Big Ten Championship
By Judd Hall
The Big Ten Tournament is normally one of those postseason championships that you can count on the top teams to standing at the final stage. After all, four of the last five title games have involved the top two seeds. This time around we’re getting something different with the Buckeyes taking on Purdue (24-9 straight up, 14-15 against the spread).
Matt Painter’s Boilermakers shouldn’t be considered that much of a surprise to make it this far. This was a squad that was picked by many experts to win the conference this season. So Purdue beating the Fighting Illini as a 3 ½-point favorite 66-56 on Saturday is nothing out of the ordinary. What should raise an eyebrow or two is how they got to this point.
Purdue’s offense has exploded in the playoffs thanks to Robbie Hummel. The sophomore forward hadn’t been at full strength for most of the year with a back injury. And his last two starts before the league tourney saw him score just eight points per night. Since taking the court at the Conseco Fieldhouse, Hummel has scored 19.5 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per outing.
Hummel’s return has also helped bring a more efficient approach to the Boilers’ attack. They have nailed 19 of their 39 shots from beyond the arch. And they’ve won the turnover battle overall, giving up the ball 10 times to the 18 takeaways against Penn State and Illinois.
Jason Johnson came up huge for the Boilermakers as well, scoring 20 points and blocking three of the Illini’s shots.
Ohio State (23-9 SU, 17-11 ATS) needed a solid performance in this tournament just to make sure that they would make the field of 65. Now the Buckeyes stand just one victory shy of their third conference championship since the tourney was started in 1998.
The Buckeyes made it to this point by upending Michigan State as eight-point underdogs, 82-70. And if you had to take anything away from OSU’s win is that they played tough on both sides of the court.
Thad Matta’s crew got on the Spartans early with an offense that connected on 52 percent of their shots from the field. Despite the hot shooting, the Bucks led 34-29 into halftime.
Once the second 20 minutes of the game got underway, Ohio State’s defense took over the game. The Buckeyes deployed a zone defense that was so frustrating that the Spartans went well over seven minutes without a field goal. Michigan State wound up completing just 33.3 percent of its shots in the second half.
Evan Turner continues to show that he’s the best player the Buckeyes have by pulling in 18 points and 10 rebounds in a winning effort. Jon Diebler and B.J. Mullens also came to play with 17 and 12 points, respectively.
Like I mentioned earlier, the Bucks needed to have a strong showing in this tournament to get an NCAA bid. Now after making it to this point, they’re a lock to get into the big dance. A win in this game could mean a better seeding since ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi has them as a No. 9 seed.
These squads split the season series with the home team covering the spread on both occasions. But you have to wonder if we’ll see a repeat of the last time they faced one another.
In that game on Feb. 28, Purdue was looking to get back to playing tough defense. They did just that in holding the Buckeyes 43.8 percent from the field and 23.5 percent from the three-point line. The Boilermakers wound up winning as 9 ½-point favorites, 75-50.
For the Boilers to get their first Big Ten crown, they must hold down Ohio State’s long range attack like they did at the end of last month. The Bucks ranked second in the Big Ten during the regular season by hitting 37.3 percent of their shots beyond the arch.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has installed Purdue as a six-point “chalk” and a total of 126.
The Buckeyes are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the Boilers. Purdue is just 3-4 ATS in its past seven matches of the season…although they have covered the number in both postseason tilts.
Being listed as the favorite in the championship game has been relatively successful, going 7-4 SU and ATS. If you fancy the total plays, then look for a low scoring final. That’s because the ‘under’ is 7-4 in this contest, including a 4-1 run currently.
CBS will be broadcasting all the action at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
vegasinsider.com
SEC Tournament Finals
By Brian Edwards
Tennessee was the pre-season favorite in the SEC, but the Volunteers have spent much of the season playing maddeningly inconsistent basketball. Just when Bruce Pearl’s team appeared to be peaking at the right time with convincing road wins over Florida and South Carolina, it allowed Alabama to come into Knoxville and win the regular-season finale for both schools.
Therefore, the Vols came to Tampa for the SEC Tournament with plenty to prove. In less than 24 hours on Friday and Saturday, they did just that by spanking Alabama and Auburn to advance to Sunday’s finals.
Mississippi State (22-12 straight up, 17-10-1 against the spread) will be waiting for UT. The Bulldogs, who I tabbed as my sleeper team in this SEC Tournament Primer, have caught fire at the St. Pete Times Forum.
Rick Stansbury’s team has ripped off three consecutive wins over Georgia, South Carolina and LSU. MSU took care of the league’s regular-season champs on Saturday, capturing a 67-57 victory over LSU as a four-point underdog. Gamblers backing the Bulldogs on the money line collected a plus-155 payout (paid $155 on $100 wagers).
Junior center Jarvis Varnado led the way for Mississippi St., scoring 19 points to go with seven rebounds and seven blocked shots. Barry Stewart added 17 points for the Bulldogs, who have won five in a row both SU and ATS.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Tennessee (21-11 SU, 14-15-1 ATS) as a six-point favorite with a total of 148. As of early this morning, most books had the Vols at 4 ½.
The Vols rode Wayne Chism’s hot shooting to a 47-36 lead over Auburn at halftime Saturday. In the second half, the Tigers made a couple of runs to make things interesting, but they were never able to get over the hump.
