Sunday's Best NCAAB Bets
Miami Hurricanes at Duke Blue Devils (-18.5)
Unlike most college basketball squads, the Cameron Crazies don’t rattle the Miami Hurricanes.
Miami has gone toe-to-toe with the Dukies on their fabled home court in recent years, going winless in its last four trips to Durham but managing to go 3-0-1 ATS in that span.
“The last four times we've played Duke, we've led them at halftime,” head coach Frank Haith told the Miami Herald. “I think our guys are excited about the opportunity to play the No. 1 team in the country on their home court.”
Last year, the Canes pushed the eventual NCAA champs to the limit as 11.5-point road underdogs, losing 77-74 after leading 35-32 at halftime. In 2009, Miami went into overtime at Cameron Indoor Stadium, losing a 78-75 nail biter as a 14-point pup.
Heading into Sunday, the Hurricanes have won four straight, going 3-1 ATS, since losing to Central Florida in mid December. They stomped Pepperdine 94-59 as 17-point faves Thursday, improving to 6-3 against the spread – the second-best ATS mark in the ACC, next to Duke.
Pick: Miami
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Villanova Wildcats (-15)
The Wildcats staked their claim for city bragging rights this week, knocking off Philadelphia rival, Temple, 78-74 but failing to cover as 5-point favorites.
Villanova has been a terrible bet to start the season, posting a 3-5-1 ATS mark while managing to cover the spread just once in the past six lined games. After such an emotional win over the Owls, sharp college hoops bettors are sniffing out a letdown spot against a tested Big East foe.
Rutgers is coming off a 78-55 blowout loss to North Carolina, however, head coach Mike Rice looks at that one-sided defeat as a blessing in disguise, giving his team a wakeup call before Big East play begins Sunday.
"To come out with the performance that we did, it was discouraging and at the same time eye-opening. We need to get better. Bottom line,” he told the New Jersey Star-Ledger. “We've been reading our press clippings too much or maybe looking forward to the process, but not putting in the work to get the end result. We've just got to go back to the drawing board."
Rutgers is 1-2 in its last three meetings with the Wildcats, but has flipped that record against the spread. In 2009, the Scarlet Knights managed to cover as 16.5-point underdogs at The Pavilion, losing 82-72.
Pick: Rutgers
No. 1 Duke tested by Miami in NCAA betting
By: Michael Robinson
The Duke Blue Devils get their first big test without point guard Kyrie Irving when they host the Miami Hurricanes on Sunday night. This is the ACC opener for both squads.
The Blue Devils are 12-0 straight-up (7-4 ATS) and the unanimous No. 1 team in the country. They were the heavy preseason favorite to defend their national title and remain so today.
Irving injured his toe in the team’s 82-70 win over Butler on Dec. 4 . That was a rematch of the thrilling national title game and played in New Jersey. The freshman point was averaging 17.4 PPG and 5.1 APG before getting hurt and could even miss the rest of the season.
The Blue Devils have played four games since the injury, big wins over Bradley (83-48), Saint Louis (84-47), Elon (98-72) and UNC-Greensboro (108-62). They were anywhere from 24½-35 point favorites and went 3-1 ATS. The team was 4-3 ATS with Irving running the show.
The UNC-Greensboro win on Wednesday moved coach Mike Krzyzewski ahead of Dean Smith on the all-time wins list (880), only trailing Bobby Knight (902).
Sophomore Andre Dawkins moved into the starting lineup for the first two games without Irving, with Seth Curry the last two. Neither of them are point guards which leaves Nolan Smith handling the ball. He’s averaging seven assists the last four games.
The bench is a question mark going forward with only Curry or Dawkins (whoever isn’t starting) capable of providing consistent offense. It wasn’t a concern against the four prior creampuffs, but will be during the ACC schedule.
The Blue Devils have won 22 straight games overall and 25 straight at home (16-6-1 ATS), last losing in February 2009 against North Carolina. They went 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in ACC home games last year.
The Hurricanes (11-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) have had a decent start to the season after finishing 20-13 SU (14-9 ATS) last year and failing to make even the NIT. A 4-12 SU record in the conference didn’t help.
The turnaround for coach Frank Haith actually began last year in the ACC tourney. Wins and ‘covers’ over Wake Forest (83-62) and Virginia Tech (70-65) led to a semifinal matchup with Duke. Miami lost 77-74, but easily ‘covered’ as 11 ½-point ‘dogs.
Guards Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant, plus center Reggie Johnson combined for 52 of the 74 points against Duke. Grant (15.9 PPG), Scott (13.5 PPG) and Johnson (12.1 PPG) are the three leading scorers this year, with Scott and Johnson only sophomores and Grant a junior.
The 6-foot-10, 300 pound Johnson is also doing a nice job on the boards (9.9 RPG), but he’s going to need help battling Mason and Miles Plumlee (both 6-foot-10). Kyle Singler is also a matchup problem at the small forward at 6-foot-8.
The Hurricanes have only played three true road games this year (going 1-1 ATS). They lost 72-68 at No. 19 Memphis back on Nov. 15, ‘covering’ the 6 ½-point spread. That’s the only ranked team they’ve faced this year.
