Top 25 Matchups
By Matt Fargo
Tennessee Volunteers (12) at Kentucky Wildcats (2)
After suffering back-to-back losses against Georgia and Vanderbilt, the Volunteers looked to have righted the ship with three straight wins to pull back within a game of Kentucky in the SEC East. Tennessee then went to Vanderbilt for the rematch in trying to avenge that nine-point home loss against the Commodores but instead of revenge it got pounded yet again. The Volunteers never led and that is a loss that is not a good segue into facing the number one team in the nation on the road again no less. The matchup on paper does not look good for Tennessee but we all know what can happen in rivalries.
Kentucky did not last very long as the number one team in the country last month. The Wildcats were 19-0 after defeating Arkansas by 31 points but then proceeded to lose their first game as the top team in the nation as they were defeated by South Carolina in Columbia. Kentucky has bounced back to win its last four games, all by double-digits, two of which came against ranked teams Vanderbilt and Mississippi at home. This is the first of two meetings against the Volunteers, a team the Wildcats swept last season by 18 and 19 points.
The best way for Tennessee to walk away with an upset is to not get into a track meet with the Wildcats. Tennessee hopes to keep it a low-scoring game, as their offense has struggled of late, unable to reach 80 points in the past eight games after scoring 80 points or more in eight of its first 15 games. The loss of Tyler Smith for the season has no doubt hurt. Playing solid perimeter defense is also important as Kentucky has been involved in close games against a solid zone defense that defends the long-rang shot well. Tennessee is 34th in the nation in three-point defense, allowing just 30.1 percent so there may be hope after all.
College Hoops Weekend TV Guide
By RYAN COLAIANNI
No. 10 Michigan State at Penn State (12 p.m., ET, ESPN)
Less than two weeks ago, Michigan State looked like a national title contender and appeared to have locked up the Big Ten conference title. Now they are stuck in a log-jam at the top of the Big Ten with five teams within one game of the conference lead.
"It's still my team and I've got to straighten it out, and I'm going to say that we're still tied for first," Tom Izzo told the Lansing State Journal after Tuesday's 76-64 loss to Purdue.
Maryland at No. 8 Duke (1 p.m., ET, CBS)
After beating rival North Carolina on Wednesday, Duke got a piece of bad news leading into its game against Maryland. Forward Lance Thomas is out indefinitely and is doubtful to play against Maryland. Thomas suffered a severe bone bruise in his right knee when he collided with a North Carolina player early in the second half.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (2 p.m., ET, ESPN)
The similarities between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are plentiful. Both stand at 4-5 in the Big 12 conference, both are struggling to earn an NCAA tournament berth and both are coming off losses to Texas Tech. Oklahoma State had wins over Kansas State and Texas A&M and was sitting pretty at 4-2 in the conference before its three-game losing streak. Oklahoma State hopes to create a similar run tolast year when it made the NCAA tournament.
Providence at No. 4 Villanova (2 p.m., ET, ESPNU)
On any given moment, Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds can go off. He scored just two points in the first half against West Virginia but Reynolds but piled on 19 in the second half in route to a 7-point win over West Virginia. The win came after a loss to Georgetown last weekend and Villanova has not lost back-to-back games in nearly two years.
Indiana at No. 11 Wisconsin (2 p.m., ET, Big Ten Network)
With Michigan State losing on the same night, Wisconsin had a chance to move into a tie for first place in the Big Ten. However, Illinois beat Wisconsin on Tuesday, and Wisconsin dropped to a game out of first place. The loss ended Wisconsin’s 18-game home win streak and Wisconsin scored just six points in the paint.
N.C. State at North Carolina (4 p.m., ET, ESPN)
Leading by four with 12 minutes left against Duke, North Carolina was close to getting a signature win and getting on back on track. But then the Heels went ice cold, hitting four of their last 17 shots, falling to Duke by 10.
"Up until that point, we did a much better job than in the past of waiting for better shots, taking better shots," senior Marcus Ginyard told the News and Observer. "We weren't as patient those last 10 minutes as we were earlier in the game - just taking some shots that were marginal, and we just weren't putting them in."
Iowa at No. 6 Purdue (4 p.m., ET, Big Ten Network)
Purdue guard E’Twaun Moore has thrived on the road this season averaging more than 20 points per game in his six Big Ten road games. That includes 25 points in a win at Michigan State on Tuesday. Moore is averaging 17.5 points per game in all games this season.
"When you're on the road, you have everybody against you," Moore told the Indianapolis Star. "It just feels good when you make a shot or something to silence the crowd. I don't know what it is, but I just love playing on the road."
Iowa State at No. 1 Kansas (8 p.m., ET, ESPNU)
Senior guard Sherron Collins and junior center Cole Aldrich may get most of the glory but it is the play of sophomore forward Marcus Morris who is leading the way for Kansas in scoring in Big 12 play. Morris is averaging almost 18 points and better than eight rebounds per game in Big 12 play, giving Kansas a reliable third scoring option. Morris is benefiting from opposing defenses focusing on Aldrich.
No. 12 Tennessee at No. 3 Kentucky (9 p.m., ET, ESPN)
Since entering SEC play, Kentucky has seen defenses transition from man-to-man to zone defenses, hoping to limit the ability of Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins in the paint. In Kentucky’s lone loss to South Carolina, it went just three of 16 from beyond the arc. Opposing teams have also tried to be more patient on offense, limiting the number of possessions for the high flying Kentucky offense.
No. 15 New Mexico at Utah (9 p.m., ET, MTN)
With New Mexico’s win over 23rd ranked UNLV on Wednesday, New Mexico got its fifth win over a top-25 opponent this season and has won eight straight against ranked teams. It was also the eighth win away from home for New Mexico.
"We've been a good road team, make that a great road team all year," coach Steve Alford told the Albuquerque Journal after the win over UNLV. "This was the best environment we've played in all season long. We withstood the runs. I just think we've done a really good job the entire season of getting the job done."
