Sunday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
The Madness of March doesn’t officially heat up until the next couple weeks when most of the conference tournaments begin but gamblers following college basketball have already been attacking the books. The marathon of the season takes a slower pace on Sunday, with only 16 games on the card, but a handful of them are quality tilts. Let’s take a closer look at four contests that will be featured nationally on television.
Big East Barometer
When Connecticut (17-11 SU, 11-14 ATS) head coach Jim Calhoun returned to the sidelines after a leave of absence for medical reasons, his troops treated him with an embarrassing home loss to Cincinnati (48-60) on Feb. 13. Calhoun ripped up the team for their effort in a classic tirade and apparently his rant worked.
Since the setback, the Huskies have ripped off three straight wins and covers, which included impressive victories as underdogs against Villanova (84-75) and West Virginia (73-62). The offense has averaged 77.7 PPG during this stretch, which is a big improvement over their previous six contests (63.7 PPG).
On Sunday, the Huskies will get another stiff test at home when Louisville (18-10 SU, 8-15 ATS). According to the latest Bracketology, both schools are penciled into the field of 65 for the NCAA Tournament, but they’re each listed as a No. 12 seed.
Rick Pitino and the Cardinals stopped UConn 82-69 on Feb. 1 as 6 ½-point favorites in a wire-to-wire victory from Freedom Hall. Louisville drilled 10 bombs from 3-point land, which helped the combined 151 points easily jump ‘over’ the closing total of 144. Since this win and cover, the Cardinals are 4-2 SU but only 1-5 ATS in their last six.
Playing outside of Louisville (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) hasn’t been kind to Pitino’s kids this year and that includes a 2-4 mark both SU and ATS in Big East. UConn has produced a 14-3 SU record in Stoors this season, but they’ve only managed to go 6-9 ATS.
Total players should make a note that both Louisville and UConn enter this game with 5-1 ‘under’ runs in their last six spots.
Tip-off is set for 2:00 p.m. EST, and CBS will provide national coverage.
Moving forward in West Lafayette
The race for first place in the Big Ten heats up Sunday when Michigan State (21-7 SU, 10-15 ATS) faces Purdue (24-3 SU, 12-12 ATS) from West Lafayette. This will be the second game of a doubleheader on CBS, which starts at 4:00 p.m. EST.
Purdue took a major hit on Tuesday when its best player, Robbie Hummel, went down with a season-ending knee injury in the team’s 59-58 road victory at Minnesota. Brian Edwards broke the story on VI and got some in-depth answers on how the loss of Hummel will affect the betting board in Las Vegas. CLICK HERE.
The Boilermakers will look to sweep the Spartans on Sunday, after capturing a 76-64 win on Feb. 9 in East Lansing as three-point underdogs. Hummel had 15 points in the win, but he was overshadowed by other Purdue standouts, E’Twaun Moore (25 points, 6 assists) and JaJuan Johnson (19 points, 7 rebounds). The other pair of juniors might not get as much publicity as Hummel but they’re just as good.
Including Tuesday’s win against the Golden Gophers, the Boilermakers have now won 10 consecutive games (5-5 ATS), five of them coming at home. Purdue has only suffered one setback on its homecourt and that came on Jan. 12 to Ohio State (66-70).
The Spartans have dealt with their share of injuries this year as well, but head coach Tom Izzo has still managed to right the ship. The school has dropped seven games and five of them have come on road or neutral courts. In Big 10 encounters away from home, the Spartans have gone 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS. The ‘under’ has gone 6-2 in these affairs.
Sticking with totals, the ‘under’ has been the right side in eight of the last 10 meetings between the Spartans and Boilermakers.
Road Tests in the ACC
Clemson at Florida State
Florida State (20-7 SU, 8-14 ATS) and Clemson (19-8 SU, 11-12 ATS) are both expected to earn bids to the upcoming NCAA Tournament but a better seed could be earned by the winner in this battle from Tallahassee.
The Seminoles will be looking to avenge a 77-67 road loss to the Tigers on Feb. 10 as five-point underdogs. Neither team shot lights out from the field in the contest, but Clemson was helped with a 29-of-38 performance form the free throw line. Prior to this defeat, FSU had won three in a row and four of the last five meetings against Clemson.
Another trend that was shaken up in the February meeting was the total. The combined 144 points easily eclipsed the closing number of 132, which saw the ‘over’ cash for just the second time in the last 10 battles between the ‘Noles and Tigers.
Clemson has struggled on the road in ACC play, going 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS, with the lone victory coming at N.C. State (73-70). The defense has given up 70-plus in four of the five setbacks, which included an 88-79 loss at Maryland this past Wednesday.
FSU owns a solid 12-2 record from Tallahassee but it has burnt gamblers with a 2-8 ATS mark. In the 10 games at home that featured a point-spread, the Seminoles have only won by 10 or more twice, the last instance happening two weeks ago against Boston College (62-47).
Fox Sports Network continues its Sunday double-header action with this tip beginning at 5:30 p.m. EST.
Duke at Virginia
The last game on Sunday’s board looks like a serious mismatch when fifth-ranked Duke (24-4 SU, 16-10 ATS) travels to Charlottesville for an ACC road battle against Virginia (14-12 SU, 10-11 ATS).
Mike Krzyzewski’s team hasn’t been great outside of Durham in true road contests (4-4 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) but his team does enter this tilt with seven straight victories and six of them have come by double digits. The Blue Devils have produced a 3-2-2 ATS record during this stretch.
While Duke has been on fire, UVA has been ice cold. Tony Bennett’s first year with the Cavaliers started out well but it’s been anything but lately. The team has dropped six in a row and eight of their last 10 and the two wins came against the two worst schools in the ACC, N.C. State (59-47) and North Carolina (75-60). During the recent losing skid, Virginia is 1-5 ATS and four of the losses have come by 12 or more points.
The head-to-head series between the pair has been lopsided, with Duke capturing nine of the last 10 encounters. The Blue Devils are only 4-5-1 ATS during this stretch but they have covered the last three against the Cavaliers. The ‘under’ is on a 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
If you’re looking for an angle to back Virginia in this situation, you could play the look-ahead spot with Duke traveling to Maryland on Wednesday but that’s a big if. Gametime is set for 7:45 p.m. EST and FSN will provide coverage.
vegasinsider.com
(23) Richmond (22-6, 15-9 ATS) at Xavier (20-7, 17-9 ATS)
The surging Spiders, in search of their ninth straight victory, make the trek to Cincinnati for a key Atlantic 10 battle against Xavier at the Cintas Center.
Richmond has ripped off eight consecutive wins, with five victories coming by double digits. The Spiders have been off since last Saturday, when they edged George Washington 74-70 but came up short as a healthy 9½-point home favorite, ending their 7-0 ATS tear. Richmond has gotten it done with defense this season, ranking in the top-20 in points allowed (60.2 points per game for 15th in the country), shooting percentage (38.7, 16th) and three-point percentage (28.6, 11th).
Xavier has won eight of its last nine games (7-2 ATS), with three road wins included in their current four-game surge (3-1 ATS). On Wednesday at St. Louis, the Musketeers held off a surging Bilikens’ squad 73-71, but fell short as a 4½-point chalk. Xavier puts up 79.4 ppg and allows 68.3, and much like Richmond, its three-point defense is stout, allowing opponents to shoot just 28.2 percent from beyond the arc (fifth in the nation).
The Musketeers were riding a six-game winning streak in this rivalry until last season when Richmond scored an 80-75 home win, cashing as a 5½-point pup. Xavier has cashed in five of the last seven meetings, however the road team has covered the number in seven of the last 10.
Richmond is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight Sunday contests, but it is on several positive ATS streaks, including 7-1 in Atlantic 10 action, 4-0 on the road, 6-1 after a straight-up win and 4-1 against teams with winning records. The Musketeers are on ATS runs of 7-2 overall, 19-6-2 at home, 6-2 in conference play, 15-5-2 after a non-cover and 8-2-1 on Sundays.
The Spiders have stayed below the posted number in eight of 11 overall, four straight road games, four straight after a non-cover and eight of 11 in Atlantic 10 action. Xavier is riding several “over” streaks, including 13-6 overall, 7-3 at home, 11-3 after a straight-up win and 19-7 at home against teams with winning road records. Finally, in this series, the over has been the play in four of the last six overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Louisville (18-10, 8-15 ATS) at UConn (17-11, 12-14 ATS)
The Huskies, desperately trying to play their way back into NCAA contention, go after their fourth straight win when they welcome Big East foe Louisville into the Harry A. Gampel Pavilion in Storrs, Conn.
