Syracuse (2-0 SU and ATS) vs. (13) California (2-0, 1-1 ATS)
(at New York)
Syracuse makes the short trek south to Madison Square Garden to battle the 13th-ranked Golden Bears in the semifinals of the 2K Sports Classic.
The Orange bounced back from a stunning preseason loss to Division II Le Moyne with a pair of blowout season-opening victories over Albany (75-43 as a 20-point home favorite) and Robert Morris (100-60 as an 18½-point home chalk). Not only did Syracuse shoot 53.3 percent from the field in the two victories, but it held both opponents to just 31.6 percent.
California survived a season-opening scare against Murray State, eking out a 75-70 win as a 13½-point home favorite on Nov. 9, then followed that with last Thursday’s 95-61 rout of Detroit as a 17-point chalk. The Bears, who are the highest-ranked Pac-10 squad this season, stumbled to the finish line last year, losing five of their final seven games, including the last three in a row.
Syracuse is on ATS runs of 11-2 overall, 5-1 in non-conference action, 5-2 at neutral sites and 4-0 when coming off a victory over more than 20 points. Cal snapped a four-game ATS funk with last week’s easy cover against Detroit, but it is still just 2-7 ATS in its last nine overall. The Bears also have failed to cover in four straight neutral-site games, but otherwise they’re on pointspread surges of 5-2 in non-conference games, 11-5 after a SU win, 9-3 after a spread-cover and 4-0 following a victory of more than 20 points.
The over is on runs of 7-1 for Syracuse overall, 13-3 for Syracuse at neutral sites, 20-7 for Syracuse after a SU win, 5-2 when Syracuse plays on Thursday, 35-16-1 for Cal overall, 13-3 for Cal at neutral sites, 4-1 for Cal in non-conference games and 22-8 when Cal plays on Thursday.
This is the first-ever meeting between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(6) North Carolina (3-0, 1-2 ATS) vs. (15) Ohio State (2-0 SU and ATS)
(at New York)
North Carolina shoots for its 10th consecutive victory overall and fourth in a row to begin this season when it takes on the Buckeyes in the semifinals of the 2K Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden.
The Tar Heels are coming off a competitive 88-77 home win over Valparaiso on Sunday, falling way short of covering as a 23-point home favorite. Going back to their 89-72 victory over Michigan State in the national championship game back in April, North Carolina has scored 89, 88, 89 and 88 points in its last four games, while allowing 72 or more in three of those contests. Since losing to Florida State in the semifinals of the ACC tournament last March, the Heels have posted nine straight double-digit victories (7-2 ATS), averaging 88 ppg while giving up 66.3 ppg.
Going back to the final game of the 2006-2007 regular season, Roy Williams’ squad is 80-8 SU. And despite losing a ton of talent to the NBA, the defending champs are shooting a blistering 57.1 percent from the field through their first three games while holding the opposition to 35.8 percent shooting.
Ohio State sprinted out of the gate with a pair of lopsided home wins over Alcorn State (100-60 as a 39-point favorite) and James Madison (72-44 as a 19-point chalk). The Buckeyes, who outshot their first two opponents by a combined 49.6 percent to 32.7 percent, bowed out in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament after losing to Purdue in the Big Ten tournament championship game. Thad Matta’s squad is just 7-6 in its last 13 games, but it has cashed in five of its last six.
These schools squared off in the ACC-Big Ten challenge in 2006 and 2007, with the Tar Heels prevailing both times by scores of 98-89 as an 8½-point home favorite and 66-55 as a 5½-point road ‘dog.
UNC possesses nothing but positive pointspread streaks, including 7-2 overall, 37-12 in non-conference play, 5-0 against the Big Ten, 5-1 on Thursday, 6-0 at neutral sites (going back to last year’s NCAA Tournament run) and 6-0 against teams with a winning record. Ohio State is on ATS rolls of 5-1 overall, 6-1 at neutral venues, 14-4 in non-league play, 4-0 after a SU win, 14-6 after a spread-cover and 6-1 on Thursday, but the Buckeyes are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight against ACC opponents.
The under is 5-2 in the Tar Heels’ last seven at neutral sites, 4-1 in their last five on Thursday, 6-2 in Ohio State’s last eight overall and 7-1 in OSU’s last eight after an outright victory.
