Saturday's Early Action
By Chris David
ACC: Florida State vs. North Carolina (ESPN2, 1:30 p.m.)
The Tar Heels didn’t have ACC Player of the Year, Ty Lawson, on Friday but that didn’t stop the school from advancing to the ACC semifinals. UNC trailed for the majority of the game but found a way to escape with a 79-76 victory over Virginia Tech. Tyler Hansbrough led all players with 28 points, and added eight rebounds. He was 10-for-10 from the free throw line and converted two big ones late. UNC failed to cover as an 11 ½-point favorite and has been burning backers lately. The Tar Heels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
Florida State also had a tight affair on Friday. The Seminoles got a reverse layup from Derwin Kitchen late in the game that helped the school defeat Georgia Tech 64-62. The ‘Noles failed to cover as five-point favorites and the combined 128 points went ‘under’ closing number of 135.
North Carolina and Florida State met on Jan. 29 in Tallahassee and Ty Lawson earned the ‘Heels an 80-77 victory with a 3-pointer at the buzzer. UNC led 46-35 at the break in this game but folded late before Lawson’s heroics. The team shot just 38 percent from the field, while FSU connected on 47 percent of its shots. Toney Douglas paced the Seminoles with 32 points.
FSU covered as an 11-point home underdog in the regular season battle and has now covered three straight against UNC. The ‘over’ has cashed in the last three meetings.
Experience leans to UNC in this matchup. This will be FSU’s first trip to the semifinals of the ACC tournament since 1992, which was its first year in the conference.
The status of Lawson remains up in the air, yet the line seems to have him sitting out. The oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened UNC as a seven-point ‘chalk’. One offshore outlet led with a number of UNC minus-9.
Big 10: Ohio State vs. Michigan State (CBS, 1:40 p.m.)
Michigan State won its sixth consecutive game on Friday with a 64-56 victory over Minnesota in the quarterfinals of the Big 10 tourney. The Spartans barely covered as 7 ½-point favorites, but the team still has a lot of glaring flaws. MSU only shot 61 percent (19-of-31) from free throw line and turned the ball over 15 times.
It definitely wasn’t the Spartans best game and they were fortunate to have the Golden Gophers shoot 37 percent from the floor and a pathetic 48 percent (13-of-27) from the charity stripe. “It wasn’t pretty,” MSU head coach Tom Izzo admitted.
Despite the inconsistencies, MSU has quietly ripped off six straight and has won nine of its last 10 games. The club is 7-3 ATS during this run and the ‘under’ has notched a 9-1 mark as well.
Another typical ugly battle could be on tap come Saturday, when the Spartans face Ohio State. The Buckeyes outslugged Wisconsin 61-57 in a game that was physical from start to finish. Thad Matta’s team stepped up on defense when it matter and held the Badgers without a field goal for the final six minutes. OSU closed the game on a 14-3 run for the victory and cover as a three-point underdog.
The Buckeyes have won three straight and four of their last five. Two of the four wins have come outside of Columbus. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight.
They say it’s tough to beat a team three times in a season and that’s the dilemma that Michigan State faces against OSU. The Spartans defeated the Buckeyes 78-67 in Columbus on Jan. 25 and in East Lansing 67-58 on Jan. 6. OSU saved some face by covering the road battle, but was outclassed in both matchups.
The early line has MSU as a seven-point favorite. LVSC posted the total at 123, which is the lowest ‘over/under’ in the last 11 meetings between the two schools. It could have something to do with the Spartans ‘under’ run mentioned above.
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Big Ten Semifinals
By Judd Hall
The Big Ten has watched its tournament slowly thin the herd of who can claim total victory. We’re in the semifinals now. Let’s take a look at the games.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed Michigan State (26-5 straight up, 16-11-1 against the spread) as a 6 ½-point favorite with a total of 123.
--If there is one thing we can say about the Spartans’ 64-56 win over Minnesota on Friday it doesn’t have to look pretty to be a victory. MSU may have shot better in the field than the Golden Gophers, 47.6 percent to 37.7 percent. Yet Tubby Smith’s crowd outplayed Michigan State in the first half as they trailed just 33-30.
--Raymar Morgan wasn’t much of a factor for MSU as he played just 17 minutes with as many fouls as he had points (4). Chris Allen paced all Spartans with 17 points. But Goran Suton did the most to get the Spartans to their second straight conference semifinal with nine points and 10 rebounds.
--The Buckeyes took their NCAA chances into their own hands as they dropped Wisconsin as three-point pups, 61-57. Ohio State (20-9 SU, 14-11 ATS) and the Badgers were tight throughout with Wisky winning the turnover battle, 11-7. Normally this would kill the Bucks but they were able to shoot 50 percent from the field, while holding Bo Ryan’s kids to 36 percent.
--Evan Turner once again was OSU’s top player with 19 points, four rebounds and four assists. The Bucks also received a solid performance out of their newest version of “Old Man Time,” Dallas Lauderdale. The imposing forward scored eight points and five boards, while accounting for all of Ohio State’s four blocks.
--This game is not only important in terms of winning the league’s tourney, it means a lot on the national side of things as well. Ohio State most likely clinched its spot by beating the Badgers, but it’s best to eliminate all doubt with a win on Saturday. The Spartans’ Tom Izzo has been harping on his team deserving a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Now that the Panthers, Huskies, Jayhawks and Sooners all have bowed out of their league brackets, Michigan State has a perfect opportunity to jump in and snatch a top spot.
--The past two years of this series have been dominated by the Spartans, going 4-1 SU. However, the Bucks hold a 3-2 ATS record in those games.
--Ohio State is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in its last five matches. Michigan State has won six straight contests SU. And they’ve even helped out the bettors with a 4-2 ATS mark.
--The Spartans have seen the ‘under’ go 9-1 in their last 10 fixtures. The Buckeyes are also a solid ‘under’ squad, cashing tickets a clip of 6-3.
--You can catch this game on CBS at 1:40 p.m. EDT.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Purdue Boilermakers
--Illinois (25-8 SU, 8-17-1 ATS) appeared to be ready for a dogfight against the Wolverines as they were ahead just 25-24 at halftime. The Fighting Illini were able to get things rolling in the final 20 minutes to win as two-point favorites, 60-50.
--The Illini have the third best scoring defense in the nation allowing just 56.5 points per game. They’re just as stingy on field goal percentage, giving up 39.5 percent for the year. Both game into play on Friday…especially on total defense with Michigan hitting a paltry 33.3 percent from the field.
--Mike Davis helped pace the Fighting Illini 22 points and 10 boards in 36 minutes of work. Trent Meacham also put together a nice outing with 10 points and five helpers.
--Purdue (23-9 SU, 14-14 ATS) was firing on all cylinders from the opening tip-off against the Nittany Lions. The Boilermakers smacked down Penn State as seven-point favorites last night, 79-65. Matt Painter’s crew was just unconscious all night long, shooting 55.6 percent from the field and connecting on 12 of their 22 three-point shots.