Maryland at Duke
By Brian Edwards
With rumors swirling that Mike Krzyzewski could be a target of the New Jersey Nets for the 2010-2011 season, Duke (20-4 straight up, 15-8 against the spread) returns home to face Maryland on Saturday afternoon with first place in the ACC on the line.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Blue Devils as nine-point home favorites.
Maryland (16-6 SU, 11-7 ATS) comes to Durham on a serious roll. The Terrapins, who are 6-2 in ACC action, have six of their last seven games. Even better, they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine lined affairs.
Gary Williams’ team has had all week to prep for this spot after spanking North Carolina 92-71 last Sunday afternoon. The Terps, who easily cashed tickets as six-point home favorites, were led by Greivis Vasquez. The senior guard dominated the Tar Heels, producing 26 points, 11 assists and five rebounds.
Eric Hayes added 16 points, five assists and four rebounds, while Landon Milbourne chipped in with 15 points, five boards, three steals and three blocked shots.
If first place in the league wasn’t at stake, bettors could probably classify this situation as a letdown spot for Duke since it is coming off Wednesday’s 64-54 win at North Carolina as a 5 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ However, with UNC so down this season, I don’t know that that theory is applicable here.
Jon Scheyer, the senior guard who continues to make a strong case for All-American consideration, had a team-high 24 points against the Tar Heels. Kyle Singler added 19 points and nine rebounds.
But it wasn’t all good news for Duke despite the win at the Dean Dome. Lance Thomas, one of the team’s premier defenders who averages 5.7 points and 4.9 rebounds per game, sustained a severely bruised knee. Thomas is “doubtful” against Maryland and could miss even more time.
The Blue Devils have been steady money makers at Cameron Indoor Stadium this season. They are unbeaten in 13 games, compiling a lucrative 9-3 spread record. This is the first time Duke has been a single-digit favorite at home this year. The Blue Devils are 4-4 ATS in single-digit ‘chalk’ spots both on the road and at neutral venues.
Maryland has played four true road games as an underdog this season, posting a 2-2 SU record and a 3-1 ATS mark. The Terps won outright at FSU and at Boston College.
Duke has won five in a row against the Terps, going 3-1-1 ATS in the process. When these teams met at Cameron last year, the Blue Devils captured an 85-44 win as 15-point home favorites.
The 41-point loss prompted some pundits to imply that Williams was on the hot seat in College Park. Obviously, that notion has been dismissed in the last 13 months.
The ‘under’ is 12-11 overall for Duke, but the ‘over’ is 7-5 in its home games. Meanwhile, Maryland has watched the ‘over’ go 10-5-1 overall. The ‘under’ has cashed in four consecutive head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries.
Tip-off is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
vegasinsider.com.
Miami, Fla. (17-7, 8-7-1 ATS) at Clemson (17-7, 11-10 ATS)
Two teams playing their way out of NCAA Tournament consideration look to get back on track when Clemson plays host to the Hurricanes at Littlejohn Coliseum.
Clemson has gone 2-4 SU and ATS in its last six outings, all inside the Atlantic Coast Conference. One of those two wins came against Florida State on Wednesday night, when the Tigers earned a 77-67 victory as a 5½ point home favorite. Clemson has outscored opponents by 17 ppg at home (76.8-59.7), shooting 46.9 percent from the floor while allowing just 39.5 percent.
Miami has been similarly sluggish lately. After a 15-1 start, the ‘Canes have gone 2-6 in their last eight games (2-5-1 ATS, all in ACC play), though they edged Georgia Tech 64-62 Wednesday in getting the push as a two-point home chalk. This season, Miami has averaged 71.9 ppg and given up 63.3, but on the road, the Hurricanes have been outscored by an average of 67.9-64.4.
Clemson has won and covered in the last two meetings in this rivalry, after a 5-0 ATS run (4-1 SU) by Miami. Last season, the Tigers rolled 91-72 as a three-point road underdog. The pup is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the SU winner is 7-2 ATS in the last nine contests (6-1 ATS last seven).
The Tigers are on an 8-1 ATS tear at Littlejohn and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight starts following a spread-cover, but they also shoulder negative ATS streaks of 2-5 overall, 2-9-1 on Saturday, 1-4 after a SU win and 2-5 against winning teams. The Hurricanes are 12-5-3 ATS in their last 20 Saturday outings, but the ATS streaks turn down from there, including 2-6-1 overall, 1-4 on the road, 3-9-1 in the ACC and 2-6-1 against winning teams.
The under for Clemson is on rolls of 11-4 overall, 5-1 after a SU win, 13-6 on Saturday, 19-7 at home and 7-3 in the ACC. Meanwhile, the over/under has alternated in Miami’s last six games, with the win over Georgia Tech falling short of the 140-point price. Finally, in this rivalry, three of the last four meetings have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEMSON
Maryland (16-6, 11-7 ATS) at (8) Duke (20-4, 15-8 ATS)
The Blue Devils look to stay atop the ACC in a meeting with second-place Maryland at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Duke pulled away in the second half Wednesday night to best archrival North Carolina 64-54 as a 5½-point road chalk for its third consecutive win and fifth in the last six games (4-2 ATS). The Blue Devils are among the top scoring teams in the country, averaging 80.7 ppg (13th), and rank 10th in free-throw percentage (75.2) and 16th in 3-point percentage (39.4). Duke is holding opponents to just 28.3 percent from long distance (eighth).
Maryland has peeled off victories in six of its last seven games (5-1 ATS in lined action) and has had five days off since pounding North Carolina 92-71 Sunday laying six points at home. Like Duke, the Terrapins are also a high-scoring squad (80.2 ppg, 16th), and they sport the sixth-best shooting defense (37.1 percent).
Duke has won the last five clashes in this rivalry (3-1-1 ATS, all as a chalk), including all three last season. The Blue Devils rumbled to an 85-44 home win giving 15 points, won 78-67 laying six points on the road, then earned a 67-61 win in the ACC tournament, though Maryland cashed as a nine-point pup. The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the SU winner is on an 8-1-1 ATS run.
