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NCAAB News and Notes Saturday 2/26

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Saturday's Best NCAAB Bet

Syracuse Orange at Georgetown Hoyas (-1.5, 134.5)

Georgetown will be playing its first game without point guard Chris Wright, who suffered a broken left hand in Wednesday's 58-46 loss to Cincinnati. Wright underwent successful surgery on Friday and could make it back for the NCAA Tournament. But not this weekend.

For now, the Hoyas will have to deal with his absence. They had won nine of 10 games prior to Wednesday's setback and it will be tough to get back on track without their leading scorer, who averages 13.1 points per outing. Freshman Markel Starks and sophomore Vee Sanford are expected to see increased minutes.

This season's previous meeting between the two Big East rivals came on February 9 at the Carrier Dome, where Georgetown scored a 64-56 road victory. Wright had six points, nine assists and five rebounds in the victory. Austin Freeman led the way with 14 points for the Hoyas, who won the rebounding battle 28 to 21 and held Syracuse to 39.6 percent shooting (including 4-of-16 from beyond the arc).

Georgetown will soon find that life without Wright is just wrong.

Pick: Syracuse

 
Posted : February 25, 2011 10:01 pm
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College hoops betting TV guide
By Dave Carey

Missouri Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats (-3.5, 149.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN

Jacob Pullen is finally looking like the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year. Pullen has dropped 27 points in consecutive games, including the team’s most recent four-point win at Nebraska. In the 61-57 win, he dropped 20 in the second half, thanking his brother for telling him to get more aggressive.

"Beginning of Big 12, I thought I was playing well, but just really thought toward the end of games I wasn't asserting myself and I was being too passive," said Pullen. "Lately, my brother has really been telling me I gotta force the issue and even my teammates. Curt (Kelly) and (Jamar Samuels) really just saying I gotta make plays and make things happen toward the end of games so we can win games."

Syracuse Orange at Georgetown Hoyas (-1.5, 134.5), 12 p.m., CBS

The Hoyas will be without lead guard Chris Wright when they host the Orange this weekend. Wright broke a bone in his left, non-shooting hand in a loss to Cincinnati Wednesday. The guard is averaging 13.1 points per game this season, but had been even better the previous three contests, averaging 21.7 points per night on 50 percent shooting over that span.

"Our medical staff is optimistic, and although we do not have an exact timetable, we expect to have Chris back before the end of the season," coach John Thompson III.

Wichita State Shockers at Missouri State Bears (-1, 135), 1 p.m., ESPN2

Aaron Ellis is getting clutch minutes for the Shockers. Ellis, a senior, is averaging just 4.7 points per game, but notched eight on 4-for-6 shooting in a 67-65 win over Creighton earlier this week. Of the four field goals, the final one was a bank shot that won the game and gave his team the victory on senior night. Look for the team to continue to use Ellis in a short-to-midrange game.

“I always tell (Ellis), if I drive, just dive to the basket and I’ll find you,” Shockers guard Joe Ragland said. “It kicked in at the right time. He dove right to the basket. He got a layup for the game.”

St. John’s Red Storm at Villanova Wildcats (-6.5, 134.5), 2 p.m., ESPN

Who would have thought that the Wildcats would have trouble scoring? Including a 69-64 loss to Syracuse this week, Villanova is a mediocre 5-6 in its past 11 games. The team has made just 40.7 percent or worse from the floor in six of those games, going 1-5 in those contests.

Against Syracuse, the team hit rock bottom, making a horrendous 32.3 percent of their shots. Sophomore guard Maalik Wayns is also questionable, as he missed the second half against Syracuse with back spasms.

BYU Cougars at San Diego State Aztecs (-3, 141), 2 p.m., CBS

To beat the visiting Cougars, the Aztecs will have to crack the BYU zone. The team has been mixing in more and more of a zone look the past few games with amazing results. Since giving up 86 points to New Mexico late last month, the team has given up more than 64 points only once in six straight games – all wins.

“I think defensively we’ve been better. We changed things up a little bit. We are playing a little bit more zone. I think [with] our man matchups, guys are doing a much better job of their individual responsibility with their man,” BYU coach Dave Rose said. “We don’t have to bring a second defender as much.”

