NCAAB News and Notes Sunday 3/12

SEC Tournament: Florida vs. Kentucky Preview and Pick

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators (+2)

THE STORY: Kentucky tries to repeat as SEC tournament champion - and win its 28th conference title - when the No. 16 Wildcats face No. 12 Florida in Sunday’s final in Atlanta. Both teams were impressive in the semifinals as Kentucky dispatched Alabama and Florida stormed past Vanderbilt. Florida is seeking its fourth SEC title after victories from 2005-07. Florida and Kentucky finished 1-2 in the SEC East.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ABC

ODDS: The Wildcats opened as low as a pick, but that number climbed to -1.5 and -2 following Saturday's SEC semifinals.

ABOUT KENTUCKY (24-8): The Wildcats raced to a 16-point halftime lead in their easy 72-58 victory over Alabama in the semifinals. Kentucky, which put five players in double figures, has won five straight and appears to be peaking at the right time. Point guard Brandon Knight had 12 points and seven assists while playing 38 minutes, and DeAndre Liggins came off the bench to score 14 points and hit all three of his 3-point tries. However, Liggins and fellow guard Doron Lamb, who led Kentucky with 15 points, both left with ankle injuries late in the game. Liggins was able to jog off and is probable, but Lamb had to be helped off and is doubtful. The Wildcats start three freshmen, including SEC Freshman of the Year Terrence Jones. The 6-8 forward averaged 17.1 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in the regular season and led the SEC with 11 double-doubles.

ABOUT FLORIDA (25-6): The Gators have won 10 of 11 after coming back to beat Vanderbilt 77-66 in the semifinals. The backcourt of Kenny Boynton (24 points) and Erving Walker (17 points) took over the game late, and SEC Player of the Year Chandler Parsons finished with 16 points and nine rebounds. Florida entered the tournament as a top seed after winning the third outright SEC regular-season title in school history. The Gators accomplished that feat primarily by going 8-2 on the road. The Gators got hot once they started running their offense through center Vernon Macklin, who ranks second in the SEC in field-goal percentage. Macklin’s emergence has provided good looks for Boynton, Walker and Parsons, all of whom average in double figures.

HEAD-TO-HEAD: Kentucky started its five-game win streak with a 76-68 home win over the Gators on Feb. 26. Darius Miller scored a career-high 24 points, and Brandon Knight had 16 points, six assists and no turnovers. In the first meeting, Knight came up short on a final 3-pointer as Florida survived 70-68 in Gainesville. The Gators won thanks to 18-of-22 shooting from the foul line and Parsons’ 17-point, 12-rebound effort.
Florida has won nine of the past 14 meetings.

UP NEXT: A Florida win would ensure the Gators of being no worse than a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament. Kentucky could end up anywhere from a No. 3 to a No. 5 seed, depending on Sunday's outcome.

TRENDS:

- Wildcats are 1-4-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
- Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as favorites of 0.5-6.5.
- Gators are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.
- Over is 7-0 in Gators last seven overall.
- Over is 6-2-1 in Wildcats last nine games following a ATS win.

PREDICTION: Florida 78, Kentucky 74

Big Ten Tournament: Ohio State vs. Penn State Preview and Pick

THE STORY: Top-ranked Ohio State seeks a second straight Big Ten tournament title and an overall No. 1 seed for the upcoming NCAA tournament when it plays surprising Penn State on Sunday. The Buckeyes, who won two earlier meetings against the Lions, are playing in their third straight title game and are attempting to become only the second team to win in consecutive seasons (Michigan, 1999-2000). Talor Battle’s 3-point binge in Saturday’s 61-48 semifinal win against Michigan State carried Penn State to its first Big Ten tournament final, and may have locked up the Lions’ first NCAA tournament berth in 10 years.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

ODDS: Ohio State opened as high as a 10.5-point favorite following Saturday's Big Ten semifinals.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (31-2): Many feel the Buckeyes are the favorite to win the national title because of their balance. That was on display Saturday as Big Ten Freshman of the Year Jared Sullinger had 14 points and 13 rebounds, and wings Jon Diebler and William Buford added 16 points apiece as Ohio State used 11-0 and 16-0 runs to pull out a 68-61 semifinal win over Michigan. Sullinger, who was double-teamed on the low block by the smaller Wolverines all game, shot 5 of 13 from the floor and 4 of 10 from the foul line. The Buckeyes survived a major scare in the quarterfinal before putting away Northwestern 67-61 in overtime.

