Thursday's Best NCAAB Bet
St. Mary’s Gaels at Gonzaga Bulldogs (-2.5, 150)
After an 89-70 loss to Vanderbilt in Tennessee, St. Mary’s coach Randy Bennett didn’t mince words about his team’s poor play.
“We need to be more mentally tough on the road,” he said. “We can't play the same on the road as we do at home. Our next two on the road will be tough and we need to learn."
Despite a 3-2 true road record, the team must be much tougher to win at Gonzaga. The Gaels have beaten the Bulldogs just three times in the team’s past 10 meetings, but one of those was an 81-62 win by the Gaels last March in Spokane.
In that win over Gonzaga, the Gaels were led by star guard Mickey McConnell, who had 26 points, six assists, four steals and only one turnover. This season, he is averaging 14.6 points and 6.5 assists per game – and has cracked double figures in scoring in nine of his past 10.
The Gaels also forced 23 turnovers by the Commodores, but committed a staggering 25 fouls, were outrebounded 37-19 and let the hosts make 52 percent of their shots. But those flaws can be overcome against Gonzaga – the Bulldogs are just plus-2 in rebound margin over their past two games – West Coast Conference losses to Santa Clara and San Francisco – and made 45 percent of their shots in two wide-open games, around 3 percent less than their season average.
Pick: St. Mary’s
NCAA Betting: Vanderbilt at Mississippi State
By: Joe Freda
The No. 22 Vanderbilt Commodores have a 1-4 spread record in their last five games, with the ‘over’ going 4-1. Kevin Stallings’ squad heads south for Thursday’s matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who are 2-1 ATS in their last three contests.
Vanderbilt picked up its second straight win in Saturday’s 89-70 triumph as a five-point home favorite against the St. Mary’s Gaels. The Commodores hit 52 percent of their field buckets, including 11-of-22 from beyond the arc.
Vanderbilt’s Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins each logged a team-high 19 points. The duo united to drain 6-of-10 from three-point land, while sinking 12-of-15 free throws.
Commodores guard Lance Goulbourne notched 15 points and 10 boards, finishing with his second straight double-double. The junior forward added two assists, while recording a season-high five turnovers.
The lopsided affair’s combined 159 points leaped ‘over’ the ‘total’ of 148. Vanderbilt outrebounded the Gaels, 37-19, while holding St. Mary’s to 41.9 percent field shooting.
Vanderbilt is 5-2 against the spread in its seven games away from home, with the ‘under’ going 4-3. Goulbourne and Co. have allowed 68 PPG in that span.
Mississippi State saw a two-game win streak end with Saturday’s 86-64 defeat as a 10-point road dog against the Georgia Bulldogs. Rick Stansbury’s squad allowed Georgia to hit 11-of-19 three-point shots, while being outrebounded, 43-21.
Mississippi State’s Dee Bost logged team-highs of 20 points and five assists. The junior guard added five of his team’s seven steals.
Bost’s mate Renardo Sidney finished with 15 points and a team-high nine rebounds. The starting forward (14.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG) is listed as “questionable” by DonBest.com for Thursday’s game due to an illness.
The battle’s combined 150 points soared above the ‘total’ of 138, bringing the ‘over’ to 3-2 in Mississippi State’s last five games. Both squads struggled from the foul line, uniting to hit 24-of-40 free throws.
Mississippi State is 1-6 ATS in its first seven ‘board’ home dates, with Sidney and Co. putting up 75.1 PPG. The ‘over’ is 4-2 in the span’s six games containing a ‘total.’
Mississippi State is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings against Vanderbilt, with the ‘over’ going 4-1.
The rivals last met this past March in the Southeastern Conference tournament, with the Bulldogs winning, 62-52, as 1½-point dogs at Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena. Field buckets came at a premium in the afternoon affair, with both teams uniting to connect at just 37 percent.
Thursday’s tip is scheduled for 4 p.m. (PT), with ESPN2 providing the national television coverage.