The Blue Devils have covered in just two of their last eight Saturday games, but they are on ATS upswings of 9-4 overall, 6-0 at home, 4-1 in the ACC and 9-4 against winning teams. The Terps are on nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 8-1 overall, 7-1 against winning teams, 5-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 5-1 on the highway and 16-5 in the ACC.
Duke is on “under” stretches of 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 on Saturday, 24-9 in conference play and 23-10 after a spread-cover, and Maryland is on a 4-0 “under” string against winning teams. In addition, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in the last four meetings overall and five of the last six in Durham. However, the Terps are on “over” rolls of 10-4-1 overall and 25-9 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE and UNDER
Missouri (18-6, 10-8 ATS) at (24) Baylor (18-5, 11-5 ATS)
The Tigers head to Waco, Texas, looking for their third straight win when they face Baylor in a Big 12 contest at the Ferrell Center.
Missouri topped Iowa State 65-56 Wednesday, but fell short as a hefty 13½-point home favorite, and the Tigers have now alternated ATS wins and losses over their past eight games. On the season, Mizzou has outscored foes by nearly 16 ppg (80.6-65.0), but on the road, the Tigers are allowing 75.7 ppg and scoring 74.3.
Baylor squeaked past Nebraska 55-53 Wednesday as a 2½-point road chalk, winning SU for the third time in the last four games, but dropping its second straight ATS decision after a 5-1 ATS run. The Bears are putting up 80.4 ppg at home on sterling 49.1 percent shooting, while holding opponents to just 61.1 ppg on 36.1 percent shooting. They are also killing the opposition on the boards, averaging 38.1 per game (eighth) and allowing just 28.
Missouri won and covered in both meetings in this rivalry last year, 89-72 at home giving 6½ points and 73-60 in the Big 12 tourney, also as a 6½-point chalk. Prior to that, Baylor had ripped off eight consecutive ATS victories (4-4 SU). The Bears are 5-0 ATS in the last five Waco meetings, and the pup is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 matchups.
The Tigers own positive pointspread streaks of 4-0 after a non-cover, 6-1 on Saturday and 15-7 in the Big 12, but are in an 0-4 ATS rut following a SU win and have gone just 16-35 ATS in their last 51 roadies. The Bears are on a bundle of ATS surges, including 11-4 overall, 6-1 on Saturday, 5-1 at home, 10-4 against winning teams and 7-3 after a SU victory.
The over for Missouri is on upticks of 4-1 after a non-cover and 7-3 on the road, and the over for Baylor is on tears of 9-2 overall, 7-0 after a SU win, 5-1 after an ATS setback, 8-1 in the Big 12, 4-1 in Waco and 20-8-1 on Saturday. Also, last year’s Big 12 tourney meeting fell short of the posted price, but that was after a 3-0 “over” run in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR and OVER
(23) UNLV (19-5, 15-7 ATS) at San Diego State (17-7, 12-9 ATS)
The Rebels, aiming to get back on track after having their five-game win streak snapped, make a short trek to take on the Aztecs in a Mountain West Conference clash at Viejas Arena.
UNLV hammered then-No. 12 BYU 88-74 last Saturday as a two-point home chalk, but followed up with a 76-66 setback Wednesday laying five points at home to New Mexico. During their five-game run, the Rebels shot 53 percent from the floor; in the loss, they went just 25 of 58 (43.1 percent), including 10 of 30 from 3-point range (33.3 percent). UNLV has averaged 75.3 ppg on the road this year and given up 64.2, and they’ve gone 9-2 SU and ATS away from Las Vegas.
San Diego State has posted four straight ATS victories (3-1 SU), drubbing Wyoming 88-57 as an overwhelming 18-point home favorite Wednesday night to bounce back from an 88-86 loss catching two points at New Mexico last Saturday. The Aztecs have gone 11-1 SU (6-4 ATS in lined games) at home this year, outscoring foes by an average of nearly 18 ppg (74.6-57.0).
UNLV beat San Diego State 76-66 a month ago giving seven points at home, halting a 3-0 SU and ATS run by the Aztecs in this rivalry. In fact, the SU winner has cashed in the last seven meetings between these two.
Despite the loss to BYU, the Rebels remain on a bundle of ATS rolls, including 10-4 overall, 7-0 in roadies, 5-0 after a non-cover, 4-0 after a SU loss, 6-1 against winning teams, 4-1 on Saturday and 7-3 in the Mountain West. Similarly, the Aztecs are on ATS upswings of 5-1 overall, 4-0 in conference play and 19-8-1 on Saturday.
The over is 5-1 in UNLV’s last six Saturday games and 7-2-1 in San Diego State’s last 10 starts, but the under is 9-4 in the Rebels’ last 13 road games, and the Aztecs are on “under” runs of 39-14-1 at home, 11-4 on Saturday and 35-16-1 after a SU win. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last two meetings and four of the last six.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Rhode Island (19-4, 9-10-1 ATS) at (21) Temple (19-5, 14-10 ATS)
Two Atlantic 10 rivals coming off losses to Richmond hook up at the Liacouras Center in Philadelphia, as Temple hosts the Rams.
Rhode Island took a four-game winning streak into Wednesday’s home game against Richmond, but it fell 69-67 as a 5½-point favorite. Although the Rams are 7-2 in their last nine games (all in the Atlantic 10), including 3-1 on the road, they’re just 2-5-1 ATS in their last seven. On the bright side, Rhode Island is 9-2 in road/neutral site contests this season (8-2-1 ATS), averaging 76.2 ppg and allowing 70.1 ppg.
The Owls haven’t been on the court since last Saturday, when they got crushed 71-54 at Richmond as a 1½-point road underdog. Temple is still 7-2 in the A-10 (5-4 ATS), and it holds a half-game lead over Rhode Island in the conference standings. It is also 10-2 at the Liacouras Center (7-5 ATS), with the last home defeat coming to then-No. 1 Kansas on Jan. 2 (84-52 as a seven-point home ‘dog).
