ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT
(at Atlantic City, N.J.)
Rhode Island (22-8, 11-15-1 ATS) vs. (17) Temple (27-5, 21-11 ATS)
Rhode Island has cruised into the A-10 semifinals with a pair of first-round blowout wins. On Tuesday, the Rams ripped St. Joe’s 87-76, but failed to cover as a 14-point favorite in a game played in their home gym. They returned to the court Friday and easily dispatched Saint Louis 63-47, cashing as a 3½-point chalk. Rhode Island started the season 19-3, but closed on a 2-5 SU and 2-6 ATS slump prior to posting consecutive victories in the conference tourney.
The Owls, who got a first-round bye after earning a share of the regular-season conference title and the No. 1 seed, blasted St. Bonaventure 69-51 as a 10½-point chalk on Friday to run their SU winning streak to eight in a row and their ATS winning streak to five in a row. Going back further, Temple has won 16 of its last 18, which encompasses a 15-2 Atlantic 10 record. It has also cashed in nine of its last 11.
Temple swept the season series from the Rams and has won the last three meetings in a row (SU and ATS). On Jan. 10, the Owls traveled to Rhode Island and stole a 68-64 overtime victory as a two-point underdog, then a month later in Philadelphia, they scored an easy 78-56 rout as a four-point home chalk. Temple is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings; the favorite has cashed in five of the last six; and the SU winner has covered the number in each of the last 13 series clashes.
Despite getting the money against Saint Louis on Friday, Rhode Island remains on ATS slides of 2-7 overall, 16-33-3 in conference play, 1-6-1 on Saturday and 3-7 against winning teams. Conversely, Temple’s current 5-0 ATS run is aided by additional positive pointspread surges of 39-14-2 in conference, 38-17-1 versus winning teams and 7-1 at neutral sites.
Both teams are 3-0-1 “over” in their last four Saturday affairs. From there, though, the Rams carry “under” trends of 16-7 in league play, 5-0 at neutral sites and 3-0-1 versus winning teams, while Temple is riding “under” streaks of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 4-0 at neutral sites and 3-0-1 against winning teams. Finally, these teams had played three straight “unders” before last month’s meeting at Temple landed right on the 134-point posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEMPLE and UNDER
Richmond (25-7, 17-10-1 ATS) vs. (24) Xavier (24-7, 20-10 ATS)
Richmond moved on to the semifinals, but not before surviving a scare against UMass on Friday, holding on for a 77-72 victory but coming up short as a 10-point favorite. The Spiders built a 17-point lead against UMass that twice was whittled down to four points, but they hit key free throws down the stretch to seal their third win in a row and their 11th in their last 12 games. Richmond’s last five games have been decided by 4, 2, 4, 5 and 5 points, with two going into overtime.
The Musketeers had to stage a furious rally to get past Dayton last night, overcoming a 15-point deficit with 10 minutes left to not only steal a 78-73 victory, but cover as a 3½-point favorite. Xavier has won eight in a row (6-2 ATS) and 16 of 18 overall. The Musketeers have also scored five straight wins away from home, including a 12-point non-conference victory at Florida last month.
Richmond’s only loss since Jan. 20 came at Xavier two Sundays ago, and it was a heartbreaking 78-76 overtime setback, though the Spiders covered as a 7½-point underdog. Xavier has won seven of the last eight meetings, going 5-3 ATS.
Despite misfiring as a 10-point chalk against UMass on Friday, the Spiders are still 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games (all in conference). Also, they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at neutral sites this year. Xavier also has been hot at the betting window, currently on ATS runs of 35-16-2 overall, 35-16-1 at neutral courts, 9-3 in conference and 8-3 after a SU win.
Richmond is on a 5-1 “over” uptick, with its last three away from home hurdling the posted price. However, prior to yesterday, the Spiders had stayed under the total in their first three neutral-site games this season. The Musketeers cleared the total against Dayton on Friday, but they’ve still stayed “under” in 10 of their last 12 at neutral venues.
Finally, these teams topped the total on Feb. 28 at Xavier, making the “over” 5-2 in the last seven clashes overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Greensboro, N.C.)
Georgia Tech (21-11, 14-10-2 ATS vs. N.C. State (19-14, 16-13-1 ATS)
The Yellow Jackets, seeded seventh in this event, may have just played themselves into the Big Dance by virtue of their 69-64 quarterfinal upset of second-seeded Maryland as a four-point pup Friday. Georgia Tech shot a whopping 55.8 percent from the floor, including 66.7 percent from three-point range (8-for-12), while holding Maryland to 37 percent shooting, including a 4-for-21 effort from long distance (19 percent).
The Jackets finished the regular season on a 1-3 SU and ATS skid, but have since rebounded with a pair of SU and ATS wins in this tournament.
North Carolina State, a lowly 11th seed, is on a 5-1 SU and ATS surge after its second upset in as many nights in this tourney, dropping Florida State 58-52 as a 6½-point underdog Friday after stunning Clemson on Thursday. Last night, the Wolfpack forced the Seminoles into a dismal 3-for-18 performance from 3-point range (16.7 percent), while hitting 7 of 15 from long distance (46.7 percent) and 19 of 43 overall (44.2 percent).
Five weeks ago, Georgia Tech notched a 73-71 victory over N.C. State, but the ‘Pack easily covered as a healthy 9½-point road underdog. In fact, N.C. State has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 SU), four of the last five and six of the last nine. Also, the underdog is on a 9-1 ATS tear.