Miami also lost at Rutgers 61-45 as four-point ‘chalk’ on Nov. 21. The only road win was almost a week later at Florida Gulf Coast, 87-75 in a non-lined affair.
Miami is 3-0-2 ATS in the last five games against Duke. The last road game was in February 2009, losing 78-75 in overtime as big 14-point ‘dogs. The ‘over’ is 8-0 in the last eight meetings between the teams.
There are no significant injuries to report besides Irving. Tip-off from Cameron Indoor Stadium will be 4:45 pm (PT).
College Basketball Knowledge
Villanova won six of last seven games vs Rutgers, winning last two here by 10-23 points; Wildcats had tough game with Temple Thursday (won 78-74); they're 11-1 overall, 4-5 vs spread as a favorite. Scarlet Knights had won six games in row before losing 78-55 to North Carolina in NYC Tuesday- their losses are by 5-6-23 points.
Gonzaga is 9-5 vs #15 schedule; they're long way from home after win at home vs Oklahoma State late Friday night. Wake Forest is 6-7, but 3-1 vs spread as underdog- as ACC teams usually go, they're awful, losing to Presbyterian/Stetson/Winthrop. Very long road trip and quick recovery time for Gonzaga though. ACC home underdogs are 3-2 vs spread.
Florida International lost five of last six games; they're 0-5 on road, 1-3 vs spread as road underdog, losing its away games by 9-37-9-9-3 points. Panthers lost three of last four games vs UL-Monroes, losing last two in this gym, 81-64/77-64. ULM lost seven of its last nine games, losing by a hoop in Sun Belt opener to Florida Atlantic.
Michigan won seven of last ten games vs Penn State, winning four of last five played here (lost by 4 LY), with wins by 18-5-20-15 points. Penn State followed up a home loss to Maine with a win at Indiana in its Big 11 opener, Lions' first win in three road games (lost by 13 at Ole Miss, at Va Tech by 10). Michigan is 3-2 as a favorite this season.
Ark-Little Rock won seven of last nine games vs Denver, but lost its last two visits here, 62-57/54-40; Trojans lost its Sun Belt opener by 12 at North Texas, their sixth straight road loss (1-6 as road dog). Denver won last three games by 3-18-13 points; they're 2-3 vs spread against spread as favorite. Hard to prepare for Princeton offense with two days' rest.
Middle Tennessee lost four of last five games; they're 1-4 in true road games, losing by 2-30-1-2 points. MTSU/South Alabama split last eight games; Blue Raiders lost two of last three visits here, losing by 15-14 points- they're 1-2 as an underdog. USA lost its Sun Belt opener by 12 at Arkansas state; they're 2-0 vs spread as a favorite. .
Virginia lost last two home games, to Seattle/Iowa State, after 50-49 win over Norfolk State, so they're struggling. LSU lost three of its last four games- they're 2-1 as underdog. SEC road dogs of 6+ points are 3-7-1 vs spread. ACC single digit home favorites are 6-8. ACC and SEC West are both looking to be historically weak this season.
7-6 Charlotte won its last three games by combined total of six pointds; they're 2-4 vs spread as underdogs. 7-5 Georgia Tech won three of last four games; they're 1-2 as a favorite- they upset Richmond, one of better teams in A-14 for best win they've had this season. ACC home favorites of 11-20 points are 4-7 vs spread. A-14 double digit road dogs are 5-5.
Road team won both Wisconsin-Illinois games in regular season LY, with Badgers winning 58-54 in Big 11 tourney; Badgers won three of last four visits here, with only loss by 7 in '09. Illinois won its Big 11 opener by 10 at Iowa- they're 3-2 as single digit favorite this year. Wisconsin is 2-0 as an underdog- they won Big 11 opener by 8 over Minnesota.
Miami won nine of its last ten games, with only loss by 6 to unbeaten Central Florida; Hurricanes lost four of last five games vs Duke, losing in Durham by 3-15 points- none of its last four series losses were by more than 15 points. Duke is 12-0, covering three of its last four games; they are 7-4 against the spread this season, all as favorites.
Former Stanford coach Montgomery won his last three games against the Cardinals, by 26-10-7 points; Bears lost two of last three visits to Farm, but won 76-73 in only true road game, at Iowa State. Bears are 7-5 vs the #7 schedule in country-- Stanford is 7-4 vs #253 schedule. Best team Stanford beat this season is #109 Virginia- they're 0-3 vs top 100 clubs.
Arizona had won 11 of 12 over Oregon State before losing twice to the Beavers LY; they're 4-2 in last six visits here, winning by 3-36-6-9 pts. Wildcats won Pac-10 opener by 19, their 4th win row- they're 8-2 vs the spread as a favorite. OSU crushed Arizona State by 22 Thursday- they are getting lift off bench from freshman Nelson (12 pts/18 min vs ASU).
Portland State won six of last eight games vs Idaho State, but lost its last two visits to Pocatello by 8ot-9 points. Vikings lost Big Sky opener by 13 at home to No Colorado- they're 0-4 on road, losing games by 16-19-15-6 points. ISU is 2-3 in last five games, beating Troy/Sacramento State both dreadful teams. PSU had two extra days to prepare for this.