ABOUT PENN STATE (19-13): The Lions won the NIT two seasons ago before stumbling to an 11-20 record last season, including a Big Ten-worst 3-15. The Lions looked strong early in conference play this season after wins against ranked Illinois and Michigan State before slumping. However, they’re recovered to win four straight, five of six and seven of nine. Battle, who has 2,167 career points, drained four 3-pointers to stretch a one-point lead to 42-33 Saturday, and the Spartans couldn’t recover. The senior sharpshooter finished with 25 points, seven rebounds and three assists, and got plenty of help from sophomore backcourt mate Tim Frazier, who averages five points per game. Frazier, the lone non-senior starter, scored a career-high 22 points on 9-of-13 shooting and added eight rebounds and seven assists. Battle, who shot 3 of 18 in the Lions’ 36-33 quarterfinal win Friday over Wisconsin, shot 7 of 16 in this one, including 6 of 11 from the arc.

HEAD-TO-HEAD: Sullinger converted two three-point plays in the final minute to provide Ohio State a 69-66 home win Jan. 15. Sullinger finished with 19 points as did fellow freshman Aaron Craft. Battle was held to 15 points on 5-of-17 shooting, including 1 of 10 from the arc. David Jackson led the Lions with 19. The Buckeyes got a school-record 10 3-pointers in 12 attempts from Diebler - he missed his first and last attempt - in an 82-61 demolition March 1 in Happy Valley. He finished with a career-high 30 points. Sullinger had 10 points and 10 rebounds. Battle led the Lions with 18 in his final home game.

UP NEXT: Win or lose, Ohio State is expected to receive a No. 1 seed, while Penn State may have already done enough to save coach Ed DeChellis' job with an NCAA bid.

TRENDS:

- Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
- Nittany Lions are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
- Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five neutral site games as favorites.
- Under is 7-3 in Nittany Lions' last 10 neutral site games.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Buckeyes' last seven overall.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 67, Penn State 56

Long shot Penn State faces Buckeyes
By: Willie Bee

It's certainly not the Big Ten Championship matchup everyone expected.

The top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes, a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament now secure, will be the anticipated half of Sunday's contest at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis (12:30 p.m. PT, CBS). The other half will be the Penn State Nittany Lions who will be making their first-ever appearance in the final of the conference tourney.

Penn State (19-13 straight up, 17-11 against the spread) became an unlikely participant in the game courtesy of a 61-48 triumph over Michigan State in Saturday's second conference semifinal contest. It was the third consecutive win during the tournament for the ninth-seeded Nittany Lions who covered all three. They were 3½-point underdogs in Saturday's victory over the Spartans and getting 7½ when they hung a 36-33 final on Wisconsin in one of the worst overall displays of offense in recent college history.

All three of Penn State's tournament games have stayed below the number, and by comfortable margins. The opening round win against Indiana finished 13 points below the 129-point total with Saturday's game 20½ shy of the NCAA odds. Friday's game versus the Badgers would've been an 'under' if the teams had played a half-dozen overtime periods.

The Nittany Lions used a 13-2 run in the first half against Michigan State to climb out of an early hole and send the teams into halftime knotted at 26. By the time the Spartans had scored their first 12 points of the second half, PSU guard Talor Battle had 14 himself in the half on his way to a game-high 25. Tim Frazier added 22 to the Lions' attack on 9-of-13 shooting.

Just before Penn State and Michigan State took the floor, Ohio State (31-2 SU, 15-15 ATS) coasted past Michigan in its semifinal, 68-61, as 10-point chalk. The Buckeyes built a 17-point advantage with a little less than five minutes to go on an Aaron Craft free throw before the Wolverines closed on a 16-7 run to beat the spread.