The Yellow Jackets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven at neutral sites (4-0 last four) and are further ATS runs of 4-1-1 following a spread-cover and 13-6-1 after a SU win, though they remain in a 3-6-2 overall ATS rut (all in the ACC).
Meanwhile, along with their current 5-1 SU and ATS run (all in ACC play), the Wolfpack are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on neutral courts this year, allowing an average of just 54.2 ppg while scoring 61.8. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with a win percentage above .600.
Georgia Tech entered the ACC tourney on a 4-0 “over” surge, but the under has hit the past two days and is 3-1 in the Jackets’ last four neutral-site starts. N.C. State is on “under” streaks of 7-1 overall (all in the ACC, 2-0 last two) and 5-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600. However, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last four meetings, and the over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.C. STATE
Miami, Fla. (20-12, 13-9-2 ATS) vs. (4) Duke (27-5, 18-11-2 ATS)
Miami, which ended the regular season on a 1-5 SU dive (3-2-1 ATS), has bagged a pair of mild upsets in the ACC tourney, pounding Wake Forest 83-62 Thursday as a 3½-point pup, then topping Virginia Tech 70-65 Friday, again as a 3½-point ‘dog. The ninth-seeded Hurricanes are a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS on neutral courts this year, averaging 77.7 ppg on stout 49 percent shooting, while allowing just 63.3 ppg on 37.2 percent shooting.
Second-seeded Duke has won 10 of its last 11 games (5-4-2 ATS), opening tourney play Friday with a 57-46 victory over Virginia, but never coming close to covering as a 17-point chalk. It was a rare low-scoring effort for the Blue Devils, who average 78.4 ppg (23rd nationally) while allowing just 61.3, and Duke sports the nation’s No. 1 3-point defense, allowing just 27 percent shooting from long distance.
Duke is on an 8-1 SU roll in this rivalry, but has gone just 4-3-2 ATS in that span, pushing as a seven-point road chalk in an 81-74 win on Feb. 17, the only meeting this year. Miami, an underdog in all nine of those contests, is 2-0-2 ATS in the last four clashes.
The Hurricanes are on a handful of positive ATS streaks, including 6-2-2 overall (all in the ACC), 5-0-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 4-0 at neutral sites, 7-1 as a neutral-site pup and 14-6-3 on Saturday. The Blue Devils are on ATS upswings of 8-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 at neutral sites and 7-3-2 in the ACC, but they are 1-3-2 ATS in their last five coming off a SU win.
Miami sports a bundle of “over” rolls, including 6-2 overall (all in ACC play), 7-0 against winning teams, 4-0 after a spread-cover, 4-1 after a SU win, 4-0 on neutral floors and 6-1 as a neutral-site pup. The over is also on a 7-0 run for Duke against winning teams, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high seven straight times. However, the Blue Devils are on “under” surges of 5-1 overall, 6-1 on Saturday, 5-1 at neutral sites and 29-11 in the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
(at Kansas City, Mo.)
(1) Kansas (31-2, 13-16-1 ATS) vs. (9) Kansas State (26-6, 18-8-1 ATS)
The Jayhawks, looking to lock up a No. 1 seed in the upcoming Big Dance, have rallied to win four straight (3-1 ATS) since getting blown out at Oklahoma State (85-77) as six-point favorite two weeks ago today. Kansas has cruised in the first two games of the Big 12 tournament at the Spring Center, dominating Texas Tech 80-68 but coming up short as a 17½-point favorite on Thursday, then rallying from a three-point halftime deficit in Friday’s quarterfinal and wiping out Texas A&M 79-66, getting the cash as a nine-point chalk.
Kansas State has rebounded since losing its last two regular-season contests, destroying Oklahoma State on Thursday 83-64 as a 4½-point favorite in the opening round of the tourney and then beating Baylor 82-75 in Friday’s quarterfinals, cashing as a two-point favorite. The Wildcats got 26 points from Jacob Pullen and 24 from Denis Clemente to beat a Baylor team that shot 54 percent from the floor.
The Jayhawks are 4-1 SU and ATS against the Wildcats in the last five in this rivalry, including two winners this season. Kansas went to Manhattan, Kan. and scored an 81-79 overtime win back on Jan. 30, coming up just short as a 3½-point favorite, then the Jayhawks crushed K-State on March 3, 82-65 and easily covering as an 8½-point home chalk. Kansas is 18-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings with the Wildcats, all as a favorite.
Kansas is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600, but the pointspread streaks tumble downward from there, including 4-9 overall (all in the Big 12), 2-6 after a straight-up win, 3-5 away from home, 1-5 on Saturday and 3-9 after a SU victory. Kansas State is on a host of positive ATS runs, including 17-6-1 overall, 12-5-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 against winning teams at neutral sites, 15-5-1 versus winning teams and 40-19-2 on Saturday.
The Jayhawks are on “under” runs of 6-4 overall (3-1 in the last four), 11-4 at neutral sites, 30-13 after a SU victory and 19-7 following a spread-cover. The Wildcats have topped the total five straight neutral-site games, and the over is also 5-1 in their last six against winning teams and 9-4-1 in their last 14 on Saturday. Finally, when this month’s meeting at Kansas barely stayed low, it stopped a five-game “over” streak in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Illinois (19-13, 13-18 ATS) vs. (5) Ohio State (25-7, 16-16 ATS)
Illinois took a huge step toward enhancing its Big Dance chances when it upset 13th-ranked Wisconsin 58-54 as an eight-point underdog at Conseco Fieldhouse. The Illini took a 29-20 halftime lead and led by as many 13 with less than five minutes to play but barely held on, snapping a three-game SU and ATS losing skid. Illinois is still just 2-5 (3-4 ATS) in its last seven games as it continues to struggle offensively, scoring 60 points or less in five straight games while averaging just 56.6 ppg on 38.1 percent shooting, including 30.1 percent from three-point range.
