Thursday's NCAAB Tips
By Brian Edwards
**Louisville at Seton Hall**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Louisville (12-6 straight up, 5-8 against the spread) as a one–point favorite.
Rick Pitino’s team has lost back-to-back games, including an 82-77 overtime loss at Pittsburgh this past Saturday. The Panthers took the cash as 1 ½-point home favorites. Samardo Samuels had a team-high 25 points for the Cardinals in the losing effort.
After winning its first eight games of the season, Seton Hall (10-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) has lost six of its last eight contests, including last Thursday’s 85-73 loss at Georgetown as a 6 ½-point underdog. Junior guard Jeremy Hazell had 17 points in defeat.
Bobby Gonzalez’s squad is 8-3 SU and 2-4 ATS at home. As for Louisville, it has played four true road games, compiling a 1-3 record both SU and ATS.
U of L is 3-2 in Big East play, while the Pirates are 1-4 against conference foes. They beat Cincy at home but also lost to Syracuse and West Va. (in OT) at the Prudential Center. The Cards beat USF and St. John’s at home, Providence on the road. In addition to getting beat at Pitt, they lost to Villanova at Freedom Hall.
--Samuels leads the Cards in scoring and rebounding, averaging 16.3 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Hazell leads the Pirates in scoring at a 22.9 PPG clip.
When these teams collided at Freedom Hall last year, Louisville captured a 95-78 win but the Pirates escaped with the spread cover as 17 ½-point underdogs. The ‘over’ cashed and is on a 4-0 run in the last four encounters between these Big East rivals.
The ‘over’ has hit in four consecutive Louisville games and is 10-2 overall.
The ‘under’ is 3-2-1 for Seton Hall in its six home games with a total, 4-4-1 overall.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Indiana at Penn State**
LVSC opened Penn St. (8-9 SU, 6-8-1 ATS) as an 8 ½-point favorite.
Indiana (8-9 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) improved to 2-3 in Big Ten play with Sunday’s 81-78 overtime win over Minnesota. The Hoosiers hooked up their backers as 11-point home underdogs. Verdell Jones III was the catalyst for IU, producing 24 points, seven rebounds and three assists. Christian Watford added 16 points and 10 rebounds.
Indiana has played a slew of neutral-court games but just two true road assignments. The Hoosiers got slammed in both of those spots, losing 79-54 at Ohio St. and 69-45 at Michigan.
Penn St. has lost five in a row since Big Ten play started, including Saturday’s 67-64 loss at Iowa as a 3 ½-point road favorite. Talor Battle had 31 points and seven rebounds in the losing effort.
Battle, who led the Big Ten in scoring last season as a sophomore, is averaging 18.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game.
PSU is 6-3 SU at home but just 2-5 versus the number. The Nittany Lions are 2-4 ATS as home favorites.
The ‘over’ is 7-6 overall for PSU, but the ‘under’ is 4-3 in its home games.
The ‘under’ has been a winner in each of the last four PSU-Indiana meetings.
ESPN2 will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Florida at Arkansas**
LVSC opened Florida (12-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) as a two-point favorite.
Arkansas (8-9 SU, 5-5 ATS) is coming off a 71-59 win over Alabama as a 1 ½-point home favorite. The victory snapped a four-game losing streak for the Razorbacks but in the same vein, extended their ATS winning surge to four games. Marshawn Powell had 18 points and 10 rebounds against the Crimson Tide, while Rotnei Clarke and Michael Washington added 17 points apiece. Washington also pulled down a team-high 13 boards.
I’ve said this a few times this month and I’ll say it again now: Gamblers should completely dismiss ALL of Arkansas’ results prior to its spread-covering loss at home against Texas on Jan. 5. That’s because sophomore point guard Courtney Fortson missed the team’s first 14 games before returning against the Longhorns.
Since being reinstated to the team following the suspension, Fortson is averaging 17.0 points, 7.3 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game. More importantly, his ball-handling skills and ability to get into the lane off the dribble makes things easier for all if his teammates, especially Clarke, who is most effective coming off screens for catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Billy Donovan’s team lost its first two SEC games (95-87 at Vandy and 89-77 vs. Kentucky) before beating LSU 72-58 Saturday night as a 10 ½-point home favorite in Gainesville. All five UF starters scored in double figures led by freshman Kenny Boynton’s 18 points. Erving Walker had 14 points and six assists, while Vernon Macklin finished with 14 points and eight boards.