'Under' bettors were rewarded with the final score staying just under the 129½-point total. Both of OSU's tourney games have gone to low-side ticketholders after the Buckeyes closed the regular season on a 5-0 run to the high side.

Ohio State's last eight points in the game came from the charity stripe, but the team missed 10 of 23 free throws on the afternoon. Buckeyes forward Jared Sullinger recorded a double-double in the contest, scoring 14 and grabbing 13 boards, six off the offensive glass, but it was not a great day overall. The big freshman was just 5-of-13 from the field and 4-of-10 from the line a day after he converted on 16-of-18 freebies in the 67-61 overtime win versus Northwestern.

Sullinger enters Sunday's title tilt having scored on just 7-of-25 shots from the field in the tournament games against Northwestern and Michigan combined.

Only Iowa had longer odds than Penn State to win the Big Ten when futures rolled out last October. The Nittany Lions were 18/1 with Ohio State and Michigan State 5/2 co-favorites after Purdue lost Robbie Hummel to a season-ending injury. A Buckeyes, Spartans matchup on Sunday would've validated preseason prognosticators despite Michigan State not really living up to their expectations.

As long as their odds were to begin the season, the Nittany Lions likely face longer odds in this game. Ohio State beat Penn State twice during the regular season to run the current string to 14 consecutive Buckeyes wins in the series. PSU's last win against OSU was at home in Jan. 2004.

The Lions gave Ohio State all it could handle in Columbus on Jan. 15 in a 69-66 loss as huge 17½ underdogs with the Buckeyes covering in State College on March 1 as 6½-point road chalk, 82-61. Both regular season games went 'over.'

Big Ten Championship
By Judd Hall

If I were to tell you that the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions were playing for the Big Ten championship, the initial thought would be football. That isn’t the case on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. EDT on CBS as they tussle in Indianapolis for the automatic berth into the NCAA tournament.

The initial opening line at most sportsbooks has Ohio State (31-2 straight up, 14-14 against the spread) as a 10½-point favorite and a total of 128. Bettors that want to take the Nittany Lions for the improbable upset can expect a plus-450 (risk $100 to win $450) return on their investment.

The Bucks are making it to their third straight conference title game on the back of some close calls. Northwestern gave them all they could handle in the quarterfinals, then Michigan made the semifinals a lot closer than they needed to be. Ohio State was a double-digit favorite in both contests and failed to cover on both occasions. We shouldn’t be shocked by that by this point now that Thad Matta’s team is now 18-0 SU, but just 6-12 ATS when posted as a double-digit favorite.

Perhaps we should have seen this coming from OSU given how the whole tourney has gone for the favorites. Being named the “chalk” in the Big Ten tournament has been akin to having leprosy. Favorites are 4-5 SU and a deplorable 1-8 ATS. The ‘under’ has cashed in at a healthy clip, going 6-1-2 during this year’s event.

Despite the failures in making their backers happy, the Buckeyes still have one of the best players in the nation. Jared Sullinger proved he was hard to be stopped on Saturday afternoon by scoring 14 points and 13 rebounds against the Wolverines. He also poured in 20 points and 18 boards against Northwestern the day before. However, most of that scoring came in overtime with 10 free throws that Sullinger connected on.

Penn State (19-13, 17-11 ATS) knew that it was playing for its NCAA tournament life before coming into the league’s tourney. The Nittany Lions have responded by beating Indiana in the first round and Wisconsin in the quarterfinal contest that made you yearn to watch paint dry. PSU cemented its first trip to the title game with a 61-48 win over the Spartans as a 3 ½-point pup on Saturday afternoon. Tim Frazier helped the Nittany Lions’ cause with 22 points, eight rebounds and six helpers. Talor Battle bounced back after floundering the night before against Wisky’s defense with 25 points and seven boards.

Ohio State swept the season series SU, but the Nittany Lions were able to cover as 17 ½-point road pups in a 69-66 decision in Columbus on Jan. 15. Gamblers should be keen to taking Penn State at the betting window as while they’ve not won any of the last nine meetings, they have covered the number in five of them. The ‘over’ has gone on a nice 5-0 run in the past five head-to-head battles.