Temple needed overtime to dispose of Rhode Island back on Jan. 10, wining 68-64 as a two-point road underdog. The Owls are 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four – with two of the games going into overtime – and they’ve cashed in 13 of the last 19 meetings, including four of five at Temple.
Going back to last season, the Rams are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games, but otherwise in they’re in pointspread ruts of 2-5-1 overall, 3-8-1 in conference, 2-5 versus winning teams and 0-3-1 on Saturday. Temple has failed to cash in four of its last five on Saturday, but from there the Owls are on ATS runs of 27-10 at home, 32-13-1 in the Atlantic 10, 7-3 against winning teams, 4-1 following a SU loss and 7-3 after a non-cover.
Rhode Island is on “under” runs of 9-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 10-3 against A-10 rivals, 8-2 on Saturday and 4-1 against winning teams. Temple carries “under” ‘trends of 18-8 at home, 7-3-1 on Saturday, 6-2 against winning teams and 19-7 after a SU loss. Lastly, the under has been the play in each of the last three meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEMPLE and UNDER
Texas A&M (16-7, 11-6 ATS) at Texas Tech (17-6, 11-8 ATS)
Fresh off Tuesday’s upset victory at Oklahoma, the Red Raiders return to United Spirit Arena, where they will try to avenge last month’s blowout loss to Big 12 rival Texas A&M.
The Aggies hammered Texas Tech 85-70 as a nine-point favorite two weeks ago, which kicked off a three-game winning streak that continued with last Saturday’s 78-71 win over Baylor as a two-point home favorite. Texas A&M is 5-1 (3-3 ATS) in its last six games – all within the Big 12 – and after dropping its first three conference road games (1-2 ATS), it won the most recent one at Missouri (77-74 as a 9½-point underdog on Feb. 3). Still, the Aggies are just 4-6 (6-4 ATS) away from College Station, Texas, where they get outscored by an average of 5 points per game (75-70).
Texas Tech followed up last Saturday’s 81-74 home win over Oklahoma State as a one-point underdog with Monday’s 72-71 win at Oklahoma as a six-point pup. The Red Raiders have won four of their last six games while going 5-1 ATS (after starting out 0-3 ATS in conference), but they have yet to win three straight league contests. Coach Pat Knight’s squad is 13-1 on its home floor (7-2 ATS in lined action), averaging 82 ppg while yielding 70.4.
With their 15-point victory over Texas Tech on Jan. 30, the Aggies improved to 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings (all as a favorite), including a 79-73 win in Lubbock last year as a 1½-point road chalk. The Red Raiders’ only victory in the last five clashes came in last year’s Big 12 tournament (88-83 as a 6½-point ‘dog). The home team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 regular-season series battles, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 12 meetings.
Texas A&M is on ATS hot streaks of 39-19 on the road, 15-7 in Big 12 action, 5-1 on Saturday and 36-17 on the road against opponents with a winning road record. Likewise, the Red Raiders have been cashing tickets in bunches lately, as they’re on pointspread surges of 5-1 overall (all in conference), 7-1 at home, 5-1 versus winning teams and 8-2 after a SU victory.
The Aggies are on “over” runs of 4-0 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a victory, while Texas Tech carries “over” streaks of 36-15-2 overall, 5-2 at home, 5-0 against winning teams and 16-6 after a SU victory. Finally, the last five meetings between these squads have hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS TECH and OVER
Virginia (14-7, 9-7 ATS) at Virginia Tech (19-4, 10-7 ATS)
The red-hot Hokies, who have won three in a row overall and all 12 home games this season, look to keep things rolling when they welcome rival Virginia to Cassell Coliseum for an ACC contest.
The Cavaliers have been idle since last Saturday’s 64-61 overtime home loss to Wake Forest as a four-point favorite, halting a modest two-game SU and ATS winning streak. Virginia is still 10-3 in its last 13 games (6-3 in the ACC), with the last two defeats coming in overtime, including a 76-71 setback to Virginia Tech as a two-point home chalk on Jan. 28. The Cavs are 2-1 SU and ATS in conference roadies.
Virginia Tech followed up last Saturday’s 11-point home rout of Clemson with Wednesday’s 72-52 destruction of North Carolina State as a one-point road chalk. The Hokies have won six of their last seven games; they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five (3-0 ATS last three); and they’re 12-0 at home this year, including 4-0 (3-1 ATS) in ACC contests at Cassell Coliseum. For the season, Seth Greenberg’s squad is outscoring visitors by nearly 20 ppg (74.1-54.8) and outshooting visitors 44.5 percent to 35.3 percent.
Three of the last five Virginia-Virginia Tech clashes have gone into overtime, with the Hokies winning and cashing in all three. Overall, Va-Tech is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in the last five clashes, and despite last month’s 76-71 road win for the Hokies, the host is still 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in the last eight regular-season clashes (with four of those eight requiring overtime). Going back further, the host has cashed in nine of the last 13 meetings. Also, the ‘dog is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Virginia is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a SU defeat and 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Hokies are on ATS tears of 4-1 overall (all in the ACC), 5-1 at home, 4-1 on Saturday and 8-3 after a SU victory.
For the Cavaliers, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 40-17-2 on the highway, 15-5-1 in ACC action, 7-1-1 on Saturday and 19-8 after a SU loss. Similarly, Virginia Tech carries “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-2 after a SU win and 11-3 at home against teams with a losing road record. Finally, last month’s overtime clash topped the posted price, so the total has alternated in the last six meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA TECH
(20) Georgia Tech (17-7, 11-7 ATS) at Wake Forest (17-5, 11-8 ATS)
The Yellow Jackets will attempt to rebound from a heartbreaking last-second loss at Miami, Fla., when they trek to Joel Coliseum in Winston Salem, N.C., for an ACC battle with Wake Forest.
Georgia Tech was on the wrong end of a buzzer-beating shot at Miami on Wednesday, falling 64-62 and coming up just short as a 1½-point road underdog. The Yellow Jackets have split their last six games, going 2-3 in ACC contests. But all three losses came on the highway, and they’ve dropped five of their six road games, going 1-4 (2-3 ATS) when visiting ACC rivals. During its 1-5 slump on the road, Georgia Tech has averaged 68.1 ppg while allowing 74 ppg.