With his team trailing 68-66 with 2.2 seconds to go, Player-of-the-Year candidate Evan Turner took an inbounds pass, dribbled just past half-court and swished a running 35-foot shot at the buzzer, lifting the Buckeyes to a stunning 69-68 quarterfinal victory over archrival Michigan. Ohio State, coming off a nine-day layoff, fell behind early but took a 10-point halftime lead before stumbling down the stretch and failing to cover as a nine-point chalk. Turner led four teammates in double-digit scoring with 18 points as the Buckeyes won their fifth in a row.
Going back to mid-January, Ohio State has won 14 of 16 games overall, going 14-1 in Big Ten play (9-6 ATS). That includes a pair of wins and spread-covers over the Illini (72-53 as a two-point road chalk on Feb. 14 and 73-57 as a 9½-point home favorite in the regular-season finale on March 2). The Buckeyes are 7-2 in the last nine meetings (6-3 ATS), and the SU winner has covered the spread in nine of the last 10 clashes.
The Illini ended an 0-6 ATS neutral-site slump with yesterday’s upset of Wisconsin, but they’re still in pointspread funks of 1-3 overall, 3-8 on Saturday and 4-10 after a spread-cover. Ohio State has failed to cover in five of its last six on Saturday, but it is still 7-3 ATS in its last 10 at neutral venues, 4-1 ATS in its last four after a non-cover and 4-1 ATS in its last five against winning teams.
Illinois has topped the total in five of six at neutral sites and four of five on Saturday, but it is also on “under” runs of 4-1 overall (all in the Big Ten), 4-1 after a SU win, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 versus winning teams. Also, even though the Buckeyes soared over the total in Friday’s win over Michigan, they’re still on “under” stretches of 6-2 after a victory, 12-4 after a non-cover, 6-2 versus winning teams and 38-16-1 on Saturday. Finally, the under has hit in four of the last five in this rivalry, with both of this year’s battles staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
Minnesota (20-12, 16-15 ATS) vs. (6) Purdue (27-4, 12-17-2 ATS)
Minnesota continued its late-season surge on Friday when the Golden Gophers upset 11th-ranked Michigan State 72-67 in overtime, cashing as a four-point pup, in the Big Ten quarterfinals at Conseco Fieldhouse. Minnesota has now won three in a row (SU and ATS) and six of eight overall, cashing in seven of those eight contests. Devoe Joseph led the way for the Gophers Friday with 17 points and six rebounds, though Minnesota shot just 39 percent from the floor.
Purdue used a big second half to rally past Northwestern on Friday, winning 69-61 and pushing as an eight-point chalk. The Boilermakers got 28 points from E’Twaun Moore and 22 points from JaJuan Johnson and held the Wildcats to 37.2 percent shooting to advance to this semifinal matchup. Purdue has won three straight (0-2-1 ATS) and 13 of 14 (5-8-1 ATS), but it hasn’t cashed a ticket since a Feb. 17 victory at Ohio State, going 0-5-1 ATS since.
The Boilermakers are on a 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) streak in this rivalry, including a two-game sweep this season, prevailing 79-60 on Jan. 5 as 8½-point home favorites and 59-58 at Minnesota on Feb. 24, coming up short as a three-point road chalk. In this series, the straight-up winner is on a 9-1-1 ATS run coming into today’s contest.
The Golden Gophers are on ATS runs of 7-1 overall (all in the Big Ten), 4-0 against winning teams, 6-2 on Saturday, 4-1 following a victory and 5-1 after a spread-cover. The Boilermakers are in ATS ruts of 3-11-1 as a favorite, 1-6-1 as a favorite away from home, 1-6 on Saturday, 1-3-2 at neutral venues and 0-3-1 versus winning teams.
For Minnesota, the “under” is on streaks of 13-5 against teams with a winning record (7-1 last eight against winning teams) and 42-19 on Saturday, but it has topped the total in its last four overall. Purdue is on “over” streaks of 6-3 away from home, 5-2 as a road favorite, but the Boilers also carry “under” trends of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 7-1 against winning teams and 5-2 after a SU win.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 11 of the last 12 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
(22) Georgetown (23-9, 16-12 ATS) vs. (7) West Virginia (26-6, 13-18 ATS)
Georgetown advanced to the Big East tournament championship game at Madison Square Garden after scoring 43 second-half points Friday en route to an 80-57 rout of Marquette, cashing as a 3½-point favorite. The Hoyas shot 53.6 percent from the floor, led by Greg Monroe’s 23 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists. After losing four of six to close the regular season (SU and ATS), Georgetown has rattled off four straight wins and covers.
West Virginia made it five straight wins overall (2-3 ATS) Friday, holding off red-hot Notre Dame 53-51 but coming up short as a 5½-point chalk. The Mountaineers shot 50 percent from the field and got 24 points and seven boards from Da’Sean Butler while holding the Irish to 34.1 percent shooting. Bob Huggins’ squad has won seven of its last eight games, but is just 2-4 ATS in the last six (failing to cover in both games in this tournament).
In this series, the Mountaineers have won two straight, including an 81-68 home win on March 1, cashing as seven-point favorites. West Virginia is 7-4 ATS in the last 11 meetings with the Hoyas.