Penn State would be just the second sixth-place team to win the tournament. The first one to do it was Iowa in a 63-61 win over the Hoosiers in the 2001 title game.

Even though this year’s tournament has been for the ‘dogs, the title game is all about the favorites. Teams that are favored in the Big Ten title game since 2001 have gone 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS. The ‘under’ holds a 6-4 advantage as well.

vegasinsider.com

College Basketball Knowledge

ACC Tournament (Greensboro)

Its been eight years since UNC-Duke met in ACC tournament. Teams split two meetings this year, but Carolina led both games at halftime by double digit margin. Duke won this tournament last two years- they've got eight straight tourney wins. Tar Heels were down double digits last two days in second half, but were bailed out by freshmen. Higher seed won the ACC final in each of the last six tournaments.

SEC Tournament (Atlanta)

Kentucky (-1) lost 70-68 at Florida Feb 5, then won rematch 76-68 (-5) at home three weeks later; Wildcats won seven of their last eight games, are 5-7-1 vs spread in its last 13 games when favored- they made 9-20 from arc vs Alabama Saturday, leading by 16 at half in easy win. Gators won 10 of their last 11 games. Lower-seeded team won two of last three SEC title games, with last two decided by a total of four points.

Atlantic 14 Tournament (Atlantic City)

Dayton can steal bid with win here, so all of Anerica is rooting for the Spiders, who won 70-61 (+1.5) at Dayton Jan 25, making 8-15 from arc while Flyers shot just 34.4% from floor. Dayton won last two days by combined total of four points- they've covered four of last five games as underdogs. Higher-seeded team won last four A-14 finals, with last three decided by 5-5-4 points. Richmond lost in finals here last March.

Big 11 Tournament (Indianapolis)

Ohio State (-17) nipped Penn State 69-66 at home Jan 15, then came to Penn State and won 82-61 (-6) March 1. PSU held Spartans to 32% in upset win yesterday- they're in uncharted territory here. Buckeyes are 2-0 in Big 11 finals last four years, winning by 17-29 points; higher-seed won last four Big 11 finals, with three wins by 13+ points. Ohio State is 4-2 vs spread in its last six games as a favorite.

ACC Finals, UNC vs. Duke
By Brian Edwards

Along Tobacco Road, this is how they like to do it -- one game at Cameron Indoor Stadium, one at the Dean Dome and then the season trilogy in the finals of the ACC Tournament. That’s the exact scenario that’ll play out this afternoon at Greensboro Coliseum where Duke and North Carolina will collide in the finals of the ACC Tournament.

Most books opened Duke (29-4 straight up, 18-14 against the spread) as a three-point favorite. As of early this morning, most spots had the Blue Devils as 3½ or four-point favorites with a total of 145½. Bettors can take UNC on the money line for a plus-150 return (risk $100 to win $150).

Duke was in control from start to finish in Saturday’s semifinal victory over Va. Tech by a 74-60 score. The Blue Devils took the cash as 7 ½-point favorites thanks to Nolan Smith’s 27-point effort. Smith, who sustained a toe injury the previous night in a win over Maryland, showed no signs of injury whatsoever.

North Carolina (26-6 SU, 15-13-1 ATS) played from behind for a second straight day on Saturday, needing to rally to force overtime and then capture a 92-87 win over Clemson as a five-point favorite. The 179 combined points easily went ‘over’ the 132½-point total.

Harrison Barnes was the catalyst in the comeback win, scoring a career-high 40 points on 12-of-17 shooting from the field. John Henson added 18 points and 11 rebounds.

When these teams met in the regular-season finale in Chapel Hill, UNC dominated its arch rival in an 81-67 triumph as a 1½-point favorite. Kendall Marshall led the winners with 15 points and 11 assists to offset Smith’s game-high 30 points. The ‘under’ cashed for the fifth consecutive time in the history of this rivalry.

Duke came out on top in come-from-behind fashion in the first encounter. Trailing by 14 at halftime, the Blue Devils rallied to collect a 79-73 win. However, UNC backers still cashed tickets comfortably as a 10-point underdog.

