Championship Tip Sheet
By Chris David
Selection Sunday has arrived and the field of 65 for the NCAA Tournament will be announced at 6:00 p.m. EST. Before the brackets are announced, there are still four conference tournaments to be played and the winner in each will receive automatic bids. Before you delve into the matchups, be sure to stay abreast with the results for Championship Week.
ACC Championship
The ACC Tournament has watched the underdogs go 9-0-1 against the spread through the first 10 games. The favorites have gone 4-6 straight up over this span. Despite those strong trends, oddsmakers have still made Duke (28-5 SU, 18-12 ATS) a solid 9 ½-point favorite over Georgia Tech (22-11 SU, 14-12 ATS) in the championship for Sunday.
Duke was tested again Saturday but it eventually rallied past Miami and held on for a 77-74 victory. The Blue Devils had a couple chances to pull away in the second but the Hurricanes held on to cover as 11 ½-point underdogs. The combined 151 points easily eclipsed the closing number of 132. Even though this game went ‘over’ the total, Duke has seen seven of previous nine contests go ‘under.’
Georgia Tech entered Saturday’s battle against N.C. State off an impressive 69-64 win over Maryland on Friday. Sure enough, the Yellow Jackets had a letdown and barely beat N.C. State 57-54 in the semifinals. G-Tech failed to cover as a four-point favorite and the 111 combined points never threatened the closing total of 128.
The Blue Devils and Yellow Jackets split the regular season series, with the home team winning and covering each contest. The ‘over’ hit in the encounter from Durham, but the previous nine all went ‘under’ the number.
Head coach Mike Krzyzewski and the Blue Devils have won eight of the last 11 ACC Tournaments, including last year’s victory in the final against Florida State, 79-69. Of those eight wins, five have come by double digits. Georgia Tech hasn’t played in the championship game since 2005, when the school lost to Duke (64-69).
ESPN offers coverage of this game at 1:00 p.m. EST.
A10 Championship
Will Temple (28-5 SU, 22-11 ATS) win its eighth overall and third straight A-10 Championship on Sunday? The Owls came into Atlantic City with a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS) and the club hasn’t let up at all. Temple ripped St. Bonaventure (69-51) in the quarterfinals before coasting past Rhode Island (57-44) yesterday in the semis.
Temple came into Saturday’s match with the league's best defense (56.8 points) and it outperformed itself. The effort has turned out a lot of low-scoring affairs, which has put together a 5-1 ‘under’ run.
The Owls only have five losses on the year but one of them came against today’s opponent, Richmond (26-7 SU, 18-10 ATS). The Spiders stopped Xavier 89-85 in Saturday’s other conference semifinals. Richmond trailed for the majority of the game but forced overtime and eventually toppled the Musketeers in the extra session.
Richmond beat Temple 71-54 at home on Feb. 6 as a 1 ½-point home favorite. The game down to shooting, as the Owls connected on 31 percent while the Spiders hit 58% of their shots, including a 9-of-16 spot from 3-point land.
Most books have Temple listed as a three-point favorite, while the total is sitting at 115. Gamblers expecting an outright win by Richmond can take the money-line price of plus-140 (Bet $100 to win $140).
Tip-off for this contest starts at 1:00 p.m. EST and CBS will provide coverage.
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Big XII Championship
By Judd Hall
Rivalries are just one of many things that make college sports so entertaining. Put one of those rivalries in a championship game and you have something pretty special. We’re getting something special as the Wildcats and Jayhawks do battle at 6:00 p.m. EST on ESPN for the Big XII championship.
Kansas (31-2 straight up, 13-16-1 against the spread) comes into this contest with the expectations of being this far. After all, the Jayhawks have been the top-ranked team in the nation for almost two-thirds of the season.
Bill Self’s starting crew is the perfect mesh of youth and experience. Senior guard Sherron Collins anchors a unit that features freshman Xavier Henry, plus sophomores Tyshawn Taylor, Marcus Morris and junior Cole Aldrich.
The result of that lineup for Kansas is an offense that is fifth in the nation in scoring (82.2 points per game), 56th in scoring defense (63.7 PPG) and second nationally in defensive field goal percentage (37.7).
As the Jayhawks found themselves clicking to close out the regular season, gamblers have been cashing in for a nice profit. That’s because KU has posted a 3-1 ATS mark in its final four contests with the ‘under’ going 2-1-1.