Connecticut has knocked off a pair of Top-10 teams in the past two weeks, toppling Villanova 84-75 as a 9½-point road ‘dog on Feb. 15 and then scoring a 73-62 home win over West Virginia on Monday, cashing as a 2½-point chalk. Between those two victories, the Huskies crushed Rutgers 76-58 as a six-point chalk. At home, UConn is yielding just 64.4 ppg and limiting the opposition to 38.3 percent shooting.
Louisville is also trying to get back into the postseason picture, but didn’t do itself any favors with a 70-60 home loss to Georgetown on Tuesday as a four-point chalk. The setback halted a three-game winning streak and was the Cardinals third straight non-cover and fifth ATS loss in their last six overall. Rick Pitino’s team has struggled offensively lately, managing just 68 ppg over the last five while allowing 70.4 ppg.
Back on Feb. 1, Louisville scored an 82-69 home win over the Huskies, cashing as a 6½-point home favorite. The Cardinals have cashed in four of the last six meetings with the Huskies dating back to 2006.
Louisville is on ATS slides of 1-4 on Sunday and 3-8 against winning teams, but it is on pointspread upticks of 45-22-2 in Big East play, 29-13-1 on the road and 28-12-1 on the highway against teams with a winning home record. UConn has failed in four of five Sunday games and five of six at home against teams with losing road records, but it has cashed in four of five Big East contests and eight of nine after a straight-up win.
For the Cardinals, the under is on streaks of 5-1 in Big East play, 4-1 on Sunday, 4-1 on the road and 4-0 after a non-cover. The Huskies are riding “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 6-2 at home and 4-0 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(14) Michigan State (21-7, 10-17 ATS) at (3) Purdue (24-3, 12-14-1 ATS)
The Boilermakers will try to extend their winning streak to 11 when they host Michigan State in a key Big Ten matchup inside Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind.
The Spartans have dropped four of their last six overall and six of their last eight at the betting window. The two wins did come on the road with victories and covers at Penn State and Indiana. But Michigan State failed to capitalize on the momentum last Sunday, falling to Ohio State 74-67 as a 3½-point home favorite. The Spartans have won and covered in four of their last six road games and they put up 68.3 ppg on the highway on 48.8 percent shooting.
Purdue has won 10 straight (5-5 ATS) but now must move on with the services of star forward Robbie Hummel, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in Wednesday’s 59-58 road win at Minnesota, with the Boilermakers failing to cover as a three-point road favorites. Purdue has been dominant at home (13-1, 7-7 ATS), averaging 75.3 points a game while allowing just 57.8 points and 39.5 percent shooting. However, Hummel contributed greatly to those numbers as he averaged 16 points and seven rebounds per contest.
Back on Feb. 9, the Boilermakers went to East Lansing, Mich. and scored a 76-64 win at as a three-point road pup. They have now won three of the last four against the Spartans and cashed in six of the last seven overall. Purdue is 4-1 ATS in the last five series clashes at home, all as the favorite, as the chalk has cashed in 12 of the last 16 meetings overall.
Michigan State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven Sunday tip-offs, but otherwise is mired in ATS skids of 2-6 in Big Ten action, 1-4 after a non-cover, 0-6 against winning teams and 2-6 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Boilermakers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against teams with a winning record but 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
The Spartans are on “under” runs of 6-1 on the road, 18-8 in Big Ten action and 8-3 against teams with winning records. It’s been all “unders” for Purdue lately, including 4-0 on Sunday, 4-1 at home, 9-2 against winning teams and 6-2 at home against teams with winning road records. In this series, the “under” is 9-2 in the last 11 clashes, including 4-0 in West Lafayette.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PURDUE and UNDER
College Basketball Wagering Weekend
By: Doug Upstone
For many of the smaller conferences, the regular season concludes this weekend, while the larger leagues are still fighting to determine who the regular season champions will be. This Saturday and Sunday, a large number of these confrontations are on tap in several conferences and college basketball bettors are going to have to bring their A-game to determine winners and spread beaters. Enjoy the fray.