Memphis Tigers at UTEP Miners (-4, 134.5), 3 p.m., ESPN2

Antonio Barton is good to go for the Tigers. Playing 33 minutes in a win over Houston, the freshman dropped 10 points and added three rebounds, two assists and two steals. However, after the game, he was so dehydrated he spent the ensuing day at the hospital getting pumped back full of liquid. Barton was released from the hospital Thursday and given a clean bill of health.

"They did all types of tests. They were very thorough just to make sure there were no issues. Everything came back negative in terms of the tests; everything was clean," Memphis coach Josh Pastner said. "They released him with no restrictions."

Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma Sooners (+14.5, 144), 4 p.m., ESPN

The Jayhawks needed to find a replacement for suspended junior Tyshawn Taylor at the point. Kansas might have a new full-time starter in sophomore Elijah Johnson. In a 92-65 win over Oklahoma State, he held the Cowboy’s Keiton Page to a mere eight points on 2-of-11 shooting. Johnson also dropped in 15 points himself on just six shots.

“He is our starter. I mean there is no doubt about that,” Kansas coach Bill Self said. “Whether or not he remains a starter for how long, who knows? We’re going to Norman ... he’s going to have the ball in his hands, so we’ll see how that goes.”

Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats (-8, 136.5), 4 p.m., CBS

Wildcats forward Terrance Jones had 10 points, eight rebounds and four blocks in an overtime loss against Arkansas. Normally, that would be a good performance for the star freshman. But not when he was continually abused down low by Razorbacks sophomore Marshawn Powell, who had 22 points and 10 rebounds and dominated the paint.

"He just went right at him (Jones)," Wildcats coach John Calipari said. "He wasn't afraid of him. It was a toughness thing. Again, we need to learn."

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers (-11, 135.5), 6 p.m., ESPN

Not even Coach Bruce Pearl has any idea who will play for his Volunteers. In a 60-51 win at Vanderbilt, he followed a “gut feeling” to give Jeronne Maymon nine minutes after he had touched the court only once in the past 11 games. He also gave 10 minutes to freshman Trae Golden, who came through with a team-high three assists. Golden hadn’t played since Feb. 12.

"We'll look at Mississippi State,'' Pearl said, "and see how practice goes, knowing we have some options available to us.''

Seton Hall Pirates at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10, 134), 7 p.m., ESPNU

Senior captain Charleton Scott is limping. Missing four games last week with a tear in his hamstring, Scott now is struggling with a sprained right ankle and spent the last few minutes of a win over Providence with his foot wrapped in ice. He had 10 rebounds against the Friars and has grabbed 10 or more caroms in four of the past five games. Scott is questionable against the Pirates.

“He actually got off the plane better than I thought; he didn't need crutches,” said Notre Dame coach Mike Brey.“I think we'll really take a look at him Friday and see where he's at. I was more encouraged seeing how he was walking without any crutches from the plane to the bus.”

Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies (+4.5, 142), 9 p.m., ESPN

Freshman guard Tyler Thornton continues to give the Blue Devils a boost. Whether getting a spot start or coming off the bench, he has succeeded in both roles. In a recent win over Temple, he came off the pine in the first half to score six points in the opening 20 minutes for the second straight game. It might not seem like much, but it’s huge for a streak-shooting team that has struggled to find rhythm at times this year.

Texas A&M Aggies at Baylor Bears (-2.5, 128), 9 p.m., ESPNU

The Aggies have won three straight road games thanks to the development of a low post game. Forward David Loubeau dropped a career-high 22 points in a recent win over Oklahoma State. Over the past six games, he has cracked double-figures six times as he averages 11.3 points and 5.1 rebounds per game this season.

“David pretty much carried us the whole game,” said Aggies guard Kris Middleton. “We just tried getting the ball to him and let him go to work.”

 
Posted : February 25, 2011 10:02 pm
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BYU at San Diego State: What Bettors Need to Know
By Sean Murphy

BYU Cougars at San Diego State Aztecs (-3, 141)

Will the winner of this game earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament?

Maybe.