Tip-off is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

vegasinsider.com.

SEC Finals, UF vs. UK
By Brian Edwards

For the first time since it won the national championship in 2007, Florida (26-6 straight up, 14-13-1 against the spread) is back in the SEC Tournament finals. The Gators overcame a 12-point deficit in the second half thanks to the hot shooting of Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker, who were the catalysts in Saturday’s 77-66 victory over Vanderbilt in a semifinal showdown at the Georgia Dome.

Walker was the first to catch fire, scoring 12 points in a stretch of just more than four minutes to trim Vandy’s lead from 12 to one at the 13:59 mark of the second half. With the game tied at 57-57, Boynton buried a 3-pointer and the Gators wouldn’t relinquish the lead from there. They covered the number as three-point favorites, while the 143 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 140-point total.

Boynton finished with a game-high 24 points, getting 13 of those in the final eight minutes. Not only that, but the sophomore guard was the main defender against John Jenkins, who was stymied into an abysmal 3-of-15 shooting performance.

With a 65-61 advantage, Walker delivered the dagger. Leaking out ahead of the defense, Boynton found the Bronx product in the corner and he buried a trifecta for a seven-point cushion. Chandler Parsons was also in the mix plenty, tallying 16 points, nine rebounds and three assists.

Kentucky (24-8 SU, 12-14-1 ATS) advanced to the SEC finals for the second straight season by punishing Alabama by a 72-58 count as a 6½-point favorite. The Wildcats led by 16 at intermission and by more than 20 for most of the second half.

However, in a seven-second span during the last two minutes, DeAndre Liggins and Doron Lamb both turned their ankles. Lamb seemed to get the worst of it, leaving his status for Sunday as ‘questionable.’

Lamb scored a team-high 15 points for the ‘Cats, who also got 14 points and 10 rebounds from Josh Harrelson. Brandon Knight broke the game open by scoring 10 consecutive points during one span. Knight finished with 12 points and seven assists.

UF and UK split a pair of regular-season meetings with both teams winning at home. In a Feb. 5 encounter at the O-Dome in Gainesville, the Gators won a 70-68 decision as one-point underdogs. Parsons led the way for the winners with 17 points, 12 rebounds and five assists. Knight had a game-high 24 points in the losing effort.

The rematch at Rupp Arena took place on Feb. 26 in Lexington, with Kentucky capturing a 76-68 win as an eight-point home favorite at most books. The 144 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 137-point tally.

Darius Miller scored a career-high 24 points to pace the ‘Cats, who also got 16 points and six assists from Knight. Lamb scored 14 points on 6-of-9 shooting from the field. Boynton had a team-high 21 points for UF, while Parsons finished with 15 points, eight rebounds and seven assists.

The ‘over’ is on an incredible run in Florida games, hitting in seven straight and nine of its last 10. For the season, the Gators have seen the ‘over’ go 17-10 overall. Meanwhile, UK has watched the ‘under’ cash at a 14-12 overall clip.

As of early Saturday night, most books were listing Kentucky as a two-point ‘chalk.’ Tip-off in Atlanta is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

UK is a perfect 5-0 in SEC Tournament games on John Calipari’s watch.

Vandy hasn’t been to the finals of the SEC Tournament since 1951.

Florida has been dynamite in the underdog role this year, compiling a 6-0-1 spread record. What's even more impressive is the fact that the Gators have won outright six times in seven games as underdogs.

According to the Jackson Clarion-Ledger, Ole Miss AD Pete Boone indicated that head coach Andy Kennedy would return for a sixth season in Oxford. The Rebels will find out if they made the NIT field by 8:00 p.m. Eastern tonight.

Boston U. is going to the NCAA Tournament for the seventh time and the first time since 2002 after beating Stony Brook 56-54 in the finals of Saturday’s America East Conference Tournament.

Alabama did hook up its backers for halftime bets. Trailing by 16 at intermission, the Tide was a 1½-point favorite for second-half wagers. A meaningless bucket in the final seconds gave ‘Bama backers a winner.

vegasinsider.com.