Since getting annihilated 79-58 at Georgia Tech on Jan. 28, the Demon Deacons have ripped off three straight wins and spread-covers, including Tuesday’s 92-85 victory over Boston College, narrowly escaping as a 6½-point home chalk. Wake Forest is on a 5-1 SU and ATS roll (all against ACC foes); it is 5-0 in ACC home games (3-2 ATS); and it is 11-1 at Joel Coliseum this season (5-4 ATS in lined contests). The Deacons’ five conference home victories have come by an average of 7.6 ppg.
Georgia Tech improved to 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five matchups against Wake Forest with its 21-point rout as a 5½-point home chalk 2½ weeks ago, the Jackets’ largest margin of victory in 68 all-time meetings. However, the Demon Deacons have won nine of the last 11 clashes at Joel Coliseum. In fact, the host is 9-1 SU and ATS in the last 10 head-to-head battles and 11-1 (10-2 ATS) in the last 12. Finally, the SU winner is on a 14-1 ATS roll in this rivalry (10-0 ATS last 10).
Despite coming up just short of cashing at Miami this week, Georgia Tech is still on pointspread upticks of 15-7 overall, 8-4 on the highway, 9-5 in ACC action, 13-7 against winning teams and 5-1 on Saturday. The Demon Deacons are riding ATS streaks of 5-1 overall (all in ACC action), 4-1 at home, 5-1 versus winning teams and 4-0 on Saturday.
The under is on runs of 5-2 for the Yellow Jackets overall, 8-3 for the Yellow Jackets in conference play and 5-1 for Wake Forest overall (all in conference). Conversely, the Deacons have topped the total in 12 of their last 16 home games, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams and 5-0 in the last five clashes in Winston Salem.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST and OVER
(12) Tennessee (18-5, 9-10-1 ATS) at (3) Kentucky (23-1, 11-11 ATS)
The Volunteers, who got crushed at Vanderbilt earlier this week, hope to get back on track when they make their annual visit to Rupp Arena for an SEC showdown against Kentucky in the day’s only matchup between Top 25 teams.
Tennessee’s three-game winning streak came to a screeching halt in Tuesday’s 90-71 loss at Vanderbilt, and the Vols dropped to 1-5 ATS in their last six games by falling way short as a three-point road underdog. Tennessee’s last two defeats were to Vandy, and Bruce Pearl’s squad is now just 3-3 in true road games (2-4 ATS).
The Wildcats suffered their first loss of the season at South Carolina back on Jan. 26 (68-62 as a seven-point road chalk), but they’ve rebounded to win their last four in a row in double-digit fashion, splitting the cash in all four games. On Tuesday, Kentucky shook off pesky Alabama and prevailed 66-55, but failed to cover as a 15-point home favorite. In fact, John Calipari’s team has alternated spread-covers in its last 10 games, including all nine SEC contests.
Kentucky has won all 16 of its games at Rupp Arena, but is just 6-8 ATS, despite outscoring visitors by 18.7 ppg (84.7-66) while shooting 50 percent from the field (39 percent from three-point range) and holding opponents to 38.2 percent.
In an otherwise disappointing season last year, Kentucky managed to sweep the season series from the Vols, rolling 90-72 as a six-point road underdog and 77-58 as a three-point home chalk. The Wildcats have won three of the last four meetings, five of the last seven and seven of the last 10, and they’ve covered the spread in each of the last four clashes (including three times as an underdog).
Also in this rivalry, Kentucky has won three in a row and nine of the last 10 at Rupp Arena (4-1 ATS last five), with an average margin of victory of 14 ppg.
In addition to failing to cover in five of their last six games, the Vols are 0-4 ATS in their last four after a defeat and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight after a non-cover. Kentucky is in pointspread ruts of 7-15 in SEC action and 1-4 against winning teams, but it is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 after a non-cover (7-0 ATS last seven after a non-cover).
Tennessee is on “under” surges of 25-10 overall, 9-3 on the highway and 14-6 in SEC action, but Kentucky has topped the total in 11 of 15 overall, eight of 10 at home, four of five on Saturday and six straight after a non-cover. Finally, the last four Vols-Wildcats matchups in Lexington have stayed under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY and UNDER
Saturday Hoops
Iowa at Purdue
Boilermakers (20-3, 10-12-1 ATS) one of the best on the defensive end giving up 62.2 PPG in holding opponents to 40.1% from the field, 36.1% from 3-point range are off an impressive 76-44 win at Big Ten Conference Leading Michigan State. Dropping in class, Boilermakers should handle Hawkeyes that manage just 61.8 PPG overall and a puny 53.4 PPG in conference road games. Makes it a tough challenge for Iowa to keep up. Boilermakers rack up 75.0 PPG with E'Twaun Moore (17.5), Robbie Hummel (16.4) and JaJuan Johnson (14.6) by themselves almost averaging (48.5) what Hawkeyes score on the road in Big Ten play. That said, Purdue laying heavy lumber could falter at the betting window. Boilermakers are 6-6 ATS at home, 4-9 ATS L13 meetings, 3-6 ATS L9 hosting Hawkeyes. As bad as Iowa has been the past 20 in conference play (6-14) they're a profitable 13-7 against-the-oddsmaker with Boilermakers at the opposite end going 7-13 ATS running the hardwood vs conference rivals.
Missouri at Baylor
Baylor will look to extract a little revenge on the team that kept it out of the NCAA Tournament a year ago. Tigers ended the Bears' impressive run through the Big 12 tournament last year, beating Baylor 73-60 in the championship game relegating Bears to the NIT. Mizzou much less of a threat on the road (2-4) have a tough one in Waco where Bears are 11-1 (5-1 ATS). Baylor one of the best rebounding teams in the Big 12 (43.2 RPG) have a huge advantage on the glass over Mizzou (32.5 RPG) a stat that will determine the outcome. Consider Bears knowing Mizzou is 0-5 ATS in road lined games when out-rebounded and that Bears are a profitable 11-4 ATS it's last fifteen lined games, an equally impressive 11-4 ATS vs Mizzou including a perfect 6-0 ATS at home.
