Sunday's Best NCAAB Bet
Florida State Seminoles at North Carolina State Wolfpack (Pk, 137.5)
Seminoles star Chris Singleton went down with a broken foot two weeks ago and all seemed lost for his team. But now, the only thing standing between Florida State and sole possession of third place in the Atlantic Coast Conference is a trip to Raleigh.
And the Seminoles have had no problem playing away from Tallahassee this season. The squad is great at taking its defense on the road, going 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS in opponents' gyms this year. On the season, opponents are shooting a mere 36.5 percent from the field this season against the ‘Noles, the lowest average in the country.
Over the team’s past 97 games, 94 opponents have failed to break the 50 percent shooting mark.
Florida State is actually poised to improve on those numbers--if that’s possible. Ian Miller, Xavier Gibson and Terrance Shannon all recently returned from injury, bolstering the squad’s bench and making it one of the deepest teams in the league.
"When you take into consideration that Xavier is just trying to get back," head coach Leonard Hamilton said. "Terrance is coming off of surgery. Ian is trying to get back, acclimated. It's really still difficult to assess where they really, really are."
Florida State might not be the top team in the ACC, but it can do enough to dispose of a weak Wolfpack for the second time this season.
Pick: Florida State
Wisconsin at Ohio State: What Bettors Need to Know
Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-7.5, 128.5)
THE STORY: Top-ranked Ohio State looks to win the Big Ten regular season crown outright when it hosts No. 10 Wisconsin Sunday afternoon. The Buckeyes will also be out to avenge their first defeat of the season, a 71-67 defeat in Madison, Wisconsin on Feb. 12.
Ohio State has won its last three games by at least 19 points each, including identical 82-61 routs of Indiana and Penn State. The Badgers extended their current winning streak to four with a 77-67 victory at Indiana Thursday. Junior guard Jordan Taylor scored a career-best 39 points.
ABOUT WISCONSIN (23-6, 13-4 Big Ten, 15-10-0 ATS): The Badgers have won eight of nine, with the lone blemish a 70-62 setback at Purdue on Feb. 16 — a game that came just four days after Wisconsin's win over Ohio State.
Wisconsin leads the nation in free-throw percentage (83.0), assist-turnover ratio (1.8) and fewest turnovers per game (7.51), and is also second in scoring defense (57.9). Senior forward Jon Leuer averages 19 points and 7.4 rebounds to lead the team, while Taylor posts 18.6 points and 4.9 assists an outing. The Badgers are 5-5 in true road games with a 5-5 mark against the spread.
ABOUT OHIO STATE (27-2, 14-2, 14-13-0 ATS): The Buckeyes will be looking for a school-record 20th home victory in as many outings. Freshman forward Jared Sullinger heads an extremely balanced attack with 17.1 points and 9.8 rebounds per game, while three Buckeyes guards are also scoring in double figures — junior William Buford (14.3), senior David Lighty (12.3) and senior Jon Diebler (11.8).
Ohio State ranks third nationally in field-goal percentage (49.5), turnover margin (5.5) and assist-turnover ratio (1.53) and is fourth in scoring margin (17.8). The Buckeyes also lead the Big Ten in scoring (77.4), 3-point shooting percentage (40.5) and steals (7.7).
WHO'S HOT/WHO’S NOT: In addition to coming off a career-best scoring night, Taylor leads the country in assist-turnover ratio (4.15) and is poised to break the NCAA mark of 3.96, set by Utah State's Tyler Newbold in 2008-09... Diebler scored a career-high 30 points at Penn State, hitting 10 of 12 3-point shots... Sullinger has five double-doubles in Ohio State's last eight games.
KEY STATISTIC: Wisconsin is on track to set a pair of NCAA team records — free-throw percentage (Harvard shot 82.2 percent in 1983-84) and turnovers per game (Temple averaged 7.72 in 2005-06).
RECENT HISTORY: The home team has won each of the last five meetings over the past three seasons. Ohio State won last year in Columbus, 60-51, covering as a 5.5-point favorite.
LOOKING AHEAD: Both teams have clinched first-round byes in the Big Ten Tournament and spots in Friday's quarterfinal round.
LAST WORD: A victory over the Badgers could potentially clinch Ohio State a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens in the conference tourney. Wisconsin, meanwhile, could still conceivably climb as high as a No. 2 seed in the next week if it were to sweep the Buckeyes.
