Sunday's Elite 8 Action
By Chris David
Sunday’s college basketball slate features two more regional finals on tap and both of the matchups are intriguing. Michigan State and Tennessee will open up the action in the Midwest Bracket from St. Louis in an expected grinder. The two schools have walked through similar paths this season, with the Spartans overcoming injuries and the Volunteers playing through suspensions. The late game happens in the South Bracket, when Duke squares off against Baylor from Houston in what should be considered a road contest for the Blue Devils.
If you handicap this pair of games based on coaching, then most would run to the counter and lay serious cash on Michigan State and Duke here. Tom Izzo and Mike Krzyzewski have been in this game a lot longer than Bruce Pearl and Scott Drew, and the two legends have made their names in situations like this.
Elite Eight History
Duke, Mike Krzyzewski
1986 Duke 71 Navy 50
1988 Duke 63 Temple 53
1989 Duke 85 Georgetown 77
1990 Duke 79 UConn 78 (OT)
1991 Duke 78 St. Johns 61
1992 Duke 104 Kentucky 103 (OT)
1994 Duke 69 Purdue 60
1998 Duke 84 Kentucky 86
1999 Duke 85 Temple 64
2001 Duke 79 USC 69
2004 Duke 66 Xavier 63
Michigan State, Tom Izzo
1999 Michigan State 73 Kentucky 66
2000 Michigan State 75 Iowa State 64
2001 Michigan State 69 Temple 62
2003 Michigan State 76 Texas 85
2005 Michigan State 94 Kentucky 88 (2 OT)
2009 Michigan State 64 Louisville 52
Looking at the above table, the two coaches are a combined 15-2 in Elite Eight matchups. Granted, Duke hasn’t been to the regional final since 2004 but when Coach K gets there he wins and six of the victories came by nine points or more. His lone loss was in 1998, a two-point decision (84-86) to Kentucky, who wound up cutting down the nets under head coach Tubby Smith.
Izzo has been nearly as automatic as Coach K in the regional finals and he was there last year too. In his previous six trips to the Elite Eight, the Spartans have gone 5-1 under Izzo with the lone loss happening in 2003 to a talented Texas squad led by point guard T.J. Ford.
Even though the pedigree edge sides with Duke and Michigan State, any handicapper will tell you that current form is just as important.
With that being said, let’s look at each matchup for Sunday.
Midwest Regional - No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 5 Michigan State
Tennessee (28-8 SU, 15-16 ATS) didn’t get much respect heading into the tournament and deservingly so. Bruce Pearl’s team was blasted by Kentucky (45-74) in the SEC Tournament semifinals, plus they were pitted in the first round against San Diego State. The Aztecs got a lot of love from the locals in Las Vegas after watching them win the Mountain West Conference over UNLV.
Despite those accolades, the Volunteers nipped San Diego State 62-59 before cruising past Ohio 83-68 in the second round. Not a lot of pundits expected Tennessee to compete with No. 2 Ohio State in the Sweet Sixteen, but Pearl and company earned a hard fought 76-73 win on Friday.
The Vols shot 47 percent from the field and dominated the Buckeyes on the boards (36-21) en route to their first Elite Eight appearance in school history. Wayne Chism posted 22 points and 11 rebounds and J.P. Prince added 14 points to go with a big block at the buzzer on Ohio State’s Evan Turner, who finished with 31 points. The outcome could’ve been bigger considering Tennessee’s defense held Ohio State to 43 percent from the field, but the Buckeyes countered with nine 3-pointers.
UT’s defense will have to step on Sunday when it meets its second straight Big 10 opponent, Michigan State (27-8 SU, 14-20 ATS). The Spartans rallied past Northern Iowa 59-52 in the Sweet Sixteen by outscoring the Panthers by 14 points (37-23) in the final 20 minutes. Michigan State’s defense was intense in the second half, holding UNI to just five field goals. Even more impressive, UNI had 10 points in the final 10 minutes, all coming from the free throw line.
The 23 points scored by the Spartans in the opening 20 minutes on Friday was a little bit of a surprise, considering they posted 42 and 48 first-half points in tournament victories over New Mexico State (70-67) and Maryland (85-83) respectively. However, UNI likes to slow down the tempo and MSU was playing its first game without leading scorer Kalin Lucas, who ruptured his Achilles’ tendon in the second round win last weekend.
His backup Korie Lucious (10 points) wasn’t sensational but he did the little things (6 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals) to help the Spartans hold off UNI. His backcourt mate Durrell Summers (19 points) kept the Panthers in check as well, with four big bombs from 3-point land.