Any team will be able to help the better degenerates out there when you have guys like Collins lead with 26 points against Texas A&M as the Jayhawks won 79-66 as 9 ½-point favorites on Friday evening. Henry did his part with 15 points against the Aggies, while Aldrich cleaned the glass like a top-shelf hotel maid for nine rebounds.
I don’t want to say a game won’t mean anything towards its tourney chances, but this game means nothing for KU. The Jayhawks are already penciled in as a No. 1 seed for the NCAA Tournament and most likely the top seed for the whole thing.
While the Jayhawks are the national darlings, Kansas State’s (26-6 SU, 18-8-1 ATS) inferiority complex grows. Frank Martin’s Wildcats are currently ranked ninth on the Associated Press poll and finished just behind KU in the Big XII regular season standings.
The Wildcats have found themselves in the hunt for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament because of having one of the more veteran starting lineups in the country. Jacob Pullen anchors this unit with 19.1 PPG and a beard that would make Merlin Olsen send him some flowers from the next ethereal plane. Denis Clemente has been a strong producer for K-State with 16.2 PPG for the season.
K-State has been a solid wager for the gambling public by going 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven contests. Bettors have been able to cash in on the ‘over’ with the ‘Cats as it is on a 3-0 run.
The Wildcats don’t have any problems about getting into the Big Dance. What is on the line for them is a potential No. 1 seed should they win. Of course, they’re fighting with the likes of Kentucky and Ohio State for that coveted station in the brackets.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Jayhawks as five-point favorites with a total of 146.
This year Kansas won both matchups, but covered in just one of those tilts. In fact, the head-to-head has been slanted squarely to the Jayhawks. KU is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last ten contests between these intrastate rivals.
The Jayhawks have been favored in every game they’ve had on the board this season, going 28-2 SU and 13-16-1 ATS. The ‘under’ has gone 14-12-1 in that stretch as well.
Being an underdog is relatively foreign territory for K-State since they’ve only been in this position five times this season. The Wildcats went 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in that spot, with the ‘over’ going 3-2.
As far as the tournament history goes, this is a favorite’s championship game. In the 13 matchups, the faves are 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS. The ‘under’ has gone 9-4 in those contests.
This is Kansas State’s first trip to the big game, but the Jayhawks’ eighth time on this stage. Kansas won six of its first seven trips to the title game, covering in five of those battles.
vegasinsider.com
SEC Tournament: Championship Preview and Pick
By TERRY MASSEY
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-7.5, 138.5), 1 p.m.
The Wildcats (31-2) flexed their muscles in Saturday's 74-45 blowout victory over Tennessee. And we're not just talking about the "John Wall Dance".
The freshman scored in double digits again with 14 points and added nine assists, finally getting classmate DeMarcus Cousins involved after a couple of letdowns. Cousins was a force, scoring 19 points and pulling down 15 rebounds, which could be bad news for the Bulldogs (23-9).
Mississippi State is the defending tournament champion and the Bulldogs were solid in defeating Vanderbilt 62-52 in Saturday's other semifinal. But they catch a red-hot Kentucky team at a bad time. Fortunately for the Bulldogs, they probably played their way into the NCAA Tournament by winning three games this week.
Mississippi State got a strong team effort. Barry Stewart scored 14 and Dee Bost, Jarvis Varnado and Phil Turner added 11 points apiece, but they don't have the horses to run with Kentucky. The Wildcats won the lone meeting between these two teams 81-75 in overtime and outrebounded the host Bulldogs 49-29 in that contest.
Bettors should take a look at the under in light of players' complaints about "tight rims" at Bridgestone Arena, and it's not just sour grapes from poor shooters. The under is 5-4-1 in the tourney so far and entering Saturday's games teams had converted just 30 percent from 3-point range after shooting 34 percent during the regular season.
Kentucky's Eric Bledsoe was one of the chief complaintants after going 0-for-4 from 3-point range Friday but he rebounded by going 5-for-8 Saturday. All the other shooters in the semifinals were a combined 17-for-63 (26.9 percent) from the arc Saturday.
"The rims, they're so tight," Bledsoe told the Tennessean Friday. "Every time I shot the ball, they would like rim in and out. I was terrible in shootaround today because every time I shot it, it would circle around and pop right back out."
The goals at Bridgestone are in their 13th year of use, although arena officials say the rims have been replaced since that time. The SEC requested they be replaced before the tournament to no avail.
Prediction: Kentucky 72, Mississippi State 60
ACC Tournament: Championship Preview and Pick
By DAVE CAREY
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Duke Blue Devils, 1 p.m.
Another year, another ACC title game for the Blue Devils.
Duke continued to chase its 19th tourney title by handling upstart Miami, 77-74 Saturday afternoon. The boys from Durham have had a pretty smooth ride into the championship game, downing Virginia by 11 in their opening game before pulling away late from the Hurricanes.
As the top seed in the ACC tournament, Duke has won 15 of its past 16 games and is 36-8 all-time.
The key for Duke has been the fantastic play of Kyle Singler, who had 18 points and 11 rebounds against the Cavaliers before throwing up 27 points and eight rebounds against Miami. The 6-foot-8, 230-pounder has been the catalyst for the team this year, averaging 17.2 points and 6.7 boards per game.
"That boy is a baller," Duke forward Lance Thomas told the media. “Kyle is one of the top players I have ever played with. When he plays like that we have a great chance to beat anybody."
But Singler will have to play his best game of the year against the one-man wrecking crew of Georgia Tech forward Derrick Favors.
The future NBA lottery pick had 18 points, nine rebounds and five blocks in an opening win over UNC, followed by 11 points and 11 rebounds and three blocks against Maryland and carried over this momentum by posting 17 points, eight rebounds and a pair of blocks in a 57-54 win over a scrappy N.C. State squad Saturday.
The presence of Favors in the middle also forced the Wolfpack to settle for numerous jump shots as the team shot a meager 30.6 percent from the floor.
"I was impressed with him as a physical talent,” Clemson coach Oliver Purnell told reporters. “He has a world of potential. I saw him in high school in AAU basketball. There is no denying his talent and how valuable he is to their team."
And he is going to have to be equally as good if the Yellow Jackets are going to become the first team to win the ACC tournament by winning four games in four days. Against the Blue Devils this season, however, he is averaging just 7.5 points and 7.5 rebounds.
The two squads split their meetings this year, with the first tilt in Atlanta going to Georgia Tech, 71-67, but their most recent game in Durham was in favor of the Blue Devils, 86-67.
The key to the games has been rebounding. In the Yellow Jacket’s win, they were plus-8 on the glass, but in the loss, they were minus-6.
Georgia Tech should be a lock to hear its name on Selection Sunday, but a victory over Duke would end all the drama. And behind a dominant Favors, the Yellow Jackets should do just that.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 72, Duke 68
SEC and A-10 Title Game Previews
Doug Upstone
Its hard to argue with the two earlier matchups on Sunday in the Southeastern Conference and the Atlantic 10. Kentucky and Mississippi State won their respective divisions in the SEC and Temple and Richmond were battling for the league crown in the A-10 right from the moment league play commenced. Three of the four teams are a lock to hear their name Sunday, while one will have to play with great urgency to make sure their name is called.
Bulldogs still on the bubble
Mississippi State is in the SEC title tilt for a second consecutive year and according to those that follow how the brackets are made, are still situated atop the bubble. Coach Rick Stansbury understands his team better than anyone and knows what it has been through in putting together 23-10 campaign. The Bulldogs lost star recruit Renardo Sidney to ineligibility, suffered a series of injuries and gotten far less than expected out of point guard position.
Stansbury also knows a little better play at point probably turns around a few of the six losses into wins, losing those contests by five or fewer points. He cant change the past, but his Bulldogs can assure their future with the upset of Kentucky. Off their win over Vanderbilt, Mississippi State is 14-3 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points a game and has to find a way to slow down the Big Blue machine.
Kentucky might have put in the best performance of any top level team in the tournament in blasting 15th ranked Tennessee 74-45. Freshmen DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall paced the Wildcats as Kentucky shot 52.1 percent while holding the Volunteers to 19 first half points and 30.9 percent shooting for the game. John Caliparis crew is 6-3 ATS in last nine outings.
Mississippi State feels they are up to the challenge, having lost to Kentucky in overtime 81-75 and Betonline.com has them as seven-point underdogs with total of 138.5.
