(5) Butler (31-4, 15-20 ATS) vs. (2) Kansas State (29-7, 20-9-2 ATS)
Butler stunned No. 1 seed Syracuse 63-59 as a six-point underdog in a Sweet 16 matchup Thursday, extending the longest winning streak in the nation to 23 in a row (11-12 ATS). The Bulldogs have been stout defensively of late, holding 10 of their last 11 opponents under 60 points, including the last five in a row. In those five outings, they’ve outscored foes by about a dozen ppg, averaging 66.4 and allowing 54.8.
Kansas State won a double-overtime screamer Thursday night, holding off Xavier 101-96 but getting a push as a five-point favorite. The Wildcats are 5-1 (4-1-1 ATS) in their last six starts, and the lone loss came to top-ranked Kansas in the Big 12 tournament title game. K-State has been a scoring machine, eclipsing the 80-point mark in nine of its last 12 games overall, including six of the last seven.
Butler, in its fourth straight Tournament and 10th overall, has reached the Elite Eight for the first time in school history, having lost three previous times in the third round. Kansas State, in its 24th Big Dance, last got this far in 1988, losing to eventual champ Kansas 71-58 in the regional final. The Wildcats haven’t reached the Final Four since 1964.
Butler is 4-3 (3-4 ATS) at neutral venues this year, outscoring teams by just over a point per game (67.1-65.9) while getting outshot 45.4 percent to 39.9 percent. K-State is 8-2 (6-3-1 ATS) on neutral floors, averaging 82.0 ppg and giving up 74.6 ppg. The SU winner has gone 8-0-1 ATS in the Wildcats’ last nine neutral-site starts.
Going back to last year, the Bulldogs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 at neutral venues, and they’re also in pointspread ruts of 2-4 as a neutral-site pup and 2-10 when coming off a spread-cover. Still, they sport positive ATS streaks of 22-7 as a ‘dog regardless of venue, 5-2 on Saturday and 5-2 against winning teams.
The Wildcats are on ATS tears of 19-7-2 overall, 8-0-1 outside the Big 12, 16-4-2 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 16-5-2 as a favorite, 6-1-1 at neutral sites and 6-0-1 as a neutral-site chalk. In addition, K-State has cashed in four straight games against the Horizon League.
Butler is on “under” surges of 7-1 overall (2-0 last two), 5-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 4-1 outside the Horizon League and 4-1 after a spread-cover, though the total has gone high in nine of the Bulldogs’ last 12 Saturday tilts and 11 of their last 15 at neutral sites.
Kansas State’s marathon contest with Xavier went way over the 150-point price, but the Wildcats remain on “under” streaks of 7-3 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 5-2-1 after a SU win and 4-1-1 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS STATE
(2) West Virginia (30-6, 16-19 ATS) vs. (1) Kentucky (35-2, 20-15 ATS)
The Mountaineers made do without starting point guard Darryl Bryant (broken foot), beating Washington 69-56 Thursday as a 4½-point chalk, moving to 3-0 SU and ATS in this year’s Dance. West Virginia, the Big East tournament champs, has won nine in a row and 11 of its last 12 (7-5 ATS), and the Mountaineers have been getting it done with defense, holding their last six opponents under 60 points – all on neutral courts. During this stretch, they’re giving up an average of just 54.2 ppg while putting up 63.5 ppg.
Kentucky withstood an early burst and a second-half surge by No. 12 seed Cornell, rolling to a 62-45 victory as an eight-point favorite Thursday to match West Virginia in staying perfect SU and ATS in the Tournament, with the three wins coming by an average of 25.3 ppg. The Wildcats have won 16 of their last 17 (11-6 ATS), and though they had a modest offensive output against the Big Red on Thursday, they still average 79.6 ppg on 48.3 percent shooting, while allowing 64.7 ppg. Kentucky also still fields the nation’s third-stingiest field-goal defense (37.8 percent).
West Virginia, which received its highest seed in school history this year, is in its third straight Tournament and fifth in the last six years, and it got to the regional final this time around, after losing its last two third-round contests. The last time the Mountaineers reached the Elite Eight was in 2005, when they fell to Louisville 93-85. Their only Final Four appearance came in 1959.
Kentucky, meanwhile, has a huge Big Dance resume, playing in this event for the 51st time, advancing to 13 Final Fours and winning seven national championships. The Wildcats are 103-45 SU in the Tournament and are in their 32nd Elite Eight, having last reached this point in 2005, when they lost to Michigan State 94-88. Kentucky’s last trip to the Final Four was in 1998, when it won its last national championship.
These teams squared off in November 2005 and November 2008, both times on neutral floors. The ‘Cats went 2-0 SU and ATS, winning both by double digits: 80-66 as a one-point chalk in Kansas City in 2005 and a 54-43 as an eight-point underdog in Las Vegas in 2008.
The Mountaineers have won all 10 of their neutral-site contests this year (5-5 ATS), prevailing by an average of about 11 ppg (69.1-57.9) and outshooting foes 43.0 percent to 37.8 percent. Kentucky is 8-0 (5-3 ATS) on neutral floors, prevailing by an average of 16.3 ppg (76.0-59.7) and outshooting opponents 48.8 percent to 35.3 percent.
The Mountaineers are on ATS rolls of 11-2-1 in the Big Dance, 6-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 4-0 outside the Big East. Likewise, the Wildcats are on ATS upswings of 6-2 in the Tournament, 6-0 as a Tourney chalk, 6-1 in non-conference play (5-0 last five), 7-1 on Saturday, 13-3-1 against the Big East and 4-1 against winning teams. That said, John Calipari’s troops are also 9-17 ATS in their last 26 starts coming off a spread-cover.
The Mountaineers are on a stream of “under” streaks, including 9-2 overall (7-0 last seven), 7-0 on neutral floors, 6-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 4-1 in non-conference play and 20-7 after a spread-cover. Kentucky is on “over” stretches of 4-2 overall, 7-2 in non-conference action, 5-2 in the Tournament (4-1 last four) and 13-6 as a tourney chalk, though the under has hit in four of the Wildcats’ last five Saturday starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
West Regional Elite Eight Game Analysis and Pick
By SCOTT COOLEY
Butler Bulldogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats (-4, 135)
Even when trailing Syrcause, 54-50, with just over three minutes left in the game, Butler did not divert from its gameplan.
That gameplan – a suffocating man-to-man defense and methodical offense – has been effective in the Bulldogs first three games of the NCAA tournament
"We're not going to say we have the best athletes in the country, but we've got a system and we have to be crisp to execute it," forward Matt Howard said. "We're not going to beat you one-one-one. We play for each other.”
Butler only allowed three opponents this season to score more than 70 points and all three opponents the Bulldogs have faced in the tournament haven’t eclipse the 60-point barrier. Those were prolific offensive teams that averaged 80.9 (Syracuse), 76.5 (Murray State) and 75.3 (UTEP) points per game during the regular season.
With Butler grinding down the shot clock, patiently waiting for the optimal pass or shot, it’s no coincidence the team has played to the under in two straight and nine of its last 11. In those last 11 games, only one team was able to crack 60 points.
Kansas State is a physical team that likes to create turnovers and push the ball in transition off of those miscues. But the Wildcats are in jeopardy of having tired legs after playing a double overtime game against Xavier and having less than 48 hours to prepare for this Elite Eight matchup.
Point guard Denis Clemente played all 48 minutes of K-State’s Sweet 16 game while Jacob Pullen and Curtis Kelly both logged at least 40 minutes. Frank Martin’s playing rotation does roll nine deep, but he planned on giving the team a light practice Friday afternoon.
"We can't get after these guys [on Friday]," Martin said. "We have to coach them through their minds."
Clemente and Pullen have averaged 46 points a game in this tournament but you get the feeling if both somehow have an off night, K-State is going down.
This game is sure to be played at slower pace than what the Wildcats would prefer. The total has already been bet down from an opener of 140 to as low as 135 now.
Butler will be eager to advance to Indianapolis where it would play in front of a home crowd. Expect this to be a tight one, but the battle-tested team will prevail in the end.
Prediction: Kansas State 65, Butler 63
East Regional Elite Eight Game Analysis and Pick
By DAVID PAYNE
No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (-3.5, 133.5) vs. No. 2 West Virginia Mountaineers
Fact or fiction: West Virginia would be favored over every other team left in the tournament, except Kentucky.
If you say fact, then tonight’s East regional final in Syracuse is technically a pseudo-national title game. If you say fiction, well, there are a lot of folks out there that would disagree with you.
Either way, it’s a mammoth game between two exceptional teams.
Kentucky has yet to be tested in the tournament and is considered the favorite to win the whole shebang. But not everyone’s ready to concede the title to John Calipari’s Wildcats, including Cornell coach Steve Donahue.
“I think there’s a lot of positives about Kentucky,” Donahue said after losing by 17 to the ‘Cats on Thursday. “My concern is that I don’t necessarily think for 40 minutes that they may be able to handle this against a team like us that’s a little longer and athletic with experience. Maybe the next game. West Virginia is terrific.”
The youth card is always the first to be played by folks looking to knock Kentucky. They do start three freshmen, with a fourth the first to come off the bench so it’s a valid concern. But those four freshmen – John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe and Daniel Orton – are future NBA lottery picks. Would you trade NBA talent for experience?
West Virginia isn’t quite as loaded as Kentucky, but the Mountaineers are certainly not void of NBA talent. Senior Da’Sean Butler and sophomore Devin Ebanks both have futures in the Association.
But where West Virginia doesn’t match up well with Kentucky is the size of their frontline.
“Quite frankly, people with size bother us, because we're not that big,” West Virginia coach Bob Huggins said before the Big East Championship Game against Greg Monroe and Georgetown.
Monroe and the Hoyas were big, but Kentucky, featuring Cousins (6-11), Orton (6-10) and Patrick Patterson (6-9) are gigantic.
Ebanks (6-9) is the Mountaineers’ tallest player. That hasn’t hindered West Virginia on the backboards, though. They thrive off of offensive rebounds (19 against Washington), but if they don’t get that kind output against Kentucky, where will their points come from?
The Mountaineers are also banged-up. They’ll be without starting point guard Darryl Bryant for a second straight game, and Butler injured his shooting hand in Thursday’s win over Washington. Butler’s hand was wrapped in ice after the game, but the senior says he’ll be ready to go against Kentucky.
Even with the injury concerns, there are plenty of believers in the Mountaineers. The line opened at most books at Kentucky -4, but has been bet down to -3.5 at some shops.
Prediction: Kentucky 67, West Virginia 65
West Region Final
By Judd Hall
It’s taken 65 teams and six days worth of non-stop college hoops, but we’re finally ready to find out who will making the pilgrimage to Indianapolis for the national semifinals. The first ticket to the Final Four gets punched in the West Region final as the Bulldogs and Wildcats face off on CBS at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
Butler (31-4 straight up, 15-20 against the spread) found itself coming into this tourney with most experts making an early exit. Brad Stevens’ club instead found itself overpowering the Miners in the first round (77-59) and survived against the Racers (54-52) to make the regional semifinals.
In their Sweet Sixteen showdown with top-seeded Syracuse, the Bulldogs found themselves being outshot (40%-44%), having a worse night from three-point land (37%-25%) and out rebounded (33-27). Seeing stats like that make you believe that the Orange would have ran away with the win. That wasn’t the case as Butler came up with 13 steals that, along with five other turnovers, helped them come away with a 63-59 win to easily cash as a six-point underdog.
Gordon Hayward paced Butler with his 17 points and five rebounds, while Shelvin Mack put in 14 points and got six boards of his own. Ronald Nored only scored seven points, but proved to be the biggest thief in Bulldog Blue with a team-high five steals.
It would be understandable if Kansas State (29-7 SU, 20-9-2 ATS) have nothing but fumes left in its tank after a thrilling 101-96 double-overtime win over the Musketeers last Thursday night, but still failed to cover as a 5 ½-point “chalk.”
You could take your pick of stars in the Wildcats’ fantastic win over Xavier. Denis Clemente had 25 points and Curtis Kelly dropped in with 21 points and eight rebounds. When it came to making the clutch shots, look no further than Jacob Pullen. K-State’s junior guard scored a team-high 28 points, but 10 of them came in the extra sessions. If you want to magnify it even more, Pullen nailed two three-pointers in the second overtime: one put the ‘Cats up 94-93 with 71 seconds remaining and the second gave them a 97-94 advantage with 35 seconds.
Kansas State’s Frank Martin (who couldn’t be confused for Guy Smiley by anyone) summed this contest up as well as you could. “I expected it to be a hard-fought game. I didn’t expect it to be like this, but they were phenomenal. And our guys were pretty good, too.”
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened this game up late Thursday night with the Wildcats as three-point favorites with a total of 135. As of Friday afternoon, the total has stayed the same with K-State moving up to a four-point fave. Gamblers looking to take Butler to play for a national championship in its own backyard can do so for a plus-165 return (risk $100 to win $165).
If we’re looking at the stat sheets between the Bulldogs and ‘Cats from Thursday night, the most glaring number is depth. Butler rode its starting five for no fewer than Hayward’s 31 minutes on the court. Kansas State, on the other hand, had six players play at least 20 minutes against the Muskies on Thursday evening. I will grant you that it’s easier to have numbers like that when you’re playing a pair of extra sessions.
This depth issue could come into play if this is a tense battle…especially when you consider that K-State can runs about 10 deep, legitimately.
I can harp on how thin the Bulldogs are on their roster, but this team knows how to win. Butler has won 23 straight games outright, covering the spread in 11 of those games. The ‘under’ was the right side to take when it came to totals during this streak as it has gone 13-9.
Butler did get the win last night as an underdog, but they are still just 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in the six total times they were in that role this season. The Wildcats have gone 16-1 SU and 13-3-1 ATS when listed as single-digit favorites with the ‘over’ going 9-7.
Kansas State has seen the ‘over’ go 16-13-1 this season. However, the ‘under’ is 6-4 in its last 10 games this season.
The Bulldogs have more than held their own when taking on the power conferences in college basketball (ACC, Big Ten, Big XII, Big East, Pac-10, SEC). Since 2007, Butler has gone 15-7 SU and 14-7-1 ATS against teams out of those leagues. The ‘over’ went 12-10 in those contests as well.
The last two favorites in the West Region final won and covered their games. Over the last 10 years, however, the faves are just 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS with the ‘over’ going 7-3.
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East Region finals
By Brian Edwards
While the 2010 NCAA Tournament has featured upsets galore, form has held in the East Region where top-seeded Kentucky will square off against No. 2 seed West Virginia in Saturday’s Elite Eight showdown at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, NY. Tip-off is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Kentucky (35-2 straight up, 20-15 against the spread) as a 3 ½-point favorite with the total 136 on the send-out. As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Wildcats favored by four with a total of 133 ½. Gamblers can play the Mountaineers on the money line for a plus-170 return at Sportsbook.com (risk $100 to win $170).
John Calipari’s team advanced to the Elite Eight by trouncing Cornell 62-45 as an 8 ½-point favorite. The 107 combined points resulted in an easy winner for ‘under’ backers who saw the total close at 146.
DeMarcus Cousins was the catalyst, scoring a team-high 16 points to go with seven rebounds and four steals. Eric Bledsoe was also in double figures with 12 points, while John Wall had eight points, eight assists, seven rebounds and a pair of steals. Patrick Patterson finished with nine points, 12 rebounds and three blocked shots.
The Big Red raced out to a 10-2 lead thanks to the playmaking of Louis Dale, who closed out his collegiate career by scoring a game-high 17 points. However, Kentucky answered the 10-2 deficit by erupting for a 30-6 run for the rest of the first half.
Steve Donahue’s team refused to fold, though. In fact, Cornell got to within six at 40-34 on a 3-pointer by Dale late in the second half. But the Big Red would get no closer.
