Saturday's NCAA Tournament Games
Villanova got bailed out by refs in first round; they're 3-5 in last eight games, playing St Mary's team that beat Portland/Gonzaga/Richmond in last three games, by 14-19-9 points. Gaels will hurt Villanova inside; vs Richmond, they had 18 offensive boards, outrebounding Spiders 39-16. #2 seeds are 11-17 vs spread in this round the last seven years.
Ohio U ran Georgetown off floor Thursday, shooting 58% from floor, 13 of 23 from arc, but since 1991, #14 seeds are 2-7 vs spread in second round games, with last cover in '97. Favorites are 12-4 vs spread in this bracket the last four years. Tennessee is 6-1 in last seven games, just 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as favorite. Ohio covered 11 of last 12 games.
Old Dominion is terrific on offensive boards; they get highest %age of their points on 2-point shots of any team in US, so a different challenge for Baylor, which is much better on defense now (held Sam Houston to 5-31 from arc in first round). Since 2003, #11 seeds are 1-6 vs spread in this round. Bears will need more from Tweety Carter (2 pts Thursday).
Kentucky made 15-33 from arc Thursday in very easy win; #1 seeds are 11-8-1 vs spread in this round last five years, but just 4-7-1 since '04 if they're single digit favorite. Wildcats beat UNC by hoop in only game vs ACC foe this season. Wake Forest lost five of last seven games; they're 6-3 vs spread as dog this season, survived 20 turnovers in win vs Texas.
BYU won eight of last 10 games; they forced 21 turnovers in double OT win Thursday; #2 seeds are 6-14 vs spread in this round last five years. Kansas State blocked 10 shots in first round win, but BYU makes 41.6% from arc, 3rd-best %age in country, so they're harder to guard than No. Texas. Big 12 faves are 46-31 vs spread in non-league games this season.
Kansas struggled for half with Lehigh, also struggled with Cornell, a team that plays similar style to Northern Iowa; will Jayhawks (ranked 31st in offensive rebounding) outrebound Panthers (#7 on defensive baords)? #1 seeds are 9-4 vs spread as double-digit favorite in this round since '03. UNI won by 3 at Iowa State, their only game vs Big 12 foe this season.
Butler hasn't lost since Dec 22, winning 21 in row; they outscored good UTEP squad 50-26 in second half Thursday, making 13-31 from the arc. Over last six years, 4-5 seeds are 4-4 vs spread when facing 12-13 seed that posted upset in first round (9-12 vs spread since '97). Murray State made just 9-17 from foul line vs Vandy, but made 7-15 behind the arc.
Washington won its last eight games, all away from home; they're much better than usual 11-seed, but 11-seeds are just 1-6 vs spread in second round games since '03. New Mexico star Hobson hurt his left (shooting) wrist Thursday, don't think he will be 100% here. Lobos held Montana star Johnson to 1-12 from floor, but Huskies are more diverse with ball. This is first time ever an 11-seed is favored to beat a 3-seed.
NIT Tournament
Memphis might have more fans than Ole Miss in regional rivalry game in Oxford; Tigers made 10-13 from arc in first half of narrow home win vs St John's Wednesday- they're 9-2 in last 11 games, but lost at home by 7 to SEC's Tennessee, its only game vs SEC foe. Ole Miss won five of last six games; they're 2-0 vs C-USA teams (UTEP by 10, UCF by 28). Ole Miss scored 84 points with only five turnovers in its win Wednesday.
East Regional Day 3 Picks
By DAVID PAYNE
No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (-9.5, 143) vs. No. 9 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
On paper, Wake Forest (20-10, 16-11 ATS) looks like it should be able to play with Kentucky.
That obviously didn’t mean much to oddsmakers, who made the Demon Deacons hefty underdogs in Saturday’s night cap in New Orleans.
The Demon Deacons have three players 6-11 or taller, including 7-foot stiff Chas McFarland. So they’ve at least got the size and depth to bang on Kentucky’s stud big men DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson as well as rapidly improving freshman Daniel Orton.
Wake is also talented enough not to get overwhelmed by the Wildcats’ ridiculous wealth of future professionals.