Saturday's Prime Tips
By Brian Edwards
**Xavier at Florida**
On the night when UF will celebrate the 10-year anniversary of the 2000 team that went to the national-championship game before losing to Michigan St., Billy Donovan’s team will be in dire need of a win in a non-conference showdown against Xavier.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Florida (17-7 straight up, 11-8 against the spread) as a 4 ½-point favorite. As of early this morning, most betting shops had UF at four with the total in the 144-145 range.
Florida fell to 6-4 in SEC play with Wednesday’s 77-71 loss at South Carolina. The Gators led for most of the game before their atrocious free-throw shooting led to their demise. UF made just 10-of-23 from the charity stripe, including several front-end misses for one-and-one opportunities.
Xavier (16-7 SU, 14-8 ATS) saw its four-game winning streak snapped in last Saturday’s 90-65 loss at Dayton as a 3 ½-point road underdog. The 155 combined points easily eclipsed the 135 ½-point total. Jordan Crawford had 24 points in the losing effort against the Flyers.
Chris Mack is doing an excellent job in his first season since taking over for Sean Miller, who left Xavier to take the Arizona job. The Muskateers have quality wins over the likes of Cincinnati, Charlotte, Dayton and Rhode Island, but all of those have come at home. To their credit, they took Wake Forest (RPI: 12) to overtime in Winston Salem but came up on the short end of a 96-92 decision. The resume could use a quality road win and at Florida against a team from out of the SEC would certainly fit that criteria.
Before finding yet another way to lose in Columbia, Billy Donovan’s team had won six of its seven previous games. Nevertheless, UF finds itself on the bubble for the third straight season after winning back-to-back national championships. As of Friday, I think the Gators would be “in,” albeit barely with a likely seed of 11 or 12. Translation: Florida can’t afford a non-conference loss at home in this spot.
UF has won 11 of its 13 home games at the O-Dome, going 5-4 versus the number. Vernon Macklin erupted for his best game as a Gator in his team’s last home game, a 69-62 win over Mississippi St. last Saturday to cover the three-point spread. Macklin had 20 points and six rebounds against Jarvis Varnado, one the SEC’s best shot blockers ever.
Xavier has not thrived in the road underdog role this year, going winless and amassing an abysmal 1-4 ATS ledger. UF
The ‘over’ is on a lucrative 12-3 run in Xavier’s last 15 games. The Muskateers have seen the ‘over’ go 16-5 overall for the year.
The ‘under’ is 9-6 overall for the Gators, 4-2 in their home games.
ESPN will have television coverage at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Tennessee at Kentucky**
LVSC opened Kentucky (23-1 SU, 11-11 ATS) as an 8 ½-point favorite for this critical SEC East showdown. As of early this morning, most spots had UK favored by 9 ½ with a total of 147.
Has Tennessee (18-5 SU, 9-10-1 ATS) hit the proverbial wall? Perhaps, especially if the Vols’ 90-71 loss Tuesday at Vandy was any indicator. Bruce Pearl’s team has lost three of its last six games and is in the midst of a 1-5 ATS slide.
John Calipari’s team was given fits by Alabama in Tuesday’s 66-55 home win. John Wall had 22 points and 10 rebounds, but the ‘Cats failed to cover the spread as 15-point favorites. DeMarcus Cousins added 16 points and 13 boards.
Vandy jumped all over UT early, taking a 44-27 lead into intermission. J.P. Prince had a team-high 19 points in the losing effort. Melvin Goins scored 11 points for his first double-figure effort since returning from suspension. Wayne Chism finished with 16 points and seven rebounds.
Tennessee is 2-1-1 ATS in four underdog spots this year. The Vols pushed in a one-point loss to Purdue on a neutral court. They won outright at Memphis as short ‘dogs and beat Kansas at Thompson-Boling Arena while catching five points.
UK is unbeaten in 16 games at Rupp Arena, but the ‘Cats are a mediocre 6-8 ATS in 14 lined home games. They are 2-1 ATS in three single-digit ‘chalk’ spots at home, covering against Vandy and Louisville but not vs. UNC.
Kentucky has won five of the last seven head-to-head meetings against UT, going 6-1 ATS. The Wildcats swept the season series last year, winning 77-58 at Rupp Arena. They went into Knoxville and won by a 90-72 count thanks to Jodie Meeks’ epic 54-point performance in which he broke Dan Issel’s UK record for points in a single game.
The ‘over’ is 12-9 overall for Kentucky, 9-4 in its home assignments. The ‘over’ has been more prevalent for UK recently, hitting at an 8-2 clip in its last 10 home games and at an 11-4 rate in its last 15 outings (regardless of venue).
The ‘under’ is on a 7-3 run in UT’s last 10 games. The Vols have seen the ‘under’ go 11-5 overall.
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Georgia senior center Albert Jackson was arrested Thursday night for an outstanding warrant from a hit-and-run incident two years ago. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, UGA head coach Mark Fox was noncommittal about Jackson’s punishment and it was unclear whether or not he’s be available tonight vs. South Carolina. The Dawgs, who were 2 ½-point home favorites as of early this morning, will be looking to avenge a gut-wrenching 78-77 loss in Columbia two weeks ago.
The ‘over’ is on a 9-2 run in Georgia’s last 11 games. Also, the Dawgs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head meetings against South Carolina.
The ‘over’ is 6-1 in the last seven Auburn-Mississippi St. meetings. These SEC West rivals will collide tonight at The Hump in Starkville at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. As of early this morning, most books had the Bulldogs favored by 10-11 points after LVSC had MSU at 13 on the send-out. Rick Stansbury’s team got a nice home win Thursday over Ole Miss to sweep the season series from the Rebels, but it would most likely be on the outside looking in if the season was over today. In other words, this is a monster game for the Bulldogs, one they cannot afford to lose.
