrible time with its help-side rotations. Whether players are too dialed-in on their own assignments or just not that bright, it remains a big issue for Texas Tech. That's not a good sign for a team that begins practice each day with defensive drills.
Florida State Seminoles at Loyola Marymount Lions, 11 p.m. ET, ESPNU
The Seminoles have a secret weapon: A former drug runner. No, seriously. The team is welcoming back 7-footer Jon Kreft, who has missed years of playing time with Florida State from issues, including getting caught with 1.7 grams of cocaine squeezed between his butt. Now he’s back, however, scoring six points in his debut in a blowout win over Stetson and figures to be playing a huge role for the offensively challenged Seminoles.
"He has really worked hard and we've all been anticipating (his return) for awhile now and we feel he's really going to help us out in the long run," said FSU forward Chris Singleton. "I commend him; we've been making sure he's staying on the right track as a part of our team and family. We will continue to do that."
College Basketball Knowledge
Kansas-USC both get new PGs for this game; Fordham transfer Fontan for Trojans, freshman Selby for Kansas. USC is 2-1 as underdog, losing both road games, by hoop at Nebraska (led by 20), by 12 at TCU. Big 12 double digit home favorites are 11-8 vs spread; Pac-10 road dogs are 6-11 vs spread. Jayhawks covered one of last four as a favorite.
9-0 Central Florida (+3.5) upset Florida in only game as underdog, won by 27 at Stetson in only road game. Miami won last five games, is 1-1 as a favorite- they lost 72-68 to Memphis (+7) of C-USA. C-USA road dogs of 7 or less points are 9-4 vs spread. ACC home favorites of less than 6 points are 4-2.
Butler is just 5-4, with four wins by 13+ poins; they've played #19 sked so far; Bulldogs are 2-2 as a favorite. 6-2 Stanford is underdog for first time this season; they went 1-2 on neutral floor in Anaheim, scoring 52-53 points in only two losses, by 3-12 points. Horizon home favorites are 7-13 vs spread. Pac-10 road underdogs are 6-11.
Texas A&M won its last six games, nipping Washington by a point last game; they're 3-1 as a favorite this year. Arkansas is 7-1, losing to UAB 70-65; this is as close to road game as they've come so far. Razorbacks won their last four games. Big 12 faves of 9 or less points are 11-15 vs spread; SEC single digit underdogs are 12-6.
St Mary's is 8-2 playing the #199 schedule; they're 3-1 when favored to win. Long Beach State lost four of its last six games; they're 3-4 as dog, losing to Clemson by 14, LMU by 3, 27 at Washington, 28 at Utah St and 96-91 at North Carolina. Big West road underdogs are 25-19 vs the spread. WCC single digit favorites are 10-6, 3-1 away from home.
9-1 Kansas State's only loss was to Duke in Kansas City; Wildcats won by 5 at Washington State, 8 at Loyola in semi-tough road games. Big 12 teams are 9-6 vs spread if spread is 3 or less points. 7-2 Florida hasn't played in nine days; they're 1-2 against teams ranked higher than #112, losing to Ohio State by 18, UCF by 3, beating Florida State by 4.
7-3 North Carolina won last three games, scoring 82.3 ppg; they're 2-3 away from home, beating Evansville by 27, Hofstra by 43, but losing to Minnesota-Vanderbilt-Illinois. Texas is 2-1 away from, losing at USC by 17, to Pitt by hoop on neutral floor, beating Illinois in OT on same floor. Big 12 teams are 9-7 vs spread if number is 4 or less points.
Mississippi State finally has heralded recruit Sidney eligible; they're 7-2, winning last three games. Chenistry will be issue for them until they get Sidney/Bost back in rotation- this is also Bulldogs' first game away from Starkville. 5-4 Virginia Tech is disappointing veteran team that has faced tough (#29) schedule. SEC road dogs of less than 7 points are 10-5.
Gonzaga isn't used to being 5-5 (1-5 vs teams in top 100); they're 2-3 as an underdog, 1-3 away from home, losing to K-State by 17 in KC, by 22 at Washington State, 4 at Notre Dame (beat Marquette in KC). Baylor is 8-0 playing the #318 schedule; they're leaving Waco for first time this season. Bears are 1-1 as favorite, beating LaSalle by 10, ASU by 14.
This is first Wooden Classic since famous coach passed away; UCLA is 5-4, beating pair of Big West stiffs in last two games. Bruins are 1-1 as underdogs, losing by a point at Kansas, by 12 to Villanova on a neutral floor. BYU is 10-0, 3-0 vs teams in top 50, winning by 6-1-22 points. BYU's only true road game was 77-65 win at Creighton (-7.5); this is in Anaheim, not a true road game, but location definitely favors UCLA.
Cleveland State is 12-0, playing #236 schedule; they're 3-0 on road, with wins at Akron-ULLafayette-Sam Houston State. Iona (#103) is best club Vikings have beaten this year. Horizon double digit road dogs are 7-5 vs spread. West Virginia is 7-2 but failed to cover last four tries as favorite. Big East double digit home favorites are 18-17 against the spread.
LSU is 7-3 playing #301 schedule; highest-ranked team they've beaten is #183. They just split pair of OT games with Coastal Carolina/McNeese State; SEC teams shouldn't be going OT with them. Wichita State is 1-2 vs teams ranked higher than #184, losing to UConn by 4, at San Diego St by 14, beating Virginia by 12. LSU lost at home to Nicholls State.
Cincinnati is 9-0 playing #339 (out of 345) schedule in country- best W so far was over #108 Dayton. Bearcats are 3-1 as favorite-- this is their first game outside of Ohio this year. #110 Sooners are 1-2 as underdog, losing to Kentucky by 12, Arkansas by 10, Arizona by 23. Road faves of 7 or less points from Big East are 9-13 against the spread.