Demon Deacon sophomore forward Al-Farouq Aminu is a future lottery pick, and point guard Ishmael Smith is one of the best in the ACC. Smith hit the game-winner in Thursday’s overtime win over Texas.
Kentucky (33-2, 18-15 ATS) had a much easier time with East Tennessee State in the first round. Everything was clicking for the Wildcats, who reached triple digits for the third time this season in Thursday’s 29-point rout of ETSU.
Kentucky has a significant coaching edge, with Wake’s Dino Gaudio coaching in only the third NCAA tournament game of his fledgling career.
Prediction: Kentucky 77, Wake Forest 68
No. 3 New Mexico Lobos vs. No. 11 Washington Huskies (-2, 151)
Yes, the Huskies (25-9, 15-18 ATS) were ultra impressive in their first-round win over Marquette. In front of a loud bunch of UW fans, they rallied from 15 down in the second half and got a game-winning bucket from star Quincy Poindexter to advance.
But it’s still somewhat surprising that 12th-seeded Washington opened as the favorite over the third-seeded Lobos, who couldn’t put away Montana in Thursday’s finale.
New Mexico, after all, has won 30 games this season. But who have they really beaten? The Lobos have two wins over a BYU team that needed two overtimes to beat a Florida team that was lucky to get an invite to the tournament.
Washington’s schedule wasn’t exactly loaded with juggernauts, either.
Both teams beat Texas A&M in December. New Mexico topped the Aggies, 80-77. Washington beat A&M, 73-64.
Prediction: Washington 79, New Mexico 71
South Regional Day 3 Picks
By PATRICK GARBIN
No. 10 St. Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (-4.5, 153)
Trailing by eight points with only 4:19 remaining against 15th-seeded Robert Morris, Villanova rallied and survived a scare in Thursday’s opening round, winning 73-70 in overtime. Wildcats coach Jay Wright benched standouts Scottie Reynolds (18.6 ppg, 3.3 apg) and Corey Fisher (13.5 ppg, 4.0 apg), the team’s top two scorers, for the start of the game because of a “minor infraction.”
Reynolds would see plenty of action but was cold from the field, making just 2-of-15 field goals. However, the star guard made 15-of-16 from the charity stripe, including a few clutch ones down the stretch.
While Villanova was disappointing in the tourney’s first round, St. Mary’s was certainly impressive, defeating favored Richmond 80-71. The Gaels’ big man Omar Samhan (21.2 ppg, 11.0 rpg) had 29 points and grabbed 12 rebounds after scoring just 25 in St. Mary’s previous two games combined.
In winning their first NCAA tournament contest since 1959, the Gaels captured their sixth consecutive game (5-1 ATS), including two in a row as an underdog.
Villanova’s victory was just its third in the last eight games. Since the beginning of February, Nova is only 3-9 ATS.
The Wildcats are certainly having troubles, especially on the defensive end, but they are still a potent team. Reynolds will be back in the starting lineup against the Gaels and likely won’t have back-to-back outings of poor shooting.
Remember last year’s opening round? Villanova, a 15-point favorite, trailed 14th-seeded American by double digits before rallying for a win. The Wildcats would win three more games, two as an underdog, on their way to a Final Four.
St. Mary’s should fall victim in another close victory for Villanova.
Final score prediction: Villanova 78, St, Mary’s 73
No. 11 Old Dominion Monarchs vs. No. 3 Baylor Bears (-4, 129.5)
Baylor and Old Dominion face off in the second round in what is perceived to be a tussle between two great defenses. Old Dominion ranks in the nation’s top 20 in scoring defense, 3-point defense and defensive rebounds. Baylor is seventh in the county in field goal percentage defense.
It was the Bears’ defense which led them to a 68-59 victory over Sam Houston State Thursday. The Bearkats, who actually led No. 3-seeded Baylor by one at halftime, shot less than 34 percent from the floor and made just six of 31 from beyond the arc. This was the same Sam Houston State team that scored 90 or more points 11 times this season, including 92 points versus Kentucky.
Baylor guard Tweety Carter (15.2 ppg, 6.0 apg), the Bears’ second-leading scorer, was held to two points but Ekpe Udoh (14.1 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 3.8 blocks) picked up the slack with a team-leading 20 points, 13 rebounds and five assists. The Baylor victory was its first in the NCAAs in 60 years.
