Sunday's Best NCAAB Bet
Maryland Terrapins at North Carolina Tar Heels (-6)
Maryland coach Gary Williams believes his only chance to reach the NCAA Tournament is to put the team in the hands of a freshman.
First-year guard Terrell Stoglin is averaging 10.9 points and 3.3 assists for the season, but has been nearly unstoppable over his past five games. With the Terps going 3-2 SU over that span, he has averaged 19.2 points and 6.0 assists.
“It’s the great competitor that thinks he can score against anybody,” Williams said. "He's going to make some mistakes in terms of shot selection. But what he gives you is somebody that wants to be out there."
And Maryland has more than competed in its past five games against the Tar Heels. The Terps are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS, including an upset victory as 18-point underdogs in Chapel Hill three years ago. North Carolina, meanwhile, has failed to cover as a favorite in its last two home games.
North Carolina must find a way to make more 3-pointers if it wants to shell the Terrapins. The Tar Heels are making just 31.7 percent of their threes, which ranks 11th in the ACC. They’ve hit just 16 of 85 (18.8 percent) in their last five games.
Pick: Maryland
Pittsburgh at Louisville: What Bettors Need to Know
Pittsburgh Panthers at Louisville Cardinals (-1, 134.5)
THE STORY: Remember last year's Pittsburgh team, picked to finish ninth in the Big East but wound up with a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament? Louisville has been this year's 2009-10 Panthers, currently tied for third after its preseason eighth-place forecast and overachieving for Rick Pitino.
Rick Pitino has his Cardinals playing great defense.
TV: 2 p.m., CBS
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (21-7, 10-5 Big East, 14-10-1 ATS): Pitino praised the No. 16 Cardinals' stifling defense with good reason after Tuesday's 55-37 victory at Rutgers - one of the toughest road environments in the league. Louisville limited the Scarlet Knights to just 13-for-44 shooting, including 2-of-14 3-point tries. And it wasn't even the lowest total against the Cardinals this season. They held San Francisco, a current third-place team in the WCC, to just 11 second-half points in a 61-35 romp in December. That defensive intensity bodes well against a Pitt team that struggled in its previous road game, a 60-59 loss at St. John's Saturday, in which no starter managed double-digit scoring. The Cardinals also blocked six shots and forced 18 turnovers against Rutgers.
ABOUT PITTSBURGH (25-3, 13-2, 12-11-0 ATS): With No. 6 Pitt's 71-58 victory over West Virginia Thursday night, coach Jamie Dixon tied North Carolina State's Everett Case and Kansas' Roy Williams for most victories in his first eight seasons with 213. The Panthers put together one of their most complete halves in the second against WVU, outscoring the Mountaineers 41-27 and controlling the paint and the perimeter to set up easy layups and second-chance points. Pitt ranks third in the nation at 18 assists per game, and produced assists on 23 of its 27 field goals in the victory. It also marked the 12th straight game the Panthers held their opponent to 66 points or fewer.
WHO'S HOT/WHO'S NOT: Junior forward Nasir Robinson averages 8.8 points, but has liked the number 15 lately for Pitt. Robinson has contributed 15 points in three of the last five games, and added 13 in one of the other two. He's done so on efficient 24-for-39 shooting. Junior guard Kyle Kuric (9.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg) has stepped up both his scoring and rebounding over Louisville's last eight games, posting 15.0 and 5.1 averages, respectively. He had 11 and seven against Rutgers.
KEY STATISTIC: 68.2 and 67.1 – The respective free-throw percentages for Pitt and Louisville. In what could be a chippy game, the edge may go to whichever team gets hot at the line.
RECENT HISTORY: The Panthers prevailed, 82-77, in overtime at home last season. Louisville defeated then-No. 1 Pittsburgh, 69-63, in 2009 the last time they played in Kentucky. The programs have met just nine times and Pitt holds a 5-4 edge.