Chism was the catalyst for UT, finishing with 27 points and nine rebounds on 10-of-16 shooting from the field. The senior center drained 4-of-8 attempts from 3-point land. Tyler Smith added 23 points and Bobby Maze chipped in with 11 points, six rebounds and five assists.
Before avenging its regular-season loss at Auburn, Tennessee got even for last week’s loss to Alabama in Friday night’s quarterfinals showdown. The Vols cruised to an 86-62 win as eight-point favorites. The 148 combined points made ‘over/under’ wagers a push.
Smith paced UT with 22 points and six rebounds. Chism added 15 points and seven boards, while J.P. Prince tallied 14 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, three steals and two blocked shots.
These SEC rivals met at Thompson-Boling Arena on Feb. 25 with Tennessee winning an 81-76 decision. Mississippi St. took the cash, though, hooking up its backers (I was one of ‘em) as a nine-point road underdog.
Scotty Hopson was the catalyst on that night with a game-high 21 points for the Vols. Smith had 13 points, nine rebounds and four assists. In the losing effort, Stewart had a team-high 20 points for MSU.
When UT has been a single-digit favorite this season, it has compiled an 8-10 spread record. When listed as an underdog this year, MSU has posted a 7-4 ATS ledger. The Bulldogs have taken the cash in five straight games as underdogs.
UT is in the SEC Tournament finals for the first time in 18 years. I was at the 1991 event in Music City when the last-place Vols advanced to the finals thanks to dead-eye marksmanship from 3-point land by Allan Houston and Lang Wiseman. UT’s perimeter shooting went cold in the finals against Alabama, however. The Vols hit just 3-of-17 from beyond the arc and the Crimson Tide cut the nets down with an 88-69 triumph.
Tennessee hasn’t won the SEC Tournament since 1979 when it beat Kentucky 75-69 in overtime. That was so long ago that it was before Dale Ellis ever touched campus in Knoxville.
Mississippi St. hasn’t won the SEC Tournament since Mario Austin led it to a 61-58 finals win over Alabama at the Georgia Dome in 2002. The Bulldogs also cut down the nets in New Orleans in 1996 when Dontae Jones scored 26 points to lead MSU past Kentucky, 84-73.
Both of those teams went on to the 1996 Final Four with UK winning it all by beating Syracuse in the finals. MSU beat Cincy at Rupp Arena in the Elite Eight before falling to the ‘Cuse in the national semifinals.
Most "bracketologists" don't consider MSU a legitimate threat to get an at-large invite to the Big Dance. The Bulldogs won't need one if they take care of business later today.
Tip-off is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Mississippi St. has won seven of its eight games against SEC East squads this year. Of course, the one loss came at UT.
--With seven rejections Saturday against LSU, Varnado broke Shaquille O’Neal’s single-season SEC record for blocked shots. He now has 159 swats.
--With its loss to Auburn in Friday’s quarterfinals showdown, Florida is most likely going to miss the NCAA Tournament for a second straight season. The Gators had gone to nine straight tourneys and won it all in ’06 and ’07 before this two-year slump.
--The SEC will get at least four, maybe even five or six, teams in the NIT. MSU and Auburn could still get NCAA bids but if they don’t, both would be invited to the NIT. South Carolina and Florida look like toast to me, so we’re probably safe by going ahead and calling them NIT teams. Vandy and Alabama are also in play for post-season consideration.
--Since the SEC expanded to 12 teams with the addition of Arkansas and South Carolina in 1992, the league has never had fewer than four bids to the NCAA Tournament. Also, no SEC team has ever gone 10-6 in conference play and been left out of the field. However, there’s a possibility that both could happen this year. South Carolina and Auburn both went 10-6 in the SEC, yet it’s debatable whether either will hear its name called on Selection Sunday. Furthermore, UT and LSU are considered the only “locks” for at-large invites, so the conference might get only two bids if the Vols beat MSU.
--With ESPN and the SEC signing a big contract recently, this was the last year for Raycom Sports to cover the SEC Tournament. Therefore, during the course of the weekend, the network listed the top five all-time players from each program in the conference. I didn’t see all of them, but I did catch the top five for Alabama last night. And I nearly lost my dinner when I saw who Raycom had as the second-best player in the history of ‘Bama basketball, James “Hollywood” Robinson. Seriously, Raycom, get a clue! Now I know as well as anyone that Robinson was a player, no doubt about it. But I also know that Robinson wasn’t even the second-best player on the Alabama teams that he played on, much less the second-best of all time. Without hesitation, I would take Robert Horry and Latrell Spreewell ahead of Robinson and that trio played together. If pressed on the subject, I’d consider Gary Waites, who I’ve often called the most underrated point guard in SEC history, ahead of Robinson. That’s just players that played with Robinson. If covering the rest of ‘Bama’s hoops history, I’d take the following players before Robinson: Derrick McKey, Michael Ansley, Antonio McDyess, Melvin Cheatum, Enis Whatley, Jason Caffey and Antoine “Red Shoes” Pettway.
--How nasty was FSU’s Tony Douglas in Saturday’s upset win over North Carolina? The more I see the ‘Noles, the more confident I am that they are (at least) a Sweet 16 squad.
vegasinsider.com
Big XII Championship
By Judd Hall
If there is one thing that conference tournaments prove is that you can erase a disappointing campaign by getting hot at the right time. Baylor (17-13 straight up, 10-15 against the spread) is attempting to do just that later today as they square off with the Tigers for the Big XII championship.
The Bears were expected to be one of the better teams in the league this season after qualifying for the NCAA Tournament last year. Most experts picked them to be the third best team in the conference. But everyone forgot that just because you had a great 2007 campaign, doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to be back on top the following season.
Baylor found itself not connecting on the deep shots that helped them succeed in ’07 under Scott Drew. Last year, the Bears were top scoring offense in the Big XII with 81.3 points per game and third overall in shooting beyond the arch, hitting 37.8 percent of those attempts. This season they’re sixth in total offense (76.8 PPG) and sixth on three-pointers (36.0 percent).
When you look at statistics like that, you can understand that there’s going to be a drop off in the standings. And that’s just what happened as BU was fifth in the league last season with a 9-7 mark and were able to just win five games in the Big XII this year.
It appears that this club has found itself at just the right time as they sit just one victory away from making their second straight trip into the field of 65. Baylor is averaging just 70.7 PPG in three tourney wins. However, the Bears are hitting 47.5 percent of their shots (46.1 percent during the year) and have won the turnover battle in their last two games (17-23).
LaceDarius Dunn has been huge during this run, scoring 19.3 PPG and getting seven rebounds per game the bracket. Kevin Rogers is on a tear as well with 14.7 PPG and 10 boards per contest.
Missouri (27-6 SU, 16-10 ATS) was expecting to get an NCAA bid thanks to a solid regular season campaign. But they weren’t picked by many folks to have a chance at winning the Big XII tourney. Only Doc’s Sports had the Tigers cutting down the nets in a prediction piece I did earlier in the week.
Mike Anderson’s squad had a decidedly easier road to the final than their opponent. They faced the 11th seed, Texas Tech in the quarter finals and then got the No. 7 squad in the Cowboys last night to reach this level.
To be fair, the 67-59 victory over Oklahoma State was extremely difficult considering it was essentially a home game for the kids from Stillwater.
Mizzou will have to put the ball in the basket on a consistent basis to be successful tonight. And that shouldn’t be a big problem since they lead the league in scoring with 81.4 PPG. They’ll also have to stop Rogers on the glass to hold down the Bears. But that could be problematic since Mizzou gives up 36.7 boards per game to the opposition.
While Baylor must win this game in order to get to the NCAA Tournament. A win for Missouri here almost assures them a solid No. 3 seed and perhaps a chance to play closer to home in the first second rounds in Kansas City.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants have installed the Tigers as five-point favorites with a total coming in at 150.
That line sounds about right considering that Missouri beat the Bears during the regular season as a 6 ½-point home “chalk,” 89-72, on Jan. 31.
We should not that despite that outright win and cover by the Tigers, Baylor is still 8-2 ATS in its last 10 head-to-head meetings.
Mizzou is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 conference games. The Bears, on the other hand, are just 4-11 ATS in their previous 15 Big XII tests.
The ‘under’ has hit in 10 of Baylor’s last 12 matches. Meanwhile, the Tigers have seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 in their past eight contests that were played in a neutral environment.
ESPN will broadcast this championship game at 6:00 p.m. EDT.
vegasinsider.com
Big East Finals
By Brian Edwards
Syracuse is back in the Big East Tournament finals at Madison Square Garden for the 14th time during Jim Boeheim’s storied career. To get there, the Orange had to survive seven overtimes in a 24-hour stretch against UConn and West Virginia.
Syracuse needed six extra sessions to get past the Huskies, but just one to dispose of the Mountaineers on Saturday as 6 ½-point underdogs. Bettors backing the ‘Cuse on the money line (per my suggestion in Friday’s chat) collected a plus-240 payout (paid $240 on $100 bets).
One night after playing 67 minutes, Jonny Flynn had 15 points and nine assists. Eric Devendorf scored a team-high 23 points. Like I pointed out in the chat, Syracuse’s zone defense doesn’t require guards to expend as much energy, so I wasn’t concerned with Flynn and Devendorf being gassed.
I’m not tonight, either. Georgia was in a somewhat similar situation last year after playing a doubleheader on Saturday before facing Arkansas in the SEC Tournament finals. The Dawgs beat the more-rested Razorbacks on Sunday to get an NCAA bid.
Gerry McNamara became an MSG legend by leading the Orange to the finals in 2006, and the ‘Cuse finished the job on Sunday. That’s not to say Syracuse definitely wins tonight by any means, but bettors shouldn’t get too carried away in thinking Syracuse will have nothing left in the tank.
With that said, we should point out that Syracuse is playing its fourth game in as many days on top of the seven-overtime thing. Louisville didn’t have to play on Wednesday thanks to a bye. Therefore, Syracuse has played 155 minutes in four days, while the Cardinals have played just 60 during that span.
Louisville (27-5 straight up, 20-12 against the spread) hasn’t needed any OTs – yet. The Cardinals did need a second-half rally against Villanova in Saturday’s semifinal showdown. ‘Nova was in control at intermission with a 34-26 lead. However, Rick Pitino’s team came out like gang busters in the second half, eventually capturing a 69-55 win as a 4 ½-point favorite.
Early Clark was the catalyst with 17 points, seven rebounds, four assists and four steals. Jerry Smith knocked down four 3-pointers and finished with 16 points.
