Sunday's College Slate
By Brian Edwards
**Florida at Kentucky**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Kentucky (28-2 straight up, 16-12 against the spread) as a 12-point favorite. As of late Saturday, most books had UK as a 12-point 'chalk' with a total of 140.
Kentucky bounced back from last Saturday’s loss at Tennessee to thump Georgia 80-68 Wednesday at Stegeman Coliseum. The Wildcats hooked up their backers as eight-point road favorites. John Wall was the catalyst with 24 points, six assists and three steals. Patrick Patterson added 17 points and 10 boards.
Florida (20-10 SU, 13-12 ATS) has lost back-to-back games and is in danger of ending the regular season on a three-game losing slide. That scenario would most likely leave the Gators needing to win at least one game in the SEC Tournament. However, Billy Donovan’s squad can remove all doubt by winning outright Sunday at Rupp Arena.
UF had the ball with a chance to win on the last possession of both aforementioned losses (at UGA and vs. Vandy) in the last week. Trailing 78-76 at Georgia last Saturday, Dan Werner passed on a clean look at a 15-foot jumper on the baseline with about 2-3 ticks remaining. Werner elected to pass the ball and a deflection sent the ball out of bounds with just 0.1 seconds left. In Tuesday’s 64-60 home loss to Vandy, Kenny Boynton had a clean look at a trey from the right wing that would’ve given the Gators the lead in the waning moments. The Gators went the last nine-plus minutes of the second half without making one bucket from the field.
Florida owns a 5-4 spread record in nine games as an underdog. This is UF’s first double-digit ‘dog situation.
John Calipari’s team is undefeated in 18 home games with an 8-8 spread ledger. The ‘Cats are 8-9 versus the number when listed as double-digit ‘chalk.’
UF has an RPI of 52, while UK is No. 3 in the RPI.
When these schools met at the O-Dome in Gainesville on Jan. 12, Kentucky collected an 89-77 win as a 3 ½-point road favorite. UK freshman guard Eric Bledsoe, who had Florida as his leader in the recruiting process before Calipari left Memphis for UK, torched the Gators for 25 points, seven rebounds, five assists and three steals. Wall added 19 points and six assists. In the losing effort, Erving Walker had a team-high 20 points.
The ‘over’ is 14-13 for the ‘Cats, 9-6 in their home assignments. With that said, the ‘under’ is 5-2 in UK’s last seven games (regardless of the venue).
The ‘under’ is 12-9 overall for the Gators, 4-4 in their eight true road games.
CBS will provide television coverage at noon Eastern.
**Clemson at Wake Forest**
LVSC opened Wake Forest (18-9 SU, 14-10 ATS) as a one-point favorite. As of late Saturday, most spots had the Demon Deacons favored by one with a total of 137.
Clemson (21-8 SU, 14-12 ATS) is playing its best basketball of the season, winning five of its last six games. The Tigers come to Lawrence-Joel Coliseum in Winston Salem after pulling away from Ga. Tech for a 91-80 home win Tuesday as 6 ½-point home favorites. Trevor Booker enjoyed his Senior Night by erupting for 21 points, nine rebounds, five assists and three blocked shots.
Unlike Clemson, Wake Forest is slumping at the wrong time. The Demon Deacons have lost four in a row, although it did take the cash in Wednesday’s 51-47 loss at FSU as 7 ½-point underdogs. Al-Farouq Aminu took a bagel in 28 minutes of play before fouling out. Also, L.D. Williams produced just four points and one board in 34 minutes.
Dino Gaudio’s team is 12-2 SU and 6-5 ATS at home this year.
Wake Forest has covered the number in eight consecutive head-to-head meetings. The Deacs stroked the Tigers 96-88 as 4 ½-point home favorites in last year’s regular-season finale.
Clemson sophomore guard Tanner Smith is “questionable” with a sprained ankle. Smith averages 8.9 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game.
The ‘under’ is on a 9-2 run in Wake’s last 11 games. The ‘under’ is 14-9 overall for the Deacs, but the ‘over’ is 6-5 in their home games.
The ‘under’ is 15-9 overall for Clemson.
