Sunday's Best NCAAB Bet
Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini
If there is one place Purdue doesn’t want to be, it’s the road. The Boilermakers are 4-4 away from West Lafayette this season, but have dropped four straight on opposing campuses.
Purdue has lost at Wisconsin, Ohio State, West Virginia and Minnesota, all NCAA Tournament teams. The margin of defeat has varied from small – three at Minnesota – to huge – 23 at Ohio State. The biggest problem for Purdue in those losses has been offense, averaging a mere 63.5 points per game and never cracking the 70-point plateau.
That’s 10 points per game less than the solid 73.5 points per game the Boilermakers average on the season.
Meantime, Illinois has addressed some of its inconsistency issues by making wholesale changes to the starting lineup. Coach Bruce Weber swapped out Demetri McCamey, Mike Tisdale and Jereme Richmond for Brandon Paul, Meyers Leonard and Bill Cole. The result was a nine-point win against Minnesota after a lackluster, 1-point loss against Northwestern.
"We just are a team that can't deal with success," Weber said. "This scares me a little bit. This is great. I love how hard you played, but you have to do it again Sunday."
If they can play a little defense, they will definitely carry over that momentum – regardless of who starts.
Pick: Illinois
Purdue at Illinois: What Bettors Need to Know
Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini (-2.5, 134.5)
THE STORY: Illinois looks to continue building positive momentum after a big road win when it plays host to No. 12 Purdue in Champaign Sunday afternoon. The Fighting Illini are coming off a 71-62 victory at No. 25 Minnesota on Thursday night, snapping a four-game skid in Big Ten road games.
Purdue is mired in a four-game road losing streak of its own after previously winning 10 in a row away from home. The Boilermakers remain tied for second in the conference after topping Indiana, 67-53, Tuesday. Sunday's contest features three of the 30 midseason candidates for the Naismith Award - Purdue seniors JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore and Illinois senior guard Demetri McCamey.
TV: CBS, 1 p.m. ET.
ABOUT ILLINOIS (16-8, 6-5 Big Ten,13-11-0 ATS): The Illini have been in a bit of a tailspin, losing five of seven before toppling the Golden Gophers Thursday. McCamey and senior forward Mike Davis scored 17 points apiece to pace Illinois. Its only other win since Jan. 18 had come at home against Penn State on Feb. 1. McCamey, who leads the team in scoring (14.8 ppg), is also second in the Big Ten and seventh nationally in assists per game (6.6). Illinois is 15th in the country as a team in assists (16.7) and also 13th in 3-point shooting (40.4 percent).
ABOUT PURDUE (19-5, 8-3, 13-8-0 ATS): The Boilermakers have been building a reputation as one of the toughest road teams in the country, but the bottom has fallen out in the last month with losses at Minnesota, West Virginia, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Purdue has generally been able to win when expected, though, defeating every unranked opponent in league play. The Boilermakers rank eighth nationally in assist-turnover ratio (1.5) and 12th in turnovers per game (11.0). Johnson leads the Big Ten in scoring (20.6 ppg) and blocked shots (2.25), while Moore is sixth in scoring (17.8).
WHO'S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Johnson is averaging 23.0 points over Purdue's last eight games ... Purdue junior guard Ryne Smith is shooting 55.1 percent (27 of 49) from 3-point range in Big Ten play ... Davis is averaging 13.8 points and 7.8 rebounds in Illinois' last six games.
KEY STATISTIC: Illinois is 13-0 this season when McCamey registers seven or more assists.
RECENT HISTORY: Purdue has won the last three meetings between the two schools, including a clean sweep last season. The Boilermakers earned an 84-78 victory in Champaign and followed with a 75-65 home win a month later. Illinois had won three straight in the series prior to Purdue's current run.
LOOKING AHEAD: A huge week looms for the Boilermakers, who host Wisconsin Wednesday and No. 1 Ohio State next Sunday in hopes of avenging earlier losses to both teams. Illinois stays home to face Michigan Wednesday before traveling to Michigan State Saturday. The Illini travel to Purdue on March 1.
LAST WORD: While the Minnesota victory did wonders for Illinois' flagging RPI rating, the Illini could really use a victory Sunday to bolster its NCAA Tournament résumé. With three tough conference road games remaining, holding serve at Assembly Hall will be critical.
TRENDS:
* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Illinois.
* Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Illinois.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
NCAA Betting Preview: Marquette at Georgetown
By: Willie Bee
Imagine you and your buddy being invited to play in a huge poker tournament, only the tourney hosts tell your buddy he gets an automatic seat at the final table while you have to start from scratch and work your way through the event. That is essentially what is going on right now on the hardwood in the Big East where the ultimate regular season standings will determine who is guaranteed a chair at the final table.
Weekend action started with Pittsburgh owning a 1.5-game lead atop the conference at 10-1. Notre Dame followed with a 9-3 record and behind the Fighting Irish were nine teams with 4-5 Big East losses.
The Georgetown Hoyas and Marquette Golden Eagles are two of those nine teams as they prepare to square off Sunday in DC (10 a.m. PT, ESPN).
Once the dust clears on March 5, the top eight schools in the standings will get a bye in the first round of the postseason tournament with the top four getting to sit out the first two rounds. Georgetown (19-5 straight up, 14-9 against the spread) would get one of those two-round byes if the season ended with the present records. But the season doesn't end now, something that Marquette (15-9 SU, 11-7 ATS) is thankful for since the Eagles would have to start the Big East Tournament from scratch and earn their way to the Big East's version of the elite eight.
The only thing consistent with Marquette's game the past two weeks or so has been cashing 'under' tickets. Buzz Williams' bunch is coming off a Houdini Act down at South Florida this past Wednesday, escaping the Sun Dome with a 59-58 win as six-point chalk. Junior forward Jae Crowder was the only Golden Eagle who found the bucket with any reliability and the big reason why Marquette was able to rally from a 16-point deficit.
Marquette converted less than 40 percent of its field goals and missed 12 of 19 free throws, but thanks to Crowder's 4-for-5 day from three-point range the Eagles pulled off the win. The final score left Marquette with four consecutive 'unders,' 2-3 both SU and ATS in the last five trips to the floor.
Georgetown, No. 11 in the most recent AP rankings, currently owns a seven-game win streak (5-2 ATS in that span), the most recent victory a 64-56 job on the road at Syracuse as a 4½-point underdog. The closely-contested battle saw the Orange up 54-52 with 4:08 left when the Hoyas finally took over and closed with a 12-2 run.
Austin Freeman led four Georgetown players in double figures with 14 points; Hollis Thompson came off the bench to sink all three of his three-point shots, the last of which gave the Hoyas a 55-54 lead after which they never trailed.
The last meeting between the two teams came in last year's Big East Tournament, an 80-57 rout by Georgetown that snapped a three-game losing skid to the Golden Eagles.
Last year's lone regular season matchup was a 62-59 win for Marquette on its home floor as two-point chalk. The Golden Eagles covered all three games during their 2009-10 winning run, and three of the last four meetings have gone 'over' the total.
The Hoyas take a couple of days off following this game before heading to Hartford for Wednesday's matchup with the UConn Huskies. Marquette will return home for a pair of games next week, first taking on St. John's on Tuesday before Seton Hall comes to Milwaukee on Saturday.
Sunday's CBB Slate
By Brian Edwards
There are 23 games on Sunday’s college basketball board with the action starting at noon Eastern when Cincinnati plays host to St. John’s. Most betting shops opened the Bearcats as 5½-point favorites.
Cincinnati (19-5 straight up, 9-10 against the spread) appears to be poised for its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2005. Mick Cronin’s squad has won 13 of its 14 home games but is just 4-5 ATS.
Cincy has failed to cover the number in three consecutive games, including Tuesday’s 71-68 win at DePaul as a 10 ½-point road favorite. Freshman Sean Kilpatrick scored a team-high 19 points and also had five assists and four rebounds.
Steve Lavin’s team is coming off an 89-72 win over UConn as a 1½-point home underdog. Dwight Hardy enjoyed a monster night at Madison Square Garden, completely outplaying National Player of the Year candidate Kemba Walker with a 33-point effort on 10-of-17 shooting. D.J. Kennedy added 20 points, 11 rebounds and five assists for the Red Storm, who pulled into a seven-place tie with Cincy, UConn and Marquette with 6-5 records in league play.
The ‘under’ is 12-7 overall for the Bearcats, but they have seen the ‘over’ hit in back-to-back games.
This game will be televised on channel 720 on Direct TV as part of ESPN’s Full-Court Package.
After rallying to beat arch-rival North Carolina at home Wednesday, Duke (22-2 SU, 12-11 ATS) travels to South Florida to take on Miami. Most books opened the Blue Devils as 10-point favorites with a total of 146½.
Trailing UNC by 14 at intermission, Nolan Smith carried Duke to a 79-73 victory by scoring a career-high 34 points. The Tar Heels covered the number, however, as 10-point underdogs.
Seth Curry had his best game in a Duke uniform, combining with Smith to score 40 of Duke’s 50 points in the second half. Curry finished with 22 points, six assists and five rebounds.
Miami (15-9 SU, 9-10 ATS) has won three in a row but hasn’t covered the spread in any of those victories. The Hurricanes snapped a 13-game road losing against ACC teams Wednesday by winning 74-73 at Wake Forest. Johnson buried a pair of free throws with four seconds remaining to give his team the victory as an eight-point favorite. Johnson finished with a career-high 25 points.
When these teams met at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Jan. 2, Duke captured a 74-63 win but UM easily took the cash as a 19-point road underdog. Nolan Smith played all 40 minutes and scored a game-high 28 points to go with five rebounds and five assists. UM’s Reggie Johnson had a team-high 22 points and nine rebounds in the losing effort.
The ‘over’ is 10-9 overall for the ‘Canes, 5-4 in their home games. Meanwhile, Duke has seen the ‘over’ go 12-11 overall.
Miami owns a 4-0-2 spread record in the last six head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries.
The late-night game Sunday is Arizona at Arizona State. Tip-off is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on Fox Sports Net. Most books opened the Wildcats as 5 ½-point favorites.
Arizona (20-4 SU, 13-8-1 ATS) is in first place in the Pac-10 with a 9-2 record in conference play. Sean Miller’s team has won five straight games, posting a 4-0-1 ATS record in the process. The Wildcats are coming off a 107-105 win Thursday at California as two-point road ‘chalk.’
Lamont Jones scored 27 points to lead ‘Zona to the triple-overtime victory. Jones scored the buckets to force OT and the third extra session. Kevin Parrom added 25 points, six assists and six rebounds. Derrick Williams had 12 points and 18 boards.
Arizona State (9-14 SU, 7-13-1 ATS) is in the midst of a nightmare campaign. The Sun Devils are just .500 at home with a 5-5 SU record and a 3-4-1 ATS ledger. They have lost seven in a row, including last Saturday’s 83-75 setback at Stanford as six-point underdogs. Jamelle McMillan had a team-high 17 points in defeat.
ASU is in the basement of the Pac-10 with an atrocious 1-10 record, adding more emphasis on this rivalry game for head coach Herb Sendek, who could be teetering on hot-seat status in Tempe.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
If you didn’t know yet, now you do. Vanderbilt’s John Jenkins is one of the nation’s premier shooters and that fact was on display Saturday afternoon in Music City. Jenkins drained six 3-pointers and scored a career-high 32 points to lead the Commodores to an 81-77 win over Kentucky in a pick ‘em affair. The ‘Cats fell to 5-5 in SEC play.
Wisconsin handed Ohio St. its first loss of the season Saturday by rallying for a 71-67 win as a 1½-point home favorite. Jordan Taylor exploded for 21 of his 27 points in the second half to lead the Badgers back from a 15-point deficit in the second half. Like I said during Thursday’s edition of the Power Hours on VI Radio, I thought the Buckeyes would go down this weekend and they’re better off in the long run for doing so. Thad Matta’s team will have the head coach’s full attention moving forward and the Bucks won’t have to carry that burden of trying to be the first unbeaten team since 1976 (Bobby Knight’s Indiana Hoosiers).
Erving Walker scored the go-ahead bucket on Florida’s last possession to lift the Gators to a 61-60 win over Tennessee on Saturday night at the O-Dome. UF is now an incredible 8-1 against teams in the RPI Top 50. The Volunteers did manager the spread cover as 5½-point underdogs.
Georgia led South Carolina 28-9 at halftime but was barely able to hold off the late-charging Gamecocks in a 60-56 must-have victory for the Dawgs, who are now 6-4 in SEC play. They took the money as three-point road favorites despite causing an anxiety attack for their backers.