Old Dominion’s defense, as usual, was fantastic in a 51-50 opening-round win over Notre Dame. However, as has been the case for most the season, the Monarchs struggled on the offensive end, shooting less than 42 percent from the field, including hitting just 3-of-13 treys.
Since it is very difficult to get points inside on the Bears’ 2-3 zone, Old Dominion will need to score points via 3-pointers and free throws if it is going to beat Baylor. The problem is shooting the three and making free throws are the Monarchs’ main weaknesses, ranking 280th and 298th, respectively, in the two offensive categories of the 347 Division-I teams.
This game’s line is much too low. In what should be a relatively easy Baylor victory, the Bears’ tremendous defensive play will continue while Carter likely bounces back after an off game.
Final score prediction: Baylor 67, Old Dominion 52
Midwest Regional Day 3 Picks
By ADAM THOMPSON
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 9 Northern Iowa Panthers (+11.5, 127)
Northern Iowa (29-4) escaped with a 69-66 minor upset win over UNLV on Ali Farokhmanesh’s 3-pointer in the closing seconds. It was the first NCAA Tournament win for the Panthers in 20 years.
UNLV held Missouri Valley player of the year Adam Koch to 11 points on just 2-of-4 shooting, but Koch and the rest of the Panthers went 20-of-23 from the free-throw line.
“It feels good to do this for this program,” Farokhmanesh told the Des Moines Register. “We’ve come from a long ways.”
While UNI will obviously be looking to pull off a major upset Saturday, the goal of this program since before the tournament started was to get that elusive win.
Kansas (33-2) looked unimpressive against No. 16 Lehigh before the Jayhawks wore down their opponent for a 90-74 first-round win. They shot 65 percent in the second half to pull away.
The game’s most interesting matchup will come in the paint, where Northern Iowa’s 7-footer Jordan Eglseder (11.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 54 percent FG) will bang with Kansas’ 7-footer Cole Aldrich (11.2 ppg, 9.8 rpg (56 percent). Not many teams have attempted to attack Aldrich this season.
Northern Iowa is the kind of team that can put a scare into Kansas: deep, hits 3s, good size. But Kansas has all those attributes, too, and simply has superior weapons.
Prediction: Kansas 65, Northern Iowa 59
No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 14 Ohio Bobcats (+9, 140.5)
Ohio (22-14) pulled off the biggest stunner of the opening day, cruising to a 97-83 win over No. 3 Georgetown.
The Bobcats, who had no chance of matching up with the size of the Hoyas, shot over them, hitting 13-of-23 three-point attempts and were 58 percent overall. The backcourt tandem of Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper befuddled G’town with 32 points and 23 points, respectively.
Ohio has been outscoring teams most of the season, averaging 74.9 ppg. Outscoring an offensive-minded Tennessee team, however, will be tougher than defensive-minded Georgetown.
The Volunteers (26-8) averaged 73.3 ppg but has the ability to play disruptive defense. Wayne Chism and Scott Hopson are constants for Tennessee, but the team is much better when J.P. Prince comes to play. The inconsistent 6-7 senior had 15 points on 5-of-9 shooting on Thursday.
Depth could become a concern for Ohio. Tennessee also goes a solid nine deep, while three Ohio starters played 37 or more minutes against Georgetown and typically plays just seven.
Ohio isn’t going to roll over, but Tennessee is just a better, deeper version of the Bobcats.
Prediction: Tennessee 81, Ohio 74
West Regional Day 3 Picks
By SCOTT COOLEY
Murray State Racers vs. Butler Bulldogs (-4.5, 128)
Butler commanded a slow tempo versus Texas-El Paso and that’s exactly what it will have to do against Murray State, who raced to an upset over Vanderbilt Thursday.
The Bulldogs held UTEP to 59 points and 4-for-18 shooting from beyond the arc and have given up more than 70 points only three times all season. Murray State comes into this game averaging 77.2 ppg for the year.
It’s clear Butler isn’t going to change its style of play, but the Racers were relentless in their offensive attack on Vandy and the team’s momentum after a game-winning shot should carry over into Saturday’s affair.