TRENDS:
- Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Ohio State.
- Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
- Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last four road games.
- Under is 19-8 in Badgers last 27 road games.
NCAA Betting Preview: Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State
By: Michael Robinson
The Ohio State Buckeyes look to wrap up a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tourney, and get some revenge in the process, when they host the Wisconsin Badgers on Sunday afternoon.
The Buckeyes (28-2 straight-up, 14-13 against the spread) were a perfect 24-0 SU when they traveled to Madison on Feb. 12 to face the Badgers. They were in command with a 15-point second-half lead, but a barrage of three-pointers led to a stunning 71-67 Wisconsin win as two-point favorites.
Jordan Taylor had 21 points in the final 13 minutes (27 overall) and Wisconsin’s 12-of-24 from ‘three’ was the difference in the game.
Ohio State did rebound with a home win over Michigan State (71-61), but then lost again at Purdue (76-63) on February 20. Suddenly coach Thad Matta’s team didn’t seem so invincible anymore.
Matta rallied the troops the last three games, going a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS over Illinois (89-70), Indiana (82-61) and Penn State (82-61). None of those teams are powerhouses, but it was good to see the offense get consistently in the 80s after averaging 77.4 for the season (20th nationally).
The ‘over’ is now 4-0 in Ohio State last four games and 6-1 in the last seven.
The Buckeyes haven’t even been relying on freshman phenom Jarred Sullinger. The 6-foot-9 leading scorer (17.1 PPG) is averaging just nine PPG over the last three. That’s not a bad thing as starters Jon Diebler and William Buford have stepped up, as have freshman reserves Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft.
Ohio State is 19-0 SU at home overall (8-8 ATS). It should seal up a No. 1 seed for March Madness with a win on Sunday, no matter happens in next week’s Big Ten Tournament.
The Badgers (23-6 SU, 15-10 ATS) are ranked No. 10 in the country. They’re 13-4 SU in the conference, trailing Ohio State (15-2 SU) and Purdue (14-3 SU).
Wisconsin has a four-game winning steak (2-2 ATS) since losing at Purdue (70-62) back on Feb. 16. It’s also taken advantage of some of the conference lightweights (Penn State, Michigan Northwestern, Indiana).
Coach Bo Ryan’s team is always dominant at home (16-0 SU, 9-3 ATS), but is just mediocre in road plus neutral site games (7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS).
The Badgers did get a road win and ‘cover’ in its last game on Thursday, 77-67 at Indiana as 6 ½-point favorites. Taylor exploded for 39 points and Keaton Nankivil added 16. They were 0-4 ATS in their previous four road contests.
The 144 combined points scored went way ‘over’ the 126 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in Wisconsin’s last six games, with the defense allowing significantly more points (64.2 PPG) than its season average (57.9 PPG, second nationally).
Wisconsin relies on three main scorers with Jon Leuer (19 PPG), Taylor (18.6 PPG) and Nankivil (10.3 PPG). Everyone else is under six PPG. Nankivil has increased his output the last four games (16.5 PPG) and all three must have a big game Sunday to have any chance of beating Ohio State again.
The first meeting between the teams this year went ‘over’ the 125-point total. The ‘under’ was 7-0 in the previous seven (4-0 at Ohio State).
There are no significant injuries to report for either team.
CBS will have the 1 p.m. (PT) tip-off from Value City Arena.
NCAA Odds: Kentucky, Tennessee close SEC slate
By: Brad Young
College basketball’s regular season comes to a close Sunday before the conference and tournament madness begins. The Southeastern Conference wraps up its regular campaign during an early tipoff when 23rd-ranked Kentucky (21-8 straight up, 10-13-1 against the spread) visits Tennessee (18-12 SU, 13-16 ATS). The Wildcats enter this matchup having lost their last four road games SU and ATS.
Kentucky enters the final weekend tied with Vanderbilt and Georgia for second place in the SEC East, three games behind Florida. The Wildcats are currently a third seed in the SEC Tournament, and are projected to be around a five seed for the Big Dance. Tennessee is slated as a sixth seed for the conference tournament, and is expected to be about a ninth seed for the NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky improved to 4-1 SU its last five games after holding off Vanderbilt on Tuesday as eight-point home ‘chalk,’ 68-66. The combined 134 points went ‘under’ the 146 ½-point closing total, ending a string of five straight ‘over’ outings. The Wildcats are now just 1-4-1 ATS their last six outings overall.