It really all depends on whether they can run the table in the Mountain West Conference Tournament a couple of weeks from now, but we're obviously talking about the two biggest favorites to claim the title.
Jimmer Fredette is scoring more than 27 points per game.
No matter how you look at it, this appears to be the game of the weekend. Let’s take a deeper look.

History lesson

BYU has owned this series since March of 2008, taking six of the last seven meetings SU and five of those decisions ATS.

Of course, the Cougars and Aztecs have already met once this season, with BYU prevailing 71-58 as a 5.5-point home favorite. The Cougars actually trailed that game at halftime before rallying to outscore San Diego State 41-27 in the second half.

This has been an “under” series all the way. Dating back to January of 2008, seven of nine matchups have played under the number.

The Jimmer show

Cougars guard Jimmer Fredette has been all the rage this season, and for good reason. He’s averaging an NBA-like 27.4 points per game and hasn’t been held under 21 points since a game against Fresno Pacific on New Year’s Day. Keep in mind, he played only 22 minutes in that contest.

Fredette had one of his best games of the season against San Diego State back in late January, pouring in 43 points in a winning effort. Last year, Fredette scored 56 total points in two matchups with the Aztecs.

"Every shot he takes he believes is going in, and he has the ability to create space and square up his body to the rim. It may seem like he's off balance, but those are shots that he makes day in and day out,” SDSU guard D.J. Gay told reporters of Fredette.

As good as Fredette has been, the Cougars are still a mediocre 5-4 ATS when he scores more than 30 points in a game this season.

Home cooking

San Diego State has yet to fall at home this season, posting a perfect 14-0 record to date.

The Aztecs haven’t exactly been a covering machine here, however, as they’re just 7-5 ATS. They’re an even 3-3 ATS at home in Mountain West Conference action.
SDSU could take a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
While SDSU is already known as one of the best defensive teams in the nation, it has taken it to a whole different level on this court.

The Aztecs are holding the opposition to just 55.6 ppg on 38.7 shooting as hosts this season. That’s not to mention the fact that they’re outrebounding opponents by more than seven boards per contest.

With all of that said, this remains a team focused on the task at hand.

"We're enjoying the success, but we're not worried about records. We want to win the next one. We'll worry about all things that happen in terms of 'first this, first that' hopefully in April,” SDSU head coach Steve Fisher said following his team’s win over Air Force last weekend.

Key trends

BYU is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss, as is the case here.

The over has cashed in six of the Cougars’ last eight road games.

San Diego State loves playing on Saturdays. The Aztecs are 30-12-1 ATS in their last 43 lined Saturday contests.

The under is 50-21-1 in the Aztecs’ last 72 lined home games

 
Posted : February 25, 2011 10:04 pm
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Early Saturday Double
By Judd Hall

Saturday is loaded up with its customary allotment of college basketball games on the board. And it all starts at 12:00 p.m. on CBS at the Verizon Center as Syracuse and Georgetown square off.

When these two teams met at the Carrier Dome on Feb. 9, Georgetown (21-7 straight up, 15-12 against the spread) came through with a 64-56 victory as a 4½-point road underdog. The Hoyas had four players register double-digits in points. Hollis Thompson was the main cog in G-Town’s attack that night with 11 points, five boards and a pair of assists. The Orange’s C.J. Fair put in 12 points and five rebounds in a losing effort.

Syracuse (23-6 SU, 11-16 ATS) dropped its next game three days later 73-69 at Louisville. But Jim Boeheim’s team has bounced back strong with three straight wins, covering the number in two of them. The Orange most recently beat Villanova as 3½-point road ‘dogs 69-64 on Feb. 21 thanks to a horrid shooting night for the ‘Cats.

The Hoyas have fared quite well at home this season by going 10-3 SU and 5-7 ATS in the games that were on the board. The ‘under’ has been a great play in those matches with a 9-3 mark. Syracuse is just 3-3 SU in its last six Big East roadies, but 4-2 ATS.

Georgetown has won and covered the last two meetings they’ve had with the Orange. However, Syracuse went 4-1 SU and ATS in the five tests prior to those games. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head contests.

San Diego State (27-1 SU, 16-10 ATS) has had a great season so far. And they can have even capped off with a possible No. 1 seeding in the NCAA tournament. One way for the Aztecs to get that lofty goal is by getting a big win over Jimmer Fredette and the Cougars.

It’s not like Steve Fisher’s team needed more ammo for this game outside of the chance at a top seed, but revenge is a factor.Brigham Young (26-2 SU, 11-13 ATS) won the first go-round 71-58 on Jan. 26 between Top 10 teams as a 5 ½-point home favorite. Fredette went wild against the Aztecs that afternoon, scoring a game-high 43 points for the Cougs with four rebounds. Kawhi Leonard’s 22 points and 15 boards for SDSU gets lost in the shuffle from this game. Of course, Leonard was the only guy who really showed up on the score sheet for that game.

The Cougars were primed for a letdown after that win in Provo and they didn’t disappoint by losing 86-77 at New Mexico as two-point road faves. Once BYU was shocked back into reality, they’ve reeled off a six-game winning streak, going 3-3 ATS. Brigham Young comes into this contest after a 84-76 win over Colorado State as a 13 ½-point home favorite from last Wednesday. Fredette put in 34 points against the Rams, which is his best output since the first game against the Aztecs.

This is not only a big game for San Diego State in its quest for a good run at the big dance. The Aztecs will be looking to undo a lot of history as Brigham Young has gong 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings against Fisher’s crew.

The Aztecs have won all 14 games (8-5 ATS) they’ve had at Cox Arena this season. BYU has gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last seven road tests.

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Posted : February 25, 2011 10:05 pm
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Hokies hope to burst bubble
By Brian Edwards

For three straight seasons, Virginia Tech (18-8 straight up, 10-10-2 against the spread) has spent February and March on the proverbial bubble. And on each Selection Sunday, the Hokies haven’t heard their name called.

In order to avoid a similar fate this time around, Seth Greenberg’s team could use a win Saturday night at home against top-ranked Duke. Now that’s not to imply that a loss ruins Va. Tech’s chances of going to the NCAA Tournament, but a setback certainly ensure another Selection Sunday filled with anxiety.

Most betting shops opened Duke (26-2 SU, 16-11 ATS) as a 4½-point favorite with the total in the 141-142 range. The Blue Devils have regained the top spot in the rankings thanks to a seven-game winning streak since losing at St. John’s on Jan. 31.

Mike Krzyzewski’s team is coming off Wednesday’s 78-61 win over Temple as a 13 ½-point home favorite. Senior forward Kyle Singler snapped out of a personal shooting slump to score a game-high 28 points. Nolan Smith added 15 points, six rebounds and four assists for the winners, who are 6-1 ATS during their seven-game surge.

Va. Tech went to Winston-Salem on Tuesday night and captured a 76-62 win at Wake Forest as a 14-point road ‘chalk.’ Jeff Allen scored 17 points and pulled down eight rebounds, while Malcolm Delaney chipped in with 17 points as well.

Va. Tech has won 10 of its 12 home games in Blacksburg, cashing tickets at a 5-3 ATS clip. This is the first time the Hokies have been listed as home underdogs.

Duke has covered the number in five consecutive ACC road games. The Blue Devils were favorites in each of those contests.

The ‘under’ is 12-10 overall for Va. Tech, but the ‘over’ has hit at a 6-2 clip in its home outings. Meanwhile, Duke has seen the ‘under’ go 14-13 overall but it is on a 6-1 run in its last seven games (regardless of venue).

Duke has won four consecutive head-to-head meetings in this rivalry, going 3-0-1 ATS in the process. These programs last met at Cameron Indoor Stadium last season with the Blue Devils winning by a 67-55 count as 12-point home favorites.

Singler had 25 points and 10 rebounds against the Hokies, while Smith added 23 points. Delaney finished with 19 points but he was just 5-of-19 from the field.

Tip-off is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

In another prime-time tilt on ESPNU at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, Texas A&M will go on the road to face Baylor. Most books opened the Bears as 2½-point favorites.

Baylor (17-10 SU, 6-13 ATS) has won 14 of its 16 home games, but it is an abysmal 2-6 versus the number in Waco. The Bears are led by senior guard LaceDarius Dunn, who averages a team-high 20.4 points per game.

But Dunn had better get it going if his team is going to return to the NCAA Tournament just one year after advancing to the Elite Eight. Dunn had an atrocious performance in Wednesday’s 77-59 loss at Missouri. In 36 minutes of playing time, Dunn committed six turnovers, zero rebounds and zero assists. He scored 12 points and was 4-of-14 from the field.

Scott Drew’s team has just one victory over an RPI Top 50 team, but that could change with a win in this spot and in Baylor’s regular-season finale vs. Texas.

Texas A&M (22-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS) has an RPI of 17 thanks to a 4-2 record against Top 50 squads. The Aggies have bounced back from a three-game losing streak to win five in a row. They are coming off a 71-57 home win Wednesday over Oklahoma as 12½-point favorites.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Florida has won nine of its 10 games against RPI Top 50 teams following Thursday’s 71-62 win over Georgia as a six-point home favorite. Chandler Parsons came off the bench to spark his team to victory after missing the first game of his career in last Sunday’s win at LSU. Parsons scored 16 points and grabbed seven rebounds to lead UF back from a seven-point deficit at halftime. The Gators face a quick turnaround when they play at Kentucky on Saturday afternoon at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS. Most books opened UK as a 7½-point home favorite.

St. John’s is an underdog once again when it faces Villanova on ESPN at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. Most spots opened the Wildcats as six-point home favorites. The Johnnies are 5-1 both SU and ATS in their last six games as ‘dogs.

Gonzaga has won five consecutive games, going 4-1 ATS in the process. Mark Few’s team captured a huge win Thursday at St. Mary’s in overtime. Barring an unforeseen upset loss, it now appears clear that the Bulldogs are poised to remain perfect during Few’s tenure in terms of making the Big Dance.

vegasinsider.com.

 
Posted : February 25, 2011 10:06 pm
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NCAAB Betting Preview: Florida at Kentucky
By: Brad Young

March Madness is just around the corner, and there is a quality Southeastern Conference matchup on Saturday’s schedule when 13th-ranked Florida (21-5 straight up, 9-13 against the spread) visits 22nd-ranked Kentucky (19-8 SU, 10-12 ATS).

The Gators currently sit atop the SEC East Division standings by 2½ games over second-place Vanderbilt, while the Wildcats are tied for fourth.

There are currently six SEC teams projected to reach the NCAA Tournament, and a winning streak down the stretch of the regular season will definitely improve tournament seeding. Florida continues to battle SEC West leader Alabama for the top seed in the upcoming SEC Tournament. The Gators are projecting to be around a three seed in the Big Dance, but there is still plenty of basketball to be played before the NCAA Tournament tips off.

Florida is riding a five-game SU winning streak heading into Thursday’s home matchup with Georgia. The Gators continued their winning ways by upending Louisiana State Sunday as a 10½-point road ‘chalk,’ 68-61.

The combined 129 points eclipsed the 121-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 3-1 the past four performances.

Florida cruised after opening a 15-point halftime advantage, 40-25, and improved to 7-1 SU this season when playing on the road. The Gators controlled the boards, 36-25, but the Tigers delivered more assists, 13-7. Florida finished the contest by shooting 46 percent (25-of-55) from the field, and 31 percent (4-of-13) from 3-point land.

Guards Kenny Boynton (17 points) and Erving Walker (17, four rebounds) paced the offense, while center Vernon Macklin added 16 and seven. Forward Alex Tyus also aided in the triumph with six and nine.

Kentucky had its brief two-game SU winning streak halted with Wednesday’s overtime setback to Arkansas as a seven-point road favorite, 77-76. The combined 153 points toppled the 140½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the fourth consecutive contest.

The Wildcats are now just 2-6 ATS their past eight outings.

Kentucky finished the game with advantages in rebounding (43-35) and assists (10-7), while shooting 42 percent (30-of-71) from the field but just 16 percent (3-of-19) from behind the arc. Coach John Calipari’s team is now just 1-6 SU in conference road games, but an unblemished 6-0 at Rupp Arena.

Guard Brandon Knight scored a season-high 26 points along with eight rebounds in the loss, while forward Josh Harrellson added 12 and 14. Guard Darius Miller provided 13 and eight, while DeAndre Liggins had 13 and five.

Florida dispatched Kentucky Feb. 5 as a one-point home underdog, 70-68, while the combined 138 points eclipsed the 134-point closing total. Senior forward Chandler Parsons stepped up with 17 points and 12 rebounds for the Gators. The Wildcats’ Knight finished with 24, five and four assists, but he missed a forced 3-pointer at the buzzer that would have won the game. Coach Billy Donovan’s team is now 9-4 SU the previous 13 games against Kentucky.

Florida forward Chandler Parsons is ‘probable’ versus the Wildcats due to an injured hip. The Gators wrap up their regular season with a home game against Alabama before traveling to Vanderbilt.

Kentucky concludes its regular season with a home game against Vanderbilt and a road contest at Tennessee.

CBS Sports will provide coverage of Saturday’s matchup beginning at 1:00 p.m. PT from Kentucky’s Rupp Arena.

 
Posted : February 25, 2011 10:07 pm
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Bears and Shockers in NCAA betting showdown
By: Willie Bee

It's uncanny how schedules work out sometimes, schedules that are often in the making several seasons before games are played. Things certainly worked out as far as the Missouri Valley Conference goes this year.

The No. 1 seed in the MVC Tournament is on the line at Springfield's JQH Arena this Saturday when the Missouri State Bears host the Wichita State Shockers. Both teams enter the fracas with the same 14-3 marks in the conference, are ranked in the top 10 of the last mid-majors poll and sport top-50 RPI ratings.

This battle begins with the same understanding that Thursday's Gonzaga, St. Mary's matchup held going in: A win won't guarantee either team an invitation to the dance while a loss seemingly relegates that squad to needing the automatic bid.

Both teams suffered BracketBuster Week losses to teams that have NCAA tourney hopes themselves, and that has made this matchup a possible invite-buster.

Missouri State (22-7 straight up, 13-13-2 against the spread) has gotten this far by dominating at home, 14-1 to date. Just don't ask Bears backers to tell you they've dominated at JQH Arena, at least not lately. Mo State started 5-0 at the window in home games but has since failed to cover any of its last nine home tilts (0-7-2). Regardless of where the court has been, the Bears are just 2-9 ATS their last 11.

They did get the cover in addition to the win in their most recent contest, a 76-58 win at Southern Illinois while carrying five-point chalk. Missouri St. drained 8-of-13 from long range and got a huge game from big man Will Creekmore. The senior hit for a career-best 26 and added 11 boards, his fifth double-double on the campaign, a big reason why it marked the 10th 'over' in the Bears' last 12 trips to the floor.

That win came off a very disappointing loss at Valparaiso. The Bears were two-point underdogs, a role they'd been 3-1 ATS before the game, and came out flat in an 80-67 defeat. Kyle Weems and Adam Leonard each had trouble finding the net, combing for 9-of-30 from the field, 2-of-13 from three-point land.

Wichita State (23-6 SU, 13-11 ATS) also comes off a victory after a BracketBuster loss. The Shockers needed every bit of the clock to avoid a second-straight home upset, getting past Creighton on Wednesday, 67-65. Aaron Ellis' late jumper helped Wichita St. to the win but the Shockers never came close to the 11-point spread they were laying.

They were nine-point chalk at home on Feb. 18 when Virginia Commonwealth pulled the 68-67 shocker in the final second. Joey Rodriguez's two free throws came with under a tick left to give the Rams that victory.

Missouri State was a 5½-point underdog when it scored a 59-56 win over the Shockers in Wichita a little more than six weeks ago. That game was two games in won, the Bears dominating the first 30 minutes or so and Wichita State rallying late to erase a 13-point deficit and make it a game. The contest carried a 137½-point total.

ESPN2 will air Saturday's matchup beginning at 10 a.m. (PT).

Both teams will be idle until next Friday, the second round of the MVC tourney that is set to begin at St. Louis' Scottrade Center on Thursday, March 3. If all projections hold true, the Shockers and Bears would meet in the Championship Game on Sunday, March 6, with CBS broadcasting that game starting at 10 a.m. (PT).