Both foes will have one day off before resuming action as part of Saturday’s college hoops slate. Mississippi State remains home to face the No. 23 Florida Gators, while Vanderbilt hosts the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Gonzaga hosts St Mary's in West Coast clash
By: Adam Markowitz
We already know that John Wooden led one of the greatest programs in the history of sports. His UCLA Bruins put together an NCAA record 13 straight regular season conference crowns in the Pac-10 in the 1960s and 1970s.
In the history of major NCAA basketball betting action, this is the only squad that has won more consecutive league titles, regardless of conference, than the Gonzaga Bulldogs. The kings of the West Coast Conference have won 10 titles in a row and are searching for No. 11 this year, but they are going to have a tough time at home on Thursday night, as they take on the St. Mary's Gaels, who are looking to knock them from their perch.
Tip-off at McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane, WA will be at 8 p.m. (PT) on Thursday in front of a nationally televised audience on ESPN2.
At 17-3, there is no doubting the fact that the Gaels are one of the best mid-major teams in the nation. They cracked the Top 25 in the nation last week before losing at the Vanderbilt Commodores in resounding 89-70 fashion, and are hoping that they can improve upon a 3-2 SU and ATS road record in arguably the biggest game of the season.
Though we know that Omar Samhan, the man that really made a name for himself last year in the NCAA Tournament, is no longer on the team, this is still an incredibly deep squad that might be the best in the history of the St. Mary's program. Mickey McConnell is the team's leading scorer at 14.6 PPG, but there is a plethora of scoring options behind him that can get the job done as well.
Eight different players are used in this rotation on a regular basis, and they're all scoring at least 6.2 PPG this year, and this is why this is one of the most well rounded offensive attacks in the entire country. St. Mary's ranks No. 9 in the land at 82.5 PPG coming into this week.
Gonzaga is on the ropes right now, having lost back-to-back games on the road this past weekend to the San Francisco Dons and the Santa Clara Broncos, neither team of which is really considered in the "elite" in the WCC this year. The Zags do get the best shot of their foe every single night though, regardless of whether they are conference games or not, and this is why they are almost certainly on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble 20 games into the season.
The scary thing for head coach Mark Few is that this is really the exact same core of a team that was so great last year in making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team. Second year man Elias Harris has really struggled, as his scoring average has come down over 2.5 PPG to 12.3 PPG, and he has only scored 21 total points in his last two games.
Steven Gray and Robert Sacre are going to be huge keys on Thursday. Gray is putting up 15.2 PPG this year, while Sacre is second on the team in scoring at 13.9 PPG and is the leader in rebounding at 6.8 RPG.
Since 2003, this has been a series dominated by the Zags. They are 16-4 SU and 11-9 ATS in this stretch, and the marks at home are even more impressive. Here at the Kennel since 1999, Gonzaga is 13-0 SU, but is only 7-6 ATS against the Gaels. St. Mary's did get the last laugh last year, knocking the Bulldogs from their perch in the WCC Tournament finale with an impressive 81-62 triumph.
Zags to host St. Mary's
By Brian Edwards
For the first time since 1997, Gonzaga is in danger of possibly missing the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs are just 13-7 and despite once again playing one of the nation’s premier non-conference schedules, they are seemingly on the wrong side of the bubble here in late January.
Mark Few’s team does have a few solid wins, including scalps of RPI Top 100 teams like Marquette, Baylor and Portland. In addition, the ‘Zags took down Xavier (RPI: 27) and Oklahoma St. (RPI: 38) but after back-to-back road losses at Santa Clara and at San Francisco, Gonzaga is in dire need of a victory over Saint Mary’s at home Thursday.
Michigan State is another team that’s starving for a win. The Spartans aren’t in as bad a shape as the ‘Zags, but they’re also dealing with internal issues and have appeared to struggle with chemistry at times.
There are additional games galore on the college hoops card, including several intriguing Pac-10 matchups and Michigan at Michigan St. Let’s take a closer look.