Florida swept a pair of meetings between these SEC rivals last year, including a 73-58 win at the SEC Tournament as a nine-point favorite. Dan Werner led the Gators with 15 points and 13 rebounds. The ‘under’ cashed in that game like it has in the last four UF-Arkansas head-to-head meetings.
Totals have been a wash for the Hogs – 4-4 overall, 2-2 in their home outings.
The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Gators, 1-1 in their two true road games.
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
For you bet-happy night owls, take note of San Diego at Saint Mary’s scheduled to come off the board at 11:00 p.m. Eastern. Most importantly, the Toreros and Gaels will be televised on ESPNU.
Gonzaga will play host to Pepperdine on Thursday at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. FSN will provide the telecast.
I love how Kansas St. head coach Frank Martin has handled his squad’s huge win over top-ranked Texas earlier this week. During Jim Rome is Burning Wednesday on ESPN, Martin told Rome, “We aren’t looking for parades in January."
vegasinsider.com
Washington State (13-5, 6-10 ATS) at USC (11-6, 8-6-2 ATS)
Washington State makes its annual swing through Southern California when it travels to the Galen Center for a Pac-10 clash with the Trojans.
The Cougars snapped a two-game conference slide with Saturday’s 77-73 win over Stanford, falling just short of covering as a 5½-point home favorite. They’ve now failed to cash in six of their last seven games, including the last three in a row, and they’re 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS in conference (1-1 SU and ATS on the road). Once one of the best defensive teams in the country, Washington State has given up an average of 78.3 ppg over the last four games and has yielded 68 points or more eight times in its last nine contests.
Like the Cougars, USC halted a two-game losing skid with Saturday’s 67-46 destruction of crosstown rival UCLA, easily covering as a one-point home underdog. USC is on a 6-1 ATS run, cashing in the last four in a row. Take away a pair of narrow losses at Stanford and Cal, and the Trojans have won nine in a row. They’ve also held 10 of their last 11 opponents to 56 points or less, giving up an average of only 50.4 ppg during this 11-game stretch. With that run, USC now ranks second in the nation in scoring defense (54.7 ppg), but the offense produces just 59.5 ppg.
USC swept the season series against Washington State last year, riding its strong defense to a 46-44 road win (as a 2½-point underdog) and a 61-51 home win (as a 6½-point chalk). Prior to that, the Cougars had won five of the previous six meetings. USC is 4-2 ATS in the last six series clashes, and the ‘dog has covered in five of the last seven.
Washington State is in ATS ruts of 1-6 overall, 4-9-1 on the road, 1-6 in Pac-10 action, 1-4 on Thursday, 0-5 against winning teams, 7-18-1 as an underdog, 5-15-1 as a road pup. On the flip side, the Trojans are on pointspread surges of 6-1 overall (4-0 last four, all in conference), 5-0 against winning teams and 5-1 on Thursday, but they’re 1-5-2 ATS in their last eight as a favorite (all at home).
The Cougars have topped the total in 11 of their last 14 overall, five of their last six road games, five of six as an underdog and eight of nine after a SU win, but the under is 5-2 in their last seven Thursday outings. Meanwhile, defensive-minded USC is on “under” rolls of 4-0-1 overall (all in Pac-10 play), 4-0 at home, 6-0 as a favorite (all at home) and 5-1 after a SU win. Finally, both of last year’s Trojans-Cougars meetings stayed under the total, following a 4-0 “over” stretch in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER
NCAAB News and Notes
Thursday, January 21
Information on the best of Thursday's college basketball games........
Home team won last three Louisville-Seton Hall games; Cardinals lost in last visit here as 7.5-point favorites, 92-82 in 2008. Louisville is just 2-3 in January, losing last two games (Villanova/Pitt); they're 1-3 on road, with only win at Providence. Pirates are 1-4 in Big East, with favorites 5-0 vs spread in those games. Big East home sides are 21-26 vs spread.
Underdog covered five of North Texas' last six Sun Belt games; UNT is just 2-2 at home, winning by 17-14 points, but losing to FIU, Arkansas State. South Alabama lost three of last four games, losing by 3-6-3 ptd; they're 2-0 as conference underdog. Sun Belt home favorites are 17-13 vs spread. North Texas lost 68-65 at South Alabama in LY's meeting.
Troy State lost three of last four games, losing last two by combined five points; Trojans are 2-1 at home in Sun Belt, losing to North Texas, but beating New Orleans/Denver. Western Kentucky lost last two on road by combined total of six points, after winning Sun Belt road opener by 3 in OT at South Alabama. Home side won both series meetings LY.