Sunday, Feb. 28
Richmond at Xavier 1:00E ESPN2
It wasn't supposed to be this way in the Atlantic 10, with three teams tied for first place this late in the campaign, especially if the roll call was Richmond, Xavier and Temple. The Spiders (22-6, 15-9 ATS) have given opposing teams arachnophobia, with its crawling defense that permits just 60.1 points per game. Richmond plays mostly upperclassmen, many of whom were on 8-22 squad from three years ago. The Spiders defense really started to get under opponents skin when coach Chris Mooney inserted center Darrius Garrett into starting lineup, being a shot blocking specialist. Who makes Richmond go is 5'11 Kevin Anderson, whose elevated the program to first Top 25 ranking in 24 years. The Spiders are 6-2 ATS this season as creepy underdogs.
Xavier (20-7, 17-9 ATS) was thought to have lost too much talent from last season and not defend their A-10 crown. Taking a wider perspective, new coach Chris Mack took over a program widely successful and placed his personal stamp on in, having senior Jason Love follow his lead. What Musketeers insiders have marveled at is Mack sets expectations for each player on the team and demands they meet them every day. He doesn't holler and scream all the time, but uses several techniques to keep them focused on pushing themselves. Indiana transfer Jordan Crawford has helped this team exceed others expectations, not Xavier's. The Musketeers are 13-0 and 10-2 ATS at the Cintas Center, destroying foes by 23.4 points per game.
Xavier is 7-2 and 6-3 ATS in previous nine matchups.
Michigan State at Purdue 4:00E CBS
The way the Big Ten schedule has played out, every couple of days, a national game of importance is on tap and another is coming on Sunday. Despite a collection of top returning players, it has been anything but easy for Michigan State (21-7, 10-17 ATS). After losing three straight to start February, the Spartans had been showing signs of improving daily (until Ohio State), with guard Kalin Lucas back in control from sprained ankle. Others like Durrell Summers are finally playing smarter and Tom Izzo's crew is 22-10 ATS revenging a same season loss.
A win against Michigan State might well place Purdue (24-3, 13-14 ATS) on the top row to draw a top seed when the tournament bids come out in couple of weeks, however that belief is now clouded with the season ending injury to Robbie Hummel. Like coach Izzo, Matt Painter deserves a boiler room full of credit, riding out tumultuous times in the early part of Big Ten schedule. The Boilermakers stayed the course, fought thru the challenging moments and emerged a mentally tougher club, with road wins at Champaign, East Lansing and Columbus. In Purdue's latest winning streak, center JaJuan Johnson has been a beast and E'Twaun Moore is their leading scorer. However, Hummel was second leading scorer and rebounder on a team not blessed with size. Purdue will have to adjust swiftly and they are 16-5 ATS vs. teams averaging 16 assists a game.
Purdue is 5-1 SU and ATS when Spartans come to Mackey Arena.
Clemson at Florida State 5:30E FSN
The bracketolgists (is there a more worthless job) of college hoops have seven ACC teams making the field of 65 right now. If this information is to be believed, these two teams are fighting to move up toward better seeds, making this a mega-matchup in the ACC. Clemson (19-8, 12-12 ATS) is like Mark McGwire on roids at home (13-2, 9-3 ATS) and about as intimidating as David Spade on the road (4-5 SU and 0-4 ATS as road pooch). The Tigers are in the midst of playing last three of five conference conflicts away from home and are 0-9 ATS in road tilts taking on teams with a winning record.
Most so-called experts believe Florida State (20-7, 8-14 ATS) has to hold serve in last two home games to punch their ticket for NCAA berth. The Seminoles have been a potent squad at the Donald L. Tucker Center at 12-2, but a woeful wager at 2-8 ATS. Florida State has been at or near the top of the defensive field goal percentage numbers all season in the ACC and has the ability to stifle Clemson, who malfunctions when it comes to half court offense. Center Solomon Alabi has been the team's leading scorer (12.0) and he'll have a chance to improve the Noles fortunes.
Clemson is only 3-9 and 6-6 ATS in Tallahassee.
NCAAB News and Notes
Sunday, February 28
Information on the best of Sunday's college basketball games........
Marquette's eight Big East road games were decided by total of only 19 points; underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in those games. Eagles won seven of last eight games, last two in OT; they're 5-0 as a Big East dog. Seton Hall won four of last five games overall, won their last six home games. Big East home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-7 against the spread.