Georgetown has cashed in five straight neutral-site games, but despite the Hoyas first 4-0 ATS run in more than two seasons, they are still just 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 games after a spread-cover. The Mountaineers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site contests (1-4 last five).
The Hoyas are on “under” runs of 6-2 after a straight-up win and 48-23 after a spread-cover. West Virginia has topped the total in four of five after a non-cover, but it is on “under” runs of 12-1 against winning teams, 5-1 after a straight-up victory and 4-1 at neutral venues.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(at Las Vegas)
San Diego State (24-8, 16-13 ATS) at UNLV (25-7, 19-11 ATS)
San Diego State advanced to the Mountain West tournament championship game at the Thomas & Mack Center – and likely locked up a Big Dance berth regardless of tonight’s outcome – with a thrilling 72-69 upset victory over No. 8 and top-seeded New Mexico as a 2½-point underdog. The Aztecs, who barely survived a quarterfinal matchup against Colorado State on Thursday (71-70 victory), shot 52 percent from the field, going a blistering 10-for-16 from three-point range. Forward Billy White poured in a game-high 28 points and true freshman Kawhi Leonard added 15 points and 12 rebounds.
After San Diego State dispatched of the top-seeded Lobos, the Rebels took to their home court and gutted out a 70-66 victory over No. 2 seed BYU, cashing as a one-point favorite. Like the Aztecs, UNLV had a sensational shooting night, hitting at 55.6 percent (42.1 percent from three-point range), and they limited high-scoring BYU to 39 percent overall (9-for-25 from beyond the arc). The Rebels, pounded Utah 73-61 but came up just short as a 12½-point chalk in Thursday’s quarterfinal contest, are now 15-3 all-time in Mountain West tournament games played at the Thomas & Mack.
The Aztecs have won four in a row and 10 of 13 (all in the Mountain West), but it has followed up a 6-0 ATS spurt by failing to cover in four of its last six. Meanwhile, UNLV also has won 10 of 13 (all in conference), including the last six in a row (4-2 ATS).
Home court held serve in this rivalry in the regular season, with UNLV prevailing 76-66 as a seven-point favorite on Jan. 13 and the Aztecs getting revenge with their own 10-point win (68-58 as a 3½-point chalk) exactly a month later. San Diego State is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five series meetings, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last eight clashes.
San Diego State opened the Mountain West season with consecutive road losses but has since gone 6-2 SU and ATS on the highway in league play (tournament included). Meanwhile, UNLV is just 5-5 ATS in conference home games.
San Diego State has gone over the total in its first two games of this tournament, and the over is 7-3 in its 10 Mountain West road/neutral-site games and 6-1-1 in its last eight against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Rebels have stayed under the total in eight of 12 overall (4-3 “under” at home). Lastly, the over is 5-1 the last two days in the Mountain West tournament.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
PAC-10 TOURNAMENT
(at Los Angeles)
Washington (23-9, 13-18 ATS) vs. California (23-9, 19-12 ATS)
The Huskies bring a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS) into the Pac-10 championship game inside the Staples Center after crushing Stanford 79-64 on Friday night, cashing as an 8½-point favorite. Washington held the Cardinal to just 30.6 percent shooting and got 19 points and seven boards from Quincy Pondexter and outrebounded Stanford 43-33. In their tournament opener Thursday, the Huskies topped Oregon State 59-52, but came up just short as a nine-point chalk – the team’s only non-cover during its six-game winning streak.
Cal also made it six straight wins (6-0 ATS) on Friday with a come-from-behind 85-72 win over UCLA in the semifinals, easily cashing as a 7½-point chalk. After trailing 39-35, at halftime, the Golden Bears outscored the Bruins 50-33 in the final 20 minutes to get the win. Cal shot a whopping 60 percent from the field and got 24 points and six assists from Jerome Randle and 20 points from Theo Robertson. With the win and cover, Cal improved to 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games (all in conference)
The home team scored blowout wins this season, with the Huskies pounding Cal 84-69 as a 2½-point favorite back on Jan. 16 and then the Bears cruising 93-81 as a 4½-point chalk Feb. 11. Cal is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five series clashes.
Washington has failed to cash in four of six at neutral sites, but it is on ATS runs of 6-0 on Saturday and 4-1 after a SU win. Cal is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 as a favorite, and the Bears are on additional pointspread surges of 6-0 on Saturday and 4-0 against winning teams. However, they’re still just 2-6 ATS in their last eight at neutral sites.
The Huskies are on “over” runs of 31-14 in Pac-10 action and 23-11 after a straight-up win, while the Bears have topped the total in six of nine overall, 16 of 21 at neutral sites and 37 of 55 in Pac-10 play, but the under is 6-1-1 in Cal’s last eight on Saturday. In this series, the over has cashed in six of the last seven battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Nashville)
Mississippi State (22-10, 14-12-1 ATS) vs. (20) Vanderbilt (24-7, 16-13 ATS)
Mississippi State, the top seed in the SEC West, ended a two-game SU and ATS skid by opening the conference tourney with a 75-69 victory over Florida on Friday as a 1½-point favorite. The Bulldogs are 4-1 SU and ATS on neutral courts this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 13 ppg (70.8-57.2), shooting 45.4 ppg while allowing just 37.9 percent shooting.
Vanderbilt, the No. 2 seed in the SEC East, opened tourney play with a 78-66 victory over Georgia on Friday as an eight-point chalk for its fourth win in the last five games (3-2 ATS). The Commodores have narrowly outscored opponents in five neutral-site starts this year, averaging 72.2 ppg on 43.2 percent shooting, while allowing 70.2 ppg on an even 43 percent shooting, going 3-2 SU and ATS in those contests.
Mississippi State has covered in the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 SU), after a 3-0 ATS run by Vandy. The Rebels are a solid 10-3 ATS in the last 13 clashes.
The Bulldogs are on ATS runs of 4-0 on neutral floors and 12-5-1 coming off a spread-cover, but they are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Saturday starts. The Commodores are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Saturday outings and 1-5 ATS in their last six following a spread-cover, though they carry positive ATS streaks of 10-4 against winning teams, 8-3 against squads with a win percentage above .600 and 12-5 at neutral sites.
The under for Mississippi State is on surges of 7-1-1 at neutral sites and 6-1 on Saturday, but the over has hit in the Bulldogs’ last four against winning teams and is 5-1 in their last six games following a SU win. Likewise, Vanderbilt is on several “over” tears, including 12-3 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1-1 at neutral sites, 7-2 on Saturday, 22-8 in the SEC and 8-3 after a SU win. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last four meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(15) Tennessee (25-7, 13-15-1 ATS) vs. (2) Kentucky (30-2, 16-14 ATS)
Third-seeded Tennessee has peeled off five consecutive wins (3-2 ATS), all in SEC action, including tourney wins of 59-49 over LSU on Thursday as an 11½-point chalk and 76-65 over Mississippi last night laying 2½ points. The Volunteers were outscored on the road this year by an average of about four ppg (67.6-63.9), but on neutral courts, the Vols are averaging 74 ppg and giving up 60 ppg, going 5-1 SU (3-2-1 ATS).
Kentucky tumbled 74-65 at Tennessee on Feb. 27 as a 2½-point chalk, but has since won three in a row (1-2 ATS), opening the SEC tourney with a 73-67 victory over Alabama, but falling short as a 9½-point favorite. The top-seeded Wildcats have gone 4-0 SU at neutral sites this season (2-2 ATS), averaging 70.8 ppg on 45.8 percent shooting, while holding foes to just 60.5 ppg with a defense that’s allowed just 35.2 percent shooting.
This is the third meeting between these rivals in the past month. Kentucky won 73-62 giving 9½ points at home on Feb. 13 prior to Tennessee’s aforementioned home win and cover. The Vols’ win halted a 5-0 ATS surge by Kentucky in this rivalry (4-1 SU). In addition, the SU winner is 10-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Vols are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 starts as a neutral-court pup and 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 outings following a spread-cover, but they are on ATS rolls of 4-1 on Saturday, 4-1 against winning teams and 22-8-1 catching less than seven points. The Wildcats are in a 2-5-1 ATS rut as a neutral-site chalk, but they’ve gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a non-cover and 5-1 ATS in their last six Saturday affairs.
Tennessee is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 19-7-1 overall, 4-0-1 at neutral sites, 5-0 on Saturday, 13-3 as a pup, 20-7-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 20-8-1 in conference play. Kentucky is on “under” surges of 6-1 on neutral floors, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 coming off a SU win. Additionally, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Big 12 and Big East Betting Previews
Doug Upstone
In many ways, postseason tournaments are a silly exercise, where three or four days of basketball can wipe away or enhance four months of toiling for players and coaches. However, in the Big 12 and Big East, at least this season, all four nationally ranked teams are already going to the Big Dance and this one is for honor and recognition, played out in prime time on ESPN. It promises to be quite a Saturday night.
Sunflower state battle
The sunflower might be a beautiful delicate flower, which will be in direct contrast to the bragging rights one final time (maybe), as Kansas and Kansas State meet for the Big 12 title in Kansas City.
The Jayhawks are the top team in the land and have owned their state partner, with 30-2 and 22-10 ATS record dating back to 1997. Kansas won both games this season, but Kansas State is not worrying about the past.
Thats our goal (winning the Big 12 championship) right now, said Kansas State guard Jacob Pullen, whs averaging a team-leading 19.1 points. We have the opportunity in front of us. The Wildcats just missed knocking off Kansas at Manhattan, falling 81-79 in overtime as four point underdogs.
Kansas State has handled two good clubs in downing Oklahoma State and Baylor in this tournament and is 15-3 and 10-4 ATS after covering the spread this season. K-State coach Frank Martin is cautiously optimistic about this contest.
Ive got to think that its going to be the best environment of any conference championship game in the country, Martin said. I just hope we play well, because if not, it might be a long day against those guys. His squad is 15-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Kansas has to be one CBS analyst Clark Kelloggs favorite teams since he can use one of his favorite pet words spurtability. The Jayhawks can look disinterested, matching baskets and quicker than Manny Pacquiao jab, the Jayhawks will run off eight straight points to take control, which is basically how theyve handled both Texas Tech and Texas A&M. Kansas earned just their fourth cover in 13 tries in win over Aggies.
The Jayhawks are 5.5-point favorites according to Sportbet.com with total of 147.5 and the favorite is 18-6 ATS, with the last six bitter battles producing 5-1 OVER mark. ESPN has the Big 12 title game between these Top 10 teams at 6:00 Eastern.
Cream to the top in Big Apple
The Big East Tournament has turned into lunacy the last several years with a myriad of upsets and unusual happenings, but in the end, it seems the best teams always emerge in the finals. Georgetown has gotten what it needs from its best three players to advance to this point at Madison Square Garden. Greg Monroe (serious player of the tourney candidate), Chris Wright and Austin Freeman have led the charge for the eighth-seeded Hoyas, who are 5-0 SU and ATS at neutral sites this season.