Tip-off is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. Eastern on FSN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Saturday’s Biggest Bubble Winners
1-Louisville (78-68 vs. Syracuse)
2-Notre Dame (63-60 at Marquette in overtime)
3-Ole Miss (68-66 at Arkansas)
4-Va. Tech (88-82 at Ga. Tech)
5-Memphis (75-53 vs. Tulsa)
Saturday’s Biggest Bubble Losers
1-UConn (75-68 at USF)
2-Ga. Tech (88-82 vs. Va. Tech)
3-Rhode Island (69-67 at UMass)
4-Mississippi St. (75-59 vs. Tennessee)
5-Dayton (71-66 vs. Saint Louis)
South Carolina has really been limping down the stretch this year, but it went into Music City on Saturday and stunned Vanderbilt by a 77-73 count as a 10 ½-point road underdog. Devan Downey was the catalyst, raining deep 3’s at crunch time to propel his team into the winner’s circle with 27 points. Bettors backing the Gamecocks to win outright at the Las Vegas Hilton cashed monster plus-500 tickets (risk $100 to win $500). The costly loss might end the Commodores’ hopes of garnering a No. 3 seed unless they get to the SEC Tournament finals next week.
With Alabama beating Auburn 73-61 as a 5 ½-point home favorite, the Tide earned the No. 4 seed in the SEC West for the league tourney in Nashville. The Tigers will now face Florida in a first-round game Thursday, with the winner advancing to face Mississippi St. in the quarterfinals on Friday.
Don’t rule out West Virginia as a potential No. 1 seed yet. If the Mountaineers win the Big East tournament, their case for a top seed will be decent depending on what schools like Duke, Purdue and K-St. do in their respective conference tourneys.
Winthrop garnered the second bid to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Big South Tournament by virtue of Saturday’s 64-53 win over Coastal Carolina as a 9 ½-point underdog. The Eagles hooked up money-line backers with a payout as generous as plus-425 at the LV Hilton (risk $100 to win $425).
vegasinsider.com
Sunday's Rivalry Games
By Sportsbook.com
Florida at Kentucky
A few years ago Billy Donovan’s Florida team was the most dominant program in the country, having just wrapped up its second of back-to-back national titles.
Well, the Florida Gators haven’t even sniffed the tournament since and may find themselves on the outside looking in once again unless they can do something like pull off an upset versus Kentucky Wildcats on Sunday afternoon.
Read on for a preview of this key SEC contest then head over to the GAME MATCHUPS page of Sportsbook.com for all the key betting info on this last day of the college basketball regular season.
The Gators conclude the season with a matchup with their biggest rival: Kentucky. Florida (20-10, 13-12 ATS) was doing its best to align itself to return to the tournament for the first time in three years with step-up efforts from Chandler Parsons and Erving Walker.
However, recent close losses at Georgia and at Vanderbilt have undermined their progress. Parsons has grown and displays an all-around game, getting others players involved in the offense, playing a point forward style. It will be a tough environment; nevertheless, the Gators are playing well and are 5-2 ATS as away underdogs this season.
This contest concludes what coach John Calipari hopes is a three part play. Kentucky (28-2, 16-12 ATS) is the best team in the SEC and has the best record. He would prefer his team win the conference tournament to keep momentum building, followed by six consecutive wins and a national championship.
That of course is down the road and this game is about showing dominance, especially on home floor, since presumably DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson and John Wall will playing at Rupp Arena for the last time. The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS vs. poor three-point shooting teams converting 31 or less of their attempts since last year.
Kentucky has won nine of the last dozen in Lexington over Florida with 6-5-1 ATS mark.
Michigan at Michigan State
Michigan State is one of three teams with four losses in Big Ten play. That is the total that is going to grab at least a share of the conference regular season title.
Of course, that means for the Michigan State Spartans to be in on the sharing, they simply need to beat rival Michigan at home on Sunday afternoon.
After nearly being upset Thursday night by Penn State, perhaps that goal is easier said than done for State. Sportsbook.com oddsmakers figure the Spartans will get it done, but it’s up to bettors at Sportsbook.com to decide whether or not they will do it by enough points to satisfy all their backers.