--Robbie Hummel has been fairly quiet in the recent past, scoring eight points in each of his last two starts. It turns out that he was just resting up for Friday by posting 20 points and five boards. E’Twaun Moore and Keaton Grant both logged in with 15 points against Penn State.
--Illinois is hoping that they can pull off the hat trick in this matchup. That’s because they’re 2-0 SU and ATS this season against Purdue.
--Now before bettors start throwing their money on the Boilermakers, just remember this: Purdue is 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in its last six conference games.
--CBS will be carrying this contest at 4:05 p.m. EDT.
vegasinsider.com
Pac-10 Finals
By Brad Young
Arizona State is making its first trip to the Pac-10 Tournament Championship Game behind the league’s Player of the Year. Sophomore guard James Harden helped the Sun Devils upend Washington for just the second time the past 15 games between the schools.
Fourth-seeded Arizona State entered Staples Center this week armed with a dismal 3-10 record in previous conference tournaments, having never even reached the semifinals until this year.
Sixth-seeded Southern Cal is also an unexpected participant in Saturday’s showdown after upsetting crosstown-rival UCLA. The Bruins swept the Trojans during the regular season, but now USC is a win away from a guaranteed slot in the NCAA Tournament.
The Trojans appeared to be headed to the National Invitational Tournament after dropping six games during a seven-game stretch at the end of February. However, USC’s current four-game winning streak may have this team dancing after Selection Sunday.
There is no overnight line or total on the Pac-10 Tournament Championship Game. CBS Sports will provide coverage of Saturday’s finale from Staples Center beginning at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Arizona State (24-8 straight up, 18-10 against the spread) advanced to the league final after upending top-seeded Washington Friday night as a one-point underdog, 75-65. The combined 140 points slithered ‘over’ the 138-point closing total.
The Sun Devils jumped out to a 21-point lead at one point, but Washington clawed back in the second half and even took a brief 60-58 lead. Arizona State finished the contest with a slight rebounding advantage, 33-30, while shooting a solid 50 percent (26-of-52) from the field and 50 percent (8-of-16) from behind the arc.
Harden led the charge with 24 points, nine rebounds and four assists, while forward Jeff Pendergraph added 18 and seven. Four starters reached double digits in scoring, but the bench only produced five points.
The Sun Devils sport a 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS record away from home, winning those games by an average score of 72-60.
Southern Cal (20-12 SU, 16-14 ATS) upset second-seeded UCLA Friday night as a seven-point underdog, 65-55. The combined 120 points never seriously threatened the 133 ½-point closing total. The Trojans have now earned 20 wins or more the past three seasons, the first time in school history.
USC outrebounded the Bruins, 39-36, while limiting UCLA to a miserable 27 percent (19-of-70) from the field. The Trojans connected at a 51-percent clip (23-of-45) from the field, and 60 percent (3-of-5) from behind the arc. The only reason the game was in question for a brief time down the stretch was because USC struggled by shooting just 53 percent (16-of-30) from the free-throw line.
Forward DeMar DeRozan led all scorers with 21 points on 7-of-12 shooting while grabbing 13 rebounds. Teammate Taj Gibson contributed 12 and 11 in the victory, and guard Dwight Lewis added 14.
USC maintains a 5-10 SU and 7-7 ATS road record, but it should be noted that Staples Center is 1.2 miles from the Trojans’ Galen Center.
Arizona State and USC split the season series this year, with the home team prevailing each time. The Trojans triumphed January 15 as a home ‘pick,’ 61-49, while the Sun Devils returned the favor February 15 as a seven-point home ‘chalk,’ 65-53.
USC leads the all-time series with Arizona State, 47-32, but the Sun Devils are 2-0 versus the Trojans when playing in the Pac-10 Tournament.
vegasinsider.com
Big East Finals
By B Edwards
Syracuse is back in the Big East Tournament finals at Madison Square Garden for the 14th time during Jim Boeheim’s storied career. To get there, the Orange had to survive seven overtimes in a 24-hour stretch against UConn and West Virginia.
Syracuse needed six extra sessions to get past the Huskies, but just one to dispose of the Mountaineers on Saturday as 6 ½-point underdogs. Bettors backing the ‘Cuse on the money line (per my suggestion in Friday’s chat) collected a plus-240 payout (paid $240 on $100 bets).
One night after playing 67 minutes, Jonny Flynn had 15 points and nine assists. Eric Devendorf scored a team-high 23 points. Like I pointed out in the chat, Syracuse’s zone defense doesn’t require guards to expend as much energy, so I wasn’t concerned with Flynn and Devendorf being gassed.
I’m not tonight, either. Georgia was in a somewhat similar situation last year after playing a doubleheader on Saturday before facing Arkansas in the SEC Tournament finals. The Dawgs beat the more-rested Razorbacks on Sunday to get an NCAA bid.
Gerry McNamara became an MSG legend by leading the Orange to the finals in 2006, and the ‘Cuse finished the job on Sunday. That’s not to say Syracuse definitely wins tonight by any means, but bettors shouldn’t get too carried away in thinking Syracuse will have nothing left in the tank.
With that said, we should point out that Syracuse is playing its fourth game in as many days on top of the seven-overtime thing. Louisville didn’t have to play on Wednesday thanks to a bye. Therefore, Syracuse has played 155 minutes in four days, while the Cardinals have played just 60 during that span.
Louisville (27-5 straight up, 20-12 against the spread) hasn’t needed any OTs – yet. The Cardinals did need a second-half rally against Villanova in Saturday’s semifinal showdown. ‘Nova was in control at intermission with a 34-26 lead. However, Rick Pitino’s team came out like gang busters in the second half, eventually capturing a 69-55 win as a 4 ½-point favorite.
Early Clark was the catalyst with 17 points, 17 rebounds, four assists and four steals. Jerry Smith knocked down four 3-pointers and finished with 16 points.
Terrence Williams had a bad shooting night and scored just five points, but he showed you why he’s so good. Williams is the kind of player that can have a significant impact on a game in a positive way even when he can’t buy a bucket. He had 11 rebounds, six assists and three steals.
Syracuse (26-8 SU, 17-13 ATS) has won seven in a row both SU and ATS, including Thursday’s epic 127-117 win over UConn as a 5 ½-point underdog.
The ‘over’ is also on fire for the ‘Cuse, cashing at a 7-2 clip in its last nine games. The Orange have seen the ‘over’ go 19-11 overall this year. On the other hand, the ‘under’ has hit in three straight for Louisville and is 16-14 overall.