"That shot was bigger than he could imagine," B.J. Jenkins told reporters. "It wasn't just a game-winning shot. We'll remember this for the rest of our lives."
Murray State is as balanced as they come with five players averaging in double digits and the team shot better than 50 percent from the field during the season.
The Racers also carry the sympathy card after reserve guard Picasso Simmons lost his mother in a car accident Monday. Witnessed by Thursday’s game, this team is playing with an inspired, not heavy, heart.
As long as Murray State doesn’t shoot 52 percent from charity stripe again, Butler’s 21-game winning streak will come to an end.
Prediction: Murray State 66, Butler 63
Brigham Young Cougars vs. Kansas State Wildcats (-4, 154.5)
If Florida doesn’t commit 21 turnovers Thursday, BYU probably isn’t in this matchup. It took the Cougars two overtimes and a pair of last-second Gator misses to advance in the Big Dance.
On the other side, Kansas State and Frank Martin rolled into the NCAA Tournament with a ton of confidence and coasted to an opening-round victory over North Texas, leading by 16-20 points throughout the game.
“We’ll have to score at a pretty good clip (to win),” BYU coach Dave Rose told the media. “[Kansas State is] big, physical and strong,”
It’s clear that the Cougs’ only scoring option in crunch time is Jimmer Fredette. Jonathan Tavernari has an amazingly quick 3-point release but he is streaky and the 26-point outburst from Michael Loyd in the first round was likely an aberration, as he only averaged 4.6 ppg during the season.
Fredette will not get easy layups off hesitation moves, as he did against the young Florida guards, because he will be defended by the more disciplined and talented backcourt of K-State in Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen.
Both teams like to push the pace so this game should see a plethora of points, but Martin’s club will hit some key threes in the end to pull away.
Prediction: Kansas State 83, BYU 75
Saturday's Early Tips
By Judd Hall
Thursday’s action in the NCAA Tournament is being called by some as one of the best days it has ever had. Gamblers that took the underdogs to cover saw them go 10-6 ATS on Day 1 of the tourney. And bettors that backed those pups on the money line watched six of them advance to Saturday’s second round of play. Ohio was the biggest payday for those folks with a 10/1 return in a thrashing of the Hoyas. And you can only imagine the heartbreak of some that were look at 25/1 with Robert Morris, who narrowly fell to the Wildcats as a 15th-seed.
Will we see that tradition continue as we punch the first tickets to the Sweet Sixteen? Let’s look at the first four games of the second round and find out.
St. Mary’s (10) vs. Villanova (2) – 1:05 p.m. EDT
Most sportsbooks have posted the Wildcats as 4 ½-point home favorites with a total of 153. Bettors can back St. Mary’s (27-5 straight up, 22-10 against the spread) for a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).
The Gaels picked up their first win in the Big Dance since 1959 by dropping seventh-seeded Richmond as two-point pups 80-71 last Thursday. Omar Samhan proved why teams need to focus on him in their game plans after unloading for 29 points and 12 rebounds against the A-10 champion Spiders. Seven of those boards for Samhan can off of the offensive glass; Richmond had just three offensive rebounds for the whole team.
That win improved St. Mary’s record to 3-2 SU and ATS when listed as a single-digit underdog this season. The ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in that stretch to boot.
The Gaels have also moved up to 5-3 SU and ATS in games against teams that are in the NCAA field. And Thursday’s win pushed the ‘over’ to 4-3 in those spots.
Out of all the teams that advanced to the second round of play, Villanova (26-7 SU, 18-14 ATS) was the one that was gifted the entry. The Wildcats were outmatched by 15th seed Robert Morris for much of their game. Still, ‘Nova moved onto weekend play with a 73-70 overtime win over the Colonials as a 19-point favorite.
The Wildcats were staring a 44-36 deficit square in the face with 9:35 left in the second half. That’s when they starting seeing themselves toeing up to the charity stripe 15 times in regulation, making 13 of them to help force the extra session. The free throw line is where this game was won for Villanova as they were outshot in the field by the Colonials (40%-35%), but made 31-of-40 free throws to get the win. Scottie Reynolds made just two of his 15 field goal attempts after getting benched for much of the first half by Head Coach Jay Wright. Yet Reynolds was still able to rack up 20 points by hitting 15-of-16 free throw attempts.
Villanova has seemingly failed to show up over the last two months, going 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS since Feb. 6. The ‘over’ only holds a slight 5-4-1 edge, so you can’t even back that when you want to play totals.
The ‘Cats are just 6-5 SU and ATS in 11 games this season as single-digit favorites with the ‘over’ of 6-4-1 in that time frame. In the last four games in this situation, ‘Nova is 1-3 SU and ATS with the ‘under’ going 2-1-1.
Baylor or Old Dominion will await the survivor of this contest.
Murray State (13) vs. Butler (5) – 3:20 p.m. EDT
The majority of betting shops have installed Butler (29-4 SU, 14-19 ATS) as a 4 ½-point “chalk” with a total of 128. You can back the Racers at plus-170 (risk $100 to win $170).
Murray State (31-4 SU, 15-14-1 ATS) was a popular pick by gamblers and bracket makers alike to drop the Commodores in the first round. And sure enough, the Racers took down Vanderbilt as 2 ½-point pups in a buzzer-beating 66-65 win on Thursday. Danero Thomas drained the game-winner as time expired to cap off a 11 point, six rebound performance. Isacc Miles paced MSU with 17 points and six boards of his own.
There is a good reason whey the gambling public was on the Racers. This is a team that has won 22 of their last 23 contests, covering the spread in 12 of those triumphs. The ‘under’ is on a strong 6-1 run for totals players right now.
MSU has only been a single-digit pup twice this year, going 1-1 SU and ATS. And that win came just on Thursday against the Commodores.
Butler was figured to succumb to the favorite sleeper of many people, the Miners. And at halftime, UTEP was in control of the game with a 33-27 lead at halftime. Then the Bulldogs took control of the game with a 22-4 run to open the second half to earn a 77-59 win as 2 ½-point favorites. Shelvin Mack led the comeback with 25 points, including going 7-for-9 from three-point land.
The Bulldogs have enjoyed plenty of success as single-digit faves this season, evidenced by a 13-0 SU and 8-5 ATS mark. They’ve also seen the ‘over’ go 10-3 in these matches.
Ohio (14) vs. Tennessee (6) – 3:35 p.m. EDT
Most sportsbooks have installed the Volunteers as eight-point favorites with a total of 138.
Ohio (22-14 SU, 19-12 ATS) wasn’t given much of a chance to make any noise as a 14-point pup to the Hoyas in the first round. After all, this was a team that went into the MAC Tournament as the No. 9 seed. That didn’t stop the Bobcats from winning their conference’s automatic bid. And they parlayed that into an impressive 97-83 win over Georgetown in the first round. The ‘Cats were never in danger of losing this game, only seeing their lead cut to seven-points in the second half. Armon Bassett came away with 32 points, while D.J. Cooper posted 23 points and eight assists in the upset.
Even though the Bobcats’ season hasn’t been as great as a whole, the end of it has been extremely strong. Ohio has gone 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS in its past 18 contests. The ‘under’ has gone 13-11 for the year. However, the ‘over’ has gone on a 6-1 run in OU’s last seven tilts.
Tennessee (26-8 SU, 13-16-2 ATS) was one of the rare favored clubs that didn’t falter on Thursday night with a 62-59 win over the Aztecs as a three-point “chalk.” J.P. Prince led the Vols to the win with 15 points and six boards. The “push” in this game was a welcome change for backers of the Volunteers since they are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 fixtures.
The Vols are 8-2 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in their 10 games this season as single-digit favorites with the ‘under’ going 6-2-1.
Ohio is 3-7 SU and 6-4 when posted as a single-digit ‘dog with the ‘under’ going 6-4 this season.
Northern Iowa (9) vs. Kansas (1) – 5:40 p.m. EDT
LVSC has made Kansas (33-2 SU, 14-17-1 ATS) an 11 ½-point favorite with a total of 128. Bettors can invest in the Panthers for a plus-700 return (risk $100 to win $700).
Northern Iowa (29-4 SU, 21-10-1 ATS) got all they could handle and more out of the Running Rebels in a 69-66 win as a one-point favorite last Thursday. Ali Farokhmanesh scored the game-winning three-pointer with 4.9 seconds remaining to cap off his 17-point performance. It’s impressive to think that UNI turned the ball over 16 times.
