NCAAB News and Notes Saturday 2/21

OU-Texas highlights card
By Brian Edwards

BracketBuster Saturday is here and VI’s Keith Fredrick can get you ready for those games. On the other hand, I have the lowdown for several critical games involving bubble teams from major conferences. In Bonus Nuggets down below, I’ll touch on the Gators, Hokies, Seminoles and a group of bubble teams in dire need of wins Saturday.

**Marquette at Georgetown**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Georgetown (14-10 straight up, 7-12-1 against the spread) as a three-point favorite with a total of 140.

--Marquette (22-4 SU, 10-10-1 ATS) has failed to cover the number in four consecutive games, but the Golden Eagles did bounce back from a two-game losing slide (SU, that is) to win their last two outings. They are off a 79-67 home win over Seton Hall, but their backers had to rip up their betting tickets laying 13 points. The 146 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 152-point tally. (I was on Seton Hall and the ‘under’ in that game for winners.)

--Marquette has a guard-oriented lineup that sort of reminds me of the Arizona team that won the national title in the late 1990s behind Mike Bibby, Miles Simon, Jason Terry and Michael Dickerson. The Golden Eagles have senior point guard Dominic James, who is an excellent ball handler and a physical defender. They also have Big East Player of the Year candidate Jerel McNeal, in addition to Wesley Matthews.

--James averages 11.9 points per game and dishes out a team-high 5.4 assists per contest. McNeal leads Marquette in scoring, averaging 19.9 PPG. He also pulls down 4.7 rebounds and averages 4.0 assists per game. Matthews is scoring at an 18.6 PPG clip.

--If Georgetown has any chance of being considered for an at-large invite to the NCAA Tournament, it has to go to work now. In other words, this is a must-win for the Hoyas, who are 10-3 SU and 4-5 ATS at home.

--Marquette owns a 1-2 spread record in three games as an underdog this year.

--These Big East rivals met at Marquette on Jan. 31 with the Golden Eagles capturing a 94-82 win as six-point home ‘chalk.’ McNeal played out of his mind with 26 points, 11 assists, six rebounds, five steals and three blocked shots.

--The ‘over’ has cashed in each of the last three head-to-head meetings between these schools.

--The ‘under’ is 11-9 overall for Georgetown, but it has seen the ‘over’ go 5-4 in its home assignments.

--The ‘under’ is 12-9 overall for Marquette.

--Tip-off is slated for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**North Carolina at Maryland**

--LVSC opened North Carolina, which has been ranked No. 1 all year long in LVSC’s Top 30 poll, as a 12-point favorite with a total of 163. As of late Friday night, most betting shops had UNC at 13.

--North Carolina (24-2 SU, 10-14 ATS) has won 10 straight games since losing its first two games against ACC opponents. With that said, we can’t ignore its current 6-12 ATS slide in UNC’s last 18 contests.

--Maryland (16-9 SU, 10-7-2 ATS) hasn’t been a home underdog all year. The Terrapins are 4-3 ATS as underdogs (all coming in road games or neutral-court matchups), 1-2 as double-digit ‘dogs.

--This is a crucial game for the Terrapins, who had an RPI of 61 before losing in blowout fashion at Clemson earlier this week. They almost certainly need a win to have a decent shot at getting back to the NCAA Tournament.

--The ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run for UNC and is 14-10 overall for the year.

The ‘over’ is on a 6-2-1 cashing spree in Maryland games. The ‘over’ is 5-3-1 for the Terps in their home assignments.

--UNC is 4-3 ATS as a double-digit road favorite this season.

--ABC will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Oklahoma at Texas**

--LVSC opened Texas (17-8 SU, 9-13 ATS) as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 142.

--Oklahoma (25-1 SU, 12-8-1 ATS) has won 13 in a row since suffering its lone loss of the season at Arkansas. During that stretch, the Sooners are a lucrative 8-3 ATS. They are off a 95-74 win over Oklahoma St. as 16 ½-point home favorites. Blake Griffin produced his 22nd double-double of the year, setting career highs with 40 points and 23 rebounds.

--OU’s Griffin, a sophomore power forward, appears to be the favorite to garner National Player of the Year honors. Griffin averages a team-high 22.8 points and leads the nation in rebounding with 14.2 boards per game.

--Texas has won 10 of its 13 home games in Austin. However, the Longhorns are just 3-7 ATS at home. They are 1-3 ATS as single-digit home favorites.

--Rick Barnes’ team was a consensus top-15 pick nationally back in the preseason. However, if Texas can’t beat OU in this spot, it will be on the proverbial bubble with just a 6-6 record in Big 12 play. The Longhorns have lost four of their last six games, going 1-5 ATS in the process. They are hoping to bounce back from Monday’s 81-66 loss at Texas A&M as two-point road favorites. In the losing effort, Texas leading scorer A.J. Abrams matched his season-low with merely seven points on 3-of-12 shooting from the field.