The ‘Cats are searching for their first Final Four appearance since 1998, the longest drought in the program’s storied history. And that’s why UK hired Calipari, who has taken a pair of school to the Final Four.
Then again, has he?
We all know UMass and Memphis made it to the national semifinals on Cal’s watch, but the record books say differently. Both of those schools were stripped of those victories because Marcus Camby was being paid by an agent while playing for the Minutemen, and Derrick Rose had someone else take his standardized test that got him eligible to play for the Tigers.
Although the Teflon John came out clean in both incidents, UMass and Memphis were both placed on probation. But in both instances, Calipari moved on to greener pastures.
This time he went to arguably the best program in America. With a pair of guaranteed one-and-doners in Cousins and Wall, UK appears to be back at the top of the college basketball mountain – for now.
West Virginia (30-6 SU, 16-19 ATS) can change that tonight. The ‘Neers are trying to get third-year head coach Bob Huggins back to the Final Four for the first time since he took Cincinnati in 1992, only to lose to a freshman-laden squad in Michigan. They sent 11th-seeded Washington packing with Thursday’s 72-59 win as a 4 ½-point favorite.
Kevin Jones scored 18 points and grabbed eight rebounds against the Huskies, who led WVU 29-27 at intermission. Huggins’ bunch took control early in the second half, outscoring Washington 42-27 the rest of the way. The Mountaineers hooked up their backers for second-half bets as 4 ½-point favorites.
Da’Sean Butler scored 14 points and grabbed seven rebounds, while Devin Ebanks tallied 12 points, seven boards and five assists. WVU limited Huskies’ start Quincy Pondexter to just seven points, including none in the first half.
UK is 11-5 ATS in 16 games as a single-digit favorite. Meanwhile, West Va. has compiled a 1-1 record both SU and ATS in a pair of underdog situations. The ‘Neers won in overtime at Villanova as three-point puppies, taking the 68-66 decision in the regular-season finale for both squads. They lost 77-62 at Purdue as 4 ½-point ‘dogs.
The ‘under’ has cashed in seven consecutive games for WVU and is 19-14 overall. On the flip side, the ‘Cats have watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 in their last four games, 18-16 overall.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
For first-half wagers, UK is a two-point favorite with a total of 61 ½.
Filling in for starting point guard Darryl ‘Truck’ Bryant, Joe Mazzulla played 25 minutes against Washington. He was an abysmal 1-for-8 from the field and 1-for-3 at the charity stripe. Mazzulla also committed four turnovers, but he did have four assists and three steals.
If Reggie Jackson is the Mr. October of baseball, Tom Izzo has to be the Mr. March of college basketball coaches. Great halftime adjustments last night, sparking Michigan St. to a 59-52 win over No. Iowa after the Panthers led 29-22 at intermission.
Tennessee is in the Elite Eight for the first time in school history after beating Ohio St. 76-73 as a 4 1/2-point underdog. Bettors backing UT on the money line collected a plus-180 payout (paid $180 on $100 wagers). Wayne Chism dominated in the lane with 22 points and 11 rebounds, while J.P. Prince finished 14 points, six assists and one blocked shot. The block came on Evan Turner's potential game-tying 3-point attempt that would've beaten the buzzer.
Great no-call on Prince's block of Turner's last-gasp attempt. Turner is a great player, wo had a game-high 31 points, but I lost a tad bit of respect for him in complaining about a no-call on Prince's block that replays clearly showed was all ball.
LVSC opened Tennessee as a two-point favorite vs. Michigan St. in Sunday’s Elite Eight matchup at 2:20 p.m. Eastern. The total was 135 on the send-out. Izzo owns a 5-1 career record in six previous Elite Eight games. If the Spartans beat UT, they will be going to the Final Four for the sixth time in 12 years.
LVSC opened Duke as a four-point ‘chalk’ for Sunday’s South Region final in Houston vs. Baylor. The total opened at 144.
Updated future odds per LVSC
Kentucky 2/1
Duke and K-St. 9/2
West Virginia 5/1
Tennessee 8/1
Baylor and Butler 10/1
Michigan St. 14/1
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