Michigan State owns an all-time record of 4-2 over Tennessee but the two schools haven’t played since 1994. Pearl owns a 2-3 record versus Big 10 schools since taking over the head coaching duties in Knoxville. For what it’s worth, Tennessee has thrived playing on CBS this season. Including their 3-0 mark in the tournament, the Vols have defeated Kansas (76-68), Florida (61-60) and Kentucky (74-65) on the network this season. Also, UT has gone 3-0 on Sunday’s this season.
Oddsmakers opened the Volunteers as 1 ½-point favorites and the line moved to 2 quickly. The total has been hovering between 135 and 136. Betting the ‘under’ on Tennessee (19-9) and Michigan State (18-15) has been profitable for both schools.
The winner of this game will meet Butler in the Final Four.
Tip off for this contest is slated for 2:20 p.m. EDT.
South Regional - No. 1 Duke vs. No. 3 Baylor
Baylor (28-7 SU, 18-10 ATS) caught a nice draw in the South Regional and the school from Waco has taken advantage of it. The Bears stopped Sam Houston State (68-59) in a lackluster effort in the first round before holding off Old Dominion (76-68) two days later. While those wins were expected, not many could’ve predicted a 23-point (72-49) win over St. Mary’s in the Sweet Sixteen. The game wasn’t as close as the final outcome, as the Bears led by as many as 31over the Gaels and coasted from the start.
The backcourt of LaceDarius Dunn (23) and Tweety Carter (14) combined for 37 points, 21 of them coming from 3-point land. Baylor led 46-17 at halftime, largely due to a St. Mary’s squad that couldn’t buy a shot (35%) all night. The Bears won despite getting nothing out of their brusing forward Ekpe Udoh (eight points).
Baylor is more known for its up-tempo style that averaged 77.1 PPG this season but the attack has failed to eclipse that number in the tournament. Conversely, the defense only allowed 65.3 PPG prior to the tournament and two of the three opponents in the tourney were held under that number.
Duke (32-5 SU, 21-13 ATS) was ranked 25th nationally in scoring (77.4 PPG) but the offense was less than stellar in opening round wins over Arkansas-Pine Bluff (73-44) and California (68-53). Fortunately, the Blue Devils found their groove late in the Sweet 16 against Purdue en route to a 70-57 victory. Duke put up a 46-spot in the second half over the Boilermakers, which helped them cover as an eight-point favorite. Kyle Singler led all scorers with 24 points and Jon Scheyer added 18 points after a terrible start.
The only constant for the Blue Devils this season has been their defense, which has been even better lately. Eight of the last 10 opponents for Duke have been held to 61 or less and the ‘under’ has cashed in all of those contests. Only five schools have beaten Duke this season – Wisconsin (73), Georgia Tech (71), N.C. State (88), Georgetown (89), Maryland (79) – and all five scored 70-plus points. If you want to beat Duke, you better hit your shots and get to the free throw line.
Sportsbook.com has installed Duke as a four-point favorite, while the total is listed at 140. Gamblers expecting Baylor to cut down the nets in its backyard can take a shot at a plus-175 (Bet $100 to win $175) price on the money-line.
This contest is expected to tip at 5:05 p.m. EDT.
Duke or Baylor will meet West Virginia in the Final Four next Saturday from Indianapolis.
vegasinsider.com
South Regional Elite Eight Pick
By PATRICK GARBIN
No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (-4.5, 140)
The South Region’s finale matches a pair of teams who have both utilized intimidating defenses to reach the Elite Eight and two squads no one would remotely want to face right now.
That was evident when Baylor drilled St. Mary’s or “America’s team”, as Gaels center Omar Samhan dubbed he and his teammates, Friday. Samhan had carried Cinderella St. Mary’s through the first two rounds but, when matched up against the Bears’ fierce 2-3 zone defense, struggled mightily in a 72-49 victory for Baylor.
Duke continued its impressive march through the Big Dance, advancing to the round of eight for the first time since 2004 in its win over Purdue. After leading 24-23 at halftime in what was a defensive struggle, the Blue Devils turned to their offense in the second half in a 70-57 victory.
But it was Duke’s defense and rebounding that once again was the difference in the win. The Blue Devils out-rebounded Purdue 45-to-22 and have a remarkable plus-14.3 rebounding margin for the tournament.
As good as Duke is defensively and crashing/defending the boards, Baylor – the quickest team in the field – might actually be better. This season, the Bears rank ninth in the entire country in rebounding margin (+7.2) while their opponents have shot only 37 percent from the field in their three tournament victories.
The Blue Devils could have success shooting from the perimeter against Baylor’s zone and it appears Jon Scheyer might have found his shooter’s touch. After shooting just 21 percent from the field in Duke’s first two and a half games of the tournament, the standout guard made 5-of-9 field goals in the second half against Purdue.
The Bears have the added advantage of playing a near-home game. Against St. Mary’s, it was estimated that roughly 25,000 of the 40,000 in attendance at the Reliant Center was wearing Baylor green and gold.
“Baylor Nation was here,” said forward Quincy Acy, “and they were out and strong, and brought more fuel to us.”
This game should be close and picking its winner is a tough call. Either way, whichever team plays its way to the Final Four in Indianapolis, Baylor covers the points.
Final score prediction: Baylor 70, Duke 68
Midwest Regional Elite Eight Pick
By ADAM THOMPSON
No. 5 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (-1, 135.5)
We will either see someone familiar or someone new go to the Final Four from the Midwest Regional.
Tennessee (28-8) is never been to the Elite Eight before this year, let alone a Final Four. Michigan State (27-8), one of the nation’s powers, seeks a sixth Final Four trip since 1999.
Finally, a team took advantage of Ohio State’s lack of depth. Tennessee had 10 players see action Friday, compared to OSU’s seven (one more than usual, due to foul trouble). Fatigue finally nailed the Buckeyes during crunch time and the Vols earned a 76-73 win.
“I told our team, ‘It’s our team vs. their six,’” Volunteers coach Bruce Pearl said after the victory. “We were a better 10 than their six.”
The J.P. Prince trend came through again for Tennessee. In the Vols’ last 13 games, they’re 10-0 when the 6-foot-7 guard scores in double figures and 0-3 when he doesn’t. He had 14 points, second on the team behind Wayne Chism, who had a great game down low, with 22 points and 11 rebounds.
Michigan State rallied from a 7-point halftime deficit to get past upstart Northern Iowa 59-52.
And it was Korie Lucious who hit the big shot again. Thrown into the fire after the team’s best player, Kalin Lucas, went down with a ruptured Achilles, Lucious’ spin-around jumper in the closing moments clinched the victory.
Lucious scored 10 points, while Durrell Summers had 19 points and seven rebounds. Summers, who averages 10.7 ppg, had 26 points when the Spartans got past Maryland 85-83 in the second round and has become a big X-factor for MSU the way Prince is for Tennessee.
Tennessee outrebounded Ohio State 36-23, with a whopping 18 boards on the offensive end. The Spartans average nearly 10 more rebounds per game than their opponent. If the Vols can hold their own on the glass, that can go a long way.
Buckeyes coach Thad Matta said Tennessee’s defense had been under-covered by the media all season and it was the toughest his team had faced this season.
This may be a rare instance where the proof lies with the oddsmakers. In Tennessee’s last 48 games, the under is 33-14-1.
Lucious was a difference maker for MSU Friday. He also had six rebounds, four assists and four steals with only two turnovers. But compared to the “don’t let them get past you” defense of the Panthers, the Volunteers will unleash a new level of on-the-ball pressure the inexperienced point guard has yet to see.
And whereas Michigan State overmatched Northern Iowa in athleticism, the Spartans may look sluggish compared to their opponent Sunday.
The depth and athleticism of the Volunteers may finally be too much for the banged-up Spartans, who have gotten by with lots of heart but no Lucas and hobbled starters Chris Allen and Delvon Roe.
If Chism can stay out of foul trouble down low and not allow scores of second-half points by the Spartans — and make sure Lucious doesn’t thrive outside — Tennessee will be going to the Final Four for the first time.
Prediction: Tennessee 71, Michigan State 66
(6) Tennessee (28-8, 15-16-2 ATS) vs. (5) Michigan State (27-8, 14-20 ATS)
Tennessee posted its first Sweet 16 victory in school history Friday, upsetting second-seeded Ohio State 76-73 as a 4½-point underdog. Since getting destroyed by Kentucky in the SEC tournament semifinals (74-45 as a 4½-point pup), the Volunteers have gone 3-0 in the Tournament (2-1 ATS). Going back to Feb. 27, Tennessee is on an 8-1 SU run (5-3-1 ATS), and it is 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) in its last 12 contests. However, both defeats were double-digit blowouts.