--Abrams averages 16.8 PPG and is one of the nation’s most explosive shooters from the perimeter. Damion James averages 15.6 points and 9.0 rebounds per game for the ‘Horns.

--Jeff Capel’s squad has won outright in both previous games as an underdog this season. OU beat Purdue 87-82 at Madison Square Garden as a two-point ‘dog. The Sooners also won a 61-53 decision at Kansas St. as 1 ½-point puppies.

--The ‘over’ is 13-6 overall for the Sooners, 7-1 in their last eight games (regardless of venue).

--Totals are a wash for Texas overall (11-11) and at home (5-5). With that said, we should note that the Longhorns have seen the ‘over’ hit in three consecutive games.

--This is ESPN’s featured prime-time game set to tip off at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Five Bubble Teams most in need of a ‘W:’
1-Georgetown (vs. Marquette)
2-Va. Tech (vs. FSU)
3-Cincinnati (vs. Louisville)
4-Miami (vs. Boston College)
5-(tie)Notre Dame and Providence vs. each other at Providence

--Florida is currently listed as a No. 12 seed in ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi’s recently updated “Bracketology” column. Therefore, it certainly can’t afford a home loss Saturday to Vandy, which took a 91-66 beating from the Gators when they met in Music City several weeks ago. Most spots are listing UF as an eight-point favorite.

--Va. Tech will get Jeff Allen back for Saturday’s critical home game vs. FSU. Allen, who averages 14.5 PPG and 8.8 RPG, missed Wednesday’s 81-65 loss at Virginia. The Hokies need this game desperately. Most books have Seth Greenberg’s team as a three-point home favorite for this 8:00 p.m. ET. Tip.

vegasInsider.com

Sitting on the Bubble
By Marc Lawrence

8 Teams to Watch

Get your dancing shoes out. With just three weeks remaining in the regular season portion of the 2008-09 college basketball campaign talk of the NCAA Tournament becomes more and more a matter of serious discussion.

For teams that are sitting ‘on the bubble’ it becomes crunch time and with it the pressure begins to mount. It’s do or die time or better yet, now or never as Elvis would say. And while there are always post-season conference tournaments for most teams to impress the NCAA tournament committee, the truth is most teams’ fate are virtually sealed well before these events tip off. Let me explain.

Outside of winning a conference tournament the fact of the matter is unless teams own both a winning overall and winning conference record for the season the chance of being invited to the ‘dance’ is slim and remote. Teams who post 20 wins for the season often times find that unless they were a ‘double-winner’ the NCAA is likely to kick them to the curb. And for a lot of the right reasons, we might add. They recognize the fact that 20-win teams that ended up the season with a losing record in conference play likely picked up the bulk of the victories against inferior non-conference competition and it just doesn’t cut the mustard in the panel’s eyes.

With this thought in mind, I present of group of eight teams from lined conferences that all have a legitimate shot at 20 wins this season who are all currently .500 or worse in conference play heading into the February 21st weekend. They are:

ACC – Maryland
BIG 12 – Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M
BIG 10 – Michigan and Minnesota
MVC – Drake
SEC – Vanderbilt

Notice that any of the eight teams outlined above could catch fire and close out the season a double-winner (20 wins and winning conference log). Their performance to date, however, says otherwise. Collectively, this unit has posted a sterling 36-23-2 ATS mark outside the conference this season. In conference play, though, they are a combined 41-57-1 ATS.

Worse, in conference games when playing off a double-digit win these wannabes are only 6-16 ATS this season. They are at their absolute worst when squaring off against formidable competition where they stand 7-30 SU and 13-24 ATS against .777 or greater foes. Bring them into these games off a loss and they are 4-13 SU and ATS. Put them up against .777 or greater opponents who beat them in their most recent gathering and they are 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS, including 0-7 SU and ATS in a combined role of playing off a loss and with revenge.

Unless they suddenly change their ways – and I can't recall the last time a leopard changed its spots – it’s likely this group of eight will perform not-so-great under the pressure of having to win over the course of the next three weeks. The heat is on.

Let’s watch and see…

ASA: Movers and Shakers
By ASA

Southern Illinois Salukis:

There might be some line value against Southern Illinois on the upcoming schedule due to a key injury to starting point guard Bryan Mullins. The senior leader was averaging 9.3 PPG and almost 6 assist per game prior to his injury. Mullins has now missed 5 straight games with a stress fracture in his foot and the Salukis clearly miss his productivity and leadership as they are just 1-4 (SU and ATS) since his injury.

Mullins had a 3.4/1 assist-to-turnover ratio, but since his absence the Salukis have had a total of 74 turnovers compared to just 57 assists. Southern Illinois’ increasing turnovers are the main reason that it is allowing 73 PPG the last 5 games (65 prior to Mullins injury). The Salukis lost their last road game by 26 points to Northern Iowa, and now have two road games coming up on the schedule.

Mullins will be re-evaluated next week to see if he can return, but as long as he is out, you might be able to find some line value against the Salukis. Keep an eye on it though, because if he unexpectedly returns, you’ll likely find some value WITH the Salukis.

Michigan State Spartans:

The Spartans were dealt a huge blow when they received news that Raymar Morgan would have to miss time due to mono. Morgan missed four games for the Spartans and they were 3-1 (SU and ATS) without him. They uncharacteristically lost to Penn State at home, before bouncing back with rather unimpressive wins vs. Minnesota, vs. Indiana and at Michigan.

Morgan returned with 14 minutes in their last game, a loss to Purdue. But he was generally a non-factor. Morgan is a key defender, scorer, and rebounder for the Spartans and they’ll need him if they want to stay atop the standings in the Big Ten.

However, he is not in basketball condition right now and won’t be full strength for at least another week. Michigan State has a couple of big conference games coming up on the schedule against Wisconsin (0-4 last 4 match-ups), vs. Iowa and at Illinois. Watch how Morgan progresses over the next few weeks, as you may be able to find some line value against the Spartans if he remains unhealthy.

Good or Great?
By Joe Nelson

This week we will take a look at a few teams that may be undervalued or overvalued based on the national rankings. Any handicapper and most informed fans know the polls do not carry a lot of weight or legitimate relevance but they still can be useful in finding value and knowing where the public perception lies. Look for an adjustment to occur in the results over the next few weeks to get these teams where they deserve to be.

OVERRATED

AP #10 Marquette: The Big East features several high quality teams but Marquette will likely drift towards the middle-of-the-pack with a brutal closing schedule. A murderer’s row schedule is waiting to close out the regular season, hosting Connecticut then going to Louisville and Pittsburgh before hosting Syracuse. Marquette parlayed a favorable early season schedule into a great rise in the rankings and although the Golden Eagles are a good team, they have many weaknesses and are not the same team away from home. Expect several losses in the final weeks of the regular season and barring a great run through the Big East tournament Marquette could enter the NCAA tournament lacking confidence and ripe for an early exit.

AP #15 Kansas: The Jayhawks have a great record but lost the lone game against Missouri and has not yet played Oklahoma or Texas, so three of the five remaining games will be against the best teams in the conference. Kansas did beat Washington and Tennessee in non-conference play but is 1-3 against the top 25 in the Sagarin ratings. There are not many quality wins on the resume and the Jayhawks should still be considered a bubble team as a few more losses would expose very unimpressive computer ratings and a weak strength of schedule. Losses to Syracuse and Arizona could come into play if Kansas is on the bubble and the head-to-head match-up is considered as both of those teams could be fighting for at-large spots as well. The Big 12 will not hold up well in comparisons with the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, or even the Pac-10 so Kansas may not be as safe as most assume.

AP #18 Illinois: The Illini had plenty of skeptics before the 33-point effort at home against Penn State and although Illinois has some nice wins on the resume they also have some truly awful performances as well. Illinois was underrated at the start of the season and was a nice surprise but now they have become an overrated squad that will have a hard time holding on to the perceived #3 spot in the Big Ten. A win over Missouri and a sweep of Purdue, two teams that continue to rise, will get the Illini into the NCAA tournament but with none of the remaining games looking like sure-wins and some struggles away from home Illinois might be a team to go-against in round one. Illinois has caught some favorable situations for some of the biggest wins and the flops in a few key spots are troubling.

UNDERRATED:

AP #5 Memphis: After losing three players to the NBA from last year’s team that was so close to a national title a big drop was expected. After a few early losses the Tigers have been just as impressive in conference play and although Conference USA will not be confused with the ACC anytime soon, this team could be a serious postseason threat. Wins over Tennessee and Gonzaga in mid-season non-conference games adds a little more depth to the profile for the Tigers but the level of domination in most recent games has been alarming. Memphis would not have this type of success in a stronger conference but this will be a confident team entering the postseason and there is more big-game experience on this roster than most other programs.

AP #14 Arizona State: The Sun Devils have lost a few games they should have won but they have played their best against the top teams in the Pac-10 and have emerged as the one team in the conference that could be a serious threat in the national picture. Arizona State does not lead the Pac-10 standings and may not win the conference but they have the most impressive profile of any Pac-10 team and with NBA-talent James Harden the Sun Devils will be the most feared Pac-10 team in the Big Dance. ASU swept UCLA and gets a revenge opportunity with Washington next week which could propel the Sun Devils to the top of the standings and a top ten ranking. Arizona’s has the balance needed for a deep tournament run and has proven it can win on the road.

AP #19 Purdue: The Boilers have had a few hiccups this season but injuries have caused a lot of those problems. With the thrashing of Michigan State last week Purdue proved that if healthy they are the clear front-runner in a very deep and solid Big Ten conference. Purdue’s defense could carry the Boilers to a great tournament run if they can play at a full capacity. Early in the year the Boilers beat Davidson and Boston College and played Oklahoma as tough as anyone has. Sweeping Wisconsin looks even better at this point in the season as the Badgers have turned things around and look like a legitimate tournament team. Robbie Hummel did not play in three of the Big Ten losses and the one loss against Illinois in which he did play came in overtime. He is a key for this team and with a healthy rotation this is a top ten caliber squad.

vegasInsider.com

Oklahoma at Texas Preview
by Matt Severance

With Connecticut losing earlier this week, we will have a new No. 1 team in the polls Monday, and the team at the front of the line is No. 2 Oklahoma. However, the Sooners have a major test at Texas Saturday night on ESPN.

The Horns have been a bit of a disappointment and sit tied with three other teams at fourth in the Big 12 at 6-5. They aren't a lock yet for the NCAA Tournament, and Monday's 15-point loss at Texas A&M, where star guard A.J. Abrams had a season-low-matching seven points, won't help their cause. Earlier wins over UCLA and Villanova will look good on the Horns' resume, but they've lost four of their last six (1-5 ATS) and haven't beaten a Big 12 team with a winning league record.

The Sooners have been off since routing Texas Tech last Saturday, when All-American Blake Griffin had career-highs in points (40) and rebounds (23) to become the first player in Big 12 history with at least 40 points and 20 boards in a game. The Sooners have won 13 consecutive games this season and 14 straight in the Big 12 regular season dating to last year. Oklahoma's 25-1 start to the season is the best in school history and the best by a conference team since Kansas was 34-1 in 1996-97.

Texas has won six of the past seven in this series, but the last one was a Sooner 78-63 victory in Norman on Jan. 12. OU's Griffin had his typical double-double in that one, scoring 20 points and pulling down 10 rebounds. Abrams had 22 points to lead the Horns.

Griffin leads the Big 12 in scoring (22.8 ppg), rebounding (14.2 rpg) and field goal percentage (.638), while ranking fourth in blocks (1.3 bpg). In three games this season, Griffin totaled at least 20 points and at least 20 rebounds. No other player in Big 12 history had more than two such games in a career. Nationally, Griffin ranks first in rebounding and double-doubles (22), second in free throw attempts (9.8 per game), fifth in field goal percentage and 11th in scoring.

It's really pick your poison with Griffin as far as deciding to double team him.

"We feel really good if they come double because we have other good players," said OU coach Jeff Capel. "Blake is a good passer, he is a willing passer. But also, at the same time, if you don't double him, we feel really good about that, too, because of his ability to score and get guys in foul trouble and get to the free throw line."

Abrams leads the Horns in scoring at 16.8 per game and will set a school record on Saturday for most career games played at 135. He shot just 8-for-27 from the field in that earlier loss to the Sooners.

The Sooners actually lead the series 16-14 all-time in Austin, but the last time UT dropped a home contest against an AP Top-5 team was in 2002 (five straight wins). But the Horns are just 3-7 ATS at home this season; OU is 5-2-1 ATS on the road.

In my opinion, this could be a trap for the Sooners, as Texas is desperate and needs this one to salt away an NCAA bid. Plus OU has an even bigger game just 48 hours later at Kansas.

Docsports.com

Bracketbuster Game of Weekend: Bulter @ Davidson
By: Craig Trapp

Bracketbuster game of the weekend is still Butler @ Davidson: When the BracketBusters pairings came out on Feb. 2, Butler and Davidson were a combined 36-4 and easy choices for the top slot in the weekend's made-for-TV matchups. Since then, the two powerful mid-major programs have a combined 7-5 record, and Davidson's Player of the Year candidate Stephen Curry sprained his ankle.

Butler still expects Curry to play and be effective so to beat Davidson on the road this young team will have to play great. Even with both teams losing as of late both look like they are safely in as at large berths. Of course that is worse case scenarios if they would not win there conference tournament.

Butler graduated everyone from their NCAA Tourney team a year ago and were expected to be in the middle of the pack in the Horizon League. The Butler Bulldogs are instead a very impressive young team who has recieved immediate contributions from 2 key Freshman in Gordon Hayward, and Shelvin Mack. Matt Howard the only holdover with lengthy experieince leads the team in scoring and rebounding.

Butler has been very good against the spread this year going 14-9-1 overall. Even with a very young team they are 9-4 against the spread on the road.

Davidson has played a very good preseason schedule and when Curry is healthy they have not disappointed. They beat a very good West Virginia on a neutral floor and played Oklahoma down to the wire in Oklahoma. Without Curry this game tonight will not be close so all hopes for Davidson is that Curry can play and is effective. Fundamental for this team are very good but athletically they only have one game breaker, Curry.

Davidson is below average this year against the spread going 11-12 overall this year and only 4-6 at home against the spread.

Everybody is looking forward to this bracketbuster maybe more than any other mid major game ever. Of course that is if Curry is healthy. Oddsmakers have not set the line for this game but if Curry does play expect this line to be close with Butler being favored by -2!

College cram session: The burning questions
By DAVID PAYNE

I have no answers. Here are some questions, instead.

•Are we poised for another Syracuse flop?

The Orange has dropped six of seven against the number.

That includes blowing a 16-point lead with eight minutes to play against Georgetown last Saturday. Jim Boeheim’s bunch managed to pull out a 4-point overtime win. I had ‘Cuse -4.5.

In my eyes, Syracuse is always a bit overrated. The Orange is 71-81-3 against the spread in the last five seasons. They’re 10-12 ATS this year.

So why does Syracuse get so much love?

Well, first of all, the Orange always oozes talent. They always have a tough looking white guy with game (Gerry McNamara, Eric Devendorf) and a few guys that can dunk. They’re easy to like and when they play well, they can look very good.

Being in the Big East also makes them ESPN darlings, which, in turn, makes them public darlings.

It all adds up to line inflation.

Fade the Cuse down the stretch.

•Is Duke done?

Thursday night’s 76-69 win over St. John’s changes absolutely nothing.

Duke is athletically challenged and is the fourth best team in the ACC.

Mike Kryzewski knows it too.

Against St. John’s he inserted freshman Elliott Williams into the starting lineup to add what Kryzewski called “verve” to his team. It worked … against St. John’s.

Seriously, who is the last dynamic athlete Duke has had? Corey Maggette?

That was 10 years ago.

Fade the Devils down the stretch. (Fade the Devils would be a great name for a heavy metal song, by the way.)

•Do you consider Oklahoma an elite team?

Nope, and you’re talking to a born-and-raised Boomer Sooner.

I don’t believe OU’s surrounding parts can keep up with a North Carolina, Pittsburgh or UConn.

But not many teams can keep up with Blake Griffin either, especially in the Big 12.

It will be interesting to see how Kansas’ big man, Cole Aldrich, fairs against Griffin on Monday.
Straight from a homer’s fingertips, I’m expecting a strong finish in the Big 12 for the Sooners. But we’ll be bounced from the dance somewhere around the Elite Eight.

•Do you realize Memphis and Kansas, last year’s championship game participants, are a combined 31-13-3 against the spread?

Lookout for Lookaheads

Who’s looking ahead to next week’s big games?

Florida at LSU, Tuesday: Both teams enter the weekend atop their SEC division. After blasting Vanderbilt in late January, it would be very easy for the Gators to be a little overconfident when the Commodores visit Saturday.

UConn at Marquette, Wednesday: The Eagles better not look ahead to the Huskies with a desperate Georgetown team visiting Saturday. The same goes for UConn, which hosts South Florida Saturday.

March to March

We’re less than a month away from the NCAA tournament. Each week in Cram Session, I’ll provide you with some info to consider as you prepare for betting the Big Dance. This week: Betting the No. 1 vs. No. 16 games.

Betting the 1-16 games can be difficult. It’s hard for me to bet against teams that I consider among the best in the nation, no matter how many points I’m laying.

In the past six tournaments, the top seeds on average have been favored in the first round by an average of 24.6 points. Their average margin of victory – 25.3. Not a lot value there. But, recently, the big boys have been more dominant in their opening games. In the past two tournaments, the top seeds are 6-2 ATS in the first round with an average margin of victory of 31.75 ppg.

Another note about 1-16 games: Six of the last eight have gone over the total.

College basketball bettors' TV guide
By MATT SEVERANCE

There's an intriguing matchup in nearly every time slot this weekend in college basketball, so sit back and enjoy. Selection Sunday is just three weeks away.

Butler Bulldogs at Davidson Wildcats (Saturday, noon, ESPN)

Some experts say that Davidson might not make the NCAA tournament as an at-large if the Wildcats don't win the Southern Conference tournament. Davidson entered the week with only one win over a team ranked in the top 85 in the RPI. Obviously beating No. 22 Butler in this BracketBuster game would only help.

Davidson didn't have star Stephen Curry (sprained ankle) Wednesday and it showed, as the Wildcats were crushed by The Citadel. That was the first game in three seasons the Curry, the nation's leading scorer at 29 points per game, didn't play. He is expected to be a game-time decision Saturday. Brandon McKillop would start if Curry can't go.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Maryland Terrapins (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)

The Heels beat Maryland 108-91 earlier this season by hitting a season-high 16 3-pointers for their first win in the series since 2006. Wayne Ellington had a season-high 34 points to lead UNC, which finished one 3-pointer shy of the school record.

Maryland started to have NCAA tournament dreams after that loss to the Heels, winning two in a row and reaching .500 in the ACC before allowing Clemson to shoot 57.8 percent from the field Tuesday night in the Tigers' 93-64 victory. The Terps host Duke following this game with Carolina and they probably need to win both to get an NCAA bid.

North Carolina has won 10 games in a row and got freshman center Tyler Zeller back in Wednesday's win over N.C. State. He played eight minutes and had two points, three rebounds and four fouls after sitting out the majority of the year with a broken wrist.

“I'm a little behind on reaction speeds and getting to places,” Zeller told reporters.

Utah State Aggies at Saint Mary's Gaels (Saturday, 5 p.m., ESPN2)

Utah State had the longest winning streak in the nation at 19 games before being upset by Boise State last Saturday. But the Aggies bounced back with an easy win over Cal State Bakersfield on Wednesday.

Saint Mary's has been very uneven since losing star point guard Patrick Mills. The Gaels have lost four of seven. Their only home loss this season came in the rematch with Gonzaga.

This game definitely loses some luster without Mills, although both teams might be shaky at-large NCAA teams as things stand today. Utah State is 3-0 all-time in BracketBuster games and 4-1 all-time against Saint Mary's.

Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Longhorns (Saturday, 9 p.m., ESPN)

Texas is approaching NCAA bubble status. It has lost four of six overall (1-5 ATS) and hasn't beaten a Big 12 team with a winning record in conference. But Texas has been money against ranked teams at home, winning nine in a row in Austin against Top-25 teams and five in a row against Top-5 teams. UT's last home loss to a top-five club was in February 2002 to Kansas.

Villanova Wildcats at Syracuse Orange (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS regional)

With Arinze Onuaku and Andy Rautins nursing injuries, the Orange have welcomed the eight-day break following their win over Georgetown last Saturday.

"The guys are playing a ton of minutes," said SU's Paul Harris. "This week will mean a lot.”

Syracuse has lost five of seven and six of nine, while Villanova has won seven of eight, including a 17-point victory over the Orange earlier this month in which Wildcats center Dante Cunningham dominated with 31 points and nine rebounds. Villanova has won four of its last five against Syracuse.

Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan State Spartans (Sunday, 3 p.m., ESPN)

Senior forward Joe Krabbenhoft has led a Badger resurgence, as UW has won five games in a row to likely get off the NCAA bubble. Krabbenhoft has had 43 points, 19 rebounds, 10 steals and nine assists over his last three games. In addition, UW isn't turning the ball over during the streak, averaging just over seven giveaways per game.

Michigan State turned the ball over 22 times and scored a season-low 54 points in falling at Purdue on Tuesday night. The Spartans got back second-leading scorer Raymar Morgan in that game but he still was a little weak from the illness that has plagued him for a month. He had five points and four rebounds in 14 minutes. Coach Tom Izzo expects Morgan's stamina to get better each game.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue Devils (Sunday, 7:45 p.m., Fox Sports Net)

These two enter the weekend in a four-way tie for second place in the ACC, so this game could be huge in terms of seeding for the conference tournament.

Duke lost the first meeting this season, 70-68, which sent the then-No. 1 Blue Devils into a mini-slump, as they have gone just 3-3 since. Wake has an identical record since that upset, with all three losses coming on the road. Wake is 4-0 against ranked teams this year.

Arizona Wildcats at Arizona State Sun Devils (Sunday, 10 p.m., Fox Sports Net)

These are the two hottest teams in the Pac-10. Arizona has won seven in a row and the Sun Devils are winners of four in a row and have a chance to take the conference lead with a win here (depending on what Washington does Saturday at USC). ASU has never won the conference crown.

Arizona State is going for its second straight season sweep of its rival, although Arizona hasn't lost since that six-point defeat earlier this season. The Sun Devils are 10-0 all-time against their in-state rival when they are ranked.

