NCAAB News and Notes
Saturday, December 5
Information on the best of Saturday's college hoop games........
VCU lost PG Maynor but has other four starters back from LY's 24-10 team; Rams whacked Wm & Mary twice LY, 66-50 here (-7), 76-54 at home (-15). VCU is 5-1 after 82-80 win over URI. Tribe won last five games after triple OT loss at Harvard, winning at Manhattan and Wake Forest, and also beating Richmond. First CAA game for both.
George Mason beat NC-Wilmington twice LY, 101-60 at home (-19); in rematch, Mason won 53-52 (-12). young Patriots lost four of last five games, are 0-2 on road, losing at Tulane, GWash. Seahawks are 3-2 last five games, with four starters back from LY's 7-25 team (3-15 in CAA).
First true road game for 7-1 North Carolina team that scored 80+ points in its home games, but 71-77 in neutral court tilts (1-1). ACC underdogs are 4-6 against spread. Kentucky is 7-0, scoring 80.6 ppg, but take huge step up in class here- they struggled to beat Miami O (by 2), Stanford (by 8 in OT). SEC home favorites are 18-12 against spread.
Cleveland State beat Detroit twice LY, 53-44 here (-8.5), 66-49 at home (-16); but Vikings lost last four games, all by 9+ points- they lost only road game by 9 at Wright State. Titans are 2-0 at home, winning by 6-11 points. Detroit is 5-2 this year after ending LY 7-23- they won Horizon opener by 11 over Youngstown State.
Providence (-4.5) nipped bitter rival Rhode Island 66-65 LY; Friars lost 66% of scoring, 67% of rebounding from LY- they're 5-2 after solid won at Northeastern last game, 76-72. URI is 4-1 after a 82-80 loss at VCU Thursday- they have road wins at Brown, Davidson. A-14 home faves are 12-5 against spread. Big East road dogs are 13-4.
James Madison (+1) won 82-69 at Georgia State LY, making 16-29 from arc; Dukes are 4-2 this year, 1-1 as home favorite- they've got 3 starters back from 21-15 team (9-9 in CAA). Panthers are 3-4, 0-2 on road, with losses by 16 at NC State, 4 at So. Alabama. GSU has three starters back from 12-20 team (8-10 in CAA).
First road game for 5-1 NC State team that lost to Northwestern by 12 at home last game; Wolfpack lost top three scorers from 16-14 team LY. ACC road dogs are 4-6 vs spread. Marquette is 6-1 after losing by point to Florida State in Old Spice final; they're 4-0 at home vs stiffs, despite losing four starters from LY. Big East home favorites are 13-18.
Duke (-10.5) won 76-69 at St John's LY (up 11 at half); Blue Devils lost first game at Wisconsin Wednesday- they're 4-2 as favorite this year, 2-1 at home. St John's is 6-0, winning tight games against Siena, Temple and St Bonaventure, but Cameron is different world. Big East road dogs are 13-4 against the spread.
Northeastern (+1.5) won 47-46 at Drexel in only meeting LY; both sides have four starters back from LY. Huskies are 2-3, 0-2 on road, losing at Siena by 6, Boston U by 5. Drexel is 3-5, 2-1 at home- they lost last two games, scoring 54-58 points. All five Northeastern games were decided by six or less points.
Temple is 5-2, scoring 45-48 points in losses to Georgetown/St John's; Owls are 3-2-1 vs spread as favorite- they lost three starters from 22-12 team (11-5 in A-14). Penn State (-5.5) lost 65-59 at home to Owls LY; Lions are 5-2 after 69-66 win at Virginia, their first road game (went 1-2 in netral court tourney). Big 11 road underdogs are 5-6 vs spread.
Pac-10 teams are 1-4 in Big 12 challenge; they're 6-5 vs spread as road dogs. Oregon lost 88-81 at Portland in only road game; they have five starters back from 8-23 team (2-16 in Pac-10). Missouri lost at Vandy 88-82 last game, their second loss in row after 4-0 start- they scored 94 ppg in winning first three home games. Big 12 home favorites are 11-5.
Wake Forest scored 68-58 points in losing last two games after 4-0 start they've got three starters back from 24-7 team (11-5 in ACC); their loss at Purdue was first road game of year. Gonzaga was down 13 in second half to Wash State, won 74-69, their fifth win in row since 75-71 loss to Michigan State. WCC home favorites are 4-8 vs spread.
Washington State is 5-1 vs D-I opponents, losing by 5 at Gonzaga after leading by 13 in second half; Coogs have new coach, three new starters after going 17-16 LY (8-10 in Pac-10). Kansas State is 5-1 vs D-I teams, winning at home by 38-32-13 points; they've got four starters back from 22-12 team (9-7 in Big 12). Big 12 home favorites are 11-5.
Utah State lost 75-64 at St Mary's in Bracket Buster game last winter; Gaels lost four starters (44.9 ppg) from LY; they won first road game at San Jose, after being down 12 at half. Aggies have four starters back from 30-5 team- they beat BYU by 10 last game, their third win in row. WAC home favorites are 7-5 vs spread.