 
Posted : February 25, 2011 10:10 pm
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San Diego State hosts BYU Cougars
By: Stephen Nover

Let’s be honest. It hasn’t been a great season so far for college basketball out west.

There are two exceptions – Brigham Young and San Diego State.

The seventh-ranked Cougars take on No. 6 San Diego State Saturday at 11 a.m. PT on CBS in what could be the Aztecs’ most important home game in school history. At stake is first place in the Mountain West Conference and national prestige.

Both teams are 12-1 in Mountain West.

BYU is 26-2. San Diego State is 27-1 with its lone defeat occurring to BYU, 71-58, as 5½-point road ‘dogs on Jan. 26. The combined 129 points went ‘under’ the 145½-point total.

Cougars’ star guard Jimmer Fredette had a game for the ages in that first meeting scoring 43 points on 14-of-24 shooting from the floor, including five-of-eight from beyond the arc.

Fredette leads the nation in scoring at 27.4 points per game. The 6-foot-2 senior is averaging two points more per game than Marshon Brooks of Providence, the second-leading scorer in the country.

He stands a good chance of becoming just the third player since 1970 to win the scoring title and national player of the year honors in the same season. The only two to accomplish that feat during the past 40 years are Bradley’s Hersey Hawkins in 1988 and Purdue’s Glenn Robinson in 1994.

Fredette has scored 33 and 28 points, respectively, during his last two visits to San Diego’s Viejas Arena.

BYU swept the Aztecs last season winning 71-69 as one-point road ‘dogs and 82-68 as 7½-point home favorites.

San Diego State, though, will be rested having not played since last Saturday. Steve Fisher’s Aztecs currently rank seventh in the country defensively surrendering 58.6 points per contest. The Aztecs are 15th in defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 39.3 percent shooting.

The obvious key for the Aztecs is slowing down Fredette. He scored 34 points in the Cougars’ 84-76 hard-fought victory this past Wednesday against Colorado State. It was the first time in six games Fredette broke the 30-point barrier.

BYU failed to cover as 13½-point home favorites. The combined 160 points went ‘over’ the 148½-point total.

Fredette, nursing a bruised left calf, had his second-worst shooting game of the season against the Rams making only nine-of-26 shots from the field and two-of-eight from 3-point range.

The Cougars committed 19 turnovers with Fredette turning the ball over seven times. BYU, though, had a 48-29 rebounding advantage against the Rams. Cougars center Brandon Davies pulled down a career-high 15 rebounds while also scoring 14 points.

Most likely BYU wasn’t sharp against Colorado State because it was looking ahead to San Diego State and Fredette wasn’t 100 percent.

Now the biggest game of the season for both teams is here. A victory by San Diego State, which has never won an NCAA Tournament game, could mean a top-five ranking. The Aztecs are the only team in the Top 25 with just one defeat. All the other teams have at least two losses.

San Diego State is led in scoring by Kawhi Leonard, who is averaging 15.2 points a game. The Aztecs have won seven in a row since falling to the Cougars.

The Aztecs beat Air Force, 70-58, as 10½-point road favorites in their last game. The combined 128 points went ‘over’ the 121-point total.

San Diego State is 7-5 ATS in its ‘lined’ home games. BYU is 6-4 ATS when facing ‘board’ teams on the road.

The Cougars rank sixth in the nation offensively averaging 83 points a game. They are 22nd in free throw accuracy making 75.4 percent of their tosses from the foul line.

 
Posted : February 25, 2011 10:11 pm
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College basketball Knowledge

Georgetown is missing G Wright (hand); they won 64-56 (+4.5) Feb 9 at Carrier Dome- Wright had 9 assists in that game. Orange won last three games, by 11-4-5 points- they won three of last four on road. Hoyas are 4-3 at home in Big East- they're 5-8 vs spread as favorite, 2-6 at home. Big East home favorites of less than 3 points are 10-5 vs spread.

Kansas State (+5.5) lost 75-59 at Missouri Jan 17, turning ball over 23 times, shooting 3-16 from arc; Wildcats won four of last five overall, and covered last five home games, winning by 34-8-16-16-15 points. Big 12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 17-6-1 vs spread. Mizzou won its last four games; they're 1-5 on road, losing by 13-2-13-6-17 points.

Iowa State (+4.5) lost 63-62 at Nebraska Jan 8, game Huskers led by 10 at half; State lost its last 10 games (2-8 vs spread), losing home games by 5-9-6-1-6 points. Big 12 home teams are 7-4 vs spread in games where spread is 3 or less points. Nebraska won three of its last four games, are 1-5 on Big 12 road, with only win by a point at Oklahoma.

Florida State (+1) won 55-53 at Miami Jan 19, in brickfest where both sides shot under 35%; Seminoles had 16 offensive boards. Miami is 4-2 in last six games, winning last two on road- they're 3-1-1 as road dog in ACC play. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-8-2 vs spread. FSU won three of last four games- they're 3-1-1 as ACC home fave.

Missouri State (+5.5) won 59-56 at Wichita Jan 9, making 8-16 from arc; Bears won last five MVC games, but are 0-6-2 vs spread as home fave in MVC. Wichita won eight of last nine MVC games; they won/covered all eight MVC road games- they're 0-2 as an underdog. MVC favorites are 13-9 vs spread in games where pointspread is 3 or less points.

San Diego State (+5.5) lost 71-58 at BYU Jan 26 Fredette had 43 points in game Aztecs led by point at half. State is 7-0 since that game; they are 3-3 as MWC home fave, winning at home by 6-13-39-7-32-6 pts. BYU won its last six games, all by 7+ points- they won at UNLV only other time they were dog. MWC faves are 12-8 if spread is 5 or less points.

Villanova is 2-3 in last five games, 1-8 vs spread in last nine, but they got Stokes back this week and had two more days than St John's to get ready for this game. Wildcats are 1-4 vs spread in last five home games. St John's won/covered last five games, and were underdog in four of the five. Big East single digit home favorites 34-28 vs spread.

UTEP has had rough week, losing to UCF/ECU with Tim Floyd getting tossed Wednesday; Miners are 3-3 as home favorite, winning at home by 10-23-4-10-12 points, with loss to UCF. C-USA home favorites of less than 5 points are 13-7-1 vs spread. Memphis won four of last five, but are just 3-3 on C-USA road- they're 3-1 as a C-USA underdog.

UCLA (+7.5) lost 85-74 at Arizona Jan 27; Wildcats shot 52%, hit 6-10 from arc. Bruins covered four of last five home games, with only loss at home to Washington. Pac-10 home teams are 8-5-1 vs spread if spread is 2 or less points. Arizona won four of last five road games. Both teams won eight of last nine games- UCLA ties for first in Pac-10 with a win.

Kentucky (-1) lost 70-68 at Florida Feb 5, despite making 7-12 from arc and Gators' starting Gs going 5-21 for night. Wildcats are 3-3 as favorite in SEC home games, winning by 24-38-6-12-6-31 points. Florida won its last six games, allowing just 62 ppg- they're 3-0 as SEC underdog. SEC home favorites of 9 or less points are 10-14 vs spread.

Colorado is 4-2 at home in Big 12, losing to Kansas by 4, Texas A&M by 3; Buffs are 4-3 as Big 12 dog, 2-0 at home. Texas is 4-1 as road fave in Big 12, winning away games by 31-11-15-20-16 points, with loss at Nebraska in last road game. Big 12 home underdogs of 7 or less points are 10-8 vs spread. Texas has Big Monday game with K-State on deck.

Virginia Tech won its last four home games, scoring 89.8 ppg; this is lot bigger game for them, trying to get off bubble. Hokies are 2-0 as an ACC underdog this year. Duke won/covered its last 10 ACC road games;they covered last five on ACC road, but did lose by 14 at St John's Jan 30 in non-league tilt. ACC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-11.

Furman (+6.5) won 73-68 in OT at Wofford, shooting 54% from floor; Wofford was just 8-15 from foul line. Paladins won last seven at home (5-2 vs spread), but lost last game by 16 at Chattanooga, two days prior to Wofford winning there by 39. Terriers won last four games, allowing 62 ppg. SoCon home teams are 8-6 in games where spread was 2 or less.

 
Posted : February 26, 2011 8:56 am
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