West Virginia is chasing a number of factors Saturday night. The Mountaineers were the only top four seed to advance in this tournament and rumors are circulating a Big East title might push them up to No.1 seed depending on how everything shakes out. West Virginia has never won this tournament and the players comprehend the significance.
It would mean the world to me, just because it would be the first one, and I was part of the team, star forward DaSean Butler said. It would be something special. The Mountaineers have yet to lose in tourney action this season with 5-0 record, but are 2-3 ATS.
West Virginia is hopeful peculiar spread run continues, at least for the short term. Coach Bob Huggins squad is 6-8 ATS in last 14 games and has covered two and failed to cover two in blocks since Jan. 26. The Teers have not covered their last two games and hopes things change to their benefit this time around.
West Virginia has won and covered previous two meetings, but lost to G-Town 72-55 in the semi-finals in this event in 2008. The Mountaineers played for the title in 2005, before falling to Syracuse. Georgetown is making third appearance in the final game in four years and 13th overall in its 30-year history.
At the end of the day, now its the championship game, Monroe said. I know as a team we came here to win this tournament, and I mean, (Saturday) the lights are going to be on. We have to be prepared to play.
The Hoyas are two-point underdogs with total of 132.5, with the tipoff set for just after 9:00 Eastern.
NCAAB News and Notes
Information on Saturday's college basketball games.
Conference USA tournament
UTEP won last 16 games; Miners (+3) lost 75-65 at Houston Jan 12, as Cougars made 11-20 from arc, but won rematch 65-58 (-7.5) Feb 3, in game Houston led by 4 at half. Houston is just 12-46 from arc last two games after going 13-26 in first round- they pass ball less than any team I've seen. UTEP won its two tournament games by 22-14 points.
SEC tournament
Kentucky (-10) beat Tennessee 73-62 Feb 13, then got upset 74-65 (-3) in Knoxville two weeks later; Wildcats won 11 of last 12 games, are 4-3 against the spread in its last seven games as the favorite. Tennessee won five in row and seven of last eight games; they're 2-3 as an underdog in SEC games. Vols are playing third day in row, Kentucky second.
Mississippi State jumped out to 10-0 lead last night after trailing 17-0 in regular season finale; they're wildly erratic team that depends on making 3's- they were 10-20 from arc last night. Bulldogs (+5.5) lost 75-72 at Vanderbilt Feb 3 (9-34 from arc). Vanderbilt is 3-7 vs spread in last ten games as a favorite; they've won seven of their last nine games.
Atlantic 10 tournament
Temple beat Rhode Island twice this year, 68-64 in OT on road Jan 10 (+3), then 78-56 in Philly (-4, led by 20 at the half) Feb 13. Owls won their last eight games, covered last five; they are 11-3 vs spread an A-14 favorite this season. Rhode Island is 4-5 in last nine games, 1-2 as A-14 underdog. URI was 9-37 from the arc in the two games vs Temple.
Xavier (-7.5) beat Richmond 78-76 in double OT Feb 28; Musketeers had 20 turnovers (-8), Spiders made 12-29 from arc. Xavier won its last seven games, covering nine of last 11 games as a favorite. Spiders' last five games were all decided by five or less points; they're 11-1 in last 12 games and covered their last five games as an underdog.
ACC tournament
Duke (-7) was down 37-25 at half, rallied to win 81-74 at Miami Feb 17 in south Florida. Blue Devils won 10 of last 11 games since Georgetown upset; they are 7-4-1 vs spread in its last twelve games as an ACC fave. Miami is 3-5 in last eight games, but 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven games as an underdog- they held last two opponents to 35/38% from the floor.
Georgia Tech is 4-5 in last nine games- they're 1-4 vs spread in last five games as favorite; they beat NC State 73-71 (-8.5) Feb 6, shooting 52% in game where both teams had 20+ turnovers. Wolfpack won five of last six games; covering four of their last five games as an underdog. Jackets survived 25 turnovers Friday; they blocked 14 shots the last two days.
Big 10 tournament
Ohio State hammered Illinois twice this year, 72-53 (-1.5) on road Feb 14, then 73-57 (-9.5) at home 10 days ago. Buckeyes won their last five games, pulling out dramatic win yesterday on Turner's buzzer-beater; they're 8-6 as a Big 11 favorite this year. Illinois lost five of their last seven games; they're 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as an underdog.
Purdue won 13 of last 14 games, but they're 0-6 vs spread in last six, scoring 62.8 ppg in four games since Hummel tore his ACL and went out for year. Minnesota is 6-2 in last eight games, 3-3 as a Big 11 underdog; Gophers (+7.5) lost 79-60 at Purdue Jan 5, shooting 31% from the floor, then lost 59-58 at home (+2) to the Boilermakers Feb 24. .
Big 12 tournament
Kansas beat Kansas State twice this season, 81-79 (-4) in OT at K-State Jan 30, then 82-65 (-8) on Senior Day in Lawrence March 3. Jayhawks won last four games by 17-21-12-13 points, after losing at Oklahoma State- they're 4-9 in last 13 games as favorite. Kansas State scored 83-82 points in winning last two days; they're 2-2 as a Big 12 underdog.
Pac-10 tournament
Cal won, covered nine of last ten games; they're 11-4 against the spread in its last 15 games as a favorite- they shot 54-60% from floor last two days, winning by 16-13 points. . Washington won last six road games, after after starting season 0-7 out of Seattle- they split with Cal, winning 84-69 (-2.5) at home Jan 16, losing 93-81 (+4.5) in Berkeley Feb 11.