Colorado State (-2) lost 66-55 at Denver LY, Rams are 0-2 on road, with losses by 5 at Indiana State, 7 at N. Colorado- they have three starters back from 9-22 team (4-12 in MWC). Denver has five starters back from 15-16 team (9-9 in Sun Belt); they've won five games in row since 71-65 home loss to No Iowa- their only road win was 80-77 at S. Dakota St.
Pacific won 67-59 at Nevada LY; Tigers are 6-q this year, 3-0 at home, winning by 1-27-8 points. Tigers are 1-3 as favorite; dogs are 5-2 against spread in their games. Nevada only lost by 7 at North Carolina, but they are 0-3 on road, losing by 13 at UNLV, 9 at VCU. WAC road underdogs are 8-10 vs spread. Big West home favorites are 6-2.
San Diego State won last game in OT at rival San Diego; Aztecs are 5-0 since getting blasted in opener at St Mary's (road wins by 4 at Fresno, 7 at USD). MWC road favorites are 3-4 vs spread. UCSB lost at home to Santa Clara (68-79, -10) last game, its first loss in five games. Big West underdogs are 15-9 vs spread, 2-1 at home.
UNLV is 5-0, beating Louisville, Arizona in last two games; Rebels have now beaten Cardinals last two years- they've lost three starters from a 21-11 team (9-7 in Big West). Santa Clara won as 10-point dog at UCSB last game; they're 3-3 vs D-I teams, 2-2 as dog. WCC home underdogs are 4-2 against spread. MWC road favorites are 3-4.
Cal is banged up, but could get Robertson back here; they're 4-3, but 4-0 at home, winning by 5-34-32-21 points. Bears have four starters back from 23-11 team- they're 2-1 as favorite. Iowa State lost to No Iowa at home last game, their second loss in row after 6-0 start- they scored 63.3 ppg in last three games, after averaging 86 ppg in first five.
Davidson is 1-5 vs D-I teams after winning SoCon opener at Citadel by 11; Wildcats lost three starters from LY (including star G Curry)-- they lost two of three vs Charleston LY, winning by 4 here, then losing by 2 at home, by 7 in SoCon tourney. Cougars made 8-15 from arc in 68-59 win in SoCon opener vs Georgia Southern- they have three starters back from 27-9 team (15-5 in SoCon).
(10) North Carolina (7-1, 3-4 ATS) at (5) Kentucky (7-0, 2-3 ATS)
The Wildcats put their perfect record on the line this afternoon as defending-champion North Carolina comes calling to Rupp Arena for an annual non-conference clash.
The Tar Heels have rebounded nicely from their first defeat of the season – an ugly 87-71 loss to Syracuse in a preseason tournament at Madison Square Garden – posting three straight wins. Most recently, they toppled Michigan State 89-82 as a two-point home favorite on Tuesday in a rematch of last year’s national championship game. Coach Roy Williams’ young squad has scored 80 points or more in six of its first eight games, averaging 87.3 points during the current three-game winning streak. The Heels are making 52.5 percent of their shots this year, but they’ve surrendered an average of 72.2 points per game, with opposing teams shooting 41.4 percent.
North Carolina has tallied at least 70 points in 45 of 46 contests since the start of last season, hitting the 80-point mark 36 times during this stretch. Also, since the final game of the 2006-2007 regular season, the Heels are 84-9 SU.
Kentucky has feasted on a cupcake schedule to this point, as it has faced just one quality opponent. That was Stanford back on Nov. 25 in a preseason tourney in Cancun, and the Wildcats survived 73-65 in overtime, outscoring the Cardinal 10-2 in the extra session but still falling short as a 10-point favorite. Following that contest, John Calipari’s crew came home on Monday and dismantled North Carolina-Ashville 94-57 in a non-lined game. Kentucky has topped the 70-point mark in every game this season, shooting a sizzling 51.5 percent from the field, while holding opponents to 65 ppg (36.5 percent shooting).
These historical programs have met in non-conference action every year this decade, and after Kentucky won the first four (3-0-1 ATS), North Carolina has come back to take the last five (5-0 ATS). Last year, the Tar Heels cruised to a 77-58 win, barely covering as an 18½-point home favorite. The last time UNC went to Rupp Arena in 2007, it prevailed 86-77, again cashing by a half-point as an 8½-point chalk.
The Tar Heels have failed to cover in four of their last five true road games, but otherwise they’re on a slew of positive ATS runs, including 9-4 overall, 41-14 in non-conference play, 9-1-1 versus the SEC and 8-1 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Kentucky has cashed in 13 of 19 on Saturday, but is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 at home and 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven against ACC foes.
Carolina is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall and 6-2 on the road, but the Wildcats have stayed low in eight of 10 overall, four of five at home and five of seven non-league contests. Finally, the last two meetings at Rupp Arena went over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA