Sunday's Best NCAAB Bet
South Alabama Jaguars at Denver Pioneers (-10)
The Pioneers won’t contend for a national title, but that doesn’t mean the team can’t help fatten bettors bank rolls. Denver is 11-3 SU and 8-4 ATS in lined home games this season, including covering in each of their past five games. Playing at altitude does have some advantages.
"It's good to be back in the driver's seat," Denver junior guard Brian Stafford said. "Our focus is on ourselves. It's not about the other team. It's about doing what we need to do to get better."
The team’s resurgence and defensive burst has been led by freshman Chris Udofia. The forward leads the team in blocks (33) and rebounds per game (4.4) as he uses a 6-foot-6 frame and 7-foot wingspan to create mismatches.
And the Jaguars don’t have a huge margin for error. South Alabama has dropped three straight and seven of 10 overall. The team also is 0-8 ATS in its last eight trips to Denver as the home team is 14-2 ATS in the team’s past 16 meetings.
The team’s defense also isn’t doing it any favors. Over the past three games, the Jaguars are letting opponents shoot an average of 53.8 percent from the floor and score nearly 80 points per game. Not good for a team that won’t be doing much scoring of its own in Colorado.
"It's not that we can't guard," said South Alabama coach Ronnie Arrow. "We just don't do it consistently for 40 minutes."
Pick: Denver
Game of the day: Ohio State at Purdue
Ohio State Buckeyes at Purdue Boilermakers (-1.5, 136)
THE STORY: A Big Ten title race that hasn't been close all season could finally get interesting when No. 3 Ohio State hits the road Sunday afternoon to face No. 11 Purdue in a clash of the league's top teams. A victory by the second-place Boilermakers would close the Buckeyes' lead to one game with four left to play. Purdue will also be looking to avenge its most lopsided defeat of the season, an 87-64 pasting in Columbus Jan. 25. Additionally, the game features the two leading candidates for conference player of the year honors - Purdue senior center JaJuan Johnson and OSU freshman forward Jared Sullinger.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS
ODDS: Purdue opened as a 2-point home favorite and was bet down to 1.5. The total opened at 136 points.
ABOUT PURDUE (21-5, 10-3 Big Ten, 15-8-0 ATS): The Boilermakers have won four of their last five, avenging the lone defeat by topping No. 10 Wisconsin, 70-62, on Wednesday behind 20 points, 10 rebounds and four blocked shots from Johnson. Purdue is seventh nationally in assist-turnover ratio (1.51) and ninth in turnovers per game (10.7). Johnson leads the Big Ten in scoring (20.7 ppg) and blocked shots (2.31), while senior guard E'Twaun Moore is fifth in scoring (17.9). The Boilermakers own a 15-game home winning streak, including a perfect 14-0 mark at Mackey Arena this season.
ABOUT OHIO STATE (25-1, 12-1, 11-12-0 ATS): The Buckeyes rebounded from their first loss of the season, against Wisconsin, by pulling away in the closing minutes for a 71-61 victory over Michigan State Tuesday. Ohio State leads the Big Ten in scoring (77.2) and scoring margin (18.7), shooting percentage (49.5), steals (7.5) and turnover margin (5.81). Sullinger heads an extremely balanced attack with 17.8 points and 10.0 rebounds per game, while three Buckeye guards are scoring in double figures - junior guard William Buford (13.9), senior David Lighty (12.3) and senior Jon Diebler (11.1). Diebler is among the nation's top 3-point shooters, hitting 46.7 percent from long range.
WHO'S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Johnson is averaging 22.8 points over Purdue's last 10 games, scoring 20 or more in nine of those contests ... Buford has 44 points over the last two games. Sullinger had a career-low two rebounds against Michigan State after posting three consecutive double-doubles.
KEY STATISTIC: Purdue has won 38 consecutive games when scoring at least 70 points and is the only team this season to hit that mark against Wisconsin. Ohio State has surrendered 70 or more just twice, going 1-1 in those games.
RECENT HISTORY: Buford led six players in double figures with 19 points and Sullinger added 17 and seven rebounds in the rout earlier this season. Johnson scored 22 points and Moore 16, but the Boilermakers hit just 38 percent from the floor while the Buckeyes shot 55.2 percent, including 11 of 19 from the arc. Purdue has won three of the last five, including a two-game sweep in 2009, but Ohio State defeated the Boilermakers, 70-66, last year in West Lafayette.
LOOKING AHEAD: The Buckeyes return to Columbus for a two-game homestand, hosting Illinois Tuesday and Indiana on Feb. 27. Purdue faces road games at Indiana Wednesday and Michigan State Feb. 27.
LAST WORD: Ohio State has dominated the series when it's been good, posting a 22-4 record against Purdue when ranked in the top-25.
TRENDS:
- Buckeyes are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in Purdue.
- Buckeyes are 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings.
- Underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
Purdue, Ohio State in Big Ten betting clash
By: Willie Bee
Revenge is on the minds of the Purdue Boilermakers, not to mention a chance to beat a second consecutive top-10 team, when they host the Ohio State Buckeyes. Sunday's contest from West Lafayette's Mackey Arena tips at 10 a.m. with CBS televising the matchup.
Purdue (21-5 straight up, 14-7-1 against the spread) beating another top-10 school isn't that big of a stretch since the Boilermakers are 11th in both the coaches and AP rankings. Gaining revenge for a whipping in Columbus nearly four weeks ago might prove to be a different story, however. A 7½-point underdog on the road, Purdue was beaten in just about every facet of the game when the Buckeyes hung a 23-point margin of victory, 87-64, on the Boilers.
Ohio State (25-1 SU, 11-12 ATS) came out smoking and was up by 15 about midway through the first half, eventually taking a 20-point lead into the locker room. The Buckeyes controlled the glass, hit their shots and would open up a 30-point gap over Purdue in the second half.
One factor in Purdue's favor is home-court advantage. The Boilermakers have won 15 consecutive contests at Mackey, including all 14 this season. The most recent was Wednesday's win against Wisconsin, 70-62, as five-point chalk. The Badgers almost seemed assured of a letdown in that game after handing these Buckeyes their one and only defeat last weekend in Madison.
The Boilermakers didn't shoot all that well in the win, which was also a case of exacting revenge for a 66-59 loss on the Badgers' home floor on Feb. 1. Matt Painter's team did take care of the ball on offense, turning it over just four times, and canned 17 of their 19 tosses from the charity stripe.
Ohio State was not intimidated on the West Lafayette hardwood last season, coming away with a 70-66 triumph over the Boilermakers in Jan. 2010 as nine-point underdogs. Thad Matta's troops also bounced right back from their loss at Wisconsin by slapping down Michigan State this past Tuesday, 71-61.
The Buckeyes were challenged by the Spartans for the first 28 minutes of the game before pulling away for the 10-point win that missed covering the 12-point spread. Jon Diebler's marksmanship from the free-throw line (6-of-6) was a key component in the win as were the game-high 23 points scored by William Buford.
Purdue trails Ohio State by two games in the Big Ten standings, and a loss here would all but give the regular season title to the Buckeyes who would have a three-game lead with four to play. Defending their home floor becomes even more critical for the Boilermakers who will be on the road for three of their final four while Ohio State is home for three of its games before the Big Ten Tournament.
Having the crowd behind them is certainly key for the Boilermakers, but they are also going to have to play much better defense than they did in Columbus on Jan. 25 and someone besides JaJuan Johnson has to contribute on offense. Johnson scored 22 of Purdue's 64 points in that game while the rest of the team shot under 33 percent from the field (15-for-46), guard E'Twaun Moore a chief culprit with a 4-for-13 effort.
I expect the defense will be there for Purdue this time, but the offense? I'm not so sure.
Purdue's begins their final two weeks of the regular season on the road next Wednesday in Indiana against the Hoosiers, with that contest followed by a trip to East Lansing next Sunday to face Michigan State. Both of Ohio State's games next week are at home, first on Tuesday versus Illinois and then Sunday against Indiana.