These teams met once this year at the Carrier Dome on Jan. 25. Louisville captured a 67-57 win as a one-point road favorite. The 124 combined points fell ‘under’ the 144 ½-point total. Clark led U of L into the win column with 16 points, 13 rebounds and five assists. Devendorf had a team-high 20 points for the ‘Cuse.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants didn’t release an overnight line. LVSC oddsmaker Mike Seba is suggesting Louisville as a six-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 137 1/2.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--North Carolina needed a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from Ty Lawson to escape Tallahassee with a victory during the regular season. This time around, Lawson might not even be in uniform when these teams collide this afternoon at the Georgia Dome. The Seminoles have covered the spread in three straight head-to-head meetings against UNC. For the season, Leonard Hamilton’s team is 10-4-1 ATS in 15 games as an underdog. FSU has outstanding interior defenders in Solomon Alabi, Chris Singleton and Uche Echefu. Alabi and Singleton combined for seven blocked shots in Friday’s win over Ga. Tech. Tyler Hansbrough will have a tough time going against FSU’s “bigs” who are long and physical.
--Bruce Pearl’s top assistant coach, Tony Jones, is believed to be a leading candidate for the vacant head-coaching job at Tennessee State.
--Former Virginia player and head coach Jeff Jones is now the head coach at American, which won the Patriot League’s automatic berth with Saturday’s 73-57 win over Holy Cross. Jones is back in the NCAA Tournament, while the Wahoos are home and don’t appear anywhere near getting back to the Big Dance anytime soon.
--Twenty years after leading Michigan to the national title as interim head coach, Steve Fisher has his San Diego St. team on the cusp of an NCAA Tournament invite. The Aztecs have beaten UNLV and BYU over the last two days. They face Utah tonight in the Mountain West Conference finals in Las Vegas at the Thomas & Mack Center. Versus will have television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
Editor's note: Brian Edwards went 4-2 Saturday and has games galore in his pick pack for today, including this pay-if-it-wins-only selection!
vegasinsider.com
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Atlanta)
(22) Florida St. (24-8, 18-7-1 ATS) vs. (1) North Carolina (28-3, 11-18-1 ATS)
North Carolina, playing minus dinged-up point guard Ty Lawson, narrowly held off Virginia Tech 79-76 in Friday’s quarterfinals, falling far short of covering as an 11½-point chalk. The Tar Heels are now on a 14-1 SU tear, but they’ve gone just 5-10 ATS in that stretch, including dropping their last three ATS decisions. And the conference tourney has yielded similar results, as Carolina – which won this event the past two years – is now 5-0 SU and 0-5 ATS in its last five ACC tourney starts.
Florida State edged Georgia Tech 64-62 Thursday as a five-point favorite, which halted a three-game ATS upswing. The Seminoles are now 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) on neutral floors this season, outscoring their opponents by an average of more than seven points per game (71-63.75). Since 2006, FSU has gone a middling 3-3 SU and ATS in the conference tourney.
This will mark the third straight year Carolina and Florida State have met in the ACC tourney, with the Tar Heels winning the previous two years and going 1-1 ATS. In January, Carolina held on for an 80-77 road win but couldn’t cover as a healthy 11-point chalk, and the underdog is now 9-4 ATS in the last 13 clashes in this rivalry.
The Tar Heels have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight neutral-site games – mostly through their run to the Final Four last year – but they are otherwise on a bundle of ATS slides, including 0-6 against winning teams, 1-6 overall (all in the ACC), 1-4 after a spread-cover and 5-16 after a SU win. On the flip side, the Seminoles are on nothing but positive pointspread streaks, including 22-8-2 overall, 6-0 at neutral sites, 6-1 against winning teams and 17-5-2 in the ACC.
The over for North Carolina is on rolls of 5-1 overall (all in the ACC), 4-1 on Saturday and 12-4-2 at neutral sites, and the over is 2-0-1 in the last three meetings between these two teams. However, the under for Florida State is on streaks of 5-1 overall (all in ACC play), 12-4-2 on neutral courts and 7-1-1 with the ‘Noles a neutral-site pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE
Maryland (20-12, 14-10-2 ATS) vs. (9) Duke (26-6, 15-15-1 ATS)
Upstart Maryland continued to make some noise in its last-ditch effort to earn a Big Dance bid, upending second-seeded Wake Forest 75-64 as a six-point underdog Friday, just 10 days after losing by a bucket at home to the Demon Deacons. With their second straight win and cover in the ACC tourney, the Terrapins are now 4-2 SU and ATS on neutral courts this season, and this marks the first time since 2004 that they’ve won more than one conference tournament game.
Third-seeded Duke narrowly dodged the upset against Boston College on Friday, winning 66-65 but failing to cash as an 11-point chalk after entering the tourney on a 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS roll. The Blue Devils, now 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) on neutral courts this season, got it done against the Eagles by shooting nearly eight percent better from the floor, hitting 46.8 percent of their shots while holding BC to just 39 percent. In its four neutral-site contests, Duke has outshot its opponents 47.5 percent to 39 percent.
Duke beat Maryland SU and ATS in both meetings this season, trampling the Terps 85-44 as a 15-point home chalk in January and 78-67 as a six-point road favorite 2½ weeks ago. The Blue Devils are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight clashes, going off as the favorite in all eight games.
The seventh-seeded Terrapins are still just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 neutral-site starts, though they sport positive ATS streaks of 7-3 against winning teams and 13-5-1 in their last 18 Saturday starts. On the flip side, the Blue Devils are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 Saturday outings and a dismal 10-21 ATS in their last 31 neutral-court contests.
The under for Maryland is on stretches of 5-1 overall (all in ACC action), 6-1 at neutral sites and 5-1 against winning teams, and the under for Duke is on streaks of 25-11 overall, 9-1 on neutral courts and 16-5 in ACC contests. In addition, the total stayed low in both of this season’s meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT
(at St. Louis, Mo.)
Temple (21-11, 17-11-1 ATS) vs. Duquesne (21-11, 14-11 ATS)
Duquesne, the seventh seed in the A-10, dropped second-seeded Rhode Island 78-74 as a four-point ‘dog Friday for its second straight win and cover, following a three-game ATS skid to end the regular season. The Dukes, who hadn’t played a neutral-site game all season until Thursday, have posted two wins in the A-10 tourney for the first time this decade, shooting a solid 51.9 percent from the floor while yielding 43.2 percent shooting.
Temple squeaked past top-seeded Xavier 55-53 Friday as a four-point pup, following up on its 79-65 rout of St. Joe’s a night earlier. The fourth-seeded Owls are now on a 4-0 SU and ATS surge, and they’ve also gone 4-0 ATS (3-1 SU) in their four neutral-site outings this season, by an average final margin of 71.2-64.8., shooting a mediocre 43.2 percent but holding opponents to just 37.8 percent from the floor.
In this season’s lone meeting, Temple beat Duquesne 78-73 on the road in a non-lined contest a month ago. In the six games prior to that, the two teams had alternated ATS wins and losses, with Temple going 4-2 SU.
The Dukes are now 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral-site outings, while the Owls are on ATS tears of 26-9-1 in the A-10 and 23-10-1 against winning teams.