Michigan State rallied from a seven-point halftime deficit and dumped ninth-seeded Northern Iowa 59-52 as a one-point favorite on Friday. The Spartans won their seventh consecutive Sweet 16 game despite not having team leader and top scorer Kalin Lucas, who suffered a season-ending Achilles’ injury in Michigan State’s one-point buzzer-beating victory over Maryland a week ago. Since experiencing a three-game losing streak in the middle of the Big Ten season, the Spartans have won eight of its last 10, going just 6-4 ATS during this stretch.
While this is Tennessee’s first Elite Eight trip in history, the Spartans were here just a season ago, and they dominated Louisville 64-52 as a 4½-point underdog en route to the national championship game. Going back to 1979, when it won the first of two national championships, Michigan State is 6-1 in the Elite Eight, and it is seeking its eighth Final Four appearance all-time and third since 2005.
Tennessee is now 8-2 at neutral sites this season (5-4-1 ATS), averaging 71 ppg while allowing 63.4 ppg. Michigan State has still only played six neutral-site contests (including the last four in a row), going 4-2 (3-3 ATS) while pouring in 76.8 ppg and surrendering 69.8 ppg.
The Volunteers are in pointspread slumps of 3-7-2 as a Tournament favorite, 1-5-2 when laying less than seven points in the Tournament, 1-4 on Sunday and 1-7 after a spread-cover, but otherwise they’re on pointspread upticks of 5-0-1 in non-conference play, 5-1-1 versus the Big Ten and 5-1-1 against winning teams.
Michigan State is on ATS surges of 7-2 in the Tournament, 6-2 as an underdog of less than seven points, 6-2-1 as a neutral-site pup, 4-1 when catching less than seven points in the Big Dance, 6-1 against SEC opponents and 21-8 on Sunday. However, the Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-league contests and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus winning teams.
It’s been all “unders” for Tennessee lately, including 33-14-1 overall (22-9-1 last 32), 8-4 in non-league play, 6-2-1 at neutral sites, 7-2-1 as a favorite, 5-1-1 as a chalk at neutral sites, 10-1 on Sunday and 22-10-1 after a SU win. Conversely, the Spartans are on “over” stretches of 5-2 at neutral sites, 4-1 as a neutral-site underdog, 4-1 as a pup in the Big Dance and 5-2 against the SEC, but the under is 30-11-1 in Michigan State’s last 42 as an underdog (26-9 as a pup of less than seven points).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(3) Baylor (28-7, 18-10 ATS) vs. (1) Duke (32-5, 21-13-2 ATS)
Baylor earned a trip to the regional finals for the first time since 1950 with a thoroughly dominating 72-49 rout of 10th-seeded St. Mary’s on Friday, easily covering as a five-point favorite. The Bears, who are in the Big Dance for just the fourth time ever and first time in 49 years, have won their three tourney games by comfortable margins (9, 8 and 23 points). Baylor is on an 11-2 SU run, going 6-2 ATS in the last eight following a 1-5 ATS downturn.
Duke toyed with its two first-round opponents in Jacksonville, Fla., last weekend – pounding Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Cal by 29 and 15 points, respectively. However, in Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup against Purdue, the Blue Devils found themselves in a dogfight until the final 10 minutes of the second half, when they broke free and won going away 70-57 as an 8½-point favorite. Duke has won seven in a row and 15 of its last 17, and of the Devils’ five losses this season, four have come against teams that reached the Tournament (Maryland, Georgetown, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin).
Defense has proven to be the difference for both teams in the Tournament. Baylor has held Sam Houston State, Old Dominion and St. Mary’s to a combined 65-for-175 from the field (37.1 percent), while Duke’s three foes (Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Cal and Purdue) have averaged 51.3 ppg on 36.1 percent shooting (56-for-155).
The last time Baylor won consecutive games in the Big Dance was in 1948, which was also its only Final Four appearance.
Duke has made 34 Tournament appearances in school history, including 14 in a row, and it is a No. 1 seed for the 11th time overall and the sixth time this decade. However, this is the first time since 2004 that the Blue Devils have reached the Elite Eight, which was also their most recent Final Four appearance. They’ve won three straight Elite Eight contests (2-1 ATS) dating to 1999.
Baylor is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at neutral venues, winning by an average of 9.7 ppg (73.8-64.1). Duke has won all 10 of its neutral-site contests this season (7-3 ATS), outscoring opponents by 15.1 ppg (70.4-55.3).