Coach John Calipari’s team jumped out to an 11-point halftime advantage, 40-29, but managed just 28 points in the second half. Kentucky trailed the Commodores in rebounding (33-32) and assist (13-6), but the team did force more turnovers (12-9). The Wildcats shot 42 percent (25-of-59) from the field, and 40 percent (4-of-10) from behind the arc.
Guard Brandon Knight paced the offense with 17 points and six rebounds, while forward Terrence Jones added 15 and nine. Guard Darius Miller was the only other player to reach double digits in scoring with 12 on 5-of-9 shooting.
Tennessee remains squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble due to its inconsistent play. The Vols have alternated SU wins and losses the past six games after upending South Carolina Thursday as a 4½-point road favorite, 73-69. The combined 142 points toppled the 134-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 4-1 the previous five outings. Tennessee is now just 1-4 ATS its last five games.
The Vols had to hold off a furious comeback after entering halftime with a 17-point advantage, 40-23. Tennessee delivered more assists (15-5) in the victory, but the team was outrebounded (33-22). The Vols prevailed by shooting a blistering 51 percent (22-of-43) from the field, while limiting the Gamecocks to 39 percent (26-of-66).
Tennessee freshman forward Tobias Harris scored a career-high 25 points while grabbing six rebounds, while guard Scotty Hopson added 24. They were the only Vols players to reach double digits in scoring.
Kentucky beat Tennessee in the lone encounter this season Feb. 8 as an 8½-point home ‘chalk,’ 73-61. The combined 134 points failed to eclipse the 137-point closing total.
Tennessee center Brian Williams (back injury) is expected to be ‘out’ versus the Wildcats, while forward Renaldo Woolridge (ankle) is ‘probable.’
Sunday’s matchup is slated to start at 9:00 a.m. PT from Tennessee’s Thompson-Boling Arena.
College Basketball Knowledge
Tennessee (+8.5) lost 73-61 at Kentucky Feb 8, getting outscored 22-8 on foul line; Vols lost three of last four home games (0-4 vs spread), are 2-6 vs spread in last eight overall. Kentucky won four of last five games, but is just 1-6 on SEC road, losing games by 7-2-2-2-1-4 points, with a win at South Carolina. SEC home dogs of less than 7 points are 13-5-2.
Ohio State (+2) lost 71-67 at Wisconsin Feb 12, its first loss of year, as Badgers made 12-24 behind arc; Buckeyes are 4-4 as Big 11 home fave, winning home games by 3-3-22-23-9-10-19-21 points. Wisconsin won its last four games but is just 3-4 on Big 11 road, 1-2 as road dog. Big 11 home favorites of less than 8 points are 24-12-2 this season.
Georgia Tech (+5) lost 59-57 at Miami Feb 3, despite forcing 28 Miami turnovers in game Canes led by 21 with 13:30 left. Tech lost eight of its last nine ACC games, losing last four at home- they allowed average of 75.2 ppg in last five games. Miami is 2-5 on ACC road, winning by 1 at Wake Forest, by 9 at BC. Home teams are 4-8-1 vs spread in ACC tilts where the spread is 2 or less points.
NC State (+8) lost 84-71 at Florida State Jan 15; FSU shot 54.5% from floor, with James 8-8 with 7 rebounds, 4 steals. Wolfpack lost three of last four games but is 4-3 at home in ACC. Seminoles are 3-4 on road in ACC- they had brutal loss to North Carolina in home finale- they miss injured star Singleton. ACC home dogs of 3 or less are 5-8 vs spread.
Colonial Tournament
George Mason (+1) won 71-51 at VCU Feb 15, making 9-16 from arc; Patriots won last 16 games, longest active streak in country. Mason was +15 in turnovers yesterday, winning by 23. VCU nipped Drexel 62-60 yesterday, outscoring Dragons 25-10 from foul line. Both teams played three subs 10+ minutes, so playing back/back shouldn't be factor here.