The under is on runs of 6-1 for Duquesne at neutral sites, 4-1 with the Dukes facing a team with a win percentage above .600, 8-2 in Temple’s last 10 starts (all in A-10 play) and 5-2 for the Owls at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Ohio State (21-9, 15-11 ATS) vs. (7) Michigan State (26-5, 16-11-1 ATS)
Michigan State had yet another lackluster offensive effort Friday in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals at Conseco Fieldhouse, but thankfully for the Spartans, their defense stepped up in a 64-56 victory over Minnesota, barely cashing as a 7½-point favorite. Michigan State has won six in a row and nine of its last 10 (7-3 ATS). Despite shooting 47.6 percent from the field (5-for-12 from three-point range) in Friday’s win, Michigan State was held to 64 points or less for the seventh time in the last eight games.
Ohio State all but locked up a berth in next week’s Big Dance by outlasting Wisconsin 61-57 on Friday, covering as a 3 ½-point underdog. The Buckeyes, who have won three in a row (2-1 ATS), shot an even 50 percent from the field (5-for-11 on three-pointers) while holding the Badgers to 36 percent. OSU’s three-game winning streak follows a 1-4 slump (2-3 ATS), and Thad Matta’s troops have now alternated spread-covers in their last six outings.
Michigan State has won three in a row in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), posting a pair of easy wins in January (67-58 as an 11-point home favorite and 78-67 as a three-point road chalk). The Spartans’ run against Ohio State began with a 67-60 victory as a 4½-point favorite in the quarterfinals of last year’s Big Ten tournament.
Although the Buckeyes have won six of their last eight tournament games, including the 2006 championship, they’re just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games in this event going back to 2003 (1-4 ATS as an underdog. Meanwhile, Michigan State, which lost in last year’s conference tournament semifinals, has cashed in three straight in the Big Ten tourney (2-0 ATS as a favorite) after going 1-5 ATS in its previous six (0-4 ATS as a chalk).
Ohio State is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games at neutral sites (2-0 SU and ATS this year) and 4-1 ATS in its last five on Saturday. Michigan State’s ATS streaks include 7-3 overall (all in the Big Ten), 8-3-1 at neutral venues (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS this season), 6-1 on Saturday and 4-1 versus winning teams, and the Spartans are 10-2-1 ATS this season when laying single digits.
The under is on streaks of 36-15-1 for Ohio State on Saturday, 9-1 for Michigan State overall (all in the Big Ten), 5-1 for Michigan State on Saturday and 5-2 for Michigan State at neutral sites. Also, four of the last six meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER
Illinois (23-8, 15-11-1 ATS) vs. (24) Purdue (22-9, 12-15 ATS)
Illinois, which ended the regular season with consecutive SU and ATS setbacks, snapped out of its funk with Friday’s 60-50 victory over Michigan as a two-point favorite in quarterfinal action. The Illini, who won their opening-round Big Ten tournament game for the 12th time in the last 13 years, led by just a single point at halftime, but came out of the break strong and finished shooting 47 percent from the floor while holding the Wolverines to 34 percent. Still, including the win over Michigan, Illinois has scored 66 points or less in 12 of its last 13 games, averaging just 57.5 ppg during this stretch.
Purdue also snapped a two-game SU and ATS slide with Friday’s 79-65 rout of Penn State, cashing easily as a 7½-point chalk. Although the Boilermakers have won six of their last nine SU, they’re just 5-7-1 ATS in their last 13, all in Big Ten action. Purdue has been incredibly inconsistent offensively over its last 11 games, scoring 61 points or fewer five times, but 72 points or more six times.
Illinois swept the season series this year, squeaking out a 71-67 overtime win as an eight-point underdog on Dec. 30, then rolling to a 66-48 victory as a 2½-point home favorite. The Illini have won and covered three in a row – including a 74-67 overtime victory as a 4½-point underdog in last year’s Big Ten tournament – and they’re 7-3 SU but just 4-5-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
Illinois, which lost to Wisconsin in last year’s tournament championship game, is 6-2 SU (4-4 ATS) in the Big Ten tournament since 2007. Meanwhile, Purdue on Friday advanced past the opening round of this tournament for just the second time in the last eight years, and it is 3-5 ATS in its last eight in this event.
Despite its easy spread-cover yesterday, Purdue remains just 2-4 ATS in its last six overall and 2-5 ATS in its last seven at neutral sites, and the Boilers are 1-6 ATS as a favorite of less than five points. Illinois is on ATS streaks of 5-0 at neutral sites and 7-0-1 on Saturday.
The Illini are on “under” streaks of 12-4 overall (all in the Big Ten), 6-1 on neutral courts (4-0 last four) and 16-5-1 on Saturday. Also, the under is 4-1 in Purdue’s last five on Saturday. However, the over is 6-1 in Purdue’s last seven at neutral venues and 4-1 in the last five in this rivalry, the lone “under” occurring in last month’s battle at Illinois.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ILLINOIS and UNDER
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Tampa, Fla.)
Mississippi State (21-12, 16-10-1 ATS) vs. (20) LSU (26-6, 13-11 ATS)
SEC regular-season champion LSU topped Kentucky 67-58 Friday as a one-point favorite in its conference tourney opener, halting a two-game SU and ATS hiccup that followed a 10-game SU surge (6-4 ATS). It was only the second neutral-site game all season for the Tigers, who lost 72-61 to Texas A&M as a 1½-point chalk on a neutral floor in December. LSU has now won four of its last five SEC openers, but after past three wins, it has followed up with a SU loss (1-2 ATS).
Mississippi State rolled over South Carolina 82-68 Friday as a 2½-point pup for its fourth straight win and cover, including two games so far in this tournament. The Bulldogs are now 2-2 SU and ATS this season at neutral sites, averaging 71.5 ppg and giving up 65. During their current four-game run, though, the Bulldogs have put up 80.75 ppg – well above their season average of 74.6 – while allowing 69.8 ppg.
LSU has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 SU), after a four-game ATS run by Mississippi State (3-1 SU), with the Tigers taking a 97-94 double-overtime win in February as a one-point road pup to sweep the season series SU and ATS.
Despite Friday’s win and cover, the Tigers are still on pointspread declines of 1-6 in neutral-site contests and 11-29-1 in their last 41 Saturday starts. Meanwhile, along with their current 4-0 ATS surge (all in the SEC), the Bulldogs are on a 4-1 ATS uptick against winning teams.
The over for LSU is on tears of 7-2 on neutral floors, 4-0 after a SU win, 9-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 12-3 after a spread-cover. Furthermore, the over for Mississippi State is on rolls of 5-1-1 overall (all in SEC action), 5-0-1 after a SU win and 23-8-1 after a spread-cover.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last three meetings, with the February contest already above the 139½-point posted price at the end of regulation (72-72).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Auburn (22-10, 20-5 ATS) vs. Tennessee (20-11, 13-15-1 ATS)
Surging Auburn edged Florida 61-58 as a 3½-point underdog Friday, snapping the Gators’ 10-0 SU stranglehold in this rivalry. The win also gave the Tigers a 9-1 SU and a perfect 10-0 ATS record in its last 10 starts, all within the SEC. It was Auburn’s first neutral-court win in three tries this season (2-1 ATS), and the victory snapped an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS slide in SEC tournament play.