One of the more important bubble games Saturday will be played in Milwaukee. As of early this morning, Marquette was listed as an 8 ½-point home favorite for its Big East clash vs. South Florida. The Bulls have covered the spread in seven consecutive games. According to the Tampa Tribune, USF head coach Stan Heath said that Augustus Gilchrist will play 20-30 minutes for the Bulls. Gilchrist, who averages 18.8 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, has been out for 15 straight games with an ankle injury.
Former Oklahoma St. head coach Sean Sutton, who went to Kentucky and then OSU during his playing career, was arrested Thursday night on drug charges.
vegasinsider.com
Tips and Trends
Maryland Terrapins at Duke Blue Devils
Terrapins: Very quietly, Maryland is making a climb up the ACC standings. Maryland has won 6 of their past 7 games to stand at 16-6 SU this season. Maryland can't be happy to see the uniforms of Duke, as they've lost the past 5 meetings SU against them. Maryland has beaten a top 10 ranked team in 13 consecutive seasons, yet haven't won in that scenario yet this season. The Terrapins are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in true road games this season. Maryland has also played 4 other games away from home, in neutral court settings. They are 1-3 both SU and ATS in those specific games. Maryland averages 80.2 PPG, the 2nd most points in the ACC. The Terrapins have scored more than 80 PTS in 4 of their past 6 games. G Greivis Vasquez paces a group of 4 Terrapins averaging double digits in PTS this season. Vazquez averages 18.1 PPG, 3rd most in the ACC. Maryland has held 7 consecutive opponents under 40% shooting.
Terrapins are 7-1 ATS last 8 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Under is 4-0 last 4 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - C Steve Goins (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 71 (Side of the Day)
Blue Devils (-10, O/U 147.5): Duke has responded well to their loss a few weeks ago against Georgetown. Duke has won 3 straight games SU, including back to back conference road games in their past 2 games. Duke is 20-4 SU this season and ranked #8 in the country. The Blue Devils are a perfect 13-0 SU and 9-3 ATS at home this season. The Blue Devils are a perfect 5-0 ATS in conference play at home this year. Today marks the lowest spread the Blue Devils have faced at home, as they've yet to see a single digit spread at home this season. Today is also a milestone for head coach Mike Krzyzewski, who will be coaching his 1,000th game at Duke on his 63rd birthday. Duke has won 15 consecutive games at home SU entering today. Duke averages over 80 PPG this season, but has been held under that total in 6 of their past 7 games. 3 different Blue Devils average more than 16 PPG, led by G Jon Scheyer and his 19.1 PPG this season.
Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS last 6 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - F Lance Thomas (knee) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 74
Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats
Volunteers: Tennessee is 12th in the nation because of their 18-5 SU record this season. Tennessee is certainly going to be motivated for this contest today, as they lost to Vanderbilt SU in their last game. The Volunteers also lost both meetings SU to Kentucky last season. Tennessee has become the only SEC school to finish ahead of Kentucky in the final standings for 4 consecutive seasons. Injuries and suspensions have marred this Volunteers program this season, but winning games hasn't been a problem. Tennessee is 6-4 SU and 4-5-1 ATS in both true road games and neutral court games this season. The Volunteers are 2-1-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Today marks the 1st time this season Tennessee is more than a 5 point underdog. Only 2 current Volunteers average double digits in PTS. G Scotty Hopson averages 13.1 PPG this season including 1.7 3 pointers per game this year.
Volunteers are 1-5 ATS last 6 vs. SEC.
Under is 10-2 last 12 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - G Cameron Tatum (ankle) is questionable.
G Tyler Smith (suspension) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 72
Wildcats (-9.5, O/U 147): Kentucky is showing age beyond their years, as they've won 5 straight games SU since losing their only game of the season. All 5 wins since their loss to South Carolina have come in league play, all by double digits. Kentucky is 23-1 SU, and ranked #3 in the nation. Kentucky is an impressive 16-0 SU at home this season, yet are only 6-8 ATS in that same home scenario. Today will mark the 4th time this season the Wildcats will be a single digit home favorite, going 2-1 ATS in this role this season. The Wildcats are 4-2 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Super freshman G John Wall and F DeMarcus Cousins each average more than 16 PPG to lead the Wildcats. Wall also leads the team with 6.6 APG, while Cousins leads Kentucky with 10.1 RPG this season. Kentucky has scored more than 80 PTS in 3 of their past 4 games, and average 81.6 PPG for the entire season.
Wildcats are 1-4 ATS last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 83 (OVER - Total of the Day)
NCAAB News and Notes
Saturday, February 13
Information on the best of Saturday's college basketball games........
Coach Calhoun returns to sideline for UConn team that lost six of last nine games, five of seven in Big East play. Huskies (+2) lost 71-69 Dec 30 at Cincinnati, shooting 38% from floor- they're 3-3 as home favorites, winning home games by 12-8-16-7 points. . Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 10-16 vs spread. Bearcats are 1-3 as Big East dog.
Maryland won five of last six games, is 7-1 vs spread in ACC, 3-1 as a road dog; their ACC losses are by hoop at Wake, 9 at Clemson. Duke is 5-0 as ACC home fave, winning at Cameron by 21-20-20-14-19 points, but they're off emotional win in Chapel Hill, could let down here. ACC home favorites of more than 9 points are 7-0 vs spread.
Home side won last five Missouri-Baylor games; Tigers lost last two at Waco by 26-11 points. Tigers/Bears both won three of last four games; Mizzou is 2-2 on Big 12 road, losing by 5 at Oklahoma, 19 at Kansas. Baylor is 3-1 as home favorite, winning home games by 31-13-21 points. Big 12 home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-5 vs spread.
Cleveland State (+16) lost 64-55 at Butler Jan 14; Vikings led 31-30 at half, have now won last six games- they're 3-1 vs spread as underdog in league games. Bulldogs are 15-0 in Horizon but 1-4 vs spread in last five games- they're 3-4 as Horizon road favorite. Horizon League home dogs of less than 8 points are 8-3 against the pointspread.