Old Dominion (-3) won 75-64 at Hofstra Jan 15, grabbing 17 offensive rebounds in game where they were +21 on boards. Monarchs won last seven games (6-1 vs spread), with nine points closest win. Hofstra won seven of last eight games- they played four starters 34+ minutes in win Saturday turning ball over only twice. This is a road game for Hofstra.
MAAC Tournament
Fairfield won five of its last six games, forcing 25 turnovers in easy win vs Marist yesterday; they beat St Peter's twice this season, 70-43 (-11) at home on Jan 9, then 70-69 (-2) on road three weeks ago. Stags are 5-7 vs spread in last 12 games as MAAC favorite. St Peter's is just 3-4 in its last seven games, 4-2 vs spread in its last six games as an underdog.
Road team won both Rider-Iona games this season; Gaels lost 61-59 at home to Rider Jan 27 (-8.5), 13 days after beating Broncs 100-96 in OT (-2) on the road. Iona ended last night's win on 51-24 run vs Siena; they won last eight games, covering four of last five. Rider won its last six in a row; Broncs covered their last five games as the underdog.
MVC Tournament
Home side won both Indiana State-Missouri State games this year; Bears lost 70-69 (-4) at ISU Jan 19, then beat Sycamores 73-66 at home (-10) Feb 5. Higher-seeded team won six of last seven MVC finals, with four of last five wins by 13+ points. Bears are 8-1 in last nine games, ISU is 7-1 in its last eight. Missouri State only played seven guys yesterday.
Southern Conference Tournament
Western Carolina (+11) lost 75-66 at Wofford Jan 29, as Dahlman made 15-17 from floor, scoring 34 points; Terriers shot 58% for game- they've won last six games, covering four of last five. Catamounts are 8-1 since losing at Wofford- they've covered five in a row as an underdog. Both teams won by double figures yesterday, so fatigue shouldn't be a factor.
Furman lost to Charleston twice this year, 76-72 (-2) at home Jan 6, and 73-54 (+6.5) on road Feb 5; Paladins are playing third day in row, while Cougars had a bye Friday. Furman survived 21 turnovers in beating host squad Chattanooga yesterday- they're 1-3 as SoCon underdog. Cougars won seven of last nine games- they're 7-2-1 in last 10 games as favorite.
WCC Tournament
Santa Clara played three starters 35+ minutes last night, while St Mary's had a bye; Broncos lost twice to St Mary's this year, 84-59 in Moraga Jan 15 (+17), then 65-59 at home (+6) Feb 10. Santa Clara won its last three games, is 3-2-1 vs spread as WCC underdog. St Mary's lost three of last four games after starting season 20-4- they're 2-6-1 vs spread last nine times they were favored.
Home side won both USF-Gonzaga games this year; Zags got upset in OT 96-91 in Bay Area Jan 22 (-10), then beat Dons 70-53 (-15) at home in rematch Feb 19. Gonzaga won its last seven games, covering five of last six lined games- they had bye last night, while USF was winning by 17 over Pepperdine, playing three guys 30+ minutes in fairly easy win.
Sunday's Totals to Watch
By Bruce Marshall
Here’s a quick look at several current team "totals" trends to watch in Sunday’s college hoops card...
Wake Forest at Boston College...Woeful Wake Forest (all but one ACC loss by 14 points or more) is also "under" in 5 of its last 6 games.
Kentucky at Tennessee...Coach Cal’s Cats "over" 5-1 last 6, Coach Pearl’s Vols "over" 4-1 last 5.
Wisconsin at Ohio State...Bo Ryan’s Badgers are "over" 5 of their last 6 outings.
Penn State at Minnesota...Nittany Lions "over" in 5 of their last 7 games.
Miami-Florida at Georgia Tech...Both "under" 4 of last 5 this season, with Tech also "under" 8 of its last 11 outings.
Virginia Commonwealth vs. George Mason (Colonial Tourney)...VCU "under" in five straight games.
Hofstra vs. Old Dominion (Colonial Tourney)...Note that the underdog Pride is also "over" 8-3-1 its last 12 games.
Indiana State vs. Missouri State (Missouri Valley Tourney)...After an extended stretch of "overs," Mizzou State now "under" three in a row.
Western Kentucky vs. UL-Lafayette...The Ragin’ Cajuns are "under" in eight straight games.
Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s (WCC Tourney)...The Gaels are "over" in their last five games.