Tips and Trends
Ohio St. Buckeyes at Purdue Boilermakers
BUCKEYES: Ohio St. dominated Purdue earlier this season, as they won by 23 PTS. Today's meeting isn't likely to be anything similar to the 1st meeting. The Buckeyes are 25-1 SU and 11-12 ATS overall this season. Ohio St. is currently ranked 3rd in the nation, but a SU win today will likely put them in 2nd place heading into next week. Ohio St. is 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS on the road this year. The Buckeyes are 1-1 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this season. Freshman sensation F Jared Sullinger leading the Buckeyes with team highs of 17.8 PPG and 10 RPG this season. As long as Ohio St. keeps winning, Sullinger has a fair shot at winning National Player of the Year honors. G William Buford is averaging 14.2 PPG this year, while shooting nearly 45% from the 3 point line. The Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games. Ohio St. is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. The Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. Ohio St. is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Big Ten Conference.
Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS last 13 road games.
Over is 11-5 last 16 games against the Big Ten Conference.
Key Injuries - F J.D. Weatherspoon (eligibility) is out.
Projected Score: 65
BOILERMAKERS: (-1.5, O/U 136) Purdue has been dominant in winning their last 3 games SU. The Boilermakers have beaten Illinois and Wisconsin in their past 2 games leading up to tonight. Purdue is 21-5 SU and ranked #11 in the nation this week. The Boilermakers are an impressive 15-8 ATS this season, one of the most profitable teams ranked in the Top 25. Purdue is a perfect 14-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in home games this season. Purdue is 6-2 ATS as a single digit favorite his year. C JaJuan Johnson has been dominant for the Boilermakers this year, as he's averaging team highs of 20.7 PPG and 7.8 RPG. G E'Twaun Moore is averaging 17.9 PPG this season, while shooting better than 40% from the 3 point line. The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Purdue is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the Big Ten Conference. The Boilermakers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games against a team with a winning road record. Purdue is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. The Boilermakers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.
Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS last 4 home games.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 73 (SIDE of the Day)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils
YELLOW JACKETS: Georgia Tech will at least enter today with a bit of confidence, as they are coming off a rare SU win. The Yellow Jackets beat Chattanooga 62-53 SU four days ago. Georgia Tech will need all the confidence they can muster today, because they've yet to win a true road game this season. The Yellow Jackets are 11-14 SU and 8-12 ATS overall this season. Georgia Tech is 0-8 SU and 1-6 ATS in true road games this year. Georgia Tech is 6-8 ATS as the listed underdog this season, with today representing just the 2nd time this season that they will be the listed double digit underdog. G Iman Shumpert is by far the most indispensable player for Georgia Tech this year. Shumpert is averaging 17.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 3.4 APG this year, all team highs. G Glen Rice Jr. is averaging 14 PPG and 5.6 RPG for the Yellow Jackets this year. The Yellow Jackets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games. Georgia Tech is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Yellow The Jackets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Atlantic Coast Conference. Georgia Tech is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. The Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Yellow Jackets are 1-6 ATS last 7 road games.
Under is 13-3 last 16 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - F Brian Oliver (thumb) is out.
Projected Score: 59
BLUE DEVILS: (-21, O/U 145) Duke has won their past 5 games SU, and has a clear shot at climbing back to the #1 ranking in the nation. All the Blue Devils have to do is beat Georgia Tech tonight at home. Duke has won 6 of the past 7 meetings SU against the Yellow Jackets. The Blue Devils are 24-2 SU and 14-11 ATS overall this year. Duke is a perfect 14-0 SU and 6-7 ATS in home games this year. The Blue Devils are 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 20 PTS or more this season. Duke is averaging 83.2 PPG this year, 7th most in the nation. G Nolan Smith is averaging team highs of 21.4 PPG and 5.4 APG this year. F Kyle Singler is averaging 16.9 PPG and 6.2 RPG this season for Duke. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a losing SU record. Duke is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Atlantic Coast Conference. Duke is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Blue Devils are 10-4-1 ATS last 15 Sunday games.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games against a team with a losing SU record.
Key Injuries - G Kyrie Irving (toe) is out.