Tennessee thumped Alabama 86-62 giving eight points Friday in its SEC tourney opener, quickly avenging a 70-67 home loss as a 13-point chalk in its regular-season finale last Sunday. The Vols are now 3-1 SU and ATS on neutral courts this season, averaging 82 ppg while allowing 71.8 ppg, and in Friday’s win, they outshot the Crimson Tide by nearly 12 percent (48.6-36.7).
In the lone meeting this season between these rivals, Auburn pulled out a 78-77 home victory as a 3½-point pup last month, which launched the Tigers’ current 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS spree. The favorite, though, is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes.
The Tigers’ 20-5 ATS mark for the season is No. 1 in the nation, and they sport additional positive pointspread streaks of 13-2 in the SEC and 9-0 against winning teams. The Vols, meanwhile, are still mired in ATS funks of 8-17-1 at neutral sites, 2-7 after a spread-cover and 2-6 in their last eight SEC tourney tilts, despite Friday’s blowout victory.
The over is 10-5 in Auburn’s last 15 neutral-site starts and is on a 4-0 run for the Tigers against winning teams, and the over has been the play in the last four meetings in this rivalry. But the under is on a 7-2 run for Tennessee, all in SEC action, with last night’s game barely eclipsing the 147½ posted price, and the under is 4-1 in the Tigers’ last five starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: AUBURN
BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
(at Oklahoma City, Okla.)
Baylor (20-13, 11-15 ATS) vs. (14) Missouri (27-6, 16-10 ATS)
Baylor earned its first-ever spot in the Big 12 Tournament title game with a 76-70 upset win over Texas, cashing as a 4½-point underdog. The Bears, who outscored the Longhorns by 12 point in the second half after trailing by six going into the break, put an end to their 24-game losing streak to Texas, 24 hours after they shocked top-seeded Kansas 76-70 as a nine-point underdog.
Missouri scored a 67-59 victory over Oklahoma State in Friday’s semifinal, cashing as a 4½-point favorite. The Tigers held the Cowboys to 35.7 percent shooting, including 3-of-21 from the three-point line. Mizzou, which trounced Texas Tech 81-60 as a 12½-point favorite in Wednesday’s quarterfinal contest, got 19 points from Zaire Taylor as it outscored the Cowboys by 10 in the second half after trailing by two at the break
These two met in Missouri back on Jan. 31 with the Tigers getting an 89-72 victory, cashing as 6½-point favorites. That spread-cover ended the Bears’ 8-0 ATS stranglehold in this rivalry (7-0 ATS as an underdog).
With the three tournament wins, the Bears have covered three straight for the first time this season. However, Baylor is still on ATS slides of 5-14 overall and 3-5 as an underdog, but they are now 5-0 SU and ATS on neutral courts this season and they’ve cashed in 14 of 17 neutral-venue contests. The Tigers have cashed in nine of their last 12 overall and 12 of 16 (all in the Big 12), going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite.
For Missouri, the under is 6-2 in its last eight neutral-site contests, while Baylor is on “under” streaks of 10-2-1 overall (all in conference) and 7-4 in its last 11 neutral-site games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI
PAC-10 TOURNAMENT
(at Los Angeles)
USC (20-12, 16-14 ATS) vs. (23) Arizona State (24-8, 18-10 ATS)
USC strengthened its case for an at-large bid to the Big Dance with a 65-55 upset win over crosstown rival UCLA on Friday night in the Pac-10 semifinals, covering the 6½-point spread from the start The Trojans, who can earn an automatic bid to the Big Dance with a victory over the Sun Devils, got 21 points from DeMar DeRozan and 13 points and 11 rebounds from Taj Gibson.
Arizona State reached its first-ever conference tournament title game with a 75-65 win over regular-season champion Washington, cashing as a one-point chalk. The Sun Devils shot 50 percent from the floor and got 24 points and nine rebounds from Pac-10 Player of the Year James Harden, while holding the Huskies to 36.5 percent shooting.
These teams split their regular-season matchups with the home team getting the win and cover in each contest. Arizona State scored a 65-53 win back on Feb. 15 as a 6½-point favorite while the Trojans got a 61-49 home win a month earlier as one-point home ‘dogs.
USC is 8-1 ATS in its last nine as a neutral-site underdog, but the Trojans are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after a spread-cover and 2-4 ATS in their last six overall as a pup. Arizona State is on ATS runs of 8-3 overall (all in Pac-10 play), 7-2 in neutral-site games and 6-1 after a SU win.
For the Sun Devils, the over is 5-1 in their last six neutral-site contests. Meanwhile, USC has stayed under the total in 10 of 13 neutral-site games, but it is on an 8-5 “over” run, including 4-2 in the last six. The under was the play in both regular-season games between these two this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA STATE
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
(5) Louisville (27-5, 20-11-1 ATS) vs. (18) Syracuse (26-8, 17-13 ATS)
Less than 24 hours after surviving a six-overtime contest to beat UConn in the Big East quarterfinals, Syracuse again had to play an extra period, but wiped out West Virginia in just one overtime with a 74-69 win as a six-point underdog to reach the conference title game. The Orangemen got 21 points from Eric Devendorf and 15 points from Jonny Flynn, who poured in 34 points in 67 minutes of play in Thursday’s thrilling win over UConn.
Louisville turned an eight-point halftime deficit into a 69-55 win over Villanova in Friday’s semifinal, outscoring the Wildcats 43-21 in the final 20 minutes and advancing to its first conference title game in its four years in the Big East. The Cardinals, who have won nine in a row (7-2 ATS), limited Villanova to 36.7 percent shooting and it was the second straight double-digit win for them in the tourney after rolling Providence 73-55 on Thursday as 10½-point favorites.
In their lone matchup this season, the Cardinals went to Syracuse and got a 67-57 win as one-point favorites. It was part of the team’s first nine-game winning streak (7-2 ATS) this season, and Louisville has won the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-0-1 ATS) while going 4-1-1 ATS in six clashes dating to 1998.
Louisville’s ATS runs include 37-16-2 overall and 41-12-3 in Big East play, but it is just 2-4 ATS on neutral courts this season. Syracuse is now riding an 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS streak in Big East tournament action, and the Orange are also 5-1 ATS at neutral sites this season.
Syracuse has topped the total in 14 of 21 Big East games, including nine of the last 13, and seven of its last eight neutral-site games. The Cardinals have stayed under the total in its last three overall and six of its past eight neutral-site contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
CONFERENCE USA TOURNAMENT
(at Memphis, Tenn.)