Terrence Williams had a bad shooting night and scored just five points, but he showed you why he’s so good. Williams is the kind of player that can have a significant impact on a game in a positive way even when he can’t buy a bucket. He had 11 rebounds, six assists and three steals.
Syracuse (26-8 SU, 17-13 ATS) has won seven in a row both SU and ATS, including Thursday’s epic 127-117 win over UConn as a 5 ½-point underdog.
The ‘over’ is also on fire for the ‘Cuse, cashing at a 7-2 clip in its last nine games. The Orange have seen the ‘over’ go 19-11 overall this year. On the other hand, the ‘under’ has hit in three straight for Louisville and is 16-14 overall.
These teams met once this year at the Carrier Dome on Jan. 25. Louisville captured a 67-57 win as a one-point road favorite. The 124 combined points fell ‘under’ the 144 ½-point total. Clark led U of L into the win column with 16 points, 13 rebounds and five assists. Devendorf had a team-high 20 points for the ‘Cuse.
LVSC opened Louisville as a 6 1/2-point favorite with a total of 134. As of 4:00 p.m. Eastern, most books had the Cards at 7 1/2 with the total anywhere from 133 1/2 to 134 1/2. Syracuse is very attractive on the money line, offering gamblers a payout in the plus-275 range (risk $100 to win $275).
ESPN will provide television coverage at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--North Carolina needed a buzzer-beating 3-pointer from Ty Lawson to escape Tallahassee with a victory during the regular season. This time around, Lawson might not even be in uniform when these teams collide this afternoon at the Georgia Dome. The Seminoles have covered the spread in three straight head-to-head meetings against UNC. For the season, Leonard Hamilton’s team is 10-4-1 ATS in 15 games as an underdog. FSU has outstanding interior defenders in Solomon Alabi, Chris Singleton and Uche Echefu. Alabi and Singleton combined for seven blocked shots in Friday’s win over Ga. Tech. Tyler Hansbrough will have a tough time going against FSU’s “bigs” who are long and physical.
--Bruce Pearl’s top assistant coach, Tony Jones, is believed to be a leading candidate for the vacant head-coaching job at Tennessee State.
--Former Virginia player and head coach Jeff Jones is now the head coach at American, which won the Patriot League’s automatic berth with Saturday’s 73-57 win over Holy Cross. Jones is back in the NCAA Tournament, while the Wahoos are home and don’t appear anywhere near getting back to the Big Dance anytime soon.
--Twenty years after leading Michigan to the national title as interim head coach, Steve Fisher has his San Diego St. team on the cusp of an NCAA Tournament invite. The Aztecs have beaten UNLV and BYU over the last two days. They face Utah tonight in the Mountain West Conference finals in Las Vegas at the Thomas & Mack Center. Versus will have television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
vegasinsider.com
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Atlanta)
(22) Florida State (25-8, 18-8-1 ATS) vs. (9) Duke (26-6, 15-15-1 ATS)
Florida State advanced to its first ever ACC tournament championship game by upsetting top-seeded and No. 1-ranked North Carolina 73-70 as a nine-point underdog at the Georgia Dome on Saturday. Toney Douglas had a game-high 27 points for the Seminoles, who shot 49 percent from the field and held the Tar Heels to 37.3 percent. Florida State snapped an 11-game losing skid to North Carolina and ended the Tar Heels’ two-year reign as tournament champs.
One day after barely staving off elimination with a 66-65 quarterfinals victory over Boston College as a 10-point chalk, Duke knocked out Maryland on Saturday, prevailing 67-61 but once again coming up short against the number, this time as a nine-point favorite. The Blue Devils advanced to the tourney championship game for the first time since winning the title in 2006 despite shooting just 36.4 percent overall, but they made 9 of 22 shots from the three-point arc (41 percent).
Prior to shocking North Carolina, the Seminoles eliminated Georgia Tech 64-62 in the semifinals, failing to cover as a five-point favorite. They’ve won three in a row and nine of their last 12, and they’re on a 13-5-1 ATS roll. Meanwhile, Duke has won seven of its last eight games – the only defeat coming a week ago today at North Carolina (79-71) – but it has followed up a three-game ATS winning streak by going 1-3 ATS in its last four (0-3 ATS as a favorite).
Duke swept the season series from Florida State, but the ‘Noles got the cash both times. The Blue Devils prevailed 66-58 in Tallahassee as a 9½-point favorite on Jan. 10, then barely held off the Seminoles at home two weeks ago, eking out an 84-81 win as a 12½-point chalk. Duke has won three in a row and eight of the last 10 in this rivalry, but Florida State has cashed eight times during this stretch, going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, all from the underdog role.
The Seminoles carry a slew of positive ATS streaks into the championship game, including 22-9-2 overall, 6-1 at neutral sites, 16-5-2 in ACC action, 19-7-2 against winning teams and 15-4-1 as an underdog. Duke is on ATS slides of 10-22 at neutral venues and 1-5 the ACC tourney.
The under has been the play in 10 of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, though the clash earlier this month at Duke went over the total. Additionally, the under for Florida State is on stretches of 6-1 overall (all in the ACC), 14-4-2 at neutral sites, 20-7-1 on Sunday and 10-2 against winning teams. Finally, Duke sports “under” streaks of 26-11 overall (5-1 last six), 17-5 in ACC play, 10-1 at neutral venues and 5-2 on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE and UNDER
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Ohio State (22-9, 16-11 ATS) vs. (24) Purdue (23-9, 13-15 ATS)
Ohio State dominated top-seeded and seventh-ranked Michigan State in Saturday’s Big Ten tournament semifinals, rolling to an 82-70 victory as an eight-point underdog at Conseco Fieldhouse to reach the league championship game for the second time in three years. The Buckeyes shot a blistering 53.2 percent from the field, including making 9 of 16 three-point tries, and held Michigan State to 38 percent shooting (3-for-21 from long range) as they won their fourth in a row (3-1 ATS).
Purdue followed up Friday’s 79-65 rout of Penn State as an eight-point favorite with Saturday’s 66-56 win over Illinois as a 3½-point chalk. The Boilermakers, who led 37-17 at halftime, got 20 points from JaJuan Johnson and 19 from Robbie Hummel to make it to the title game for the first time in 11 years. Purdue’s two wins and covers in Indianapolis come on the heels of a 1-3 SU and 1-4 ATS slump
These teams split their season series, with the host winning each contest. The Buckeyes needed overtime for an 80-72 victory as a two-point home ‘dog, but Purdue got revenge in a big way three weeks later, rolling 75-50 as a 9½-point chalk. Ohio State is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 12-4-1 ATS in the last 17 clashes, including a 63-52 rout as a 6½-point favorite in the 2007 Big Ten tournament.
Ohio State, which won the tournament championship behind then-freshman Greg Oden in 2007, is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games in this event. Also, the Buckeyes, who won last year’s NIT, have won and covered seven straight postseason games, including Friday’s 61-57 upset victory over Wisconsin as a three-point ‘dog in the quarterfinals, and they’re on additional pointspread runs of 9-4 overall (all in the Big Ten) and 5-0 at neutral sites. However, OSU has failed to cash in seven of its last eight on Sunday.
Purdue, which had advanced past the first round of the Big Ten tournament just once in seven years prior to this season, is 4-5 ATS in its last nine tourney games and 3-5 ATS in its last eight at neutral sites.
The under is on runs of 4-1 for Ohio State overall (all in the Big Ten), 16-5 for Ohio State on Sunday, 5-1 for Purdue on Sunday and 4-1 in this rivalry. However, the Boilermakers have topped the total in both of their tournament games this weekend, making the over 7-1 in their last eight on neutral courts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Tampa, Fla.)
Mississippi State (22-12, 17-10-1 ATS) vs. Tennessee (20-11, 13-15-1 ATS)
Mississippi State knocked off SEC regular-season champion LSU 67-57 in Saturday’s tournament semifinals, prevailing as a four-point underdog to earn their first berth in the finals since 2003. The Bulldogs have won and covered five in a row and kept their postseason hopes alive despite making just 33 percent of their shots against the Tigers, including missing 13 of 16 tries from beyond the three-point line. However, Mississippi State held LSU to just 31 percent shooting and it went 24-for-35 from the foul line, while its opponent was 9-for-13 on free throws.
Tennessee routed Auburn 94-85 in Saturday’s other semifinal matchup, cashing as a 4½-point favorite just one day after pummeling Alabama 88-62 as an eight-point chalk. The Volunteers, who have reached the title game for the first time in 18 years, shot 62 percent from the field and 58 percent from beyond the arc in crushing Auburn. The Vols have won five of their last six, and they’ve followed an 0-3 ATS stretch by cashing in four of their last five.
These teams faced off on Feb. 25 in Knoxville, Tenn., and the Vols scored an 81-76 victory but failed to cover as a nine-point home favorite. Tennessee has won five in a row in this series (4-1 ATS).
Prior to this weekend, Mississippi State had been in a 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS slump in the SEC tournament since losing to Kentucky in 2003 finals. In addition to knocking off LSU yesterday, the Bulldogs beat Georgia 79-60 as a nine-point favorite Thursday and routed South Carolina 82-68 as a 2½-point pup Friday.
In addition to cashing in its last five games, Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at neutral sites and 4-0 ATS in its last four against winning teams. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last five at neutral sites, but 3-6 ATS in its last nine SEC tourney tilts. Also, the Vols haven’t covered in three straight games all season.
Tennessee entered this tournament on a 12-3 “under” streak (11-3 in SEC play), but it has topped the total in its two games this weekend. Mississippi State is on “over” runs of 8-3-1 overall (all in SEC action), 5-0 on Sunday and 23-9-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Gametimepicks.com
SEC tournament: Championship preview and picks
By DAVID JONES
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers (-4.5)
It will be a contrast of styles on display in Tampa Sunday.
Mississippi State will try to grind out a win with defense. Tennessee will seek to play their quick tempo game to counter the defense of the Bulldogs.
The team that controls the pace will likely be cutting the nets down at the end of the day.
Despite their 22 wins and presence in this championship game, the Bulldogs only path to March Madness will be with a victory over the Vols. A down year for the SEC is proving to be costly for bubble squads like Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have at least given the NCAA selection committee something to ponder with their fine play this week.
Mississippi State has allowed an average of only 62 points per game in double digit victories over Georgia, South Carolina and regular season SEC champion LSU. In Saturday's semi-final win over LSU, the Bulldogs limited the Tigers to just 57 points and 31 percent shooting from the field.
After many recent disappointments in the SEC tournament, Tennessee is in the championship game for the first time since 1991. In victories over Alabama and Auburn, the Vols have averaged 90 points per game. In Saturday's win, forward Wayne Chism posted a career-high 27 points as Tennessee shot over 57percent from the field. The Vols also dominated the boards by a count of 40-24.
In their regular season meeting in Knoxville, the Vols set the tempo in an 81-76 victory. Tennessee's defense stepped up to force 17 turnovers while winning the rebounding battle 35-27.
The Bulldogs don't want to get into a track meet with the Vols. In addition, Mississippi State has had to play an extra game to reach this title contest. So, the Bulldogs are the club that could more likely get worn down on Sunday.
Still, the wave of momentum and urgency to win can offset tired legs. Win or lose, the Vols are heading to the NCAA tournament for the fourth straight year under head coach Bruce Pearl. For Mississippi State, this is basically a first-round NCAA game.
In other words, a loss will send the Bulldogs to the NIT. With some situational advantages, Mississippi State's defense comes through again to punch a ticket to the NCAA field of 65.
Final score prediction: Mississippi State 74, Tennessee 73
Big Ten tournament: Championship preview and pick
By DAVE CAREY
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakers (-6)
Only one number matters to third-seeded Purdue.
That’s the number three. As in 3-pointer.
The Boilermakers (24-9, 14-15 ATS) are 22-1 this season when they hold opponents under 64 points but ironically haven’t relied on their defense to advance through the Big Ten tournament. They are a combined 19-of-39 (48 percent) from beyond the arc in their past two games.
Robbie Hummel (12.3 ppg, 6.6 rpg) has been the team‘s catalyst. Hummel had 20 points and five rebounds in a 79-65 win over Penn State in the quarterfinals and followed up with 19 points and 12 rebounds in a 66-56 win over Illinois Saturday.
Hummel, who missed five games this year with a back injury, didn’t play in the team’s 80-72 overtime loss at Ohio State Feb. 3, but poured in 17 points and added four rebounds in a 75-50 win in West Lafayette three weeks later.
For the fifth-seeded Buckeyes (22-9 SU, 16-11 ATS), it comes down to the play of standout sophomore Evan Turner (16.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 3.9 apg).
Turner had 19 points, four rebounds and four assists in a four-point win over Wisconsin Friday. Then he had 18 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in an 82-70 upset of top-seed and regular season champion Michigan State Saturday.
Turner has plenty of help, aided by Freshman of the Year William Buford (11.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and Sixth Man of the Year B.J. Mullens (9.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg).
But even another standout performance from the league’s budding star will not be enough to keep a healthy Purdue team from cutting down the nets Sunday afternoon.
Final score prediction: Purdue 75, Ohio State 63
ACC tournament: Championship preview and picks
By DAVID PAYNE
Florida State Seminoles vs. Duke Blue Devils (-6)
The first thing bettors might want to look at in Sunday’s ACC championship game is the total.
Duke has been an under-producing machine this season, with 20 of its 31 games staying under the total.
Most believed that would change when coach Mike Krzyzewski went to a more versatile and athletic lineup in February. But that hasn’t been the case. Five of the Blue Devils’ last six games have stayed under the total.
Ironically, the only Duke game to eclipse the total during that stretch was a Senior Day showdown against the ACC’s top defensive team, Florida State.
The Noles and Blue Devils have tangled twice this season with Duke winning 84-81 on Senior Day and 66-58 on January 10 in Tallahassee.
Florida State was very much in both games and covered as 12.5-point and 9.5-point dogs respectively.
The Seminoles aren’t getting quite as many points Sunday, and for good reason.
FSU star guard Toney Douglas has been red hot in the tournament and lit up North Carolina for 27 points in Saturday’s semifinal upset. Douglas, an Atlanta native, averaged 22.5 points against the Blue Devils this season.
Defensively, FSU’s big frontcourt makes it extremely difficult to score inside the paint. North Carolina shot just 37 percent Saturday.
Duke could find a few easy buckets on offensive rebounds. Despite its size, Florida State is 11th in the ACC in rebounding margin. The Seminoles can’t afford to surrender offensive rebounds that result in a kick-out 3-pointer for the Blue Devils. Duke has made nine 3-pointers in each of its two tournament wins.
This is the third game in three days for both teams but neither team has a significant advantage in depth.
The Blue Devils probably have a little more to play for. A convincing win would boost their case for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Florida State is projected as a pretty solid third or fourth seed.
Since 1997, either Duke or North Carolina has won the ACC tournament every year except one. Is this the year that changes?
Final score prediction: Duke 63, Florida State 61
Florida State Seminoles vs. Duke Blue Devils
Florida State got 27 points, four assists and four rebounds from Toney Douglas in a 73-70 win over North Carolina in the semifinals of the ACC tournament on Saturday afternoon.
The Seminoles covered the 8-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the posted total of 148.5.
Jon Scheyer scored 22 points and Duke rode a 12-2 second-half run to beat Maryland 67-61 on Saturday and earn a spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament championship game.
The Blue Devils did not cover the 9.5-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the day's posted total of 140.