The Spartans 67-65 win as 13-point home favorites over last place Penn State epitomizes their season. Michigan State (23-7, 11-18 ATS) is playing to be co-champion of the Big Ten, but it hardly feels like it. The Spartans 9-0 conference start and one-point road wins at Minnesota and Michigan only camouflaged their weaknesses that emerged later in February.
Kalin Lucas was carrying this club, with super sub Draymond Green being the only other consistent scoring threat. Lately, even Lucas has been affected, with eight turnovers and one assist in last Sunday’s win over Purdue and he made two miscues against the Nittany Lions that almost cost his club the game. Coach Tom Izzo’s maddening squad is 13-2 and uninspiring 4-11 ATS as a home favorite.
The Michigan Wolverines (14-15, 13-12 ATS) started the year in the Top 25 but fell fast. If one supports and watched the Maize and Blue this season, you would be having Tommy Amaker flashbacks with how this team has performed.
Coach John Beilein has been trying to force feed 6’10 center Zack Gibson into the starting lineup, as 6’8 DeShawn Sims is the only other regular start over 6-foot-5. Gibson becomes important against the larger and more physical Spartans since the Wolverines have been outrebounded eight straight games. Michigan is 2-5 and 6-1 ATS as an away underdog.
Dating back to 1998, Michigan State has won all 10 games over in-state rival Michigan in East Lansing, with a 5-5 ATS record.
Florida (20-10, 13-12 ATS) at (3) Kentucky (28-2, 16-12 ATS)
The Wildcats look to wrap up the SEC’s regular-season championship when they take on Florida at Rupp Arena.
Kentucky fell to Tennessee 74-65 on Feb. 27 as a 2½-point road favorite, ending an eight-game winning streak (6-2 ATS), all in the SEC. But it bounced back at Georgia on Wednesday with an 80-68 victory giving 7½ points. On the home floor this year, the Wildcats are a perfect 18-0 (just 8-8 ATS), rolling up 83.9 ppg on sturdy 49.6 percent shooting while holding foes to just 65.5 ppg on 38.3 percent shooting. They also outrebound visitors to Rupp Arena by nearly a dozen per game (39.6-27.9).
Florida may have already seen its Big Dance bubble burst over its last two starts, losing at Georgia 78-76 as a two-point chalk on Feb. 27, then falling to No. 13 Vanderbilt 64-60 Tuesday as a three-point home favorite. The Gators have shot a modest 42.9 percent over their last five games, including just 28.8 percent from three-point range. In fact, Billy Donovan’s troops have struggled greatly from long range all year, hitting just 30.8 percent, which rates 294th among 347 teams.
Kentucky has won three of the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 ATS), following a 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS run by Florida. Two months ago in Gainesville, the ‘Cats cruised 89-77 as a 3½-point chalk. Still, the Gators are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests, but the chalk is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the home team is on a 5-2 ATS surge.
The Wildcats are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 outings after a spread-cover, but they carry positive ATS streaks of 5-1 overall (all in SEC play), 4-0 on Sunday, 4-1 after a SU win and 4-1 against winning teams. The Gators have failed to cash in five of seven overall, but they’re 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Sunday starts and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 roadies.
Kentucky is on “over” stretches of 5-2 overall, 5-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after an ATS win and 5-2 in the SEC, and Florida is on “over” streaks of 5-1 on Sunday, 8-3 after a non-cover, 7-3 after a SU loss and 13-6 against winning teams. In addition, the over has cashed in four of the last six series meetings between these rivals, but the total has tayed low in five of the last six Lexington clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
(15) Wisconsin (22-7, 16-11 ATS) at Illinois (18-12, 12-17 ATS)
The Badgers aim to firm up their postseason credentials with a trip to Champaign for a Big Ten clash against Illinois at Assembly Hall.
Wisconsin has followed a 1-2 SU and ATS hiccup by winning three in a row (2-1 ATS), including consecutive blowout victories. On Feb. 25, the Badgers ripped Indiana 78-46 as a hefty 12-point road chalk, then they suffocated Iowa 67-40 laying 18 points at home Wednesday. Coach Bo Ryan fields the nation’s third-best scoring defense, allowing just 56.1 ppg, while his team scores 67.8 ppg. On the road, however, the margin tightens, with Wisconsin averaging 61.6 and allowing 57.3.