MAC tournament
Akron won nine of its last ten games; they're 4-3 vs spread in last seven games as the favorite; Zips beat Ohio twice this year, 67-62 (even), then 91-88 (-7.5) at home in double OT Feb 14. Ohio is 10-1 vs spread in last eleven games, covering last three tries as a dog; they held Kent/Miami to 36/34% from floor last two days. Akron is 0-3 in last three as a favorite.
Mountain West tournament
San Diego State probably got off bubble by beating New Mexico Friday; they lost 76-66 (+7) at UNLV Jan 13, turning ball over 20 times, then beat Rebels 68-58 (-4) at home. Aztecs won 10 of last 12 games- they're 4-2 as a MWC dog. UNLV won its last six games (4-2 vs spread); they are 8-2 at home, winning by 10-10-14-31-16-18-12-6-4 points.
Big West tournament
Santa Barbara (+5.5) lost 67-47 at Long Beach Jan 14, then beat 49ers 64-62 at home (-3.5) Feb 13; Gauchos won seven of last eight games, are 1-4 in last five games as favorite. Long Beach State won four of last five games- they're 3-1 as an underdog in conference games this year. 49ers played hardest non-league schedule in country, now its paying off.
Big East tournament
Georgetown is 11-3 in this event last 4+ years; Hoyas (+7.5) lost 81-68 at West Virginia March 1, but Freeman missed that game with diabetes issues. Mountaineers won seven of last eight games, with their last three games decided by total of seven points- they're 10-5 in this event last five years. Underdogs are 9-4 vs spread in Big East tourney this week.
WAC tournament
Utah State won its last 17 games (14-3 against the spread); they lost at New Mexico State 55-52 (-6.5) in WAC opener Jan 2, then beat Aggies 81-63 (-13.5) on Senior Day last week. New Mexico State is 2-4 in last six games as underdog- they upset host Nevada last night, while Utah St basically had bye in beating injury-ravaged La Tech by 30 points.
Tips and Trends
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Ohio St Buckeyes
Fighting Illini: Illinois played one of their best games of their season at the most opportune time. Illinois beat Wisconsin SU yesterday to advance in the Big 10 conference championship. The Illini were 7.5 underdogs, yet won the game 58-54 SU. The Illini are 7-5 ATS as the listed underdog, with 5 of those wins coming SU. The Illini shocked alot of people with this win yesterday, as they had lost 5 of their past 6 games SU entering the tournament. Illinois is now 19-13 SU and 13-18 ATS on the season. The Illini are 7-9 SU and 8-8 ATS away from home this season. After allowing 145 PTS in their past 2 games combined, Illinois finally stepped up to the challenge and played some defense. The Illini will need to defend the same way today, as they allowed Ohio St. to average 72.5 PPG in 2 blowout losses SU this season. The Ilini will hope the 3rd attempt is the charm on the biggest stage of their season. G Demetri McCamey is averaging 15 PPG and 6.8 APG this season in leading the Illini.
Fighting Illini are 1-6 ATS last 7 neutral site games.
Over is 5-1 last 6 neutral site games.
Key Injuries - C Mike Tisdale (Achilles) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 65
Buckeyes (-7, O/U 127): It appears destiny might very well be on the side of Ohio St, as the Buckeyes advanced in the Big 10 tourney thanks to a buzzer beating 3 pointer. All American G Evan Turner provided the fireworks, as he made a 37 footer as time expired to help the Buckeyes win 69-68. The reigning Big 10 player of the year had 18 PTS and 8 assists to go along with his game winning 3 pointer. Ohio St. is now 25-7 SU on the season and ranked #5 in the country. The Buckeyes have won 11 of their past 12 games, shooting up the national rankings in the process. The Buckeyes are 8-6 SU and 6-8 ATS away from home this season. Ohio St. is 7-2 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Coach Motta has his players buying into his system, as the Buckeyes have won at least 20 games for Motta in every season he's coached them. Turner is the complete package, as he's averaged 19.5 PPG, 9.4 RPG, and 5.8 APG this season.
Buckeyes are 7-3 ATS last 10 neutral site games.
Over is 8-1 last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 71 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Big XII Championship
By Judd Hall
Rivalries are just one of many things that make college sports so entertaining. Put one of those rivalries in a championship game and you have something pretty special. We’re getting something special as the Wildcats and Jayhawks do battle at 6:00 p.m. EST on ESPN for the Big XII championship.
Kansas (31-2 straight up, 13-16-1 against the spread) comes into this contest with the expectations of being this far. After all, the Jayhawks have been the top-ranked team in the nation for almost two-thirds of the season.
Bill Self’s starting crew is the perfect mesh of youth and experience. Senior guard Sherron Collins anchors a unit that features freshman Xavier Henry, plus sophomores Tyshawn Taylor, Marcus Morris and junior Cole Aldrich.
The result of that lineup for Kansas is an offense that is fifth in the nation in scoring (82.2 points per game), 56th in scoring defense (63.7 PPG) and second nationally in defensive field goal percentage (37.7).
As the Jayhawks found themselves clicking to close out the regular season, gamblers have been cashing in for a nice profit. That’s because KU has posted a 3-1 ATS mark in its final four contests with the ‘under’ going 2-1-1.
Any team will be able to help the better degenerates out there when you have guys like Collins lead with 26 points against Texas A&M as the Jayhawks won 79-66 as 9 ½-point favorites on Friday evening. Henry did his part with 15 points against the Aggies, while Aldrich cleaned the glass like a top-shelf hotel maid for nine rebounds.
