Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
Sunday’s college basketball slate features 18 games on tap and seven of the contests will be televised nationally. Two early battles will feature some top-notch schools in No. 2 Syracuse and No. 13 Ohio State, while the late-night games showcase two teams, Florida State and USC, trying to make a postseason push.
Let’s take a closer look!
Louisville (15-9 SU, 7-12 ATS) at Syracuse (24-1 SU, 15-6 ATS)
Has Louisville’s bubble burst? Most would believe so after watching the Cardinals get blasted 74-55 by St. John’s last Thursday from Madison Square Garden. The loss couldn’t have come at a worst time, especially with rumors circling around Rick Pitino. Reports stated that the head coach was interested in jetting back to the NBA, in particular the New Jersey Nets. For now, they’re untrue and most executives in the big leagues probably know his time has passed. You just wonder if the Cardinals faithful know too.
Louisville has a chance to redeem itself on Sunday and silence the critics when it faces Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. That’s not going to be easy, considering the Cardinals are 1-6 in road games this year and the only victory came against a Providence (92-70) squad that can’t guard anybody.
Syracuse has outscored opponents by an average of 21 points (83-62) at home this season, which has produced a 15-1 SU and 7-5 ATS mark. On Wednesday, the Orange stopped UConn 72-67 but failed to cover the point-spread (10 ½).
Even though the Orange have been able to put up points this season, the defense has been just as good and it’s been reflected in totals. The ‘under’ has gone 11-6 this season, which includes a current ‘under’ run of 8-1. Louisville has also watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 in its last six games.
Last year, Louisville took both encounters against Syracuse including a 76-66 victory in the Big East championship. The total went 1-1.
Ohio State (19-6 SU, 11-10 ATS) at Illinois (17-8 SU, 9-14 ATS)
Anytime you see an unranked team giving points to a ranked team, it says a lot and that’s the case with this battle. Illinois has quietly won five straight games, three of them coming on the road and two against Michigan State (78-73) and Wisconsin (63-56). The Fighting Illini hasn’t played since Tuesday and another big win here should get the school back into the Top 25.
Standing in their way will be a red-hot Ohio State squad that has won nine straight conference (6-3 ATS) games, but only three were on the road. We mention that fact because the Buckeyes have gone 3-5 SU and 4-6 ATS on the road this year and only one of the wins (Purdue) would be deemed as quality.
The Fighting Illini has gone 12-1 at home this season, and their loss came against Purdue (78-84) on Jan. 19. The ‘over’ has recorded an 8-2 mark in the 10 games with totals listed.
Illinois swept the season series against Ohio State last year, which included a 67-49 win in Champaign. Prior to those victories, the Buckeyes had won five straight in this series. Both
schools appear to be on their way to at-large bids for March Madness but a win in this spot would certainly go a long way toward the Big Ten regular season title.
Boston College (12-12 SU, 8-11 ATS) at Florida State (17-7 SU, 5-14 ATS)
The Eagles and Seminoles will square off in another expected slugfest on Sunday, but this time the action will take place in Tallahassee. Florida State defeated Boston College 61-57 on Jan. 30 as a one-point underdog in Chestnut Hill. Last year, the teams split the regular season series with the home team winning each game. Does the split happen again this year with the road teams claiming victories?
Considering Boston College’s 4-4 road record both SU and ATS, it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see them upset FSU. Unfortunately, all four losses were in ACC play and the lone road conference win was at Miami (79-75), who isn’t a top unit this season.
Florida State has gone 11-2 SU at home this year, but gamblers have watched them post a horrendous 1-8 record ATS in the nine games with a line. The only cover for the Seminoles over this span came against Tennessee Martin (95-68) on Dec. 22 as 25-point favorites.
With Florida State giving close to 8 ½-points against Boston College, it makes you wonder if Leonard Hamilton’s team is capable of running somebody out of the building.
UCLA (11-12 SU, 10-11 ATS) at USC (14-9 SU, 11-10 ATS)
It’s been said that the Pac 10 might be lucky to get more than one seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament and neither one of these teams have been mentioned. The Bruins have been plagued by injuries all season long and the Trojans are still trying to regroup after the Tim Floyd fiasco in the offseason.
Despite having a banged-up roster, UCLA has won four of its last six games, three of them coming at Pauley Pavilion. Unfortunately, Sunday’s contest won’t be played at home and that hasn’t been a good thing for Ben Howland’s team. The Bruins have gone 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS in road and neutral games, but the two victories did come in Pac 10 play.
USC has been a tough out at home (10-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) this season, especially during conference play (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS). The lone conference loss came to Washington State (60-67), which saw the Trojans shoot just 37 percent from the field. The other two losses at Galen Center were a bit surprising too, coming early in the season to Loyola Marymount (59-67) and Nebraska (48-51).
The Trojans like to slow it down under head coach Kevin O’Neil and the style has produced an ‘under’ record of 14-6 (70%).
USC romped UCLA by 21 points (67-46) on Jan. 16 as a one-point road underdog. The Trojans shot 52 percent from the field while the Bruins struggled to a 33 percent mark, which included a 3-of-20 performance from 3-point land. The combined 113 points dipped ‘under’ the closing total of 116 and total players should note that the ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run in the last six.
After this contest, the pair will have four days off before embarking to Washington for road contests against the Huskies and Cougars.
vegasinsider.com
Louisville (15-9, 7-12 ATS) at (2) Syracuse (24-1, 15-6 ATS)
The red-hot Orange pursue their 12th consecutive victory when they take on Louisville in a Big East battle at the Carrier Dome.
Syracuse topped UConn 72-67 Wednesday night, falling short as a healthy 10-point home chalk as they squandered most of a 16-point second-half lead, but it has still posted an 8-3 ATS mark during its 11-game win streak. The Orange are racking up 81.6 ppg (seventh nationally) and are the top shooting team in the country (52.7 percent), while holding opponents to 64.2 ppg on just 38.3 percent shooting (13th). Also, Syracuse’s 15-6 ATS mark ranks fifth nationally.
Louisville hasn’t been nearly as consistent as Syracuse, going 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS over its last eight starts, including Thursday’s 74-55 blowout loss at St. John’s as a 5½-point favorite, ending a modest two-game SU uptick. The Cardinals are averaging 78.7 ppg and allowing 69.5 ppg on the year, but in road games, they’re getting outscored by about a 3-pointer per game (75.7-72.6).
Louisville has taken four in a row in this rivalry (3-0-1 ATS), winning and covering in both meetings last year – a 67-57 road victory laying one point and a 76-66 decision giving 7½ points in the Big East tournament championship game. The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six regular-season clashes, the favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the SU winner is on a 5-1-1 ATS run.
The Orange sport positive pointspread streaks of 24-8 overall, 19-7 at home, 15-5 in the Big East, 20-8 after a SU win, 6-0 after a non-cover, 4-0 on Sunday and 20-7 against winning teams. Despite failing to cover in seven of their last nine – all in the Big East – the Cardinals are still 44-19-1 ATS in their last 64 conference contests, but they also shoulder negative ATS streaks of 0-4 on Sunday, 1-5 after a non-cover, 2-6 against winning teams and 2-5 on the road.
The under is 5-2 in Louisville’s last seven Sunday outings, but the over for the Cardinals is on surges of 5-2 after a SU loss and 7-3 after an ATS setback. The over has hit in Syracuse’s last four Sunday games, but the Orange are on “under” streaks of 5-0 overall (all in the Big East), 5-0 after a SU win and 5-0 after a non-cover. Finally, the over is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE
(13) Ohio State (19-6, 12-13 ATS) at Illinois (17-8, 10-14 ATS)
Two of the hottest teams in the Big Ten collide when the Buckeyes travel to face Illinois at Assembly Hall.
Ohio State has won five in a row and eight of its last nine, including Wednesday’s 69-52 rout of Indiana as a 10½-point road favorite, halting a 1-4 ATS skid. During their five-game run, the Buckeyes have outscored foes by 14 ppg (72.4-58.4), shooting a stout 49.6 percent and allowing 42.7 percent shooting. However, on the road this year, OSU averages 63 ppg and gives up 66.4, and it shoots just 31.3 percent from three-point range in opponents’ gyms, while allowing 40.5 percent from long distance.
Illinois has followed a three-game skid with a five-game winning streak of its own, including back-to-back victories over ranked teams in its last two starts. On Feb. 6., the Illini dropped then-No. 5 Michigan State 78-73 as a 1½-point home ‘dog, and they followed up Tuesday night with a 63-56 upset of 11th-ranked Wisconsin as a nine-point road pup. Illinois has averaged 69.4 ppg on sturdy 50.4 percent shooting in the last five games, while allowing 63.0 ppg on 38.9 percent shooting.