Theyre one of the best teams in the country, and when they came to our place, we had them, but it slipped out of our hands, said Bulldogs forward Jarvis Varnado. We want this rematch, and well be up for it. The gang from Starkville is 10-4 ATS as an underdog.
This SEC showdown begins at 1:00 Eastern on ABC and Kentucky is 0-7 ATS after allowing 50 or less points.
Owls and Spiders collide
Not exactly two common nicknames, however Temple and Richmond have played uncommon basketball all season long. The Owls are a real hoot with what they accomplished this season. Temples 28 wins are the most since the 2001 campaign, they knocked off a Top 5 team this season (city rival Villanova) and broke into the Top 25 for the first time in nine years.
Top seeded Temple is seeking its third straight A-10 postseason title and features three features double-figure scorers in Ryan Brooks, Juan Fernandez and Lavoy Allen. The Owls have been the bettors best friend with 22-11 ATS record this season and they are now 9-1 ATS in March since last year.
Richmond finished with the third seed and played a highly entertaining contest with Xavier on Saturday, coming out on top in overtime 89-85 as three-point underdogs. The Spiders are led by the sensational Kevin Anderson, who despite being 5'11 can get any shot on the floor he wants, similar to Tony Parker of San Antonio.
Anderson isnt the only quality Richmond player, with David Gonzalvez and others able to wisely find shots and openings in coach Chris Mooney offense. The Spiders are 15-5 ATS away from home against A-10 competitors the last two years.
Richmond is a three-point underdog, with total listed at 115 and has tremendous respect for their opponent.
They look great, coach Chris Mooney said of Temple. They are one of the best teams in the country. I think coach (Fran) Dunphy is one of the best coaches in the country. Their defense is suffocating. Their offense is very, very good and efficient. Its going to be an enormous challenge. The Spiders were up to the challenge once handing Temple their last loss 71-54 at home, nine games ago.
Temple is stellar 8-1 since that time and is unbelievable 8-0 ATS in conference tournament games over the last three seasons. Both teams get the national spotlight with a 1:00 Eastern start on CBS.
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Greensboro, N.C.)
Georgia Tech (21-11, 28-5 ATS) vs. (4) Duke (28-5, 18-12-2 ATS)
The Blue Devils shoot for a conference-record 18th ACC Tournament championship when they battle upstart Georgia Tech at Greensboro Coliseum.
The Yelllow Jackets, who entered the tournament as the No. 7 seed, have forged their way to their first title-game appearance since losing to Duke in 2005 by scoring a trio of narrow victories. The beat North Carolina (62-58 as four-point favorite on Thursday), 19th-ranked Maryland (69-64 as a four-point underdog on Saturday) and North Carolina State (57-54 as a four-point chalk on Sunday). In yesterday’s victory over the Wolfpack, Georgia Tech squandered all of a 10-point halftime lead and had to rally from a late three-point deficit to get the win.
The run to the title game has been a bit of a surprise for the Yellow Jackets, who finished the regular season on a 3-6 SU and 2-6-1 ATS slide in ACC play. That slump began with an ugly 86-67 loss at Duke as a 13-point underdog on Feb. 4.
As the top seed in this event, Duke earned a first-round bye, then took a tougher-than-expected route to the title game. On Friday, the Blue Devils couldn’t put away lowly Virginia until the final five minutes, eventually prevailing 57-46 but never coming close to covering as a 17-point favorite. That was followed by Saturday’s 77-74 come-from-behind victory over Miami, Fla., this time falling short as an 11½-point chalk. It marked the first time since ACC play tipped off – and just the second time all season – that the Blue Devils failed to cover in back-to-back games.
Since falling 71-67 at Georgia Tech as a seven-point road favorite on Jan. 9, Duke has gone 15-2 versus conference rivals (9-7-2 ATS). Although the teams split their season series this year, the Blue Devils are still 17-5 SU and 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings, and they’ve cashed in three of the last four dating back to an 82-70 romp as an 11-point favorite in a 2008 ACC tournament semifinal game.
The Blue Devils have won eight of the last 11 tournament championships. They’re also 16-1 SU all-time as a No. 1 seed in this event.
Georgia Tech has failed to cover in seven of its last nine Sunday affairs, but is otherwise on ATS upticks of 4-0 at neutral sites, 4-1 as an underdog at neutral sites, 9-4 as a ‘dog regardless of venue and 4-0 when catching 7 to 12½ points. Meanwhile, Duke is on a 6-0-1 ATS run on Sunday.
The underdog is 9-0-1 ATS in this tournament, with six outright upsets.
The Yellow Jackets carry “under” trends of 4-1 at neutral sites (3-0 in this tournament), 16-7-1 on Sunday and 10-1 versus winning teams. The Blue Devils also are on “under” sprees of 8-3 overall (all as a favorite), 29-12 in ACC games, 7-1 versus winning teams, 15-7 on Sunday and 15-6 at neutral sites (all as a favorite). Lastly, these teams have stayed under the total in 10 of their last 11 meetings, and the under is 7-3 in this year’s ACC tournament.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT
(at Atlantic City, N.J.)
Richmond (25-7, 17-10-1 ATS) vs. (17) Temple (28-5, 22-11 ATS)
The two hottest teams in the Atlantic 10 hook up in the tournament championship game at Boardwalk Hall, where the Spiders will try to punch their first Big Dance ticket since 2004 and keep top-seeded Temple from winning its third straight A-10 title.
Richmond continued its late-season trend of playing close games Saturday, needing overtime to get past No. 2 seed Xavier 89-85 as a three-point underdog and qualify for the title game for just the second time (first time since 2002). The Spiders have won four in a row and 12 of their last 13 games (10-2-1 ATS), but three of their last five contests have gone into overtime (Richmond went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS), and its last six games have been decided by a total of 24 points.
The Owls, who gave up a league-low 56.8 ppg during regular-season conference action, have been even more suffocating in this tournament. On Friday, they limited St. Bonaventure to 35.8 percent shooting in a 69-51 rout as a 10-point favorite, then they blitzed Rhode Island 57-44 as a 3½-point chalk yesterday, holding the Rams to 27.1 percent from the floor. Temple has won nine in a row (8-1 ATS) since suffering a 71-54 loss at Richmond on Feb. 6.
While this is just the Spiders’ second appearance in the league title game, Temple is gunning for a record eighth championship. The Owls, who are the first No. 1 seed to make it to the A-10 finals since 2005, are trying to become the first team to rip off three straight championships since UMass won five in a row in the mid-1990s.
The Owls have dropped just two A-10 contests all year, including the ugly 17-point road loss to Richmond as a 1½-point road underdog on Feb. 6. In that game, the Spiders outshot Temple 57.8 percent to 32.1 percent and forced 13 turnovers. The teams have split the last 10 meetings, but Richmond has taken the cash in the last three following a 3-0 ATS run by the Owls. Finally, the favorite has covered in five of the last seven series tussles.
It’s been nothing but positive results at the betting window for the Spiders, who are on ATS hot streaks of 9-2 overall, 9-2-1 in conference play, 6-1-1 against winning teams, 37-13-1 as an underdog and 22-7 as a pup of less than seven points. Likewise, Temple is on ATS surges of 57-28-1 overall (8-1 last nine), 40-17 as a favorite, 8-0 when laying points at neutral sites, 21-7 as a chalk of less than seven points, 40-14-1 versus Atlantic 10 rivals, 10-1 on Sunday and 39-17-1 when facing opponents that have a winning record.
Richmond is on “over” runs of 5-1 overall (all in conference) and 4-1 on Sunday. From there, though, the Spiders sport “under” trends of 9-4 at neutral sites, 7-2 as an underdog, 6-1 when catching less than seven points and 4-1 as a neutral-site pup. It’s been all “unders” for Temple, too, including 5-1 overall (all in conference, all as a favorite), 5-0 at neutral sites, 5-1 as a favorite at neutral sites and 4-1 on Sunday.
Conversely, the “over” has cashed in each of the last two meetings and three of the last four in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEMPLE and UNDER
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Nashville)
Mississippi State (23-10, 15-12-1 ATS) vs. (2) Kentucky (31-2, 17-14 ATS)
The top two seeds clash for the SEC tournament title and automatic Big Dance bid at Bridgestone Arena, with Mississippi State looking to repeat as champions and the Wildcats seeking a record 26th league crown – and first since 2005.