Western Carolina vs. Wofford (SoCon Tourney)...WCU is "under" in four straight outings.
WCC Tip Sheet
By Chris David
The West Coast Conference tournament takes center stage on Sunday as ESPN offers up a televised double-header. The semifinal action starts at 8:00 p.m. EST from the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, with the winners advancing to the championship on Monday.
This tournament has picked up steam the last few years due to the exposure and the late-night action, but VegasInsider.com handicapper and writer Micah Roberts likes it for the setup.
He said, “The WCC has one of the greatest formats for their tournament in that they don’t hurt their best teams' chances of making the NCAA’s by exposing them to losing throughout the bracket like others conferences do. The WCC’s top teams of Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga are seeded No. 1 and No. 2 and will have byes through the first two rounds.”
“It’s a smart move by the WCC because they know they are likely only to have the automatic bid with no at-large bid coming on a yearly basis. So why not enhance the best teams' chances of making the big dance and give good representation in the NCAA's rather than a team that has one great game in an upset, but is still nevertheless weaker over the long haul?”
The first round on Friday watched the underdogs come out barking as the lowest seed Loyola Marymount knocked off fifth-seeded Portland 72-68 as a 6½-point underdog. Then in the 6-7 battle, Pepperdine beat San Diego 84-81 but it failed to cover as a 4½-point favorite.
While the ‘dogs cashed tickets in the opening round, the quarterfinals watched the ‘chalk’ strike back. San Francisco outlasted Pepperdine for a 76-59 win, while Santa Clara stopped Loyola Marymount, 76-68. Fatigue definitely played a factor as the teams with rest outscored their opponents by a combined 17 points in the second-half on Saturday.
Through four games, the favorites have gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. Total players have seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 from Las Vegas. Will the rested squads prevail again tonight? The oddsmakers certainly believe so, but let’s take a closer look.
Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s
The Gaels opened up as 8½-point favorites over the Broncos and will look to complete a three-game sweep over them with a win tonight. St. Mary’s hammered Santa Clara by 25 points (84-59) at home on Jan. 15 and then the school captured the road victory (65-59) over the Broncos on Feb. 10. Both contests went ‘under’ the closing numbers.
While the recent encounters favor St. Mary’s, its current form has been anything but great. The Gaels limp into this tournament with a 1-3 record both SU and ATS over their last four. They did beat Portland (83-69) on Feb. 26 but that game was closer than the final score indicated.
Will the eight-day layoff affect the Gaels tonight? Santa Clara had its troubles scoring against St. Mary’s but the school has put up 94, 71 and 76 in its last three.
The ‘over/under’ on tonight’s tip has bouncing around the board, ranging from 142 to 144. As Bruce Marshall mentions in his Totals to Watch column, the Gaels have seen their last five games go ‘over’ the number.
San Francisco vs. Gonzaga
It’s hard to imagine an upset happening in this spot, especially when you look at Gonzaga’s history in the WCC tournament. The school hasn’t missed a trip to the finals since 1997 and what’s even more impressive is that the Bulldogs have captured the championship nine of the past 13 years. Unfortunately for Gonzaga, it came up short last year to St. Mary’s so revenge is definitely in the Las Vegas air.
Even though laying 1/10 odds on Gonzaga (Bet $1,000 to win $100) to win outright seems pretty safe, it’s not the best investment. With that being said, most gamblers turn their attention to the point-spread, which has spiked up to 12½ points from the opener of 11½ points. Can San Francisco keep it close in what will be Gonzaga-heavy crowd?
The Dons did knock off Gonzaga 96-91 on Jan. 22 in a wild overtime game as 10-point home underdogs. While that win was impressive, the Bulldogs were in the middle of a three-game losing skid and they certainly weren’t playing their best ball. Since that setback, Gonzaga has turned things around for head coach Mark Few.
The Bulldogs enter this game rested and on fire. Gonzaga closed the regular season with seven straight wins, including a 70-53 victory at home over San Francisco as a 15½-point favorite on Feb. 19. During this run, the school has gone 5-1 ATS.
Total players are looking at an ‘over/under’ hovering between 136 and 137 points for tonight. These two teams did combined for 187 points in mid-January but the recent meeting that saw 123 points seems more like the norm here, especially with a Gonzaga offense that doesn’t measure to past squads.
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