Temple (+3) won 68-64 in OT at Rhode Island Jan 10; Rams shot 37% from floor, 12-26 from line in tough loss. Temple is 4-1 vs pointspread as A-14 home favorite, winning home games by 27-12-5-12-16 points. Rams won four of last five games, are 1-1 as A-14 underdog. Atlantic 14 home favorites of less than 8 points are 7-23 vs spread this season.
San Diego State (+7) lost 76-66 at UNLV Jan 13, going 2-16 from arc, turning ball over 20 times; Aztecs covered their last six games, last three as a favorite. UNLV is 5-0 vs spread on MWC road, winning last four away games- their league losses are by 4-4-10 points. Mountain West home favorites of less than 7 points are 4-6 vs spread.
Arkansas won its last five games, leads SEC West; they beat Alabama at home 71-59 Jan 16 (even). Hogs are 3-1 as SEC road dog, losing by 2 at Miss State, 31 at Kentucky. Alabama lost last four games, losing two by a point, blowing 20-point halftime lead in another. Tide is 2-3 as an SEC favorite. SEC home favorites of less than 8 points are 7-12-1 vs spread.
Cal made 11-20 from arc, won 93-88 (-3.5) at Washington State Jan 14; Bears won five of last seven games, are 3-3 as Pac-10 home fave, taking home games by 26-8-32-4-12 points. Wazzu lost four of last five games, blowing 15-point halftime lead in loss at Stanford Thursday. Double digit home favorites are 3-8 vs spread in Pac-10 games this year.
George Mason is 4-3 on CAA road, 5-2 as CAA underdog; 3-2 on road; Patriots (+6) shot 53% from floor in 71-55 win Jan 2 vs Old Dominion. Monarchs are 2-3-1 vs spread as CAA home favorite, winning its home games by 21-2-11-23-16-19 points. Mason won last game after trailing by 13 at half. Double digit favorites in CAA games are 9-10 vs spread.
Texas Tech (+9) lost 85-70 at A&M Jan 30; Aggies outscored Raiders 21-8 on foul line, were +10 in turnovers (3-13). Tech covered five of its last six games; they won last three home games by 7-10-7 points. Big 12 home favorites of less than 7 points are 11-7 vs spread. Aggies won last six games, covering last four- they're 3-2 as Big 12 home favorite.
Cornell got hammered at Penn last night, now trails Princeton by game in Ivy standings; Big Red is 8-2 in last 10 series games, but lost here by 20 LY, their first loss in last five visits to Jadwin. Cornell is 8-3 on road-- all five of its Ivy wins are by 14+ points. Princeton is 10-1 in last 11 vs D-I opponents- they've won, covered all five conference games.
Florida won six of last eight games, with five of last six decided by 7 or less points; they won last four home games by 14-2-16-7 points. Xavier won 8 of last 10 games, splitting last six on road; they're 1-4 vs spread as an underdog this season. SEC home favorites are 34-25 vs spread in non-league games; A-14 road underdogs are 19-33.
Memphis won its last seven games vs Tulsa, taking last three visits to this gym by 17-23-15 points; Tigers are 3-1 on C-USA road, losing by 10 at SMU- they're 1-1 vs spread as underdog this year. Tulsa is 0-6 vs spread in last six games, but is 5-0 at home in conference action. Home teams are 2-8 vs spread in C-USA games if spread is 3 or less points.
Washington is 0-7 outside Seattle this year, losing Pac-10 road games by 17-17-1-26-12 points; Huskies (-7.5) crushed Stanford 94-61 at home on Jan 14, forcing 20 TOs (+10). Cardinal is 5-0 at home in Pac-10, coming back from down 15 at half to win Thursday, its first win in last five games. Pac-10 home underdogs of 4 or less points are 6-3 against spread.
UAB (+3) won 61-59 at Marshall Jan 23, holding Herd to 39% from the floor, 1-9 from arc; Blazers lost two of last three games, Marshall is 1-4 in last five, so both should benefit from week off. UAB is 1-3 as home favorite, winning at home by 8-1-10 points. Herd is 1-2 as C-USA dog. Single digit home favorites are 10-12 vs spread in C-USA games.
Virginia Tech (+2) won 76-71 in OT at Virginia Jan 28; Hokies are 4-1 in last five series games, with three of four wins in OT. Tech won five of last six games, covered six of last eight; they're 3-1 as ACC home fave, winning home games by 15-1-4-11 points. Virginia's last two losses both came in OT. ACC home favorites of 6+ points are 13-10 vs spread.
Wake Forest (+5.5) lost 79-58 at Georgia Tech Jan 28, shooting 34% for night, 3-18 from arc, only Deacons' loss in last six games- they're 5-0 at home in ACC (3-2 as home favorite) winning home games by 8-2-12-9-7 points. Jsckets are 1-4 on ACC road, losing last three road games by 2-19-2 points. ACC home favorites of 3 or less points are 6-4 vs spread.
Marquette won four of last five games vs South Florida, losing 57-56 in Tampa LY; Bulls lost last two visits here by 2-8 points. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in last four series games. USF covered last seven games, is 4-1 SU in last five. Single digit home favorites are 13-22 vs spread in Big East games. Marquette is 3-2 as Big East home favorite.
Portland (+9) lost 77-72 at St Mary's Jan 16; Gaels made 9-17 from arc, turned ball over only five times (+4). Pilots won five of last six games, are 3-1 at home, losing only to Gonzaga by 3. St Mary's had its 6-game win streak snapped at Gonzaga; they're 7-0 vs rest of the WCC. Home favorites of 4 or less points are 0-4 vs spread in WCC games.
Tennessee is 3-10 in last 13 games vs Kentucky, losing last three here by 19-6-19 points; Vols split last six games overall (1-5 vs spread), losing at Georgia by 15, by 9-19 to Vandy. Wildcats are 8-1 in SEC, 2-3 as home favorite, winning in Rupp Arena by 8-31-13-10-11 points. Home faves of 9+ points are 6-8 against the pointspread in SEC games.