Tips and Trends

#22 Butler at Davidson

Butler: The Bulldogs have lost two in a row for the first time in over two years and now face the tough task of visiting Davidson. They have had opportunities to clinch at least a share of their third straight Horizon League championship in the last two games but came up short both times. “We got out-toughed the whole game,” Butler guard Gordon Hayward said after Wednesday's 63-60 loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee. “We didn’t really deserve to win. We played hard out there, but we weren’t playing the right way.”

Butler is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games.
The OVER is 6-2 in Butler's last 8 road games.

Key Injuries - F Avery Dukes (knee) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 65

Davidson (-5, O/U 134): Stephen Curry is listed as questionable for this game due to an ankle injury, but insiders expect him to try to play. Curry is the nation's leading scorer at 29 points per game, and the Wildcats are clearly not the same team without him. They are coming off a 64-46 home loss to The Citadel on Wednesday as Curry missed the first college game of his career. “We’re a team of role players, and when part of that team is missing, it affects all of us,” Davidson guard Brendan McKillop said. “When that player is the leading scorer in the nation, that loss is felt exponentially.”

Davidson is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Saturday games.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Davidson's last 5 games overall.

Key Injuries - G Stephen Curry (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 70

#11 Marquette at Georgetown

Marquette: The Golden Eagles realize they are within reach of the top spot in the Big East after beating Seton Hall on Tuesday and must continue to win down the stretch during their toughest part of the season. They play three of their next four games on the road and host #1 UConn in between. In addition, three of Marquette's next four opponents reside in the Top 10, but Georgetown is not one of them. “That ties the number of wins in Marquette history in the Big East and we are thankful for that,” Golden Eagles coach Buzz Williams said. “After I got through saying that Dominic (James) said, ‘Here comes the gauntlet.’ So I guess that’s what they must be saying on the radio or TV.”

Marquette is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games overall.
The UNDER is 4-1 in Marquette's last 5 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 69

Georgetown (-3.5, O/U 141): The Hoyas bounced back big-time from a skid of seven losses in eight games by crushing South Florida 65-40 on Wednesday. They still have a shot to make the NCAA tournament but will need a strong finish, beginning with this game against Marquette before Louisville comes to town on Monday. "We’re not where we want to be, but I have extreme confidence in what this team can and will accomplish this year, now,” said Georgetown coach John Thompson III. The Hoyas lost the first meeting between the teams at Milwaukee on January 31st, 94-82.

Georgetown is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games overall.
The UNDER is 3-1 in Georgetown's last 4 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 72

#3 North Carolina at Maryland

North Carolina (-12.5, O/U 163): The Tar Heels have lost two of the last three meetings with Maryland and did not play well defensively in a 108-91 win over the Terps at home on February 1st. They rank 11th in the ACC in scoring defense - allowing 71.9 points per game - which has led to opponents covering four of their last five games. “Teams are just as gifted offensively and can score right with us, we’re not going to win those games,” North Carolina guard Wayne Ellington said. “We’ve got to get teams’ percentages down.”

North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games overall.
The OVER is 6-2 in North Carolina's last 8 games overall.

Key Injuries - F Will Graves (suspension) is OUT.
G Marcus Ginyard (foot) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 90 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Maryland: The Terps begin a tough stretch by hosting North Carolina, which is then followed by games against Top 10 teams in #9 Duke and #8 Wake Forest. They are 1-5 against ranked opponents this season after getting crushed at #13 Clemson on Tuesday, 93-64. Still, Maryland head coach Gary Williams believes in his team. “We’re a good basketball team," Gary Williams said. "We’ve got some big games coming up,”

Maryland is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 Saturday games.
The OVER is 13-4 in the last 17 meetings.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 77

#6 Memphis at UTEP

Memphis (-9, O/U 143.5): The Tigers feel like they are not getting enough respect despite winning 18 straight games, which is the longest current streak in the nation. They have also won 53 straight games against conference opponents during the regular season following a 90-47 rout of SMU on Wednesday. “We’ve got a chip on our shoulder,” Memphis junior Shawn Taggart said. “A lot of people are saying that UConn has a better defense. That Pittsburgh has a better defense. North Carolina. But in the country, right now, I don’t see anybody playing better than us defensively.”

Memphis is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games vs. Conference USA.
The UNDER is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings.

Key Injuries - G CJ Henry (foot/knee) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 81

UTEP: The Miners have lost the last five meetings with Memphis and will be looking to avoid their 12th straight loss to a ranked opponent. UTEP head coach Tony Barbee is a former assistant coach with the Tigers and has turned his new team into an offensive machine. The Miners are averaging 76.2 points per game thanks to senior Stefon Jackson, who has averaged 27.8 points in the last four home games. Jackson is the second-leading scorer in Conference USA with 23.1 points per game.

UTEP is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 games overall.
The OVER is 8-1 in UTEP's last 9 Saturday games.