LOOKING AHEAD: Both teams finish with Wednesday and Saturday games this week. Pitt goes to South Florida and then home to face Villanova, while Louisville welcomes Providence and then travels to West Virginia.
LAST WORD: Below Pitt, Louisville is one of seven teams still jockeying to clinch the other three “double-bye” spots in the Big East Tournament. Also, while the Panthers are a likely No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAAs, the other horde of Big East teams could go anywhere from No. 3 to No. 11, so the Cardinals have much more to play for in this one.
TRENDS:
- Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.
- Cardinals are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 Sunday games.
- Under is 5-1 in Panthers' last six road games.
- Under is 7-2 in Cardinals' last nine home games.
Pittsburgh, Louisville headline Sunday NCAA betting
By: Willie Bee
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, there's a huge Big East battle looming on Sunday's college basketball betting slate.
The outcome of the matchup between the Pittsburgh Panthers and Louisville Cardinals (11 a.m. PT, CBS) means nothing as far as either team's chances of being part of this year's NCAA Tournament. Both the Panthers and Cardinals are assured of an invite to the dance as the Big East looks to push an unprecedented 11 teams into the mix. West Virginia and Marquette are the conference's bubble teams presently.
Still, Sunday's result will help determine seeding for the conference tournament that begins at Madison Square Garden a little more than a week from now. Pittsburgh (25-3 straight up, 12-11 against the spread) can guarantee itself at least a tie for the regular season title in the Big East with a win. With two victories in their last three games, the Panthers can lock up the No. 1 seed for the Big East tourney and that would go a long way to giving Jamie Dixon's bunch a No. 1 slot in the NCAA Tournament.
Louisville (21-7 SU, 14-10-1 ATS) needs a win to help maintain a spot in the top 4 of the conference standings which would give the Cardinals a bye in the first two rounds of the Big East tournament. A loss would leave Rick Pitino's squad with six conference defeats and in a scrum with the likes of Syracuse, Georgetown, Cincinnati and Villanova for one of those two-bye positions.
The Cardinals are coming off consecutive wins on the floor and versus the NCAA odds over UConn and Rutgers. Tuesday's 55-37 triumph at Rutgers, the lowest point total in Big East matchups this season, came with Louisville four-point chalk and marked the third straight 'under' for Pitino's troops.
Only two Cardinals reached double figures in the boxscore, Preston Knowles (14 points) and Kyle Kuric (11), but they didn't really need much more than that to defeat a Scarlett Knights team that shot under 30 percent from the field and connected on just 13 field goals.
Pittsburgh rebounded from its loss to St. John's last Saturday at MSG with a 71-58 pasting of West Virginia on Thursday. Favored by 8½ on their floor at Petersen Events Center, the Panthers overcame a 31-30 halftime deficit with a 17-5 run to open the final 20 minutes of play. Pitt managed to convert 15 of its 23 shots in the second half while holding the Mountaineers to just six field goals in 23 second-half attempts.
The final score fell just short of the 130-point total, the fourth consecutive 'under' for Panthers bettors.
Louisville is a sparkling 17-2 at the KFC Yum! Center this season while the Panthers are 9-1 in true road games, the only defeat to St. John's a week ago by a single point.
The only injury of note is on the Pittsburgh bench where reserve forward Talib Zanna will be out at least the next 3-4 weeks with a brken thumb suffered just prior to the win over West Virginia.
Sunday's meeting is just the 10th between the two schools with Pitt owning a 5-4 edge in the previous nine. Three of the meetings came in the Big East tournament, all three won by the Panthers to give Louisville a 4-2 advantage in regular season matchups.
Pittsburgh was a two-point underdog at home the last time the two got together (Jan. 16, 2010), and came away with an 82-77 victory in overtime, easily 'over' the 136½-point total. A year before that was the last time the two schools went to battle in Louisville, and the Cardinals took that one by a 69-63 count, again as two-point favorites. That meeting failed to reach the 135-point scoreboard figure.