Michigan at Michigan State
Most betting shops opened Michigan State (12-7 straight up, 6-12 against the spread) as a 10 ½-point favorite with a total of 126.
Michigan (11-9 SU, 8-7 ATS) has lost six in a row, failing to cover in four of those games. The Wolverines are coming off a 69-64 home loss to Minnesota as 1 ½-point favorites. Tim Hardaway Jr. scored a game-high 20 points in the losing effort.
Tom Izzo’s team is mired in a 0-5 ATS slump, dropping its last two games straight up. The Spartans lost 86-76 Saturday at Purdue, disappointing their backers as 6 ½-point underdogs. Draymond Green played extremely well in defeat, producing 21 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. Kalin Lucas was a horrendous 3-for-16 from the field and fouled out before scoring in double figures. Delvon Roe scored 16 points in the losing cause.
MSU has only lost once in nine home games this year, but it is just 3-5 ATS at Breslin Center.
Izzo dismissed Korie Lucious from the team on Tuesday due to ‘conduct detrimental to the team.” Lucious, a junior guard, was averaging 6.5 points per game. He’s best known for his buzzer-beating jumper that eliminated Maryland from last year’s NCAA Tournament in the second round.
The ‘under’ is 11-7 overall for the Spartans, 5-3 in their home assignments.
The ‘over’ has hit in four straight games for Michigan to improve to 8-6-1 overall.
The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these Big Ten adversaries.
ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga
Most books opened Gonzaga (13-7 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 150.
Gonzaga lost a 96-91 decision Saturday at San Francisco in overtime as a 10-point road ‘chalk.’ Steven Gray finished with 20 points, eight rebounds and four assists, while Demetri Goodson also scored 20 points.
Saint Mary’s (17-3 SU, 9-6 ATS) saw its 11-game winning streak snapped Saturday in Music City where Vanderbilt stroked the Gaels by an 89-70 count as a five-point home favorite. Matthew Dellavedova had 19 points, four assists and four steals in Nashville.
Saint Mary’s has an RPI of 39 even though it has only played four games against squads in the RPI Top 100. The Gaels beat St. John’s 76-71 at home in their opener (worst ‘under’ loss of my handicapping career), but they have lost to Vandy (RPI: 19), BYU (4) and San Diego State (1).
Gonzaga has won 10 of its 12 home games, posting a solid 6-3 spread record in the process.
Gonzaga has been a single-digit favorite four times, compiling a 2-2 spread record. Meanwhile, Saints Mary’s is winless in three underdog spots with a 1-2 ATS ledger.
Gonzaga had won six in a row over Saint Mary’s until the finals of the WCC Tournament last season when the Gaels captured an 81-62 win as 4 ½-point underdogs.
The ‘under’ is 11-5 overall for Gonzaga, 6-2 in its home games.
The ‘under’ is 9-6 overall for the Gaels, 4-1 in their last five outings.
Tip-off is scheduled for 11:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
vegasinsider.com.
College Basketball Knowledge
Michigan State threw Lucious off team this week; effect is unknown, as his stats aren't strong. Spartans won four in row, 10 of its last 12 against Michigan, winning last six in Izzone by 17-11-19-15-15-16 pts. Double digit favorites are 5-8 vs spread in Big 11 play, 4-6 at home. Wolverines lost last five games, scoring 59.8 ppg; they're 1-4 as a Big 11 dog.
Hofstra/VCU are tied for CAA lead; Pride won last three games, taking last game in triple OT Monday- are 4-0 on CAA road, 3-1 as CAA dog. VCU won its last seven games; they're 1-3 as CAA home fave, winning home games by 4-4-9-17 points. CAA home favorites of 7+ points are 16-8 vs spread. Hofstra lost last five visits here by 12-12-23-10-8 pts.
Kent won its last five games vs Ball State, winning last two here by 6-7 points; they've won three of last four games, are 2-1 as MAC road dog, losing by 3 at Akron, by 25 at Buffalo. MAC home favorites of 4 or less points are 4-3 vs spread. Ball State is 5-0 in MAC, 4-0-1 vs spread; its 1-0-1 as home favorite, with both wins by nine points.