The Bulldogs flexed their defensive muscle in Saturday’s 62-52 upset victory over Vanderbilt as a 1½-point road underdog, limiting the high-scoring Commodores 34.6 percent shooting. Forward Jarvis Varnado was a one-man wrecking crew with 11 points, a team-high nine rebounds and a game-high six blocked shots. Mississippi State, which opened the SEC tournament with a 75-69 quarterfinal win over Florida as a 1½-point favorite, has won five of seven and seven of 10, all in conference.
Kentucky needed a big second half to rally past Alabama 73-67 in Friday’s quarterfinal matchup – falling just short as a 9½-point chalk – but it had no such trouble with No. 15 Tennessee on Saturday, rolling 74-45 and easily covering as a 4½-point favorite. The second-ranked Wildcats outshot Tennessee 52.1 percent to 30.9 percent and had a commanding 40-26 rebounding edge. It was the second time this year that John Calipari’s squad avenged a loss with a double-digit rout.
Mississippi State was one of only a few teams to give the Wildcats a tough time this year, taking them to overtime on Feb. 16 but eventually falling 81-75 as a 2½-point home underdog. That snapped the Bulldogs’ three-game winning streak in this rivalry, which included an 84-82 overtime victory as a 2½-point underdog in the 2007 conference tournament. The ‘dog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.
The Bulldogs sport positive pointspread streaks of 5-0 at neutral sites, 10-4 as an underdog, 12-3-1 as a ‘dog of 7 to 10½ points, 5-1 as a neutral-site pup, 4-1 on Sunday, 4-1 against winning teams and 13-5-1 after a spread-cover. Kentucky has cashed in four of five on Sunday, but is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 after a spread-cover and 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory of more than 20 points.
Mississippi State has topped the total in five of six on Sunday, but is otherwise on “under” runs of 8-1-1 at neutral venues, 7-3-1 as a ‘dog and 6-0-1 as a neutral-site pup. Meanwhile, it’s been all “unders” for the Wildcats, including 5-2 overall (all in conference), 7-1 at neutral sites, 5-1 after a SU win, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 when laying points at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI STATE and UNDER
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Minnesota (21-12, 17-15 ATS) vs. (5) Ohio State (26-7, 16-17 ATS)
Having already knocked off two of the three Big Ten teams that shared the regular-season title, the Golden Gophers now go for the trifecta when they meet Evan Turner and Ohio State in the championship game at Conseco Fieldhouse.
One day after dispatching No. 11 Michigan State 72-67 as a four-point underdog in the quarterfinals, Minnesota completely tore apart sixth-ranked Purdue on Saturday, rolling 69-42 as a 2½-point pup to reach the Big Ten title game for the first time in history. The Gophers raced out to a 26-4 lead and never looked back in winning their fourth in a row SU and ATS. Going back to Feb. 18, Tubby Smith’s squad has won seven of nine (8-1 ATS) to likely assure itself of a Big Dance berth. In those nine games, Minnesota has been a beast defensively, giving up 60 points or fewer seven times.
For the second time in as many days, the Buckeyes needed late-game heroics from Turner to survive and advance to their first tournament championship game since winning it all in 2007. In a quarterfinal matchup against rival Michigan on Friday, Turner hit a buzzer-beating 35-footer to turn a two-point deficit into a 69-68 win. Then on Saturday against Illinois, Turner made field goals to force a first and second overtime session, with Ohio State eventually winning 88-81 in double-OT.
On the downside, Thad Matta’s team failed to cover in both victories (as a nine-point chalk against Michigan and a 7½-point favorite versus Illinois). Still, the Buckeyes have won 15 of 17 overall (9-8 ATS) – including the last six in a row (3-3 ATS) – going 15-1 SU in Big Ten contests during this stretch.
The home team held serve in this rivalry in the regular season, with Minnesota prevailing 73-62 as a four-point favorite on Jan. 9 and the Buckeyes rolling 85-63 as a seven-point chalk 22 days later. However, Turner (injury) didn’t play in the first meeting, but he had 19 points and eight assists in the rematch in Columbus. The teams have split their last six meetings SU and ATS (the host won and covered all six), and the favorite is 8-0 SU and ATS in the last eight.