Tulsa (24-9, 14-13 ATS) vs. (4) Memphis (30-3, 21-11 ATS)
Memphis advanced to its fourth straight Conference USA tournament title game by trashing Houston 74-49 on Friday, easily covering as a 14-point favorite on its home court at the Fed-Ex Forum. The Tigers, who have won the last three regular-season and tournament titles in Conference USA, extended the nation’s longest winning streak to 24 straight games, with 19 of those being double-digit blowouts. John Calipari’s club has also won 60 consecutive league games.
Tulsa set up a rematch of last year’s tournament championship game by scoring a mild upset over UAB in Friday’s other quarterfinal matchup, eking out a 70-67 victory as a 1½-point underdog. The Golden Hurricane, who finished second to Memphis in the league standings, have won seven in a row – including Thursday’s 73-51 rout of Rice in the quarterfinals – and they’ve cashed in five of their last six.
The closest Memphis came to losing a conference game this year came at Tulsa on Jan. 13, when the Tigers made a last-second shot to steal a 55-54 win, failing to cover as a six-point underdog. However, in the rematch a month later at the Fed-Ex Forum, Memphis destroyed the Hurricane 63-37 as a 14-point home chalk, improving to 9-0 SU (5-4 ATS) against Tulsa since 2006. In last year’s C-USA title game, the Tigers pounded the Golden Hurricane 77-51 as an 18-point favorite.
Memphis is on slew of ATS runs, including 13-4 overall, 11-4 in conference, 12-4 as a favorite, 10-2 versus teams with a winning record and 6-2 on Saturday. Also, since losing to Syracuse 72-65 as a nine-point home chalk on Dec. 20, the Tigers are on an 11-2 ATS roll at home.
Despite getting killed by Memphis in the championship game a season ago, Tulsa is on a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS run in postseason play, including winning last year’s inaugural College Basketball Invitational postseason tournament title. The Hurricane are also 4-0 ATS in their last four road/neutral-site contests and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on Saturday.
The under is 6-1 in the last seven series meetings between these squads (3-0 last three). Also, Memphis is on “under” tears of 18-6 overall, 10-4 at home (4-0 last four), 42-19 in conference play and 5-0 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MOUNTAIN WEST TOURNAMENT
(at Las Vegas)
San Diego State (23-8, 15-11-1 ATS) vs. Utah (23-9, 18-13 ATS)
San Diego State held off 25th-ranked BYU 64-62 as a 2½-point underdog on Friday to advance to its first Mountain West Conference tournament final since winning it all in 2006. The Aztecs have won five in a row and 10 of their last 13, and they’ve followed up an 0-6 ATS slide with three straight spread-covers.
Utah barely outlasted TCU on Thursday at the Thomas & Mack Center, prevailing 61-58 but failing to cover as a 9½-point favorite. But the Utes got back on track Friday, trouncing Wyoming 68-55 as a nine-point favorite. Utah has won three in a row 17 of its last 21, going 7-4 ATS in the last 11, and it has reached the conference title game for the first time since losing to New Mexico in 2005.
These rivals have split their last six meetings, with the home team getting the job done each time out. SDSU won this season’s first clash 72-63 as a four-point home chalk on Jan. 10, while the Utes scored a 67-55 win as a five-point favorite a month later. The Aztecs are 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings (3-1 ATS last four).
Despite winning and covering against UNLV and BYU the last two days at the Thomas & Mack Center, San Diego State remains in a 3-9 ATS funk at neutral sites. However, the Aztecs are 10-3-1 ATS in their past 14 Saturday outings. On the flip side, Utah is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 on Saturday, but 4-1 ATS in its last five on neutral courts.
For San Diego State, the under is on runs of 36-15 overall, 8-2 in conference, 4-1 on Saturday, 6-1 at neutral sites and 37-14 after a SU win. Similarly, Utah has stayed under the total in five of its last six games (all in conference) and four straight after a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Big Ten tournament: Semifinals preview and pick
By DAVE CAREY
All games are held at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (+7.5, 126.5)
The key to victory is simple for Ohio State: rebound the ball.
But that’s easier said than done for opponents of top-seeded and regular season Big 10 Champion, Michigan State (26-5, 15-12-1 ATS). The Spartans continued their domination of the glass by grinding out an eight-point win against Minnesota in the quarterfinals by holding a 34-26 advantage on the boards.
In two regular season wins over the fifth-seeded Buckeyes (21-9 SU, 15-11 ATS) the Spartans owned the glass by an average margin of plus-12. That’s slightly better than their conference leading average of more than 10 per game.
And if Michigan State finds itself able to press the tempo, look out. A flurry of alley-oops sparked the team to victory in the second half against the Golden Gophers, led by Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas (14.8 ppg, 4.6 apg), who finished with 12 points.
The Buckeyes counter with Big Ten first team selection Evan Turner (16.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg), Freshman of the Year William Buford (11.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and Sixth Man of the Year B.J. Mullens (9.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg).
Turner was huge for the Buckeyes in a 61-57 win over Wisconsin Friday, finishing with 19 points, four rebounds and four assists as Ohio State finished the game on a 14-3 run.
But even another Herculean effort from Turner won’t be enough to help the Buckeyes turn the page.
Final score prediction: Michigan State 68, Ohio State 59
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Purdue Boilermakers
No Chester Frazier? No problem for Illinois.
The second-seeded Fighting Illini (24-8 SU, 15-11-1 ATS) found out Friday morning they could be without their star guard for the remainder of the season and at least the rest of the conference tournament.
But Frazier’s absence did little to slow down Illinois, which blitzed Michigan early in the second half before cruising to a 60-50 win over the seventh-seeded Wolverines. The team was led by guard Demetri McCamey (11.9 ppg, 4.8 apg), who finished with 12 points and six rebounds. But the real story for Illinois was the play of forward Mike Davis, who posted a dominating 22 points and 10 rebounds.
In a pair of wins over Purdue (23-9, 13-15 ATS) this season, Davis was a beast, combining for 26 points and 22 rebounds. The Boilermakers were also a combined 6-of-31 from beyond the arc.
But making shots from long range wasn’t a problem for Purdue against Penn State, as the third-seed connected on 12-of-22 attempts from downtown to race to a huge lead and ease home to a 79-65 victory. Purdue’s onslaught was led by Robbie Hummel (12.3 ppg, 6.6 rpg), who finished with 20 points and five rebounds.
Look for Hummel to lead the Boilermakers, who played their best game of the season against Penn State, to an upset of the Fighting Illini and berth in Sunday’s title game.
Final score prediction: Purdue 65, Illinois 61
SEC tournament: Semifinals previews and picks
By DAVID JONES
Southeastern Conference tournament games are being played in Tampa, FL.
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers (-3.5)
The Bulldogs hope that the third time will be the charm in this SEC semi-final contest. Mississippi State was swept in the regular season by LSU but the Bulldogs have recorded a pair of double-digit victories in Tampa.
In the quarterfinals Friday, Mississippi State held South Carolina to under 36 percent shooting from the field while owning the rebounding battle 47-31. Defense is the strength of Rick Stansbury's squad, which is complimented by a balanced offense.