Louisville will remain at home for Wednesday's meeting with Providence, then close out the regular season on the road at West Virginia next Saturday. Pitt stays on the road with a trip to South Florida on Wednesday. The Panthers host Villanova on Saturday to end their regular season slate.
NCAA Betting Preview: Terrapins at Tar Heels
By: Adam Markowitz
ACC betting fans will love to sink their teeth into this fantastic Sunday night showdown at the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, as the North Carolina Tar Heels duke it out with the Maryland Terrapins.
Tip-off from Tobacco Road is set for 4:45 p.m. (ET) and the game will be carried on the Fox Sports family of networks.
Many have already written off the Terps as having no shot of making the NCAA Tournament. Though we do admit that Maryland has a lack of quality wins in the bunch, the prospects of ending the regular season on a five-game winning streak and 10 wins in the ACC makes us believe that there is at least hope to back into the field as an at-large team.
The play of Jordan Williams is going to be of paramount importance. The big man has frustrated some of the best teams in America this year, and he is going to have to be the subject of an upset if there is one brewing. Williams is averaging 17.2 PPG and 11.5 RPG this season, and he is clearly a monster when he gets inside the paint.
His biggest hassle in this one is that North Carolina can throw a ton of bodies at him defensively and make him defend away from the basket. All of the bigs can shoot and shoot from the outside for the Tar Heels, and every step that you take Williams away from the basket is a huge one.
The rest of this team is definitely challenged to find both scoring and rebounding. Dino Gregory is the second best rebounder on this team at 6.0 per game, and he is the only other man averaging more than 3.5 RPG. Terrell Stoglin and Cliff Tucker are both double-digit scorers, but they're the only other ones on the squad and certainly aren't stars like Williams is.
The only team that has beaten North Carolina since January 16 is the Duke Blue Devils, something that, especially on the road, is nothing to be ashamed of. The Tar Heels have really found their stride, and they're moving towards a very high seed in the NCAA Tournament this season.
However, lately the the Heels seem to be having at least some minimal issues with teams on their home court. They struggled mightily offensively to finally put down the Boston College Eagles 48-46 on February 19, while just four days before that, a 12 point win against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, arguably the worst team the ACC has seen in years, was nothing to write home about.
We've already alluded to all of the bigs that the Heels can use to defend Williams. Tyler Zeller is probably the best scorer of the bunch at 14.4 PPG and 7.4 RPG, though John Henson can definitely bang around in the paint at 11.1 PPG and 9.3 RPG. The key is going to be Harrison Barnes, who is up to 13.5 PPG and 5.7 RPG after a dreadful start to the season.
If there is some good news for head coach Gary Williams, it is that his team has played awfully well against these Tar Heels, even here in Chapel Hill. The Terps have won four of the last five meetings against these guys SU, and are 5-0 ATS in this run as well. This includes a big time 82-80 upset as 18 ½-point underdogs at the Dean Smith Center back in 2008 when North Carolina was arguably at its best.
This is the only meeting of the year of these two ACC foes. Maryland won 92-71 last year at the Comcast Center in College Park as six point choices of the oddsmakers.
College Basketball Knowledge
West Virginia is 2-4 in last six games, losing last three road games by 16-11-13 points, scoring just 53.3 ppg; they're 3-4 as Big East favorite, 0-1 on road. Rutgers lost its last three games by 5-4-18 points, scoring only 37 points in last game. Knights covered five of their last six games as a dog. Big East home underdogs of 5 or less points are 8-4-1 vs spread.
Cincinnati won last three games by 9-12-12 points; they're 5-2 at home in Big East, losing to West Virginia/St John's- they're 6-0 if they score 63+ points, 3-6 if they don't. Big East home favorites of 4 or less points are 17-14 vs spread. UConn is 3-5 in its last eight games, losing last two road games by 17 at St John's, 13 at Louisville, allowing 80 ppg.