Home teams won last six Vandy-Miss State games; Commodores lost last three visits here by 6-13-7 points, also lost by 10 to Bulldogs LY in SEC tourney. Vandy is 0-2 on SEC road, 0-3 as SEC favorite. Bulldogs are 3-5 in last eight games, with all five losses by 11+ points, but they're 2-1 with Boss eligible. SEC home underdogs are 6-3 against the spread.
Idaho won six of last seven games, is 3-0 on WAC road, winning by 7-8-10 points on foreign soil; they're 2-1 as WAC favorite. Louisiana Tech is 0-7 in WAC, with road team covering six of the seven; Bulldogs are 0-3 at home, losing by 7-5-8 points, but they've covered three of four as an underdog. WAC home underdogs are 2-6 against the spread.
Road team is 5-1 vs spread in Duke's ACC games; Blue Devils are 0-2 as home favorite, winning by 11-7-16 points; Duke won three in row, eight of last nine games vs Boston College, winning last three games here by 14-10-20 points. Double digit favorites are 5-3 vs spread in ACC, 3-3 at home. BC is 4-2 in ACC, losing by 16 at Florida State, 1 at Miami.
Home side won last eight USC-Arizona State games; Trojans lost four in a row in Tempe by 10-14-12-5 points. USC lost three of last four; they are 0-2 on Pac-10 road, losing by 6-4 at the Oregon schools. ASU lost its last five games, with four of the five losses by 11+ points. Pac-10 home teams are 4-7 vs spread in games where spread is four or less points.
Arizona won three of last four games vs UCLA, but beat Bruins LY in Pac-10 tourney; Bruins lost last two visits here by 12-5 points. Pac-10 home favorites of more than 7 points are 4-6-1 vs spread. Wildcats are 0-3 as Pac-10 home favorite, winning all three games by 2-10-11 points. UCLA won its last four games, holding three of four foes under 60 pts.
New Mexico State (+9.5) was 11-19 from arc but still lost 81-78 New Year's Eve in Boise, thanks to minus-7 turnover ratio; Aggies are 3-0 at home in WAC, winning by 12-18-25 points (3-0 as home fave). Boise is 5-2 in WAC, winning all three on road; four of their last six games were won by 3 or less points. WAC home faves of 4 or less points are 6-2.
Illinois won its last four games vs Indiana, winning last two here by 13-6 points; Illini lost three of last four games, losing last two on road, by 2-10 points at Penn St/Wisconsin. Hoosiers are 1-6 in Big 11, 2-3 as a dog, losing home games by 9-18 points, with win vs Michigan. Big 11 faves are 10-5 vs spread in games where spread is five or less points.
Gonzaga won six of last seven games vs St Mary's, but lost to Gaels LY in WCC tourney; Gaels lost last seven regular season trips here by 14-5-1-11-12-7-7 points. Zags got swept in Bay Area last week but are 3-0 at home in WCC, winning by 13-17-20 points. WCC home teams are 3-0 if spread is 4 or less points. St Mary's is 6-0 in WCC, but lost last game at Vanderbilt- they're 1-2 as an underdog this season.
Oregon State won three of last four games vs California, but Beavers are 1-3 in last four trips to Berkeley, with losses by 4-5-4 points. OSU lost four of last five games; they're 0-2 on Pac-10 road, losing by 14-31 on its Washington trip. Cal is favored in league for first time thie year. Pac-10 home favorites are 9-12-1 vs spread, 4-5-1 if number is 9+ points.
Iona (-2) won 100-96 in OT at Rider 13 days ago, its third straight win in series; Broncs made 13-26 from arc in game but just 11-19 on charity stripe, which hurt. Gaels are 3-0-1 as MAAC home fave, winning home games by 9-24-18-18-38 points. Rider is 4-0 on MAAC road, scoring an average of 78.8 ppg. MAAC home favorites of 6+ points are 9-3-1.