Bettors Should Expect the Unexpected Sunday
Doug Upstone
Typically Sunday is the day where more upsets occur in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. In this round, the lower seeds have managed to win about 43 percent (36-48) straight up and covered the spread a money making 53 percent of the time. This can lead to all kinds of madness and the potential for lower seeds to win outright or at the very least cover oddsmakers spreads exist. Here are the possibilities for upsets today.
(6)Arizona State vs (-3) Syracuse
Do you think N.C. State has more respect for former coach Herb Sendek now? Arizona State is one of five teams that advanced to second round out of the Pac-10 and Sendek has turned around a dormant Sun Devils program that would frequently have less than a hundred students at games. Even more amazing, is the fact ASU made it to this matchup with Syracuse, when you realize Pac-10 player of the year James Harden has nine points on 1 for 8 shooting versus Temple. Point guard Derek Glasser filled in the scoring void with career-high 22 points and lifted Arizona State to 19-11 ATS on the year.
Syracuse is bad matchup for many teams, since they have scoring options all over the floor. Jonny Flynn has been the best point guard in the country the last 10 days and Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins are trigger-happy assassins who kill opposing teams with there shooting ability. Arinze Onuaku and Paul Harris do a nice job on the inside and the defensive intensity has picked up with Orangemen on 8-1 SU and ATS roll. Syracuse is a two-point pick and it would hardly be an upset if the Sun Devils shine and come out on top.
(11) Dayton vs (3) Kansas
What might have been the quietest upset of the first round was Dayton controlling West Virginia from the opening minutes as 9.5-point underdogs. The Flyers had been written off since losing point guard Rob Lowery and were only 3-4 in last seven contests. However, Dayton is a quality defensive team in holding foes to 39.6 percent shooting and Chris Wright dunked the Mountaineers into the off-season with 24 points. This was Dayton’s first tournament win in 19 years and they are 8-3 ATS against teams with winning records.
Kansas stood up against a game North Dakota State squad and keeps alive the dream of defending national championship. The Jayhawks will want to step up tempo and force Dayton to play at their pace and are 16-4 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or less turnovers a game this season. Kansas is a 7.5-point favorite and is one of a trio of three-seeds playing today and this group is 10-2 and 8-4 ATS this round since 2006.
(13) Cleveland State vs (12) Arizona
Almost every year is one crazy matchup nobody saw coming and this is the one. Arizona’s Big 3 played up to and beyond expectations, scoring 66 of the Wildcats 84 points. Arizona was among the last teams invited to the dance and played like they should have been invited unquestionably. The ‘Cats are 11-2 ATS playing against teams with 60-80 win percentage this season, but won’t be able to play the underdog card again in Miami.
Cleveland State played like they should have been the fourth seed in whipping Wake Forest 84-69. The Vikings have won 13 of 15 (9-5-1 ATS) and are playing with supreme confidence. Cleveland State is making first tournament appearance in 23 years and this squad is noted for defense. The Vikings are 10-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest this season and like Arizona did Friday, can play loose with nothing to lose as three-point dogs.
(8) Oklahoma State vs (1) Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh was the least impressive of the number one seeds in the opening round and will have to step up defensive passion against a team that can shoot the orange. Oklahoma State has little size, but is big on heart, with excellent shooting range. Okie State shot 56.6 percent against Tennessee, making seven 3’s and attacked the rim like bunch of cowboys at a $9.99 all-you-can-eat steak joint after working cattle all day. These Cowboys are similar to their coach Travis Ford, who is a fiery sort and won’t back off a challenge. Oklahoma State is 9-2 and 10-1 ATS since Valentine’s Day.
Pittsburgh needed 38 minutes to finally distance themselves from East Tennessee State and looked like they deserve the tag of NCAA tournament underachiever. The sloppy Panthers will have to bring their hearts and get into the game from the start or the Cowboys could shoot Pitt right out of the tournament. Pittsburgh is a noteworthy 10-2 ATS versus teams who make eight or more three-point shots a game and are favored by eight.
(6) Marquette vs (3) Missouri
Marquette lived to tell about Utah State’s comeback and moved to next round with 58-57 squeaker. The Golden Eagles shot ugly 36.2 percent, however converted 19 of 23 attempts from the charity stripe to preserve victory. Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews can not go a combined 6 for 26 if Marquette has visions of trip to Glendale, AZ.
Missouri is a four-point favorite in this contest of Midwestern universities and will try to make pressing defense take its toll on thin Marquette squad. The Tigers will wear out teams, even teams who protect the ball like the Golden Eagles; with 14-4 ATS record vs. clubs committing 14 or fewer turnovers a game this year. Marquette can create the upset, if they shoot the ball better and Missouri goes into one of their shootings funks which has happened this season.
(10) USC vs (2) Michigan State
This is the classic 10 vs 2 second round matchup and USC has the momentum and talent to advance. The Trojans buried Boston College, doubling them up 42-21 in the second half. Taj Gibson led the onslaught, with 24 points and 10-for-10 shooting from the field. USC has now won and covered six straight, shooting over 50 percent and playing normal Tim Floyd defense. Don’t expect the Trojans to be worn out either, since two games in three days is the norm in the Pac-10 and they are 24-11 ATS in this set up.
Michigan State is four-point favorite and is 7-1 ATS away from East Lansing versus teams shooting 45 percent or better, with defense holding opponents to 42 percent or less. Don’t sell USC short, since they are 26-12 ATS as an underdog. No. 10 seeds are 9-5 ATS in second round since 2000.
(9) Siena vs (1) Louisville
Louisville went through the motions in the first half against Morehead State before asserting themselves in the final 20 minutes to put them away. A similar pattern of play might prove fatal for the tournament’s top-rated team. Siena’s fast paced style of play was reduced to a crawl by Ohio State. The Saints needed 50 minutes to finally overcome the Buckeyes 74-72, despite making only 33.3 percent of their shots. How they managed to hang in was controlling the glass with overwhelming 17 rebound edge (51-34). Betmania.com has Siena receiving 11.5-points, with total of 141 and they might need it all and more. All five starters played a minimum of 44 minutes in Friday’s contest and facing the Louisville pressure has proven to be physically and mentally fatiguing for opposing teams. Siena is 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 7.0 to 12.5 points, while Louisville is 10-2 ATS after a game shooting 57 percent or higher and allowing 43 percent shooting or less.
(12) Wisconsin vs (4) Xavier
If you prefer grind it out possession after possession basketball, you should be in luck with Xavier taking on Wisconsin. Actually the Musketeers can get up and down the court, averaging 72.5 points game, on 46.5 percent shooting. Xavier has a superb deep game, tossing in 40 percent from beyond the arc and they are 6-0 ATS against Big Ten teams.
Wisconsin can play 94-feet also; they just walk it, as opposed to running back and forth. The Badgers are capable of the upset if they continue to heave them in from long distance. They made nine three-pointers after the intermission to surprise Florida State. This is the Badgers 11th appearance in the second round and they are 15-2 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog. Oddsmakers are giving Wisky four points with a total of 122.5.