Illinois went on a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run that put the squad on the Tournament bubble, but the Illini have since dropped four of their last five (2-3 ATS) and will likely need to win the upcoming conference tourney or be relegated to the NIT. Illinois lost to No. 6 Ohio State 73-57 catching 9½ points on the road Tuesday, and has lost its last two at home – 62-60 to Minnesota giving three points last week and 72-53 to the Buckeyes as a two-point pup. In their last five games, the Illini have averaged just 57.2 ppg on a meager 37.7 percent shooting (27.6 percent from three-point range), while surrendering 65.2 ppg.
Illinois stunned Wisconsin 63-56 a month ago as a nine-point road underdog, halting a 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS run by the Badgers in this rivalry. Wisconsin is 4-1-1 ATS on its last six trips to Assembly Hall, and the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall.
The Badgers have covered in just two of their last seven games against winning teams, while Illinois is on ATS skids of 1-5 at home, 4-9 against teams with a winning record and 0-4 at home against squads with a losing road mark.
In this rivalry, the total has stayed low in the last four clashes overall and six of the last eight in Champaign. In addition, Wisconsin is on “under” tears of 25-10 overall, 4-1 against winning teams, 36-16 on the highway, 14-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 15-5 on Sunday and 44-20 in the Big Ten. Likewise, Illinois sports “under” streaks of 5-1 overall (all in the Big Ten), 4-0 against winning teams and 15-6-1 on Sunday, though the over is 11-4 in the Illini’s last 15 home outings and 9-3 in their last dozen after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNAMENT
(at St. Louis, Mo.)
Wichita State (25-8, 13-12-1 ATS) vs. Northern Iowa (27-4, 19-11 ATS)
The top two teams in the Missouri Valley will collide for the tournament title and an automatic Big Dance bid when the top-seeded Panthers battle Wichita State at the Scottrade Center.
Northern Iowa stifled Drake in the quarterfinals 55-40 laying 10½ points Friday, then put the handcuffs on Bradley in a 57-40 victory Saturday as an 8½-point favorite in the semifinals. The Panthers have held 11 of their last 12 conference opponents to less than 59 points, including nine to 55 or less, and they currently rank second in the nation in scoring defense at 54.4 ppg. Offensively, Northern Iowa averages 63.2 ppg.
Wichita State dropped Missouri State 73-63 as a three-point chalk in the quarterfinals, then held off Illinois State 65-61 Saturday as a two-point favorite to reach the conference title game. The Shockers have won and covered three straight after a modest two-game SU skid and six-game pointspread purge. Wichita State is averaging 70.0 ppg and giving up 61.2, and it is holding opponents to just 26.2 rebounds per game (fourth).
These two teams split their regular-season meetings this year, with the home team winning each time and Wichita State cashing in both games. On Jan. 19, the Shockers won 60-51 giving two points at home, and on Feb. 3, Northern Iowa prevailed 59-56 but fell short as a six-point home favorite. Wichita State is on a 5-2 ATS run in this rivalry (3-4 SU), cashing the last three in a row and four of the last five.
The Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight neutral-site starts, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season (including three double-digit victories). But they are also just 2-4 ATS in their last six games against winning teams. The Shockers, meanwhile, are on ATS tears of 8-1 on neutral courts and 7-3 as a neutral-site chalk, though they still carry negative pointspread streaks of 3-6 overall, 3-6 as a chalk and 3-5 in Missouri Valley play.
Northern Iowa is on “under” tears of 23-6 overall (4-0 last four), 20-4 at neutral sites, 10-3 in road/neutral-site contests this year, 18-4 in conference action, 10-2 as a chalk, 5-1 against winning teams, 21-6 after a SU win and 8-3 as a neutral-court favorite. Both of Northern Iowa’s MVC tourney games also fell far short of the posted prices of 118½ and 118, respectively.
Prior to the MVC tourney, Wichita State was on a 7-3 “under” run on the highway, and the Shockers’ two games thus far in St. Louis split, going over the posted price of 128 against Missouri State and falling just short of the 128½-point total against Illinois State. Finally, the total stayed low in both meetings this year, after a four-game “over” streak in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER