NCAAB News and Notes Saturday 4/3

What Bettors Need To Know: West Virginia vs. Duke
By Ricky Dimon

The other Butler

Butler University, which is not only the official host of the Final Four but also an unlikely participant, is not the only “Butler” in town this weekend in Indianapolis.

Da’Sean Butler, of course, is West Virginia’s star player and senior leader. The 6-foot-7 forward (17.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.3 apg) boasts some impressive numbers, but his value extends far beyond the stat sheet.

Butler has hit six game-winning shots in the final seconds this season and he did it twice in the Big East tournament. Tied with the clock ticking down against Cincinnati, Butler delivered a miracle 3-pointer at the buzzer. Butler then drained an off-balance, contested runner to beat Georgetown 60-58 in the championship.

“I can tell you right now from watching two games of tape, Butler one of best players in the country,” gushed Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski. “He’s a great player and a clutch player. Nobody has hit as many big shots as this kid. He loves the moment.”

“When your best player is the best person and unquestionably is your hardest worker you’re going to be good,” WVU coach Bob Huggins said during Monday’s Final Four conference call.

Butler was named a Second Team All-American by the Associated Press earlier this week. So, too, was Duke’s own Jon Scheyer.

Brothers in arms

Nobody is going to confuse this Duke team with any of the most talented Krzyzewski has ever coached, but these Blue Devils are not relying on basketball skills alone to get the job done.

“This team will really be brothers forever,” Krzyzewski told the Durham Herald Sun. “It's as close a team as I've had. They’ve been spectacular to coach.”

“We have a genuine love for each other,” added senior Lance Thomas. “We know that we need each other to win. Not one guy is going to lead us to victory in a game.”

With that love comes an acceptance of roles, embodied by Thomas himself. The 6-foot-8 forward scores a mere five points per game, but his eight offensive rebounds against Baylor made the undisputed difference in last weekend’s South Region final.

On a team that sees three players (Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith) combined for 53.2 ppg, Brian Zoubek contributes only 5.4 ppg (still good four fourth on the team). No matter, though, because the 7-foot-1 center has grabbed 35 rebounds in Duke’s past three NCAA victories.

“I think people have grown into knowing the value of their roles,” Krzyzewski noted. “They take value from what we see as value, but that takes maturity. These kids are very mature, so they understand that.”

Defense wins championships

West Virginia has limited six of its last seven opponents to fewer than 60 points. Even though Kentucky eclipsed that mark for 66 in the title game of the East Region, the Wildcats shot an unbelievably bad 4-of-32 from three-point range and turned the ball over 16 times.

“We don’t like being scored on,” forward Devin Ebanks told the Times West Virginian. “We try to limit everybody’s scoring and limit their touches. It’s fun knowing that you can shut the other person down and outrebound the other team, just outman them, out-tough them. It’s a fun way to play.”

Duke has held three of its four NCAA Tournament opponents to fewer than 60 points (Baylor scored 71). The Blue Devils have not allowed more than 74 points since giving up 89 to Georgetown on January 30. Ten of their last 15 opponents have not reached 60 and four of their last 10 opponents did not even pass 50.

Common opponents

The Blue Devils went up against three teams from the Big East during the regular season—Connecticut on a neutral court, St. John’s at home and Georgetown in Washington. Duke dispatched the Huskies 68-59, beat St. John’s 80-71 and trailed Georgetown almost the entire way in an 89-77 loss.

West Virginia fell at Connecticut 73-62, crushed St. John’s on the road 79-60 and swept Georgetown (81-68 at home on March 1, 60-58 two weeks later in the Big East tournament final).

The one other common opponent this season was Long Beach State. The Mountaineers eased their way to an 85-62 road win back in November and the Blue Devils—at home—scored a similar 84-63 victory over the 49ers.

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The Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their four NCAA Tournament games, 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference contests and 5-1 ATS in their last six against ACC opponents.

The Blue Devils are also 4-0 ATS during this NCAA Tournament, but they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven against Big East opposition.

West Virginia (15-19 O/U) has been a decent under play this season and the under has definitely been the way to go with Duke (15-22 O/U). The under is 7-1 in WVU’s last eight overall and 4-1 in Duke’s last five overall.

Butler vs. Michigan State
By Judd Hall

The college basketball world descends upon Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis for this year’s Final Four. It all starts off on Saturday at 6:05 p.m. EDT on CBS when the hometown Bulldogs take on the Spartans for the right to play in the national final.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened this game up with Butler (32-4 straight up, 16-20 against the spread) as a 1 ½-point “chalk” with a total of 125. There hasn’t been much movement on that spread one way or the other, but the total has been bumped up to 126. Bettors looking to Tom Izzo to make it back to the title game can expect plus-105 on the money line (risk $100 to win $105).

Michigan State (28-8 SU, 15-19 ATS) successfully defended its Midwest Regional crown by the Volunteers 70-69 on the strength of Raymar Morgan’s free throw with less than two seconds left in regulation. The Spartans cashed in as two-point underdogs and cashed for a plus-115 return.

Durrell Summers paced the Spartans with a game-high 21 points, four rebounds and an assist. Morgan posted 13 points and 10 boards against the Vols, while Draymond Green scored 13 points with a pair of blocked shots.

Prior to dumping the sixth-seeded Vols, the Spartans squeaked by New Mexico State (70-67), beat Maryland (85-83) at the buzzer and controlled Northern Iowa (59-52) in the Sweet 16. Michigan State covered the number in all but the first game against the Aggies where they were a heavy 13-point favorite.

The fact that Izzo has his team back in the Final Four for the second straight year is nothing short of impressive. Consider that this was a region that housed the No. 1 overall seed in Kansas. It also had the Big Ten champion Buckeyes and Big East power Georgetown. So it’s no wonder that all the experts were picking this to be the toughest draw in the entire tournament. But Michigan State was able to avoid all three of those teams en route to Indy. Yet they did make it to this point after losing floor general Kalin Lucas midway through the game against the Terrapins with a torn left Achilles tendon.

The Bulldogs weren’t considered to be much of a threat to emerge out of the West Region this year. They were posted as the fifth-seed in that bracket and facing a sexy upset pick in No. 12 UTEP. Yet Butler found a way to emerge out of that game with a 77-59 win. Brad Stevens’ club also survived against Murray State (54-52) and upset top-seed Syracuse (63-59) to advance to the Elite Eight.

In the regional final, Butler got to take on the No. 2 Wildcats. Kansas State was coming off of an epic double-overtime victory over Xavier, and was listed as a four-point fave to cut down the nets in Salt Lake City.

The Bulldogs took advantage of an opponent that was playing on heavy legs to wrap up their first national semifinal berth with a 63-56 win. They dominated in shooting from the field (46%-39%), beyond the arc (47%-33%), at the free throw line (70%-50%) and won the battle of the boards (36-27).

Butler’s Gordon Hayward led all scorers with 22 points to go along with nine rebounds in a winning effort. Shelvin Mack did his part in the Bulldogs’ win with 16 points, seven rebounds and three assists. And Ronald Nored proved to be quite the pickpocket with a team-high four steals against K-State to compliment his five rebounds and five assists.

Now the Bulldogs find themselves playing just six miles away from their campus for a right to play in the national final. They’re also foreign territory as a program since this is their first trip to the Final Four. Could that play a factor in how they act in this game? It’s possible, but they also had never been to the Elite Eight before this season either.

The Spartans are no strangers to this stage as they’re entering their second straight Final Four and the sixth in Tom Izzo’s 15 years running the program.

What could be a factor for Butler is the fact they have only played one other game in a football stadium such as this. They wound up losing to the Gators 65-57 in the Midwest Region semifinal back in 2007 at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis. A plus for gamblers in that game is that the Bulldogs did cover that game as 10 ½-point pups.

One thing that Butler does know how to do is win the tight matchups. The Bulldogs were listed as single-digit favorites 14 times this season; they went 14-0 SU and 8-6 ATS in those contests. The ‘over’ was a big winner as well by going 10-4 in that stretch.

Michigan State has gone just 4-3 SU and ATS in its seven games as an underdog. However, the Spartans have shown up as a stronger wager in this spot recently with a 3-0 SU and ATS run.

The Spartans have been a decent ‘under’ team this year at 15-11-2, but the ‘over’ is 15-12 for Butler. Yet, the Bulldogs have watched the ‘under’ go 7-2 in their last nine games.

Regardless of the winner of this contest, they’ll be an underdog on Monday night. Mike Seba of LVSC has tabbed Duke as a 3 ½-point fave against the ‘Dogs and 4 ½-point favorites over the Spartans. Against the Mountaineers, Butler is a 1 ½-point pup with MSU listed as a 2 ½-point underdog.

vegasinsider.com

Duke vs. West Va.
By Brian Edwards

For the first time since 2004, Duke (33-5 straight up, 22-13-2 against the spread) is back in the Final Four as the lone No. 1 seed remaining in the 2010 NCAA Tournament. Waiting for the Blue Devils in the national semifinals will be West Virginia, which is back in the Final Four for the first time since 1959.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Mike Krzyzewski’s team as a two-point favorite with a total of 131. As of Thursday afternoon, most books had Duke listed as a 2 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total still at 131. Bettors can take the Mountaineers on the money line for a plus-125 return (risk $100 to win $125).

West Virginia (31-6 SU, 17-19 ATS) is still alive after knocking off top-seeded Kentucky 73-66 as a four-point underdog in last Saturday’s Elite Eight showdown at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, NY. Bob Huggins’ team hooked up money-line backers with a plus-160 payout, as the long-time head coach at Cincinnati improved to 8-1 in nine career head-to-head matchups against John Calipari (in other words, Cal is Huggy’s do-boy!).

Joe Mazzulla, the junior guard who has been hampered by a shoulder injury for most of the last two seasons, got his first start of the year against the ‘Cats and responded with a career-high 17 points before fouling out with nearly three minutes remaining. Mazzulla, as you might recall, came under heavy scrutiny – especially from ESPN analyst Doug Gottlieb – last week after starting point guard Darryl ‘Truck’ Bryant broke his foot.

While this space suggested that Bryant’s loss was in no way a ‘deal-breaker’ for WVU because of Mazzulla’s moxy and experience, pundits like Gottlieb spent last week harping on how Mazzulla was a complete non-factor offensively. I sent out this tweet last Wednesday: Memo to WVU's Joe Mazzulla: Don't sweat ESPN's Doug Gottlieb, who had a career FT% of 45.7 and shot at a 24% clip from 3-point land.

Mazzulla wasn’t the only ‘Neer taking it to UK last Saturday. Da’Sean Butler knocked down four treys and finished with a team-high 18 points. Kevin Jones added 13 points, eight rebounds and a pair of blocked shots, while Devin Ebanks had 12 points and seven boards.

Most importantly, WVU defended tenaciously, utilizing a 1-3-1 zone that gave Kentucky fits. Mazzulla was instrumental in using his speed and strength running the baseline, while Butler and/or Ebanks’ presence out top with their length and athleticism really caused problems for UK’s guards.

WVU’s defense forced the ‘Cats to miss their first 20 attempts from beyond the arc and to shoot an atrocious 4-of-32 from 3-point range for the game. We might see the Mountaineers use a little of that same 1-3-1 zone against Duke, but we’re more likely to see WVU go man-to-man with hopes of using its superior speed to give the Blue Devils problems.

Duke appeared to be in serious trouble in its South Region finals matchup against Baylor in Houston. The Bears led by a 35-32 count at intermission and were seemingly in control the entire second half until an extremely controversial whistle completely turned the game.

With Baylor leading 59-57 at the 4:37 mark, Quincy Acy caught a pass on the baseline and darted to the basket. Duke center Brian Zoubek, playing with four fouls at the time, ran up under Acy and clearly didn’t beat him to the spot. Replays showed that there was no question that it was a block, which would’ve fouled out Zoubek and sent Acy to the charity stripe for two shots.

Instead, a charge was inexplicably called. On the ensuing possession, Nolan Smith buried a 3-pointer to five Duke the lead. Several possessions later, Zoubek grabbed a crucial offensive rebound and immediately dished the ball back out for Jon Scheyer, who knocked down a trey to give the Blue Devils a 67-61 advantage.

Although Duke was in control for the outright win with a 70-62 lead at the 1:36 mark, another controversial call was certainly felt by gamblers. Scheyer got tied up around midcourt and as the whistle was blown, words and ‘love taps’ (harmless elbows) were exchanged.

To use a football term, there’s no doubt that it should’ve been an ‘offsetting’ situation. In other words, call a double technical or just let it go. Instead, Baylor was charged with a technical and Scheyer made both free throws.

When Baylor missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer, Duke moved on with a 78-71 win as a five-point favorite. Obviously, Baylor backers would’ve been looking at a push instead of a loss if the technical had not been called. The 149 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 138-point total.

Smith finished with a game-high 29 points for Duke, draining 4-of-6 attempts from long range. Scheyer had 20 points on 5-of-10 shooting from beyond the arc. Kyle Singler was held to just five points and shot an abysmal 0-for-10 from the field, but that factoid probably has Dookies feeling even better about their chances this week.

These schools met in the Sweet 16 two seasons ago with Mazzulla leading WVU to a 73-67 win as a four-point underdog. The 140 combined points fell ‘under’ the 146-point total. Mazzulla nearly recorded a triple-double, scoring 13 points, grabbing 11 rebounds and dishing out eight assists. Butler fouled out and was limited to just 19 minutes of play, finishing with eight points and five boards.

Scheyer had 15 points off the bench in the 2008 loss to the Mountaineers, while Singler had just six points and was plagued by foul trouble.

The ‘under’ was on a 7-0 run for the Mountaineers and was looking golden to cash once again in their win over Kentucky. However, the ‘Cats began a foul-fest with nearly three minutes remaining and the free throws galore down the stretch allowed for the ‘over’ to become the winner in that contest.

For the season, the ‘under’ is 19-15 overall for WVU. The ‘under’ is 22-15 overall for Duke.

During Thursday’s edition of the Power Hours on VI Radio, I posed this question to handicapper Andy Iskoe: Do bettors have a genuine concern about the officials if thinking about fading Duke against West Va?

Iskoe said, “Oh, I think it’s a very legitimate concern when going against Duke this time of year. You always have to wonder if it’s going to be a situation where you have five players going against seven or eight with the men in stripes siding with the Blue Devils. The NCAA’s contract with CBS is up here in a few months, so there’s no doubt that it’s important to get the best ratings possible on Monday night, and we all know Duke will attract better rating in the title game than West Virginia would.”

Also on the Power Hours, I asked BoDog Sportsbook Manager Richard Gardner about how the action was going (as of Thursday night) for the two semifinal matchups. Gardner said, “We’ve been getting good two-way action for both games thus far, but we’ve taken a considerable more amount of action on the WVU-Duke game. More money has come in on the Mountaineers, but plenty of players are taking the Blue Devils as well.”

This game will tip approximately 30 minutes after the conclusion of Michigan St.-Butler.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

LVSC oddsmaker Mike Seba provided me with these numbers for the four potential national-title game matchups: Duke -3.5 vs. Butler; Duke -4.5 vs. Michigan St.; West Va. -1.5 vs. Butler; WVU -2.5 vs. Michigan St.

Duke is the only No. 1 seed to make the Final Four. West Virginia was the second seed in the East region, while Butler and Michigan State were both No. 5 seeds.

Duke is 4-0 ATS in the Tournament, covering against Arkansas Pine-Bluff, California, Purdue and Baylor. Ditto to WVU in wins and spread covers against Morgan St., Missouri, Washington and Kentucky.

Bob Huggins returns to the Final Four for the first time since taking Nick Van Exel and the Cincy Bearcats to the 1992 national semifinals in Minneapolis, where they lost to…….Michigan’s Fab Five, which lost to Duke in the finals.

Best NCAA Tourney Games so far
1-K-St. over Xavier in double OT
2-No. Iowa over Kansas
3-Michigan St. over Tennessee
4-Washington over Marquette
5-BYU over Florida in double OT

With top seeds Kansas, Syracuse and Kentucky going down, the Blue Devils are now the ‘chalk’ for future wagers. Most books have the Blue Devils at plus-135 (risk $100 to win $135). WVU has the second-shortest odds at around plus-230, while Butler and Michigan St. are at plus-350 and plus-400, respectively.

vegasinsider.com

Final Four Preview

Butler is at home; its only six miles from Hinkle Fieldhouse to Lucas Oil Stadium, but Michigan State won a national title in Indy in 2000, so Izzo probably feels at home too. Bulldogs won last 24 games, already beating #1 seed Syracuse in its region. Last time there was a national semifinal game where neither team was a #1-4 seed was 2000, when Florida beat North Carolina before losing to Izzo's Spartans in final. Butler is 2-1 vs Big 11 teams, winning at Northwestern 67-54, Ohio State 74-66, losing to Minnesota on neutral floor, 82-73. Bulldogs are super on defense; can they keep Spartans away from offensive boards? Michigan State won by 30 over Valparaiso in its only game against an Horizon League team.

Duke is in first Final Four since '04; Huggins is in first one since '92 with Cincinnati. West Virginia beat Duke 73-67 in second round game back in '08, when Duke was #2 seed, WVa #7. Blue Devils lead country, holding foes to 27.8% behind arc; they're facing #1 offensive rebounding team in country. Duke played 4th-hardest schedule, WVa faced the #2 schedule, so both team are battle-tested. Duke is 2-1 vs Big East teams, losing at Georgetown by 12, beating St John's (80-71), UConn (68-59). Duke is on 8-game win streak, Mountaineers won last 10 (were an underdog in three of the ten) games. In its seven postseason games, West Virginia is allowing an average of just 55.9 ppg. Darryl Bryant not expected to be in lineup (foot) but Mountaineers beat Kentucky without him.

Michigan State vs. Butler Betting Preview
Doug Upstone

The first semi-final of the Final Four is the most unusual pairing since No.11 George Mason was matched against No. 3 Florida in 2006. Though we weren't really certain just how good the Gators truly were until a couple days later, at least they were among the top 12 seeds in that tournament. This year, Michigan State and Butler are a pair of five seeds, which happens to be the lowest matchup of seeds since fifth-seeded Florida faced eighth-seeded North Carolina ten years ago.

Doing it the Izzo way

Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) is trying to return to national championship game and has had quite a journey. In this tournament alone, the Spartans have wins by 1, 2 and 3 points and "beat down" of Northern Iowa by a whole seven points. Michigan State players do deserve props for making it this far, since it would appear unlikely that any of the other three teams still playing college basketball would be here if they lost their leading scorer like Tom Izzo's team did in Kalin Lucas.

The Spartans are 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and will have to follow the same formula that got them to Indianapolis. Durrell Summers is averaging 22 points in last three contests, scoring from inside and out. Raymar Morgan has more picked his spots, but made a volume of buckets when his team needed it most. Draymond Green is big body that is difficult to maneuver on either side of the floor and is among the reasons Michigan State outrebounds teams by 8.7 per contest. Korie Lucious has stepped his game taking over the point and though he makes the occasional head-shaking turnover, he's been an exceptional facilitator and has a feel when to take the right shot. The Spartans are 15-6 ATS away from home having won four of their last five games over the last two years.

Bulldogs believe in the "Butler Way"

Cinderella doesn't get to this dance scrubbing floors, which by why Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) is not a fairly tale. The Bulldogs have won 24 consecutive games (13-11 ATS) with a staunch defense, not having surrendered more than 59 points in the tournament and doing so just once in previous 12 encounters. This makes them difficult to beat as a coach that has faced Butler noted.

"They're the best late-game defensive team I've played against, with switching and making all the right decisions. They're really good in late-game decisions both offensively and defensively. I was really impressed. Everything they do is so solid."

Butler is up to 7-3 ATS in the NCAA's and while Brad Stevens looks like Tom Izzo's unpaid assistant in charge of taping opposing teams games, this dude can coach. He's put together this smothering help-defense and brings calmness, as you don't see Butler players wide-eyed when the opponent makes a surge.

Sophomore point guard Ronald Nored said this, "If you beat us, it won't be because you rattled us."

Butler will experiment with four guards and Gordon Hayward against the Spartans to see how they adjust. This offense has given the Bulldogs a quickness edge which opens up the lane for different players to take their man off the bounce or run "pick and rolls" or "pick and pops" in isolation sequences.

This is close

Butler is a one-point favorite, with total of 126.

Coach Stevens has a motto made for texting-TGHT- which stands for, The Game Honors Toughness. Butler showed their "onions" giving away leads to Syracuse and Kansas State, before bulling the neck and putting each team away in the final minutes. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less in consecutive contests and 7-1 against the number when seeded 5th to 8th in the NCAA tournament. They are 8-0 OVER on a neutral court floor when the total is 129.5 or less, however the crowd will be far from neutral with hometown team getting the support from locals.

Michigan State is 29-15 ATS in all their NCAA appearances over the last 13 years and is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less or pick and are 25-11 UNDER versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds a game on the season after 15 or more have been played.

The excitement swells until 6:05 Eastern tip, with Final Four squads off two upset victories like Butler 2-8 ATS.

West Virginia vs. Duke Betting Preview
Doug Upstone

You want intensity? I said do you want intensity! Well get up off the couch, sit straight up with both feet planted firmly on the floor, because Bob Huggins and Mike Krzyzewski have narrowed eyes, with taunt faces, having prepared their teams as only they can for the second Final Four game of the day involving a 1 and 2 seed.

Missed shots, no problem

Of the four finalists in downtown Indianapolis, West Virginia (31-6, 17-19 ATS) is the poorest shooting team at 43.1 percent. For the Mountaineers, this just means opportunity for their athletic leapers to spring into action, collect the orange and put it back in the basket. West Virginia averages 15.5 offensive rebounds a game and is 8-1 ATS in road affairs when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds a contest since Huggins returned to alma mater.

Butler University isn't the only butler in town, as the Mountaineers have Da'Sean Butler, who at least in West Virginia circles has opponents saying "the butler did it". This is what a Big East coach said about Butler the player.

"[Da'Sean Butler] is so versatile. Our guy did a good job on him. We tried to limit his touches. In their five-man motion [offense], they'll run 25 seconds off the clock if they don't get a quick one. They keep moving. Butler has won so many games and hit so many big shots. We kind of overplayed him and let someone else do it. When he has the ball, he can score from 3.' He can penetrate, and he hits the boards hard."
Long athletes like Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones and Wellington Smith pound the glass and have understood their roles in the offense better as the season has unfolded. It's little wonder why the Teers have tore off 10-game (7-3 ATS) winning streak.

Dukies have depth

Quietly, a few whispers had been heard that possibly Coach K no longer had the Midas touch in bringing in top-rate recruits to Durham, particularly tall ones. This has led to a few early exits in the Big Dance the past few seasons. This season has been a renaissance for Duke (33-5, 22-14-1 ATS), with frontline players complimenting its best players and adding a physical aggressiveness not seen around the program lately.

Maybe it was the practices, or Mason and Miles Plumlee acting like the Hanson brothers from "Slap Shot", but all of the sudden the Blue Devils were devilish on defense and demons on the offensive boards. Brian Zoubek finally became the player the Duke coaches had envisioned, being an ill-tempered rebounder and defender, with a real thirst for winning. Lance Thomas had played an undersized center in his career, but was allowed to move to four spot on the floor and his confidence and energy increased.