The Bears sport ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 8-1 in non-conference action, 20-7 at neutral sites, 10-4 as an underdog, 10-3 as a neutral-site pup, 6-1 after a SU win and 5-1 on Sunday. Meanwhile, Duke has cashed in all three Tournament games so far after failing to cover in 10 of 12 prior to this season. The Blue Devils are still just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 as a Big Dance chalk (1-6 when laying less than seven points), but they’re on positive pointspread stretches 7-3 at neutral sites (all as a favorite), 4-1 against the Big 12 and 7-1-1 on Sunday.
Baylor has stayed low in six of eight in non-league play, but otherwise is on “over” surges of 5-2 overall, 14-3 after a SU win, 11-2 after a spread-cover (8-1 last nine), 6-0 as an underdog and 4-0 as a pup of less than seven points. Duke carries “under” trends of 5-1-1 overall (4-0 last four), 18-6-1 at neutral sites (all as a favorite), 8-3-1 in the Tournament (4-0 last four), 12-4-1 when laying points in the Big Dance, 4-0 on Sunday and 26-12-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NCAAB News and Notes
Izzo is 5-1 in regional finals; Tennessee is in its first regional final; Vols threw their best player off team in January. Spartans lost their PG with an achilles injury last week. State shot just 38% vs New Mexico State, were -12 in turnovers vs Maryland, were down 7 at the half vs Northern Iowa Friday night- they keep finding ways to win. Vols split two games vs Big 11 foes, with games decided by total of four points. Spartans lost to Florida in their only game vs SEC opponent. Chism won't hurt MSU inside the way he did Ohio State.
Added stat on this game: Tennessee-Michigan State is just 4th regional final game since '85 where neither team was a #1-4 seed; in three other games, underdogs won twice, both in '00, when two #8 seeds made the Final Four (North Carolina/Wisconsin).
By my count, Coach K is 10-1 in regional finals, losing to Kentucky in '98; underdog covered five of last six regional finals Duke played in, with Blue Devils 1-4 vs spread in last five regional finals they were favored to win. #1 seeds are 7-5 vs spread in regional finals last three years; this is first time since '06 we have regional finals without a #1 seed. Baylor is a really good team, as good as Duke- my biggest question about them is-- do they think they can beat the name on front of Duke's jerseys? Bears crushed a good St Mary's team Friday, but fact is, their three tourney wins are against teams from Southland/CAA/WCC. Now they're seeing a team that is on ESPN when they eat breakfast-- do the Bears believe in themselves? If so, I think they'll win this game.
Tips and Trends
Baylor Bears vs. Duke Blue Devils
Bears: Baylor is turning into America's team, as they have had quite the program overhaul in the past 7 years. Coach Scott Drew has done an outstanding job turning this program around, as they can get to the Final Four for the 3rd time in school history, and the 1st time since 1950. Baylor comes into today's contest off a demolishing blowout of 23 PTS against St. Mary's. Baylor is starting to get the respect that a 28-7 SU team should get. The Bears are 18-10 ATS in addition to their 28-7 SU record this entire season. Baylor is 13-6 SU and 12-7 ATS away from home this season, including 7-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in neutral court scenarios this season. The Bears are 5-3 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Baylor excels in non-conference games this season, going 8-2 ATS. The Bears also have tasted success against good defensive teams, going 5-1 ATS against teams that allow 64 PPG or less this season. Baylor has scored at least 70 PTS in 10 of their past 11 contests. The Bears have 3 players that average at least 13 PPG this season, led by G LaceDarius Dunn. Dunn averaged a team high 19.5 PPG, including 3.3 three pointers per game this year.
Baylor is 10-3 ATS last 13 neutral site games as an underdog.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 72
Blue Devils (-5, O/U 140): How ironic is it that Duke is the last remaining #1 seed alive in the NCAA Tournament? This Duke program is either loved or hated, but the simple fact is many people think this program is simply overrated. Duke is a proud program that has been to 11 Final Fours under the coaching regime of Mike Krzyzewski. Despite all that sucess, it's surprising to know that Duke hasn't made it to the Final Four since 2004. The Blue Devils enter tonight's contest with overall records of 32-5 SU and 21-13-2 ATS this season. The Blue Devils are 15-5 SU and 10-9-1 ATS on the road this season, including a sparking 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in neutral court games. Duke is 21-14 ATS as the listed favorite this season, including 8-6-1 ATS as a single digit favorite. Duke has been winning with defense all season long, as that's what has made them a dominant favorite this year. Duke is 10-1 ATS against dynamic offenses that average at least 77 PPG this season. The Blue Devils average 77 PPG this season, yet have been held under that total in each of their past 6 games.
Blue Devils are 7-3 ATS last 10 neutral site games as a favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 NCAA Tournament games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 76 (OVER - Total of the Day)