Butler won 10 of last 13 games vs Loyola, winning last three played in Chicago by 4-11-23 points. Bulldogs are 7-0 in Horizon, winning away games by 12 at Wright State, 2 at Detroit in OT. Ramblers are 4-2 vs the spread as an underdog in league, 3-4 SU, losing by 21-17-5-4 points. Horizon home underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in league play.
Home side won last five Florida-Arkansas games; Gators lost last two in this arena by 4-19 points, but won five of last six games overall in series, with Florida 3-0 vs Hogs in SEC tourney (beat them 73-58 LY). Gators are 4-5 in last nine games, and thats with the lucky NC State win. Hogs lost four of their last five games, beating Alabama in SEC home opener.
Stanford won seven of last nine games vs Oregon State, beating Beavers in Pac-10 toruney LY after OSU had upset Cardinal twice during regular season. Home side won all five of Stanford's Pac-10 games; Cardinal won its two Pac-10 home games, by 1-11 over USC/UCLA. Beavers are 3-0 as Pac-10 road dog; visitor covered all five of their league games.
Last four Louisiana Tech-San Jose games were all decided by five points or less; Tech are 2-4 in last six visits here, but they're 17-2 this season, best team they've had since Karl Malone's days in Ruston. Tech is 5-0 in WAC (4-1 vs spread) winning road games by 6 at Idaho, 15 at Boise State. San Jose is 2-0 at home in WAC, with wins by 3-2 points.
Utah State won last six games vs Fresno State, taking last two played in this arena by 5-6 points; Aggies won last three games by 44-7-22, with OT win at Nevada their only road win in three tries. Bulldogs are 3-0 at home in WAC, but they were 0-2 on road last week. WAC favorites are 12-9 vs spread in league play, 1-2 on the road.
Pacific is 9-4 in last 13 games vs Fullerton, winning last two played here by 7-19 points; favorite covered seven of last eight in series. Pacific has 3-1 Big West mark, winning both home games by 9-13 points (1-1 as a home favorite). Fullerton won three of last four games; their two losses in league play are by 4 at Cal-Davis, 6 at home vs Northridge.
Oregon lost five of last six visits to Berkeley, with losses by 4-3-11-2-7 points; underdog was 3-2-1 vs spread in those six games. Visitor won all five of Oregon's league games; Ducks won at both Washington schools. Cal is 3-2 in Pac-10, winning by 26-8-5 points. Oregon scored 90.5 ppg in its two league wins, 58 ppg in its losses. Pac-10 home faves: 6-13.
USC beat Washington State twice LY, after losing nine of previous 11 to Coogs; underdog is 4-2 vs spread in last six series games played here, on court where Trojans are 2-0 this year, allowing 43.5 ppg in beating both Arizona schools, by 6-10 points. Coogs are 3-3 in Pac-10, 1-1 on road, winning by hoop at Arizona, losing by 25 at Arizona State.
Home team won last seven Washington-UCLA games; Huskies lost five of last six trips here, losing last three by 22-14-9 points. U-Dub is 3-3 in Pac-10, losing both road games in Arizona, but they looked lot better in sweeping Bay Area schools last week. UCLA is 2-3 in league, losing its last two home games, scoring 56 ppg. Pac-10 underdogs are 15-8.
Siena won last three games over Loyola by 2-7-13 points, but Loyola is 3-2 in last five visits here. Saints are 8-0 in MAAC, 2-3 as a home fave, winning at home by 22-11-18-12-15 points. Greyhounds are 1-4 in last five games; they're 2-2 as MAAC road dog, losing away games by 5-20-5-5 points. MAAC home favorites are an unhealthy 8-22 vs spread.
Pepperdine at Gonzaga
By SportsPic
Minus four starters from last year's Sweet 16 team the Gonzaga Bulldogs (14-3, 79-4-1 ATS) suffered only three losses (Michigan State, Wake Forest, Duke) during it's difficult non-conference schedule before opening WCC play with wins over Portland (81-78), St. Mary's (89-82) and most recently San Diego (68-50).
Zags now a perfect 20-0 (13-7 ATS) the past twenty in conference play have an easy one vs Pepperdine (7-12, 5-9 ATS). Bulldogs have whipped Wave 36 times the past 41 meetings cashing twenty-two of the contests (22-8-1 ATS) including ten straight victories on home hardwood (9-1-1 ATS).
Consider Zags knowing they're 4-1 ATS at home laying 24.5 to 30 points, 15-5 ATS playing a team with a losing record and that Wave struggle on the highway winning just two of the past twenty (8-12 ATS) away from home.