The Plumlee brothers gained confidence themselves and started moving out opposing players like bouncers at a Durham night spot. Kyle Singler got into the act and Duke was like the Pistons of 1989-90, the "Bad Boys" with polite smiles as opposed to snarls. This Duke team fooled everyone, even the oddsmakers, which is why they are 21-13 ATS after playing consecutive games as favorite this season.

Combat gear required

Duke is a short two-point favorite at Sportbet.com, with total falling to 131. The Blue Devils do not shoot the rock a great deal better than West Virginia at 44 percent, but tracks down 14.6 offensive rebounds a contest and they are 20-8 ATS after two straight games with 15 or more offensive boards. Duke is 12-2 OVER in a neutral court setting where the total is 130 to 139.5.

The Mountaineers are the bettor's best pal with 16-2 ATS record in a NCAA tournament conflicts and 11-4 UNDER after they have covered the spread this season.

Games involving 1 vs. 2 seeds have the higher seed 5-4 SU in the Final Four since field was taken to 64 teams. Two betting twists of note: two seeds off a double digit spread win are 1-7 ATS in this round, but a top seed that is unbeaten ATS to this point is 1-5 ATS in next outing.

(5) Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) vs. (5) Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS)

Butler, which has rolled off 24 consecutive SU victories, will play what amounts to a home game at Lucas Oil Stadium when it makes its first Final Four appearance against the Spartans, who are in the Final Four for the second straight year and sixth time in the last 12 years.

Butler bagged a pair of upsets last week, taking down top-seeded Syracuse 63-59 as a six-point underdog in the Sweet 16, then bouncing No. 2 seed Kansas State 63-56 as a 3½-point pup to win the West Regional in Salt Lake City. Over the past five games, the Bulldogs have averaged a modest 65.4 ppg, but they’ve given up just 54.2 ppg. In fact, Butler has held 11 of its last 12 opponents to 59 points or less, including the last six in a row. For the season, the Bulldogs rank 10th nationally in scoring defense (59.6 ppg).

Michigan State also made a bit of an unexpected run to the national semifinals, with its four wins in the Big Dance coming by a total of 13 points. That includes a three-point win over New Mexico State in the first round, a two-point win on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer against Maryland in the second round, and Sunday’s 70-69 Elite Eight squeaker over sixth-seeded Tennessee as a two-point pup in the Midwest Regional final in St. Louis.

Butler, in its fourth straight Tournament and 10th overall, will be playing in its first Final Four just a scant seven miles from its Indianapolis campus. Meanwhile, this is familiar territory for Michigan State, which reached this stage just last year, beating UConn 82-73 as a 4½-point pup before losing the title game 89-72 to North Carolina as a 7½-point ‘dog. The Spartans are in their 24th Big Dance and eighth Final Four, reaching the national semis for the third time since 2005.

Butler is 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) at neutral venues this year, outscoring teams by a bucket per game on average (66.6-64.6) while getting outshot 44.4 percent to 40.5 percent. Michigan State has played seven neutral-site contests, going 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) while pouring in 75.9 ppg and surrendering 69.7 ppg.

The Bulldogs struggled against the number throughout the regular season, but they’ve now cashed in four of their last five overall and are on further ATS rolls of 5-1-1 against the Big Ten, 4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 7-3 in the Tourney, 43-21-1 outside the Horizon League and 6-2 on Saturday. The only knocks: a 3-10 ATS mark in their last 13 following a spread-cover, and a 1-4 ATS record in their last five as a neutral-floor favorite.

The Spartans own a handful of positive ATS streaks, including 25-10-1 in the Tournament (8-2 last 10 and 3-0 in the last three), 4-1 as an underdog, 9-4 on neutral courts, 7-2-1 as a neutral-site pup, 4-1 as a Tourney ‘dog and 9-4 against the Horizon League. Still, they are 4-8 ATS in their last dozen starts against winning teams.

The under is 30-12-1 in Michigan State’s last 43 starts as an underdog, but the Spartans are on “over” surges of 8-0 against the Horizon League, 6-2 at neutral sites, 4-0 as a neutral-site pup, 4-0 as a Tourney ‘dog, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 5-2 after a SU win.

Butler is on an 11-5 “over” tear at neutral sites, and the over is on a 7-2 run with the Bulldogs as a neutral-site chalk. However, Butler also carries a host of “under” trends, including 8-1 overall (3-0 in the Tourney), 4-0 on Saturday, 6-1 as a favorite, 6-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 5-1 in non-conference contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE

(2) West Virginia (31-6, 17-19 ATS) vs. (1) Duke (33-5, 22-13-2 ATS)

The Blue Devils, the sole-surviving No. 1 seed in a Big Dance rife with upsets, look for their ninth consecutive victory when they take on the equally red-hot Mountaineers, winners of 10 in a row.