With a 21-12 overall record, Mississippi State must win to have a live shot at an NCAA bid. The Bulldogs and Tigers had an epic contest in their last meeting on February 11th in Starkville. LSU survived in double overtime with a 97-94 win.
In a physical battle, the game featured a whopping total of 57 personal fouls with seven players fouling out. The Bulldogs shot only 31 percent from the field while allowing LSU forward Tasmin Mitchell to explode for 41 points.
As the SEC regular season champions, the Tigers didn't rest on their laurels to open the tourney. LSU shutdown Kentucky 67-58 to eliminate the Wildcats from NCAA consideration. SEC scoring leader Jodie Meeks was held to a season-low eight points by a sound LSU defense. Senior guard Marcus Thornton (20.9 ppg.) compliments Mitchell to form a strong inside-outside duo.
Mississippi State will need to contain LSU's big guns to finally break through against the Tigers. With more at stake, the inspired Bulldogs will keep their NCAA hopes alive in another physical confrontation Saturday.
Final score prediction: Mississippi State 68, LSU 67
Auburn Tigers vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Auburn's improbable late-season surge continued in the SEC tournament with a 61-58 victory over Florida Friday. The Tigers have moved into serious NCAA consideration after winning for the ninth time in their last ten outings.
The Gators were held to 36 percent shooting from the field by an aggressive Auburn defense. While no player on the squad averages more than 13 points, the Tigers have three reliable performers who average in double figures. Senior forward Korvotney Barber is a strong presence in the paint with an average of 10 rebounds per game.
Auburn's turnaround began in early February with a dramatic 78-77 home win over Tennessee. The Vols looked sharp in their tourney opener with a blowout win over Alabama. Tennessee's top scorer during the season, forward Tyler Smith, led the attack against the Tide with 22 points. The Vols have their ticket punched to March Madness regardless of the outcome of this matchup with Auburn.
In their earlier meeting, Auburn dominated Tennessee in the rebounding category by a count of 33-18. Rebounding will be a key again Saturday. Tennessee's poor 3-point shooting continued against Alabama with a 4-of-24 performance. These struggles from long range have contributed to an up-and-down year for the talented Volunteers club.
Like Mississippi State, Auburn is the team that has more on the line in this game. The hot Tigers continue their run against the inconsistent Volunteers.
Final score prediction: Auburn 73, Tennessee 71
ACC tournament: Semifinals preview and picks
By DAVID PAYNE
All ACC Tournament games played in Atlanta, Georgia.
Florida State Seminoles vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (-9, 150)
UNC point guard Ty Lawson is unlikely to play in today’s semifinal showdown with Florida State. That means reserves Bobby Frazier and Larry Drew II are running the show for the Tar Heels.
Virginia Tech nearly cancelled that version of the North Carolina show, which managed just five fastbreak points in Friday’s three-point win.
Thanks to Tyler Hansbrough and a couple of questionable calls going their way, the Tar Heels managed to survive the scare from the Hokies.
Will they be able to do it again without Lawson against Florida State?
The Tar Heels certainly will need more out of their perimeter players, especially Danny Green, if they want to knock off the Noles. Green went 1-for-7 from the field and finished with just five points against Virginia Tech.
Florida State boasts the No. 1 scoring defense in the ACC and can throw a whole host of big bodies at Hansbrough.
In a January meeting with UNC, the Seminoles held Hansbrough to just eight points. Luckily for the Tar Heels, Lawson and Green had big games to help UNC escape Tallahassee with a three-point win.
Without Lawson, it will be even more difficult for Hansbrough today.
North Carolina dropped to 11-18 against the spread after Friday’s ATS loss against Virginia Tech.
Florida State, on the other hand, is 17-8-1 against the number.
Final score prediction: North Carolina 73, Florida State 69
Maryland Terrapins vs. Duke Blue Devils
Maryland appears to have played its way into the NCAA tournament with Friday’s convincing win over Wake Forest.
But are the Terrapins satisfied?
They better not be against a Duke team that pounded them by 41 in January and by 11 at Maryland in late February.
The Blue Devils trounced Maryland on the glass in both contests, something that’s been a trend for the Terrapins all season.
But Wake Forest also smacked Maryland around on the boards in an earlier win over the Terrapins.
Friday was an entirely different story, with the smaller Terps out-scrapping the Demon Deacons in every way. Maryland finished with two more rebounds than sluggish Wake.
Gary Williams club will need to mount a similar effort against the Blue Devils, who struggled to put away Boston College on Friday.
Final Score prediction: Duke 71, Maryland 65
TULSA (24 - 9) at MEMPHIS (30 - 3) - 3/14/2009, 11:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
MEMPHIS is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
MEMPHIS is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
MEMPHIS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season.
MEMPHIS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all home games this season.
MEMPHIS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games this season.
MEMPHIS is 121-88 ATS (+24.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games in March games since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 90-62 ATS (+21.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games in all tournament games since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 154-106 ATS (+37.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MEMPHIS is 96-58 ATS (+32.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 4-3 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 7-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MISSISSIPPI ST (21 - 12) vs. LSU (26 - 6) - 3/14/2009, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LSU is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
LSU is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
LSU is 62-39 ATS (+19.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 52-36 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 52-36 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 44-29 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LSU is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LSU is 3-3 against the spread versus MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 4-2 straight up against LSU over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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AUBURN (22 - 10) vs. TENNESSEE (20 - 11) - 3/14/2009, 3:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
AUBURN is 2-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
AUBURN is 2-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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FLORIDA ST (24 - 8) vs. N CAROLINA (28 - 3) - 3/14/2009, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
N CAROLINA is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) against conference opponents this season.
N CAROLINA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 3-3 against the spread versus FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 6-0 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DUKE (26 - 6) vs. MARYLAND (20 - 12) - 3/14/2009, 3:50 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 3-2 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 4-2 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OHIO ST (21 - 9) vs. MICHIGAN ST (26 - 5) - 3/14/2009, 1:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1997.