Key Injuries - C Kareem Cooper (personal) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 72

#2 Oklahoma at Texas

Oklahoma: The Sooners will be going for their first 14-game winning streak since a 14-0 start back during the 1987-88 season. They advanced to the Final Four that year and will also be looking to avoid a four-game losing streak in Austin. One player that could be the difference is guard Willie Warren, a Fort Worth native who is the team's second-leading scorer and totaled 17 points and five rebounds in the last meeting with Texas back on January 12th. Oklahoma beat the Longhorns (ranked 7th at the time), 78-63. Texas is just 5-4 since then.

Oklahoma is 13-0 SU in its last 13 games overall.
The OVER is 7-1 in Oklahoma's last 8 games overall.

Key Injuries - G Ray Willis (suspension) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 73 (Side Play of the Day)

Texas (-1, O/U 141.5): The Longhorns have won five straight games at home against Top 5 opponents and will try to become the second team to end a 13-game winning streak in six days. Pitt halted #1 UConn's 13-game winning streak on Monday, and Texas will need to find a way to stop Oklahoma's Blake Griffin, who set career highs with 40 points and 23 rebounds in a 95-74 win over Texas Tech last Saturday. “Have you guys ever seen the movie, ‘The Terminator?’ That’s what that kid is like,” Red Raiders head coach Pat Knight said of Griffin. “That kid has no facial expressions. He just plays and it’s like every kid out there on him is like Sarah Connor, and he’s just going to take his time and kill him.”

Texas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games overall.
The OVER is 3-0 in Texas' last 3 games overall.

Key Injuries - NONE

PROJECTED SCORE: 70

CBB Streaks & Notes!!
sportspic.com

Northern Iowa vs Siena

Siena got lots of notice last year in Bracket Buster Weekend going into Boise St smacking Broncos 93-70 as 8.5 point underdogs. Then, Saints defeating Vandy 83-62 as 6.5 point dogs in the first round of the NCAA tournament raised their stock even further. Saints 21-6 (11-12-1 ATS) along with a perfect 13-0 (6-5-1 ATS) mark at home this season are in ca$h territory. Saints are 5-1 ATS their last six hosting a team with a winning road record. Meanwhile, Panthers staring up at Creighton in the MVC and off back-2-back losses may be concentrating more on it's own conference standings than on the team from the MAAC. Panthers 1-10 ATS in their last eleven non-conference games are in ca$h draining territory.

Utah State vs St. Mary's

Aggies (25-2, 11-8-1 ATS) running away with things in the WAC (12-1, 8-5 ATS) take on St. Mary's of the WCC conference. Aggies one of the better shooting teams in the nation (49.8%) and owning a tenacious defense (59.7 PPG) will be a handful for Gaels minus their top man Patrick Mills (18.8 PPG). Aggies are 11-2 against-the-number the past thirteen on the highway, 10-1 ATS last eleven visiting a team with a winning home record of .600 or better and 10-3 ATS last thirteen non-conference games.

Saturday Research
By Indiancowboy

Indiana vs. Purdue

At this point, if you take Indiana for the whole game, it is a bit frightening. I feel bad for anyone who was on this team against the Badgers as they were down by 2 at the half only to lose the cover and loes by double-digits after the second half - and that was in a game that totaled around 120 which is even tougher to do. Purdue just beat Michigan State by nearly 20 at home so who knows what they have in store for the Hoosiers who lost by 30 to Michigan State on the road. The only way I think the Hoosiers cover here is through the backdoor frankly.

Hofstra vs. Fairfield

To me, Hofstra has reallly turned things around. They are a top 175 team and in fact, playing even better and they face a Fairfield team who is a top 180 team. In many ways, this game reminds me of VCU vs. Nevada. The better team being VCU but Fairfield will have the home crowd behind them here in this bracket buster. This team has had a great home stand beating James Madison (twice- last time in double OT) and ODU. This team now faces a Fairfield team that is desperate for a win though losing to Niagara twice and then to Marist on the road. Fairfield did beat Drexel at home who is a top 125 team, but once again, I lean slightly on Hofstra, but it seems the game will be dicey for certain.

St. Peter vs. Youngstown State

If you are looking for a good dog today, take a gander at St. Peter catching around 8 at Youngstown State today. This should be a low scoring game and St. Peter has really improved as the season has gone on winning against Rider and Iona on the road and even taking care of Marist by 10 at home. What makes me a bit weary is that YS has a great SOS around top 125, but in the same token, they have lost to teams outside the top 200 as well as beating teams like Cleveland St. at home and nearly beating them on the road losing by 4 in their last game. I think St. Peter likely hangs tough here but in a low scoring see-saw, the points can be nice. Small lean on St. Peter as Youngstown st. comes off a loss.