Dayton (+7.5) lost 81-76 at Xavier Jan 15, getting outscored 25-14 on foul line, forcing only five turnovers. Flyers haven't played for 8 days; they're 3-3 as an A-14 underdog this year. A-14 home underdogs of 5 or less points are 4-9 vs spread. Xavier won last six games, covering four of last five- they're 5-1 on A-14 road, with all five wins by 8+ points.
Louisville is getting healthier, playing better defense- they've won three of last four games, allowing 55.4 ppg- they're 7-0 at home in conference, 4-3 as home favorite. Big East home favorites of 2 or less points are 7-4 vs spread. Pitt's last four road games were decided by total of 12 points; Panthers were held to 51-59 points in their only two conference losses.
Providence is awful on defense, allowing 84.8 ppg during five-game skid, with three of the losses by 3 or less points; Friars are 2-5 as road dog in Big East, losing away games by 7-13-30-7-10-2-18 points. Marquette is 6-3 as Big East favorite, 5-2 at home, winning home games by 5-22-30-6-9 points. Big East double digit home favorites are 10-15 vs spread.
Wisconsin made 12-26 from arc, had only 3 turnovers in its 78-46 win at Northwestern (-1) Jan 23; Badgers won six of last seven games, are 1-4 vs spread in last five- they're 6-2 as Big 11 home favorite, winning home games by 8-16-10-9-7-26-4-10 points. Northwestern is 2-5 as road dog in Big 11 tilts. Big 11 double digit home favorites are 7-11 vs spread.
North Carolina won four in row, nine of last 10 games since horrendous 78-58 loss at Ga Tech Jan 16; Tar Heels are 3-3 as ACC home favorite, winning all six games by 3-10-20-20-14-2 points. UNV allowed average of 58.8 ppg in last four games. Single digit home favorites are 11-16-3 vs spread in ACC games this season. Maryland is 1-2 as an ACC dog.
Washington (-3.5) shot 37%, had 24 turnovers in 87-80 loss in Pullman Jan 30; Huskies are 3-3 as Pac-10 home favorite, winning all six games by 18-31-17-13-32-11 points. Double digit home favorites are 6-8-1 vs spread in Pac-10 this season. Coogs are 2-6 on Pac-10 road, 1-3 as road dog, with their Pac-10 road losses by 9-4-7-26-9-2 points.
Rider won six of last seven games since 80-60 loss (+9) at St Peter's Jan 29; Broncs are 0-8 vs spread in MAAC home games (4-4 SU), winning by 10-14-1-11 points. St Peter's won seven of last 10 games, going 8-2 vs spread- they're 4-4 as MAAC underdog, 2-3 on road. MAAC home favorites of 8 or less points are 7-18 against the spread.
Fairfield shot 55% (starting Fs were 19-24) in 75-71 home win (-3.5) vs Iona Feb 4; Stags won five games in row, 10 of last 11- they won five in row on road, allowing 58.2 ppg. Iona won its last five games, last four by 15-37-20-14 points. Gaels are 4-2-2 as MAAC home fave. MAAC home favorites of 8 or less points are 7-18 vs spread.
Siena is 0-10 vs spread as a MAAC favorite this season; they lost five of last six games, with only win over Maine in Bracket Buster. Marist lost last 12 MAAC games; they're 3-4-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 16-38-14-32-15-17-7 points. Double digit home favorites are 12-10-2 against the spread in MAAC games this year.
Michigan State (+6) lost 86-76 at Purdue Jan 22; Boilers shot 58% from floor that game-- as much as Spartans have struggled, they're still 6-1 at home in Big 11, winning last three at home by 1-18-4 points. Purdue won/covered its last five games-they're 4-3 on Big 11 road. Favorites are 10-4 vs spread in Big 11 games where the spread is less than 3 points.
Ohio State split its last four games after 24-0 start; they won 85-67 at Indiana Dec 31 (-13), shooting 60% from floor, making 13-19 from arc. Indiana lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread); they're 4-3 as Big 11 road dog, losing away games by 4-12-9-14-1-14-4 points. Double digit home favorites are 7-11 vs spread in Big 11 games this season.