I don’t want to say a game won’t mean anything towards its tourney chances, but this game means nothing for KU. The Jayhawks are already penciled in as a No. 1 seed for the NCAA Tournament and most likely the top seed for the whole thing.
While the Jayhawks are the national darlings, Kansas State’s (26-6 SU, 18-8-1 ATS) inferiority complex grows. Frank Martin’s Wildcats are currently ranked ninth on the Associated Press poll and finished just behind KU in the Big XII regular season standings.
The Wildcats have found themselves in the hunt for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament because of having one of the more veteran starting lineups in the country. Jacob Pullen anchors this unit with 19.1 PPG and a beard that would make Merlin Olsen send him some flowers from the next ethereal plane. Denis Clemente has been a strong producer for K-State with 16.2 PPG for the season.
K-State has been a solid wager for the gambling public by going 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven contests. Bettors have been able to cash in on the ‘over’ with the ‘Cats as it is on a 3-0 run.
The Wildcats don’t have any problems about getting into the Big Dance. What is on the line for them is a potential No. 1 seed should they win. Of course, they’re fighting with the likes of Kentucky and Ohio State for that coveted station in the brackets.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Jayhawks as five-point favorites with a total of 146.
This year Kansas won both matchups, but covered in just one of those tilts. In fact, the head-to-head has been slanted squarely to the Jayhawks. KU is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last ten contests between these intrastate rivals.
The Jayhawks have been favored in every game they’ve had on the board this season, going 28-2 SU and 13-16-1 ATS. The ‘under’ has gone 14-12-1 in that stretch as well.
Being an underdog is relatively foreign territory for K-State since they’ve only been in this position five times this season. The Wildcats went 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in that spot, with the ‘over’ going 3-2.
As far as the tournament history goes, this is a favorite’s championship game. In the 13 matchups, the faves are 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS. The ‘under’ has gone 9-4 in those contests.
This is Kansas State’s first trip to the big game, but the Jayhawks’ eighth time on this stage. Kansas won six of its first seven trips to the title game, covering in five of those battles.
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Big East Championship
By Chris David
The Big East Tournament concludes on Saturday Night and if the current trends continue, it looks like we’re going to see Georgetown (23-9 straight up, 16-12 against the spread) barking to a championship victory over West Virginia (26-6 SU, 13-18 ATS). After 14 games played at Madison Square Garden this week, the underdogs have posted an impressive 10-4 (71%) ATS mark. Surprisingly, those same ‘dogs have only gone 5-9 SU, which tells us that the oddsmakers have been off on their numbers and the favorites are doing just enough to win yet not cover.
For tonight’s finale, most sportsbooks opened up the Mountaineers as 2 ½-point favorites over the Hoyas. Recently, these two teams tangled on Mar. 1 in Morgantown and West Virginia captured an 81-68 wire-to-wire victory as a seven-point favorite. Bob Huggins’ team only shot 43 percent from the field in the win, but they did post a solid performance from the free throw line (27-of-34).
Georgetown shot better (49%) from WVU in the setback but the team hurt itself with 20 turnovers. Also, the Hoyas’ leading scorer Austin Freeman (16.8 PPG) sat out this game after getting diagnosed with diabetes.
Freeman returned to the team and VegasInsider.com handicapper Matt Fargo believes he’s key to Georgetown’s quartet but the team is in trouble after the foursome.
“Georgetown is not a very deep team and that is a big cause for concern here. The Hoyas have made a great run to get to this championship and they are the talk of the conference but this is the fourth game in four days and this is a tired bunch. The big four of Austin Freeman, Greg Monroe, Chris Wright and Jason Clark all averaged over 34 minutes per game during the regular season. During the first three games of the Big East Tournament, they have averaged a combined 35.4 minutes and that is with Greg Monroe playing just 25 minutes against USF because of foul trouble. Despite big wins over the Bulls Wednesday and Marquette Friday, the Hoyas were unable to rest starters. That fatigue could be a major issue here and it is not being talked about at all here,” explained Fargo.
Fargo mentioned the wins over USF and Marquette but the signature victory for the Hoyas this week came on Thursday against Syracuse (91-84). The club shot 58 percent from the field in the win, and they also shot 50-plus percent against the Golden Eagles on Friday. What’s going to happen if the shots don’t fall?
“West Virginia held Notre Dame to 34.1 percent shooting last night and the defense of Huggins’ troops have been the backbone and in every game where it held the opposition to 68 or fewer points the Mountaineers won, going 21-0,” added Fargo.
The Mountaineers do have some playmakers as well, including Da’Sean Butler (17.3 PPG, 3.3 APG). He’s averaging 20 PPG and 7.7 rebounds in the first three tournament games, plus his game-winning 3-pointer helped the Mountaineers beat Cincinnati (54-51) on Thursday.
Gamblers at Sportsbook.com are backing Georgetown in this spot due to the latest betting trends, plus they’re money is leaning towards the ‘over’ as well.
Even though the Hoyas put up 90 and 80 in their last two games, the defense and tempo played by West Virginia has been an automatic ‘under’ ticket. All three WVU games in the tournament have gone ‘under’ the total, while the ‘over’ has gone 2-1 for Georgetown. Overall, the ‘under’ has gone 9-5 in the first 14 games played at the Garden.
History is on Georgetown’s side for tonight, considering the school has won a record seven Big East championships, with the most recent title coming in 2007. West Virginia has only earned one trip to the Big East title game, and the school came up short to Syracuse (59-68) in 2005.
ESPN will provide national coverage of this game, which is slated for 9:00 p.m. EST.
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