OHIO ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 4-3 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN ST is 4-3 straight up against OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PURDUE (23 - 9) vs. ILLINOIS (24 - 8) - 3/14/2009, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ILLINOIS is 3-3 against the spread versus PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
ILLINOIS is 3-3 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ARIZONA ST (24 - 8) vs. USC (20 - 12) - 3/14/2009, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA ST is 5-2 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons
USC is 4-3 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BAYLOR (20 - 13) vs. MISSOURI (27 - 6) - 3/14/2009, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BAYLOR is 3-1 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
MISSOURI is 2-2 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DUQUESNE (21 - 11) vs. TEMPLE (21 - 11) - 3/14/2009, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEMPLE is 1-1 against the spread versus DUQUESNE over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE is 2-1 straight up against DUQUESNE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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AKRON (22 - 12) vs. BUFFALO (21 - 10) - 3/14/2009, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
AKRON is 4-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
AKRON is 5-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN DIEGO ST (23 - 8) vs. UTAH (23 - 9) - 3/14/2009, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 4-2 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 3-3 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SYRACUSE (26 - 8) vs. LOUISVILLE (27 - 5) - 3/14/2009, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 3-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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UTAH ST (29 - 4) at NEVADA (21 - 11) - 3/14/2009, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH ST is 5-2 against the spread versus NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
UTAH ST is 4-3 straight up against NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PACIFIC (19 - 11) vs. CS-NORTHRIDGE (16 - 13) - 3/14/2009, 11:59 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PACIFIC is 4-3 against the spread versus CS-NORTHRIDGE over the last 3 seasons
PACIFIC is 5-2 straight up against CS-NORTHRIDGE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MD-BALT COUNTY (15 - 16) at BINGHAMTON (22 - 8) - 3/14/2009, 11:00 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MD-BALT COUNTY is 4-2 straight up against BINGHAMTON over the last 3 seasons
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NORFOLK ST (14 - 17) vs. MORGAN ST (22 - 11) - 3/14/2009, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MORGAN ST is 2-2 straight up against NORFOLK ST over the last 3 seasons
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JACKSON ST (18 - 14) vs. ALABAMA ST (21 - 9) - 3/14/2009, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSON ST is 5-2 straight up against ALABAMA ST over the last 3 seasons
Conference Tournament Thoughts
By Indiancowboy
SEC
Miss State vs. LSU
Miss State is a very strong team but as is LSU and they both meet each other in the semis here of the SEC Championship. It looks as if the SEC has three teams in for sure with LSU, Tennessee and I saw an article on ESPN that had Auburn in as well which I agree with. The question is, will Miss. State get added into the picture? Possibly. LSU is favored by 72% of the public here but the line is around -3.5 and not budging. Miss. State has a huge advantage with size and inside presence which is why they beat SC and LSU has great guard play with Taj Mitchell and others. These two met earlier this year twice and Miss State lost by 24 on the road and had a huge lead at home only to lose in Double OT at home to LSU. I can see this either way frankly, but I would not be a bit surprised if Miss State is very game today.
Auburn vs. Tennessee
I'm a fan of Auburn Basketball this year despite being a Tide fan. Heck, either way I will be happy as one of these programs will lose as I hate Tennessee with a far more passion than anything with Auburn on it as the Tide/Vols rivalry stems for more than a decade. As per this game, Auburn beat this team by 1 earlier this year and has Auburn has won their last 10 of 11 SEC Contests. I can see this either way. Tennessee had revenge in their last contest and look what they did - they have revenge today as well. The offshore line I saw was Tennessee -3 and a total of 145. I can see this either way, but I have to think that Auburn gets down early and continues to play well like they did against Florida. I just hate going against Tennessee who lost to this team earlier this year though.
ACC
FSU vs. North Carolina
Lawson is listed Doubtful on the lasted report that I saw. Florida State just barely got past GT who was making a run at it as this game is held in Atlanta of course. FSU is by no means intimidated against UNC losing to them by just 3 at home. I know Lawson again is listed doubtful for this game but I am never comfortable reading college injury listings b/c many a times you will see the player come off the bench for 20 minutes or so and that makes a huge difference to the psyche of a team - esp. since UNC nearly lost yesterday. This is the same FSU team that shold have beat Duke on the road earlier this yaer losing by 3 points. This is a lot of points here and with or without Lawson, I think FSU is worth a play as overally they are a better team than Va Tech by about 30 spots in the power rankings.
Big 10
Ohio State vs. Michigan State
I have to respect Ohio State's grit to get here and on top of that, I have to respect Michigan State's ability to cover spreads late (i.e. against Minny yesterday). By no means did Michigan State play their best basketball yesterday, but in a total that sits at 126, to lay 8 plus points is nearly suicide given how hard points come by in Big 10 ballgames. No thanks.
Purdue vs. Illinois
Purdue is playing great basketball right now as is Illinois. Purdue lost to this team at home in OT and lost to this team on the road by an even worse margin by 18. The off shore line actually has Purdue favored by 3 to -3.5 and this is in thier home state. But, the Illinois faithful travel extremely well and they have beat this team twice once on their home floor by 18 and the other hitting the road to defeat them in Purdue, in overtime. Tough to go against either team here as Purdue has massive revenge, but I think Illinois sizes up well to them and the 3.5 is nice too. no thanks.
Atlantic 10
Duquesne vs. Temple
I got to take a pass on this game for several reasons including that laying -4.5 is tough to do with Temple, even though tey beat Xavier, even though I believe they are the best team in the Atlantic 10 - not Xavier who gets all the hype and they haev fabulous defense. I really hope we get to see Temple in the Tourney b/c this team is a beast when it comes to defense and they are a solid well coached/discplined team. Heck, they beat Duquesne earlier this year by 5 on the road and I would not be surprised to see Duquesne come out strong but Temple's defense gets the cover similar to what Michigan State does often. Temple is also about 50 spots better than the Dukes as well. A lean on Temple here.
Big 12 Championship
Baylor vs. Missouri
Give Baylor a lot of credit to making it to this agme. They beat a very good Kansas team, hammered Nebraska and beat a solid Texas team late in the game to get to this spot. Baylor understands that if they win this game, they too will indeed go dancing as they use their fresh slate to their ultimate benefit. This team lost to Missouri in a shoototu earlier this year by 17 on the road. I think the result will be difference today as they play them as a +5 point dog is the off-shore line. I lean on Baylor's strong play of late as well as the over.
Big East Championship
Syracuse vs. Louisville
The thing about this game is that I love Louisville as a team overall - and Rick Pitino is one of my favorite coaches. But Syracuse is getting every call under the sun at MSG. I would hate to be any team that plays 'Cuse right now b/c they are getting all the calls there and I promise you the Refs will do anything they can to keep 'Cuse in - after all, it makes for a great headline. Syracuse lost to this team by 10 at home earlier this year, and it's tough to have a lean when you think Louisville is the better team and will win the Championship, yet the public will likly be on Louisville - but the zebras and the crowd will help 'Cuse.
Jackson State vs. Alabama State (Game is in Birmingham)
Jackson State finished the year 15-3 in conference play. They lost early in the year by 6 points to Alabama State only to beat them by 3 at home earlier this year just before tournament play. Alabama State finished the year 16-2 in conference play, one better than Jackson State in wins, has this as a semi-home game in Birmingham, has revenge from that earlier season 3 point loss to Jackson State in the most recent game they played and is about 50 spots better in the power rankings than Jackson State. But, here is the clincher, in what is expected to be a tight game from start to finish, the better team in Alabama St only shoots about 63% from the line while Jackson State shoots 71% from the line. Plus, when you are laying 3 points that gives you a bit more of a heart attack considering that the total difference between these two this year was 9 points (6 point win by Alabama St. and a 3 point win by Jackson State - so in reality +3). No thanks.