Aside from an 8-23 ATS slump on Sunday, the Gophers are on positive pointspread surges of 4-0 overall (all in conference), 5-0 versus winning teams, 5-1 after a victory, 8-1 after a win of more than 20 points, 5-1 as an underdog and 5-1 as a pup of less than six points. Ohio State has cashed in seven of 10 against winning teams, but is now just 1-4 ATS in its last five at neutral venues.
The under is 4-1 in the last five in this series; Minnesota is on “under” runs of 4-1 against winning teams, 19-8 as a ‘dog and 14-5 as a neutral-site pup; and the Buckeyes have stayed low in 19 of 27 on Sunday, 12 of 17 after a non-cover and four straight when laying less than seven points. However, the over is 4-1 in the Gophers’ last five overall, 4-0 in their last four on Sunday and 9-1 in Ohio State’s last 10 when laying points on a neutral court.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Big Ten Tournament: Final Preview and Pick
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (+4, 130)
Since 2002, no team seeded lower than a No. 3 has won the Big Ten tournament. Don’t tell that to Minnesota.
The Gophers (21-12) have owned this Big Ten tournament. The No. 6 seed overwhelmed Penn State 76-55, held off No. 11 Michigan State 72-67 and embarrassed sixth-ranked Purdue on Saturday, jumping out to a 34-11 halftime lead en route to an easy 69-42 win. Nine players played 18 minutes or more, and nobody played more than 26 minutes.
While Illinois may or may not sneak into the NCAA Tournament after losing Saturday, Minnesota really made an impression.
“Our team has really come together,” Ralph Sampson III said after the game. “I feel that we can compete with any team in the country, and I feel that we can compete with any team in the Big Ten. I feel that we’ve kind of proven that in this tournament right now.”
Ohio State (26-7), the Big Ten’s No. 1 seed, kept its chance at a NCAA No. 1 seed alive by outlasting Illinois 88-81 in double overtime.
Illinois had two last-second chances, but missed both. And Ohio State embarked on a 20-0 run in the second half that gave it the lead, though the Illini fought back.
Evan Turner, in his continuing competition with John Wall of Kentucky for national player of the year honors, had 31 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in the win. He also had 10 turnovers.
William Buford, more and more a reliable No. 2 scoring option for the Buckeyes, added 22 points with 10 rebounds.
But the Buckeyes are likely gassed following two overtimes, the Gophers are well rested after the Purdue beatdown, and Minnesota wants to end all doubt as to its NCAA status.
Prediction: Minnesota 68, Ohio State 64
NCAAB News and Notes
Information on Sunday's college basketball games.
SEC tournament
Kentucky scored last seven points in regulation, won at Mississippi St 81-75 in OT Feb 16 (-2.5); Wildcats won 12 of last 13 games, are 5-3 vs spread in its last eight games as favorite- they're +11/+15 in second half the last two days. Mississippi State is 5-2 in last seven games; favorites are 6-3 vs spread in the SEC tournament so far this weekend. Most folks think Bulldogs are in tournament now, but no way is that a sure thing.
Atlantic 10 tournament
Temple won its last nine games, covered last six; they're 12-3 vs spread an A-14 favorite this season. Richmond's last six games were all decided by five or less points; they're 12-1 in last 13 games and covered their last six games as an underdog. Spiders (-2) handed Temple its worst loss in conference play, beating the Owls 71-54 at home Feb 6. Both teams are assumed in NCAAs, so they're playing for pride and a trophy.
ACC tournament
Duke split with Georgia Tech this year, losing 71-67 (-6) in Atlanta Jan 9 (Tech outscored them 22-9 at line), then winning 86-67 (-12), making 12-18 from arc in game where refs buried Tech's big men before the first TV timeout. Duke won 11 of its last 12 games since Georgetown upset. Tech is going for fourth win in last four days, after entering tourney on a 4-7 skid. Most people think Tech is in, but bubble teams are nervous.
Big 10 tournament
Minnesota/Ohio State split pair this year; Buckeyes lost 73-62 Jan 9 at Williams Arena (+6; Gophers made 11-23 from arc, outscored OSU 23-7 on foul line), then beat Minnesota 85-63 Jan 31 (-7.5). Ohio State won its last six games, pulling out dramatic wins last couple days. Gophers are 7-2 in last nine games, 4-3 as a Big 11 underdog; most people think if Minnesota is going to make NCAAs, they still need to win this game.