Team records:
Florida State: 25-8 SU, 18-8-1 ATS
Duke: 27-6 SU, 15-16-1 ATS
Florida State most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 4-6
After playing North Carolina are 6-4
After a win are 5-5
Duke most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 6-4
After playing Maryland are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Duke
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Florida State's last 11 games when playing Duke
Florida State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Florida State is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games when playing Duke
Duke is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Duke is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games when playing Florida State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Duke's last 11 games when playing Florida State
Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Florida State
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Jarvis Varnado scored 19 points to lead Mississippi State to a 67-57 upset win over LSU in the semifinals of the SEC Conference tourney on Saturday afternoon.
The Bulldogs covered the 3.5-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the posted total of 140.
Wayne Chism scored 27 points and Tyler Smith scored 23, to power Tennessee to a 94-85 win over Auburn in the semifinals of the SEC tournament on Saturday afternoon.
The Volunteers covered the 4.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 143.5.
Team records:
Mississippi State: 22-12 SU, 17-12 ATS
Tennessee: 21-11 SU, 16-14 ATS
Mississippi State most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 6-4
After playing LSU are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
Tennessee most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 6-4
After playing Auburn are 5-5
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Mississippi State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Mississippi State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi State
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi State
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Evan Turner totaled 18 points and 10 boards to help lead Ohio State to a 82-70 win over Michigan State in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament on Saturday afternoon.
The Buckeyes covered the 8-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 126.
JaJuan Johnson scored 20 points to power Purdue to a 66-56 win over Illinois in the semifinals of the Big 10 tournament on Saturday afternoon.
The Boilermakers covered the 3.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 118.5.
Team records:
Ohio State: 22-9 SU, 16-11 ATS
Purdue: 24-9 SU, 15-15 ATS
Ohio State most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 5-5
After playing Michigan State are 8-2
After a win are 7-3
Purdue most recently:
When playing on Sunday are 7-3
After playing Illinois are 4-6
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Ohio State is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Purdue
Ohio State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Ohio State is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Purdue
Ohio State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Purdue
Purdue is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Purdue is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Ohio State
Purdue is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games when playing Ohio State
FLORIDA ST (24 - 8) vs. DUKE (26 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DUKE is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in March games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA ST is 3-1 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 3-1 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST (21 - 12) vs. TENNESSEE (20 - 11)
Top Trends for this game.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 52-36 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 52-36 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 44-29 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
TENNESSEE is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
TENNESSEE is 13-32 ATS (-22.2 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 2-1 against the spread versus MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-0 straight up against MISSISSIPPI ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST (21 - 9) vs. PURDUE (23 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
PURDUE is 34-21 ATS (+10.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PURDUE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
PURDUE is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 91-66 ATS (+18.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
PURDUE is 60-87 ATS (-35.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 3-3 against the spread versus OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 5-2 straight up against PURDUE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA STATE vs. DUKE
Florida State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Florida State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Duke
Duke is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Florida State
Duke is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games when playing Florida State
MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. TENNESSEE
Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Mississippi State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi State
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi State
OHIO STATE vs. PURDUE
Ohio State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Ohio State is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Purdue
Purdue is 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Ohio State
Purdue is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games when playing Ohio State
Conference Tournament Thoughts
By Indiancowboy
SEC Championship (Tampa) - St. Pete's Times Forum (CBS)
Miss. State vs. Tennesse
You got to love Miss. State. This team decides to play its basketball down the stretch and Varnado is coming through for them as the "Bigs" are getting it done for them. This team lost to Tennessee earlier this year by 5. Miss. State defeated SEC Regular Season West Champs LSU, a solid South Carolina team and lowly Georgia in the first contest. Tennesse took care of Alabama in the first round with some revenge and Auburn in their latest contest. The off-shore line opened up at -6.5 for Tennessee and took a hit downards. Given that Miss. State needs this game to go to the Dance likely, I like the Bulldogs here as they matched up well in Knoxville, has size to compete with Tennessee and should both the bigs of Tenn a bit - and the Bulldogs have a decent shot at pulling this one outright - lean on the Bulldogs.
Southland Championship (Center Katy, Texas)
Stephen Austin vs. Texas San Antonio
Texas San Antonio is a 19 win team that is ranked in the top 200 in most power rankings. This team shoots over 71% in free throws, barely got by Nicholls State by a bucket and defeated Sam Houston State in the first round by a point. These two teams hooked up in the last game of the regular season, with Texas SA falling short by 4 points at home in a low scoring 62-66 contest. Stephen Austin is the Purdue of today and Texas San Antonio is the Ohio State of today if you want a parallel to the Big10 as to put this game in perspective. The spreads are similar as well sitting around -6.5 for Stephen Austin - the clear favorite. Texas SA finished the conference at 8-8 and Stephen Austin finished the conference at 13-2 in conference play and is a top 100 team in most power rankings. This team is an athletic team but only shoots 66% in FTs. This team just beat a very good Corpus Christie to get by in their last contest. This is likely to be a low scoring game and I just don't want to lay the 6.5 esp. with the weaker FT shooting team - but Stehpen Austin is a solid team that knows how to win SU as they are a 23 game winner this year, defeated Drake on the road earlier this year, beat North Dakota State in triple OT as well.
Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament - Championship - Atlanta, GA
FLORIDA ST vs. DUKE
FLORIDA ST: 6-1 ATS playing with revenge
DUKE: 3-11 ATS in March
SEC Tournament - Championship - Tampa, FL
MISSISSIPPI ST vs. TENNESSEE
MISS ST: 8-1 ATS vs. teams that score 77+ PPG
TENNESSEE: 14-32 ATS in tournament games
Big 10 Conference Tournament - Championship - Indianapolis, IN
OHIO ST vs. PURDUE
OHIO ST: 16-4 ATS vs. Purdue
PURDUE: 5-1 Over playing 2nd road game in less than 3 days
NCAAB Today
Notes on today's games.
ACC tournament (Atlanta)
Florida State is in first-ever ACC tourney final; they lost twice to Duke this season, 66-58 (+9) at home Jan 10 (was 19-14 at half- Duke 25-39 at line, FSU 11-14), 84-81 at Duke March 3 (+11.5- FSU led by six at half). Duke won six of last seven games, is 0-3-1 vs spread in last four. Seminoles are 9-3-1 vs spread as an underdog in ACC games this year.
Big 11 tournament (Indianapolis)
Ohio State won its last four games, by 2-5-4-12 points, since 75-50 loss at Purdue March 1 (+10); Buckeyes beat the Boilers 80-72 at home in OT Feb 3, shooting 60% from floor. OSU is thought to be in field of 65, but you never know- they covered four of last five as underdog. Purdue had lost three of four before this week, but beat Penn State by 14, Illini by 10 in its first two tournament games.
SEC tournament (St Pete)
Mississippi State won, covered its last five games; they were underdog in three of last four, are trying to win four games in four days (Georgia did same thing at SEC tourney LY). State (+8) lost 81-76 at Tennessee Feb 25. Vols won five of last six games, scoring 79+ points in all five of the wins. Bulldogs probably need win to make NCAAs, Vols are in.
Tips and Trends
SEC Title: Mississippi State vs. Tennessee
MSU: The Bulldogs will be playing their fourth game in four days and will be making their first conference championship appearance since 2003. They won it in 1996 and 2002 and are led inside by Jarvis Varnado, who owns the SEC single-season blocked shots record. Varnado had 19 points and seven blocks in a 67-57 upset of top-seeded LSU and will need to continue his strong play if Mississippi State is to beat Tennessee for the SEC title.
MSU is 5-0 SU & ATS in its last 5 games overall.
The OVER is 8-3-1 in MSU's last 12 games overall.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 72
Tennessee (-4.5,O/U 149): The Vols are playing in their first SEC championship game since 1991 after disappointing in recent years. “I’ve played in this tournament three times and came up short a lot,” Tennessee center Wayne Chism said. “To finally play on a Sunday, that’s very good.” Chism scored a career-high 27 points in a 94-85 win over Auburn on Saturday, and his team has the opportunity to earn as high as a four seed in the NCAA tournament with one more victory and an automatic berth.
Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The UNDER is 12-5 in Tennessee's last 17 games overall.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 77
ACC Title: #22 Florida State vs. #8 Duke
Florida State: While the Seminoles are certainly happy to be playing for the ACC championship, they would love nothing more than to beat both North Carolina and Duke en route to the title. Florida State guard Toney Douglas grew up 15 miles away from the Georgia Dome and came up huge against the Tar Heels on Saturday with 27 points in a 73-70 victory. “He has supreme confidence, and we have supreme confidence in him that if we get him into position, then something good is going to happen,” said Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton of Douglas. “We’ve come a long way,” Douglas said. “But we’re still hungry. We’re never satisfied.”
Florida State is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
The UNDER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 62 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)
Duke (-6, O/U 134): The Blue Devils obviously won't get a chance to avenge two losses to North Carolina during the regular season, which makes you wonder if they will be motivated enough against Florida State. The Seminoles have covered five of the last six meetings and eight of the last 10 despite winning only three times during that stretch. “You have to be careful what you wish for,” Duke guard Jon Scheyer said. “Obviously, we’d like another shot at Carolina. It will be tough against Florida State. We just played Florida State so we know how good of a team they are.”
Duke is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games overall.
The UNDER is 9-1 in Duke's last 10 neutral site games.
Key Injuries – NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 68
Big Ten Title: Ohio State at #24 Purdue
Ohio State: The Buckeyes have won four straight following an 82-70 upset of top-seeded Michigan State on Saturday. They had gone 1-4 prior to the winning streak and have previously won the conference tournament in 2002 and 2007. “I think those guys are starting to come together,” Ohio State head coach Thad Matta said. “Hopefully we’ll see that improve as we keep moving forward.” “I just think we’re really focused right now,” Buckeyes guard Evan Turner said. “We just came together. This was a good team win all around. We all keyed in for 40 minutes to play hard.”
Ohio State is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Sunday games.
The UNDER is 16-5 in Ohio State's last 21 Sunday games.
Key Injuries - NONE
PROJECTED SCORE: 56
Purdue (-6, O/U 124): The Boilermakers are making just their second appearance in the Big Ten championship game and have turned things around in a major way after dropping three of their last four games to end the regular season. They have won each of their first two tourney games by double digits with a healthy Robbie Hummel leading the way. Hummel is finally healthy again after suffering from a back injury, and his teammates are also playing with confidence. “I think we’ve just been coming out with a lot of intensity,” Purdue center JaJuan Johnson said. “We had a bitter taste in our mouths coming into this tournament. I think it’s important having these wins going into the NCAA tournament.”
Purdue is 4-12-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
The OVER is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings.
Key Injuries - G Chris Kramer (thigh) has returned.
PROJECTED SCORE: 68 (Side Play of the Day)