The winner of this contest takes on the Syracuse-Cal winner in Friday’s tournament finale.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and UNDER
NCAAB News and Notes
Thursday, November 19
Long Beach State held Pepperdine to 31% from floor in Tuesday's 67-58 win; 49ers have four starters back from team that went 10-6 in Big West. Notre Dame won its first two games against stiffs; they've got two starters back from LY's 21-15 team, plus they have two good transfers.
Arizona has its fourth coach in four years and four new starters after a 21-14 year (9-9 in Pac-10); Wildcats beat N. Arizona 87-70 in opener, but lost freshman Parrom to foot injury. Rice has four starters from LYs 10-22 team back; they started this season 3-0 with win vs S. Alabama.
San Diego State got crushed late Monday night at St Mary's; Aztecs lost three starters fron 26-10 team that lost in NIT semis. Santa Clara is 2-0 but struggled to beat Cal-Bakersfield 84-81 in its opener- they lost two starters from LY's 16-17 team that went 7-7 in WCC. MWC favorites are 5-4 against the spread, 4-4 at home. WCC dogs are 4-1.
Dayton has four starters back from LY's 27-8 team (11-5 in A-14); they beat Creighton 90-80 in their opener. Georgia Tech has four starters back fron LY's 12-19 team, plus one of nation's best freshmen (Favors). ACC teams are 6-3 against spread this year. A-14 teams are 12-4 vs spread.
George Mason is very young, losing three starters from 22-11 team that went 13-5 in CAA; Patriots beat Liberty by 4, Dartmouth by 16 in 2-0 start. Villanova has three starters back from 30-8 team; they have four really good guards. Big East favorites are 8-9. CAA underdogs are 6-5.
Ole Miss has four starters back from LY's injury-wracked 16-15 team; they've got lot of depth because subs had to play so much LY. Rebels won first two games by 28-37 points. Crean is bringing Indiana back to prominence slowly; he has four starters back, plus transfer Rivers.
Tulane has three starters back from 14-17 team (7-9 in C-USA); Green Wave (+10) lost 74-58 in home opener to Georgetown. Miami beat up on couple of stiffs so far; they've got two starters back from 19-13 club that went 7-9 in ACC. C-USA underdogs are 2-4 against the spread.
NC-Wilmington has four starters back from 7-25 club that went 3-15 in CAA; Seahawks lost by 11 to Appalachian State, 5 to Geo Washington so far this month. Penn State beat Penn 70-55, then beat Robert Morris by 19 Monday. Big 11 favorites are 6-1 against the spread this season.
South Florida had good win at SMU but there were rumors on Internet yesterday of NCAA violations in Bulls' program, always a red flag for any team. Davidson lost Curry early to NBA; they lost opener by 11 at Butler. Wildcats lost three starters from LY's 27-8 team (18-2 SoCon).
South Carolina is 2-0 after beating Georgia Southern 90-66 in last game, blocking 12 shots; Gamecocks have four starters back from 21-10 team that went 10-6 in SEC. LaSalle starts five seniors, all of whom started on LY's 18-13 team (9-7 in A-14). A-14 underdogs are 4-3 vs spread.
Perimeter-based Cal starts four seniors; they can really shoot ball, are up against Syracuse 2-3 zone here. Bears were 22-11 LY, losing in 1st round of NCAAs. Syracuse is better up front; they won six-OT game here last March in Big East tourney, so they're used to playing in NYC. Cal had to play better teams (Murray State/Detroit) to get here than Syracuse.
North Carolina lost four starters from 34-4 national title team but don't feel bad for them; they're still loaded with talent. UNC shot 56% in last game but only beat Valparaiso by 11. Ohio State won its first two games by 40-28 points, but they haven't played in 8 days. UNC played Sun.
Rider (+15.5) won 88-74 at Mississippi State Friday, then beat Lehigh by 15 Monday; Broncs have four starters back from 19-13 team that went 12-6 in MAAC, whose teams are 4-2 as underdog. Virginia lost by 17 at South Florida Monday, shooting 33% from the floor. ACC home favorites are 5-2 against the spread.
Pacific won its first two games by combined total of four points; Tigers lost three starters from 21-13 team that went 10-6 in Big West. Big West teams are 8-5 vs spread this year, 2-1 as favorites. Big Sky clubs are 5-8, 3-6 as underdogs. No. Arizona lost last two games by 17-6 points.