Projected Score: 78 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
College Basketball Knowledge
Florida may be without Parsons (leg) for this game; Gators won last four games, three by 4 or less points- they're 4-1 on SEC road, with wins by 6-5-13ot-19 points. SEC home underdogs of more than 7 points are 2-5 vs spread. LSU lost its last nine games (1-7-1 vs spread); they're 1-3-1 as SEC home underdog, losing home games by 27-8-1-11 points.
Denver is 6-1 as Sun Belt home favorite, winning home games by 13-2-9-38-13-27-28 points; home teams covered their last nine games. Double digit home favorites are 4-9 vs spread in Sun Belt games this year. South Alabama is 4-3 as Sun Belt road dog, losing away games by 12-8-11-23-3 points- they played Thursday- tough to prepare for Princeton offense in only two days.
Richmond won four of its last five games, but Spiders are just 1-4 as an A-14 home favorite, winning home games by 12-10-10-12 points, with losses to URI/Xavier. St Bonaventure won four of last five games (5-0 vs spread), with only loss by 2 at Dayton- they covered their last four away games. A-14 home favorites of 8+ points are 10-16 vs spread.
Miami (+4.5) lost 79-72 at Clemson Jan 8; they were -10 on boards, had 8 shots blocked by Tiger squad that shot 50% from floor. Canes are 3-3 at home in ACC- eight of their last nine ACC games were decided by 4 or less points. Tigers are 1-5 on ACC road. ACC home teams are 3-5-1 against the spread in games where the spread is 2 or less points.
Temple (-13) won 72-54 at St Joe's Jan 29, holding Hawks to 38% from floor; Owls won last seven games, last four all by double digits- they are 3-3 as a home favorite. St Joe's won two of its last three games, covered three of last four- they're 3-2 as A-14 road dog, losing away games by 6-16-4-10 points. ACC home favorites of 13+ points are 5-8 vs spread.
NC State won its last two games after 1-7 skid; favorites covered all six of its ACC road games, with losses by 9-13-10-20-24 points. Maryland lost three of its last four games; they're 2-3 at home in ACC, beating Clemson by 2, Wake by 21. Terps covered three of last four games as favorite. Double digit favorites are 10-8 in ACC games, 7-8 at home.
Wisconsin (-3) lost 56-52 at Penn State Jan 29, game Badgers led by 9 at half, but still were outscored 12-2 on foul line. Wisconsin is 6-1 as home favorite in Big 11, winning home games by 8-16-10-9-7-26-4. Penn State is 8-3 vs spread in last 11 games; they're 3-3 as road dog, losing on road by 7-3-1-17-18. Double digit home faves are 5-10 vs spread in Big 11.
Duke won its last five games (4-1 vs spread) since loss at St John's; they are 1-5 as ACC home favorite, winning home games by 11-7-16-16-24-6 points. Georgia Tech lost its last five ACC games (1-4 vs spread); they are 1-3 as ACC road dog, losing its away games by 11-25-8-2-25 points. ACC home favorites of 17+ points are 3-4 against the spread.
Cal's leading scorer Crabbe missed last two games; Bears have now lost four games in row- they shot 58% from floor but lost 86-84 (+6) Jan 20 at UCLA. Bears are 4-3 at home in Pac-10, with last three decided by 4-2-3 points. Underdogs are 11-2-1 in Pac-10 games where spread is less than 3 points. Bruins won their last six games; they're 4-2 on the Pac-10 road, losing by 11 at USC, 11 at Arizona.
Cleveland State won eight of last ten games- they've allowed 72+ points in last four; Vikings are 1-3 vs spread as underdog- this is first time they are dog since Jan 9. Old Dominion won seven if its last eight games; they are 3-1 in last four games as a favorite. CAA home favorites are 5-10 vs spread in non-league games; Horizon road dogs of less than 7 are 7-9.
Ohio State (-7.5) pounded Purdue 87-64 at home Jan 25, making 11-19 on arc, shooting 55% from floor; Buckeyes are 1-4 vs spread in its last five games, losing last road game, at Wisconsin. Home teams are 12-6-1 in Big 11 games where spread is 3 or less points. Purdue won four of its last five games since loss at OSU- they're 7-0 at home in Big 11 play.