Illinois has covered in the last three clashes in this rivalry (2-1 SU), after a four-game SU and ATS run by Ohio State. The Illini swept last year’s two meetings, rolling 67-49 at home as a 7½-point favorite and eking out a 70-68 road win catching 2½ points. Illinois is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home starts against Ohio State, and the road team and the underdog are on identical 4-1 ATS runs in the last five meetings overall. Lastly, the SU winner has cashed in seven of the last eight matchups.
The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five starts against winning teams, but they are in ATS funks of 2-6 on the road, 1-5 on the highway against teams with a winning home record and 3-9 on Sunday. The Illini have cashed in just two of their last seven at home and are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 starts after a spread-cover, but they are on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall (all in the Big Ten), 4-1 following a SU win and 4-1 on Sunday.
Illinois is on “over” runs of 19-7 overall, 11-2 at home, 9-2 after a spread-cover, 5-2 on Sunday and 5-2 in conference play, and the over for Ohio State is on an 8-2 surge coming off an ATS win. The under, though, is 5-2 in the Illini’s last seven following a SU win, 5-2 in the Illini’s last seven against winning teams and 18-7 in the Buckeyes’ last 25 Sunday games. In addition, the total has stayed low in five of the last seven meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tough-Road-Ahead
By SportsPic
The Louisville Cardinals off a 74-55 shellacking at St. John's as +5.5 point favorites have now been on the short side of four straight road games in the Big East. Cardinals 1-6 (2-5 ATS) overall away from Freedom Hall hardwood now face the daunting task of playing one of the hottest teams in college basketball in it's own back yard. Rick Pitino's team unable to get traction in the Big East of late losing five of the past eight (2-6 ATS) could be in a deep hole when all-said-done. Cuse the best shooting team in the nation at 52.7 percent netting a hardy 81.6 PPG paced by Wesley Johnson (16.1) and 3-point sharp shooting Andy Rautins (38.1%) chipping in 10.6 PPG are on a mission. Extending its Big East winning streak to 10 games (6-3-1 ATS) after defeating UCONN 72-67 at home Wednesday, Syracuse winners of fifteen of the past sixteen (11-4-1 ATS) against conference opponents, 17-1 (9-4 ATS) last eighteen at the Carrier Dome defeating foes by 21.3 points per game won't let this one get away. Jim Boeheim will have the troops primed knowing they've lost the last three encounters with Ville' (0-2-1 ATS).
Tips and Trends
UCLA Bruins at USC Trojans
Bruins: The glass is half full for UCLA, as they've won 4 of their past 6 games SU entering tonight's contest. UCLA will be excited to play the Trojans tonight, as they were humiliated at home against them a few weeks ago. The Bruins suffered their worst loss to the Trojans since World War II in that game. UCLA is below .500 this season, standing at 11-12 SU and 9-11 ATS. UCLA is 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in both true road games and neutral court settings. The only profitable trend UCLA has in their favor is when they are listed as the underdog, going 6-5 ATS this season. Despite all their problems this season, the Bruins are also tied for 2nd place in league play with a 6-5 SU record. The Bruins are slowly rounding into shape offensively, with much of the help coming from G Michael Roll and F Reeves Nelson. Roll leads the Bruins in both scoring and assists, averaging 13.6 and 3.7 respectively. Nelson has averaged 15.6 PPG his past 5 games.
Bruins are 5-1 ATS last 6 games following a double digit loss at home.
Over is 9-3-1 last 13 road games.
Key Injuries - F Reeves Nelson (concussion) is probable.
F James Keefe (shoulder) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 59 (SIDE of the Day)
Trojans (-7.5, O/U 115.5): Considering the Trojans won't be playing in postseason play, their games against UCLA became that much more important. UCLA is their biggest rival, and it showed in their 1st matchup earlier this year, as USC beat the Bruins by 21 PTS. After starting the season 2-4 SU, the Trojans have battled back to a SU record of 14-9. USC is 10-3 SU and 4-6-2 ATS at home this season. The Trojans are 3-4 ATS as a single digit home favorite this season. The Trojans are 6-4 ATS since the start of the new year. USC is 6-5 SU in league play, tied for 2nd place with 5 other schools. The Trojans play stellar defense, as they've only allowed 1 opponent to score in the 70's this season out of 23 games. Since the new year, no opponent has scored more than 67 PTS against the Trojans. G Dwight Lewis leads the Trojans in scoring with 13.3 PPG, but only shoots 38% from the field. Only 1 Trojan averages more than 2 APG this season.
Trojans are 2-7 ATS last 9 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.
Under is 7-1 last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage less than .400.
Key Injuries - F Kasey Cunningham (knee) is out.
G Percy Miller (shoulder) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 61