The last seven victories in Duke’s eight-game tear have come on neutral courts (the ACC tournament and the Big Dance). The Blue Devils have cashed in all four of their Tourney wins, including a trio of double-digit victories in the first three rounds before holding off Baylor 78-71 laying 4½ points in Sunday’s South Regional final in Houston. In its last five starts, Duke has outscored the opposition by nearly 14 ppg (70.8-57.2) and grabbed nearly nine rebounds more per contest (37.2-28.4).

West Virginia swept through three games to win the Big East tourney (0-3 ATS), then went 4-0 SU and ATS in the first two weekends of the Big Dance. That was capped by last Saturday’s 73-66 upset of top-seeded Kentucky as a four-point underdog in the East Regional final in Syracuse, N.Y. During the seven-game stretch, Kentucky was the only team to reach 60 points, as the Mountaineers allowed an average of just 55.9 ppg, while scoring 64.9.

Duke has made 34 Tournament appearances, including 14 in a row, and it is a No. 1 seed for the 11th time overall and the sixth time this decade. However, this is the Blue Devils’ first Final Four appearance since 2004, when it lost to UConn 79-78 in the semifinals as a 1½-point underdog. West Virginia, which received its highest seed in school history this year and is in its 23rd Tourney, has reached the Final Four for the first time since 1959.

These two schools squared off two years ago in the second round of the Tournament, with West Virginia nabbing a 73-67 victory as a four-point underdog. They also met in the second round in 1989, with Duke notching a 70-63 win.

Duke and West Virginia are both 11-0 SU on neutral courts this year, with the Blue Devils going 8-3 ATS and the Mountaineers going 6-5 ATS. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s squad has outscored opponents by more than 14 ppg (71.1-56.7) on neutral floors, and Bob Huggins’ troops have won by an average of 10.9 ppg (69.5-58.6).

Along with their 4-0 surge in the Tourney, the Blue Devils are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at neutral sites (all as a chalk), but they also shoulder Big Dance ATS skids of 6-11 a chalk and 2-6 when laying less than seven points. The Mountaineers are on ATS rolls of 12-2-1 in the Big Dance, 5-0-1 as a Tourney pup, 7-1 as a neutral-site pup, 7-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 5-0 outside the Big East and 5-1 against the ACC.

The over is 11-5 in West Virginia’s last 16 tilts as a neutral-site pup, but the under carries the day for both teams from there. Duke is on “under” tears of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 19-7 at neutral sites, 4-1 in the Tournament, 4-1 as a Tourney chalk and 9-4 against Big East opposition. The Mountaineers are on “under” streaks of 7-1 overall, 7-1 on neutral courts, 6-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 19-7 following a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

March Madness Final Four Preview
By Alan Boston

Duke Blue Devils vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Current line: Duke -2.5

"I made the game Duke minus-1, so even off my power rating I would be looking to bet West Virginia. And I like West Virginia. After watching Duke-Baylor I could see just how bad Duke is. Baylor athletically was just dominating the game until the refs took over and I think they absolutely cheated Baylor out of that game. This is not subjective Duke bashing. I bet Duke in that game and wanted it to happen, but it was just insane. So now that I can see Baylor was just too good for Duke athletically, I think West Virginia will likely be the same. It plays intelligently and if you have better athletes and, I think, better coaching and are an underdog it usually leads to a win. When the two teams last played in the tournament in 2008 Bob Huggins threw a matchup zone at Duke and the Blue Devils were confused. West Virginia beat Duke easily, 73-67. I am expecting West Virginia to win rather easily.

Butler Bulldogs vs. Michigan State Spartans
Current line: Butler -1

"I made it pick ('em). But in retrospect the only team that Butler has played that has had any kind of smarts at all was Murray St. and Butler was fortunate to beat Murray. The other teams it played were not particularly well coached, either -- UTEP and Syracuse were exploitable and Butler always finds a way to attack your weaknesses and never mails in a possession. All that being said, when K-State had tons of energy and when teams have amped it up against Butler, it has struggled. Michigan St. always has intensity and smarts, and while it's not the most athletic Spartan team, it's in a lot of ways the same as Butler. It's a more athletic version of Butler. Screaming fans aren't going to hurt the Spartans, either. Sadly I think Butler's run ends. Too bad, it is a great story for college basketball. But I will be betting a lot on Michigan St."