The Panthers are riding high with a 13-2 SU and 9-5-1 ATS record in their past 15 contests leading into the second round. The ‘under’ is 10-5, but the ‘over’ has cashed in their last two games.
Kansas was expected to roll over the Mountain Hawks as a 25-point “chalk,” but got plenty of pushback with a 90-74 win. Marcus Morris put in 26 points and 10 rebounds for the winning effort. Still, this was a game that saw the Jayhawks work out some kinks. They had to fight back to tie the game at 12-all early in the first half and only led by six at halftime.
The Jayhawks failed to cover the number, which was the first time in two games they didn’t get an ATS win. For a team that has been lousy at nailing the spread, they have been good as of late with a 4-2 ATS mark in its last six tests.
KU fans should take heart in knowing that their team is 22-0 SU when made a double-digit favorite. Gamblers backing them, on the other hand, also know that they are just 8-13-1 ATS in those matches. That includes a recent an 0-7 ATS run in this situation. The ‘under’ has gone 12-8 when a total was posted.
vegasinsider.com
Saturday's Late Tips
By Brian Edwards
**Old Dominion vs. Baylor**
This second-round showdown between the third-seeded Bears and the 11th-seeded Monarchs will take place in New Orleans. Tip-off on CBS is scheduled for 5:45 p.m. Eastern.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Baylor (26-7 straight up, 16-10 against the spread) as a five-point favorite with a total of 130. As of early Friday night, most betting shops had the Bears favored by four with the total as low as 127 ½ (Las Vegas Hilton) and as high as 129 ½ (Stratosphere). Bettors can take the champs from out of the Colonial Athletic Association to win outright for a plus-165 payout (risk $100 to win $165).
Old Dominion (27-8 SU, 14-17 ATS) advanced to the second round by rallying to knock off sixth-seeded Notre Dame by a 51-50 count Thursday afternoon. Trailing 28-22 at halftime, the Monarchs took charge at the defensive end, limiting the Irish to 22 points in the second half. They collected the outright victory as a short 2 ½-point underdog, cashing money-line tickets as generous a plus-130. Frank Hassell scored 15 points and pulled down nine rebounds for the winners, who held Luke Harangody to just four points. Keyon Carter 11 points, six boards, three steals and one blocked shot.
Baylor got all it wanted from 14th-seeded Sam Houston St. in their first-round matchup Thursday. The Bears pulled away late for a 68-59 victory, but the Bearkats still hooked up their backers, albeit barely, as 9 ½-point underdogs. Ekpe Udoh was the difference for the Bears, producing 20 points, 13 rebounds, five assists, two steals and a pair of blocked shots.
Scott Drew’s squad has been a single-digit favorite 15 times, compiling an 8-7 spread record in those situations.
ODU owns a 2-6 record both SU and ATS in eight underdog spots. Both wins came over Big East foes, Georgetown and Notre Dame.
The ‘under’ is 17-13 overall for ODU, but the ‘over’ has cashed in seven of its last nine outings.
The ‘over’ has cashed tickets at a lucrative 17-9 overall clip for Baylor this season.
The winner will advance to the South Region semifinals in Houston to play the Saint Mary’s-Villanova winner.
**Washington vs. New Mexico**
-LVSC opened this 3/11 matchup as a pick ‘em with a total of 150. However, due to the fact that Lobos’ star Darington Hobson was considered “questionable” as of early Friday night, most books had the game circled (low limits, no parlays) with Washington (25-9 SU, 15-18 ATS) listed as the 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 150.
New Mexico (30-4 SU, 18-13-2 ATS) advanced past 14th-seeded Montana on Thursday night, but not before getting all it wanted from the Grizzlies. In the end, the Lobos captured a 62-57 win but they failed to cover the spread for the fourth straight time as 8 ½-point favorites. Roman Martinez was the catalyst for UNM, scoring a team-high 19 points while also grabbing six rebounds and dishing out four assists. Hobson finished with 11 points, 11 boards, six assists and a pair of steals.
Hobson, who leads UNM in scoring, rebounding and assists, has a sore and tender left wrist after a hard fall against Montana. Nevertheless, he is expected to play and bettors should look for him to be upgraded to “probable” in the hours leading up to tip time.
Lorenzo Romar’s team has caught fire at the right time. UW has won eight in a row, posting a 7-1 spread record in the process. Despite trailing for most of the second half in their first-round game vs. Marquette, the Huskies rallied and won an 80-78 decision as one-point underdogs. Quincy Pondexter, who finished with 18 points and 11 rebounds, scored the game-winning bucket with 1.7 second remaining. Isaiah Thomas had a team-high 19 points and eight assists.
Steve Alford’s squad has played 12 games against teams in the NCAA field, winning nine of those contests. The Lobos have played one team from out of the Pac-10 this year, beating California 86-78 as 5 ½-point home favorites.
CBS will have television coverage from San Jose 30 minutes after the conclusion of Butler-Murray St. The winner will face the West Virginia-Missouri winner in next week’s Sweet 16 round at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse.
**Kentucky vs. Wake Forest**
-LVSC opened top-seeded Kentucky (33-2 SU, 18-15 ATS) as a nine-point favorite with a total of 147. As of early Friday night, most books had UK at nine still with the total adjusted to 143. Dino Gaudio’s team can be had to win outright for a generous plus-375 payout (risk $100 to win $375).
Wake Forest (20-10 SU, 16-11 ATS) got past Texas 81-80 Thursday night in overtime, as senior guard Ish Smith came through in the clutch with a game-winning jumper from about 15 feet out. The Demon Deacons won outright as 5 ½-point underdogs, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-200 return (risk $100 to win $200). Smith finished with 19 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists.
Wake Forest owns a 7-3 spread record in 10 games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are 9-5 versus the number in 14 games as single-digit ‘chalk.’
John Calipari’s squad was perhaps the most dominant team of the first round, destroying East Tennessee St. 101-70 as an 18 ½-point favorite. Freshman guard Eric Bledsoe stole the show, burying 8-of-9 attempts from 3-point range en route to a game-high 29 points. Patrick Patterson added 22 points, while John Wall had 17 points and 11 assists.
The point-guard matchup will be interesting to watch between Wall and Smith. These players are the nation’s two fastest off the dribble, so it’ll be interesting to see who can get into the lane to finish and distribute most often.
The ‘over’ is on a 4-2 run for UK in its last six games and is 17-15 overall.
The ‘under’ is 15-11 overall for Wake Forest.
**BYU vs. Kansas State**
LVSC opened second-seeded Kansas St. (27-7 SU, 19-9-1 ATS) as a 4 1/2–point favorite with a total of 154. As of Friday night, most spots had the Wildcats at either four or 4 ½ with the total at 154 ½. Gamblers can take the Cougars on the money line at a plus-170 price.
BYU (30-5 SU, 19-13 ATS) won its first NCAA Tournament game since 1993 Thursday, taking out Florida 99-92 in double overtime. The Cougars hooked their backers up with a fortunate cover as 5 ½-point favorites. Jimmer Fredette scored a game-high 37 points, but reserve guard Michael Loyd was the difference with his 26 points off the bench. Loyd was money at the charity stripe to put the game away and give BYU backers the winner.
Frank Martin’s team drilled North Texas 82-62 as a 15-point favorite in Thursday’s first-round game. Denis Clemente scored 17 points and dished out six assists, while Curtis Kelly and Jacob Pullen chipped in with 15 points apiece.
BYU has been an underdog five times, posting an abysmal 1-4 record both SU and ATS. The Cougars’ lone win and cover came at UTEP.
Kansas St. has thrived as a single-digit favorite, cashing tickets at an incredible 12-3-1 clip in 16 such spots.
The ‘over’ is 15-12-1 overall for K-St., 16-14 overall for BYU.
The winner advances to the West Region semifinals in Salt Lake City to face the Pitt-Xavier survivor.
vegasinsider.com.