Xavier coach Mack sent out personal appeal for crowd supprt with the students gone for spring break; Musketeers won four in row, seven of last eight games- they're 5-1 as A-14 home favorite, winning home games by 12-4-11-36-48-36 points. Richmond won last eight games; they are 6-2 as a dog. A-14 home faves of less than 8 points are 14-27 vs spread.
UConn (+5.5) lost 82-69 at Louisville Feb 1, turning ball over 17 times, shooting 38%, but they've played better with Calhoun back on bench, winning last three games by 9-18-11 points. Cardinals won five of their last seven games; they're 2-1 as underdog this year. UConn is 3-4 as a home fave. Big East home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-7 vs spread.
LaSalle (+11) lost 64-52 at Temple Jan 30, shooting 29.8% in game that saw Owls go 1-14 from arc. Explorers lost last seven games (1-6 against spread); they're 0-7 vs spread at home, losing home games by 6-2-7-3-11 points. Temple won last four games; they're 7-3 as A-14 favorite, 1-2 on the road. Single digit home underdogs are 6-11 vs spread in A-14 games.
Iowa (+6) won 58-43 at Indiana Jan 24, game that started Hoosiers on its 9-game losing streak; Indiana was 0-9 from arc with 16 turnovers in that game- they're 2-5 as Big 11 underdog, losing away games by 25-24-17-2-28-23 points. Iowa lost seven of last eight games; they're 2-6 SU in its Big 11 home games. Single digit home faves are 13-19 in Big 11.
Florida State (+6) lost 77-67 at Clemson Feb 10, shooting 38% for game, 6-22 from arc; Seminoles are 3-0 since that game, are 1-5 as ACC home favorite, winning at home by 5-2-6-15 points (4-2 SU). Tigers are 1-3 as an ACC road underdog, losing their away games by 21-2-6-11-9 points. Home favorites of 4 or less points are 11-7 vs spread in ACC games.
Virginia lost last six games (1-5 vs spread); they've lost three of last four home games, losing by 5-3-19 points. Duke is now playing for #1 seed in March; they've won last eight games, are 2-3-1 as ACC road favorite, winning road games by 13-3-10-7 points- they won last four on road. Home underdogs of 5+ points are 4-1-1 vs spread in ACC games.
Fairfield (+6.5) lost 77-68 at Niagara Jan 4, outscored 21-10 at foul line while shooting 37% from floor, but Stags clinch #2 seed in tourney with win here, having won four of last five MAAC games. Eagles won five of last six games; they're 0-2 as MAAC road underdog. Home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-9 against the spread in MAAC games.
Loyola (+2.5) won 62-56 at Manhattan Feb 7, last game they've won-- ; Greyhounds lost last four in row, are 0-8 vs spread in conference action. Loyola is 0-4 as MAAC home favorite. Manhattan lost 10 of its last 12 games, but they covered four of last five games as a MAAC road dog. Home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-9 vs spread in MAAC games.
Rider (+3.5) lost 74-58 at Canisius Jan 22, shooting 35% from the floor; Broncs lost five of last seven home games, are 0-5 vs spread as favorite in conference home games. Griffins won three of last four games, are 5-2 as a MAAC road underdog. Home teams are 7-11 vs spread in MAAC games when spread is 3 or less points, no matter who is favored.
St Peter's (+8) won 56-54 in MAAC opener at Iona Dec 4; Peacocks are 4-4 in last eight games, just 1-5 vs spread as MAAC home favorite (5-3 SU at home). Gaels are 2-3 in last five league games. Home teams are 3-7 vs spread in MAAC games when spread is less than 2 points, no matter who is favored. Winner here is #3 seed in MAAC, loser falls to #4.
Weber State clinched top seed in Big Sky tourney Friday; they won first meeting vs Portland State 86-83 Jan 22 (-10.5), shooting 53% in a game they led by 10 at half. Weber is 5-0 as Big Sky road favorite, winning its road games by 15-25-2-4-28 points. Vikings lost four of last five games, are 5-4 as Big Sky dog, losing home games by 7-5-8 points.
First game for Purdue since star Hummel tore ACL; Boilers won last 10 games, but played in Minnesota Wednesday, while Michigan State has not played in a week. Purdue (+2.5) won 76-64 in East Lansing Feb 9, they're 3-4 as Big 11 home favorite. State lost four of last six games. Home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-8 vs spread in Big 11 games.