Tips and Trends

Michigan St Spartans vs. Butler Bulldogs

Spartans: Coach Izzo is getting the majority of the respect for Michigan St. as they prepare to step on the court for yet another Final Four. This is the 6th time in 12 seasons Michigan St. has made it to the Final Four. Michigan St. has survived injuries to the star players, including PG Kalin Lucas. Backup PG Korie Lucious has done an admirable job filling in for the injured star, as he has more than held his own against other tournament teams. The Spartans have won all 4 NCAA Tournament games by a total of 13 PTS. Despite the close margin of victory, the Spartans are 3-1 ATS during the NCAA Tournament. Overall Michigan St. is 28-8 SU and 15-20 ATS this season. The Spartans are 13-6 SU and 10-9 ATS this season, including 5-2 SU in neutral court games. Michigan St. is 4-3 both SU and ATS this season as the listed underdog. The Spartans have struggled both in non-conference play and against teams with a winning record. Michigan St. was 6-10 ATS in non-conference play and 8-15 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. G Durrell Summers only averaged 11.2 PPG during the season, yet has come alive in the NCAA Tournament. Summers is coming off a 21 point performance in his last game and was voted Midwest Regional Most Outstanding Player.

Michigan St is 4-1 ATS last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 last 4 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog..

Key Injuries - G Kalin Lucas (foot) is out.
G Chris Allen (foot) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 65 (Side of the Day)

Bulldogs (-1, O/U 126): Butler is living a dream right now, so pardon the smiles on their faces. Butler is the first Final Four team to play in their hometown since UCLA played in Los Angeles in 1971. To get to Lucas Oil Stadium, Butler had to travel by bus for a mere 7.3 miles! Butler is in the Final Four mainly for their defense, as they've held each of their Tournament opponents under 60 PTS. Butler has won each of their past 2 games as the listed underdog. The Bulldogs are 32-4 SU and 16-20 ATS overall this season. Butler was a perfect 15-0 SU at home this season, and 17-4 SU in both road games and neutral court settings this season. Butler is 8-6 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Butler went 8-8 ATS in non-conference games this season. While underrated, Butler has won a nation best 24 consecutive games SU. 4 different Bulldogs average double figures in PTS this season, led by F Gordon Hayward. Hayward averages a team best 15.5 PPG and 8.2 RPG this season for Butler. G Shelvin Mack averages 14.2 PPG this season, including nearly 2 three pointers made per game. Butler is a very balanced team, as 5 different Bulldogs have led the team in scoring over their last 10 games.

Butler is 7-3 ATS last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
Under is 8-1 ATS last 9 overall.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 59

West Virginia Mountaineers at Duke Blue Devils

Mountaineers: West Virginia is streaking at the perfect time, as they've won their past 10 games. It's been quite a run for this Mountaineers team, as not only have they won the Big East Conference Tournament, but they've also earned the right to play in the Final Four. West Virginia beat #1 seed Kentucky 73-66, despite being the listed underdog. The Mountaineers continue to play stifling defense, as they have held 6 of their past 7 opponents under 60 PTS. West Virginia is 31-6 SU and 17-19 ATS overall this season. The Mountaineers are 18-4 SU and 11-11 ATS away from home this season, including a perfect 11-0 SU in neutral court settings. West Virginia and Duke are a perfect 22-0 combined in neutral court settings this season. West Virginia is 2-1 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Mountaineers have 3 Forwards that average double figures in PTS this year. F Da'Sean Butler leads the team with 17.4 PPG, and also pulls down 6.3 RPG this season. Forwards Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks combine for nearly 26 PPG and 15.4 RPG this season. West Virginia plays a superb 1-3-1 zone defense that really frustrates opponents. Kentucky missed their first 20 3 point shots against the Mountaineers.

West Virginia is 7-1 ATS last 8 neutral site games as an underdog.
Under is 7-1 last 8 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - G Truck Bryant (foot) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 62

Blue Devils (-2.5, O/U 131): Duke has been simply dominating in the NCAA Tournament, so it's no surprise they are back in the Final Four. Duke is the only #1 seed still alive, and they've clearly played like a #1 seed. Baylor was their only opponent to keep the final deficit within single digits during the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils are playing in their 15th Final Four in school history. Duke is 33-5 SU and 22-13-2 ATS overall this season. The Blue Devils are 16-5 SU and 11-9-1 ATS away from home this season, including 11-0 SU in neutral court games. Duke went 13-3 SU in ACC play this season, and has been ranked in the Top 5 in most rankings all year long. The Blue Devils are 9-6-1 ATS as s single digit favorite this season. The Blue Devis went an impressive 12-6 ATS in non-conference games this season. Duke has been playing outstanding defense this year, as they allowed opponents to average 61.1 PPG this season. Baylor was their only NCAA Tournament opponent to score more than 57 PTS against them. Offensively, Duke is led by the 3 headed monster of Guards Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith, along with F Kyle Singler. The trio combine for more than 53 PPG for Duke this season.

Duke is 4-0 ATS last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 64 (UNDER - Total of the Day)