Tips and Trends
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Baylor Bears
Monarchs: If any team left in the tournament knows who they are, it's Old Dominion. The Monarchs stay true to what they do best, and that's play defense. Old Dominion was able to advance to the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament thanks to some impressive team defense against Notre Dame. Notre Dame only scored 50 PTS, and they aren't the only team to struggle scoring against the Monarchs. This defense only allows 56 PPG this entire season, as they've held 19 opponents under 60 PTS this season. Combine that defensive pressure with their rebounding prowess, and that's how you end up as one of the best mid majors in College Basketball. Old Dominion is 27-8 SU overall, and champions of the CAA conference with a 15-3 SU league record. The Monarchs are 12-8 SU and 9-10 ATS away from home this season. Old Dominion is only 2-6 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Monarchs are also only 3-7 ATS in non conference games this season. F Gerald Lee is the only Monarchs player averaging double figures in PTS this season with 14.4 PPG. Lee shoots better than 54% from the field and grabs 4.9 RPG this season for Old Dominion.
Old Dominions is 3-14 ATS last 17 neutral site games.
Under is 4-0 last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 60
Bears (-4, O/U 129): Baylor is in uncharted waters today, as it's been 60 years since they've won a game in the NCAA Tournament. It's been a banner year for Baylor, and they will look to keep it going today as the listed favorite. Baylor is 26-7 SU overall this season, winners of 6 of their past 7 games SU. The Bears finished 11-5 SU in the Big 12 conference, good enough for 2nd place in a very competitive league. Besides standing at 26-7 SU overall, the Bears are also a profitable 16-10 ATS this season. Baylor is 11-6 SU and 10-7 ATS away from home this season. The Bears are 8-7 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Baylor has played their best basketball ATS wise against their best competition, going 14-9 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. 3 different Bears players average at least 14 PPG this season, led by G LaceDarius Dunn. Dunn averages 19.2 PPG and 4.8 RPG this season for Baylor. Baylor has scored 70 or more PTS in 8 of their past 9 games entering tonight.
Baylor is 6-1 ATS last 7 non conference games.
Under is 5-1 last 6 non conference games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 63 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Demon Deacons: Wake Forest put on a rebounding show against Texas in their 1st round matchup in the NCAA Tournament. Wake Forest out-rebounded a physical Texas team by 25 rebounds. The Demon Deacons had 20 offensive rebounds, as they simply overwhelmed Texas. It had been 5 years since Wake Forest had won in the NCAA Tournament prior to their latest game. The Demon Deacons are 20-10 SU and 16-11 ATS this season. Wake has an overall losing record when playing away from home, going 7-8 SU this season. Wake is also 9-6 ATS in road contests this season. The Demon Deacons are 7-3 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Wake has also had some betting success in non conference games this season, going 6-4 ATS in those games. Wake has had trouble shooting the ball all season long, but especially of late. Despite averaging 73.2 PPG for the entire season, Wake has scored 62 PTS or fewer in 3 of their past 6 contests. F Al-Farouq Aminu averages a double double this season, leading Wake in both categories with 15.8 PPG and 10.8 RPG. G Ishmael Smith averages 13.5 PPG and a team high 6 APG this season for the Demon Deacons.
Wake Forest is 4-0 ATS last 4 games as an underdog.
Under is 8-2 last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Key Injuries - G Konner Tucker (personal) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 63
Wildcats (-9, O/U 143.5): Certainly Kentucky is going to get tested today compared to their opening round 30 point blowout today right? Kentucky has been so good all season long, as they are 33-2 SU overall. Kentucky entered the NCAA Tournament as champions of the SEC, where they finished with a SU record of 14-2. Kentucky dominated their 1st Round opponent, as they were up by as many as 40 PTS at one point in the 2nd half. The Wildcats had 27 assists on it's 31 baskets in their last game, a sign of a very efficient offense. Kentucky averages 79.6 PPG this season, with much thanks going to 2 freshman. G John Wall led the team with 16.9 PPG and 6.5 APG this season. F DeMarcus Cousins averaged 15 PPG and a team high 10.1 RPG this season for the Wildcats. Cousins has 20 double doubles this season, the most for a Wildcat player since 1973. The Wildcats are a perfect 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS in neutral court settings this season. Kentucky is 9-5 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Wildcats have scored at least 73 PTS in each of their past 6 games entering tonight.
Kentucky is 4-0 ATS last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Under is 7-3 last 10 neutral site games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 82 (Side of the Day)