Ole Miss, Indiana, Florida and Auburn were excellent second-half looks Saturday. Trailing by 20 at the break, the Rebels rallied at Alabama and actually got ahead of the number (+7) with more than two minutes left. The Crimson Tide did salvage the cover, however, in the 74-64 triumph. Andy Kennedy’s squad was just a 1 ½-point favorite for halftime wagers, so the Rebels easily covered with an adjusted line of plus 18 ½. Down six at the half, the Gators were 4 ½-point favorites for intermission bets for an adjusted number of plus 1 ½.
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College Basketball Knowledge
St John's (-2) lost 53-51 at home to Cincinnati Jan 22, making just 12-26 at foul line; they were +8 in turnovers, -12 on boards. Red Storm is 1-3 as Big East road dog, losing last three away games by 15-25-25 points- they also lost at UCLA by 7. Bearcats are 3-4 in last seven games, 2-3 as a home fave. Big East home favorites of less than 6 points are 16-14.
Canisius won its last four games vs Loyola, winning last two played in this gym, by 2-12 points; Griffins won three in row, five of six overall-they're 3-2 as road dog (2-5 SU) with road losses by 9-10-8-4-15 points. Underdogs covered Loyola's last five home games; Greyhounds are 1-4 as home faves. MAAC home favorites of less than 5 points are 4-11.
NC State hasn't played in 8 days; they've lost four in row, seven of last eight, losing all five ACC road games by 9-13-10-20-24 points. State did beat Wake Forest 90-69 (-13) in ACC opener Jan 8, shooting 52% with a +22 edge on boards. Deacons are 1-8 in ACC, losing last three games by 24-21-1; they're 2-7 as ACC underdog, 2-2 as home underdog.
Favorites are 5-0 vs spread in Illinois' Big 11 home games; Illini are 4-1 at home (lost to Ohio St), winning by 8-25-9-17 points- they benched two starters last game, got win at Minnesota, just their third win in last eight games. Purdue lost its last four road games, by 3-4-23-7 points. Big 11 home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-4-1 against the spread.
Marquette won three of last four games vs Georgetown, but loss was in Big East tourney LY, 80-57; Eagles are 3-1 as Big East road dog, losing away games by 8-1-5-5 points (2-4 SU)- their last five games were all decided by 8 or less points. Hoyas won their last seven games; they are 1-5as home favorite. Big East single digit home favorites are 27-23.
Xavier/Duquesne are both 8-1 in Atlantic 14; this game is sellout, should be great atmosphere. Dukes haven't played for 8 days since first loss in A-14, in Olean- they're 4-0 as A-14 home favorite, winning by 22-12-16-18-25 points. Xavier won eight of last nine games, but lost last road game, at Charlotte. A-14 home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-15.
Northwestern lost four of last five games; they're 1-4 as Big 11 road dog, losing away games by 13-25-4-11-9 points, with win at Iowa. Penn St. lost last three games, by 17-3-18 points, scoring 56.7 ppg, but they won four of last five home games (1-1 as home favorite). Home favorites of 3 or less points are 5-2-1 against the spread in Big 11 this season.
Minnesota (-10.5) beat Iowa 69-59 at home Jan 16, but Gophers are 1-5 on Big 11 road, with only win at Michigan- they've lost last four games, by 12-3-13-9 points, and are down to 8 scholarship players. Iowa won two of last three games, with an OT loss to Wisconsin- they're won two of last three at home. Big 11 home teams are 11-6-1 if spread if 4 or less.
Underdogs are 13-1 vs spread in Siena's MAAC games; Saints are 0-8 as a favorite, 0-2 on road- they're 3-4 SU on road, with wins by 13-7-17 points. Siena (-12) beat Manhattan 64-57 at home nine days ago. Jaspers are 2-12 in MAAC, but they're 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven games, 1-4 as home dog, losing home games by 29-15-6-21-9-9 points.
Fairfield (-11) crushed St Peter's at home 70-43 Jan 9; Stags are 12-2 in MAAC, 5-1 on road, with only loss by point at Loyola- they're 3-5 vs spread in last eight games as favorite. Peacocks are 6-1 at home, losing to Loyola by 2- they won six of last seven games overall, are 2-3 as dog in MAAC games. MAAC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-7.